2020 Housing Challenge Presentation

2020 Housing Challenge:
Addressing Critical Challenges to
Home Affordability in Fairfax County
March 11, 2020

Today’s Agenda:
• 9 a.m. to 10 a.m. Welcome & Plenary
• 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. Understanding the Policy Challenges
• 11 to 11:30 a.m. 2020 Housing Challenge Rules & Overview
• 11:30 a.m.to 12 p.m. Work Lunch & Teaming
• 12 to 3:45 p.m. Team Time
• 4 to 5 p.m. Pitch Session
• 5 to 5:30 p.m. Reception
• 5:30 p.m. Award Presentation & Closing
3

Dr. Maury Peiperl
Dean
George Mason University
School of Business
4

Chuck Bean
Executive Director
Metropolitan Washington
Council of Governments
6

THE FUTURE OF HOUSING IN
GREATER WASHINGTON
Chuck Bean
COG Executive Director
Fairfax Housing Challenge
March 11, 2020

The Future of Housing in Greater Washington
March 11, 2020
About COG
• An independent, nonprofit
association
• Brings area leaders together to
address regional challenges in
the District of Columbia,
suburban Maryland, and
northern Virginia
• Membership comprised of 300
elected officials from 24 local
governments, the Maryland and
Virginia state legislatures, and
U.S. Congress
8

March 11, 2020
9
The Challenge

March 11, 2020
10
Each day, 325,000+ workers commute to jobs
from outside the region.

March 11, 2020
11
Housing Construction
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Housing Construction Permits by Year
In Metropolitan Washington
Total
32,257
10,738
21,410*

March 11, 2020
12
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total
32,257
10,738
21,410*
“Catch up rate by 2030”

March 11, 2020
13
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total
32,257
10,738
21,410*
“Catch up rate by 2030”

March 11, 2020
14
COG forecasts 1.5M more people,
1.1M more jobs between 2015-2045.

March 11, 2020
15
D.C. region + Philadelphia
(Pierre
Blaché/Flickr)

March 11, 2020
16
~245K
Forecast
~75K
Shortfall
~320K
Total New
Units
Needed
Housing Needs, 2020-2030

March 11, 2020
11
Housing Challenge, summarized
• In the past, not enough housing was built.
• In the future, significant growth is projected.
• How do we take action to ensure an adequate housing supply that
offers:
• options for all residents,
• better leverages our transportation system,
• and enhances our region’s economic competitiveness?

March 11, 2020
18
Regional Housing Targets

March 11, 2020
COG Regional Housing Targets
13

March 11, 2020
14
Regional
Target 1:
AMOUNT
How much new housing should be added in
the region and by when?
• The region needs to increase the number of planned housing units by
over 75,000 additional homes between now and 2030, beyond the
245,000 currently forecast.

March 11, 2020
15
• Activity centers, locations identified as ideal for growth, and areas near
high capacity transit can accommodate the additional housing.
• 2010 Region Forward goal of 50% of new housing in Activity Centers.
Region is currently achieving 68%; proposed new target of 75%.
ACCESSIBILITY
How much of the additional housing
should be located in Activity Centers and
near high-capacity transit?
Regional
Target 2:

March 11, 2020
16
• Urban Institute: Many more housing units will be needed in the lowest
to middle cost bands to accommodate both expected and additional
growth.
• 75% affordable to low-and-middle income households.
Regional
Target 3:
AFFORDABILITY
At what price points should housing
be added to accommodate the type of
household growth anticipated?

March 11, 2020
23
Moving Forward

March 11, 2020
18
Moving Forward
1. Land use and zoning
2. Transit
3. Funding and financing
4. Design
5. Construction innovations
6. Different residential patterns

March 11, 2020
19
Land use and zoning

March 11, 2020
(Elvert Barnes/Flickr)
8
Transit
(BeyondDC/Flickr)
(Frank Gruber/Flickr)

March 11, 2020
Accessibility:
An Opportunity
27
• Optimize land use around
200+ high-capacity transit
station areas, enhance
transportation connectivity
to housing and jobs.
• Better leverage billions in
transportation
investments.
27

March 11, 2020
Connectivity in HCT Station Areas
28
• Examine options to improve
connectivity within HCT station
areas.
• Walkshed analysis.
• Micromobility analysis
(bicycles, scooters).
• Microtransit analysis
(shuttles, small feeder
buses).

March 11, 2020
23
Funding and finance

March 11, 2020
24
Design
Daniel Parolek, Opticos Design, Inc.

March 11, 2020
25
Design
(Matthew Fitzpatrick/University of
Maryland Center for Environmental
Science)
(City of Falls Church)

March 11, 2020
26
Design
(Matthew Fitzpatrick/University of
Maryland Center for Environmental
Science)
(City of Falls Church)

March 11, 2020
27
Construction Innovation
(3DPrinthuset /Wikipedia)

March 11, 2020
28
Different Residential Patterns

March 11, 2020
35
COG forecasts 1.5M more people,
1.1M more jobs between 2015-2045.
Our regional plan for this growth:
• 1,125,000 people (75%)
• 825,000 jobs (75%)
in less than
• 370 square miles (10%) along HCT station
areas

Chuck Bean
COG Executive Director
cbean@mwcog.org
mwcog.org
777 North Capitol Street NE, Suite 300
Washington, DC 20002

Hon. Jeffrey McKay
Chairman
Fairfax County Board of
Supervisors
37

Understanding
the Policy
Challenges
38

Michelle Krocker
Executive Director
Northern Virginia Affordable
Housing Alliance
Challenge A
Design a
Communications
Strategy

Building Support for Affordable Housing Initiatives:
Top 10 Communications Strategies
Michelle Krocker
Executive Director
NorthernVirginia Affordable Housing Alliance

STRATEGY 1:
“People aren’t blank slates. We come to conversations
with previous ideas, values and experiences. These
‘frames’ cause us to generate assumptions that shape
the way we see everything so the goal is to understand
the frames and use that knowledge to communicate more
effectively.”
Neighborhood Partnerships

STRATEGY 2:
Lead your communications with shared community values
• Fairness
• Opportunity
• Prosperity
• Family well-being
• Racial equity
• Housing is something all people need and desire

STRATEGY 3:
Have a definition of housing affordability that is easy-to-
understand
• HUD definition: an "affordable dwelling" is one that a household
can obtain for 30 percent or less of its income. But this varies
from city to city.
• Easy to Understand: Housing is affordable when you can pay
the rent and have sufficient income left for food, transportation,
child care and medical expenses.

STRATEGY 4:
Identify the need, but focus your communications on the
solution. We know how to solve this!
• More data is not better; it can overwhelm the audience and
promote a sense that the problem can’t be solved
• Share complex data in easy-to understand, visually appealing
formats
• Simplify numbers and use comparisons
• Emphasize role of community-based organizations in problem-
solving

STRATEGY 5:
Successful Campaigns Feature Shared Community Benefits
• Kids do better in school when they live in stable housing
• Our business community can recruit and retain employees
when there are affordable housing opportunities in the
community

STRATEGY 6:
Enlist new messengers who can articulate their self-
interest in a more stable, affordable housing market
that benefits the community

STRATEGY 7:
The shortage of housing that is affordable is a systems
failure; not the failure of an individual or family
• As a community we’ve made certain choices. As a result, some
people are living on the edge.
• Public policies that limit housing supply
• Uneven distribution of resources
• Racial and social inequity limits access to quality affordable
housing

STRATEGY 8:
Communicate Early and Often and Share Success Stories
• Share progress in frequent, timely communications.
• This provides accurate and continuous information that can
engage citizens and make them feel a sense of ownership in
the process of creating solutions.

STRATEGY 9:
To attract the largest audience, use all the tools in your
media toolkit
• A website is a passive tool for communication, but social media
can direct your audience there
• Use Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, YouTube, blogs and webinars

STRATEGY 10:
How do you Measure Success?
• Increased community conversation about housing affordability
• New, supportive community messengers
• Less community opposition at public meetings
• More affordable housing is developed

Michelle Krocker
Executive Director
NorthernVirginia Affordable Housing Alliance
michellekrocker@nvaha.org
www.nvaha.org | www.housingtoolkit.org

Brian McLaughlin
President, CEO
Enterprise Community
Development, Inc.
Challenge B
Engaging
Non-Traditional
Partners

53
Fairfax County
2020 Housing Challenge
March 11, 2020
Presentation by Brian P. McLaughlin
President & CEO
Enterprise Community Development, Inc.

54
Enterprise’s Experiences in Fairfax County
A Fairfax County Partner
Island Walk: 102
Stony Brook Apartments: 204 units
New Lake Anne House: 240 units
Community Impact Services Work

55
Understanding
Affordability
Incomes & AMIs
Cashiers: 20% AMI
Security Officers: 30% AMI
Bookeepers: 41% AMI
Washington DC AMIs

56
Why Non-Traditional
Partners?
We aren’t making
enough progress
under “Traditional”
paths
• Growing population of
“housing insecure”
households
Engaging Non-Traditional Partners

57
“Traditional”
Often Becomes
Inadequate
in a Rapidly
Changing
World
Engaging Non-Traditional Partners

58
What Should the Introduction of Non-
Traditional Partners Achieve?
1. More of the same
• Draw in additional groups that build more of the same
2. More that is different
• Draw in additional groups that take an alternative approach to
address the issue (new design, new locations, formulations of the
issue…)
3. Accelerate start of a new system
• New partners force new thinking, spurring broad innovation and
new-found synergies within the industry, leading to new
partnerships, strategies and results

59
What Levers Could we Focus on to
Have the Most Impact?
Change the Supply?
Focus on factors that constrain the number of good-
quality units in the County
Change the Demand?
Emphasize the underlying conditions that give rise to the
number of people needing below-market rents in the
County

60
Non-Traditional
Partners
Supply Side
Focus

]
61
Some Binding
Constraints
SUPPLY SIDE CHALLENGES
1. Shortage of Available Land for New
Construction
• Developable land is scarce
• NIMBYism
2. Shortage of Subsidies to Make
Projects “Affordable”
• Few federal and local sources
• Very limited philanthropic & other sector
involvement
3. Low Turnover within Existing Supply
Inventory
• Economic mobility is difficult, and few that
qualify for affordable housing today graduate
out of it quickly

]
62
Non-Traditional Partners for
Overcoming Supply Side Constraints
SUPPLY SIDE SOLUTIONS
1. Net Savers - partners that will ultimately see a direct savings to
their long-term operational cost curves if the housing system is
improved
• Hospitals
• Health Care System – Public Payers
• Heath Care System – Private Insurers
• Criminal Justice System

]
63
Overcoming Supply Side Constraints
2. Solution Seekers: Philanthropic, mission and socially-
concerned organizations with funds to contribute
• Foundations
• Individual Philanthropists
• Social Impact Investors
• Local Government

]
64
Non-Traditional
Approaches
3. Up the “Graduation” Rate
• Invest in activities and work that will help advance
families out of poverty
4. Redefine the Supply
• Consider bedrooms rather than units
5. Rethink Land Use Policy and Patterns
• More intensity and parity through mixed-used and mixed-income
• Overcome aspects of NIMBYism (inclusionary housing policies)

65
Non-Traditional
Partners
Demand Side
Focus

]
66
Some Binding
Constraints
DEMAND SIDE CHALLENGES
1. Insufficient Income to Pay Market-Rate Rent
• Can’t find good quality units with rents at roughly 30% of income
2. Reasonable Income but “Non-Rent” Expenses Leave Too Little for
Market-Rate Rent
• Day care, transportation and utility costs can quickly add up to 30% of income
3. Aging Population with Limited and Fixed Incomes
• Growing cohort of lower income seniors with significant housing needs

]
67
Some Binding
Constraints
DEMAND SIDE CHALLENGES
4. Changing Face of Work Leaving Many Behind
• Skills needed to succeed in today’s workplace increasingly out
of reach for many
5. Special Needs Populations Continuing to be
Underserved
• Physically limited and disabled
• Mental heath challenged
• Youth aging out of foster care
6. Poverty Begets Poverty Too Often
• Lower-income children become lower-income adults
• Lower-income adults less able to financially support their aging
parents

]
68
Overcoming Demand Side Constraints
DEMAND SIDE SOLUTIONS
1. Employers: various options including discounted on-site daycare
2. Policymakers: living wages, TOD policies
3. Public Payers: increasing support levels
4. Skill and Career Advancement Programs: doing more
5. Many Others...from the individual to systems & structures

69
THANK YOU
Brian P. McLaughlin
President & CEO
Enterprise Community Development, Inc.
DC Metro Region Office Tel: 202.885.9577
Maryland Office Tel: 410.230.2104
bmclaughlin@enterprisecommunity.org

Carmen Romero
Vice President of Real Estate
Development
Arlington Partnership for
Affordable Housing
Challenge C
Engaging
Houses of Worship

Arlington Partnership for
Affordable Housing
Mission-Centered Development
with Houses of Worship
March 11, 2020

Carmen
Romero
President and CEO
Arlington Partnership
for Affordable
Housing (APAH)
cromero@apah.org
https://apah.org/
About APAH …
• Non-profit, award-winning, innovative affordable
housing developer
• Developed and owns over 1,800+ rental homes at
17 properties with 800+ units in development.
$400MM in assets.
• Partners with local non-profits for resident
programs. Ten percent of units are dedicated to
housing formerly homeless and persons with
disabilities.
• Governed by a board of community leaders and
business leaders
• Operates throughout the DMV, including Arlington,
Fairfax, Loudoun and Montgomery counties
72
Introductions

APAH Portfolio
Highlights
Columbia Hills
• 229 affordable units, delivered Oct. 2018
• APAH’s first hybrid 4% and 9% financing
• Built on surface parking lot of existing
LIHTC garden apartment complex on
rezoned land
The Springs
• 104 units, delivered in 2016
• Leveraged density on older garden apt
Arlington Mill
• 122 affordable units, delivered in 2014
• Public-private partnership with housing
atop County-owned parking garage with
75-year ground lease
• County Community Center on shared
site
73

Housing
Costs Are
Increasingly
Out of
Reach for
Working
Households
Sources:
U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey; National Housing Conference
Paycheck to Paycheck
74

More Households are Rent Burdened
2015, US Census Bureau, American Community Survey
Almost a quarter of all households in the Washington Metro area
pay over 50% of their income on rent

Increasing density at existing affordable housing
• Queens Court – redeveloped garden apartments into high
rise
Public land for new or co-located housing
• Arlington Mill – discounted ground lease at County-
developed Community Center
• Oakwood Apartments - new infill at underutilized
stormwater site in Fairfax
Partnering at Underutilized Civic Properties and
Houses of Worship
• Gilliam Place – Faith partnership with Arlington
Presbyterian Church
• Terwilliger Place – partnership with American Legion Post
Affordable Housing Bonus Density
• Mt. Sterling Senior – Facilitating market/affordable
development at 22-acre site
Land Use Tools for Development
76Gilliam Place, 173 units
Queens Court, 249 units
Arlington Mill, 122 units

• Worked with Arlington Presbyterian Church (APC)
to purchase their property and construct a new
mixed-use community
• Land conveyance structure and approvals major
part of the early predevelopment phase (5 years)
• Arlington County creative land acquisition loan
• 173 affordable units opened Summer 2019
• APAH non-profit master leased for ground-floor
retail includes:
• APC as a tenant with flexible worship space
and funds to expand mission
• La Cocina VA, a kitchen incubator, café and
workforce training center, that delivers hot
food weekly to APAH properties to
supplement weekly grocery distributions
APAH Houses of Worship Case Study
77
Gilliam Place

• Discernment and Education
• Quick Feasibility and Appraisal
• Build your team- internal and external
• Secure approvals
• Design and Construction if the transaction
involves delivery of new facilities for House
of Worship
• Operations post-construction
• Celebrations
Other tips:
Leadership patience
Set priorities
Limit risk exposure
Enthusiasm
Seven Stages of Development – Houses of
Worship
*As presented by APAH CEO, Nina Janopaul at the Enterprise
Faith Based Initiative Conference in June 2018

Thank you!
Carmen Romero, Vice President of Real Estate Development
cromero@apah.org
4318 N Carlin Springs Road
Arlington, VA 22203
703.276.7444 | apah.org

Nicole Wickliffe &
Bob Wulff
Student, Faculty
George Mason University
School of Business
Challenge C
Engaging
Houses of Worship

2020 Housing Challenge Presentation

1.23 acre site along Columbia Pike in Arlington, Virginia
Before:
Church chartered in 1908
Membership decline from 1,000+ in
the 1950s to >100 by 2009
Aging building with limited budget
After:
173 units of affordable housing
Church remains on the first floor in
3,000 sq. ft.
La Cocina, non-profit culinary job
training group, in 5,000 sq. ft. on first
floor

“Many of our nation’s churches can
no longer afford to maintain their
structures—6,000 to 10,000 churches
die each year in America—and that
number will likely grow.”
‘A win-win’: Using local church buildings to address
the affordable-housing crisis

Partnership:
Arlington Presbyterian Church – The Original Land Owner
Decline and New Mission
APAH: The Developer
Two Visions Dovetail: “For Whom Our Hearts Were Breaking” and Affordable
Housing
Complicated Negotiations: Church Decision Making

Lessons Learned:
Empty churches can be an important source
of land for affordable housing.
Older churches are well-located.
Learn and respect how faith-based
organizations make decisions.
Affordable housing is a most difficult asset class to finance.
Form follows finance.
Prepare for the NIMBY perspective.
Add a year to your pre-development timeline.
How can we make it easier for houses of worship, affordable housing
builders, and the County to encourage this source of land for housing?

2020 Housing Challenge Presentation

More Related Content

What's hot (20)

Similar to 2020 Housing Challenge Presentation (20)

More from Fairfax County (20)

Recently uploaded (20)

2020 Housing Challenge Presentation

Editor's Notes