Elections and the Economy: Taxes, Wages, Electors, Winners and Losers
- 1. ELECTIONS AND THE ECONOMY: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE 1 Douglas B. Roberts, Ph.D. Director Institute for Public Policy & Social Research College of Social Science Michigan State University
- 2. Source: Wards Automotive News, Michigan Senate Fiscal Agency, Citizens Research Council, IPPSR Research, Bloomberg Visual Data 2 40.0 44.0 48.0 52.0 56.0 60.0 64.0 68.0 72.0 76.0 9 11 13 15 17 U.S. car maker light vehicle sales (in millions) Detroit 3 Market Share and Light Vehicle Sales Market Share (percentage) Light vehicle sales
- 3. 3 Unemployment Rates: Michigan and U.S. (1966-2013) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics MI 2014 average to date: 7.56% U.S. 2014 average to date: 6.32% MI August 2014: 7.40 U.S. September 2014: 5.90
- 4. Year Michigan (in thousands) Change 1989 3,922 2.70% 1990 3,947 0.60% 1991 3,884 -1.60% 1992 3,919 0.90% 1993 3,999 2.00% 1994 4,142 3.60% 1995 4,269 3.10% 1996 4,353 2.00% 1997 4,439 2.00% 1998 4,514 1.70% 1999 4,585 1.60% 2000 4,677 2.00% 2001 4,564 -2.40% 2002 4,488 -1.70% 2003 4,417 -1.60% 2004 4,400 -0.40% 2005 4,390 -0.20% 2006 4,327 -1.40% 2007 4,288 -1.40% 2008 4,159 -2.60% 2009 3,870 -6.80% 2010 3,863 -.18% 2011 3,952 2.3% 2012 4033 2.1% 2013 4,105 1.8% Michigan Wage and Salary Employment –1989-2014 25 years total, 11 negative years, 10 years in a row: 2001-2010 Source: Michigan Senate Fiscal Agency, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 4
- 5. Year Michigan U.S. 1970 100 100 1980 104.3 111.4 1990 104.7 122.4 2000 111.9 138.4 2010 111.3 151.9 Michigan by the numbers: population trends Source: U.S. Census, Michigan Senate Fiscal Agency 5
- 6. Rise and Fall of Michigan’s Congressional Delegation 1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 19 18 16 15 14 12 13 13 17 17 18 19 Source: Courtesy of Michigan Chamber of Commerce 6
- 7. 7 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 105000 110000 115000 120000 125000 Public High School Diplomas Issued Public + Nonpublic Data and projections source: “Knocking at the College Door 2012, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education with support from ACT College Board
- 8. ◦ All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives ◦ 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate contested ◦ 36 state governors ◦ 46 state legislatures (except Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia) ◦ Numerous state and local races 8
- 9. Governor & Lieutenant Governor Secretary of State Attorney General U.S. Senate Congress State Senator State Representative Board of State Education University Regents, Trustees, Governors County Commissioners Justice of Supreme Court (8 year and partial term) Judges of Courts of Appeals Judges of Circuit Courts Judges of Probate Courts Community College Boards Local School Boards Statewide Referendum Local Millages Other Local Ballot Issues 9
- 10. Michigan Governor – Republican Michigan Secretary of State – Republican Michigan Attorney General – Republican Michigan U.S. Senate delegation – 2 Democrats Michigan U.S. House delegation – 9 Republicans, 5 Democrats Michigan Supreme Court – 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats (full and partial-term seats) Michigan Senate – 26 Republicans, 12 Democrats Michigan House – 59 Republicans, 50 Democrats, 1 Independent 10
- 11. 11 At the Top of the 2014 Ticket
- 12. 12 Year Total MI vote (for all gubernatorial candidates) Race 2004 4,839,252 President (Bush/Kerry) 2006 3,801,256 Governor (Granholm/Devos) 2008 5,001,766 President (Obama/McCain) 2010 3,226,088 Governor (Snyder/Bernero) 2012 4,730,961 President (Obama/Romney) 2014 Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 Governor (Schauer/Snyder) Source: Michigan Secretary of State
- 13. 13 Source: Michigan Secretary of State 2004 PRESIDENTIALRace Bush 2,313,746 47.8% Kerry 2,479,183 51.2% Total (cast for major candidates) 4,792,929 2006 GUBERNATORIAL Race Granholm 2,142,513 56.30% DeVos 1,608,086 42.30% Total 3,750,599 2008 PRESIDENTIALRace Obama 2,872,579 57.30% McCain 2,048,639 40.90% Total 4,921,218 2010 GUBERNATORIAL Race Snyder 1,874,834 58.1% Bernero 1,287,320 39.9% Total 3,162,154 2012 PRESIDENTIAL Race Obama 2,564,569 54.2% Romney 2,115,256 44.7% Total 4,679,825
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- 15. Constitutional Language ◦ Article IV Legislative Branch Sec 41 Lotteries 15 “The Legislature may authorize lotteries and permit the sale of lottery tickets in the manner provided by law.” Voted on May 16, 1972 – Began on August 1, 1972 P.A. 239, 1972 Established the State Lottery Fund and earmarked all net funds be deposited in the state’s General Fund. Myth Buster: Lottery Money was never intended solely for education.
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- 18. 18 Date Amendment Yes No Nov 1972 Cut Property Taxes and Increase Income Tax 42% 58% Nov 1972 Permit Graduated Income Tax 31% 69% Nov 1980 Cut Property Taxes and Increase Sales Tax 26% 74% May 1981 Cut Property Taxes and Increase Sales Tax 28% 72% 1987 Harden/Runkel Commission ---- ---- Nov 1989 Cut Property Taxes and Increase Sales Tax 24% 76% Nov 1989 Increase Sales Tax From 4% to 4.5% 28% 72% Nov 1992 Cut & Cap 41% 59% June 1993 Cut Property Taxes and Increase Sales Tax – Bipartisan 46% 54% March 1994 Proposal A 69% 31%
- 19. Date Amendment Yes No May 1972* Permit Lottery 73% 27% Nov 1974 Eliminate Sales Tax on Food & Drugs 56% 44% Nov 1976 Permit a Graduated Income Tax 28% 72% Nov 1978 Headlee Amendment 52% 48% Nov 1978 Permit Vouchers 26% 74% Nov 1992 Term Limits 59% 41% 19
- 20. 20 ▶ Chrysler Bailout ▶ Income Tax Increase (1982) ▶ Income Tax Increase (1983) ▶ House Fiscal Agency Scandal (1993) ▶ Detroit Busing ($7 million) ▶ Bring Your Toothbrush…!
- 21. 21 Douglas B. Roberts, Ph.D. Director Institute for Public Policy & Social Research College of Social Science Michigan State University 517-355-6672 Ippsr.msu.edu