2021: ScenarioS

2021:
Open SOciety FOrum
(OSF) is an independent
non-governmental
organization
established in June 2004
as a successor of the
mongolian Foundation
for Open
Society. OSF’s mission
is to serve as a platform
for informed citizen
participation
in policy formulation
and implementation by
supporting quality
research, information, and
stakeholder dialogue.
OSF works in partnership
with mongolian civil
society organizations
and seeks collaboration
opportunities with
the parliament and
Government of
mongolia. moreover, OSF
regularly consults with
donors and international
organizations on
key issues regarding
the country’s social,
economic, and
political development.
the Forum organizes its
activities in three core
program areas:
Governance, economy
policy, and Social policy.

Mongolia
ScenarioS

What are “scenarios”?
Scenarios are stories about possible futures. While we cannot
predict the future, especially 10 years from now, we can think about
it intelligently. Scenarios are a way to create plausible, consistent
and provocative representations of possible futures, so that we can
consider their implications. Scenarios answer the question “What
if.....?” They recognize that the world is uncertain and that we and
our children may be living in a future very different from the one we
anticipated.
Why Mongolian scenarios?
One thing is certain in Mongolia - we are aware that the country has
vast mineral resources. However, many things are uncertain - what
will market demand be? will prices rise or fall? will these resources
benefit all Mongolians, or just a segment of the population? will we
waste the revenues we get, or will we invest them wisely...?
Our goal is to present the Mongolian people - citizens, leaders,
intellectuals, businessmen and women - with coherent stories about
the future which we may face, depending on choices we make in the
next months and years.
How did we develop the scenarios?
Open Society Forum is experienced with scenarios. In 2003-2004
we produced the Mongolian Economic Development Scenarios
which led to many discussions about critical economic choices the
nation was facing. Based on its experience OSF decided to develop
scenarios “Mongolia in 2021” which each scenario will depend on
how the country will spend its revenue from extractive industries.
For these scenarios, we assemble about 30 representatives from
the business, government and civil society sectors; we met in three
plenary sessions and many smaller group sessions to develop and
refine the scenarios. We were assisted by Skillful Means, Inc. a
consultancy focused on strategy planning and scenario development
and by experts from Revenue Watch International, a nonprofit
focusing on resource transparency globally.

1

2021 Mongolia ScenarioS

Scenarios are created from “driving forces”, critical factors which in some cases
are relatively certain - population growth, for example - and in other cases are
importantly uncertain -developments in neighboring countries, for example. We
began by identifying the concerns of Mongolians about the management of our
mineral resources and the management of the revenues which we expect. We then
looked at various ways of distinguishing the scenarios from each other. We settled
on an “axis” and three key questions which might lead to very different futures.

Scenario 4
YES
NO

Are revenues used to
diversify and develop
a strong non-mining
sector?

YES

NO

Will the State invest
those revenues
primary economic
growth?

YES
NO

Scenario 3
Will the State be able
to achieve significant
nining sector revenues

Scenario 2

Scenario 1

We also agreed on elements that would be addressed in each scenario - inflation,
GDP, mining sector revenues, employment, exchange rates, etc. - and the
characters—notably Zaya - in our scenario stories. Then we divided into four teams
and started writing the scenarios.
The scenarios are the story of Zaya and her friends and family, to show what might
happen to ordinary Mongolians under each of the scenarios depending on how the
country will spend its revenue from mining.
In reading the scenarios, it is important to remember several things. Most
importantly, the scenarios are not projections or predictions; we are not claiming
that the future will in fact unfold precisely or even roughly along these lines. When
reading the scenario, we ask that you consider only three questions: is the scenario
plausible (might it happen, even if not exactly as the writers suggested)? Is the
scenario coherent (does it reflect a sound internal logic)? Is the scenario provocative
(does it make you think)?

2

6

FOUR DESTINY
OF ZAYA
Fate Should have leFt
Mongolian reSourceS
undiScovered
…Zaya never thought she would be rich, but she and
Orkhon thought they would become middle class
professionals who could attain comfortable living…

22

the Fate oF Mongolia
dependS on ogooMor
…Though upset, Zaya was able to manage life using the
cash transfers plus her husband’s salary. She still carried
the hope that one day the promised good life would come
true…

Zaya - holder oF a South
gobi province “green card”

38

…A mining expert Zaya from the Western Tsankhi coal
mine of the Inner Mongolia-South Gobi energy complex
was awarded the right to enjoy the Naadam holiday in
Ulaanbaatar…

Zaya, citiZen oF a
Fortunate country
…After many ministers and company directors had
spoken, Zaya raised the issue of the need to reduce
the negative impact of oil production on the natural
environment, even though oil production had benefited
the country overall…

54

Copyright © 2012 Open Society Forum
Jamiyan Gun Street-5/1, Sukhbaatar District,
Ulaanbaatar-48, Mongolia
Tel: (976-11) 313207, Fax: (976-11) 324857
Website: http://www.forum.mn

3

Zaya never thought she would be rich, but she and O
would become middle class professionals who could at

Orkhon thought they
ttain comfortable living.
Today is Dec 31, 2021. Although 37-year
old Zaya is getting ready to celebrate the New
Year tonight, “Happy New Year” is not really
what she is thinking. She has not been happy with
her life, being one of the 800,000 households on
the edge of collapse and a typical representation
of the 3.5 million Mongolians living a miserable
daily existence. The mega-mining projects that
were hot topics of discussion ten years ago and
sparked hope in so many people have mostly
disappeared with little trace. And while those who
brokered the large investment agreements with
foreigners and those who claimed “ownership”
of the mines, either openly or through secret
arrangements, became rich and are now living far
away abroad, it became very difficult for Zaya to
live as the country’s middle class collapsed.
Coming from Arkhangai aimag, Zaya
entered university in Ulaanbaatar 21 years ago
and became a lawyer. She also married and has
two children. Zaya’s spouse Orkhon works as a
security guard for a small company overseeing
a number of placer gold mining projects. He
doesn’t even know who the owners are. He is one
of the many ordinary employees of the company
reassigned as a security guard to protect its assets
from theft.
Her children are now 13 and 7 years old. The
Mongolian education system is very fragile. The
children of the rich either go to private schools or
to special public schools which require payment of
significant additional fees. Children like Zaya’s go
to overcrowded public schools where teachers are
underpaid and do not stay long. On top of that,
it has become normal for children to spend their
time in the school doing nothing.

New Year is supposed to be a happy holiday for
urban people who follow the European calendar.
However, for Zaya, the New Year celebrations of
the last 5 or 6 years are accompanied by fear and
deep depression. Over these years the issue of
making a living has become a constant concern
for her, even though her children have grown
up relatively comfortably. She sighs as she looks
through her steam coated windows at a family
across the way, illuminated by candlelight,
thinking that things will get only get worse.
Ulaanbaatar’s obsolete heating lines and old
power station mean production is erratic and she
is used to power interruptions by now.

The children of the people in power when
Zaya arrived in Ulaanbaatar a decade ago have
also grown up. However their lives are very
different from Zaya’s. Either directly or behind
the scenes they control the distribution of wealth
and determine the fate of politicians – family
dynasties run the show. All this surprises Zaya
and her peers, who were among the vanguard of
Mongolian civil society as they became lawyers
and professionals.
Zaya had been unable to find work as a lawyer
immediately after graduation and wound up
doing low level assistants’ work for small and
minor companies on and off. She was employed
this way when the Government inked the Oyu
Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi investment agreements
that had been hot topics of conversation over
the years. Like many people, she really expected
living conditions to improve, and soon after
graduation she married Orkhon who was studying
engineering. However, 2012 and 2013, the
projected launch dates for large scale production
from OT and TT, slipped away quietly. Instead of
the grand dreams becoming reality, she began to
hear that Mongolia was accused in international
courts by investors and international partners
who claimed it had violated the terms of its
agreements. The companies were countersued
by Mongolians in local courts and various
contradictory rulings ensued. This radically
slowed momentum in the sector.
As Zaya remembers, during the 2012 election

6

International mining companie

wealthy candidates again bribed voters, but this
time the fate of the country irrevocably changed
for the worse. The two largest political forces
reneged on their pledge not to promise cash
to voters and so derail the development of the
country. Instead the two parties competed with
each other in promising more handouts in the
final days before the elections: shares of the Tavan
Tolgoi coal mine; ownership in other large mining
projects; and increased salary, pensions, social
welfare and other incentives. The new government
immediately faced the challenge of fulfilling
election pledges and started by distributing
indexed shares of the Tavan Tolgoi coal mine
and then purchasing these shares for 1 million
Tugrik cash handout each, which led to significant
inflation.
Revenues from the open-pit Oyu Tolgoi mine,

es lost trust in Mongolia and began to demand concessionary deals to
justify the risk that agreements would be cancelled or renegotiated.

which began to operate in the summer after that
the election, were spent for repayment of loans
the previous government borrowed from its
operator, Rio Tinto and from China and Russia
in 2012 and 2013 and spent on pre-election cash
distribution. It soon became clear that Mongolia’s
share of revenues had essentially all been pledged
to others and would not contribute to the
national economy. In the next years the mining
infrastructure and supply chain became riddled
with corrupt practices, so the cost of mining
increased and tax revenues on profits decreased.
Once the Euro zone economic crisis led to a
severe restriction in financial capital, minor
political parties and civic groups began to demand
state ownership of at least 50% of the Oyu Tolgoi
project. Because of this, Oyu Tolgoi’s investors
decided to suspend investment in developing

the underground mine and to wait for political
processes to play out.
In this environment, the Tavan Tolgoi coal
mine became the next big disappointment. The
government and foreign partners disagreed about
the mineral reserves available, expected market
price, cost of development and rate of return.
As a result only the State-owned coal company,
Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi, mined coal there on a
small scale.
Fearing the anger of voters, before the
2016 election politicians attempted to review a
number of investment agreements signed with
international companies. It became very difficult
for investors to determine who was making
decisions as various shady figures emerged,
generally seeking shares or outright bribes. As the
rules of the game became uncertain it became
increasingly difficult for mining companies to
raise funding and by 2015, no new investments
were being made. Zaya vaguely remembers that
large mining companies began to sell their assets.
Not only Western and Korean mining companies,
but even Russian and Chinese ones lost trust in
Mongolia and began to demand concessionary
deals to justify the risk that agreements would be
cancelled or renegotiated.
Thus a vicious cycle started. Politicians used
Mongolia’s expected future revenues as collateral
for borrowing from investors in order to distribute
cash in order to be elected again. Proposals to
review investment agreements and increase State
ownership were raised in each election cycle
under pressure by groups advocating more equal
distribution of wealth and by populist politicians,
many of whom had conflicts of interest. Money
raised that way was spent immediately on vote
buying. As a consequence, the government’s
ability to borrow fell over time and voters became
more and more dissatisfied and distrustful of
politicians. At the same time, cash transfers had
seriously reduced incentives for many to look for
work and people became ever more dependent on
ever smaller handouts. Even when the government
distributed the remaining shares of Tavan
Tolgoi to citizens, people merely sold these for
small amounts of money and these shares were
perceived as no more valuable than a piece of
paper.

7

Mongolia never benefited from the relatively
high price of minerals in 2012-2016, and when
commodity prices declined as a new recession
started in Europe and the USA in 2018-2019,
foreign investment in the mining sector essentially
dried up completely.

By 2020, government finances were in
crisis. The budget deficit had increased annually
because the government had to start repaying
the huge loans it took for monetizing the Tavan
Tolgoi shares distributed to citizens, for investing
in big mining projects and for compensating
foreign companies who had sued the government
in international courts. When the price of coal
dropped in the world market between 2018 and
2019, the budget deficit had already reached 15%
of GDP. The Financial Stability Law was never
implemented properly and by 2017 no funds
were available in the Stability Fund. Since the
Development Bank of Mongolia was unable to
make payments on its bonds additional pressure
was put on the State budget. And the many

8

commercial banks who had borrowed from abroad
in hope of great returns from the mining sector
were also were unable to make payments. The
government invested in two banks in order to
prevent them from bankruptcy and accordingly,
the State budget’s condition became even worse.
Consequently, the Financial Stability Law was
annulled, since even if the government issued
new bonds, no one would buy them. Because of
all these circumstances, the government took
additional loans from China; by 2020 its debt
totaled 150% of GDP, an amount far greater
than that taken from the Soviet Union during the
socialist regime.
By 2021 China was essentially the only
foreign partner in Tavan Tolgoi and began to
set the actual price it would pay for coal. Since
China had recently increased its black and lignite
coal production in its border areas neighboring
Mongolia, its demand dropped. Even though
Mongolian public officials and World Bank
analysts warned political parties that China’s
demand for Mongolian coal would decrease,
the government was unprepared for the sharp
decline of Mongolian revenue from coal exports.

When commodity prices declined as a new recession started in Europe and the USA in 20182019, foreign investment in the mining sector essentially dried up completely.

The budget was by now running an extraordinary
deficit and inflation was out of control since
the government was printing money in order to
continue cash transfers. According to official
reports, the inflation rate is 12%, but for a long
time inflation has been running over 30%. Private
companies also borrowed significant amount of
money from domestic and foreign sources and this
too increased the overall level of national debt.

Oligarchs are the undisputed power in
Mongolia. Zaya read on the internet that just over
200 families essentially control the economy and
political parties. World Bank statistics show that
the top 10% of the population get at least 45% of
annual national income and own some 90% of
assets. They seem to have no fear of public anger,
or even of the courts and authorities. In the midst

of widespread poverty, these families compete
with each other in organizing lavish weddings
and parties to highlight their wealth. Zaya still
remembers seeing a wedding invitation decorated
with real pearls and reading about guests being
handed the keys to houses and luxury cars as
gifts. The oligarchs own the local media and the
media in turn publicize and praise all this lavish
spending.
Zaya and her friends often talk about the time
when things started to go wrong. The election
of 2012 was disappointing, and soon after the
oligarchs really took control. Police, defense and
military spending increased significantly, while
expenditures and investments in education and
social services plummeted in real terms. Zaya
even heard a rumor about a secret agreement,
supposedly signed by the people who won in
the 2016 election, that they would pass on their
parliamentary seats to their children. Though it

9

reads like a bad film plot, it certainly
seems to be a reliable feature of
elections since then. There always
seems to be a coalition of the same
individuals and interests, all drawn
from these oligarch families. If only
courts functioned that reliably, she
thinks!
Everyone knows that the oligarchs
will do whatever is necessary to protect
their positions and interests. Attacks
on civil society leaders and protesters
are common nowadays, and these
attacks make use of the police and
sometimes even the armed forces.
Desperate people once in a while
have taken to the street in protest
demonstrations, however the organizers
are chased down one by one or in
groups and put in prison, so in general
the demonstrations have no impact
anymore. Her classmate Ireedui is
in prison again for “revealing State
secrets” all because his website put up a
story about links between the Minister
of Justice and Russian business
interests, a story which had already
been published in a Russian newspaper.
The country’s defense establishment
now seems to serve the interest of
oligarchs and there are rumors that
Chinese or Russian security “advisors”
and informers are working with the
secret service. However, it does not
mean that life is safe for those serving
the oligarchs. During the New Year
celebration last year, her husband
Orkhon did not come home, doggedly
guarding one of the placer mines of
his employer. He was beaten by thugs
until his eyes were indistinguishable
from his face. Zaya did not dare ask
too much about what happened, and
he only muttered something about “…
conflicts among oligarchs”. Zaya knew
that the people in power would do
anything to protect themselves from
downfall, and since it can be unsafe to
work as a lawyer, she watches her step

all the time. She takes no clients who
have legal issues involving oligarchs and
mostly just drafts meaningless contracts
– even if everybody knows the courts
won’t pay much attention to those
contracts anyway.
Zaya never thought she would be
rich, but she and Orkhon thought
they would become middle class
professionals making a comfortable
living. That looks impossible now.

Zaya can’t see any way to escape
current conditions. Although different
studies show that the unemployment
rate is 20% and around 60-80% of
the population is living in poverty, no
one really knows the exact numbers
since statistics from the Ministry
of Social Welfare are completely
unreliable. What Zaya knows is that
the disappearance of the small middle
class led to a creation of two parallel
economies: one for the few extremely
rich with access to the world market,
and a domestic market for the poor
majority.
The western region became a desert
as a consequence of frequent droughts
between 2012-2017, and as a result
of global climate warming. Rivers
disappeared permanently. All this
increased migration of people from the
south and west to the central region.

The western part
of Mongolia has
essentially been
abandoned by its
native residents
because of
tourists now think it
is a part of the Gobi
Desert.

11


The western region became a desert as a consequence of frequent droughts between 2012-2017, and as a result of global climate
warming. Rivers disappeared permanently. All this increased migration of people from the south and west to the central region.

The population of Ulaanbaatar reached 2.5
million and this created unprecedented burdens
for sanitation, food, heating and power supply.
As a result, Ulaanbaatar became a cold, dark,
polluted and violent city. The number of homeless
people grew and crime and violence increased.
Budget expenditures for the police and security
services also increased significantly and policemen
are now visible everywhere. Many conclude that
Mongolia has become a police state primarily as

12

the consequence of the vicious circle of poverty.
Zaya remembers how much safer she felt in
Moscow on her last visit and wonders how matters
came to this.

Zaya’s two best friends will be visiting
her for New Year celebration, so she is in the
kitchen. Virtually all the food in the house is

remaining pastureland led to the near collapse
of traditional nomadic livestock husbandry.
The western part of Mongolia has essentially
been abandoned by its native residents because
of desertification and tourists now think it is a
part of the Gobi Desert. The remaining herders
are now living in the Khovsgol-Bulgan-Selenge
region. Contrary to what is being said in tourist
brochures, Mongolia no longer has a real
nomadic culture.

either fast growing vegetables from eastern
China or dried and canned Korean products
for long storage. Local vegetables are only a
memory because of the collapse of agricultural
farming sectors several years ago. A fierce
competition among oligarchs for permissions
to export meat to China and Russia led to
massive overgrazing and erosion of pastureland.
Parliament compounded the problem by passing
laws on pastureland which led to confusion about
ownership rights. Much land was taken by the
rich and fights amongst poorer herders over the

Undraa, Zaya’s childhood friend, knocks on
the door and enters the house swiftly. She laughs
as if she brought the whole Southern Gobi region
with her. She lives in the Gobi desert with her
husband, who works in the Sainshand Industrial
Park. More than 10 years ago she founded an
NGO focusing on rural health, and at least
she has a solid base of clients. Alcohol abuse is
on the increase and at the same time male life
expectancy has declined. Family abuse is common
too. Moreover, tuberculosis is so rampant in ger
villages that rumors abound that it is a strategy to
keep the population down. Though most NGOs
are not strong and most of them fail, at least she
is working in an area where foreign donors and
western churches are still willing to provide funds.
The government provides little support and almost
all goes to so-called civil society organizations
allied with special interests. NGOs that receive
funding from abroad are severely restricted by
government regulations, and besides, many
foreign donors have essentially given up any
hope to work with NGOs. Public participation in
civil society and social organizations has sharply
declined.
Undraa often complains that she spent her
productive years in the Gobi desert waiting for
her husband to be promoted; instead Sainshand
is still barely functioning after 10 years due to
inadequate planning and funding. Her husband’s
last hope was to be appointed to a management
position in the metal and steel plant, but this hope
has been dashed now that its opening is again
delayed. It seems that one of the plant’s managers
borrowed money from one of the oligarch banks
at unsustainably high interest rate and the bank is

13


UlaanBaaTar
The population of Ulaanbaatar reached 2.5
million and this created unprecedented burdens
for sanitation, food, heating and power supply.
As a result, Ulaanbaatar became a cold, dark,
polluted and violent city.


In the midst of widespread poverty, a few rich families compete with each other in
organizing lavish weddings and parties to highlight their wealth.

now claiming ownership. Undraa says the whole
area is like “…a female camel licking her wound
after falling into a bottomless pit…”
This plant was one of more realistic projects
implemented by the Development Bank of
Mongolia. However, the Bank itself is essentially
bankrupt, since many loans were never repaid and
it wasted foreign loans on one inefficient project
after another. It became yet another reason for the
increase in the foreign debt of the country. Zaya
was slicing bread when she thought about empty
terms like “development” and “stabilization”.
In order to meet obligations, the government
was continuously printing money and as a result
inflation kept climbing. Now, prices are totally
in different digits compared to what they were 10
years back. The young generation roll their eyes
when adults laugh saying that “…10,000 Tugrik
bread is actually 600 Tugrik bread…”.. Since the
Tugrik exchange rate fluctuates so drastically,
the Chinese Yuan is now the main currency in
circulation and even the country’s basic financial
figures are calculated in Yuan.

16

Undraa makes a call to find out why Khishgee
is late. She teaches social science in a public
secondary school and after a failed marriage she
became hesitant to start another. Khishgee said she
was attending a meeting of teachers who want to
strike but are afraid of the consequences. Since the
press was not attending, people were talking openly
and she really wanted to hear what was being
proposed. She said people talked about rampant
violence and even assassinations as various groups
fight for control of districts and companies.
The three women enjoy themselves as best they
can. They look at the flickering streetlights and
ponder the fragility of life. Orkhon finally comes
home just after midnight, only a little drunk. He
attended a rally by the Chairman of a new radical
and pro-communist political party. Orkhon
awkwardly said that he now plans to work for
“New Politics”. Given what has happened since
2012, he considers this as the best way to improve
his children’s future. He also thinks that only if
Mongolia had not found natural resources, this
resource curse wouldn’t have happened.

Governance Indicators

Economic Indicators

indicators
indicators

2011

GDP per capita (USD)

2016

2021

2,786.13

7,579.21

7,762.09

15%

3%

1%

733.82

1,944.54

1,327.15

11%

20%

12%

39%

30%

24.50%

Real GDP growth
Government mining
revenues
(mln USD)

Poverty level

50

47

40

36,5

35

2021

Global Integrity,
(very weak-0; very strong-100)

57

23

Banking Industry Country Risk
(S&P, 1-10, 10-extremely high)

9

10

Competitiveness Ranking
(World Economic Forum, total 142 country)

96

110

Open Budget Index
(Open Budget Partnership, very weak-0;
very strong-100)

60

36

Elections characterized by fraud and vote-buying.
MPs viewed as self-interested business people or
weak tools for business interests. People suspect
motives and integrity of politicians.

42,79

45

2011

30,9

30

25

25

Parliament descends into short term interest
groups scrambling to gain access to funds.
Coalitions are short lived, based on short term
interests.

20
15
10
5
0

Mongolia 2011 Mongolia 2021 Norway 2011 Kazakhstan 2011 Ghana 2011

Revenue management indicators
indicators

2011/2009

Stability Fund (bln)

281

50

0

0

50

0

38.2

33

0.489

0.55

Human Development Fund (bln)
Development Bank (bln)
Revenue Management Index
(Revenue Watch Institute, weak-0;
strong-100)
(0-1, 1-high export concentration)

90
75%

80

2021

Mining sector is viewed as asset to be divided
between powerful interests. No interest in long
term sustainability – either in Mongolian hands
or under foreign management. Constant pressure
on foreign investors for payments, side deals, etc.
Willingness to sign away long term interests for
short term gains.
No serious funding for Development Bank or
Stability Fund. Funds which are deposited – or
appear to be deposited – quickly pledged to
individual business and political interests.
Citizen dissatisfaction kept in check through
payoffs/subsidies and threats. Rule of law
extremely weak.
Country has no strategies against inflation, price
shocks, national debt. Increasingly dependent
upon foreign lenders, and vulnerable to increasing
demand for handing over of assets.

80%

70
60
50

2011

40
30
20%

20
10
0

20%

Crime high, unemployment high, public health
problems serious.

2021

5%
0%

Savings

Consumption

Investment

17

Though upset, Zaya was able to manage life usin
plus her husband’s salary. She still carried the hop
promised good life would come t

ng the cash transfers
pe that one day the
true.

Even though the sun had risen high in the
sky, sunlight does not penetrate the dark clouds
looming over Ulaanbaatar. It is yet another
gloomy morning in the capital city. Spring winds
smear the downtown glass high-rise buildings
with trash and soot gathered up from the poverty
stricken slums. Tattered residential apartments act
as a makeshift border between two very different
worlds; worlds with nothing in common, except
the wind. The sides of residential buildings facing
the downtown are painted and nicely decorated
with artificial green lawns under the windows. But
the sides of the buildings facing the slums look like
ruins, ragged and worn out, as if they could collapse at any time.
Zaya Mongol appears from one of the rundown
apartments, kicking trash out of her way as she
begins her dusty walk. Though only 30 years old,
Zaya looks much older, worn out like the building
she lives in. Her four children are watching her
through the apartment window. The Mongolian
government implemented many cash distribution
programs to support population growth over the
last 20 years. Therefore, it is no longer surprising
for Mongolian women to have 4 children or more
at her age. As a result, the population growth rate is
at a historical high.

Zaya graduated from the university 10 years work. Zaya was confident that the economic crisis
ago with a law degree. However, she never would end within a few months and a “normal
worked as a lawyer. Shortly after graduation, she life” would return, including the government
married Orkhon and gave birth to three children. social welfare allowances that her family depended
Unfortunately, Orkhon was unemployed and often on. Now, looking back over a harsh 3 years, Zaya
spent the family’s monthly cash allowance on is despairing and hopeless as it is still a struggle to
gambling and vodka. As the situation worsened, survive.
Orkhon threatened the children and started to beat
Mongolia’s development path seemed to start in
Zaya. Seeing no other
2013 with the regaining
option, she divorced him,
of foreign investors’
taking the children with
confidence when the
her.
government
decided
A few years later,
to implement mining
Zaya married again and
agreements signed in
gave birth to a fourth
2009. Big mines such as
child.
Her
husband,
Oyu Tolgoi and Tavan
Zhipeng, was a Chinese
Tolgoi began production
engineer
supervising
in 2013 and it was the
the
construction
of
year that Zaya and many
an industrial plant in
ordinary Mongolians felt
Sainshand. Along with
real progress was very
the mining boom, many
close.
Chinese workers migrated
Politicians continued
and settled in Mongolia
to say that Mongolia
since most Mongolians
was becoming one of the
were unwilling to work
most highly developed
for salaries which were
countries in the world.
less than their monthly
People were mesmerized
cash transfer from the
by political promises
government.
With
of
all
Mongolians
the influx of Chinese
living in luxury and
workers,
marriage
not needing to work
between
Mongolian
and were overwhelmed
women and Chinese men
with
excitement
in
The Parlaiment adopted a proposal to rename the
became common. Zaya’s
anticipation of living
Herders’ Fund as the “Chinggis Khan Fund” with the
aim of distributing 500,000 Tugriks to each citizen
marriage to an employed
a life of leisure while
and 300,000 Tugriks to each child per month.
Chinese engineer allowed
receiving cash transfers.
her to have a happy life
The political party which
with an average standard of living.
won the 2016 parliamentary election pledged even
As her father had foreseen, Zaya’s life larger cash distributions than previously enjoyed:
unfortunately changed from a sweet dream into increasing monthly allowances for children to
a feverish nightmare. When the 2018 global 300,000 Tugriks and for every Mongolian to
economic crisis hit, investment in the Sainshand 500,000 Tugriks. All these payments were financed
Industrial Park was stalled. Zhipeng was laid by loans taken in advance from foreign mining
off and shortly after went to his home in China, companies, pledging future mining revenues as
leaving nothing for the family except the apartment collateral. These events seemed so recent to Zaya.
in which they lived. Zaya did not try to find work
Initially, the government cash transfers were
as she lacked experience in her field and in fact, sufficient to maintain an adequate standard of living
more importantly, she lacked the motivation to but, within a few years, the Tugrik was devalued and

20

inflation increased sharply. The standard of living
deteriorated for most people. Though upset, Zaya
was able to manage life using the cash transfers plus
her husband’s salary. She still carried the hope that
one day the promised good life would come true.
However, sudden misfortune fell and by early
2018, an economic crisis had begun. Deposits
in the Stabilization Fund, established in 2013,
were used first to finance a welfare program for
herders, then one for old people and children,
and eventually for every individual. Thus, when
the economic crisis hit the country, the Fund’s
deposits were already exhausted. The Mongolian
economy was unprepared for such a crisis. In
2020, as the economic crisis deepened, some cash
transfer programs were cut causing huge public
protests. Now, everyone complains that “15,000
Tugrik is not enough to buy a kilo of meat, and
the 300,000 Tugrik allowance for children is now
worth no more than the 100,000 Tugrik we were
getting when the program started”.
Now, as expenditures for cash allowances are
cut, a majority of Mongolians are experiencing
hardships; a few are so wealthy, however, that they
haven’t felt the crisis at all. People at many protest
demonstrations say that “2% of Mongolians are
exorbitantly rich and another 10% are rich, and the
middle class (mostly consisting of people providing
services and logistics for mining and construction)
make up 30% of the population… This means that
more than half the population is poor and relies
totally on government social welfare programs”.
Zaya listens intently and ponders the events of the
last 20 years. Actually, during the last ten years,
Mongolia became known for its mineral resources
and the revenues it generated. However, despite
nonstop talk of revenue management, Mongolia
did not use these revenues either for economic
growth nor for long-term sustainable development.
Zaya overheard people discussing a recent
newspaper interview with an economist. Using
facts and figures, the economist explained that
although the Mongolian government was earning
$6 billion dollars a year from the mining sector,
a majority of this revenue was spent financing
current expenditures of the government and
inefficient infrastructure projects. The interview
straightforwardly pointed out that the large
projects financed by the Natural Resources Fund

were managed by cronies of politicians and were
very inefficient. This speech confused Zaya.
When thinking about various development works,
ranging from soum-level construction to a modern
road network passing through the native village
of a Transportation Minister and to the narrow
gauge railroad connecting Mongolia from North
to South, it was hard to be critical and say that the
government was doing nothing. However, when
she thought about the unfinished construction
work of a large recreational park with underground
parking for 5000 cars, which was initiated by a
member of Parliament elected from her district
and financed by the Development Bank in order
to fulfill his election promise, Zaya felt sad. The
global economic crisis and fall in commodity prices
stopped completion of this park and dashed Zaya’s
hopes of buying a larger apartment and a new car.

The number of participants joining the protest demonstration in Central Square kept increasing and by noon the square was full. The protestors echoed what speakers were saying from the
stage. They waved banners painted with slogans
such as, “Mongolian meat should not be more expensive than European meat”, “Natural resources
should belong to the people”, and “Stop corruption - fulfill your pledges and increase the cash
transfers”. Although Zaya shouted these political
slogans at the top of her voice, her main objective for joining the demonstration was to get her
cash transfer increased. Some of the protestors
were drinking vodka on the edge of the square.
Luxury brand shops near the square had been
locked down and were protected by armed security guards. Protestors had attacked and robbed
these shops a week ago during a previous demonstration and the police used force to disperse the
crowd. On the western side of the square, several
dozen people stood quietly holding banners stating “Cash transfer programs will not improve our
lives”, “Invest mining revenues to future development”, and “Stabilization Fund and Development
Bank should report and be accountable”. Later,
they silently disbanded.
In the afternoon, word spread that a
representative of the government was going to make

21


a statement. Soon, Ogoomor, the young Minister of
Finance, walked onto the stage surrounded by his
bodyguards. He is the son of one of the influential
members of the ruling party who was elected from
Arkhangai Province to Parliament with the slogan
“ Electricity to each bag1 and a Megjid Janraisig2 to
each soum”. Because of the influence of his father,

22

Ogoomor studied abroad and was viewed as a very
promising politician.
“Citizens! Since 2018, the international market
price of minerals has declined by 60% and our
government revenue has dropped by 54%. This
means our budget deficit has reached 35 trillion
Tugrik which equals 28% of our GDP3. Therefore,

Spring winds smear the downtown glass high-rise buildings
with trash and soot gathered up from the poverty stricken
slums. Tattered residential apartments act as a makeshift
border between two very different worlds; worlds with nothing in
common, except the wind.

we have had to reduce cash transfer programs and
postpone large development projects.”
“Oh, no!”
“However, as result of our government’s hard
work, and using all of our available resources, we
have decided to distribute to each citizen 4,000,000
Tugriks in cash or $10004 by June, 2021 in addition

to your current monthly allowances!”
“Hurray! Hurray!”
With that, the young Minister became a national
hero within a few minutes and proudly left the stage.
Ogoomor knows that continuing to distribute cash
transfers is very harmful to the country’s economy.
However, this is politics, what can he do?
The Stabilization Fund was set up in 2011-13
when budget revenues were very high. Ogoomor
knows very well that deposits to the Stabilization
Fund were initially used to establish a “Herders
Fund” at the demand of the herders. This fund
disbursed loans with no interest rate to herders who
had lost their animals in the recent dzud. But soon
after the Herders Fund changed its objective and
began to disburse loans to all herder households with
a purpose of increasing the number of livestock. As
a result, along with the environmental effects of
mining, overgrazing has resulted in many herders
having little or no pastureland at all. Even though
Ogoomor is aware of these facts, before the 2016
election he initiated and developed a proposal to
rename the Herders’ Fund as the “Chinggis Khan
Fund” with the aim of distributing 500,000 Tugriks
to each citizen and 300,000 Tugriks to each child
per month. His proposal was successfully adopted
by Parliament.
If revenues from mining as of 2013 could
have been maintained, the government would
have supported the cash transfer programs easily.
However, a significant portion of the anticipated
mining revenues had already been taken in the
form of loans in advance and had been spent to
fulfill populist pledges of politicians. In addition
many projects financed by the Development Bank
went bankrupt and Mongolia’s credit rating was
downgraded. Mongolia borrowed 12 billion RMB
from China in order to finance the North-South
railroad project; then, in 2020, Mongolia again
took a loan which was equivalent to 1.2 trillion
Tugrik from China in order to maintain the cash
transfer programs. Mongolia did not invest in the
mining sector and, eventually, foreign companies
came to dominate the sector. Hiring Chinese
workers was one of conditions of the Chinese loans
but what could Mongolia do? And these weren’t
the only problems. Starting from 2020, Mongolia
started to pay $900 million dollars annually to

23


service its foreign debt and soon will be unable to
pay the minimum interest payment due. Minister
Ogoomor is worrying about how to explain these
situations to the Prime Minister.
- Minister Ogoomor, can I ask you a few
questions? I’m from the media.
-...

- Why did the Stabilization Fund not act as it
was supposed to when the budget is in deficit?
“The last 10 years were a period of prosperity
for the Mongolian economy, allowing us to grow and
develop rapidly. During this period, 70% of the mining
revenue was used for cash distribution programs to
improve standards of living of our citizens and 30%

was spent through the Development Bank to finance
large, long-term infrastructure projects. Therefore,
only a small percentage of revenues was deposited to
the Stabilization Fund and it is simply not enough to
overcome today’s crisis.”
“The International media reports that the
Development Bank of Mongolia is actually bankrupt?
Is this true?”
“That is a slanderous and false report!”
“What do you think about real estate assets,
purchased abroad with funding from the Development
Bank, ending up in the names of certain Ministers?”
“This issue is being investigated by the courts.”
“The Mongolian government already borrowed
from abroad enormously using its future revenues
as collateral. Lately, Mongolia has come under
debt burden and its credit rating was drastically
downgraded. Therefore, it is impossible now to
borrow from abroad. So who and what will be the
sources of the 4 million Tugrik cash transfer that you
just promised?”
“We are using our internal resources. Our reliable
partners of many years expressed that they are ready
to provide us assistance”.
“By internal resources, do you mean printing
more money? If this happens, you won’t be able to
curb our already ballooning inflation and investments
will be stalled. Won’t this push our entire economy to
the brink of total collapse?”
“In this difficult time, it is important for us to
unify and work together for our country rather than
criticizing those who are working hard. I apologize
but I’m very busy and must conclude this interview...”
Since Ogoomor doesn’t have answers to
these difficult questions, he wants to finish the
interview quickly. The journalist is correct - when
international and domestic sources for raising
funds are exhausted there are only two ways to raise
budget revenue: raise taxes or print money. Even if
taxes were increased, businesses do not have enough
revenue to pay, so it is unlikely that the budget
revenue would increase. Ogoomor explained all
this and even more at a party meeting. However,
party members chose the option of printing
money. In fact, isn’t raising taxes like stealing from
themselves? This is an indication of how common
it had become for personal interests to supersede
the public interest. Governance in Mongolia had
been drastically weakened. Unfortunately, there

is no coherent political opposition to dispute
decisions which are against the national interests.
Trans-party oligarch groups control politics, civil
society acts as the puppets of politicians, public
has become passive and lethargic and prefers to
receive cash transfers from the government rather
than fight for change. This reminds people of the
period 300 years ago when Mongolia was under the
oppression of the Manchu Qing Dynasty.

In 2020, as the economic crisis deepened, some cash
transfer programs were cut causing huge public protests.


It is 6 a.m. on yet another dusty, gray
Ulaanbaatar morning. Ireedui rubs his eyes as
he gets up from behind his computer and prepares to go to his day job. His all-night work on
www.ireedui.com website has nothing to do with
his full-time work monitoring CCTVs and surveillance cameras in a 5-star luxury hotel. At

and other intellectuals post articles and engage in
debates on the website. The website has become
very popular among people and has become
something of a political debate club for the middle
class. Like intellectuals in other societies, their
activities have not progressed beyond discussion
and writing. However, recently they have been
debating about whether it would be right or wrong
to join the demonstrations in the central square

Government secretly revoked law to ban mining north of 47th latitude and issued licenses to foreign mining companies in order to pay back debt.

40 years old, Ireedui is a very talented software
programming engineer who dreams of developing an economy based on knowledge and designing world class software programs. However, in
order to support his family he works as full-time
employee in the hotel. He earns about $3,000 a
month, which is sufficient to sustain an average
living standard.
Ireedui had faced a difficult decision: migrate
abroad and work in his specialized field as many
of his friends recommended, or continue to work
like this in Mongolia. He decided to stay. Ireedui
explained his decision to stay on his website as “We,
the Mongolian intellectuals, shouldn’t act like the
foreign businesses who invested in Mongolia only
for the purpose of money laundering, getting rich
quickly and running out when the economic crisis
hits. Unlike them, we can’t abandon our country
when our country needs us most”.
The website that Ireedui runs at night is a
platform for his concerns about the future of his
country and its current development path. He

26

and take to the streets to strengthen democracy
and demand reforms. Some of the headlines of
most popular posts on the website include:
“Shall we continue giving away strategically
important deposits to foreigners?”
“Mongolia has become a country that imports
drinking water!”
“Projects to divert Kherlen and Orkhon rivers,
funded by rehabilitation money, are stalled. No
Kherlen and Orkhon rivers and no rehabilitation.”
“Government secretly revoked law to ban mining
north of 47th latitude and issued licenses to foreign
mining companies in order to pay back debt.”
“Donated funds intended for “Mongolian
Lung Association” and “Mongolia-Free of AIDS”
programs ended up in the pockets of corrupt officials”.
On his way to work, Ireedui is driving his son to
a private high school in his medium-sized Chinese
jeep, a vehicle common among middle class
families.
“How are your studies and exams going, my
son?”

“Good, good! I got an ‘A’ in every class this
term!”
“How was the picnic with your classmates?”
“It was wonderful! We came across a small,
flowing river, but the water was polluted and they
told us not drink or use it for hand washing. We also
saw a rural herder family.”
“Good. Have you sent your application for law
school yet?”
“No. Even if I became good lawyer, I’d never be
able to become a judge. So I’ve decided to become a
mining engineer.”
…
In the afternoon, at 1 pm, Ireedui’s normal
working day was continuing. His co-workers
were out for lunch. Minister Ogoomor, a regular
customer at the hotel, was meeting with a member
of Parliament from the opposition party in a
luxurious private room. Ireedui was watching a
special CCTV camera as they dined on Australian
lamb prepared by a French chef and drank a bottle
of 100-year old wine. The scene reminds him of the
lifestyle of rich Arabian sheikhs.
While
checking
equipment,
Ireedui
accidentally activated the hidden microphone
in the private meeting room. The conversation
between Minister Ogoomor and his guest was
not an official discussion, instead it was a secret
talk about how to win some of the large bids
announced by the Ministry of Finance and share
the profit. The conversation touched on how to
embezzle the remaining money in the Stabilization
Fund and also how to get loans guaranteed by the
Development Bank and so transfer all the risks
to the government. This was a perfect example
of powerful officials sacrificing the future of
Mongolia for their personal gains.
Ireedui realized that the Minister was directly
responsible for the government budget. Moreover,
because of such corrupt officials who act only for
their private interests, Mongolia was not developing
as it could, using its natural resources instead
of simply selling much of its wealth. In order to
share his discovery, he posted the recording on his
website without any comments.
In the evening, at 6 pm. Ireedui, heading home
from work, was met by two young men in glasses
and black suits.
- Citizen Ireedui, come with us...

A warm spring has arrived in rural Mongolia, and it has become too hot to wear deel, the
traditional long insulated garment. But despite
the warmth, no sign of grass is seen on the surrounding hills and mountains. The land looks as
gray as the streets of Ulaanbaatar. Mr. Mongol
gently gallops his dark horse through the tumbleweed strewn valley. At 70 years old, Mr. Mongol,
is considered one of ”rare species”. He is among
those who have remained loyal to the fast-disappearing nomadic culture and way of life. Mr.
Mongol, known for his solid but stubborn character, is going to the soum center to pick up his cash
transfer and to buy supplies and food for his family
and livestock. His wife waits for him in their remote mountain home.
Actually, Mr.Mongol is a native of South Gobi
province. He moved to this area three years ago in
search of pastureland since it became impossible
to survive on herding in his home province. His
migration out of South Gobi is a good illustration
of his stubbornness: nowadays, herding and living
on livestock is about as exotic as Tibetan monks
living on a high plateau deep in meditation
isolated from the rest of the world. Moreover, at
this time, everyone is attempting to get a “South
Gobi green card” that allows people to get more
allowances and cash transfers from the government
rather than living in other provinces. His friends
and neighbors laughed when they heard that his
sole reason for leaving the province was to search
for pastureland. These days, most herders5 work
as farm laborers on land close to the big cities or
can be found living in traditional gers along tourist
routes. The few remaining herder families, like Mr.
Mongol’s, are not herding their own livestock but
are called “salaried herders” herding the livestock
and running horses for politicians and rich urban
residents.
It is generally known that the only economic
sectors that grew in the last two decades were mining
and mine related services, entertainment and

27

Îëèãàðõèóä Ìîíãîë Óëðýí ýðõò ýçýä áîëæýý. Çàÿà
èíòåðíýò õóóäàñíààñ 200
ãýð á¿ë ë Ìîíãîëûí ýäèéí
óëñ òºðèéí íàìóóäàä õÿíàëðýí òîãòîîñîí ãýæ óíøæýý.
éí áàíêíû ñòàòèñòèê ñóäàëð Ìîíãîëûí õ¿í àìûí íýã
ü ë æèëèéí íèéò îðëîãûí 45
, íèéò õºðºíãèéí 90 ãàðóé
ýçýìøäýã ãýñýí ä¿í ãàð÷ýý.
ðõèóä îëîí íèéòèéí óóð
ø¿¿õ öàãäàà, òºð çàñãààñ ¿ë
ìýò àâèðëàíà. Àðä ò¿ìýí
ë, ãóéëàí÷ëàë äóíä àìüäàð÷
ä ýäãýýð àéë òàíñàã õóðèì,
èéí áàÿðõàæ, çàðàà ñóâäàí
ýãýýð ÷èìæ, ãèé÷èä íü îðîí
àâòîìàøèíû ò¿ëõ¿¿ð óðàëáýëãýíä ºã÷, õýâëýë ìýäýýëýðýãñë¿¿ä íü äóó íýãòýéãýýð
èí äóóëæ áàéñíûã áîäîí
¿¿ëýõýä ºíººäðèéí èéì
ëä õ¿ðýõýýñ ÷ ººð çàìã¿é
í ìýò.
ÿà, ò¿¿íèé íàéçóóä õààíà þó
ðóó áîëñíîîñ èéì áàéäàë
òóõàé ¿ðãýëæ ë ÿðüäàã.Ìàíãàðóé æèëèéí ºìíºõ 2012
äàðëàëûí ãàð÷ èðñýí õºðºííãóóëèàð ¿åèéã ýðõã¿é ñàëíà.
ä ººðñäèéí íºëººã øóðãóó
ªãëººíèé á¿ðýí íî¸ðõëîî
òóí óäàëã¿é06 öàã. Óëààíð õîò. ªíººõ ë øîðîîí øóóðæ ýõýëñýí àæ. Öàãäàà, àþóñààðàë ºãëºº. Èðýýä¿é êîìõàìãààëàõ õ¿÷èí, öýðãèéí
ðèéíõýý àðààñ í¿äýý íóõëàí
èõýýõýí ºñºæ, áîëîâñðîë,
àæèëäàà ÿâàõààð õºðºíãº
èéí ¿éë÷èëãýýíèé áýëòãýæ
ýý. çàðäàë øºíºæèí 2016
àëò, Ò¿¿íèé íàâñ óíàâ.ñóóæ
í àæèë áîë òàâàí îäòîé
ÈÕ-ä ñîíãîãäñîí õ¿ì¿¿ñ òóñ
çî÷èä áóóäëûí õÿíàëòûí
ñóóäëàà ºâ çàëãàìæëóóëàí
óóäûã óäèðääàã àæèëòàé íü
õ íóóö òîõèðîëöîîã õèéñýí
õàìààã¿é www.ireedui.com
ÿðèàã Çàÿà ãàðóé íàñíû ýíý
éò þì. 40 ñîíñæýý. Ýíý íü
íãðàìì õàíãàìæèéí ÷àäâàðêèíîíû çîõèîë øèã ñîíñòîõ
÷ ýíý òîõèðîëöîî àëü ÷ õóóëü
íæåíåð. Òýð ýõ îðîíäîî
í ñóóðèëñàí ýäèéí çàñãèéã
ãò áàðèìòààñ ÷ èë¿¿ òîãòâîðåëýõ áîëæýý. Ø¿¿õ çàñàãëàë
ëæ äýëõèéä õ¿ëýýí çºâøººõ íàéäâàðòàé àæèëëàäàã
ïðîãðàììóóä çîõèîõ ìºí ÷ áîëîîñîé ãýæ Çàÿà áóóëòýé ÷ îäîîãîîð çî÷èä äîòîäíî.
àæèëëàí ãýð á¿ëýý òýæýýíý.
èãàðõèóä ººðñäèéí ýðõ
à 3000 îð÷èì àì.äîëëàðûí
àâäàã íüòóøààëûã õàìãàààëáàí äóíäàæ àìüäðàõàä
ëöäýã þó ÷ õèéõýýñ áóöàõã¿é
òóëä þì.
ýýä¿é íàéç ë ìýääýã áºãººä
ã õ¿í á¿ð íºõäèéíõºº çºâºð ãàäààäàä èäýâõòí¿¿ä,
èé íèéãìèéí ãàð÷ ìýðãýæý àæèëëàõ, Ìîíãîëäîî ýíý
àã÷èä ðóó äàéðàõ íü íèéòëýã
èë õèéæ àìüäðàõ ãýñýí õî¸ð
í áºãººä ¿¿íä öàãäàà, á¿ð
òîîñ ñ¿¿ëèéíõèéã íü ñîíãîí àíãè íýãòãýëèéã àøèãëàäàã
àãààä èéì áàðñàí õèéñíýý
í àæ. Àðãàà ñîíãîëò èðãýä ¿å
îíãîëä ìºíãº óãààæ, ýñâýë
ñààë òýìöýë õèéõ àâ÷ òýäãýýõóãàöààíä èõ àøèã îëîõîîð
îõèîí áàéãóóëàã÷äûã íýã
ãº îðóóëààä ýäèéí çàñàã
íü, ýñâýýñ õýñýã á¿ëãýýð íü
õààð áóöàæ áóé ãàäààäûíáîëñíîîñ
àäèëõîðèõ
Ìîíãîëûí ñýõýýòí¿¿ä
èéãýýä ¿ð íºëººã¿é òºãñºõíü
îðíîî ìºíãº òàðààõààð íü
ë áîëæýý. Àíãèéíõ íü íàéç
â÷èõààä ºíººäºð õýðýãòýé
¿é “óëñûí íóóö “ áîëîõã¿é”
ü õàÿàä ÿâ÷èõàæõóëãàéëñàí
ð ñàéòäàà ë øîðîíä îðñîí
àõèàä òàéëáàðëàí áè÷á
ä ýíý íü Õóóëüç¿éí ñàéä
Îðîñûí áèçíåñ¿¿äèéí
¿íèé âåá ñàéò áîë ¿íýíäýý
íäûí ÿâæ áóé çàì ìºð,
ðíûõîî õýëõýý õîëáîîíû
¿éä ñàíàà çîâíèñîí ¿çýë
ð Îðîñ óëñàä õýâëýãäñýí
íõ íü èíäýð þì. Ýíä Èðýýìýäýýã âåá õóóäñàí äýýðýý
èã îëîí îëîíãýíý.
ààñ áîëñîí ñýõýýòýí íèéò÷èæ, õ¿÷íèé áàéãóóëëàãóóä
ðèéí õýëýëö¿¿ëýã ºðí¿¿ëäýã
ýõýí àìæèëò îëæ, õýäèéíýý
õèóäàä ¿éë÷èëäýã ìýò áîëæ àíãèéíõíû óëñ òºðèéí
ºãººä óðä áîëîí õîéä õºðøèãõ¿÷íèé áàéãóóëëàãóóäûí
éí áîëæýý. Ãýâ÷ òýä àëü ÷
ìä áàéäàã ñýõýýòí¿¿äèéí ë
õ¿¿ä”, ìýäýýëýã÷èä àæèëÿðüæ áè÷èõýýñ òºäèéëºí
ãýñýí ÿðèà ãàðàõ áîëæýý.
äýãã¿é áºãººä òºâ òàëáàé
õýäèé ÷ îëèãàðõèóäûí òºëºº
îëæ áàéãàà æàãñààëä íýãäýí
íü òèéì àìàð, àþóëã¿é àæèë
æèíä ãàð÷ òýìöýõ íü çºâ ¿¿,
ø þì. ªíãºðñºí øèíý æèþó ãýäýã òàëààð ñ¿¿ëèéí
áàÿðààð òóðø ìýòãýëöýæ
ºäðèéí Çàÿàãèéí íºõºð


Îðõîí ýçäèéíõýý øîðîîí îðäóóäûí íýãèéã ìàíàí ãýðòýý èðýýã¿é
áºãººä äàðàà íü í¿¿ð àì íü õàâòãàé áîëòëîî çîäóóëñàí õ¿í ãýðòýý
èðñýí áàéíà. Îðõîí ýíý òàëààð
“Òîì÷óóä õîîðîíäîî òîîöîî õèéãýýä” ãýñíýýñ ººðèéã äóðäààã¿é
áèëýý. Áîõèð àðãààð ýðõ ìýäýëòýé
áîëñîí õ¿ì¿¿ñ ÿìàð ÷ àðãààð
ººðñäèéãºº óíàõààñ õàìãààëíà
ãýäãèéã Çàÿà îéëãîõ òóë òýãñõèéãýýä äóóã¿é ºíãºðñºí áèëýý. Õóóëü÷äàä àþóëòàé áàéäàã òóë Çàÿà
àëõàì á¿ðýý õÿíàæ ÿâäàã. Îëèãàðõèóäòàé ÿìàð íýã áàéäëààð õóóëü
ýðõç¿éí õóâüä øºðãººëöñºí õ¿ì¿¿ñòýé Çàÿà àæèëëàäàãã¿é áºãººä
ø¿¿õèéí øèéäâýð íü ãýðýý, êîíòðàêòûí ¿íäñýí äýýð ãàðäàãã¿éãýýñ
õîéø õèéõ íü óòãàã¿é þì øèã ãýðýý
õýëöëèéã áîëîâñðóóëàí öàãàà
ºíãºðººíº.
Áàÿí áîëíî ãýæ Çàÿà õýçýý ÷
áîäîæ áàéñàíã¿é. Õàðèí õýçýý
íýãýí öàãò äóíäàæ àíãèéí õýìæýýíä
ñàéõàí àìüäàðíà ãýæ áîäîæ áàéñàí ¿å Çàÿà áîëîí Îðõîíä áèé.
Îäîî ýíý íü áîëîìæã¿é áîëæýý.
çàìä ãîë òààðñàí. Æèæèãõýí ÷
ãýñýí èõ õîë íºõöºë áàéäëààñàà
ªíººäðèéí óðñäàã þì áèëýý.
Äààí÷ óñàðãà çàì ò¿¿íèé õóâüä
çóãòàõ íü áîõèðäñîí áîëîõîîð
óóæ, áàñ ãàðàà ßíç á¿ðèéí ñóäàëáàéõã¿é ìýò. óãààæ ÷ áîëîõã¿é
ãýñýí. Áèä íàð áàñ ìàë÷èí àéë
ãààãààð àæèëã¿éäëèéí ò¿âøèí 20
¿çñýí. õ¿í àìûí 60-80 õóâü íü ÿäóó
õóâü,
- Ààí. Ìèíèé õ¿¿ Íèéãìèéí Õàìãýñýí ä¿í ãàðäàã ÷ íºãºº õóóëèéí
ñóðãóóëüäàà þìààòîî áàðèìò áîäèãààëëûí ßàìíû ÿâóóëñàí óó?
- áàéäàãã¿é òóë àëü õóóëü÷
òîé ¯ã¿é ýý. Õý÷íýýí ñàéí íü ¿íýí
áîëëîî ãýýä õýçýý ÷ ø¿¿ã÷ áîëæ
áîäèòîé áîëîõûã õýí ÷ ìýäýøã¿é.
÷àäàõã¿é þì ÷èíü óóë óóðõàéí
Äóíäàæ îðëîãîòîé äóíäàæ àíãè
èíæåíåð áîëîõîîð øèéäñýí.
óñòàæ àëãà áîëñíîîð Ìîíãîëûí
- ...
íèéãýìä 13.00áàÿæñàí öººíõèéí
õýò öàã. Èðýýä¿éãèéí
¯äèéí
ãàäààä çàõ çýýë, äýëõèéä ¿ðãýëàæëûí åðäèéí íýãýí ºäºð õàíäñàí
áîëîí õýò ÿäóó äèéëýíõ îëîíõèéí
æèëíý. Õàìò àæèëëàãñàä íü ¿äèéí
¿ãýýã¿é, ãàð÷ýý. äîòîîä ¿éë÷öàéíäàà çîãñîíãè Áàéíãûíçàõ çýýë
ãýñýí õî¸ð çýðýãöýý ýäèéí çàñàã
ë¿¿ëýã÷ ªãººìºð ñàéä áóóäëûí
áóé áîëæýý. Áàðóóí á¿ñ íóòàã
òóñãàé ºðººíä ñºðºã íàìûí ïàðäýëõèéí ãèø¿¿íòýé óóëçàæ 2012ëàìåíòûí äóëààðëààñ ¿¿äýí áàé2017 îíóóäàä äýñ äàðààëàí áîëãàà íü õÿíàëòûí äýëãýö äýýð õàðàãñîí ãàí, õóóðàéøëûí íºëººëëººð
äàíà. Àëòààð á¿ðæ äîòîðëîñîí
òàíñàã ºðººíä Ôðàíö òîãîî÷èéí
öºëæèí, áàéíãûí óðñãàëò ãîë ãîðõè
áýëòãýñýí Àâñòðàëè õîíèíû ìàõ
øèðãýæ àëãà áîëñíîîñ ¿¿äýí ºìçîîãëîíãîî 100 æèë äàðñàí òºâ ð¿¿
íºä áîëîí áàðóóíààñ ¿íýòýé
äàðñ øèìýí ñóóõ òýäíèé òºðõ
÷èãëýõ í¿¿äýë èõñýæ Óëààíáààáàéäàë õ¿í àì 2,5 ñàÿä äºõñºí ÷
òàðûí Àðàáûí áàÿ÷óóäòàé òóí íü
òºñòýé õàðàãäàíà.
õîòûí ýð¿¿ë àõóé, õîîë õ¿íñ,
Èðýýä¿é òåõíèê òºõººðºìæ¿¿äóëààí öàõèëãààíû õàíãàìæèä
äèéíõýý àæèëëàãààãáîëæ, õàìãèéí
ãýíýòèéí öîõèëò øàëãàæ áàéãààä óóëçàëòûí ºðººíä áàéðëóóëõ¿éòýí, õàðàíõóé, áîõèð, áàëìàä
ñàí íóóö ìèêðîôîíûã ñàíàìñàðõîò áîëæýý. Îðëîãîã¿é îëîí èðãýä
ã¿é íýý÷èõýâ.
ÿäóóñûí ýãíýýã òýëæ, ãýìò õýðýã,
Ãýòýë òýä àæèë õýðãèéí ÿðèà
òàíõàéðàë Ñàíãèéí ÿàìíààñ çàðõýëöýë áèø èõñýæ öýðýã öàãäààãèéí
òºñºâ äàíõàéæ, ñ¿¿ëäýý öàãäààëàñàí òîìîîõîí òåíäåðèéã õýðõýí
ãèéí áàéãóóëëàãûí îðîëöîî èõýñëóéâàðäàõ, àâëèãàà õýðõýí õóâààæ
ñýíýýð ºíººãèéí öàãäààæñàí óëàâàõ òóõàé ¿ãñýí õóéâàëäàæ áàéõ
ñûí òºðõèéã îëñîí íü ÿäóóðëûí
íü òýð. Óã ëóéâàðòàà Òîãòâîðãèíæèí óðâàëûí ¿ð ñ¿¿ë÷èéí
æèëòûí ñàíä ¿ëäñýí ä¿í ãýëòýé.
Ñ¿¿ëä àâ÷ àøèãëàõ, ýñâýë Õºãæìºíãèéã Ìîñêâàä î÷èõîä ë àþóëã¿é
áàéäëûã ìýäýðñíýý Çàÿà äóðñàõ
ëèéí áàíêààð áàòàëãàà ãàðãóóëæ
ýðñäýëèéã óëñàä ¿¿ð¿¿ëýõ òóõàé
á¿ðäýý íºõöºë áàéäàë ÿàãààä èéì
ÿðèíà. Ýíý áîë ýðõ ìýäýëä îéð
áîëñíûã ãàéõíà.

àëáàí òóøààëòíóóä õýðõýí õóâèéí
àøèã õîíæîîíû òºëºº ýõ îðíûõîî
Ýíý óäààãèéí øèíý æèèðýýä¿éã çîëèîñîëæ áóéí ò¿ãýýìýë
ëèéí áàÿðûí ãîë òºâººð Çàÿàãèéíõ
æèøýý òààðñàí áºãººä ãóðâàí íàéç
ýýëæ áàéëàà.
Óëñûíõàà òºñºâ ñàíõ¿¿, îðá¿ñã¿é íü àéë÷ëàí èðýõ äºõºæ
ëîãûí ìåíåæìåíòèéã ãàðäàí
áóéä îíû çààã äýýð áîäëûí
óäèðääàã ñàéä íü ìýäýõã¿éäýý áèø
õýëõýýíä èéí àâòæýý. Õÿòàäûí
ñàíààòàéãààð õóâèà áîäîæ áàéãààç¿¿í íóòàãò íü áàÿëãàà õóðäàí
ãààñ ë óëñ îðîíóðãóóëñàí õóäàëóðãàöòàé õ¿íñíèé íîãîî Ìîíãîë
äàæ èõ ìºíãº îëîõûí õýðýýð õºãàéëûí ãàë òîãîî, õîîëíû æîðûã
æèæ ÷àäàõã¿é áàéãààã Èðýýä¿é
á¿ðä¿¿ëýõ áºãººä Ñîëîíãîñûí
îéëãîâ. Òýð áóñäàä ÷ ãýñýí ¿¿íèéã
áèëýý. Âåá ñàéòûí ñ¿¿ëèéí
îéëãóóëàõûí òóëä áè÷ëýãèéã ÿìàð
ìãèéí èõ õàíäàëòòàé áàéãàà
íýãýí òàéëáàðã¿éãýýð âåá ñàéòäàà
ìýäýýëëèéã ã¿éëãýí õàðâàë:
îðóóëëàà.
äààäûõàíä íàéð òàâüæ
Îðîéí 18.00 öàã. Àæëàà òàðàí
òåãèéí îðäóóäàà õóâààæ
ãàð÷ èðæ áóé Èðýýä¿éã õàð õîñëîë,
ð áàéõ óó?
í¿äíèé øèëòýé õî¸ð çàëóó òîñîí
îíãîë Óëñ óíäíû óñ èìàâàâ.
äýý. ¯íýý ñààõ, ààðóóë èäýý
ãó÷ààä æèë áàëáóóëñàí õ¿í
îã÷ áîëîõîä õ¿ðëýý! á¿õ þìûã -Èðãýí Èðýýä¿é, òà áèäýíòýé
õèéõ, ìàëä ÿâàõ ãýýä
äýý. Íýã õýñýã áààð óëñ áîëãîºõºí ñýðãýýëòèéí ìºíãººð
õàìò ÿâíà óó. îðîõ øàõñàí. Òàíñàã
ë ñîíèðõäîã áîëòîé. Îéð õàâüä
ñîí õýðýãò
í, Îðõîí ãîëóóä äýýð óñàí
Õºäººä õýëñíèéõýý òºëºº
ìàøèí óíàà áàãøðààä áàéõã¿é,
íàéð ãýæ óðèí öàã õýäèéíý
àéãóóëàõ òºñë¿¿ä çîãñîæ
èðæÒàíñàãìààãèéí Î÷èðáàò ÷ áîëæ
õºâºíòýé äýýëòýé ÿâàõàä
íîãîîí ¿éëäâýð çàâîä, çºâõºí
¿ã¿é, íºõºí ñýðãýýëò ÷ ¿ã¿é ººð
õàëóóöàõààð áîëñîí ÷íàìàéã ãó÷èí
óëàìæëàëò ìàë àæ àõóéãààñ
¿çëýý. Íýã çóðàà÷ áîðîî õóð
î.
îãò îðîîã¿éãýýñ ºâñ çóðæ áàéãàà. Áè
ç¿éë áàéõã¿é áîëîõîîð ãàäààä
æèë áàð áîëãîí íîãîî öóõóéõ
ºð çàñàã ºð çýýëýý äàðàõûí
øèíæã¿é, óóë òîëãîä Óëààíáààòºäèéã¿é áèäýíä áàñ ñàéõàí
íýã èõ ôîòîãåíè÷íûé õ¿í áèø
47-ð ºðãºðãººñáàéíà îëáîð-Òýãæ
òàðûí ãóäàìæòýð áèç. Çàðèì õ¿ì¿¿ñ
ñàíàãäàõ þì õîéø ø¿¿.
áîëîõîîð àäèë çýãýë ñààðàë
ÿâóóëàõûãáèçíåñ ìààíü ñàéí
ºíãºòýé õàðàãäàíà. Õàìõóóë õèéñáàéãààä õîðèãëîñîí õóó“Õýçýý áàð áîëîõ ãýíýý?” ãýæ
íóóöààð “îðæ èðñýí” îí çàëóó õºíäèé äóíäóóð, õýí ÷ ÿâäàãã¿é
ñýí èðýýä àì àñóóäàã áàéñàí...
áîëáîë öóöëàí ãàäààäûí
íèóäàä ëèöåíç îëãîæýý.
õóðäíû çàì äàãàí íýãýí“áàð” áàãàéã¿é íèñäýã òýðýã íóòãèéíªíãºðñºí 20 æèëä áè õ¿í ãýäýã
ëîí óëñûí áàéãóóëëàãóóäûí
ðààí ìîðüòîé ãýëäð¿¿ëíý. ªäãºº
õàíòàéãàà íèéëæ áàéãààä îëîîä
¿ãèéã îëíû ºìíº äàõèæ õýëýýìæààðáîäîëòîé ÿâàà. Òýãâýë íàñûã ñýòãýëèéíõýý ìóõàðò èòãýæ
70 ã¿é ÷ çîîãëîæ ÿâàà ýíý ºâãºí
àâàõ õýðýãæ¿¿ëñýí “Ìîíóøèã”, “ÄÎÕ-ã¿é Ìîíãîë”
áîë ÿâñàí ø¿¿. ªíºº ìàðòàãäàí
ºíºº öàãò óëàì á¿ð öàãò õýäèéäóðòàé ¿åäýý õîò îðæ õýäýí
áºð¿¿äèéí ìºíãºáàéíà. Ñàÿõóñòàæ áóé í¿¿äëèéí ¿ã ìîîäíîîñ
õ¿¿õäýý ýðãýýä àâèëãà÷ãýýð “áàð” ãýäýã ñî¸ë, àõóé
àëààñàíä îðæýý ãýõ áåíçèí
àìüäðàëäàà ¿íýí÷ Ìîíãîë ãóàé
íààñ Äàðõàíä îíãîöíûìýò
ãàðñàí ÷ 30 æèëèéí ºìíºõººð
õºâºðíº.
þì. áîë Ìîíãîë ìààíü Àçèéí áàð
Íóòàã óñàíäàà ìóéõàð çºð¿¿¿éëäâýðëýýä ýõýëëýý. Ãàéã¿é
íäàæ àíãèéíõíû íèéòëýã
äýýðýýý áîëëîî ø¿¿ äýý”. óóëûí
õÿìäõàí þì áèëýý.
óëñ àëäàðòàé òýðáýýð
îëîõ äóíä ãàðûí æèéïýýðýýáàéìóõàð äàõü ãýðòýý õºãøíºº ¿ëäýýæ
Ìàíàé íóòãèéí óðäõàí
Òºãñãºëä ñýòã¿¿ë÷ çàëóó
¿é àëò çýñíèé ãàäààäûí
õýäýí ìàëàà ò¿ð õàðæ áàé ãý÷èõýýä
ñàíàæèëäàà ÿâàõ çàìäàà òîì
íîìûí çîõèîã÷ Ãàíòºãñººñ ÿàõóâèéí õààãäñàí àõëàõ
ñóìûí òºâ îðæ òýòãýìæèéí ìºíãºº
óóðõàé ñóðãóóëèéí õàðàãäàíà
ãààä íîìîî àíãëè õýëíýý õºðñóðäàã õ¿¿ãýý õè÷ýýëä íü
àâàí, õîîë áîëñîí òàëààð áàçààáèëýý. Èõ ë òîì õîò áàðèõ íü
â¿¿ëýõ õ¿íñíèé ç¿éë ñîíèðõÿâíà.øóóãèàä áàéñàí. Þìàà
õààð ÿâæ áàéãàà íü ýíý.
ãýýä
ñîíä òýðýýð “Ìàíàé ñ¿¿ëèéí
èíèé õ¿¿ãèéí øàëãàëò ø¿¿óõààä äóóñàíãóóòàà áóöààãààä Ìîíãîë æèëèéí ò¿¿õ áîë ¿íäàðâàí ãóàé óóë íü ªìíºãîâü
éí óó?
àéìãèéí õ¿íáèä çàñàãëàëàà õýðõýí
áóë÷èõñàí þì ãýõ÷èâ. Õàìàã
ñýíäýý ë äýý. Ãýòýë öºëæèëàéí. Ýíýñàâàà ãýð à÷ààëæ áàéòèéí óëìààñ òýíä ìàë ìàëëàõ
áàéøèí óëèðàëä á¿õ õèñàéæðóóëñàí òóõàé þì. Ýíý áîë
ý “À” ãàð÷ áàéãàà.
àðãàã¿é óëñ íü îðíûõîî õºãæëèéí
ãàà þì øèã ë àâààä ÿâ÷èõñàí.
áèä áîëñîí òóë áýë÷ýýð óñ
íãèéíõ íü çóãààëãà íü ãî¸
áàðààäàí ýíý íóòàãò èðýýä ãóðâàí
Òîðòîé õàøààí äîòîð õýäýí
òàëààð õýðõýí ñàíàà ñýòãýë
í óó? çýýð áýë÷ýýä õîöîðñîí
æèë íýãäñýí, Ìîíãîëûí òºð õýðõýí
áîëæýý. Õ¿í á¿ð ªìíºãîâüä
öàãààí
ñòîé þì. Õîéä Ñýëýíãýýñ íààø
ñóóðüøèæ èë¿¿ èõ áîëæ ººð÷ëºãäñºí
áàéõ ãî¸ áîëñîí. Áèäíèé
îð÷èí ¿åèéí õàëàìæ, òýòãýìæ

òàòñàí ãàçàð äîîãóóðõ õîîëîéãîîð óðñãàäàã óñ íü õàðèí
õýâýýðýý ¿ëäýæ. Èõ öýâýðõýí
óñ áàéäàã. Ìàíàéõàí íîäíèíãèéí ãàíãààð ªãèé íóóð øèðãýñýí áàéñíûã ãóðâàí ºäºð êðàíòûã
íü íýýãýýä ä¿¿ðãý÷èõíý áèëýý.
Àëü õàâðûí ¿åðýýð îðæ èðñýí
óñûã õàäãàëæ áàéãààä îðóóëæ
èðëýý ãýæ áàéãàëèéí ÿàìíû
ñàéä çóðàãòààð õýëæ áàéíëýý.
Ñàéä õ¿¿ã Îðîñóóä ¿åð óñíààñ
áóðèàäóóäûã õàìãààëñàí ãýýä
îäîíãîîð øàãíàâ óó äàà. Íºãºº
Ãýðëýý õ¿¿ãèéíõ òýíä òàðèà
òàðüæ áàéãàà. Óñíû ãà÷ààëã¿é,
ìàëûí õºë ãýõã¿é èõ àÿòàéõàí
íóòàã îëîîä ôåðì íýýñýí.
Óëààíáààòàð-Áàÿí-ªëãèéí òºìºð çàìààñ õîëã¿é, åðäºº
õàæóóä íü. 2121-ð òîî÷èã ãýõýýð
õ¿ì¿¿ñ àíäàõã¿é. Áè õààÿà
î÷èæ ìàëûí òýæýýë, ãóðèë,
æèìñ àâäàã þì. ªâºº íü óñàí
¿çìýíä íóãàñã¿éã ÷è þó ýñ
àíäàõàâ. ¯íäýñíèé ¿éëäâýðèéíõýý àëèì, õàð ÷àâãûã õ¿ðòýë
òýäíèéõýýñ àâ÷ áàéíà…”
Çàÿà îðîéí õîîëîî õèéõýýð çàâäàæ áàéòàë áàãà õ¿¿
Öýíãýë äýãäýí ã¿éæ èðýýä “Ýýæ
ýý áè òàíä òóñëàõ óó, þó õèéõýâ?” ãýíãýý çóðàãòàà àñààòàë
ñ¿¿ëèéí õýäýí äîëîî õîíîãèéí
òóðø áåñòñåëëåðûí æàãñààëòûí òàâäóãààðò ÿâàà ýäèéí
çàñàã÷ Ä. Ãàíòºãñèéí “Ìîíãîëûí
èõ ¿ñðýëò” íîìûí àíãëè îð÷óóëãûí íýýëòèéã
¿ç¿¿ëæ
áàéãààòàé òààðàâ. Öýíãýë õ¿¿
íèéãìèéí óõààí ñîíèðõäîã
àõûãàà äóóäàâ. Ýíý àðãà õýì-

It is generally known
that the only economic
sectors that grew in the
last two decades were
mining and mine related
services, entertainment
and construction sectors.
Even though there
has been an economic
òóõàé ò¿¿õ þì. Áàéãàëèéí
áàÿëàã èõòýé áóñàä óëñ îðîí
ñóðãàìæ àâàõàä õýðýã áîëîõ þì
áîëâóó ãýæ áîäñîí õýðýã” õýìýýí õàðèóëëàà.
Çàÿà “Íýýðýí òèéì ø¿¿.
2012 îíû ñîíãóóëèéí äàðàà óëñ
îðîí äàÿàð õýëýëö¿¿ëýã áîëæ
óóë óóðõàéãààñ îëîõ ìºíãºº
þóíä çàðöóóëàõ âý ãýæ õºäºº
õîòã¿é ÿðèëöàöãààñàí. Õºãøèí,
çàëóóã¿é á¿ãä ë óóë óóðõàéãààñ
õýò õàìààðàëòàé áîëîõûí óðøèã, èðãýäýý áýëýí ìºíãºíººñ
õàðààò àìüäðàëòàé áîëãîõûí
õîð õºíººëèéã îéëãîõ áîëæ,
“Ãîëëàíä ºâ÷èí”, “Ïåðñèéí
áóëàíãèéí ñèíäðîì” çýðýã íýð
òîìü¸îã àíäàõã¿é ñàéí ìýääýã
áîëñîí äîî” ãýæ áîäîâ. Ò¿¿íèé
áîäëûã òààñàí þì øèã òîì õ¿¿
íü “ Ýýæ ýý, ìàíàé óëñ ÿäóó
îðîí áàéñàí ãýñýí ÿàæ îäîîãèéíõ øèã áîëñîí áý?” ãýâ.
Çàÿà “Ýíý òóõàé ÷ èõ óðò
ÿðèà áîëíî äîî. Õàðèí ò¿¿õ íü
áîãèíî õóãàöààíûõ þì. Ýýæ íü
òîâ÷õîí õýëæ ºãºõèéã õè÷ýýå.
Áàÿðàà ìèíèé õ¿¿, ýýæäýý
óëààí ëîîëü àìòëàõ ñ¿ìñ áýëäýýä ºãäºº. ×àöàðãàíû òîñ,
îëèâûí òîñ õî¸ð õàëáàãà õèéãýýä äýýð íü æààõàí ãè÷ íýìýýä
ñàéí õóòãààðàé. ßìààíû ñàéõàí
øèíý áÿñëàã àâñàí, óëààí
ëîîëüòîé õîëüæ àìòòàé çóóø
õèéíýý” ãýýä öààø ºã¿¿ëýâ. “Åð
íü áîë óóë óóðõàéãààñ ýõòýé
þìàà, ìèíèé õ¿¿. Áèäíèéã
çàëóó áàéõàä ìàíàé îðîíä óóë
óóðõàéí òýñðýëò áîëæ ýíä
òýíäã¿é í¿¿ðñ, çýñ, àëòíû îðä

á¿ðýëäýæ áàéâ. Áèçíåñ çºâõºí
òºðèéíõ áàéõàà áîëèîä äýýðýýñ
íü õºðºíãº îðóóëàëòûí òºñë¿¿äèéã óë ñóóðüòàé áîäîæ
áîëîâñðóóëæ, øóäàðãààð øàëãàðóóëààä èðýõýýð çààâàë òºðä
øóðãàëæ áàéæ áèçíåñ õèéõ
øààðäëàãàã¿é, õàðèí ÷ ñîíèðõëûí çºð÷èë ýíýý òýðýý ãýýä
òåíäåð àâàõàä òºâºãòýé áîëîîä
ýõýëñýí. Åð íü õ¿¿ ìèíü àâëèãà
ãýäýã þìíû ÷èíü ãîë àþóë íü
îëíû õèéõ á¿òýýõ èòãýë, ñýòãýëèéã àëäàãäóóëäàã þì ø¿¿
äýý. Áèçíåñèéí àðãà óõààí,
ìýäëýã ÷àäâàð, õè÷ýýë ç¿òãýëýýðýý óðàëäàõûí îðîíä òºðä
îðîõ, îéðòîõ àðãà ñ¿âýã÷ëýõ,
õýýë õàõóóëèàðàà óðàëäàõààð
óëñ îðíû õºãæëèéí ¿íäýñ òàñàð÷ áàéãàà íü òýð äýý ãýæ
õýëýýä øèðýýãýý çàñàæ äóóñàâ.
Ãàë òîãîîíû ºðººíä îðæ èðýýä
çîãñîæ áàéñàí ààâûãàà õ¿¿õä¿¿ä ñàÿ ë àíçààð÷ “ªº ààâ
àæëààñàà èð÷èõýæ” õýìýýí õººð
áîëöãîîâ.
Õîîë èäýõ çóóð õî¸ð õ¿¿ íü
ààâ ýýæ õî¸ðîî ýýëæëýí áààõàí
àñóóëòààð áóëæ ãàðàâ. “Ààâ àà,
ìàíàé óëñ óóðõàéãààñ èõ ìºíãº
îëñîí óó, òýðèéãýý þóíä çàðñàí
áý?” ãýíý. “Ýõýíäýý ÷ òèéì
ñàéíã¿é ë áàéñàí. Õàðèí 2012
îíû ñîíãóóëèéí äàðàà Îþó
Òîëãîé, Òàâàí Òîëãîé òºñëèéí
ò¿íø¿¿äòýéãýý ãýðýýã ººð÷ëºõ
òóõàéä õàðèëöàí íààøòàé òîõèðîëöîîíä õ¿ð÷ öààøèä áàéãóóëàãäàõ ãýðýýíèé íºõöºë¿¿äèéã ñàéæðóóëàõàä çºâëºõ
äîòîîäûí áîëîí îëîí óëñûí

in place, other sectors
simply did not develop or
disappeared altogether.

28

construction sectors. Even though there
has been an economic diversification
policy in place, other sectors simply did
not develop or disappeared altogether.
A few years ago, large subsidies were
allocated to support crop farming. It
seems, however, that politicians and
their cohorts were among the only ones
who benefited from the subsidy. Much
21
of the agricultural land was held by
large companies, which in turn were
owned by politicians and their cronies.
This did not boost competitiveness
or productivity but simply made a few
individuals wealthier at a high cost to
taxpayers. The failure of this so-called
incentive can be clearly seen today
as herders, such as Mr. Mongol, eat
Chinese produced flour. Due to the
budget deficits of the last several years,
crop farmers have not received any
subsidies at all. Furthermore, authorities
allocated much of the funding of the
“Virgin Land Campaign 4, 5, and 6” to
21
their own companies and local councils
under the pretext of developing publicprivate-civil society partnerships. The
government shouldered the burden and
risks of these inefficient programs and
projects. To date, no one has been held
accountable for this colossal waste of
state funding.
ÍÝÝËÒÒÝÉ
Through diligenceÍÈÉÃÝÌ ÔÎÐÓÌ
and hard work,
Mr. Mongol maintains over 500
animals, including sheep, goats, horses,
and cows. Thus, he is considered quite
wealthy. However, most meat, dairy,
wool, skin and hide businesses buy their
raw materials from commercial farms
and Mr. Mongol does not earn enough
money from his livestock to keep
his family fed ÝÝËÒÒÝÉ Í ÈÉÃÝÌ ÔÎherd growing.
and his ÐÓÌ
Í
Herders’ living standards continue
to be very dependent on government
cash transfers. Despite the profitability
of raising more goats, Mr. Mongol
“stubbornly” refuses allowing goats to
make up more than 10% of his total
herd.

íýðìýýñ áîëîâ. Ãàäààäûí îëîí
õàíäèâëàã÷èä ¿éë àæèëëàãààãàà
çîãñîîñîí ÷ Óíäðààãèéí àæèëëàäàã ÷èãëýëýýð ãàäààäûí õàíäèâëàã÷èä áîëîí áàðóóíû ñ¿ì¿¿ä
òóñëàìæ ºãñºí õýâýýð áàéãàà òóë
áàñ ÷ ãýæ ÿàõàâ. Èðãýíèé íèéãìèéí
áàéãóóëëàãóóäàä èðãýäèéí îðîëöîî èõýýõýí ñóë, òýäýíä ¿ë èòãýõ
íü ýëáýãøæýý.
Õºðºíãèéí òºëºâëºëò, ã¿éöýòãýëèéí àëäààòàé áîäëîãîîñ ¿¿äýí
àðâààä æèë äàìíàí ¿ðãýëæèëæ
áàéãàà õ¿íä ¿éëäâýðèéí öîãöîëáîðûí áàéãóóëàëòàä íàñààðàà
ç¿òãýæ ÿâàà ýð íºõðºº áàðààäàí
õºäººãèéí ýëñýíä ýýðýãäýæ äóóñëàà õýìýýí Óíäðàà ãîìäîëëîíî.
Ýöñèéí íàéäâàð íü íýýëòýý õ¿ëýýæ
áóé õ¿íä ìåòàëëóðãèéí óäààí
ò¿¿õòýé, öàãòàà çóóíû á¿òýýí áàéãóóëàëò õýìýýí òóíõàãëàæ áàéñàí
¿éëäâýðò ýð íºõºð íü ãàéã¿éõýí
àëáàíä òîìèëîãäîõ ÿâäàë. Ãýòýë
õýí íýãýí îëèãàðõè ¿éëäâýðò ºíäºð õ¿¿òýé çýýë îëãîñîí ñóðàã
äóóëäàõ áîëñíîîð ýçýìøëèéí
ìàðãààí ¿¿äâýë ýíýõ¿¿ íàéäëàãà
òàëààð áîëîõ àþóë ÷ ¿¿ñæýý. Ýíý
á¿õ íºõöºë áàéäëûã Óíäðàà “ãàðöóäààí õóãàöààãààð õàäãàëàõ çîã¿é í¿õýíä óíàñàí øàðãà÷èí øàððèóëàëòòàé õàòààñàí, ëààçàëñàí îäîî áàéãàà õ¿ì¿¿ñ ìýò” ãýæ òîäîðõàà äîëîîæ áóé ãýâýë áàðàã
õ¿íñíèé èäýâõèòýé õýðýãëýã÷èä èíãýñãýýä áîëíî.
õîéëíî.
áîëñîîð äàðóé àðàâ øàõàì æèëèéã
ÝíýÓã íü òóõàéí îðõèñîí áàññóìàíä äóòóó ¿åä óóë óóðõàé¿äæýý. ¯íäýñíèé õºðñ øîðîîíîî ñåéíààñ îðæ èðýõ îðëîãûã òºâëºãààñ ãàäíà òºñºâ áàÿí áàéõ
óðãóóëæ ºñãºñºí õ¿íñíèé îëäîö ¿åèéí ¿ð àøèãã¿é õºðºíãº îðóóð¿¿ëýí òýðã¿¿ëýõ ñàëáàðóóäûã
îëîí æèëèéí ºìíººñ ñ¿éðñýí ëàëòûí óë ìºð íýëýýä áèé. 5000
ñàíõ¿¿æ¿¿ëýõ çîðèëãîòîé áàéñàí
áýë÷ýýðèéí ìàë àæ àõóé, ãàçàð õ¿íèé ñóóäàëòàé ñî¸ëûí îðäîí
Õºãæëèéí áàíêíû õýðýãæ¿¿ëñýí
òàðèàëàíãàà äàãààä ìºí ë áàéõã¿é áàðèõààð õîòîîñ áàðèëãûí êîì- íü
òºñë¿¿äèéí õàìãèéí áîäèòîé
áîëæýý. Ìàõíû áîäëîãîã¿é ýêñ- ïàíè èðæ, ãóðâàí áîëñîí ÷ îëîí ¿ð
ýíý ¿éëäâýð æèë äàìíóóëàí
ïîðò, çàõ çýýëèéí ìîíîïîëü ýð- õî¸ð ÷ óäàà òºñëèéã ñàíõ¿¿æ¿¿ëñíýýð
àøèãã¿é õºðºíãº íýìæ áàòëóóáàðüñàí ÷ äóóñãàëã¿é õàÿàä
õèéí òºëººõ îëèãàðõèóäûí òýìö- ëàíáàíê ººðºº ÷ äàìïóóðààä áàéãàà
ëèéí ãàëä á¿ñ íóòãèéí áýë÷ýýðèéí ÿâñàí íüÄàõèàä ë óëñûí ºðèéã íýìýãþì. îäîî áàëãàñ áîëæýý. Õàðèí
àæ àõóé áóñíèæ, ãåíèéí ººð÷- ýìíýëýã, ñóðãóóëèóäàä îðóóëñàí èõ
ä¿¿ëýõ íýãýí øàëòãààí áîëîîä
ëºëòòýé óðãàìëûí òàðèàëàí õýìæýýíèéÎðëîãî áàéõã¿éãýýñíü
óäæýý. õºðºíãº îðóóëàëò áîëæ
ýðõáèø õ¿íäîëîí æèë þì áîëîÌîíãîëûí ýìçýã õºðñ øîðîîã
äàíñ íü ÷èãëýñýí óëàé÷èõààä
øèìã¿éò¿¿ëýí àòàðøóóëæýý. õîîðîî íýëýýä õýðýãòýéÒîãòâîðæèëòûí
áàéãàà Õºãæëèéí, þì áîëñîí
íü õàðàãäàíà. Òóõàéëáàë 1000Áýë÷ýýðèéí òóõàé á¿òýë ìóóòàé
ñàí ãýõ ãî¸, õîîñîí íýðñ øèã þì
ààäõàí õ¿íòýé ýíý ñóìûí 10 æèëèéí
õóóëü ãàðñàí íü á¿¿ð íýðìýæ,
¿ëäâýë ÿàíà ãýæ áîäîõ çóóðàà Çàÿà
ñóðãóóëüä ºíäºð õóðäíû èíòåðò¿¿íèéã òîéðñîí òýìöýë, ºâºð
òàëõ ç¿ñýæ çîãñîâ. Õîîñîí äàíñûã
íýòòýé êîìïüþòåðèéí ëàáîðàòîðè,
õîîðîíäûí äàéòàë íü óëàìæëàëò àíãëè îëîí æèë õèé õîîñîí öààñàí
íü õýëíèé ëèíãàôîí òàíõèì,
àæ àõóéã ñ¿éð¿¿ëýõ áàñ íýã òîì çàéíû ñóðãàëòûí òóñãàé ºðºº ãýõàðãàëæ
ìºíãº õýâëýõ çàìààð ìýò
øàëòãààí áîëñîí àæ. Ìàë÷èä áàéõã¿é þìã¿é.¿¿äýí èíôëÿöè õýäýí
áàéñíààñ
àðãàà áàðàí ìàë ñ¿ðãýý çàðæ
çóóí õóâèàð ºñºæ, ºìíºõ 10
ªäºðæèí õàëóóí íàðàíä ÿâîëíîîðîî Óëààíáààòàðûí çàõààð ñààð ÿäàð÷ òóéëäñàí Ìîíãîë ºâãºí òîî
æèëèéíõýýñ ýðñ ººð ¿íý,
ñóóðüøèí õàøàà áàéøèí, îéð çàñàã äàðãûí ýõíýðèéí àæèë- 000
õýëýãääýã áîëæýý. 100
çóóðûí õýðýãëýýíä ñ¿¿ëèéí õýäýí ëóóëäàã ãóàíçàíä àðàéõèéí 600-ãèéí
òºãðºãèéí ¿íýòýé òàëõàà îðæ
òºãðºãºº áàðñààð ÿäóóñûí ýãíýýã èðýâ.
òàëõ ø¿¿ õýìýýí èíýýëäýõ òýäíèé
àâàõûí òóëä àð, ºâðèéí õààëãà
- Àëèâ Çàÿàãèéí õ¿¿õä¿¿ä ó÷ðûã
õàéí õººöºëäºæ “ªìíºãîâèéíòàë
ºðãºòãºæýý. Ìîíãîëûí áàðóóí
íàðãèàãõ¿¿ ìèíü àÿãà öàé õèéíîãîîí êàðò”-íû òºëºº àìèà òàâüæ
¿íäñýíäýý óóãóóë èðãýäýýñýý ºí÷- ãýýä ºãºº÷.îëîõ ÷ äàãàí èíýýõ àæ.
íü ¿ë
- Öàé áàéõã¿é.
áàéõàä¿ëäýæ, õóóðàéäóðààðàà
ðºí òýíäýýñ ñàéí ñàéð, ãîâü
Òºãðºãèéí õàíøíû õýëáýëçýë
- Òýãâýë ÿäàæ óñ áàéíà óó?
í¿¿æ èðñýí ãýõýýð ò¿¿íèé õýð çýðýã
öºëºðõºã á¿ñ áîëñíîîð Õºâñãºëàéõòàð ñàâëàãààòàé òóë þàíü ë
çºð¿¿ä áîëîõ íü òîäîðõîé. Í¿¿ñýí
- Àÿãà óñ 1 þàíü óëñ îðíû
Áóëãàí-Ñýëýíãèéí íóòàãò äèéëýíõ
ýöñèéí ä¿íäýý ø¿¿ äýý. ýäèéí
- Ìîíãîë ìºíãººð àéë ºðõèéí
öîð ãàíö øàëòãààí íü ò¿¿íèé õóâüä
ìîíãîë÷óóä í¿¿äýëëýí èðñýí áàéçàñàã òºäèéã¿é áîë õýä ãýñýí ãàë
ìàëàà¯ëäñýí öººí õýäýíáàéñàí
íà. õàðèóëàõ áýë÷ýýð æóóë÷íû ¿ã âý õ¿¿ ìèíü?
òîãîîíû òîîöîîíû ä¿íã íýãòãýæ
ãýäãèéã ñîíñîîä õ¿ì¿¿ñ “òýíýã”-èéã
- Òºãðºã àâàõã¿é óäæýý.
êîìïàíèéí òàíèëöóóëãàä Ìîíãîë
æèíëýõ áîëñîîð ýý ºâºº. Îäîî
íüáîë í¿¿äýë÷äèéí îðîí ãýæöàãò
á¿ð ÷ ãàéõíà. Ó÷èð íü ºíºº áè÷èã- ÷èíü ìîíãîë äóíä ñóðãóóëüä íèéãÓíäðàà ìºíãº öààñíààñ
ÿëãààã¿é áîë÷èõîîä áàéíà ø¿¿
ìàë äàãàæ í¿¿äýëëýí àìüäàðíà
äýõ àâ÷ ¿íýíäýý í¿¿äëèéí ñî¸ë
ìèéí óõààíû õè÷ýýë çààäàã Õèøãýäýã äàÿàí÷ëàí ñóóãàà õóâðàãààñ
äýý.
èðãýíøëýýñ óë ìºð ÷ ¿ëäñýíã¿é.
ãýý ð¿¿ çàëãàí ÿàðóóëàõàä áàãø
- Àðàé ÷ äýý, Ìîíãîë õ¿í áàéòÿëãààã¿é òîîñò õîðâîîãîîñ òàñàðÀðõàíãàé àéìãààñ ñîíãîãäñîí ëààíàðûí àæèëá¿ð õÿòàä ìºíãººð
õàÿõ òóõàé öóãëààíä
àÿãà óñàà...
ñàí õýðýã þì. Òèéìýýñ ÷ ìàë÷èí
ÓÈÕ-ûí ãèø¿¿ä ýðõ áàðèã÷ ýâñýëä çàðàõ ãýæ ¿¿?
ñóóæ áîëçîîíîîñ õîöðîõ áîëñíîî
ãýõýýð òîì õîò äàãàñàí ôåðìèéí
õàìààðàãääàãã¿é ó÷èð ýñâýë
íºãººõ íü äóóëãàæýý. Õèøãýý á¿Ìîíãîë ãóàé ¿ãýý ã¿éöýä õýëæ
àæ àõóéí òóñëàõ àæèëòàí,àéìàãòàà
õàíãàëòòàé òàòààñ, òóñëàìæ àâ÷ ÷àäàëã¿é óõààí àëäàí ãîðûã íýãýíòýý
òýëã¿é ãýðëýëòèéí óíàëàà.
óëàì á¿ð õîâîðäñîí æóóë÷äûí çàì
÷àäàõàà àìüäàðäàã “Ñî¸ëûí
àìññàíààñ õîéø ãàçðûí ýðõýì
äàãóó ãýðò áîëüæýý.
...”ÓÈÕ, Çàñãèéí ãýð á¿ë çîõèîõîî
õîéøëóóëñàí ñàíàà÷ëàãààð
ãèø¿¿í ªãººìºðèéíãýæ ýíý õî¸ðòîî
ºâèéã õàìãààëàõ õºòºëáºðò” õàìÕààëãà ë îéëãîõ áîëõîøèãíîäîã ÷ õºíãºí õàÿãðàãäñàí õ¿ì¿¿ñèéãòîãøñîíîîð Çàÿà- áàéãóóëàâ” ãýñýí òîìîîñ òîì ãóíèãààð
ãèéí õ¿¿õýä àõóéí í¿¿äëèéí
æýý. Ìîíãîë ãóàéí àäèëóíàãàí íàé- òàéä¿¿ðýí ÿâäàã àæýý. Õèøãýýãèéí
ñóìûí ýìíýëýãò òýð óõààí
çóóäûí íýã Óíäðàà ñàëõè òàòóóëàí îðëîî. Äàðàëò íü èõñýæ óõààí
î÷ñîí öóãëààíä õýâëýë ìýäýýëìàë àæ àõóéã æèíõýíý óòãààð íü
ýðõëýíèðýíãýý ºìíèéí èõ ýëñýí àëäñàí ãýíý. Ýíý ÷ ÿàõàâ õýçýýíèé
îðæ áóé öººí àéëûí õóâüä
ëèéí õýðýãñë¿¿äèéí àëü íü ÷
ººðñäèéíõºº áèø õîòûí áàÿ÷óóä,
äàëàéã õàëààñëààä èðñíýý èëòãýí èéì. Ãýòýë ýì÷ òóë õ¿ì¿¿ñ ñàíàñàí
îðîëöîîã¿é á¿ñã¿é ñàíààíä
óÿà÷ óëñòºð÷äèéíÒýðáýýð õºëñººð
èíýýõ íü òîä. ìàëûã ë Ñàéíøàí- îðîìã¿é þì äóóëãàâ. Òýð ÿðüæ áàéëàà.
áîäñîíîî ÷ºëººòýé õîäîîäíû
ìàëëàæ¯éëäâýðëýëèéí öîãöîëáîðò õîðò õàâäàðòàé áîëæýý. Øàëòãààí
äûí ºãäºã þì.
Õèøãýý óëñ òºð, ýäèéí çàñãèéí
Åðºíõèéäºº Ìîíãîë óëñûí õ¿íèéã íü óíäíû óñíû áîõèðäîë. Ñ¿¿ëèéíìýäàæèëëàõ ººðèéí ãýð á¿ëèéíìàë
á¿ëýãëýë¿¿ä ãàçàð îðîí, ýðõ
àæ àõóéí ñàëáàðûí ä¿ð àìüäàðäàã. æèë¿¿äýäòºëººõ¿íèé íýã íü ¿¿ãýýð
äàãàí ãîâüä àæèëëàæ òºðõ íýã
ëèéí õî¸ð õ¿÷ ¿çýæ, á¿ð àëëàãà,
èéìýðõ¿¿îðîí íóòãèéí óóðõàé, ò¿¿Õºäºº áºãººä óóë ýð¿¿ë ìýíäèéí ºâäºæ áàéãàà ãýíý.
õ¿÷èðõèéëýë ¿éëäýõýýñ áóöàõã¿é
íèéã äàãàñàíàæèëëàäàã ÒÁÁ áàéÓëñààñ õºðºíãº îðóóëñàí á¿÷èãëýëýýð ¿éë÷èëãýý, çóãàà
áîëæ áàéãàà òàëààð õ¿ì¿¿ñýýñ
õýí õèé äýìèé ìºíãºíèé ãàðç
öýíãýýí áîëîí áàðèëãûí ñàëãóóëàí àðâààä æèëèéí í¿¿ð ¿çýæ
ñîíññîíîî íàéçóóääàà ÿðèëàà.
áîëñîíã¿é. ¯¿íèéã ñóìàíäàà ººðºº
áàðààñ áóñàä á¿õ ñàëáàð õºãæñºíáàéãàà áîëîâ÷ ñ¿¿ëèéí ¿åñò ÿâóóðÍàéçóóä öóãëàí çîâëîí ãóíèãàà
ã¿é. Ýäèéí çàñãàà òºðºëæ¿¿ëæ
÷ ìýäýëã¿é íàðèéí ìýðãýæëèéí
ã¿é áîëñíîî äóóëãàõ áîëæýý. Îëîí
ò¿ð ìàðòàí õºãæèëäºõºä ãóäàìæ,
îíîøëîãîî õèéëãýñýí Ìîíãîë
îëîí òóëãóóðòàé áîëãîõ áîäëîãûã àãààðûí ìýäýý øèã ìýäýýëæ
óëñûí äóíäàæòàé ººðñäºäºº áàéíà. Ýíý æèëèéí îëñîí ºâ÷èí
òàëáàé ÷ ãî¸ìñîãîîð ãýðýëòýí
ýðõ áàðèã÷èä õýðõýí õàðüöóóëàõàä ºâãºí àíõ óäàà ìýäýðñýí ÷ îðàðõèíû õýðýãëýý áîëîí ýðýãòýé íü íýãýíò íü ãýõýä 6,5 óäààí áàéäàãºíººäºð æàðãàë òýðáóì
àøèãòàéãààð ýðã¿¿ëäãèéí ñîíãîäîã ëîãîöàöðàõýì÷ëýãäýõ íàéäâàðã¿é
õ¿íèé äóíäàæ íàñëàëòûí ¿ç¿¿ëýëò áîëñíûã íîòëîõ ìýò. Õýò ðàäèêàë,
ã¿éã ñîíñîîä ë õàðüæýý.
æèøýý íü ãàçàð òàðèàëàí. Íýëýýä äîëëàðò õ¿ðýýä áàéíà ãýñýí.
èõýä ìóóäñàí òºäèéã¿é òàðèàêîììóíèñò õàíäëàãàòàé
Çàÿà åð áóñûí áàÿðòàéãààð
õýäýí æèëèéí òóðø ãàçàðãýð á¿ëèéí “Òýãýýä ìºíãºº þóíä çàðñàí Øèíý
Äàõèàä Íàìûí íýýãýýä
õ¿÷èðõèéëýë íýìýãäýæ, ãýð õîðîî- ãýðýýñýý ãàð÷ óóðõàéäàðãûí çîõèîí
ëàíã äýìæèõ íýðýýð òºñâººñ àñàð áý? Ìîíãîë ë ÿâíà. Ó÷èð íü ºíººòýòãýìæèéí öóãëààíä ºäºð.
èõëîëä ñ¿ðüåý ºâ÷èí ãàçàð àâ÷ýý. Õ¿í äºðáàéãóóëñàíìºíãº áóóäàãîðîëöñîí
õýìæýýíèé òàòààñ îëãîñîí áàéñàí óó, ààâ àà?” ãýæ Áàÿðàà
àìûí òîîã öººõºí áàéëãàõ, õóâü Ýíý ìºíãèéã íýì¿¿ëýõèéí òºëºº
Îðõîí áàãà “Áýëýí ìºíãº
áîëîâ÷ á¿õýëäýý ýðõ áàðèã÷èä øàõàìäóóëàâ. çýðýã õàë÷èõñàí øºíº
õ¿íèé õºãæëèéã ñàíààòàé áîîæ òýðäóíä èðëýý. Îðõîíû “Áè øèíý óëñ
áîëîí òýäíèé îéð äîòíûõíû ìý- çàìáàðààã¿é òàðààõàà áîëèîä
õàãàñ æèëèéí ºìíº æàãñàæ
äýëä áàéäàã êîìïàíèóä ë áèçíåñýý óóë óóðõàéí òºëºº ç¿òãýõýýð áîëñîí”
õààãäóóëàõ äàëä ÿâóóëãà ÿâàãäàõ òýìöýæ ÿâñàí ãýõýýð á¿ð ÷ ñàíä
òºðèéí àøãèéã òóñãàé áàõàðõºðãºòãºæ õýìýýí öóóðõàõ íü çýâ¿¿í. ìààð. Ò¿¿íýýñþì áèëýý. Èðãýäõýä
áîëñîí äàâõàð äàâõàð àøèã òºâëºð¿¿ëñýí ä¿é ìóóòàé ¿ã íü õ¿¿õãýñýí ýâ õîéø þìíû ¿íý
îëñíîîñ áèø ýíý ñàëáàðûí ºðñºë- áà òºðèéí õàðèëöàà òàòâàð íü óëàì
Ñàíõ¿¿æèëòã¿éí óëìààñ òºðèéí äàõèí íýìýãäýæ àìüäðàë æàðãàëààð
ä¿¿äèéíõ èðýýä¿éã äýýð
áèçíåñèéíäºõ ÷àäâàð, ¿éëäâýðëýëèéí á¿- òîãòäîã þì. Èðãýä, òýð ¿åä ìºíãºº
áóñ áàéãóóëëàãóóä ñºõºð÷, íèéã- äîðäæýý. Ãýõäýý ë
áîîöîîëñîí àìëàëòòàé òýíöýâ.
òºëñºí òàòâàð óóë óóðõàéí
òýýìæ íýìýãäýýã¿é íü ºäãºº Ìîíãîë õèé 2012 îíîîñ õîéø þó áîëñíûã ñàéí
ìèéí îðøèõóéä èðãýíèé íèéãìèéí íýì¿¿ëæ àâààã¿é áîë á¿ð áàëàð÷
èõ îðëîãî õî¸ðûã íýã
ìýòèéí ìàë÷èä õÿòàä ãóðèë èäýæ òýð ñàíàõþó ãýæ áîäîõîîð òî- ë
îðîëöîî ýðñ õóìèãäæýý. Òºðººñ áàéõã¿é òýðáýýð ýíý áîë íýã
õ¿¿õä¿¿ãîîíä õèé÷èõâýë èðãýä òºðºº
áàéãààãààñ çýðãèéí ñàíõ¿¿æèëòèéã ñàéõàí. Çàÿà Óëààíáààòàðûí
ºãºõ áàãà òîäõîí õàðàãäàíà. õÿíàæ áàéõàä õýö¿¿ áîëîõ òóë ÷àäàõ
äèéíõýý èðýýä¿éã ººä òàòàæ
Ó÷èð íü õýäýí òºðèéí æèëä áàéãóóë- çàìáàðààã¿éñàéí çàì ãýæ áîäîâ. Ìàöººí ñ¿¿ëèéí õýäýí áóñ òºñºâ
õàìãèéí õîò òºëºâëºëòèéí óëîðëîãûã
õÿìàðñíààñ ãàçàð òàðèàëàíãèéí- áàéãàëèéí áàÿëãèéíæèëèéí òóðø
ëàãóóä ë àâäàã áºãººä ÒÁÁ-ûí ìààñ õýä çîãññîí ÷ óóë óóðõàéí áàÿëàã
ãàäã¿é ýíý á¿õ 10
ìºíãººð ñàëãàñàí. Òýãæ áàéæ
õàíä òàòààñ ºã÷ ÷àäààã¿é þì. Äýýðõ òóñàä íü çîäîí áàéæ áàðüæ äóóñøèíý÷èëñýí á¿ðòãýë ÿâóóëàõ íýîëäîîã¿é áàéñàí áîë Ìîíãîë Óëñ
ãàñàí òóíãàëàã öîìõîí, èðãý“Àòðûí 4, 5, 6-ð àÿí”-óóäààñ ãàäíà òºðºº øèíýõýí ìåòðîíä ñóóí õýäðýýð ãàäíààñ ñàíõ¿¿æèëò àâäàã
õàðààëä ºðòºõã¿é áàéñàí áàéõ ãýæ
òºð, õóâèéí õýâøèë, èðãýíèé íèéã- äèéíõýý òºëºº äîòîð õîòûí òºâ
õýí õîðìûí áîëãîæ ÷àäñàí
áàéãóóëëàãóóäûí ¿éë àæèëëàãààã îðëîî. áîäîæ áàéëàà.
òýð
ìèéí ò¿íøëýëèéã õºãæ¿¿ëæ áàéãàà þì. Õàðèí óóë óóðõàéãààñ îðæ
çîãñîîñîí íü ýíýõ¿¿ ººðñ- èðäýã òºðèéíáîñîæ èðñýí ÷ ãýëýý
Õýäèé ýðò áîëîí õóâèéí
íýðèéäëýýð ýðõ áàðèã÷èäáàéäàëä
äèéí õóâèéí êîìïàíè, íóòãèéí
çºâëºë¿¿ääýý îëãîñîí ìºíãº òîéìã¿é èõ. Ýíý á¿õ ¿ð àøèãã¿é õºòºëáºðèéí ýðñäýëèéã òºð ë ¿¿ðñíýýñ
áèø ººð õýí ÷ õàðèóöëàãà õ¿ëýýñýíã¿é ºäèé õ¿ð÷ýý.
Ìîíãîë ãóàé óéãàã¿é õºäºëïàíèóäòàé õàìòðàí àøèãëàõ
ìºðèéíõºº ¿ð øèìýýð áîã, áîä
ãýðýý õýëöýë õèéãäñýí. Ýõýííèéëñýí 500 ãàðóé ìàëòàé áîëñîí
äýý áèä èõ áàðüö àëäñàí. Ýíý
íü îëîí ìàëòàéä òîîöîãäîíî. Ãýâ÷
èõ áàÿëãàà àøèãëàõ ìýäëýã
ìàõ, ñ¿¿, íîîñ, àðüñ øèðíèé áèçòóðøëàãà ÷ áàéñàíã¿é. Äýýðýýñ
íåñ ôåðì¿¿ä ñàìáààòàé óëñóóä
íü îâñãîî äýýð òºâëºðñºí òóë
ìàëààñàà õàíãàëòòàé àøèã îðëîãî
àìèí õóâèéí ýðõ àøãàà èõ
îëæ ÷àääàãã¿é. Òèéì ÷ áîëîõîîð
àìæóóëöãààñàí. Ýäèéí çàñàã
àõóé àìüäðàë íü òýòãýìæèéí ìºíºñººä áàéñàí õýðíýý õ¿í àðä íü
ãºíººñ õýâýýðýý ë áàéâ. Áàÿëãàà
ÿäóó õàìààðàëòàé õýâýýð áàéíà. Óóë íü ÿìàà ò¿ëõ¿¿ ¿ðæ¿¿ëáýë
õóäàëäàæ, óõàæ áîãèíî õóãààøèãòàé èõÌîíãîë îëñîí “çºð¿¿ä”
öààíä ÷ ìºíãº óãèéí õ¿ì¿¿ñ
çàíãèéíõàà óëìààñ ñ¿ðãèéí á¿òýöòºð çàñàãò èõ íºëººòýé áîëñîí
äýý ÿìààã 10 õóâèàñ äýýø ãàðþì. Ñîíèí õýâëýëýýð ë ä¿¿ðýí
ãàëã¿é ºíººã õ¿ð÷ýý.
àâëèãà õýýë õàõóóëèéí òóõàé
...Ñóìûí òºâ ñàðûí õàðèóöáè÷äýã áàéñàí ÷ õýí ÷ºìíºõººñºº ÷ öººí õ¿íòýé áîëñîí ìýò õºë
ëàãà õ¿ëýýäýãã¿é áàéëàà.
õºäºëãººíã¿é øàõàì. Çàõèðãààíû
Îëîí ò¿ìýí øóäàðãà ¸ñûã
¿¿äýíä èõýýð õ¿ñýìæëýõ áîëñîí
ìàø ë òýòãýìæèéí ìºíãºº àâàõ
ãýñýí 2012 îíû Óëñûí Èõ Õóðëûí
òóë õýñýã õ¿í øàâíà. Õàðèí óðä
íü òýòãýìæèéí ìºíãº îëãîäîã òîãñîíãóóëèàð øóäàðãà ¸ñ áàéãààä ñàíõ¿¿ãèéí õÿìðàëûí óëìààñ
òîîõûí òºëºº ç¿òãýæ èðñýí
äàìïóóðñàí ãîëëîæ ñîíãîñîí îäîî
õ¿ì¿¿ñèéã áàíêíû ñàëáàð þì.
àðõè÷äûí öóãëàäàã ãàçàð áîëæýý.
Òºðä õýí îðæ èðñíýýñ ¿ë
Óñíû ãà÷èãäëûí óëìààñ àæèëëàõ
õàìààðàí íèéòèéí áàÿëãààñ ¿ë
áîëîìæã¿é áîëñîí äóòóó îðõèñîí
õóëãàéëàõ òèéì îð÷èí íºõîëîí ìÿíãàí õ¿ì¿¿ñ ñóóäàëòàé
öºëèéã òýð õ¿íèé á¿ðä¿¿ëæ
áàññåéíû äýýâðèéã äàìæèí õýäýí
ýõýëñýí. Ýíý íü ÷ ¿ð ä¿íãýý ºã÷
õ¿¿õýä õººöºëäºí òîãëîíî. øèëýý
øèíý àæëûí áàéð øèë Öàãòàà
5000 ãàðóé õ¿í àìòàé, òºâäºº 500
õàðàí áèé áîëæ, àìüäðàõ òàâòàé
øàõàì àéë áàéñàí ýíý ñóìàíä
òóõòàé îð÷èí ºäºð èðýõ á¿ð

00

õýâøëèéí ãàäàà õýäèéíý óðòààñ óðò
ÀÒÌ-èéí òýð èõ íàÿäààð òîîëîãäîõ îðëîãûã èðýýä¿éí ýðñäàðààëàë ¿¿ñæýý. Çàÿà çàìûí
äýëèéí ñàíä, ýãíýí ñóóõ õ¿ì¿¿õàøëàãà äýýð ýð¿¿ë ìýíä,
áîëîâñðîë,íýã øàð ñîíèí áàðüæ
ñèéí äóíä äýä á¿òýö çýðýã
÷óõàë øààðäëàãàòàé Ñîíèí äýýð
àâààä òóõëàí ñóóëàà. ñàëáàðò
îëîí íèéòèéí ñàíàëûã óðàëäààíä
“Êåíòàêèãèéí ìîðèí õàðãàëçàí çàðöóóëàõ æèøèã òîãò÷èõàíõ óäàà ìîíãîë ìîðü ò¿ð¿¿ëæ
ëîî. Ìýäýýæ óóë óóðõàéí á¿Åðºíõèé ñàéä 21 ñàÿ äîëëàðààð
òýýãäýõ¿¿íýý ã¿í áîëîâñðóóáàéëàâ”, “Ýð¿¿ãèéí íºõöºë áàéäàë
ëàõàä äîðäîæ áàéíà”, “Ìîíãîë óëñ
óëàì áàñ õýðýãëýíý ø¿¿ äýý.
Çýñèéí áàÿæìàëàà áîëîâñÃèííåñèéí íîìîíä îðñîí àâàðãà
ðóóëæ öýâýð çýñ ãàðãàæ àâäàã
òîì øîíõðûí õºøºº áîñãîâ”, “Çàáîëñîí íü èõ ñàéí õýðýã õýò èõýýð
ðèì îðäûí íººöèéã áîëñîí.
Çýñèéã çàðëàí ìºíãº áîñãîñîí íü
õóäàë õîò ÷èìýãëýë, îðîí
áàéðàà ãî¸õ, õºðºíãèéí áèðæ ¿éíîòëîãäîí àõóéí õýðýãëýýíèé
ñàâ ñóóëãà õèéõýä ÷ áàñ èõ
ìýýíä îðîâ” ãýõ ìýò ãàð÷èã ýðýýëæõýðýãëýæ áàéíà. Õ¿íèé áèåä
ëýí õàðàãäàíà.
õîðòîé ýëäýâ ÿíçûí õóâàíöàð
Òýãòýë ò¿¿íä íýãýí òàíèë íü
ñàâ ñóóëãûã õ¿íèé ýð¿¿ë ìýíçàõèäàë àâ÷èð÷ ºãëºº. “Îõèí
äýä òóñòàé çýñ ñàâ ñóóëãààð íü
Çàÿàäàà. Ààâ Ìîíãîëîîñ íü” ãýæ
ñîëüñîíä ýýæ ÷èíü ìàø èõ
ìîíãîë áè÷ãýýð òàòàëãàí áè÷áàÿðòàé íü àðàé òà õî¸ð ìýäíýóíñýíèéã áàéãààã ÿäàí ãàðãàæ
ø¿¿ äýý”.
øààä äóãòóéã çàäëàõ ¿åä ãýíýò õóé
Çàÿà íºõðèéíõºº çàõèäëûã
ñàëõè äýãäýí ãàð äàõüÿðèàã ¿ð- íü
ãýëæë¿¿ëýí “Ìàíàé Ìîíãîë øèã
õèéñãýí îäëîî.
ýìçýã áàéãàëü îð÷èíòîé óëñ
Çàÿà çàõèäëûí àðààñ ã¿éæ
óóðõàé íýýãäñíèé çîðãîîð àøèãî÷åðîî àëäàõ ýñýõýý øèéäýæ ÿäàí
ëààä áàéæ áîëîõã¿é òóë òºð
çîãññîîð...
ñòðàòåãèéí ãýãäýõ òîìîîõîí
Õàâðûí òýíãýð ìýò òààõûí
îðäóóäàà ýýëæ äàðààòàé àøèãàðãàã¿é õóâü çàÿàíäàà Çàÿà õýäèéëàõààð øèéäñýí. Òýð íü ÷
íý ýçýí íü áèø áîëæýý. Á¿õ ç¿éëä
îíîñîí. Àìüäðàõ ººð áîëîìæ
áýëýí õàðèóëò, áýëýí õîîë õ¿ðòýýä
ìóíäàõã¿é áàéõàä çààâàë ýíý
ñóð÷èõñàí Çàÿàãèéí àìüäðàëä õóé
ñàéõàí îðíîî ñ¿éòãýæ, áàéãàëü
ñàëõè ìýò ãýíýòèéí ººð÷ëºëò
îð÷íîî äîðîéòóóëààä ÿàõàâ
õýðýãòýé ãýæ ààâ íü áè÷ñýíèéã òýð
äýý. Áèä ÿìàð 100 ñàÿ àðä
ìýäýõ áîëîâ óó?
ò¿ìíèéã òýæýýõ ãýæ áàéãàà áèø.
Åðäºº ãóðàâ äºðºâõºí ñàÿ õ¿íä
õèéõ ñîíèðõîëòîé ñàéõàí àæèë
çºíäºº ë áàéíà” ãýëýý.
Öàãààí ñàðûí áèò¿¿íèé
ýíý ºäºð 2021 îíû Àíàãààõ
óõààíû ñàëáàðûí Íîáåëèéí
øàãíàëûã ßïîíû õî¸ð ýðäýìòýíòýé õàìò àâñàí Äýìáýðýëèéí Áàòñàéõàí ýõ îðîíäîî ò¿ð
èðæ ìîíãîë÷óóä àíõíû Íîáåëèéí øàãíàëò ýõ îðîí íýãòíýý
óãòàæ àâ÷ áàÿð õººð áîëöãîîâ.
Ìîíãîë ìýðãýæèëòí¿¿ä îëîí
óëñàä ºíäºð ¿íýëýãäýæ, òèâ
äýëõèéí ºíöºã áóëàí á¿ðò ÷óõàë
àæèë àëáà õàøèõ áîëñíû íýã
æèøýý ýíý áèëýý. Àðâààä æèëèéí ºìíººñ õàìãèéí èõ ýðäýì
íîìòîé õ¿¿õä¿¿äýý øàëãàðóóëæ îëîí óëñûí àëü òîì
ñóðãóóëèóäàä îëíîîð íü ñóðàëöóóëàõ áîëñíû ¿ð ä¿í ãàð÷
áàéãàà ýíý ãýõ. ¯¿íèé à÷ààð
äîòîîäûí èõ, äýýä ñóðãóóëèóä
÷ ñàéí áàãøààð õàíãàãäàæ,
ºðñºëäºõ ÷àäâàð íü ñàéæèð÷
áàéíà. Èíãýæ Ìîíãîë íóòàãò
çºâõºí Îþó-Òîëãîé îðä ¿ð
ºãººæºº õàéðëààä çîãñîõã¿é,
ìºí Ìîíãîë õ¿íèé îþóí óõààí,
ýðäýì áèëèã öàð õ¿ðýýãýý òýëæ
áàéãàà íü ¿íýõýýð áàõàðõóóøòàé. Îäîî ìîíãîë÷óóä àëçàõã¿é.
ªíººäºð 2022 îíû 2 äóãààð
ñàðûí 22-íû ºäºð. Ìàðãààø
òºìºð áàð æèëèéí øèíèéí íýãýí
áîëíî. Àçèä òºäèéã¿é äýëõèéä
ýäèéí çàñãèéí ºñºëòººðºº äýýã¿¿ðò îðîõ áîëñîí ìàíàé óëñûí
¿íäýñíèé áàÿðûí ºäºð. Ýíý
ºäºð á¿ãä Ìîíãîë äýýëýý ºìñºæ
ìÿíãà ìÿíãàí æèëèéí òóðø
òýìäýãëýñýýð èðýõäýý º÷¿¿õýí

It seems that the soum center has
fewer and fewer people as months pass.
Today several people are near the soum
administration building waiting for their
monthly cash transfers. The bank which
used to distribute the money had gone
bankrupt and is now a place for loitering
drunkards. Groups of children play on
the roof of the incomplete building of
the swimming arena which does not
function due to water shortages. At one
time, this soum had a population of 5000
people and over 500 households in its
center. Now, the soum’s population has
dwindled to less than half that number.
In addition to the incomplete pool,
traces of many inefficient investments
made when the government was
earning sufficient income from the
mining sector can be found. A cultural
center of 5000 seats was planned but
the building has not been finished
even though a construction company
from the city came and started it. Still,
some large investments in building
hospitals and schools were made, useful
and highly beneficial to the area. For
instance, the soum’s secondary school
is fully equipped with state of the art
technology including a high-speed
internet connection and computer lab.
Exhausted from riding all day under
the fierce sun, the elderly Mr. Mongol
was barely able to walk into a cafe, run
by the wife of the soum’s governor.
“Can you give me a cup of tea”
“We don’t have tea.”
“Then, at least give me some water”
“A cup of water is one yuan”
“How much is that in Mongolian
currency?”
“We don’t accept mongolian currency
anymore grandpa. The Mongolian Tugrik
is worth less than the paper it’s printed
on.”
“This is shameful! You are a
Mongolian trying to sell an old man a cup
of water for . . . Chinese money?”
Suddenly Mr Mongol stopped

expecTaTion
People were mesmerized by political promises
of all Mongolians living in luxury and not
needing to work and were overwhelmed with
excitement in anticipation of living a life of
leisure while receiving cash transfers.

29

talking and fell over.
Mr. Mongol regains consciousness in the soum
hospital under a large sign proclaiming “This
hospital was founded by the initiative of Mr.
Ogoomor, a member of Parliament and Minister
of Finance”. It is not the first time Mr. Mongol
has collapsed due to his high blood pressure but
now the doctor is informing him of extremely bad
news: he has belly cancer and there is no treatment
for it. The doctor believes the reason she is seeing
more and more cancers is due to polluted drinking
water. Currently, one out of every two people in
this region has this cancer.
Mr. Mongol felt that not all public investments
were a waste as he received modern and excellent
medical care at his soum hospital. Unfortunately, he realized that even sophisticated medicine
couldn’t stop the progression of his disease.

Zaya left home with happiness and satisfaction. Today is the day that she’ll receive the government cash transfer. It’s exciting for her to remember that a year ago she took part in the public
protests demonstration demanding an increase in
the cash transfer. Since then, the price of goods
has increased several times and her standard of
living continues to deteriorate. But Zaya is happy
believing that things would be much worse if the
cash allowances had not been increased. Within a

few minutes, she arrived downtown via the newly
completed subway. The subway system has been
under construction for the past 10 years, delayed
several times due to poor urban planning.
Although Zaya thought she arrived early, there’s
already a long line of people waiting to get cash
from the ATM. Zaya purchased a newspaper and
made herself comfortable in the queue. She can
see headlines that “A horse owned by the Prime
Minister won the Kentucky derby - PM handed
award of $21 million”, “Crime is on the increase”,
“Mongolia built the largest falcon statue in the
world,” and “Stock market is in chaos due to news
that deposit reserves are fake” and shakes her head.
Unexpectedly, an acquaintance in the queue
hands Zaya a letter from her father. She is barely
able to read the address written in old Mongolian
script. It is addressed to “Daughter Zaya Mongol,
from dad”. But just as she opens the envelope
a strong gust of wind blows the letter out of her
hand.
Zaya doesn’t want to take the risk of losing
her place in the queue and at the same time is
wondering whether to run after her letter or not.
Zaya is no longer the master of her own fate,
her life has become like the unpredictable spring
weather. Will Zaya, who has grown used to
easy access to material goods, food and money,
ever know that her father has written to her saying “Like the wind, you need to make a drastic
change in your life…”?

Mongolia has become a country that imports drinking water!

30


Economic Indicators

indicators
indicators

2011


2016

2021

2,786.13 10,063.23 11,637.85

Real GDP growth

15%

0%

733.82

2,168.91

1,918

11%

25%

25%

39%

Government mining
revenues
(mln USD)

2%

33.90%

45.20%

Poverty level

53

40

42,79
36,5

35
25

25

15
10
5

25


9

9


96

105

Open Budget Index
very strong-100)

60

25

Provide assistance to particular business
interests, without national strategy.

0


Technical competence of government never strong.
Patronage appointments dominate major institutions.
Civil service grows weaker.

indicators

2011/2009


0

0

-200

50

0

38.2

30

0.489

0.5

strong-100)

90
75%

80

2021 îí

281


60
50

2011

40
30
20%

20%

5%
0%

Savings

Consumption

Development Bank makes investments to satisfy
political pressures. No national plan for development.
Bank quickly runs out of funds and relies on foreign
loans to continue financing projects.

Fiscal Stability Law not taken seriously. Stability Fund
underfinanced and collapses after first price shock.
Central Bank neither competent nor independent and
finances govt debt.

80%

20

No serious investments in mining sector. No serious
requirements for local capacity building. Sector is cash
cow, to be milked. Sector comes to be almost entirely
foreign run. Little local employment. Local ownership
is fiction, since few Mongolian firms have serious
competencies.

Citizens become reliant on government subsidies.
No major growth in business sector. Culture of
dependency grows.

70

0

57

Continue obtaining citizen support with
subsidies

20

10

Global Integrity,

Continue current contracts in exchange for funds
for govt.

30,9

30

2021

Elections marred by vote buying. MPs not elected with
strong local support. Parliament viewed as lacking
legitimacy. No political will in Parliament for strong
decisions. No serious analysis of future. MPs continue
to look for easy solutions

50
45

2011

Investment

2021

Inflation high, eroding value of subsidies and MNT.
Mongolia becomes highly indebted to outside lenders,
primarily China.
Mongolia as resource-rich, competence-poor country
dependent on neighbors. Host of “poor country” social
problems.

31


A mining expert Zaya from the Western Tsankhi
coal mine of the Inner Mongolia-South Gobi
energy complex was awarded the right to enjoy
the Naadam holiday in Ulaanbaatar.
32

Today is July 11, 2021 which, as weather
forecasters warn, will be the hottest day of the
century. At noon in the “Oyu Tolgoi’ central
stadium in the capital city the celebrations begin: for “Naadam”, the national holiday, for the
815th Anniversary of the founding of the Great
Mongolian state, for the 110th Anniversary of the
declaration of independence, and the 100th Anniversary of the People’s Revolution. A couple of
years ago, the Oyu Tolgoi mining company announced that it would build a giant stadium with
80 thousand seats in exchange for retaining their
66% stake in ownership in the mine. However,
all available land in Yarmag, where they planned
to build the stadium, had been taken for residential districts. For a few years authorities searched
for a place to build the stadium and finally chose
the old Ulaanbaatar airport, available after operations were moved to the new airport in the Khoshoot valley. The new stadium was opened this
summer during Naadam holiday. It ranks as the
3rd largest in the Northeast Asia after the May 1
stadium with 150,000 seat in Pyongyang, North
Korea, and the “Birds’ Nest” stadium with
100,000 seats in Beijing.

33

The
community
group
“Native
Residents of 40,000
Housing
Units”,
from one of the oldest
residential
districts
of
Ulaanbaatar,
adamantly
opposed
naming the stadium
“Oyu Tolgoi”, but the
protesters were quieted
after a big campaign
whose message was
“Oyu Tolgoi is the
only global Mongolian
brand…”, as the Gobi
cashmere factory went
bankrupt in 2018 due
to the shortage of raw
materials.
Giant screens in
the stadium cover
much of the sky and
shade people from
the scorching sun;
they flash the names
of the major mining
companies, led by
Oyu Tolgoi, in three
languages. This accords
with the law passed
by State Great Khural
last year requiring the
use of Mongolian and
the Cyrillic alphabet.
However, the screens
are
dominated
by
English words such as
“mining”, “resource”,
“coal”,
“uranium”,
“minerals”, “Beijing”,
“Shenhua”
and
Dachin”
and
by
Chinese
characters,
since
the
actual
names of most mining
companies are either
English or Chinese.
The last attempt to use


The traditional horse
racing venue “Khui
Doloon Khudag”,
permanent camps of
different horse-owning
companies, instead
of traditional gers
of traditional horsetrainers.

The trees which used
to cover the foothills of
the Zaisan mountains
had all been cut down
and more houses had
been built.

36

traditional Mongolian script, at least for
company names, was made 10 years ago
and was unsuccessful.
A section, headed by mining expert
Zaya from the Western Tsankhi coal
mine of the Inner Mongolia-South
Gobi energy complex, shipped 1 million
tons of coal during the first half of the
year and was awarded the right to enjoy
the Naadam holiday in Ulaanbaatar.
They were seated in the special podium
known as “South Gobi”.
Chinggis E, the newly elected
President of Mongolia whose victory at
the polls was just announced a few days
ago, opened the Naadam celebration,
saying:
“As the newly elected head of the
state, I want to say good, positive things
about our country’s past, present and
future. Mongolia is on the threshold of
the third decade of the 21st century as
a strong and confident mining nation.
Some people call us not Mongolia but
“Minegolia” both in praise and in blame.
But we can’t be blamed for benefiting
from the enormous wealth bestowed on
us by Buddha in this vast territory left by
our ancestors. We are Mongolia. We are
also Minegolia. The time when we just
shipped our wealth away after digging it
up is over.
“After the 2012 election, we reviewed
our policy on the mining sector and
developed both a comprehensive map of
the mineral resources of Mongolia and
a road-map for developing the mining
sector, with the help of the World Bank
and the Rand Corporation. Based on
this, we established the comprehensive
steel and copper smelting industrial park
in Sainshand, financed by a big portion
of the mining revenue of the last 10
years. The industrial park opened before
the Naadam festival.
“Our government is learning from
international experiences and working
to support development of competitive
industries that will be owned by local

government once the mines close. We
have launched many new initiatives such
as the mining industries center. One such
initiative is to help local businesses to
improve their operations.
“The time is close for Mongolia to
become a country that does not depend
on others for its fuel and petroleum
needs. To do this, we are cooperating
with Germany in constructing coalto-liquid fuel plants in Sainshand and
Shivee-Ovoo, which are almost finished.
A mere ten years ago, we were importing
energy from Russia; now as result of the
successful construction of power plants
in Ukhaa Khudag, Tavan Tolgoi, Oyu
Tolgoi, Nariin Sukhait, Khoshoot, near
our large coal deposits, we export our
surplus energy to China.

The Chinggis Mall constructed on the location
Goods sold in the giant shopping c

“In this way an intergrated mining-energy-heavy
industries complex that covers much of southern part
of Mongolia has been created; its competitiveness
on the Asian continent matches that of industrial
regions of the Gulf countries. We were able to
overcome global economic crisis’ and the sharp
decline of commodity prices of 2018-2020 with the
reserves of the Stabilization Fund set up by mining
revenue.
“Mining makes up 90 percent of the total export
of Mongolia and the economy is growing at a rapid
yearly pace, and Mongolia leads the region in terms
of economic growth. Our GDP per capita exceeds
$15,000. As President of Mongolia, I state that
Mongolia is on the new path of development!”
After the opening speech, the President went
to his specially prepared seat. Zaya kept her
eye on him and tried to recognize some of the
99 Members of Parliament and some of the 20

n of the defunct garden park south of the central square of Ulaanbaatar.
center are now of very good quality, but their prices have sky-rocketed.

Cabinet Members sitting in rows on both sides of
the President.
A man on the right hand side of the President
stood up and bowed in respect. He was Prime
Minister Gerelt-Erdene. He managed the
coalition of two big political parties during the
2020 parliamentary election, united under the
promise of raising GDP per capita across Mongolia
to $20,000 over the next four years, to match the
current per capita GDP in South Gobi province.
The coalition won the election in a landslide
victory.

The Naadam wrestling competition began
three days ago and the preliminary selection of
2048 wrestlers finished yesterday. 256 famous
and high ranking wrestlers, with championship
titles like “Lion” “Garuda” (a bird of Buddhist
mythology), “Elephant”, “Hawk”, and “Falcon” appeared on the green arena of the stadium. These days the main wrestling competition
is held quickly so as not to bore international
guests, especially busy investors. The maximum
duration of a wrestling bout is now set at eight
minutes. Last year’s champions from the local
wrestling clubs “Giants of Great Mongolia” and
“Giants of the Khovsgol” were wrestling on behalf of “Ivanhoe Mines” and “Shenhua MAK”
mining companies respectfully. The rumor of
billions of tugrig spent by the companies in trading for wrestlers was a main topic of conversation among the thousands enjoying the Naadam
festival.
The next day, Zaya visited “Khui Doloon
Khudag”, the traditional horse racing venue, to see
the five-year old horses race. It was extraordinary
to see all the tall, imported thoroughbred horses
rushing to the finish line, throwing up clouds of
dust; nowadays only the best purebred horses
are officially allowed to race in the “Naadam”
celebration. It was interesting that three of the
horses among the first five finishers belonged to
MPs of the State Great Khural and the other two
horses belonged to directors of mining companies.
The winning horses were awarded prizes in the
form of pure gold bullions instead of the jeeps
awarded at previous Naadam festivals. These

37


days local Mongolian horses can only be found at
minor horse races, generally organized in honor
of horse trainers.
The traditional venue is no longer large
enough to accommodate the public enjoying
the celebrations. The whole valley is now filled
with permanent camps of different horseowning companies, instead of traditional gers of
traditional horse-trainers. Since it was decided to
organize next year’s horse race in the Khoshoot
valley near the airport; work on a tunnel from
north of Bogd mountain to the south began a few
years ago.
On her way back to Ulaanbaatar, Zaya looked
to the south of the city and saw that the trees
which used to cover the foothills of the Zaisan
mountains had all been cut down and more houses
had been built. It seemed clear that the country
had money now. They say that Mongolia is taking
in $4-6 billion annually in mining revenues. Giant
development works financed by mining revenues
were started everywhere, but many of these were
never completed. The long block wall stretching
from the west of Ulaanbaatar to the east of town

38

was built under the pretext of building a subway,
and divided the town right down the middle.
Since then, several years have passed and the first
two subway stations are expected to be working
by 2024. A few years ago, lawmakers elected from
Gobi provinces, campaigned actively to build
Ulaanbaatar-Mandalgobi-Dalanzadgad railroad
right to the capital of South Gobi province. Zaya
knows that although many dams were constructed
and a never ending pile of dirt can be seen
everywhere as result of construction, it is not clear
when the railroad will be completed.
In the afternoon Zaya visited the largest store
in Mongolia, the Chinggis Mall, constructed on
the location of the defunct garden park south of
the central square of Ulaanbaatar. Goods sold in
the giant shopping center are now of very good
quality, but their prices have sky-rocketed. Zaya
had to buy clothes for herself and gifts for her
parents, for the sake of buying something, but she
was shocked at the recent price hike and spent
several million tugrig. It was officially reported
that the price of goods had increased on average
threefold over the last 3 years.

Actually, though Zaya has graduated from
the law department of the National University of
Mongolia, she failed the bar exam over three consecutive years. Some of her friends told her indirectly “You’d better work on the election campaign of one of the big political parties. It is even
better if you can join the party as a member”. She
later realized her situation was due to her failure
to follow that advice. Since then, she decided to
change her profession and entered the University of Coal Technology and became an open pitmine engineer and went to South Gobi. Since
moving Zaya has been able to visit her native
place only once a year, so she decided to use this
opportunity to visit her parents. The next morning she took the express- train to Sainshand, the
capital of Eastern Gobi province, and from there
she took the Eastern Mongolian railway know
as “Battulga” (for the former Minister of Road,
Transportation, Construction and Urban Planning) to Sukhbaatar province.
There is only one other person in Zaya’s

compartment; very few people were on the train.
There have been a number of criticisms that this
well-constructed railroad, designed to ship coking
coal from Tavan Tolgoi east through Russia to
Pacific Ocean ports, was built at an exorbitant
cost and does not produce good economic returns.
However, Zaya disagrees with these criticisms.
Why? Because this is the rail line that allows her to
meet her parents.
At dawn, the train crosses the border of Zaya’s
native province. Zaya did her her best to spot
livestock and gazelle herds, which she used to see
grazing in the thousands during her childhood.
However, she could not see any now, only various
mining sites and urban settlements.
Her parents and little brother picked her up
from Sukhbaatar station in the provincial capital.
Her parents were originally from a place called
Tumentsogt, but settled near the railway station
this spring after losing half their livestock during
the Dzud disaster of the 2020s. She breathed in the
fresh air of her native land and looked happily at
her parents as nice memories of rural life awoke
in her.

39

Her father pointed to a newish Japanese car
and said, “We bought this with remittances sent by
you - our daughter. It has an air cooled engine”
while kicking tires and starting the engine.
The Sukhbaatar railway station neighborhood
now has many Korean residents. Two years ago
when the Koreas clashed, Mongolia temporarily
accepted 30,000 North Korean refugees by UB
government decision. A portion of the North
Korean refugees settled here and were employed
building the cement plant. Her dad said “ We
always somehow end up connecting with these
people. Do you remember your grandpa telling us
how he worked as a security guard in a kindergarten
that hosted orphaned North Korean children after
the Korean war in the 1950s. Now I’m supplying
meat to these Koreans. The refugee committee buys
meat for quite a good price and I’m selling them the
rest of my livestock that survived the Zud”. Soon,
they reached her parent’s home not far from the
train station.
Since arriving here, her parents live in a wooden
house built using Canadian technology; they no
longer use the traditional Ger. Zaya noticed that
the rural lifestyle has changed a lot. Nowadays
herder households with many animals are very
rare. Since households with thousands of animals
are extremely rare, the new title of “Herder with
500 Animals” is given to successful herders.
Horsemen are rarely seen on the steppes now; cars
are seen instead. Zaya’s father continued “We no
longer have to search for gasoline. Since they set up
the station here, finding fuel for cars has become
really easy.” Zaya was very upset to learn that the
secondary school of Tumentsogt soum from which
she graduated, and the soum hospital in which she
was born, had been closed down. Administrative
reform resulted in administrative offices, hospital
and schools being consolidated in the capital.

Zaya stayed for a couple of days in her parent’s home and then took the train back. While
on the journey, she called her classmate Gerlee
via video call from her cell phone and asked her
to meet her in Sainshand, where Gerlee lives.
Soon the two classmates, who had not seen each
other for a long time, met happily and began a

lively conversation. Her friend started:
“Since the large industrial plants have been built
in Sainshand many people have come to work here.
They say workers of the steel plant make 3 to 4
million tugrig a month. Along with this, the price of
goods is on the rise. The salaries of teachers like me
are still lagging behind.
- What does your husband do?
-He came from Korea and began to work
in the ‘Eastern Gobi’ meat factory; he gets two
million a month. It is an embarrassingly small
salary compared to workers at your mine. I would
like to ask you one thing: if our family moved to
Tsogttsetsii near the Tavan Tolgoi mine, could
we find good jobs there? If only we could get the
$1,000 allowance given to residents of South Gobi
province each month!
- It is hard to say now. I just visited my parents
and my little brother Bataa bugged me to get him
a “green card” for South Gobi Province. He is not
qualified for that. Over the last few years, the South
Gobi administration has been restricting employment
of people from other provinces since there are so
many requests from Mongolians and from Chinese.
Do you know Chinese?
- What? My English is not that bad....
- Recently, the Governor of our province issued
an order permitting Chinese companies to hire
Chinese language interpreters from other Mongolian
provinces since there is no university teaching
Chinese language in South Gobi.
- Maybe I should go to UB and study Chinese
now through a training course. Think about a job
for me just in case...”
After a half hour, Zaya boarded the next train.
In the evening she reached Tsogttsetsee and was
met by her husband Bayaraa and their 3-year old
son. They spoke about the Naadam celebration.
”How large is the new stadium of Ulaanbaatar?
While you were away, our son and I went to
Dalanzadgad and saw the Naadam celebration of
South Gobi Province in the new stadium there. It is
named “Ukhaa Khudag”, as it was built by Energy
Resources Company. The Naadam celebrations of
South Gobi province were very grand. All three top
state leaders, the President, PM and Speaker of the
Parliament came for the celebration. Did you know
that? All other dignitaries came by personal choppers.
Their race horses were transported by air.”

Bayaraa is originally from Arkhangai aimag.
About a decade ago, he moved to Ulaanbaatar
with his parents and became a resident of the
capital. He met Zaya while studying at medical
school and soon after moved to Tsogttsetsee with
his wife. He always says” I’m still drinking the
water of the Orkhon River!” It’s true; the development of the giant mine projects of Oyu Tolgoi
and Tavan Tolgoi led to the drying out of surface
waters and by 2018 almost all of South Gobi became a desert. Many billions of tugrigs were immediately spent on a project to bring water from
northern Mongolia. In 2019, the water of the
Orkhon River was carried by a pipeline almost a
thousand kilometers to Tsogttsetsee. However,
most of the water is used by the mine. In same
year, the Kherlen River in north Mongolia was
diverted to Khanbogd Soum, but that too was essentially entirely for the Oyu Tolgoi mine.
The water projects awoke Mongolian civil
society. Groups with names such as “Hands
Off the Orkhon River”, “Let’s Scale Back the
Mining Sector”, and “The Herders’ Front to
Save Pastureland” began to emerge, opposing
diverting river water for mining and generally
criticizing the mining sector. These groups were
led by people like Onobayar, Magnaidorj, and
Taivantor who fought for many years against ninja
miners and gold mining companies operating
along river banks in Arkhangai and Uvurkhangai
provinces, and who spent time behind bars for this.
Recently the civic groups claimed that authorities
are secretly negotiating with a foreign country
over diverting not only the Zavkhan and Khovd
Rivers in western Mongolia, but also Khovsgol
and Uvs Lake waters under the guise of reducing
desertification of the Western region. They claim
that the true intention of this effort is to supply
water to coal and phosphorus mines and their
associated industries. One anonymous source said
that the foreign country was Korea.
This spring, the activities of these groups took
on regional dimensions as they began to cooperate
with Russian public organizations such as “Save
Lake Baikal” and “ For a Full Selenge River” and
jointly organized several protest actions. This is
related to fact that the Orkhon River was polluted

by miners for many years and some of the river
water was diverted to South Mongolia. All this
began to affect Lake Baikal, which is the largest
fresh water reservoir in the world.
Environmental protection concerns were
not only caused by mining. The “Virgin Land”
campaigns, now in its sixth year and funded with
large amounts of government money, did not bring
adequate results. The fact that Mongolia is still not
fully meeting its domestic grain needs is no longer
considered so important given the other disastrous
results of the virgin land campaigns. Fertile lands
in Tov, Selengfe and Bulgan Provinces were
plowed uncontrollably, resulting in increased
desertification and a shortage of pastureland for
livestock. Traditional animal husbandry no longer
exists in these regions now. No herders are left in
these areas, having been replaced by farmers who
raise highly efficient animals such as pigs and
chickens.
Observers unanimously agreed that the
implementation of the law on the privatization
of pastureland, approved by Parliament under
pressure from the lobby of lawmakers elected from
rural areas in 2016, pushed traditional herding,
which had existed in the vast Central Asian
steppes for thousands of years as an essential part
of nomadic culture, to the brink of extinction.
The World Health Organization last century
officially dropped “Mongolism” as the name for
Down’s Syndrome at the request of Mongolia
representatives. However, one foreign researcher
recently used the term “Mongolism” to describe
the current situation in Mongolia; this received
wide notice and the term began to be used along
with “Dutch disease”, which we all know very well.
Researchers characterized “Mongolian disease” as
the sacrificing of a country’s natural environment
and patrimony in exchange for significant mining
revenues. Though some Mongolian patriots
protested against the term, it is widely used now.

The 12th Mongolian Economic Forum,
which is called the “Mongolian Davos”, was held
in Feb, 2021 on the theme “Mongolia’s Economy: What to Do?” During the forum, conflicting
assessment and evaluations were presented and


heated discussions and arguments ensued among
economists and researchers. Many spoke:
Baldan, the Minister of Coal:
“During the last decade, the mining sector,
especially coal companies, have been much
criticized. There is an old Mongolian saying against
“arguing with the person who gave you fat meat”. In
the last 20th century, the herding sector was essential
for the economic life of Mongolia; now in the 21st
century it is coal. A decade ago, the poverty level in
Mongolia was 36%. Now this has been reduced by
three quarters. This is the benefit of the coal which
is cursed by some people”.
Li Hua Pung, Resident Representative of the
World Bank:
“If you remember, after the 2012 election when
your new government was formed, the World Bank
report said there is no hope for Mongolia to get
out of the vicious cycle of cash distribution to poor
residents and price hikes as direct result of the cash
distribution, with increased poverty as prices rose.
At the time, our representative was almost chased
out of your country. The situation has changed very

much since then. The distribution to Mongolian
citizens of shares of the Erdenes MGL company,
which held a majority of the Tavan Tolgoi deposit,
the largest coking coal deposit in the world, did
not bring the anticipated benefits. Eventually, the
shares were concentrated in the hands of only a few
people; however, Mongolians stopped waiting idly
for cash distribution programs such as the “ Gift of
the Motherland” and “Treasure Shares” programs.
Average pay of the mining and mine-related sectors
gradually reached the level of developed western
countries. However, it should be noted that the
economy is restricted by mining and economic
diversification is insufficient. Therefore, the World
Bank considers that Mongolia is not yet on the path
of sustainable development.
Cabinet Member, and Governor of Ulaanbaatar
Metropolis, Duuren:
“Although I was born in the USA, it is not long
ago that I came to the land of our ancestors and
took up public office. Until recently Ulaanbaatar
has been developing very rapidly without an efficient
urban plan and has faced many pressing issues
and challenges; now these are being solved. First

of all, if we can implement the agreement signed
two years ago by Mongolia, Russia and China,
about constructing natural gas pipelines through
Mongolian territory, our city will get rid of its name
Utaanbaatar (‘Smoky Hero’) and regain its previous
name of ‘the White Princess of Asia’”
The famous economist Bayarsaikhan:
“There is ample evidence that the distribution of
cash and free shares to our citizens, generated by
mining revenues from the sale of our natural wealth,
without having to lift our fingers, has reduced
economic incentive and created overdependence on
the state and led to poor governance. We all see that
companies such as MWX benefit most from increased
government spending and increased mining revenue
by winning most of government procurement contracts.
These companies are expanding enormously and put
their people in any government position they want.
Huge investments have been made in infrastructure,
especially the infrastructures designed to transport
minerals in large quantities. This has led in some
cases to surplus infrastructure capacities. The
Development Bank has financed many inefficient
projects and so the financial capacity of the bank
has deteriorated rapidly and is putting a great deal
of pressure on the national budget.... Factories and
plants in the non-mining sector, such as Gobi, have
been bankrupted because of deteriorating payment
conditions. This in turn led to the bankruptcies of
some major commercial banks and by early 2021 we
ended up with only 3-4 banks. Large international
banks are poised to take over the banking sector.”
Galtseren, director of the Mongolian University
of Economic Studies:
“Today, some ministers say there is no such thing
as “Mongolian disease” and, if we can continue
developing the mining sector without serious obstacles
for another 10 years, we can recover what we lost
and fully rehabilitate our natural environment. Let
me ask you: Now a one-liter bottle of water in South
Gobi province costs $5. Since South Gobi residents
have so much money, they can buy it. What if this
happens throughout Mongolia? Yes, ‘Mongolian
disease’ is different from ‘Dutch disease’. Why?
Because in Holland, the oil was in the ocean
and there was no land to pollute. Dutch disease
covered a small area equal to 2 soums (counties)

of Mongolia and there was not much to pollute and
degrade. So how have we been able to pollute and
degrade such a large area... For what? We just built
several skyscrapers in Ulaanbaatar and many paved
roads leading to the Chinese border. 60% of the
mining revenues are spent on mining infrastructure
development. What is the use of luxurious buildings,
such as our 20 floor House of Parliament, our 10
floor Presidential Palace, the Palace of Unity, the
Ulaanbaatar statue? The telecommunication sector
has on the whole fallen into foreign ownership.
What do we do with the thousands of youth that do
not work in the mines and have no profession and
vocation? Who can answer these questions?
Galtseren was supported by Enkh-Amgalan who
had resigned from his post as Minister of Finance,
where he worked between 2016-2019, due to his
differences of opinion with the Prime Minister. He
now works as Director of an alternative economic
research center. He said,
“The state is collapsing and so the natural
environment is being destroyed. Today, people who
are working in mining companies are appointed as
heads of government agencies and ministries such
as minerals, customs and tax. On the other hand,
government sector employees who went to school
abroad with taxpayers’ money and gained sufficient
skills and qualification for working in these
ministries and agencies instead went to work for
mining companies. The Mongolian state has become
like a revolving door.“
Researcher Ochirmunkh:
The Mongolian government has tried very hard
to attract western investors over the last several
decades. Initially, western companies did come
to Mongolia. They were running here and there
to sell Mongolia’s raw materials to China. They
even stopped asking for licensing permission from
us. During the 20th century, Mongolia was directed
from Moscow; now it seems Beijing is the place that
decides for Mongolia. It appears that the so-called
western companies have become Chinese owned
companies suddenly. In short, don’t you see that
now China is investing heavily in Mongolia and
taking over the whole country?”
Ochirsuren, who was governor of Mongol bank

at the beginning of this century, said
“Many people don’t like the fact that
the Chinese Yuan has become more
valuable and is more freely used in the
Mongolian economy than the dollar.
Some populists scare people into thinking that this has reversed a major accomplishment of the Mongolian revolution of last century, which distanced
Mongolia from the Yuan after 100
years. This is empty talk of people who
don’t understand the economy. We have
to accept the fact that today the Chinese
Yuan is a major global currency; just
like US dollar was 10 years ago”

The implementation
of the law on the
privatization of
pastureland pushed
traditional herding,
which had existed
in the vast Central
Asian steppes for
thousands of years
as an essential part
of nomadic culture,
to the brink of
extinction.

Soon after, Zaya was invited to
the 5th anniversary of the Inner Mongolia-South Gobi provincial energy
complex. A total of 10 people from the
West Tsankhi coal mine were also invited to the celebration. They took the
train from Tsogttsetsii and arrived in
the central train station of Dalanzadgad. More train cars from other mines
of the complex and 5 train cars from
Ulaanbaatar and 2 separate cars for
governors of South Gobi and Eastern
Gobi provinces were connected to the
train convoy and all headed south.
There are 4 border crossings between
China and Mongolia and coal trains
pass 24 hours a day through them. A 15
minute window allocated for passenger
trains to pass through the border point
of Gashuun Sukhait was increased to 30
minutes for the anniversary celebration
and the arrival of its delegates.
After crossing the border, the
delegates participated in another
ceremony at the railway station in
the Chinese city of Jehe. They were
delayed a little bit. A train of Chinese
workers going to the mines of South
Gobi province was also waiting at the
station. Zaya knows some Chinese after
working with Chinese for several years,

so she has no option but to overhear
and understand their loud talk. One
elderly Chinese man said he first visited
Mongolia 10 years ago and now goes 4-5
times a year and intends to settle down
there eventually even though there is
special easy border regime for passing
between South Gobi province and
Inner Mongolia. He discusses housing
prices with the other Chinese workers.
Still another young Chinese man wants
to marry a Mongolian co-worker, a
local woman. He mispronounces her
name. However, Zaya understood from
their conversation that the woman
is not agreeing to this. In contempt,
Zaya says to herself “You could not
even pronounce her name correctly”
and distances herself from the Chinese
workers.
As they approached Khokh Khot
in Inner Mongolia the train crawls
through skyscrapers and arrives at the
central train station full of flowers. They
can clearly see the banner declaring,
“Long Live Friendship Between Inner
Mongolia and South Gobi Province” in
both languages. At the same time Zaya
regretfully thinks that, “if we ship more
and more coal to China it seems our
friendship will last longer.”


Economic Indicators

indicators
indicators

2011


2,786.13

Real GDP growth

2016

2021

8,999.61 15,310.17

15%

3%

733.82

2,451.81

4,449.56

11%

12%

9%

39%

Government mining
revenues
(mln USD)

4%

22.70%

20.30%

Poverty level

40

42,79
36,5

35

30,9

32

30

25

25
20
15
10
5
0


indicators

2011/2009


2021

281

778

0

150

50

1000

38.2

58

0.489



57

71


9

7


96

76

Open Budget Index
very strong-100)

60

50

Commissions analysis of mining sector and
national strategy
Passes clear laws to regulate and support mining
environment
Analyzes experiences in other countries
Makes a clear decision to concentrate on making
Mongolia major global player in mining and
energy production over long term.
Clear targets set for Mongolian participation in mining
sector and clear limits on foreign domination of
sector. Terms of business compel foreign companies
to invest in building Mongolian capacity as well as
sector.
Strong requirement for investing proceeds in
Development Bank (10%). Development Bank
competent. Makes sound investment, primarily
in building up and diversifying mining sector.
Government does not neglect other public health and
education.
Mongolian business leaders make serious
commitment to create long term globally competitive
business and sector. Forego quick profits for long
term business competitiveness. Mongolia becomes
diversified mining dependent economy, relatively
stable & successful, but vulnerable to price shocks.

90
75%

80
70
60
50

40%

40
30%

30

2011

30%
20%

20
10

Global Integrity,

0.49


strong-100)

2021

Election results mixed in 2012, but no vote buying.
MPs have clear backing from citizens. Mining
and business interests have strong supporters in
Parliament. Despite no clear majority, new Parliament
shows political will & competence:

50
45

2011

5%

2021

Fiscal stability taken seriously. Creation of strong
stability fund and willingness to use it to stabilize
national finances during price shocks. Fund resists
pressures to use assets for other purposes. Inflation
fought rigorously by independent Central Bank.

0

Savings

Consumption

Investment

Environmental problems are important – water use &
quality.

coUnTrySide
Zaya did her her best to spot livestock and gazelle herds,
which she used to see grazing in the thousands during
her childhood. Nowadays herder households with many
animals are very rare. Since households with thousands
of animals are extremely rare, the new title of “Herder with
500 Animals” is given to successful herders. Horsemen
are rarely seen on the steppes now; cars are seen
instead.

After many ministers and company
directors had spoken, Zaya raised the
issue of the need to reduce the negative
impact of oil production on the natural
environment, even though oil production
had benefited the country overall.

Ten years ago, only Australia was seen as a
good example of managing mineral resources successfully but today Mongolia as well. And results
of sound policies on managing its enormous mining wealth are very clear. Mongolia struggled hard
at the outset to follow the paths of Latin America,
the Middle East and Azerbaijan, but fortunately, the political environment of the country improved. Mongolia’s leaders initially dreamed of
turning Mongolia into a global mining giant producing high value mining products. Now, looking
back, the failure of these dreams has proven to be
a good thing. Mongolian cashmere is as recognized worldwide as Scottish wool and world celebrities praise it as “the real thing”; Mongolian
beef is on par with New Zealand lamb and French
wine. The Mongolian financial sector is considered a safe haven and as reliable as Singapore’s.
Mongolia is seen as one of the best destinations
for adventure travel and tourism and the number
of tourists visiting Mongolia continues to increase.
Zaya, an economist and a lawyer, is just one
of many ordinary Mongolians who are living in
this fortunate country of 3.5 million residents,
now ranking 25th in the world in terms of
development. She graduated from a university in


Rural areas have improved a lot: even winter barns for livestock animals have electricity now and the roads
done and it has become as pristine as it was in the 13th century. Herders have become highly educated and
Many products such as dry milk, fermented m

Ulaanbaatar 10 years ago and headed to Dornod
province which was becoming the new economic
center of the region. Many companies, seemingly
all with “Petro” in their names, were producing
oil. Roads and railroads to China and Korea had
been built and Korean farmers were farming the
lands. Zaya began working in a law firm dealing
with land disputes between local herders and
large companies and soon realized that nomadic
livestock husbandry was being legally pushed out
of the province. This made her heart sad and as
a result she quit her job and founded a nonprofit
organization to support and defend the interests
of herders. In this capacity, she participated in a
launching ceremony for the railroad linking the
transport of crude oil from Dornod to the new
refinery in Sainshand. After many ministers and
company directors had spoken, Zaya raised the
issue of the need to reduce the negative impact of
oil production on the natural environment, even

though oil production had benefited the country
overall.
Zaya doesn’t like the fact that the last open
wild steppe in the world has slowly been turned
into rice and vegetable farms and that the water of
Buir Lake is increasingly diverted to crop farming
in the area. As it is mainly Koreans who farm, no
one really knows how, or if, the local residents
benefit from farming, especially given the impact
on the natural environment.
Once, as Zaya drove alone on the highway to
Khalkhgol, she had a flat tire and was delayed for
some time in the scorching summer heat on the
wide open steppe called Menen. While sitting in
her car, with no shade to protect her from the sun,
Zaya asked herself what could be done on this
steppe other than growing rice. She thought “Why
couldn’t we grow sea buckthorn on the steppe? At
least it is native to Mongolia!” Soon after, Zaya
proposed to the Natural Wealth and Land Recla-

at an international film festival. The documentary
started with a reenactment of Zaya stuck in her
car looking out over the steppe.

and paths have improved. Environmental rehabilitation work was
d there are many veterinarians and animal husbandry specialists.
milk, and ecologically- clean-jerk meats are being produced here.

mation Fund that they focus not only on the areas
directly impacted by mining but also other areas
subject to environmental deterioration. Her proposal was supported, and over time, sea buckthorn
saplings began to be cultivated from Buir Lake to
the eastern Mongolian steppe. Now these saplings have matured into large thick forests that can
easily hide a man and a regular supply of berries
is harvested from this area. The berries are processed in the region and the extract is transported
to Darkhan, in central Mongolia, for further processing by a Mongolian-Hungarian joint pharmacy venture. The factory is now internationally well
known and its products are popular amongst older
Japanese and Chinese as well as world-class athletes. Many experiments show that sea buckthorn
from the steppes of Menen has unique properties,
building both strength and stamina. Last year, the
documentary “Green Energy” about the history of
sea buckthorn cultivation in Dornod won a prize

Zaya has two siblings. The older one, Khishig, graduated from a university abroad, majoring in management. He took a position as
manager of small and medium enterprise development in the provincial government of South
Gobi province, the location of the enormous Tavan Tolgoi coal mine. Khishig proposed a master plan to develop and support businesses which
produce finished products instead of the tangle
of cafes, restaurants and souvenir stands run by
the local population. His proposal was supported
and funds became available for local micro-businesses and then for medium sized ones. Locally
owned companies began to produce electronic
components for the heavy-duty mining trucks
and to provide computer and internet services
to the plant and power stations of Tavan Tolgoi. Khishig’s plan, also allowed foreign SMEs
start businesses and compete in the market. For
example, the “Mongolian Mind” company innovated and started to produce a pen-shaped
micro-device that measures air pollution levels
in the mines and radiation levels in foods. Two
out of five young partners are from the ethnically
Mongolian regions of Buryat and Kalmyk in the
Russian Federation.
Khishig
was
named
“Best
Manager
in Mongolia” in 2020 by the Mongolian
Management Association for his efforts in the
reform of the small and medium enterprise sector,
and soon after he was given an opportunity to
work in the Ministry of Mining. The Minister
at that time, Jaltsav, was found to have taken
bribes and was suspended from Parliament at
the demand of the Independent Agency against
Corruption. Soon after the case was investigated,
he was sentenced to a five year jail term and was
required to pay a significant amount of money
in damages. Along with Jaltsav, several other
politicians and high ranking ministry officials were
embroiled in the case, resulting in many vacancies
in government departments. Everyone with
relevant work experience and accomplishments

was able apply for these positions and sit for an
exam. Khishig was thinking to apply, but the
aimag government appointed him as Department
Head, so he did not.
Bayaraa, Zaya’s younger brother, graduated
from a vocational training school and became an
employee of “Selenge-Oyu Tolgoi Water Supply
Company”. Everyone knows that Turkey built
a gigantic hydro-power plant and huge dam on
the Selenge river in the rocky passes of Bulgan
aimag. Its surplus water is pumped to South Gobi
through a thousand kilometer long pipeline. This
massive project has essentially solved the water
problems of the region. Bayaraa is an operator of
this pumping station. Recently, he connected with
Zaya through his laptop computer and showed her
his workplace.

Zaya’s family lives in a two-story house located in the southeast of Choibalsan City facing
the Kherlen River. Fruit trees grow along both
sides of the house. Her husband Altangerel is an
engineer at a wind-power complex of the Dornod
region. They have two school-age sons.
In the afternoon, the eldest son, Bayaraa,
comes home from school and pulls out and
unfolds his iMon to charge it. This is the tablet
computer that every child gets from school,
and it includes all the necessary textbooks,
thus lightening up the school bag. Today’s
homework was to write a composition titled
“My Grandfather”. Bayaraa made an internet
call to his grandfather, who lives in Arkhangai
province. Fortunately, grandpa was at his home in
the Soum center after having visited the hospital
in the provincial capital. Bayaraa explained his
homework and recorded his grandpa’s story, using
new software which converts Mongolian speech to
text. Adults complain that today’s children are too
lazy to write by hand, but maybe it is just jealousy.
His grandfather said:
“...I’m doing well since I went for surgery
in Ulaanbaatar last fall. Yesterday, I went to the
provincial capital and visited the hospital. The
doctor said I’m getting better. It is a disease called
cancer. Last year, when I went through medical
diagnosis, it was ok. You all should go through

medical diagnosis every year. I went through
surgery at the “Central Polyclinic No.6”. They
gave me traditional medicines to drink when I got
back home. A Russian woman was in the hospital
room next to mine. Poor thing. She looked like
she had brought all her money with her. I asked
her why she came. She said ‘I read on the internet
that hospitals in your country are treating people
with a combination of traditional healing and

modern medical science and are paying attention
to both the body and the mind’. Since health
standards were pretty poor ten years ago, the
government invested significantly in the health
sector, sending Mongolian doctors abroad for
training and bringing foreign doctors in to train
Mongolians. They say, doctors are making good
money and getting rich now. Oh, well...”
“Compared to years ago, Ulaanbaatar has
no traffic jams and very little air pollution,
but it is still difficult for an old person to get
around. When I drive there is no free parking
space, and thus, I go by foot, but I can’t figure
out the subway system and get lost easily. Now
I’m back home and it’s so nice. Our rural areas
have improved a lot: even winter barns for

livestock animals have electricity now and the
roads and paths have improved. Environmental
rehabilitation work was done around the Chuluut
River and I think it has become as pristine as it
was in the 13th century. Now there are modern
slaughter houses and dairy processing factories.
Herders have become highly educated and there
are many veterinarians and animal husbandry
specialists. Many products such as dry milk,

fermented milk, and ecologically-produced dried
meats are being produced here.”
“Because of privatization I now own the
winter barn and spring camping ground passed
down through generations of our family; I am
thinking of opening a small tour-camp for foreign
tourists. I will make it look like an authentic old
ger and prepare the horse’s reins, bridles, and
tethering lines and so on while I still can make
them. These kinds of exhibits are now trendy
worldwide, so why waste this opportunity?
International and domestic tourists come here to
see and feel our nomadic culture: milking cows,
making dairy curds, herding animals; all this is
interesting for them. Since there is no crowded
traffic around here and only green factories and

traditional animal husbandry, it is so nice not only
for international tourists, but also for us locals.
If my business turns out to be good, I will buy a
second-hand helicopter with other locals. Then,
I can see my children in town any time I want.
Recently, aviation fuel started being produced in
Darkhan, and the price is reasonably cheap.”
“The large foreign-owned gold-copper mine
which was in the south of our aimag looks like it
was never there. There was much talk about establishing a large town there, but once they finished extracting the minerals they put back the
soil. The workers quarters were disassembled and
moved, just like traditional gers. Now only a few
white gazelles are left in a fenced area. Also, the
water diverted from the Northern Selenge River
through the underground pipeline remains. It
is very clean water and last year when Lake Ogii
dried up because of drought, it was filled up again
by turning on the tap for few days. The Minister of
Natural Environment said on TV that the waters
of the spring floods were saved and used for this.
The Minister received an award from the Russians
for protecting the Buryat, an autonomous region
of the Russian Federation, from flood. You know
Gerlee, he is growing wheat there. He found good
land with no flood danger and not many livestock
animals and set up his farm. The farm is not far
from railway station Number 2121 on the Ulaanbaatar-Bayan-Ulgii line. Everybody knows this.
I go there sometimes and buy animal feed, flour
and fruits. You know that I like raisins very much.
I’m also getting domestically produced apples and
plums from there…”

Zaya was preparing dinner at home and her
youngest son Tsengel came to help her. While
helping her, the boy turned on the TV which was
broadcasting a ceremony honoring the English
language translation of D. Gantugs’ “Mongolia’s
Great Leap Forward”. The economist’s book has
been ranked fifth on the Mongolian bestseller
list for the last few weeks. P.Ochirbat, the first
President of Mongolia, was invited as a guest at
the ceremony and amused people with his great
sense of humor. “You all know why I was invited
here today?” he asked. “Yes, I said in 1991 that I

would make Mongolia an Asian Tiger and I was
attacked by the media for almost 30 years for saying that. I was in trouble for turning Mongolia
into a “pub” country (Bar means tiger in Mongolian and Baar also means pub in Mongolian). One
cartoonist has been drawing me as tiger for almost
30 years now. It’s because I’m not that photogenic. Some people still ask me ‘When will Mongolia become a Tiger?’ For the past 20 years, I have
never said the word ‘Tiger’ in public, but despite
this, I always believed deep in my heart that, although the word “Tiger” is no longer trendy today, Mongolia has in fact become an “Asian Tiger” compared to 30 years ago”.
At the closing of the ceremony, a young
journalist asked Gantugs why he translated his
book into English. He answered “Mongolian
history of the last ten years is basically the story
of how we improved our governance. This is
the story about how we were able to unite for
the development of our country; of how the
Mongolian government changed into a modern
government. I thought the book would be useful
for other countries with mineral resources”.
Zaya thought, “Yes, it really is true. After the
2012 election, there was a national level dialogue
and everybody in urban and rural areas discussed
how to spend the anticipated mining revenues.
Young and old, all understood the dangers of
becoming dependent on mining and cash transfers
and everyone came to know terms such as ‘Dutch
disease’ and ‘Gulf syndrome’”. As if he read her
mind, her eldest son asked: “They say that our
country used to be poor. How did we become as
developed as we are now?”
Zaya said “This is a long conversation. But
its history is very short. I will try to tell it briefly.
Bayaraa, my son, prepare me a sweet sauce for
the tomatoes. Add two spoonfuls of sea buckthorn
oil and olive oil on top of a little mustard and stir
well. We will make a nice salad with fresh goat
milk cheese and tomato.”
“It all started from mining, my son. When
we were young, there was mining boom in our
country and abundant coal, copper and gold
deposits were discovered. In addition, uranium
and other rare-earth elements, very scarce in the
world, were also found. Because our population
is so small, we were unable to develop all these

mineral resources ourselves, so we signed
agreements with many large international
companies to jointly development these deposits.
Initially, we were lost; we did not have any
experience about how to use these vast resources.
On top of that, cunning and dishonest people
benefited a lot during this time. The economy
was growing but the people were still very poor.
A few people who sold the mineral claims got
rich quickly and became very influential in
government. The newspapers were always writing
about corruption and embezzlement, but despite
that nobody was held accountable.”
“Mongolian people began to seek justice and,
in the 2012 Parliamentary election, they mainly
elected candidates who promised to work for
justice. Those politicians began to put in place
laws to protect public wealth from embezzlement
by government officials regardless of what
political parties they were from. This worked
and led to new jobs being created and day-today improvement in living standards. Businesses
were no longer owned by the state, investment
projects were developed based on sound estimates
and feasibility studies, and bidders were selected
honestly. Then it was no longer necessary to work
in government to succeed in business. In fact,
it even became difficult for public officials to do
business because of conflict of interest laws. You
see, the danger of corruption is that it increases
public mistrust and decreases incentives. If
businessmen compete on the basis of corruption,
bribery and political cronyism, instead of on
business skills, knowledge and initiative, this cuts
at the foundations of development” she ended,
and set the table. The children were very happy for
their father was returning from work.
While eating dinner, the two sons buried their
parents with questions. “Daddy, did our country
get much money from the mining? How was it
spent?” “Initially”, he said. “it was not easy.
However, after the 2012 election, we agreed to
review the agreements of Tavan Tolgoi and Oyu
Tolgoi mines with our international partners
and set up teams comprised of national and
international specialists. This proved to be very
efficient. As result of the renegotiated investment
agreements, Mongolia started earning quite a
large amount of income from mining. Before,

it was uncertain how much money was being
received by the government; but now it is clear
since it is reported daily, like the weather forecast.
As of today, mining revenue accumulated from
the beginning of the year reached $6.5 billion.”
“Where is the money being spent? Did it get
used for discovering additional mines, Daddy?”
asked Bayaraa. “The government stopped cash
transfers to citizens and mining revenues were
accumulated in a special fund. You see, normally
citizens pay taxes to cover government expenses;
but it would be difficult to monitor government
revenues and spending if mining revenues,
together with taxes, were also accrued into the
budget. Therefore, revenue from natural resources
are deposited in a special fund. This way, the
government became more transparent and didn’t
grow too big. The government allocated trillions
of Tugriks from mining revenues to development
funds for health, education, and infrastructure,
based on public opinions. It was also used to
establish and develop domestic industries. For
example, it is a very good thing that we produce
pure copper from copper concentrates. The
copper is used in household appliances and in
urban development and construction. And you
two know that your mom is very happy that
harmful plastic pots and cups have been replaced
by copper ones.
Zaya continued the conversation and said: “Since
our country has a very fragile natural environment and can’t support uncontrolled mining operations, the government decided to develop only
strategically important large deposits. This was a

very good decision. When there are other opportunities for growing our economy, why destroy
our pristine natural environment and degrade our
country? It is not like we have to feed 100 million
people. There are many ways to feed three to four
million of us”.

On the eve of the Lunar New Year, Batsaikhan Demberel, who won the 2021 Nobel
Prize in medical science along with two Japanese scientists, came back to Mongolia on a
visit and was met with a very warm welcome.
He is just one example of Mongolian scientists
honored internationally and who are working
in important positions around the world. This
is result of sending many of the most talented
children to internationally well-known schools
over the past 10 years. As a result, Mongolian
universities and colleges are staffed with good
teachers and professors and the competitiveness
of Mongolian schools is much improved. Mongolians are proud that their intellectual capacity
has been expanding. Now Mongolians can tackle anything.
Today is Feb 22, 2022. Tomorrow is first day
of the Lunar New Year of the Iron Tiger year.
This is a national holiday in Mongolia, which
leads not only Asia but the entire world in its
economic growth. Today Mongolians wear
traditional clothes and greet each other according
to centuries-old traditions and customs. Fate of
the Mongolians will rise up!


Economic Indicators

indicators
indicators

2011


2,786.13

Real GDP growth

2016

2021

8,720.50 17,999.10

15%

7%

733.82

2,563.25

4,203.2

11%

8%

5%

39%

Government mining
revenues
(mln USD)

6%

20.40%

10.70%

Poverty level

40

42,79
36,5

35

30,9

28

30

2021

Global Integrity,

57

81


9

5


96

65

Open Budget Index
very strong-100)

60

80

Election results mixed in 2012, but no vote buying.
MPs have clear backing from citizens, even if no
political faction is dominant. MPs from various
parties – with strong voter backing – agree to
cooperate

50
45

2011

25

25
20

Parliament leads process of national dialogue on
future of Mongolia. Carefully selects advisors,
carefully educates public.

15
10
5
0


Parliament pledges to high level of transparency on
all development matters – revenues, expenditures,
budgetary calculations.

indicators

2011/2009


2021

281

1600

0

1500

50

3000

38.2

78

0.489

0.3

strong-100)

Decision to keep Mongolia as independent
as possible from foreign economic & political
pressures.
Significant investment in Development Bank, with
mandate to diversify economy.
Central Bank firmly independent. Fiscal Stability
Law firmly backed. Stability Fund well funded and
invested off shore.
Decision to invest massively in education and
in key sectors: food production, tourism, biotechnology.

90

Government and elected officials strive to project
competence, caution, concern for future and long
term.

75%

80
70

60%

60
50

2011

40
30%

30

20%

20
10

5%

10%

0

Savings

Consumption

Investment

2021

2021: ScenarioS

More Related Content

Viewers also liked (20)

Similar to 2021: ScenarioS (20)

More from Mr Nyak (20)

Recently uploaded (20)

2021: ScenarioS