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www.frogdesign.com                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                rc




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Specialized social networks
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Yes, it’s already that transitional time when our current year ends                                                                                                                                                        g st                                                               et                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            w
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and another begins, and today and tomorrow are quickly changing                                                                                                                                                              k K                     ll                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        We e f patina




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       INTELLIGENT
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               type
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hands. Rather than look back at significant trends of the past 366                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     gh
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days (2012 was a leap year, remember?), we asked a wide variety of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     eal
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technologists, designers, and strategists across frog’s studios around                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  a na
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the world to take a look to the future. The near future, that is. “Near”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ic            es w




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in that 2013 is not only upon us, but also “near” in that these technol-                                                                                                                Rip, mix, burn gets physical                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dev
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ogies are highly feasible, commercially viable, and are bubbling up to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Human-computer interaction
the surface of the global zeitgeist. We believe you’ll be hearing a lot                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               gets more humanistic
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more about these trends within the next 12 months, and possibly be
experiencing them in some form, too.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Enhanced online selves
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             TECH
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Here’s our second annual list of Tech Trend predictions for the                                                                                                                               rien                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ti
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coming year. There are 20 individual forecasts and, new for 2013,                                                                                                                          mes m a n n                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            fr




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we’ve also related each prediction to larger waves in business,                                                                                                         e            all
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culture, and innovation.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ph                                                                                   utt
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                                                                                           Van Diemenstraat 20-200                Leopoldstraße 55
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                                                                                           1013 NH Amsterdam                      80802, Munich                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     h
                                                                                           The Netherlands                        Germany
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                                                                                           Tel. +31 (0)20 520 3600                Tel. +49 (0)89 232397 0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  M     b
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For inquiries, please contact                                                              Austin                                 New York                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ur



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business@frogdesign.com                                                                    101 W. 6th Street, Suite 200           325 Hudson Street, 7th Floor                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        l      e

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Faces become interfaces
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                                                                                           Austin, Texas 78701                    New York, New York 10013
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                                                                                           United States                          United States
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                                                                                           Tel. +1 512 477 3764                   Tel. +1 212 965 9700
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frog works with the world’s leading companies, helping them to design, engineer,           Bangalore                              San Francisco




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and bring to market meaningful products and services. With an interdisciplinary team       18/1, Outer Ring Road, Panathur Post   660 3rd Street, 4th Floor




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of more than 1,000 designers, strategists, and software engineers, frog delivers con-      Bangalore 560 103                      San Francisco, California 94107




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nected experiences that span multiple technologies, platforms, and media. frog works       India                                  United States
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   be
across a broad spectrum of industries, including consumer electronics, telecommunica-      Tel. +91 80 4106 7000                  Tel. +1 415 442 4804
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ma
tions, healthcare, energy, automotive, media, entertainment, education, finance, retail,




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and fashion. Clients include Disney, GE, HP, Intel, Microsoft, MTV, Qualcomm, Siemens,     Boston                                 Seattle
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and many other Fortune 500 brands. Founded in 1969, frog is headquartered in San           38 Cameron Avenue, 2nd Floor           413 Pine Street, 2nd Floor




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Francisco, with locations in Amsterdam, Austin, Boston, Bangalore, Johannesburg, Kiev,     Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140         Seattle, Washington 98101




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Milan, Munich, New York, Seattle, Shanghai, and Vinnytsya. frog is a company of the        United States                          United States




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              or
Aricent Group, a global innovation and technology services firm. frogdesign.com            Tel. +1 617 245 1811                   Tel. +1 206 876 3900
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                                                                                           Johannesburg                           Shanghai




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                                                                                           260 Surrey Avenue                      3F building 6, No. 800 Changde Road




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                                                                                           Ferndale, Randburg, 2194               Shanghai 200040




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  th o hysica
                                                                                           South Africa                           China
                                                                                           Tel. +27 11 348 3300                   Tel. +86 21 6157 7188




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                                                                                           Kyiv                                   Vinnytsya
                                                                                           Vasylkivska 14, 3rd Floor              600-richchya Street, 15, 3rd Floor
                                                                                           Kyiv 3040                              Vinnytsya 21021
                                                                                           Ukraine                                Ukraine




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                                                                                           Tel. +38 044 494 26 00                 Tel. +38 0432 55 09 55

                                                                                           Milan
                                                                                           Via Ugo Bassi, 21
© 2012 Aricent Group. All rights reserved.                                                 20159 Milan
All Aricent brand and product names are service marks, trademarks, or registered           Italy
marks of Aricent Inc. in the United States and other countries.                            Tel. +39 02 898 25900                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  For full predictions, please flip to the other side of this poster
20
                                                                                                           get more                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Apps
                                             TECH
                                                                                                                                                                    	 The killer app is going to put the power of           slight degradation in quality is actually part of   professions—researchers, undercover cops,            thinking. And arts education does have its           will be an important part of how we design any
                                                                                                                                                                    ultimate customization in consumers’ hands in           the story and part of our culture. The miniatur-    spies, journalists—whose livelihoods depends         proof of success in the $1 billion valuation of      product or service that’s meant to collect and

                                                                                                           physical                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             become
                                                                                                                                                                    2013, unleashing the new standard for creativ-          ized and regenerated versions of our legacy         on not being recognizable, are in for a bumpy        Airbnb, founded by two RISD graduates.               share knowledge in 2013. By combining eth-
                                                                                                                                                                    ity plus utility.                                       are more often sanitized pointers. The next         ride. While such careers will be destroyed by        	 Companies focused on traditionally “left-          nography with an awareness of what people




                                             TRENDS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             invisible
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            advance in mobile comes not from further min-       real-time recognition, others will be enabled,       brain” tech fields, from healthcare equipment to     are doing through their micro-networks, we
                                                                                                           Matteo Penzo                                                                                                     iaturization of our lives into a smaller package,   as there will be new legions of people that will     enterprise software, will be wise to experiment      can gain visibility into trends that are happen-

                                                                                                                                                                    Interaction
                                                                                                           Technology Director, Milan                                                                                       but rather the unpacking of those experiences       become the true “faces” of brands.                   with crossing over into right-brain territory. Do-   ing, but aren’t always in public view. It can also
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            into the environments around us. Mobile                                                                  ing so could enhance their methods of finding        point us to new and growing private communi-          Thomas Sutton




                                             FOR 2013                                                                                                               Choreogra-
                                                                                                           In 2013, the combination of 20-nanometer                                                                         becomes a halo that surrounds us and travels                                                             fresh ideas and then, more important, adding         ties that help illuminate for us emerging shifts      Executive Creative Director, Milan


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sensors,
                                                                                                           processors (ARM, Intel, and Apple are planning                                                                   with us wherever we go.                                                                                  emotional appeal and details to potential prod-      in customer behavior.

                                                                                                                                                                    phy goes
                                                                                                           launches for Q2/Q3) and 4G Networks becom-                                                                       	 Devices on our bodies will multiply. Sen-                                                              ucts. In this way, consulting with artists could                                                           Some recent popular visions of the future
 www.frogdesign.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                social
                                                                                                           ing available in most countries will alter how we                                                                sors, cameras, input methods, and displays                                                               compliment design beautifully: imagine a world                                                             focus on making every available surface into


                                                                                                                                                                    Shopping                                                                                                                                                                                                              Data
                                                                                                           use our smart phones.                                                                                            will work their way into our clothing. They’ll                                                           with not only more usable and relevant, but                                                                a computing interface, and every moment or


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                networks
                                                                                                           	 Higher computational power, reduced energy                                                                     listen for commands and whisper in our ears.                                                             also more poetic and resonant, objects                                                                     action of the day into a computing interaction.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ecology
                                                                                                           consumption, and faster data communication in                                                                    Our environment will respond to us in new                                                                and experiences.                                                                                           But pundits who prescribe such visions also


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                change
                                                                                                           our hands will accelerate the development of bio-        Jared Ficklin                                           and interesting ways. The proliferation of                                                                                                                                                                          ignore what’s really happening. Computers are


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          becomes
                                                                                                           metric applications, such as the authentication          frog Fellow, Austin                                     large displays and projection technologies                                                                                                                                                                          dissolving in three directions—into the cloud,


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                health                                               The
                                                                                                           of the eye or fingerprints through a hand-held                                                                   will relegate the small display on our phone                                                                                                                                                                        into the environment, and into our bodies—


Human-                                              We lose                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               more
                                                                                                           device’s camera. This will play a big role in            Gesture will quickly become the new technol-            to private or a constrained set of tasks. A new                                                                                                                                                                     but as they do so they are reducing or losing


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                behavior—                                            Experience
                                                                                                           sensitive applications such as mobile banking or         ogy driving shopping experiences at the mall.           layered interaction model of touch, voice, and                                                                                                                                                                      altogether what we would traditionally call an


Computer                                            control of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            diverse
                                                                                                           payments. Pairing biometric authentication with          The proliferation of high-dollar marketing              gesture will emerge as important as con-                                                                                                                                                                            “interface.” Metaphorically, if a laptop browser


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                on a large                                           economy
                                                                                                           voice-based logins will start becoming the norm,         experiences will quickly yield to many more             sumption: the continuous exchange of what                                                                                                                                                                           is a window on the web, a smart phone appli-


Interaction                                         our cars
                                                                                                           granting us faster and more secure access to             gesture-based, brochureware kiosks—where                we are doing, where we are, and who we are                                                                                                                                                                          cation is a keyhole, then the next generation of


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                scale                                                Comes of Age
                                                                                                           information. As a result, private databases stor-        the person-as-controller will find life beyond          with. This will again work into the collective                                                                                                                Scott Nazarian                                        smart devices, applications, and services will


Gets More
                                                                                                           ing bio-information will arise, fueling start-up         living room dancing games.                              memory, attaching to our legacy—bringing                                                                                                                      Creative Director, Seattle                            be pin-pricks.
                                                    Katie Dill                                             and funding action in this area.                                                                                 in a new type of patina effect. It won’t be the                                                                                                                                                                     	 Services like the Nest learning thermostat

Humanistic
                                                    Creative Director, San Francisco                       	 We can look forward to a time when the                                                                         same as physical degradation, yet will offer        Montana Cherney                                      Kalle Buschmann                                      Data is becoming a critical material in the           and Siri show some early indications of what


                                                                                                                                                                    USSD is
                                                                                                           authentication layer won’t be based on our                                                                       fresh stimuli that allow for more meaningful        Associate Creative Director,                         Senior Interaction Designer, Munich                  sustainable success of cities. The flow of infor-     this can mean. Sound, voice, body sensors,
                                                    Our cars are becoming ever more automated.             human memory anymore. In 2013, we’ll move                                                                        navigation and recall.                              San Francisco                                                                                             mation, if analyzed wisely, will help the strongest   location, and movement can be used as explicit


                                                                                                                                                                    the future
Mark Rolston                                        They are parallel parking themselves, monitor-         closer to a time when we won’t be forced to rely                                                                                                                                                                          For a long time Apple has been the poster child      cities of the future survive natural disasters and    or implicit input/output mechanisms. Vast
Chief Creative Officer, Austin                      ing our speed while in cruise control, and now         on easily forgettable (and not very secure) pass-                                                                                                                    Why just prompt behavior change on an indi-          for the product and business development of          population spikes, among other challenges.            amounts of cloud-based computing power can


                                                                                                                                                                    of financial                                            We reach
                                                    they’re even helping us steer. With cameras, sen-      words because each of us, with our biological                                                                                                                        vidual level, when we can do so much more?           experience-driven technology—and its suc-            	 Data production and consumption                     resolve ambiguous instructions, understand
In 2013 we will come to the conclusion that the     sors and robust computer intelligence, the car is      individuality, will become our own password.                                                                                                                         Behavior evolution—or behavior change at scale       cess. But in the last two to three years we have     continues at an inexorable pace, creating             behavioral patterns over time, and reduce


                                                                                                                                                                    inclusion                                               the tablet
technology industry is overdue to create the        getting smarter and more self-sufficient.                                                                                                                                                                                   and over time—is the new frontier. Ubiquitous        seen new players, such as Square and Drop-           ever more symbiotic feedback loops across             “answers” to their simplest and most digest-
next model for human-computer interaction.          	 Americans have long looked at the road and                                                                                                                                                                                connectivity, real-time remote monitoring, and       box, enter the market. As a result, established      both data types and physical experience.              ible form: a couple of words (Siri) or a single

                                                                                                           Automated                                                                                                        tipping
The old PC model has peaked. The world yawns        the ability to drive as a sign of freedom and                                                                                                                                                                               social networking are three of the most prevalent    companies are being pressed to change their          There is not just one stream of “data” waiting        numerical value (Nest). Our hands, eyes, and
at the introduction of yet another iPad, Android    control. Yet in the U.S., fewer twenty- and thirty-                                                             Ravi Chhatpar                                                                                               factors revolutionizing health care. We’ll see       game. Specifically, the big ecosystem players:       to be sifted through, across cities, nations,         minds are free to engage with the real world

                                                                                                           intelli-                                                                                                         point
handset, Windows release, or super-thin laptop.     year-olds are getting their driver’s licenses than                                                              Executive Strategy Director,                                                                                more and more people connect to devices, share       Google with Android, Microsoft with Windows          and the globe—although in many ways we                and real people around us.
Slimmer, smaller, faster doesn’t solve our most     in previous years. This is a trend seen across                                                                  Johannesburg                                                                                                their data, and reach out to others. Doing so will   8 and Surface, and Amazon with the Kindle,           tend to speak of data currently as one enor-          	 In 2013 I expect to see an increasing num-

                                                                                                           gence aids
urgent problems. We need to take the comput-        wealthy nations with high Internet usage. Could                                                                                                                                                                             allow them to enhance their care experiences         have done their homework, redesigned their           mous, abstract entity.                                ber of services that follow this paradigm while
ers out of computing and more humanistically        our Internet connection be our new driver’s                                                                     Although the promise of low-cost smart phones           Mario Van der Meulen                                by relating with others with similar symptoms,       websites, applications, operating systems,           	 One example of a coming interweaving                exploiting today’s mobile phones. I call these

                                                                                                           our digital
integrate them into everyday life.                  license—the conduit to connect, explore, and                                                                    has the potential to fundamentally revolution-          Creative Director, Shanghai                         receiving social support for achieving goals, and    services, and added self-developed hardware.         of various data flows and physicality is the          “invisible apps,” because they shun flashy
                                                    socialize? Perhaps the car isn’t what it once was;                                                              ize emerging markets, the quotidian reality for                                                             “crowdsourcing” treatments and cures.                They all have one common goal, no matter             UID project now in motion throughout India,           infographics and rich GUIs in favor of minimal,

                                                                                                           doppel-
                                                    now it is merely a way from point A to point B, not                                                             many people in Africa, India, China, Southeast          Crystal-balling next year’s trends is never         	 In addition to patients receiving more per-        how different their businesses: to optimize and      which seeks to provide biometric identifica-          timely, personal, and humanized content.


The
                                                    a symbol of freedom that a smart phone is. Marry                                                                Asia, and South America is the simple and               far off from what we see now, but nothing           sonalized guidance, individual health data that      differentiate the customer experience. In 2012       tion for Indian citizens. This initiative, in the     They represent first steps towards a future of

                                                                                                           gängers
                                                    this new reality with safety and energy concerns,                                                               functional feature phone.                               happens overnight. One solution that could          is collected will increasingly be used to provide    many of these efforts saw the light of day, but      world’s second most populous nation, will             technologically supported simplicity.


dawn
                                                    and automated vehicles get more attractive.                                                                     	 For most consumers in these markets,                  make its long promised impact in 2013: the          more proactive care at the population level.         it will be in 2013 that the recent developments      likely introduce unprecedented (biometric-
                                                    	Google’s Sergey Brin claims that in 2017,                                                                      the sophistication of mobile interaction is             dropping price point of tablets. This will start    Yes, many connected care solutions that collect      will reach their climax as customers start to        to-digital) data-scale thresholds in the very

of robotic                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      We face
                                                    “Google’s self-driving cars will be available for      Robert Tuttle                                            defined by the familiarity with which cumber-           to bring a shift from tablets being mini-           individual data exist today, from Patients Like      respond to the new product landscape.                near future. This new scale promises to
                                                    everyone.” This may seem bold, but it’s not sci-       Executive Technology Director, Austin                    some Unstructured Supplementary Service                 computers to their role as the widespread           Me, a data-centric social networking site; Cure      	 One thing that these product ecosystems            trigger emergent experience and interaction

handicraft                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      more tech
                                                    ence fiction either. According to a survey from J.D.                                                            Data, or USSD, codes (keypad commands,                  replacement of printed media, from payment          Together, a health-tracking site; and Asthmapo-      have in common is that they don’t focus on the       needs. The accretion of “new data” (personal/
                                                    Power and Associates of 17,400 vehicle owners,         Monitoring and responding to the ever-increas-           e.g. *141*12-digit-number#dial) are used for            receipts to newspapers to textbooks. Lower          lis, a system that allows patients to connect to a   technology as a key differentiator anymore.          contextual) will begin to intersect over time

(and the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        disruption—
                                                    more than a third (37 percent) of all respondents      ing volume and complexity of the various feeds,          any service outside of voice and SMS (e.g.,             prices will prompt people to buy numerous           mobile app via a sensor-enabled inhaler. In 2013,    Customer experience has become the only              with “big data” (archival) structures, yielding
                                                    said they would be interested in purchasing a fully    threads, walls, streams, notifications, updates,         adding airtime). For mobile innovators, this            tablets, each optimized for different purposes.     expect more services such as these to emerge         source of long-term competitive advantages,          unprecedented “tertiary data”—it begs us

artisanal                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       by nature
                                                    autonomous car (if price wasn’t a factor).             and requests that permeate our digital lives has         is arguably the lowest of the lowest common             Lower prices will also make tablets a game-         and grow. They synthesize information to make        and today the main barrier to great experiences      to wonder, what will we do with this informa-
                                                    	 Meanwhile, many car companies are getting            long become a full-time job. Current personal,           denominators in technology, but it in fact is           changing device in emerging economies in            it more relevant to providers and patients alike,    isn’t the tech. It’s business cases, company         tion? What are the business implications?

handset)
                                                    into the automated vehicle race (including BMW,        professional, and commercial social networking           the most compelling.                                    Africa, South America, and Asia, and will           and therefore actionable; then these services        cultures, and the capabilities to deliver and        The civic ones? Will we create new types of
                                                    GM, Volvo, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Cadil-           services offer relatively crude aggregation and          	 Financial institutions are realizing that             bring new challenges to the interaction             broadcast their analyses to improve the quality      orchestrate the intended experience through          urban experiences that reflect our analyses           Michael McDaniel

arrives
                                                    lac), and as infrastructure increases to support       classification interaction models for managing           attempting to replicate a service borne out of          model worldwide.                                    of life for not just one, but for all.               all touchpoints over time. Likely there will be      of data foremost, versus our creative or              Principal Designer, Austin
                                                    them, the trend is likely to accelerate.               and directing our online personas. In 2013, we’ll        unique and aged local conditions is a losing            	 There has been a documented reduction in                                                               more Chief Experience Officers named in 2013.        philosophical visions?
                                                                                                           be able to find more qualified hired help.               proposition. For several years, Kenya’s M-Pesa          the media industry’s paper usage because of                                                              Such CXOs do exist: McCann-Erickson, the             	 An incredibly diverse data ecology will set         In 2013, I believe Mother Nature will be a major


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The
Jonas Damon                                                                                                	Emerging tools and services will help trans-            has been touted as the seminal example of               the adoption of tablets. These devices also use                                                          ad agency, appointed one in late 2012—with a         the stage in 2013 for the next generation of          disruptor and will have profound, far-reaching


                                                    Virtual
Creative Director, New York                                                                                late our needs and desires into cloud-based              emerging-market innovation, but the reality is          less energy compared to PCs, and could work                                                              graduate degree in interaction design.               municipal and private sector innovations.             impacts on technology in general. Hurricane


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Art of
                                                                                                           automation. They will proactively work on our            that it was a brilliant example of being at the right   well with renewable solutions, such as the solar                                                                                                                                                                    Sandy impacted the densely populated North-


                                                    Manufactur-
As smart phones continue to become                                                                         behalf, guided by our permission and divining            place at the right time, at that perfect intersection   energy grid. These factors, combined with less                                                                                                                                                                      eastern United States with a painful punch in


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Innovation                                           Micro-                                               Smart
the connective tissue of our everyday lives,                                                               our intent. Existing services such as Google’s           of hyper-connectivity (mobile) and non-connec-          of a reliance on a physical transportation and                                                                                                                                                                      late 2012, but with a few months of recovery, in


                                                    ing Starts
their build quality will finally begin to reflect                                                          Prediction API (developers.google.com/pre-               tivity (infrastructure) in a country that needed a      distribution model, where combustion engines                                                                                                                                                                        2013 we will start harvesting ideas that prom-


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Gets Even                                            Networks                                             phone
this significant role. Smart phones are the                                                                diction), which offers pattern-matching and              remittance solution more than anything. It does         still rule, will also help push forward tablets                                                                                                                                                                     ise to help people and communities become


                                                    Small
conduit to the musical scores of our lives;                                                                trainable machine learning capabilities to devel-        not neatly translate into other scenarios; it is not    as the timely, earth-friendly, and cost-saving                                                                                                                                                                      more resilient when facing such a large-scale


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                More                                                 Rise                                                 accesso-
the vessel of friends’, family’s, and strangers’                                                           opers, and IFTTT (ifttt.com/wtf), which offers           a one-size-fits-all solution, and neither should        alternative to paper.                                                                                                                                                                                               tragedy, when lives, homes, and livelihoods
every moment caught in pixels; and the bearer                                                              intuitive, user-friendly, and cloud-based rules          it be. Since M-Pesa’s debut, entrepreneurs and                                                                                                                                                                                                                              were deeply affected—or even destroyed.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Artful                                                                                                    ries become
of written words to just about everyone we          Patrick Kalaher                                        engine expressed in simple “if this, then that”          institutions have tried to replicate M-Pesa in many                                                                                                                                                                                                                         	 The reaction to the widespread and sus-


                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Faces
know (and don’t know). They are the holders         Assistant Vice President,                              terms, are representative of the trend towards           countries over the years and have consistently                                                                                                                   David Sherwin                                                                                              tained loss of power in the New York City area


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          smarter
of every significant artifact that identifies us    Strategy, Boston                                       empowering more automated, if not quite yet              failed. Real financial services disruption that                                                                                                                  Principal Designer, San Francisco                                                                          after Sandy will start spurring tech innovation


                                                                                                                                                                                                                            become
as one out of seven billion other humans.                                                                  artificial, intelligence for our digital alter-egos.     acknowledges the role of the informal sector, the                                                           Reena Jana                                                                                                                                                      in energy and storage. I think that the next
But until now, these devices have been largely      While 3D modeling and 3D printing have                                                                          importance of community, the need for alterna-                                                              Executive Editor, New York                           Micro-networks are intimate communication                                                                  titan of industry, along the lines of Gates or


                                                                                                                                                                                                                            interfaces
made of plastic parts cheaply molded,               been with us for a while now, this year we’ll                                                                   tive assessments of risk, and the blending of                                                                                                                    networks that people form around subjects            Timothy Morey                                         Rockefeller, will be the person who invents


                                                                                                           Rip, Mix,
painted, and snapped together.                      see the rise of virtual manufacturing. Ser-                                                                     traditional financial product categories is what                                                            In 2013, we’ll see more of the world’s engineers,    of interest to them, whether as simple as            Assistant Vice President, Strategy,                   better power storage, not a new form of power
	 Thanks to advancing manufacturing                 vices like Shapeways, Ponoko, Sculpteo and                                                                      will define truly meaningful innovation. And all                                                            scientists, and business people look to art—yes,     their love of chocolate or as complicated as a       San Francisco                                         generation. Better power storage not only

                                                                                                           Burn Gets
innovations and investments, we will see an         i.materialise, which operate as shared factories                                                                of these will still be delivered through that most      Jan Chipchase
                                      to sculpture, architecture, fiction, film—for        shared passion for creating change in a local                                                              keeps things humming when all else fails, but
unprecedented boost in handset build quality.       for hire, will become a common back end for                                                                     simple, basest, crudest of mobile technologies—         Executive Creative Director of                      creative inspiration.                                community. Most of these micro-networks              I recently interviewed a doctor who had               allows all sorts of things to become practical,

                                                                                                           Physical
Smart phones will approach and surpass the          small-scale (10-1,000) unit manufacturing.                                                                      USSD. In 2013, an aspiring innovator will define        Global Insights, San Francisco                      	 Of course, there’s been a long history             are private, and rarely visible to the designer      used AliveCor’s iPhone ECG on a flight to             from electric cars to green energy sources
fine craft and quality traditionally reserved for   Think of this as analogous to the hosting of vir-                                                               success with this approach.                                                                                 of well-rounded innovation dating back               or trend-spotter.                                    diagnose a fellow traveler with a heart attack.       such as solar and wind. Hurricane Sandy pain-
Swiss watches and heirloom jewelry. Original        tual servers in a distributed data center, except                                                                                                                       Starting in 2012, the cues to signal recognition    decades (IBM hiring sculptor Isamu Noguchi           	 These micro-networks have been                     The device is an iPhone cover with sen-               fully illustrated how fragile a centralized power
Device Manufacturers’ (ODM, such as Fox-            in this case, the virtual servers are CNC (Com-        Annie Hsu
                                                                                                       (and the social literacy around those cues) are     and designers Charles and Ray Eames in the           fostered in local communities via face-to-           sors, and the doctor’s diagnosis led to an            grid is. Hopefully, one positive aftereffect of


                                                                                                                                                                    We embrace
conn) investments in robotic assembly lines         puter Numerically Controlled) manufacturing            Senior Strategist, San Francisco                                                                                 set to change. Currently, personalized greet-       1950s) and centuries (the Italian Renais-            face conversation or via email and phone,            emergency landing to get the passenger to             the storm’s impact will be the emergence of
are enabling handset housings to be carved          equipment and the distributed data centers                                                                                                                              ings are commoditized: restaurant workers ask       sance). More recently, a few wide-ranging            but just-in-time communication tools have            hospital. (Yes, he lived.) The iPhone ECG is a        new forms of power storage to rival the energy


                                                                                                                                                                    a new type
out of single blocks of material: the HTC One       are virtual factories, spread around the world.        The notion of taking existing content, remixing                                                                  your name and then shout it when your order is      examples of a growing trend include the New          allowed the content of these conversations to        dramatic example of a plethora of devices I           density found in a single tank of gasoline.
and the Nokia Lumia series have pioneered           Amateur as well as professional designers and          it, and giving it new life in an instant is one that’s                                                           ready; we receive customized spam messages          York Times’ hiring of an artist-in-residence to      persist—and store what people are sharing            expect to see come to market through 2013—

                                                                                                                                                                    of patina
unibody enclosures, setting the table stakes.       makers will essentially be able to print objects       lived primarily in the digital world thus far, due to                                                            and automated birthday wishes. Increasingly,        experiment with compelling data visualiza-           over time. They encourage connection with            smart accessories for smart phones. Smart
Like watch cases, unibody construction leads        to specification any time, without having to           the relatively low cost and nearly instantaneous                                                                 this trend toward the value of commoditized         tion as a competitive advantage; Intel naming        people that had previously not been able to          phones have always had a thriving accessory
to thinner, stronger and stiffer devices. Robots    buy printers and factory space.                        access to content and workable assets.                                                                           recognition will be supplemented by the use of      musician will.i.am as director of creative inno-     join those conversations.                            market, from covers to keyboards, but smart
will enable components to fit together so                                                                   	 The notion of remixing is on the cusp of              Paul Pugh                                               facial recognition software.                        vation, to share his deep awareness of popular       	 Social platforms such as Quora and                 accessories are more than just accessories
closely, every component in a pair will look and                                                           entering the realm of physical objects. One              Vice President of Creative,                             	 Ubiquitous cameras in retail displays, in         culture; and robotics start-up Willow Garage         Facebook have exploited the budding micro-           with sensors. They herald the establishment

                                                    Our relation-
feel custom made for its partner. The iPhone                                                               key driver is the precipitous decline in prices          Software Innovation, Austin                             hotels, in the palms of our hands via our smart     collaborating with a Pixar animator to develop       network trend, allowing knowledge to surface         of smart phones as the primary computing
5’s inlaid glass and ceramic panels are the                                                                of 3D printers. Six years ago, the cheapest                                                                      phones, point toward our faces. Soon, algo-         more attractive machines.                            from these communities. Platforms such as            and connectivity hub linking people to the

                                                    ships with
first out of this gate. Glass-forming technology                                                           machine was $30,000, and today you can find              A key aspect missing from the mobile experi-            rithms will match them with photos, and then        	 Academically, Rhode Island School of               Neighborland, frog’s Collective Action Toolkit,      network. Beyond 2013, our phones will be the
will allow handset screens to be less a cut-out                                                            one for $550. A second driver is consumers’              ence today is the concept of patina, or the             connect us with related personal and profes-        Design President John Maeda—himself a                and Change.org allow micro-networks to gain          center of a sensor network around our bod-

                                                    our smart
shard than a finely ground lens. The Nokia                                                                 ever-increasing expectations of fast shipping,           wearing that comes with regular use. In the             sional information on us available online. In       media artist—has spoken before Congress              momentum and grow around desired political           ies, offices, homes, and cars, and eventually
Lumia 920, with its rolled screen edges, will be                                                           as currently delivered by Amazon Prime and               physical world this might be the dog-eared              2013, as faces increasingly become interfaces,      on the importance of adding arts education           and community change.                                the very cities and spaces we live in. But in

                                                    phones
the first of many artisanal handsets bearing                                                               eBay, priming us for the next generation of              pages of a favorite book or the small scratch           we will begin dealing with new questions around     to science, math, and engineering curricula          	 Identifying micro-networks and ethically           2013, we will take the first step in this journey
this detail, and others.                                                                                   instant gratification.                                   on an LP that occurred at a rocking party. This         the loss of physical anonymity. And some            in the United States to promote inventive            researching how people participate in them           with smart accessories.

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2013 tech trends_poster

  • 1. The ven m n a J a n gets health behavior—on a large scale Sensors, social networks change art e of in re artfu In 20 te Ree ra nov o c tio atio TECH n c oes d F i M on ta n a Che r ney n ho sh c k g re e l a re op l i n s ris Ja og pin ra ork (a T win ph g nd he s th da etw y TRENDS rie er e a wn so rti of ro-n Sh sa ro es na bo a r cc vid Mic l h tic sm ne a r e er an Da ds han t y m pho J o et di FOR 2013 ) c a s arr raf n o t M t OTHY e D a ive be ar s Sm TI co m o n a rs www.frogdesign.com rc M u Specialized social networks fo lo tro c on Te o se l ch e l e Dil W ti Virt ge S u Ka ACHINE al m ts anu fact urin po Yes, it’s already that transitional time when our current year ends g st et w a r ts ic a ne P at race M ric sma mb and another begins, and today and tomorrow are quickly changing k K ll We e f patina INTELLIGENT a la o type he r hands. Rather than look back at significant trends of the past 366 gh Pa u lP u days (2012 was a leap year, remember?), we asked a wide variety of eal pp technologists, designers, and strategists across frog’s studios around a na h um ORE ith the world to take a look to the future. The near future, that is. “Near” ic es w M in that 2013 is not only upon us, but also “near” in that these technol- Rip, mix, burn gets physical Dev 3D PRINTING GOES MAINSTREAM A nnie Hsu ogies are highly feasible, commercially viable, and are bubbling up to Human-computer interaction the surface of the global zeitgeist. We believe you’ll be hearing a lot gets more humanistic M ar k Ro lsto n more about these trends within the next 12 months, and possibly be experiencing them in some form, too. In Enhanced online selves spi ra TECH ce Here’s our second annual list of Tech Trend predictions for the rien ti expe f age on The o coming year. There are 20 individual forecasts and, new for 2013, mes m a n n fr TING my co h om App co n o c Bus s be we’ve also related each prediction to larger waves in business, e all e th Tho co m IS K ma e in e s S visib EX culture, and innovation. ph utt on le ys r i fo ca l s le of ro u re n ut sio w e f clu p a r Ne th n W is ial i h h a ef t di Amsterdam Munich S D nc iC s r a ce Van Diemenstraat 20-200 Leopoldstraße 55 US fina R av M ic up m ti or a e on 1013 NH Amsterdam 80802, Munich h The Netherlands Germany l — e te Tel. +31 (0)20 520 3600 Tel. +49 (0)89 232397 0 M b cD y n h c elgä aids at rs an tle For inquiries, please contact Austin New York ur nge ie business@frogdesign.com 101 W. 6th Street, Suite 200 325 Hudson Street, 7th Floor l e e Faces become interfaces Jan C hip chase ut t tal d lligenc in Austin, Texas 78701 New York, New York 10013 n tT po United States United States le Da Tel. +1 512 477 3764 Tel. +1 212 965 9700 eu ng ber Sc opp ta M e pi ot frog works with the world’s leading companies, helping them to design, engineer, Bangalore San Francisco ec o u r te d i n t tip er Ro t and bring to market meaningful products and services. With an interdisciplinary team 18/1, Outer Ring Road, Panathur Post 660 3rd Street, 4th Floor olo D N let of more than 1,000 designers, strategists, and software engineers, frog delivers con- Bangalore 560 103 San Francisco, California 94107 az n gy ab Va nected experiences that span multiple technologies, platforms, and media. frog works India United States digi ar oma Our t phon be across a broad spectrum of industries, including consumer electronics, telecommunica- Tel. +91 80 4106 7000 Tel. +1 415 442 4804 et sma e o P e n io ia Ma tions, healthcare, energy, automotive, media, entertainment, education, finance, retail, co ar th n and fashion. Clients include Disney, GE, HP, Intel, Microsoft, MTV, Qualcomm, Siemens, Boston Seattle Aut rela tt m M r ch and many other Fortune 500 brands. Founded in 1969, frog is headquartered in San 38 Cameron Avenue, 2nd Floor 413 Pine Street, 2nd Floor es ea Francisco, with locations in Amsterdam, Austin, Boston, Bangalore, Johannesburg, Kiev, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140 Seattle, Washington 98101 tion m er Milan, Munich, New York, Seattle, Shanghai, and Vinnytsya. frog is a company of the United States United States or Aricent Group, a global innovation and technology services firm. frogdesign.com Tel. +1 617 245 1811 Tel. +1 206 876 3900 W ship t more ed es g zo ive Johannesburg Shanghai s wi e 260 Surrey Avenue 3F building 6, No. 800 Changde Road rs Ferndale, Randburg, 2194 Shanghai 200040 e th o hysica South Africa China Tel. +27 11 348 3300 Tel. +86 21 6157 7188 ur p Kyiv Vinnytsya Vasylkivska 14, 3rd Floor 600-richchya Street, 15, 3rd Floor Kyiv 3040 Vinnytsya 21021 Ukraine Ukraine l Tel. +38 044 494 26 00 Tel. +38 0432 55 09 55 Milan Via Ugo Bassi, 21 © 2012 Aricent Group. All rights reserved. 20159 Milan All Aricent brand and product names are service marks, trademarks, or registered Italy marks of Aricent Inc. in the United States and other countries. Tel. +39 02 898 25900 For full predictions, please flip to the other side of this poster
  • 2. 20 get more Apps TECH The killer app is going to put the power of slight degradation in quality is actually part of professions—researchers, undercover cops, thinking. And arts education does have its will be an important part of how we design any ultimate customization in consumers’ hands in the story and part of our culture. The miniatur- spies, journalists—whose livelihoods depends proof of success in the $1 billion valuation of product or service that’s meant to collect and physical become 2013, unleashing the new standard for creativ- ized and regenerated versions of our legacy on not being recognizable, are in for a bumpy Airbnb, founded by two RISD graduates. share knowledge in 2013. By combining eth- ity plus utility. are more often sanitized pointers. The next ride. While such careers will be destroyed by Companies focused on traditionally “left- nography with an awareness of what people TRENDS invisible advance in mobile comes not from further min- real-time recognition, others will be enabled, brain” tech fields, from healthcare equipment to are doing through their micro-networks, we Matteo Penzo iaturization of our lives into a smaller package, as there will be new legions of people that will enterprise software, will be wise to experiment can gain visibility into trends that are happen- Interaction Technology Director, Milan but rather the unpacking of those experiences become the true “faces” of brands. with crossing over into right-brain territory. Do- ing, but aren’t always in public view. It can also into the environments around us. Mobile ing so could enhance their methods of finding point us to new and growing private communi- Thomas Sutton FOR 2013 Choreogra- In 2013, the combination of 20-nanometer becomes a halo that surrounds us and travels fresh ideas and then, more important, adding ties that help illuminate for us emerging shifts Executive Creative Director, Milan Sensors, processors (ARM, Intel, and Apple are planning with us wherever we go. emotional appeal and details to potential prod- in customer behavior. phy goes launches for Q2/Q3) and 4G Networks becom- Devices on our bodies will multiply. Sen- ucts. In this way, consulting with artists could Some recent popular visions of the future www.frogdesign.com social ing available in most countries will alter how we sors, cameras, input methods, and displays compliment design beautifully: imagine a world focus on making every available surface into Shopping Data use our smart phones. will work their way into our clothing. They’ll with not only more usable and relevant, but a computing interface, and every moment or networks Higher computational power, reduced energy listen for commands and whisper in our ears. also more poetic and resonant, objects action of the day into a computing interaction. ecology consumption, and faster data communication in Our environment will respond to us in new and experiences. But pundits who prescribe such visions also change our hands will accelerate the development of bio- Jared Ficklin and interesting ways. The proliferation of ignore what’s really happening. Computers are becomes metric applications, such as the authentication frog Fellow, Austin large displays and projection technologies dissolving in three directions—into the cloud, health The of the eye or fingerprints through a hand-held will relegate the small display on our phone into the environment, and into our bodies— Human- We lose more device’s camera. This will play a big role in Gesture will quickly become the new technol- to private or a constrained set of tasks. A new but as they do so they are reducing or losing behavior— Experience sensitive applications such as mobile banking or ogy driving shopping experiences at the mall. layered interaction model of touch, voice, and altogether what we would traditionally call an Computer control of diverse payments. Pairing biometric authentication with The proliferation of high-dollar marketing gesture will emerge as important as con- “interface.” Metaphorically, if a laptop browser on a large economy voice-based logins will start becoming the norm, experiences will quickly yield to many more sumption: the continuous exchange of what is a window on the web, a smart phone appli- Interaction our cars granting us faster and more secure access to gesture-based, brochureware kiosks—where we are doing, where we are, and who we are cation is a keyhole, then the next generation of scale Comes of Age information. As a result, private databases stor- the person-as-controller will find life beyond with. This will again work into the collective Scott Nazarian smart devices, applications, and services will Gets More ing bio-information will arise, fueling start-up living room dancing games. memory, attaching to our legacy—bringing Creative Director, Seattle be pin-pricks. Katie Dill and funding action in this area. in a new type of patina effect. It won’t be the Services like the Nest learning thermostat Humanistic Creative Director, San Francisco We can look forward to a time when the same as physical degradation, yet will offer Montana Cherney Kalle Buschmann Data is becoming a critical material in the and Siri show some early indications of what USSD is authentication layer won’t be based on our fresh stimuli that allow for more meaningful Associate Creative Director, Senior Interaction Designer, Munich sustainable success of cities. The flow of infor- this can mean. Sound, voice, body sensors, Our cars are becoming ever more automated. human memory anymore. In 2013, we’ll move navigation and recall. San Francisco mation, if analyzed wisely, will help the strongest location, and movement can be used as explicit the future Mark Rolston They are parallel parking themselves, monitor- closer to a time when we won’t be forced to rely For a long time Apple has been the poster child cities of the future survive natural disasters and or implicit input/output mechanisms. Vast Chief Creative Officer, Austin ing our speed while in cruise control, and now on easily forgettable (and not very secure) pass- Why just prompt behavior change on an indi- for the product and business development of population spikes, among other challenges. amounts of cloud-based computing power can of financial We reach they’re even helping us steer. With cameras, sen- words because each of us, with our biological vidual level, when we can do so much more? experience-driven technology—and its suc- Data production and consumption resolve ambiguous instructions, understand In 2013 we will come to the conclusion that the sors and robust computer intelligence, the car is individuality, will become our own password. Behavior evolution—or behavior change at scale cess. But in the last two to three years we have continues at an inexorable pace, creating behavioral patterns over time, and reduce inclusion the tablet technology industry is overdue to create the getting smarter and more self-sufficient. and over time—is the new frontier. Ubiquitous seen new players, such as Square and Drop- ever more symbiotic feedback loops across “answers” to their simplest and most digest- next model for human-computer interaction. Americans have long looked at the road and connectivity, real-time remote monitoring, and box, enter the market. As a result, established both data types and physical experience. ible form: a couple of words (Siri) or a single Automated tipping The old PC model has peaked. The world yawns the ability to drive as a sign of freedom and social networking are three of the most prevalent companies are being pressed to change their There is not just one stream of “data” waiting numerical value (Nest). Our hands, eyes, and at the introduction of yet another iPad, Android control. Yet in the U.S., fewer twenty- and thirty- Ravi Chhatpar factors revolutionizing health care. We’ll see game. Specifically, the big ecosystem players: to be sifted through, across cities, nations, minds are free to engage with the real world intelli- point handset, Windows release, or super-thin laptop. year-olds are getting their driver’s licenses than Executive Strategy Director, more and more people connect to devices, share Google with Android, Microsoft with Windows and the globe—although in many ways we and real people around us. Slimmer, smaller, faster doesn’t solve our most in previous years. This is a trend seen across Johannesburg their data, and reach out to others. Doing so will 8 and Surface, and Amazon with the Kindle, tend to speak of data currently as one enor- In 2013 I expect to see an increasing num- gence aids urgent problems. We need to take the comput- wealthy nations with high Internet usage. Could allow them to enhance their care experiences have done their homework, redesigned their mous, abstract entity. ber of services that follow this paradigm while ers out of computing and more humanistically our Internet connection be our new driver’s Although the promise of low-cost smart phones Mario Van der Meulen by relating with others with similar symptoms, websites, applications, operating systems, One example of a coming interweaving exploiting today’s mobile phones. I call these our digital integrate them into everyday life. license—the conduit to connect, explore, and has the potential to fundamentally revolution- Creative Director, Shanghai receiving social support for achieving goals, and services, and added self-developed hardware. of various data flows and physicality is the “invisible apps,” because they shun flashy socialize? Perhaps the car isn’t what it once was; ize emerging markets, the quotidian reality for “crowdsourcing” treatments and cures. They all have one common goal, no matter UID project now in motion throughout India, infographics and rich GUIs in favor of minimal, doppel- now it is merely a way from point A to point B, not many people in Africa, India, China, Southeast Crystal-balling next year’s trends is never In addition to patients receiving more per- how different their businesses: to optimize and which seeks to provide biometric identifica- timely, personal, and humanized content. The a symbol of freedom that a smart phone is. Marry Asia, and South America is the simple and far off from what we see now, but nothing sonalized guidance, individual health data that differentiate the customer experience. In 2012 tion for Indian citizens. This initiative, in the They represent first steps towards a future of gängers this new reality with safety and energy concerns, functional feature phone. happens overnight. One solution that could is collected will increasingly be used to provide many of these efforts saw the light of day, but world’s second most populous nation, will technologically supported simplicity. dawn and automated vehicles get more attractive. For most consumers in these markets, make its long promised impact in 2013: the more proactive care at the population level. it will be in 2013 that the recent developments likely introduce unprecedented (biometric- Google’s Sergey Brin claims that in 2017, the sophistication of mobile interaction is dropping price point of tablets. This will start Yes, many connected care solutions that collect will reach their climax as customers start to to-digital) data-scale thresholds in the very of robotic We face “Google’s self-driving cars will be available for Robert Tuttle defined by the familiarity with which cumber- to bring a shift from tablets being mini- individual data exist today, from Patients Like respond to the new product landscape. near future. This new scale promises to everyone.” This may seem bold, but it’s not sci- Executive Technology Director, Austin some Unstructured Supplementary Service computers to their role as the widespread Me, a data-centric social networking site; Cure One thing that these product ecosystems trigger emergent experience and interaction handicraft more tech ence fiction either. According to a survey from J.D. Data, or USSD, codes (keypad commands, replacement of printed media, from payment Together, a health-tracking site; and Asthmapo- have in common is that they don’t focus on the needs. The accretion of “new data” (personal/ Power and Associates of 17,400 vehicle owners, Monitoring and responding to the ever-increas- e.g. *141*12-digit-number#dial) are used for receipts to newspapers to textbooks. Lower lis, a system that allows patients to connect to a technology as a key differentiator anymore. contextual) will begin to intersect over time (and the disruption— more than a third (37 percent) of all respondents ing volume and complexity of the various feeds, any service outside of voice and SMS (e.g., prices will prompt people to buy numerous mobile app via a sensor-enabled inhaler. In 2013, Customer experience has become the only with “big data” (archival) structures, yielding said they would be interested in purchasing a fully threads, walls, streams, notifications, updates, adding airtime). For mobile innovators, this tablets, each optimized for different purposes. expect more services such as these to emerge source of long-term competitive advantages, unprecedented “tertiary data”—it begs us artisanal by nature autonomous car (if price wasn’t a factor). and requests that permeate our digital lives has is arguably the lowest of the lowest common Lower prices will also make tablets a game- and grow. They synthesize information to make and today the main barrier to great experiences to wonder, what will we do with this informa- Meanwhile, many car companies are getting long become a full-time job. Current personal, denominators in technology, but it in fact is changing device in emerging economies in it more relevant to providers and patients alike, isn’t the tech. It’s business cases, company tion? What are the business implications? handset) into the automated vehicle race (including BMW, professional, and commercial social networking the most compelling. Africa, South America, and Asia, and will and therefore actionable; then these services cultures, and the capabilities to deliver and The civic ones? Will we create new types of GM, Volvo, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Cadil- services offer relatively crude aggregation and Financial institutions are realizing that bring new challenges to the interaction broadcast their analyses to improve the quality orchestrate the intended experience through urban experiences that reflect our analyses Michael McDaniel arrives lac), and as infrastructure increases to support classification interaction models for managing attempting to replicate a service borne out of model worldwide. of life for not just one, but for all. all touchpoints over time. Likely there will be of data foremost, versus our creative or Principal Designer, Austin them, the trend is likely to accelerate. and directing our online personas. In 2013, we’ll unique and aged local conditions is a losing There has been a documented reduction in more Chief Experience Officers named in 2013. philosophical visions? be able to find more qualified hired help. proposition. For several years, Kenya’s M-Pesa the media industry’s paper usage because of Such CXOs do exist: McCann-Erickson, the An incredibly diverse data ecology will set In 2013, I believe Mother Nature will be a major The Jonas Damon Emerging tools and services will help trans- has been touted as the seminal example of the adoption of tablets. These devices also use ad agency, appointed one in late 2012—with a the stage in 2013 for the next generation of disruptor and will have profound, far-reaching Virtual Creative Director, New York late our needs and desires into cloud-based emerging-market innovation, but the reality is less energy compared to PCs, and could work graduate degree in interaction design. municipal and private sector innovations. impacts on technology in general. Hurricane Art of automation. They will proactively work on our that it was a brilliant example of being at the right well with renewable solutions, such as the solar Sandy impacted the densely populated North- Manufactur- As smart phones continue to become behalf, guided by our permission and divining place at the right time, at that perfect intersection energy grid. These factors, combined with less eastern United States with a painful punch in Innovation Micro- Smart the connective tissue of our everyday lives, our intent. Existing services such as Google’s of hyper-connectivity (mobile) and non-connec- of a reliance on a physical transportation and late 2012, but with a few months of recovery, in ing Starts their build quality will finally begin to reflect Prediction API (developers.google.com/pre- tivity (infrastructure) in a country that needed a distribution model, where combustion engines 2013 we will start harvesting ideas that prom- Gets Even Networks phone this significant role. Smart phones are the diction), which offers pattern-matching and remittance solution more than anything. It does still rule, will also help push forward tablets ise to help people and communities become Small conduit to the musical scores of our lives; trainable machine learning capabilities to devel- not neatly translate into other scenarios; it is not as the timely, earth-friendly, and cost-saving more resilient when facing such a large-scale More Rise accesso- the vessel of friends’, family’s, and strangers’ opers, and IFTTT (ifttt.com/wtf), which offers a one-size-fits-all solution, and neither should alternative to paper. tragedy, when lives, homes, and livelihoods every moment caught in pixels; and the bearer intuitive, user-friendly, and cloud-based rules it be. Since M-Pesa’s debut, entrepreneurs and were deeply affected—or even destroyed. Artful ries become of written words to just about everyone we Patrick Kalaher engine expressed in simple “if this, then that” institutions have tried to replicate M-Pesa in many The reaction to the widespread and sus- Faces know (and don’t know). They are the holders Assistant Vice President, terms, are representative of the trend towards countries over the years and have consistently David Sherwin tained loss of power in the New York City area smarter of every significant artifact that identifies us Strategy, Boston empowering more automated, if not quite yet failed. Real financial services disruption that Principal Designer, San Francisco after Sandy will start spurring tech innovation become as one out of seven billion other humans. artificial, intelligence for our digital alter-egos. acknowledges the role of the informal sector, the Reena Jana in energy and storage. I think that the next But until now, these devices have been largely While 3D modeling and 3D printing have importance of community, the need for alterna- Executive Editor, New York Micro-networks are intimate communication titan of industry, along the lines of Gates or interfaces made of plastic parts cheaply molded, been with us for a while now, this year we’ll tive assessments of risk, and the blending of networks that people form around subjects Timothy Morey Rockefeller, will be the person who invents Rip, Mix, painted, and snapped together. see the rise of virtual manufacturing. Ser- traditional financial product categories is what In 2013, we’ll see more of the world’s engineers, of interest to them, whether as simple as Assistant Vice President, Strategy, better power storage, not a new form of power Thanks to advancing manufacturing vices like Shapeways, Ponoko, Sculpteo and will define truly meaningful innovation. And all scientists, and business people look to art—yes, their love of chocolate or as complicated as a San Francisco generation. Better power storage not only Burn Gets innovations and investments, we will see an i.materialise, which operate as shared factories of these will still be delivered through that most Jan Chipchase
 to sculpture, architecture, fiction, film—for shared passion for creating change in a local keeps things humming when all else fails, but unprecedented boost in handset build quality. for hire, will become a common back end for simple, basest, crudest of mobile technologies— Executive Creative Director of creative inspiration. community. Most of these micro-networks I recently interviewed a doctor who had allows all sorts of things to become practical, Physical Smart phones will approach and surpass the small-scale (10-1,000) unit manufacturing. USSD. In 2013, an aspiring innovator will define Global Insights, San Francisco Of course, there’s been a long history are private, and rarely visible to the designer used AliveCor’s iPhone ECG on a flight to from electric cars to green energy sources fine craft and quality traditionally reserved for Think of this as analogous to the hosting of vir- success with this approach. of well-rounded innovation dating back or trend-spotter. diagnose a fellow traveler with a heart attack. such as solar and wind. Hurricane Sandy pain- Swiss watches and heirloom jewelry. Original tual servers in a distributed data center, except Starting in 2012, the cues to signal recognition decades (IBM hiring sculptor Isamu Noguchi These micro-networks have been The device is an iPhone cover with sen- fully illustrated how fragile a centralized power Device Manufacturers’ (ODM, such as Fox- in this case, the virtual servers are CNC (Com- Annie Hsu
 (and the social literacy around those cues) are and designers Charles and Ray Eames in the fostered in local communities via face-to- sors, and the doctor’s diagnosis led to an grid is. Hopefully, one positive aftereffect of We embrace conn) investments in robotic assembly lines puter Numerically Controlled) manufacturing Senior Strategist, San Francisco set to change. Currently, personalized greet- 1950s) and centuries (the Italian Renais- face conversation or via email and phone, emergency landing to get the passenger to the storm’s impact will be the emergence of are enabling handset housings to be carved equipment and the distributed data centers ings are commoditized: restaurant workers ask sance). More recently, a few wide-ranging but just-in-time communication tools have hospital. (Yes, he lived.) The iPhone ECG is a new forms of power storage to rival the energy a new type out of single blocks of material: the HTC One are virtual factories, spread around the world. The notion of taking existing content, remixing your name and then shout it when your order is examples of a growing trend include the New allowed the content of these conversations to dramatic example of a plethora of devices I density found in a single tank of gasoline. and the Nokia Lumia series have pioneered Amateur as well as professional designers and it, and giving it new life in an instant is one that’s ready; we receive customized spam messages York Times’ hiring of an artist-in-residence to persist—and store what people are sharing expect to see come to market through 2013— of patina unibody enclosures, setting the table stakes. makers will essentially be able to print objects lived primarily in the digital world thus far, due to and automated birthday wishes. Increasingly, experiment with compelling data visualiza- over time. They encourage connection with smart accessories for smart phones. Smart Like watch cases, unibody construction leads to specification any time, without having to the relatively low cost and nearly instantaneous this trend toward the value of commoditized tion as a competitive advantage; Intel naming people that had previously not been able to phones have always had a thriving accessory to thinner, stronger and stiffer devices. Robots buy printers and factory space. access to content and workable assets. recognition will be supplemented by the use of musician will.i.am as director of creative inno- join those conversations. market, from covers to keyboards, but smart will enable components to fit together so The notion of remixing is on the cusp of Paul Pugh facial recognition software. vation, to share his deep awareness of popular Social platforms such as Quora and accessories are more than just accessories closely, every component in a pair will look and entering the realm of physical objects. One Vice President of Creative, Ubiquitous cameras in retail displays, in culture; and robotics start-up Willow Garage Facebook have exploited the budding micro- with sensors. They herald the establishment Our relation- feel custom made for its partner. The iPhone key driver is the precipitous decline in prices Software Innovation, Austin hotels, in the palms of our hands via our smart collaborating with a Pixar animator to develop network trend, allowing knowledge to surface of smart phones as the primary computing 5’s inlaid glass and ceramic panels are the of 3D printers. Six years ago, the cheapest phones, point toward our faces. Soon, algo- more attractive machines. from these communities. Platforms such as and connectivity hub linking people to the ships with first out of this gate. Glass-forming technology machine was $30,000, and today you can find A key aspect missing from the mobile experi- rithms will match them with photos, and then Academically, Rhode Island School of Neighborland, frog’s Collective Action Toolkit, network. Beyond 2013, our phones will be the will allow handset screens to be less a cut-out one for $550. A second driver is consumers’ ence today is the concept of patina, or the connect us with related personal and profes- Design President John Maeda—himself a and Change.org allow micro-networks to gain center of a sensor network around our bod- our smart shard than a finely ground lens. The Nokia ever-increasing expectations of fast shipping, wearing that comes with regular use. In the sional information on us available online. In media artist—has spoken before Congress momentum and grow around desired political ies, offices, homes, and cars, and eventually Lumia 920, with its rolled screen edges, will be as currently delivered by Amazon Prime and physical world this might be the dog-eared 2013, as faces increasingly become interfaces, on the importance of adding arts education and community change. the very cities and spaces we live in. But in phones the first of many artisanal handsets bearing eBay, priming us for the next generation of pages of a favorite book or the small scratch we will begin dealing with new questions around to science, math, and engineering curricula Identifying micro-networks and ethically 2013, we will take the first step in this journey this detail, and others. instant gratification. on an LP that occurred at a rocking party. This the loss of physical anonymity. And some in the United States to promote inventive researching how people participate in them with smart accessories.