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UNIVERSITYOF
BIRMINGHAM




              Determinants of Railway
              System Complexity and
                 their Management


                   Dr. Felix Schmid
     The University of Birmingham, in Association with
    Armitage, Harris, McKechnie, Perrow, Qurashi, Reason
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management




Typical Railways?




                                                                       UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 2         University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                 Overview of Presentation
   • What are determinants? A definition:
         – Determinants are factors or issues that have the potential to
           influence a decision, situation or context:
         – Determinants are normally co-acting, i.e., there is rarely ever
           a single determinant.
   •    A railway complexity case study;
   •    Review of railways’ natural characteristics;
   •    Managing the complexity of the railway system;
   •    A high-speed rail example of complexity management;
   •    Conclusion and discussion.
                                                                               UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 3                 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



    Background to Complexity Case Study
   • Birmingham, Manchester, Sheffield and Felix Schmid;
   • A rather basic case study:
         – The night of Friday, 7 January 2005 is dark and stormy;
         – In the morning of Saturday, 8 January 2005, the storm is still
           raging;
         – John Hebblethwaite (not his real name) is rostered to take
           the 05:11 from Sheffield to Manchester Airport and back…
         – It is his first day at work after 6 months of sick leave;
         – Events take a rather unpleasant turn for many;
         – Case study lessons for the parties involved.
   • The railway’s relationship with its competitors.
                                                                              UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 4                University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                                                   Geography of Britain
                                   Scotland
                                                 West Coast Main Line (WCML)
              Glasgow       Edinburgh


                            Carlisle

              Blackpool       Preston
               Liverpool
       Holyhead                    Sheffield
                    Crewe         Manchester
       WalesBirmingham
  Fishguard
                                                  England
                                  Rugby
              Cardiff   Bristol
                                        LONDON


Penzance
                                                                                     UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 5                       University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



              Current Roles of Felix Schmid
   • Designer and director of MSc in Railway Systems
     Engineering at University of Sheffield (1994-2008);
   • Professor of Railway Systems Integration, University
     of Birmingham (since 2005);
         – Director of Education, Birmingham Centre for Railway
           Research and Education;
         – Leader of railway systems engineering courses for industry;
         – Visiting lecturer at École Nationale des Ponts.
   • Research in railway control systems & human factors;
   • Expert on CrossRail’s systems engineering panel;
   • Consultant to MWH and Crossrail for track systems.
                                                                              UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 6                University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



   The World’s Most Wonderful Commute



                   Stockport
                                                                           Sheffield M.
                               Chinley              R2



              R1                                                              Chesterfield




                                                                         UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 7           University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



              A Functional View of Railways
                                                   A fun
                                 Standards        more ctional re
                                                       usefu       prese
                          Rules and
                                                             l than       ntatio
                         Regulations
                                                         based      a com n is
                     Laws                                       analy       pone
                                                                      sis        nt
                            Transport People
                            or Goods by Rail                 Transport Units Achieved   (TUA)
    Demand for
    Transport by                                             Transport Quality Achieved (TQA)
    Railway
                                                             Transport Value Achieved   (TVA)

                                                                                    /
                                                                              rney ry
                                                                        e jou cessa
                                                                  es, th a ne
                                     Funds
                                                                s
                         Resources &
                                                         o st ca ity is         t valu
                                                                                      e
                          Equipment
                                                    In m rt activ          eren
                     People
                                                        po           o inh
                                                   trans and of n
                                                      evil               UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 8             University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                  BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



         A ‘normal’ Train Journey to Work?
   • Friday, January, 7 January
     2005, 22.10: Forecast of
     severe gales for Saturday;
   • 8 January 2005: Leave home
     at 06.35 to cycle to station –
     in record time thanks to
     strong following wind!
   • Board 07:18 train to travel to
     work in Sheffield, the former
     home of the MSc in Railway
     Systems Engineering;
   • No problems apparent – train            A Class 158 2-car Diesel Multiple Unit
     leaves on time.                                waits to leave Piccadilly
                                                                            UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 9              University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



          A Class 323 Train of Northern Rail
   • ‘Northern Rail’ is franchise;
   • Modern type of suburban
     train found in Manchester
     and West Midlands area;
   • Largely used on regional                                    APEX

     commuter routes;                                           FRAME



   • 3-car electric multiple unit                               UPPER ARM               PANTOGRAPH
                                                                                        HEAD

     (25kV) powered by 3-phase                                    CONTROL
                                                                      ROD
     induction motors;
                                                                                             KNUCKLE

                                                                    LOWER

   • Just one single arm high-
                                                                       ARM
                                                                 RAISING
                                                                CYLINDER

     speed pantograph with low
                                                                                  AIR FEED INSULATOR
                                                                 4th BAR


     contact force;
   • ‘My’ train is diesel multiple
     unit of Class 158, built
     around 1990, still quite new.
                                                                                       AIR
                                                                             UNIVERSITYOF
                                                                                EQUIPMENT

Slide No: 10             University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23INSULATORS
                                                        BASE &               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management

               Determinant: Railway Diversity




                      The Number of distinct and
                     different sub-activities that are
                     performed within an integrated                          UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 11         system of tasks Wollongong, 2012-22-23
                           University of (McKechnie).                        BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



               Range of Railway Subsystems

                                          Electrification &            Traction &
                                                                                             Vehicle
                                          Power Supplies               Braking
                  Operations Management                                                    Structures
                                                                       Systems




                                                                                                           Maintenance System
                                                                                       Bogie
                                                    Communi-         VCS
                                          Systems
                                          Control
                                                    cations &
                                                                                    Axles & Wheels
                                                    Signalling
                                                    Systems
                                                                     CIS      Rail      ATP      Rail

                                                                            Sleepers & Ballast
                                           Station Systems
                                                                           Substructure System



                                          CIS: Customer Information Systems / VCS: Vehicle Control Systems
                                                                                                 UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 12                                 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



  Customer and Passenger Needs Diversity




                                                                  UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 13   University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



        Subsystem and Component Diversity
     • Types of Subsystems:
          –     Switches and crossings;
          –     Electrification equipment;
          –     Power supplies & substations;
VH        –     Train control and signalling;
          –     Rolling stock and traction.
H    • Component variety:
          –     Steel and concrete structures;
M         –     Microprocessors;
          –     Sensors and effectors;
L         –     Thyristors, GTOs, IGBTs;
          –




                                                                                                       Williams, ORR, 2006
                Precision mechanical systems;
          –     Electrical machines.
     • Issue raised by McKechnie
       as ‘heterogeneïty’.
                                                                                      UNIVERSITYOF
 Slide No: 14                      University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
UNIVERSITYOF
BIRMINGHAM




          Railway are Diverse or
          Heterogenous Systems
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



     158 motors to Stockport and all is well
                                                    & some nice OHLE too!




          A useful facing crossover!
                                                                              UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 16               University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



    On Time in Stockport, depart after 60 s

Stockport Viaduct
on Normal Route




                                                                 Edgeley Side of
                                                                    UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 17        University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23
                                                                      Stockport
                                                                    BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management

               Determinant: Railway Dispersion




                      Extent to which assets, resources and
                      people required for correct operation
                      of system are distributed over a large                 UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 18             area / along corridors (Schmid)
                           University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23              BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                      Dispersion and Linearity
   • Linear infrastructures:
         – 10 m wide and 1000s km long;
         – Great impacts on environment;
         – Environmental impact varies.
   • Distributed assets:
         – Assets difficult to reach;
         – Assets difficult to maintain;
         – Assets difficult to control.
   • Dispersed staff:
         –     Supervision vs. management;
         –     Management only long term;
         –     Supervision must be strong;
         –     Fast decision taking locally.
   • Issue raised by Schmid.

                                                                                     UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 19                      University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



    Major Structures to cope with Linearity




                                                                   UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 20    University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



        Classic Example of Dispersion Issue


VH


H


M


L




                                                                      UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 21       University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
UNIVERSITYOF
BIRMINGHAM




           Railways are Long and
          Thin – they are Dispersed
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



     Turn off towards Buxton and Sheffield


                                                                                 1997

               1967
                                       2008

                                                                        2004




                      1850 to 1895                                           UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 23              University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management

      A Difficult Issue: Asset Life Diversity




                 The extent to which assets of
                  widely differing ages must
                 work together to achieve the                            UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 24    purpose of a system (Schmid).
                     University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



     Asset Life Diversity: 1 day to 200 Years
     • Long life railway assets:
          – Cuttings, embankments;
          – Culverts, bridges, viaducts,
            flyovers, dive-unders, tunnels;
          – Stations, offices, depots.
VH
     • Medium life railway assets:
H         – Tracks, rails and signals;
          – Locos, carriages, ferries;
M         – Wagons, track machines,
     • Short lived railway assets:
L         – Ticket machines, ticket gates;
          – Computers, cars and trucks;
          – Staff uniforms and hand-tools.
     • Issue raised by Armitage.

                                                                                   UNIVERSITYOF
 Slide No: 25                   University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
UNIVERSITYOF
BIRMINGHAM




          We are using Assets that
          were created between just
            5 and 160 Years ago
UNIVERSITYOF
BIRMINGHAM




            We are still on our
           winter journey from
          Manchester to Sheffield
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



      In Theory, it’s only 6 Mins to Chinley
  ‘Slow’ Route from New Mills
 joins from left, ‘stopper’ waiting




                                                 … and ‘stopper’ still waiting

                                                                            UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 28             University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



     Sadly, that’s not what happened on the
       stormy Saturday, 8 January 2005

                                                                  A Level Crossing




Woodsmoor
Station
               There are 7500 of                                        UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 29                                                            BIRMINGHAM
               these in Britain
                   University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management

         Determinant: Nature of Interactions




                 Way in which subsystems and
                 activities relate to each other
                 during normal and disturbed                            UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 30
                   operations of Wollongong, 2012-22-23
                     University (after Perrow)                          BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



               ‘Complex’ Interactions (Perrow)
   • Linear Interactions:
         –     Segregated subsystems;
         –     Easy substitutions;
         –     Few feedback loops;
         –     Single purpose, separate controls;
         –     Direct information;
         –     Extensive understanding.
   • ‘Complex’ interactions:
         – Parts and units not in a production
           sequence are close together;
         – Unfamiliar or unintended
           feedback loops;
         – Indirect or inferential information
           sources;
         – Limited understanding of some
           processes.

                                                                                       UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 31                        University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



      Life is not always easy for railways…




                                                                    UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 32     University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



               Linear vs. ‘Complex’ Interactions
    • Railway interactions:
         –     Train sequences;
         –     Conflicts at junctions;
         –     Passenger behaviour;
C        –     Staff behaviour;
         –     Trespass and vandalism.
    • Maintenance activities:
         – Rolling stock and track;
N        – Structures and stations.
    • System control:
         – Management of nodes;
         – Staff allocation to duties;
L        – Rolling stock schedules.
    • Issue raised by Perrow.

                                                                                    UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 33                     University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



    The Train stops at Woodsmoor at 07:34



                          Woodsmoor
                                                                         Sheffield M.
                             Chinley              R2



               R1                                                           Chesterfield




                                                                       UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 34        University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



     … and conductor provides information
   • We are stuck behind a Class 323 without a pantograph:
         –     Branch of a tree had broken off and was foul of OHLE;
         –     First electric train of the morning (in the dark) hit branch;
         –     Pantograph and branch combine to break droppers;
         –     Pantograph disintegrates – no power.
   • Class 158 is hemmed-in, in both directions:
         – Class 323 ahead without power is unable to move;
         – Level crossing behind train only strikes-in in one direction;
         – The cross-overs of Hazel Grove are beyond the 323.
   • Access is near impossible due to housing and gardens.
                                                                                   UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 35                    University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



         Let’s Look at the Situation in Detail




                                                            Rather than here, at Hazel Grove
                                      Failed
                                      Train
                                      Here



  Platform at Woodsmoor


                                                                                               UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 36         University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                                      BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management


            Many Subsystems and Interfaces

                                                  Electrification &            Traction &
                                                                                                     Vehicle
                                                  Power Supplies               Braking             Structures
          Third Parties

                          Operations Management
                                                                               Systems




                                                                                                                   Maintenance System
                                                                                               Bogies
                                                            Communi-         VCS
                                                  Systems
                                                  Control
                                                            cations &
                                                                                            Axles & Wheels
                                                            Signalling
                                                            Systems
                                                                             CIS      Rail      ATP      Rail

                                                                                    Sleepers & Ballast
                                                   Station Systems
                                                                                   Substructure System



                                                  CIS: Customer Information Systems / VCS: Vehicle Control Systems
                                                                                                         UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 37                                         University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management

   Interfaces: Strength of System Coupling




                 Extent to which two components or
                activities must be linked to achieve an
                                                                       UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 38   appropriate performance (after Perrow).
                     University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23              BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



         Loose Coupling vs. Tight Coupling
   • Loose Coupling (process and technical):
         –     Processing delays possible;
         –     Sequence & order can be changed;
         –     Alternative methods available;
         –     Slack in resources possible;
         –     Buffers and redundancies are fortuitously always available.
   • Tight Coupling (process and technical):
         –     Time-dependent behaviour, i.e., delays in processing not possible;
         –     Invariant sequencing;
         –     Only one method to achieve goal;
         –     Little slack available;
         –     Buffers and redundancies must be designed in as part of the system.
   • Issue raised by Perrow.

                                                                                     UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 39                      University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



      Tightly Coupled Mechanical Systems
   • Wheel and rail interface:
         – Steel on steel stiffness;
         – Motion control by conicity;
         – Traction and braking with
           small contact area;
         – Track held by ballast.
   • Pantograph and overhead:
         – Overhead relative to rails;
         – Low contact force limits wear;
   • Switches and crossings:
         – Accurate mechanisms needed;
         – Must be locked for trains.

                                                                                 UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 40                  University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



     Railways are Tightly Coupled Systems
    • Single degree of freedom of movement of rolling stock
      requires infrastructure with variable geometry;
    • Limited adhesion requires train control and signalling;
T
    • Stiffness of wheel / rail interface requires accurate
      infrastructure and high quality maintenance;
    • Linear (distributed) nature of the railway infrastructure
      propagates failures and is open to environmental
L
      influences;
    • Need for reliable timetabled operation and good
      resource management;
    • Interface and interaction management is essential.
                                                                          UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 41           University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                    Charles Perrow 1999
   • “[S]ystems are not linear or complex, strictly speaking,
     only their interactions are. Even here we must recall
     that linear systems have very few complex
     interactions, while complex ones have more linear
     ones, but complex interactions are still few in number”

   • This is often referred to as ‘Interactive Complexity’:
         – Do we prefer linear or complex systems?
         – Do we prefer loose or tight coupling?
   • Unfortunately, some systems have to be interactively
     complex and tightly coupled by their nature!
                                                                             UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 42              University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



         System Dimensions and Industries
           Interaction / Coupling Chart

                                            Tight Coupling
                  dams                                                    nuclear
                                  power                 railways >>        plant
                                  grids                 DNA
                                                                          nuclear
                                                                          weapons

              Linear
            Interaction                                                           Complex
                                                                                 Interaction

                assembly-line
                production                            mining
                                                                          R&D firms
                         simple-goal
                         agencies               Loose
                                               Coupling
                                                                                        UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 43 Adapted   from Perrow,University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23
                                    1999:97                                             BIRMINGHAM
UNIVERSITYOF
BIRMINGHAM




          After 20 minutes, Felix
          ‘jumps ship’, illegally
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



   There was another Route to Sheffield…



                       R3
                                                                         Sheffield M.
                             Chinley              R2



               R1                                                           Chesterfield




                                                                       UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 45        University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
UNIVERSITYOF
BIRMINGHAM




           But the Driver’s Route
           Knowledge had Lapsed,
          due to the Sickness Leave
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



    Consequences of just a few Mistakes
  • Consequences for the passengers on the Class 158:
      – 07:18 should have arrived in Sheffield at 08:09 but, instead,
        reaches South Yorkshire at 10:53;
      – Felix arrives in Sheffield at 10:10 on the 09:18 and is in the
        University 10 minutes before his lecture;
      – Most passengers have had to wait for 150 minutes without
        decent information – coming from an airport;
      – Passengers bound elsewhere have missed connections;
      – Railway has lost a lot of goodwill.
  • Network Rail and TOC B share ca. £100,000 cost of
    delay penalties – both had made serious mistakes.
                                                               UNIVERSITY
Slide No: 47
            … but Felix has acquired a really excellent case-study!
                          University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
                                                                                            OF
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                         Case Study Lessons I
   • Accumulation of minor mistakes and failures can lead
     to a collapse in any tightly coupled (transport) system:
         – Single degree of freedom of motion of rolling stock:
               • Railway requires points;
         – Limited adhesion and thus inability to drive by line of sight:
               • Railway requires signalling and formal (level) crossings;
         – Stiff interface requiring highly performing maintenance:
               • Minimise scale of infrastructure to limit cost;
         – Linear nature of railway increases management difficulty:
               • Reduces ability to control and intervene;
         – Operational characteristics require adherence to timetable.
   • Organisational structure of system affects outcomes.
                                                                                    UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 48                     University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                    Case Study Lessons II
   • Impact of natural characteristics of rail mode of
     transport:
         – Route learning failure (driver should not have resumed work
           without it);
         – Train design failure (two pantographs would have
           minimised knock-on delays);
         – Control and supervision failure (better management and
           early intervention);
         – Infrastructure and signalling inadequacies (no capability for
           reversal or overtaking of failed train);
         – (Environmental) unpredictability not factored in.
   • The railway does not forgive mistakes!
                                                                              UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 49               University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management

               Determinant: Railway Variability




                      Extent to which tasks must
                       depart from a constantly
                       recurring simple pattern                              UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 50                (McKechnie).
                         University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                                      Not enough Variability to cause Trouble
Photograph Courtesy Keeping Track Image Library




                                                                                                      UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 51                                       University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



   Too much Variability to cause Trouble?
               Photographs Courtesy North Sout Railway




                                                                                                            UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 52                                             University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



               External and Internal Variability
     • External variability:
         –     Operational impact of weather;
         –     Demand variation;
         –     Economic cycle impact;
VH       –     Stakeholder vacillation;
         –     Subsidy regime variation;
H        –     Impact of connecting services;
         –     Third party behaviour.
M    • Internal variability:
         –     Variable passenger behaviour;
L        –     Variable staff performance;
         –     Variable wheel-rail adhesion;
         –     Spontaneous system failures;
     • Issue raised by McKechnie.

                                                                                    UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 53                     University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
UNIVERSITYOF
BIRMINGHAM




               Railways Operate in a
                  Highly Variable
                   Environment

          Physically, Operationally and
                Organisationally
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management

 And here it is: The Butterfly of Railway Complexity




                Le Papillon de la Complexité
                         Ferroviaire
               Der Komplexitätsschmetterling                            UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 55        University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23
                     des Systems Bahn                                   BIRMINGHAM
UNIVERSITYOF
BIRMINGHAM




               A Slightly Different
                   Perspective
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                Regulations and Standards Issue
     • Tools to control complexity?
     • Intricate legal framework:




                                                                                           !
                                                                                         RS
E         – Interoperability regulations;




                                                                                       EA
          – Technical Specifications for
            Interoperability;




                                                                                     5Y
VH
          – Road traffic regulations;




                                                                                 R
          – National health and safety law;




                                                                               TE
H
          – European rail safety law.




                                                                             AF
M    • Intricate standards system:




                                                                            TE
          –     CEN Standards;




                                                                          DA
L         –     UIC ‘standards’;




                                                                   OF
          –     National regulations;
          –     Internal standards.
                                                                T
     • Issue raised by Qurashi.                               OU

                                                                                      UNIVERSITYOF
 Slide No: 57                      University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management
Five Dimensions of Complexity
                Variability                  Ve
                                                ry          ?
                               McKechnie           S                                        hor
                                                                                               t
                                                  gh
                                              y Hi                                Sh
                                                                                    ort
                                          r
                                        Ve
  Water                                              gh                   Me
                                                   Hi                       diu
  Rail                                                                            m
  Nuclear                                                    m
                                                          diu




                                                                                                                       Very High
                                                       Me                Hig




                                                                                                   Medium
                                                                            h
                                                                    w




                                                                                                                High
                                                                                      Low
                                                                 Lo
Regulations                                                                                                                        Diversity
                                                                                                                                       Various
& Standards

                                                                 Low
                                        High
                            Very High




                                                    Medium
               Excessive!




Qureshi
                                                                          Low     Low

                                                                                             um
                                                                                        Medi
                                                                       Me
                                                                         diu
                                                                            m                    h
                                                                                              Hig
                                                                 Hig
                                                                     h                                            h
                                                                                                            ry Hig
                                                                                                   Ve
                                                             Ver
                                                                yH
                                                                  igh
                                Dispersion                                                            Interdependence
                                Schmid                                                                             UNIVERSITYOF
                                                                                                        Perrow and McKechnie
Slide No: 58                                   University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                                    BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



        What Core Issue have we forgotten?

                                                                                      b le
                                                                                  s ha
                                                                          P eri
                                                                  RY
                                                             e VE
                                                        ar
                                                     ay
                                                  ilw
                                             Ra
                                       f the
                              c ts o
                         du
                     Pr o
               The

                                                                                      UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 59                      University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                BIRMINGHAM
Six Dimensions of Complexity Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management
                               Variability                                        Ve
                                                                                     ry                 Product Life
                               McKechnie                                                  Sh
                                                                                             ort                       Harris
                                                  gh
                                              y Hi                                 Sh
                                                                                      ort
                                          r
                                        Ve
  Water                                              gh                   Me
                                                   Hi                        di   um
  Rail
  Nuclear                                                    m
                                                          diu




                                                                                                                       Very High
                                                       Me                Hig




                                                                                                   Medium
                                                                             h
                                                                    w




                                                                                                                High
                                                                                       Low
                                                                 Lo
Regulations                                                                                                                        Diversity
                                                                                                                                       Various
& Standards

                                                                 Low
                                        High
                            Very High




                                                    Medium
               Excessive!




Qurashi
                                                                          Low      Low

                                                                                               um
                                                                                          Medi
                                                                       Me
                                                                         diu
                                                                            m                   h
                                                                                             Hig
                                                                 Hig
                                                                     h                                            h
                                                                                                            ry Hig
                                                                                                   Ve
                                                             Ver
                                                                yH
                                                                  igh
                                Dispersion                                                            Interdependence
                                Schmid                                                                             UNIVERSITYOF
                                                                                                        Perrow and McKechnie
Slide No: 60                                   University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                                    BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



       Summary of Complexity Determinants
   •    Level of Variability:
         – Affects extent to which tasks must depart from simple recurring patterns.
   •    Level of Diversity (heterogeneity):
         – Relates to number of distinct and different sub-activities that must be
           performed within an integrated system of tasks;
         – Affects extent to which assets and processes exist beyond normal
           planning and management horizons.
   •    Level of Interdependence (tight coupling / intensive interactions):
         – Extent to which performance of a system, as a whole, is reliant on and
           facilitated by exchanges of information to co-ordinate individual tasks.
   •    Level of Dispersion and Linearity:
         – Extent to which assets, resources and people contributing to correct
           operation of system are distributed over a large area / along corridors.
   •    Regulations and Standards:
         – Extent to which activities are regulated by governments and other
           bodies.                                                       UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 61                  University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



       Physical Characteristics of Rail Mode
 Characteristic →    Motion restricted to single            Low coefficient of friction    Stiff interface between wheels        Distributed linear infra-
 ↓ Aspects          degree of freedom along track            between wheels and rails                  and rails                  structure subsystem
 Strengths      G   •   No steering required;           •   Low rolling resistance;        •   Low energy dissipation;        • Product reaches customer;
                    •   Predictable motion;             •   Low rolling surfaces wear;     •   High tonnages / period;        • Production process controll-
                    •   Narrow swept path;              •   Efficient propulsion;          •   Low forces in track bed;         able throughout system;
                    •   Linked consists (trains);       •   High speed operation;          •   Predictable motion;            • External events rarely affect
                    •   High standard of safety.        •   Energy efficiency.             •   Smooth operations;               all of system;
                                                                                           •   Potentially long track life.   • Part opening of new
                                                                                                                                systems.
                E   • Track-based power supply.         • Energy recovery potential.       • Low wheel-rail damping.          • Multiple feeder options.
 Weaknesses     G   •   Guidance function cost;         •   Limited braking rate;          •   Stiff rolling interface;       • Environmental impact
                    •   High route blockage risk;       •   Low acceleration rate;         •   Low inherent damping;            affects linear strips of
                    •   Low network flexibility;        •   Seasonal adhesion variation;   •   Noise & vibration issues         terrain;
                    •   Complex route changes;          •   Line of sight inadequate;      •   Cost of track & structures;    • Remote management of
                    •   No collision avoidance.         •   Low rolling surface wear.      •   Cost of inspection.              local problems difficult.
                E   • Complex electrification;          • Risk of slip and slide;          • High impact environment          • Voltage drop along route;
                    • Limited design options.           • Torque control required.           for traction drives.             • Many supply points needed.
 Technical      G   •   Variable geometry elements;     •   Signalling system;             •   Load rack design;              • Provision of redundancy;
 requirements       •   Train position detection;       •   Adhesion control;              •   Testing & inspection;          • Protective features (tunnels,
                    •   Locking of route elements;      •   Artificial wear required;      •   Accurate maintenance;            galleries, fences etc.).
                    •   Junctions & stations.           •   Regular maintenance.           •   Regular maintenance.
 Operational    G   • Timetabling & planning;           • Path allocation to trains;       • Strong procedures.               • Scheduling of services;
 requirements       • Strict rulebook for all staff.    • Stringent safety rules.                                             • Several layers of control.
 Management     G   • Rigorous selection of staff;      • Simulation of individual         • Maintenance management;          • Delegated authority;
 tools              • Modelling of train services.        train behaviour.                 • Technical understanding.         • Strong supervision.
 Training       G   • Responsibility;                   • Environmental awareness;         • Strong engineering skills;       • Rule based behaviour;
                    • Staff competence.                 • Safety ethos.                    • Safety ethos.                    • Adaptive behaviour.
                                                                                                                                   UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 62                                           University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                                        BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



          Railways have Strong Competitors

                                           Constraints / Controls
                                           Timetable, Management Systems

                     Road Transport
                     Demand                                                        Transport
                                                                                    Product




                                                                                               Profit?
         Transport   Rail Transport            Transport Goods
         Demand      Demand                    & People by Rail                     Service
                                                                                    Quality
                     Air Transport
                     Demand
                                          Mechanisms / Processors
                     Waterways            People, Rolling Stock, Infrastructure,
                     Demand                    Power, Supplies, Finance




                                                                                    UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 63              University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                      BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



        How can we Design better Systems?
   • Understand better the purpose of systems:
         – Identify stakeholder requirements;
         – Make stakeholder requirements measurable.
   • Understand better the functions that satisfy purpose:
         – Identify system functionality and architecture;
         – Identify necessary subsystems and their functions.
   • Understand better the interfaces between subsystems:
         – Identify links and relationships between functions.
   • Understand fully the interactions between subsystems:
         – Define limits to the interactions;
         – Monitor the interactions.
                                                                               UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 64                University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
UNIVERSITYOF
BIRMINGHAM




           It’s a Complex System:
            Let’s apply (Railway)
            Systems Engineering
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



   Rail Systems Engineering & Integration
   • Railway Systems Engineering and Integration (RSEI) is
     concerned with:
         – Managing the people, resources and processes required to conceive,
           design, build, operate, maintain, renew, close and decommission
           railways of all types;
         – Respecting the limits and constraints imposed by the natural physical,
           organisational and operational characteristics of the rail mode, in an
           effective and efficient manner;
         – Satisfying the system’s stakeholders and environmental concerns.
   • RSEI is not just about technologies, components, interfaces,
     know-how and processes;
   • RSEI is about developing people to carry out their tasks better
     and more effectively, while respecting the constraints of a
     highly complex technical and organisational system.
   • ‘Integration’ goes beyond systems engineering…
                                                                                  UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 66                   University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



               History of Systems Engineering
                          © Brian Halliday, Network Rail

       1950        1960        1970              1980             1990           2000




        Products                 Software                                 Projects
                                                                              UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 67               University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



      Systems Engineering Responsibilities
   • Requirements Management:
         – Requirements elicitation and requirements management;
         – Definition of system and subsystem specifications.
   • Performance and Technical Risk:
         – Modelling of operational performance;
         – Evaluation of robustness of technical options.
   • Cost and Capability:
         – Development of optimised system options;
         – Human, equipment and operations integration.
   • Quality Systems Design:
         – Creation of quality management systems.
   • Configuration Management:
         – Provision and control of asset information;
         – Development of configuration management systems.
                                                                                  UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 68                   University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management
                      Typical Systems Engineering VEE Process
        Conceive and                                  Concept of Operation                                  Need for a New
       Select Solution                                                                                     Function / System



        Capture Stakeholder                                                                            Commission into
          Requirements                                                                                 Service Operation




                      Develop System                Define Validation Plan                 Test Whole System
                       Specification                                                         Functionality
   De
      fin




                                                                                                                          n
                                                                                                                     tio
          it
        ion




                                                                                                                    da
                              Design and Develop      Define Test Plans           Integrate System
           ,D




                                                                                                                     li
                                                                                                                  Va
                              System Architecture                                   Components
             eco




                                                                                                               &
               mp




                                                                                                           ing
                  osi t




                                                                                                             st
                                                                                                          Te
                    i on




                                       Develop Components    Test        Test Components




                                                                                                       n,
                      &




                                                                                                     tio
                                         and Subsystems      Plans       and Subsystems
                          Ve




                                                                                                     ra
                             ri




                                                                                                 teg
                            fi c




                                                                                               In
                                a ti
                                  on




                                                        Source or Produce
                                                       System Components

                                                                                                           UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 69                                          Project Time Line
                                                University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                       BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management
                      Typical Systems Engineering VEE Process
        Conceive and                                  Concept of Operation                                    Requirement
       Select Solution                                                                                         Satisfied



        Capture Stakeholder                                                                            Commission into
          Requirements                                                                                 Service Operation




                      Develop System                Define Validation Plan                 Test Whole System
                       Specification                                                         Functionality
   De
      fin




                                                                                                                          n
                                                                                                                     tio
          it
        ion




                                                                                                                    da
                              Design and Develop      Define Test Plans           Integrate System
           ,D




                                                                                                                     li
                                                                                                                  Va
                              System Architecture                                   Components
             eco




                                                                                                               &
               mp




                                                                                                           ing
                  osi t




                                                                                                             st
                                                                                                          Te
                    i on




                                       Develop Components    Test        Test Components




                                                                                                       n,
                      &




                                                                                                     tio
                                         and Subsystems      Plans       and Subsystems
                          Ve




                                                                                                     ra
                             ri




                                                                                                 teg
                            fi c




                                                                                               In
                                a ti
                                  on




                                                        Source or Produce
                                                       System Components

                                                                                                           UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 70                                          Project Time Line
                                                University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                       BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



               Purpose of VEE Process in SE&I
   • Ensures structured approach to projects;
   • Assists robust requirements capture and maintenance;
   • Ensures clear staging of projects:
         –     Allows establishment of stage gates;
         –     Allows monitoring of time line;
         –     Encourages closing out of issues;
         –     Encourages management of prevarication.
   • Encourages thinking ahead to later stages;
   • Ensures robust verification and validation;
   • Assists robust configuration management:
         – Reduction of modification effort and rework.
                                                                                 UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 71                  University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                          Why do projects fail?

                             Other
                             23%                                                             Lack of User Input
                                                                                                    13%

                                                                                                 Incomplete
                                                   Require-                                         12%
                Technology                          ments
                                                                                                  Changing
                   11%                               48%
                                                                                                    12%
               Unrealistic Time                                                                  Unrealistic
                     4%                                                                             6%
                       Inadequate                                                                  Unclear
                        Resources                                                                    5%
                           6%        Lack of Executive
                                         Support
                                             8%        Standish CHAOS report, 1995, http://standishgroup.com/visitor/chaos.htm

                                                                                                           UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 72                         University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                                  BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                                          What goes wrong?
         50%



         40%



         30%



         20%



         10%



          0%
                  Incorrect facts             Omissions              Inconsistency     Ambiguity       Misallocation

   Leffingwell, http://www.rational.com/media/whitepapers/roi1.pdf
                                                                                                               UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 73                                        University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                       BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                                   How much does it cost to fix?
                                 250
                                                                                                                     200
                                 200
          Relative Cost to Fix




                                 150


                                 100
                                                                                                       50

                                 50
                                                                                           20
                                               1           5               10

                                   0
                                       Requirements   Design           Build        Test        Commissioning   Operation

                                                      Lifecycle Phase when Error Discovered

    Leffingwell, http://www.rational.com/media/whitepapers/roi1.pdf                                                UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 74                                             University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23                      BIRMINGHAM
Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management



                             Conclusion
   • Natural characteristics of rail mode are constraining;
   • Railways are fundamentally different from other
     modes of transport and service industries;
   • Rail mode is inherently complex:
         – Technologically, organisationally and operationally;
         – Project delivery and safety management.
   • Stakeholders often have conflicting requirements and
     contradictory agendas;
   • VEE project life-cycle can be helpful in major projects
     but requires strong PM who imposes stop criteria!
                                                                              UNIVERSITYOF
Slide No: 75               University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23               BIRMINGHAM
UNIVERSITYOF
BIRMINGHAM




          Railways perform well
         when they observe a robust
           and efficient timetable

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SMART Seminar Series: Railway Systems Complexity and Management

  • 1. UNIVERSITYOF BIRMINGHAM Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Dr. Felix Schmid The University of Birmingham, in Association with Armitage, Harris, McKechnie, Perrow, Qurashi, Reason
  • 2. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Typical Railways? UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 2 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 3. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Overview of Presentation • What are determinants? A definition: – Determinants are factors or issues that have the potential to influence a decision, situation or context: – Determinants are normally co-acting, i.e., there is rarely ever a single determinant. • A railway complexity case study; • Review of railways’ natural characteristics; • Managing the complexity of the railway system; • A high-speed rail example of complexity management; • Conclusion and discussion. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 3 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 4. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Background to Complexity Case Study • Birmingham, Manchester, Sheffield and Felix Schmid; • A rather basic case study: – The night of Friday, 7 January 2005 is dark and stormy; – In the morning of Saturday, 8 January 2005, the storm is still raging; – John Hebblethwaite (not his real name) is rostered to take the 05:11 from Sheffield to Manchester Airport and back… – It is his first day at work after 6 months of sick leave; – Events take a rather unpleasant turn for many; – Case study lessons for the parties involved. • The railway’s relationship with its competitors. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 4 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 5. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Geography of Britain Scotland West Coast Main Line (WCML) Glasgow Edinburgh Carlisle Blackpool Preston Liverpool Holyhead Sheffield Crewe Manchester WalesBirmingham Fishguard England Rugby Cardiff Bristol LONDON Penzance UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 5 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 6. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Current Roles of Felix Schmid • Designer and director of MSc in Railway Systems Engineering at University of Sheffield (1994-2008); • Professor of Railway Systems Integration, University of Birmingham (since 2005); – Director of Education, Birmingham Centre for Railway Research and Education; – Leader of railway systems engineering courses for industry; – Visiting lecturer at École Nationale des Ponts. • Research in railway control systems & human factors; • Expert on CrossRail’s systems engineering panel; • Consultant to MWH and Crossrail for track systems. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 6 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 7. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management The World’s Most Wonderful Commute Stockport Sheffield M. Chinley R2 R1 Chesterfield UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 7 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 8. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management A Functional View of Railways A fun Standards more ctional re usefu prese Rules and l than ntatio Regulations based a com n is Laws analy pone sis nt Transport People or Goods by Rail Transport Units Achieved (TUA) Demand for Transport by Transport Quality Achieved (TQA) Railway Transport Value Achieved (TVA) / rney ry e jou cessa es, th a ne Funds s Resources & o st ca ity is t valu e Equipment In m rt activ eren People po o inh trans and of n evil UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 8 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 9. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management A ‘normal’ Train Journey to Work? • Friday, January, 7 January 2005, 22.10: Forecast of severe gales for Saturday; • 8 January 2005: Leave home at 06.35 to cycle to station – in record time thanks to strong following wind! • Board 07:18 train to travel to work in Sheffield, the former home of the MSc in Railway Systems Engineering; • No problems apparent – train A Class 158 2-car Diesel Multiple Unit leaves on time. waits to leave Piccadilly UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 9 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 10. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management A Class 323 Train of Northern Rail • ‘Northern Rail’ is franchise; • Modern type of suburban train found in Manchester and West Midlands area; • Largely used on regional APEX commuter routes; FRAME • 3-car electric multiple unit UPPER ARM PANTOGRAPH HEAD (25kV) powered by 3-phase CONTROL ROD induction motors; KNUCKLE LOWER • Just one single arm high- ARM RAISING CYLINDER speed pantograph with low AIR FEED INSULATOR 4th BAR contact force; • ‘My’ train is diesel multiple unit of Class 158, built around 1990, still quite new. AIR UNIVERSITYOF EQUIPMENT Slide No: 10 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23INSULATORS BASE & BIRMINGHAM
  • 11. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Determinant: Railway Diversity The Number of distinct and different sub-activities that are performed within an integrated UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 11 system of tasks Wollongong, 2012-22-23 University of (McKechnie). BIRMINGHAM
  • 12. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Range of Railway Subsystems Electrification & Traction & Vehicle Power Supplies Braking Operations Management Structures Systems Maintenance System Bogie Communi- VCS Systems Control cations & Axles & Wheels Signalling Systems CIS Rail ATP Rail Sleepers & Ballast Station Systems Substructure System CIS: Customer Information Systems / VCS: Vehicle Control Systems UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 12 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 13. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Customer and Passenger Needs Diversity UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 13 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 14. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Subsystem and Component Diversity • Types of Subsystems: – Switches and crossings; – Electrification equipment; – Power supplies & substations; VH – Train control and signalling; – Rolling stock and traction. H • Component variety: – Steel and concrete structures; M – Microprocessors; – Sensors and effectors; L – Thyristors, GTOs, IGBTs; – Williams, ORR, 2006 Precision mechanical systems; – Electrical machines. • Issue raised by McKechnie as ‘heterogeneïty’. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 14 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 15. UNIVERSITYOF BIRMINGHAM Railway are Diverse or Heterogenous Systems
  • 16. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management 158 motors to Stockport and all is well & some nice OHLE too! A useful facing crossover! UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 16 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 17. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management On Time in Stockport, depart after 60 s Stockport Viaduct on Normal Route Edgeley Side of UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 17 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 Stockport BIRMINGHAM
  • 18. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Determinant: Railway Dispersion Extent to which assets, resources and people required for correct operation of system are distributed over a large UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 18 area / along corridors (Schmid) University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 19. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Dispersion and Linearity • Linear infrastructures: – 10 m wide and 1000s km long; – Great impacts on environment; – Environmental impact varies. • Distributed assets: – Assets difficult to reach; – Assets difficult to maintain; – Assets difficult to control. • Dispersed staff: – Supervision vs. management; – Management only long term; – Supervision must be strong; – Fast decision taking locally. • Issue raised by Schmid. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 19 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 20. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Major Structures to cope with Linearity UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 20 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 21. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Classic Example of Dispersion Issue VH H M L UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 21 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 22. UNIVERSITYOF BIRMINGHAM Railways are Long and Thin – they are Dispersed
  • 23. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Turn off towards Buxton and Sheffield 1997 1967 2008 2004 1850 to 1895 UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 23 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 24. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management A Difficult Issue: Asset Life Diversity The extent to which assets of widely differing ages must work together to achieve the UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 24 purpose of a system (Schmid). University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 25. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Asset Life Diversity: 1 day to 200 Years • Long life railway assets: – Cuttings, embankments; – Culverts, bridges, viaducts, flyovers, dive-unders, tunnels; – Stations, offices, depots. VH • Medium life railway assets: H – Tracks, rails and signals; – Locos, carriages, ferries; M – Wagons, track machines, • Short lived railway assets: L – Ticket machines, ticket gates; – Computers, cars and trucks; – Staff uniforms and hand-tools. • Issue raised by Armitage. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 25 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 26. UNIVERSITYOF BIRMINGHAM We are using Assets that were created between just 5 and 160 Years ago
  • 27. UNIVERSITYOF BIRMINGHAM We are still on our winter journey from Manchester to Sheffield
  • 28. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management In Theory, it’s only 6 Mins to Chinley ‘Slow’ Route from New Mills joins from left, ‘stopper’ waiting … and ‘stopper’ still waiting UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 28 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 29. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Sadly, that’s not what happened on the stormy Saturday, 8 January 2005 A Level Crossing Woodsmoor Station There are 7500 of UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 29 BIRMINGHAM these in Britain University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23
  • 30. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Determinant: Nature of Interactions Way in which subsystems and activities relate to each other during normal and disturbed UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 30 operations of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 University (after Perrow) BIRMINGHAM
  • 31. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management ‘Complex’ Interactions (Perrow) • Linear Interactions: – Segregated subsystems; – Easy substitutions; – Few feedback loops; – Single purpose, separate controls; – Direct information; – Extensive understanding. • ‘Complex’ interactions: – Parts and units not in a production sequence are close together; – Unfamiliar or unintended feedback loops; – Indirect or inferential information sources; – Limited understanding of some processes. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 31 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 32. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Life is not always easy for railways… UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 32 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 33. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Linear vs. ‘Complex’ Interactions • Railway interactions: – Train sequences; – Conflicts at junctions; – Passenger behaviour; C – Staff behaviour; – Trespass and vandalism. • Maintenance activities: – Rolling stock and track; N – Structures and stations. • System control: – Management of nodes; – Staff allocation to duties; L – Rolling stock schedules. • Issue raised by Perrow. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 33 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 34. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management The Train stops at Woodsmoor at 07:34 Woodsmoor Sheffield M. Chinley R2 R1 Chesterfield UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 34 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 35. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management … and conductor provides information • We are stuck behind a Class 323 without a pantograph: – Branch of a tree had broken off and was foul of OHLE; – First electric train of the morning (in the dark) hit branch; – Pantograph and branch combine to break droppers; – Pantograph disintegrates – no power. • Class 158 is hemmed-in, in both directions: – Class 323 ahead without power is unable to move; – Level crossing behind train only strikes-in in one direction; – The cross-overs of Hazel Grove are beyond the 323. • Access is near impossible due to housing and gardens. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 35 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 36. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Let’s Look at the Situation in Detail Rather than here, at Hazel Grove Failed Train Here Platform at Woodsmoor UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 36 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 37. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Many Subsystems and Interfaces Electrification & Traction & Vehicle Power Supplies Braking Structures Third Parties Operations Management Systems Maintenance System Bogies Communi- VCS Systems Control cations & Axles & Wheels Signalling Systems CIS Rail ATP Rail Sleepers & Ballast Station Systems Substructure System CIS: Customer Information Systems / VCS: Vehicle Control Systems UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 37 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 38. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Interfaces: Strength of System Coupling Extent to which two components or activities must be linked to achieve an UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 38 appropriate performance (after Perrow). University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 39. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Loose Coupling vs. Tight Coupling • Loose Coupling (process and technical): – Processing delays possible; – Sequence & order can be changed; – Alternative methods available; – Slack in resources possible; – Buffers and redundancies are fortuitously always available. • Tight Coupling (process and technical): – Time-dependent behaviour, i.e., delays in processing not possible; – Invariant sequencing; – Only one method to achieve goal; – Little slack available; – Buffers and redundancies must be designed in as part of the system. • Issue raised by Perrow. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 39 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 40. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Tightly Coupled Mechanical Systems • Wheel and rail interface: – Steel on steel stiffness; – Motion control by conicity; – Traction and braking with small contact area; – Track held by ballast. • Pantograph and overhead: – Overhead relative to rails; – Low contact force limits wear; • Switches and crossings: – Accurate mechanisms needed; – Must be locked for trains. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 40 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 41. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Railways are Tightly Coupled Systems • Single degree of freedom of movement of rolling stock requires infrastructure with variable geometry; • Limited adhesion requires train control and signalling; T • Stiffness of wheel / rail interface requires accurate infrastructure and high quality maintenance; • Linear (distributed) nature of the railway infrastructure propagates failures and is open to environmental L influences; • Need for reliable timetabled operation and good resource management; • Interface and interaction management is essential. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 41 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 42. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Charles Perrow 1999 • “[S]ystems are not linear or complex, strictly speaking, only their interactions are. Even here we must recall that linear systems have very few complex interactions, while complex ones have more linear ones, but complex interactions are still few in number” • This is often referred to as ‘Interactive Complexity’: – Do we prefer linear or complex systems? – Do we prefer loose or tight coupling? • Unfortunately, some systems have to be interactively complex and tightly coupled by their nature! UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 42 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 43. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management System Dimensions and Industries Interaction / Coupling Chart Tight Coupling dams nuclear power railways >> plant grids DNA nuclear weapons Linear Interaction Complex Interaction assembly-line production mining R&D firms simple-goal agencies Loose Coupling UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 43 Adapted from Perrow,University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 1999:97 BIRMINGHAM
  • 44. UNIVERSITYOF BIRMINGHAM After 20 minutes, Felix ‘jumps ship’, illegally
  • 45. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management There was another Route to Sheffield… R3 Sheffield M. Chinley R2 R1 Chesterfield UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 45 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 46. UNIVERSITYOF BIRMINGHAM But the Driver’s Route Knowledge had Lapsed, due to the Sickness Leave
  • 47. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Consequences of just a few Mistakes • Consequences for the passengers on the Class 158: – 07:18 should have arrived in Sheffield at 08:09 but, instead, reaches South Yorkshire at 10:53; – Felix arrives in Sheffield at 10:10 on the 09:18 and is in the University 10 minutes before his lecture; – Most passengers have had to wait for 150 minutes without decent information – coming from an airport; – Passengers bound elsewhere have missed connections; – Railway has lost a lot of goodwill. • Network Rail and TOC B share ca. £100,000 cost of delay penalties – both had made serious mistakes. UNIVERSITY Slide No: 47 … but Felix has acquired a really excellent case-study! University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM OF
  • 48. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Case Study Lessons I • Accumulation of minor mistakes and failures can lead to a collapse in any tightly coupled (transport) system: – Single degree of freedom of motion of rolling stock: • Railway requires points; – Limited adhesion and thus inability to drive by line of sight: • Railway requires signalling and formal (level) crossings; – Stiff interface requiring highly performing maintenance: • Minimise scale of infrastructure to limit cost; – Linear nature of railway increases management difficulty: • Reduces ability to control and intervene; – Operational characteristics require adherence to timetable. • Organisational structure of system affects outcomes. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 48 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 49. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Case Study Lessons II • Impact of natural characteristics of rail mode of transport: – Route learning failure (driver should not have resumed work without it); – Train design failure (two pantographs would have minimised knock-on delays); – Control and supervision failure (better management and early intervention); – Infrastructure and signalling inadequacies (no capability for reversal or overtaking of failed train); – (Environmental) unpredictability not factored in. • The railway does not forgive mistakes! UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 49 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 50. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Determinant: Railway Variability Extent to which tasks must depart from a constantly recurring simple pattern UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 50 (McKechnie). University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 51. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Not enough Variability to cause Trouble Photograph Courtesy Keeping Track Image Library UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 51 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 52. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Too much Variability to cause Trouble? Photographs Courtesy North Sout Railway UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 52 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 53. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management External and Internal Variability • External variability: – Operational impact of weather; – Demand variation; – Economic cycle impact; VH – Stakeholder vacillation; – Subsidy regime variation; H – Impact of connecting services; – Third party behaviour. M • Internal variability: – Variable passenger behaviour; L – Variable staff performance; – Variable wheel-rail adhesion; – Spontaneous system failures; • Issue raised by McKechnie. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 53 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 54. UNIVERSITYOF BIRMINGHAM Railways Operate in a Highly Variable Environment Physically, Operationally and Organisationally
  • 55. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management And here it is: The Butterfly of Railway Complexity Le Papillon de la Complexité Ferroviaire Der Komplexitätsschmetterling UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 55 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 des Systems Bahn BIRMINGHAM
  • 56. UNIVERSITYOF BIRMINGHAM A Slightly Different Perspective
  • 57. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Regulations and Standards Issue • Tools to control complexity? • Intricate legal framework: ! RS E – Interoperability regulations; EA – Technical Specifications for Interoperability; 5Y VH – Road traffic regulations; R – National health and safety law; TE H – European rail safety law. AF M • Intricate standards system: TE – CEN Standards; DA L – UIC ‘standards’; OF – National regulations; – Internal standards. T • Issue raised by Qurashi. OU UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 57 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 58. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Five Dimensions of Complexity Variability Ve ry ? McKechnie S hor t gh y Hi Sh ort r Ve Water gh Me Hi diu Rail m Nuclear m diu Very High Me Hig Medium h w High Low Lo Regulations Diversity Various & Standards Low High Very High Medium Excessive! Qureshi Low Low um Medi Me diu m h Hig Hig h h ry Hig Ve Ver yH igh Dispersion Interdependence Schmid UNIVERSITYOF Perrow and McKechnie Slide No: 58 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 59. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management What Core Issue have we forgotten? b le s ha P eri RY e VE ar ay ilw Ra f the c ts o du Pr o The UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 59 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 60. Six Dimensions of Complexity Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Variability Ve ry Product Life McKechnie Sh ort Harris gh y Hi Sh ort r Ve Water gh Me Hi di um Rail Nuclear m diu Very High Me Hig Medium h w High Low Lo Regulations Diversity Various & Standards Low High Very High Medium Excessive! Qurashi Low Low um Medi Me diu m h Hig Hig h h ry Hig Ve Ver yH igh Dispersion Interdependence Schmid UNIVERSITYOF Perrow and McKechnie Slide No: 60 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 61. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Summary of Complexity Determinants • Level of Variability: – Affects extent to which tasks must depart from simple recurring patterns. • Level of Diversity (heterogeneity): – Relates to number of distinct and different sub-activities that must be performed within an integrated system of tasks; – Affects extent to which assets and processes exist beyond normal planning and management horizons. • Level of Interdependence (tight coupling / intensive interactions): – Extent to which performance of a system, as a whole, is reliant on and facilitated by exchanges of information to co-ordinate individual tasks. • Level of Dispersion and Linearity: – Extent to which assets, resources and people contributing to correct operation of system are distributed over a large area / along corridors. • Regulations and Standards: – Extent to which activities are regulated by governments and other bodies. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 61 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 62. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Physical Characteristics of Rail Mode Characteristic → Motion restricted to single Low coefficient of friction Stiff interface between wheels Distributed linear infra- ↓ Aspects degree of freedom along track between wheels and rails and rails structure subsystem Strengths G • No steering required; • Low rolling resistance; • Low energy dissipation; • Product reaches customer; • Predictable motion; • Low rolling surfaces wear; • High tonnages / period; • Production process controll- • Narrow swept path; • Efficient propulsion; • Low forces in track bed; able throughout system; • Linked consists (trains); • High speed operation; • Predictable motion; • External events rarely affect • High standard of safety. • Energy efficiency. • Smooth operations; all of system; • Potentially long track life. • Part opening of new systems. E • Track-based power supply. • Energy recovery potential. • Low wheel-rail damping. • Multiple feeder options. Weaknesses G • Guidance function cost; • Limited braking rate; • Stiff rolling interface; • Environmental impact • High route blockage risk; • Low acceleration rate; • Low inherent damping; affects linear strips of • Low network flexibility; • Seasonal adhesion variation; • Noise & vibration issues terrain; • Complex route changes; • Line of sight inadequate; • Cost of track & structures; • Remote management of • No collision avoidance. • Low rolling surface wear. • Cost of inspection. local problems difficult. E • Complex electrification; • Risk of slip and slide; • High impact environment • Voltage drop along route; • Limited design options. • Torque control required. for traction drives. • Many supply points needed. Technical G • Variable geometry elements; • Signalling system; • Load rack design; • Provision of redundancy; requirements • Train position detection; • Adhesion control; • Testing & inspection; • Protective features (tunnels, • Locking of route elements; • Artificial wear required; • Accurate maintenance; galleries, fences etc.). • Junctions & stations. • Regular maintenance. • Regular maintenance. Operational G • Timetabling & planning; • Path allocation to trains; • Strong procedures. • Scheduling of services; requirements • Strict rulebook for all staff. • Stringent safety rules. • Several layers of control. Management G • Rigorous selection of staff; • Simulation of individual • Maintenance management; • Delegated authority; tools • Modelling of train services. train behaviour. • Technical understanding. • Strong supervision. Training G • Responsibility; • Environmental awareness; • Strong engineering skills; • Rule based behaviour; • Staff competence. • Safety ethos. • Safety ethos. • Adaptive behaviour. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 62 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 63. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Railways have Strong Competitors Constraints / Controls Timetable, Management Systems Road Transport Demand Transport Product Profit? Transport Rail Transport Transport Goods Demand Demand & People by Rail Service Quality Air Transport Demand Mechanisms / Processors Waterways People, Rolling Stock, Infrastructure, Demand Power, Supplies, Finance UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 63 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 64. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management How can we Design better Systems? • Understand better the purpose of systems: – Identify stakeholder requirements; – Make stakeholder requirements measurable. • Understand better the functions that satisfy purpose: – Identify system functionality and architecture; – Identify necessary subsystems and their functions. • Understand better the interfaces between subsystems: – Identify links and relationships between functions. • Understand fully the interactions between subsystems: – Define limits to the interactions; – Monitor the interactions. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 64 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 65. UNIVERSITYOF BIRMINGHAM It’s a Complex System: Let’s apply (Railway) Systems Engineering
  • 66. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Rail Systems Engineering & Integration • Railway Systems Engineering and Integration (RSEI) is concerned with: – Managing the people, resources and processes required to conceive, design, build, operate, maintain, renew, close and decommission railways of all types; – Respecting the limits and constraints imposed by the natural physical, organisational and operational characteristics of the rail mode, in an effective and efficient manner; – Satisfying the system’s stakeholders and environmental concerns. • RSEI is not just about technologies, components, interfaces, know-how and processes; • RSEI is about developing people to carry out their tasks better and more effectively, while respecting the constraints of a highly complex technical and organisational system. • ‘Integration’ goes beyond systems engineering… UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 66 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 67. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management History of Systems Engineering © Brian Halliday, Network Rail 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Products Software Projects UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 67 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 68. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Systems Engineering Responsibilities • Requirements Management: – Requirements elicitation and requirements management; – Definition of system and subsystem specifications. • Performance and Technical Risk: – Modelling of operational performance; – Evaluation of robustness of technical options. • Cost and Capability: – Development of optimised system options; – Human, equipment and operations integration. • Quality Systems Design: – Creation of quality management systems. • Configuration Management: – Provision and control of asset information; – Development of configuration management systems. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 68 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 69. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Typical Systems Engineering VEE Process Conceive and Concept of Operation Need for a New Select Solution Function / System Capture Stakeholder Commission into Requirements Service Operation Develop System Define Validation Plan Test Whole System Specification Functionality De fin n tio it ion da Design and Develop Define Test Plans Integrate System ,D li Va System Architecture Components eco & mp ing osi t st Te i on Develop Components Test Test Components n, & tio and Subsystems Plans and Subsystems Ve ra ri teg fi c In a ti on Source or Produce System Components UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 69 Project Time Line University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 70. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Typical Systems Engineering VEE Process Conceive and Concept of Operation Requirement Select Solution Satisfied Capture Stakeholder Commission into Requirements Service Operation Develop System Define Validation Plan Test Whole System Specification Functionality De fin n tio it ion da Design and Develop Define Test Plans Integrate System ,D li Va System Architecture Components eco & mp ing osi t st Te i on Develop Components Test Test Components n, & tio and Subsystems Plans and Subsystems Ve ra ri teg fi c In a ti on Source or Produce System Components UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 70 Project Time Line University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 71. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Purpose of VEE Process in SE&I • Ensures structured approach to projects; • Assists robust requirements capture and maintenance; • Ensures clear staging of projects: – Allows establishment of stage gates; – Allows monitoring of time line; – Encourages closing out of issues; – Encourages management of prevarication. • Encourages thinking ahead to later stages; • Ensures robust verification and validation; • Assists robust configuration management: – Reduction of modification effort and rework. UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 71 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 72. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Why do projects fail? Other 23% Lack of User Input 13% Incomplete Require- 12% Technology ments Changing 11% 48% 12% Unrealistic Time Unrealistic 4% 6% Inadequate Unclear Resources 5% 6% Lack of Executive Support 8% Standish CHAOS report, 1995, http://standishgroup.com/visitor/chaos.htm UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 72 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 73. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management What goes wrong? 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Incorrect facts Omissions Inconsistency Ambiguity Misallocation Leffingwell, http://www.rational.com/media/whitepapers/roi1.pdf UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 73 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 74. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management How much does it cost to fix? 250 200 200 Relative Cost to Fix 150 100 50 50 20 1 5 10 0 Requirements Design Build Test Commissioning Operation Lifecycle Phase when Error Discovered Leffingwell, http://www.rational.com/media/whitepapers/roi1.pdf UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 74 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 75. Determinants of Railway System Complexity and their Management Conclusion • Natural characteristics of rail mode are constraining; • Railways are fundamentally different from other modes of transport and service industries; • Rail mode is inherently complex: – Technologically, organisationally and operationally; – Project delivery and safety management. • Stakeholders often have conflicting requirements and contradictory agendas; • VEE project life-cycle can be helpful in major projects but requires strong PM who imposes stop criteria! UNIVERSITYOF Slide No: 75 University of Wollongong, 2012-22-23 BIRMINGHAM
  • 76. UNIVERSITYOF BIRMINGHAM Railways perform well when they observe a robust and efficient timetable