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Module 1: Basic Concepts of
Road Safety
www.ctl.uniroma1.it
info@ctl.uniroma1.it
Road Safety
A.A. 2023-2024
Module 1
Dr. Stephen Kome
Mod. 1: Basic Concepts of Road Safety
• 1.1 – Crashes and indicators
• 1.2 – The Magnitude of the Problem
• 1.3 – Main factors affecting probability of
accidents and injuries
• 1.4 – The Pillars of road safety
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 2
1.1 – CRASHES AND
INDICATORS
Basic Concept of Road Safety
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 3
What is a road accident?
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 4
What is a road Crash?
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 5
➢ Road crashes, also known as traffic collisions or
motor vehicle accidents, are incidents that occur
on public roadways involving at least one
vehicle in motion.
➢ These crashes can result in property damage,
injuries, or fatalities.
➢ Road crashes can involve various types of
vehicles such as cars, trucks, motorcycles,
bicycles, and pedestrian
Random Events
2-6
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 6
Rare Events
Relative Proportion of Accident Events
HSM, 2010
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 7
What is Safety?
Subjective safety
• Perception
• Values vary among
observers
Objective safety
• Quantifiable
• Independent of the
observer
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Pagina 8
Changes in Objective and Subjective
Safety
HSM, 2010
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 9
What is an indicator?
14/12/2024 Slide 10
“An indicator is a variable, or a combination of variables,
selected to represent a certain wider issue or
characteristic of interest” (Gudmundsson et al.,2016)
Road accidents indicators
• Absolute indicators are measures of:
– Number of Crashes during the observation period
– Number of fatalities during the observation period
– Number of injuries during the observation period
• Relative indicators are measures of:
– Crash risk
– Crash severity
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 11
Absolute indicators
Example: road accidents, injuries and
fatalities in Italy in 2021
• In Italy, in 2021, 151.875 injury crashes
occurred, causing 2.875 fatalities and
204.728 injuries
• 8 fatalities every day - 1 fatality every 3 hours
• The estimated social cost is over 24
billions Euro, 1.6% of GDP (2013)
Let’s update these figures together!
Example: evolution in Italy, 2001-2016
In Italy from 2001 there has been a strong decrease of
the number of road fatalities (-53%) and injuries (-33%)
7096
3283
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Nr
Injuries
Nr
Fatalities
Road Fatalities Road Injuries
Example: comparing different time
periods in the day
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 15
Number of fatalities by hour of day in the EU, 2015
(CARE - 2017)
Relative indicators
How we compare the safety level e.g.
in different areas?
Accident Risk indicators
• Are used to make comparisons between
different elements of the network or between
different areas/regions
• Are obtained by dividing the frequency of
accidents (A), fatalities (F) and injuries (I) by
a measure of exposure to risk (E)
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 17
Measures of exposure to risk
• For networks (or areas):
– Population
– Vehicles
– Passengers * km
• For elements (i.e. road sections and
intersections) of the road network:
– Traffic flows
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 18
Types of Accident Risk Indicators
• Accidents Rate (AR = A / E)
• Injury Rate (IR = I / E)
• Fatality Rate (FR = F / E)
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 19
Accident Risk Indicators for
areas/regions
Relates the number of accidents A and the
number of Inhabitants, Vehicles and
Passengers * kms
• AR = A / Population
• AR = A / Vehicles
• AR = A /Passengers * kms
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 20
Accident Risk Indicators for Road
Sections
Relates the number of accidents A the length
L of the road section and the annual average
daily traffic flow, AADT:
AR = A / (L x AADT)
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 21
Accident Risk Indicators for Road
Intersections
Relates the number of road accidents A
divided by the total entering annual average
daily traffic flow AADT:
AR = A / AADT
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 22
Accident Severity indicators
• The Injury Index (I.I.) expresses the average
number of injuries (I) in a given period of time
every 100 accidents (A)
I.I. = (I / A) x100
• The Mortality Index (M.I.) expresses the
average number of fatalities (F) in a given
period of time every 100 accidents (A)
M.I. = (F / A) x100
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 23
1.2 – MAGNITUDE OF THE
PROBLEM
Basic Concept of Road Safety
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 24
World level
Summary
• World level
• European level
• National level
Mod. 1 Pagina 26
World level
Key messages
(WHO, 2023)
How serious is the problem?
1.19 millions road traffic deaths per year
99,167 road traffic deaths per month
3,306 road traffic deaths per day
138 road traffic deaths per hour
One road traffic death every 25 seconds
Leading causes of death in 2016 vs 2019
Mod. 1 Slide 30
(WHO, 2018)
(WHO, 2023)
10 Leading Causes of Death by Age Group,
United States─ 2020
Mod. 1 Slide 31
Data Source: National Vital Statistics System, National Center for Health Statistics, CDC., 2020
Evolution at world level1
Mod. 1 Slide 32
WHO estimated number of road traffic fatalities, 2000–2021
(WHO, 2023)
Evolution at world level2
Mod. 1 Slide 33
Number of motor vehicles and rate of road traffic death per 100,000 vehicles: 2000-2016
(WHO, 2018)
Number and rate of road traffic death per 100,000 population: 2000-2016
(WHO, 2018)
WHO: Fatalities per 100.000 inhabitants in 2016
Mod. 1 Slide 34
(WHO, 2018)
Evolution in WHO Regions1
Number of road traffic fatalities by WHO region 2016
(WHO, 2018)
Evolution in WHO Regions2
Number of road traffic fatalities by WHO region and country-income level, 2021
(WHO, 2023)
Mod. 1 Slide 36
Evolution in WHO Regions3
Road traffic fatality rate per 100 000 population by WHO region and country income level, 2021
(WHO, 2023)
Mod. 1 Slide 37
Evolution in WHO Regions4
Percentage change in estimated road fatalities, by WHO region, 2010–2021
(WHO, 2023)
Mod. 1 Slide 38
WHO: Population, fatalities, vehicle fleet, and
paved roads by country income status (World)
(WHO, 2023)
WHO: Trends in road fatalities in low, middle
and high income countries
(WHO, 2018)
Number of countries increasing or decreasing fatalities in 2013-2016
Proportion of road traffic deaths by age
range and country income status
(WHO - 2015)
Mod. 1 Slide 41
Fatalities by type of user
(WHO, 2023)
Africa level
Key Facts in Africa
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 44
Estimated road traffic fatalities per 100
pop, 2021
Mod. 1 Slide 45
Change in fatality rate by WHO region
(2010 t0 2021)
24/02/2021
Mod. 1 Slide 46
Change in road user death type by WHO
region (2010 t0 2021)
Mod. 1 Slide 47
(ETSC -2023)
African Countries with laws that meet best
practice
Mod. 1 Slide 48
National level
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 50
Magnitude (See WHO App)
Android
iOS
1.2 - MAIN FACTORS
AFFECTING PROBABILITY OF
CRASHES AND INJURIES
Basic Concept of Road Safety
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 51
Summary
• Some definitions
• Factors affecting exposure
• Factors affecting accident rate
• Factors affecting injury severity
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 52
Some definitions
• Exposure
– The volume of activity generating risk; the amount
of traffic and travel
• Probability of accident
– Accident rate (as an approximation) =
• Consequence/injury severity
– The extent of damage; the severity of personal
injuries; the number of fatalities
• Injury risk
– The probability of being injured in an accident
Number of accidents
Exposure
Understanding risk factors
• What is a risk factor?
– a variable or feature of the road transport system
that is associated with a higher chance to get
involved in a crash or a higher chance to get
injured in a road crash (SafetyCube, 2017)
• A measure of the strenght of the association
between exposure to a risk factor and an
adverse outcome is Relative Risk
Relative Risk
• Relative risk compares the probability of an
adverse outcome in an exposure group to its
probability in an unexposed group
• It can be expressed as the ratio of the
probability of the adverse outcome in the
exposure group to its probability in the
unexposed group
• It helps us in understanding if the exposure to
a risk factor increases, decreases or does not
affect the probability of e.g. dyeing
Relative Risk - Example
• We collect data and find that:
– 40% of drivers involved in an accident and not
fastening their seatbelt die after the accident
– 5% of drivers involved in an accident but fastening
their seatbelt die
• Relative risk = 0.40 / 0.05 = 8
• Drivers not using the seatbelt are 8 times
more likely to die in case of accident than
drivers using their seatbelt
Relative Risk - Exercise
Fatally
injured
Not
fatally
injured Total
Pedestrians hit by cars
traveling at 40 miles per hour 40 10 50
Pedestrians hit by cars
traveling at 20 miles per hour 5 45 50
Total 45 55 100
• A study found that the relative risk of a
pedestrian being killed by a car increases
dramatically with speed.
Exposed
Not Exposed
Relative Risk - Exercise
• Risk of Death for Pedestrians Hit by Cars
Traveling at 40 mph = 40 / (40+10) = 0.8
• (Risk of Death for Pedestrians Hit by Cars
Traveling at 20 mph) = 5 / (45+5) = 0.1
• Relative Risk = 0.8 / 0.1 = 8
The main factors affecting road safety
Exposure
Type/Mode Mixture
Amount
Accident rate
Injury severity
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 59
Exposure
Type/Mode Mixture
Amount
Accident rate
Injury severity
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 60
Percentage of variation in accidents counts by county and month in
Norway explained by various variables. Source: Fridstrøm et al 1993, 1995
8.1
5.2
4.8
0.3
1.5
7.2
6.1
66.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Random variation
Unexplained systematic
variation
Rules for accident reporting
Long term trend
Month
County
Weather and daylight
Traffic volume
Explanatory
factor
Percentage of explained variation
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 61
The amount of travel
• The unit of measurement is generally the
volume of traffic (number of vehicles using a
road unit time)
• Generally, it takes account of motor vehicles
(for pedestrians and cyclists, there are no
reliable estimates on the movement)
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 62
Mathematical function
• The relationship between accidents and traffic
volume is:
• where:
– N is the number of accidents
– Q is the volume of traffic
–  is a constant
– b is the elasticity (% change in N, if Q varies 1%)
b
Q
N 
=
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 63
Typical relationships between traffic volume and the expected number of
accidents
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25
Traffic volume (arbitrary values)
Expected
number
of
accidents
(arbitrary
values)
Property damage only =
Traffic 1.1
Injury accidents =
Traffic
0.9
Fatal accidents =
Traffic
0.7
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 64
Exposure
Type/Mode Mixture
Amount
Accident rate
Injury severity
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 65
Choosing mode of transport
Relative
rate
of
injury
(self
=
1)
Relative injury risk (Dk, G, UK, Nl, N, Sw)
Elvik, 2002-2008
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 66
Exposure
Type/Mode Mixture
Amount
Accident rate
Injury severity
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 67
The mix of road users
• Very often (especially in urban areas and at
intersections) different categories of road
users use the same area for travel
• The interaction determines danger especially
for vulnerable road users (e.g. pedestrians
and cyclists)
• The accident rates depend on the proportions
between the groups
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 68
An example
• For pedestrians and cyclists, we have (Brude
and Larsson, 1993):
• where:
– N1,2 is the number of accidents involving groups 1
and 2
– Qi is the volume of traffic of group i
–  is a scale constant
– b and c are coefficients to be estimated
c
b
Q
Q
N 2
1
2
,
1 

=
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 69
Numerical values
• where:
– MV is the volume of motorvehicles
– PED is the volume of pedestrians
– CYC is the volume of cyclists
65
,
0
52
,
0
acc
.
72
,
0
5
,
0
acc.
ped.
0000180
,
0
0000734
,
0
CYC
MV
N
PED
MV
N
cyc 

=


=
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 70
Exercise
• If PED increases from 500 to 1,000 and MV
increases from 5,000 to 10,000 (total traffic is
doubled) → what happen to the number of
pedestrian accidents
• If PED increases from 100 to 1,000, what
happens to the risk for pedestrian (number of
pedestrian accidents per pedestrian exposed)?
• If MV increases from 2,000 to 10,000, what
happens to the risk of a MV hitting a
pedestrian?
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 71
Comment
• The relationship between accidents and
exposure is, in this case, strongly non linear
• It shows that:
– each category of users is safer (i.e., the accident
rate decreases) if there are more users from the
same group → «Safety in numbers»
– The total number of accidents increases more
than proportionally with interacting traffic volumes
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 72
Examples
• If PED increases from 500 to 1,000 and MV
increases from 5,000 to 10,000 (total traffic is
doubled) → the number of pedestrian
accidents increases by a factor 2.33
• If PED increases from 100 to 1,000, the risk
for pedestrian (number of pedestrian accidents
per pedestrian exposed) drops by 50%
• If MV increases from 2,000 to 10,000, the risk
of a MV hitting a pedestrian is reduced by
more than 50%
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 73
Exposure
Type/Mode Mixture
Amount
Accident rate
Injury severity
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 74
The type of infrastructure
Area Road type DK FN UK N NL S USA
Rural Motorway 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Main 4.0 2.9 2.9 2.3 1.3 1.3 2.7
Collector 4.7 3.2 - 3.5 3.6 2.3 4.6
Access 5.7 6.1 5.1 5.5 7.2 1.3 8.7
Urban Main 11.0 7.9 7.2 5.2 - 2.1 5.7
Collector 9.1 6.8 - 6.5 18.3 4.0 5.6
Access 10.0 7.3 7.1 12.1 9.5 3.1 8.8
All All 4.6 3.7 4.4 4.0 - 2.2 4.6
Relative risk of injury accidents (Motorway = 1)
Elvik,1991-2008
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 75
Design features
• Many design features affect safety level:
– Cross section (e.g. number and width of lanes)
– Vertical and horizontal alignment
– Size and regulation of intersections
– Type of parking
– Road surface
– Pedestrian crossings
– ........
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 76
Width of the road
• The effect of road width depends on whether
you are in an urban or a non-urban (rural)
area:
– in rural area width plays in favor of safety (the
wider space allows for more safety at high speeds)
– in urban it is the opposite (the greater width makes
it difficult crossings the road)
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 77
Road Intersections
• The accident rate increases if ...
– ... an intersection has more legs
– ... a higher proportion of traffic enters the
intersection from the minor road
• Roundabouts reduce the severity of accidents
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 78
Curves
The accident rate depends on the radius and the number of
curves per km
Accident rate, based on Norwegian data
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 79
Effect of access point density on injury accident rate
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Access points per kilometre
Accident
rate
Access points density
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 80
The environmental conditions
Factor Value Relative
accident rate
Light Daylight 1.0
Dark - vehicles 1.0
Dark - pedestrians 2.1
Dark - cyclists 1.6
Surface Dry 1.0
Wet 1.3
Wet - snow 1.5
Snow or ice covered road 2.5
Relative risk of injury accidents in different
environmental conditions Elvik,1976-2009
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 81
Exposure
Type/Mode Mixture
Amount
Accident rate
Injury severity
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 82
The vehicle
• Many vehicle related factors affect the
accident rate:
– Braking capacity (eg ABS, Electronic Brake
Control)
– Stability (eg, tires, suspension, Electronic Stability
Control and Traction)
– Ergonomics (driver's position, position of
information and control devices)
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 83
Other factors
• Type of information (e.g. tire pressure,
warning about outside temperature)
• Advanced Driver Assistance Systems:
enhance the driving skills, intervene to take
control of the vehicle, monitor the physical
and psychological condition of the driver (e.g.
Collision Avoidance, Cruise Control, Vision
enhancement, Driver Monitoring, Lane
Control)
• Daytime running lights
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 84
Some considerations
• In the case of the vehicle, it is more difficult to
estimate the weight of each risk factor
• Effect of "risk compensation": It is
demonstrated that road users are prone to
adapt their behaviour to risk factors and road
safety measures to a greater or lesser extent
(e.g., I have the ABS -> I drive faster and / or
brake later)
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 85
Exposure
Type/Mode Mixture
Amount
Accident rate
Injury severity
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 86
Relationship between annual driving distance and accident rate in three
studies
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
0.0 5000.0 10000.0 15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 30000.0
Annual driving distance (km)
Accidents
per
million
kilometres
Middle-aged
Older (65+)
Middle-aged
Older (65+)
Middle-aged
Older (65+)
Hakamies-Blomqvist
Langford
Alvarez
Distance driven
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 87
Some considerations
• Risk for older drivers > middle-aged drivers
• Limitations of studies
– Limited samples and self-reported crash
involvement
• The low mileage bias
– Older drivers drive less distance annually
compared to younger drivers
– Most of their driving occurs on high-risk congested
streets
• Frialty bias
– Higher likelihood to be in crash database
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 88
Fatal Crash Involvement by Driver
Age
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 89
Age and gender of car drivers
Elvik,1996-2008
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 90
Some considerations
• The risk for young drivers and elderly is
higher than other age groups
• Up to the age of 30 years accident rate is
higher for men than women, the opposite
from the age of 30:
– women drive less than men
– women drive smaller cars (increases the risk of
injury)
– women drive more in towns and cities
– .... other?
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 91
Health conditions
Effects of medical conditions on accident rate
3.71
2.06 2.01 1.96
1.84
1.09
1.19 1.17
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Sleep apnoea Alzheimer's
disease
Severe mental
illness
Any drug
presumably
abused
Epilepsy Any visual
impairment
Any hearing
impairment
Any locomotor
disability
Relative
accident
rate
(unimpaired
drivers
=
1.0)
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 92
Alcohol Elvik,1985-2005
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 93
Some considerations
• In some studies seems to emerge a lower risk
to low concentrations of alcohol (not
confirmed)
• The ordinate scale is logarithmic: at
concentrations of 2 g/l the risk of accident
increases by a factor of 100!
• The effect is more severe on fatalities and
injuries
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 94
Alcohol & drug
Effects of acute impairments on accident rate
1 1.4
29
1.4
6.7
12
60
153
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
No drug Any single
drug
Combinations
of drugs
BAC 0.2-0.5
g/l
BAC 0.5-0.8
g/l
BAC 0.8-1.3
g/l
BAC > 1.3 g/l BAC > 0.8 g/l
and drugs
Relative
accident
rate
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 95
Speed
Severe damage
All accidents
Fatal
Elvik et al, 2004
Effect of the average speed (V0 = 80 km / h)
Change
accidents
Change average speed km / h
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 96
Exposure
Type/Mode Mixture
Amount
Accident rate
Injury severity
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 97
Infrastructure role
• The infrastructure does not affect always the
the consequences of a road accident
• The most important element is crash barrier
• Peculiar features of crash barriers are: shape,
size, material, anchor
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 98
Exposure
Type/Mode Mixture
Amount
Accident rate
Injury severity
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
Vehicles Road Users
Infrastructure
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 99
Relationship between typical mass of vehicle and probability of driver
(pedestrian, cyclist) injury in injury accidents
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000
Typical mass (kilograms)
Probability
of
getting
injured
Truck
Bus
Passenger car
Taxi
Station wagon
Van
Small motorbike
Moped
Large motorbike
Bicycle
Pedestrian
The type of vehicle
Effect of the type and mass of the vehicle
Norvegia
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 100
Risk of own injury, risk of injuring others and total risk of injury in two car
crashes as a function of mass of car
1,00
1,00
1,00
0,55
0,60
0,65
0,70
0,75
0,80
0,85
1,75
1,65
1,60
1,55
1,50
1,40
1,25
0,93
1,00
0,95
0,97
1,00
1,05
1,00
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
2,00
2,20
<850 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 >1500
Mass in kilograms
Relative
injury
risk
to
drivers.
Smallest
cars
=
1.00
Own
Others
Total
The mass
Effect of vehicle mass on themselves and on others
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 101
1.02 1.02 1.03
0.92
1.01 0.98
0.84
0.78
1.06
0.85
0.70
0.33
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Relative
injury
risk
(set
to
1.00
for
cars
without
EuroNCAP
score)
Number of stars (5 = maximum)
Relationshipbetween EuroNCAPstarsand injury risk (Kullgren et al 2010)
All injuries
Fatal and serious injuries
Fatal injuries
Vehicle crashworthiness
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 102
The pedestrian
Effect of impact speed on the probability of death
of pedestrian Pasanen, 1991
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 103
The pedestrian
Effect of impact speed on the probability of
death of pedestrian Rosen et al, 2011
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 104
Other protective measures
• The helmet reduces the risk of injury by 25%
• The protective suit 30% (helmet + suit = 50%)
• Seat belts reduce the risk of injury by 20-
30%, risk of death by 40-50%
• The air bag reduces the risk of death by
12/14% (with / without belt)
14/12/2024
Mod. 1 Slide 105

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2024 RS_1 - Basic Concepts_Updated F.pdf

  • 1. Module 1: Basic Concepts of Road Safety www.ctl.uniroma1.it info@ctl.uniroma1.it Road Safety A.A. 2023-2024 Module 1 Dr. Stephen Kome
  • 2. Mod. 1: Basic Concepts of Road Safety • 1.1 – Crashes and indicators • 1.2 – The Magnitude of the Problem • 1.3 – Main factors affecting probability of accidents and injuries • 1.4 – The Pillars of road safety 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 2
  • 3. 1.1 – CRASHES AND INDICATORS Basic Concept of Road Safety 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 3
  • 4. What is a road accident? 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 4
  • 5. What is a road Crash? 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 5 ➢ Road crashes, also known as traffic collisions or motor vehicle accidents, are incidents that occur on public roadways involving at least one vehicle in motion. ➢ These crashes can result in property damage, injuries, or fatalities. ➢ Road crashes can involve various types of vehicles such as cars, trucks, motorcycles, bicycles, and pedestrian
  • 7. Rare Events Relative Proportion of Accident Events HSM, 2010 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 7
  • 8. What is Safety? Subjective safety • Perception • Values vary among observers Objective safety • Quantifiable • Independent of the observer 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Pagina 8
  • 9. Changes in Objective and Subjective Safety HSM, 2010 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 9
  • 10. What is an indicator? 14/12/2024 Slide 10 “An indicator is a variable, or a combination of variables, selected to represent a certain wider issue or characteristic of interest” (Gudmundsson et al.,2016)
  • 11. Road accidents indicators • Absolute indicators are measures of: – Number of Crashes during the observation period – Number of fatalities during the observation period – Number of injuries during the observation period • Relative indicators are measures of: – Crash risk – Crash severity 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 11
  • 13. Example: road accidents, injuries and fatalities in Italy in 2021 • In Italy, in 2021, 151.875 injury crashes occurred, causing 2.875 fatalities and 204.728 injuries • 8 fatalities every day - 1 fatality every 3 hours • The estimated social cost is over 24 billions Euro, 1.6% of GDP (2013) Let’s update these figures together!
  • 14. Example: evolution in Italy, 2001-2016 In Italy from 2001 there has been a strong decrease of the number of road fatalities (-53%) and injuries (-33%) 7096 3283 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Nr Injuries Nr Fatalities Road Fatalities Road Injuries
  • 15. Example: comparing different time periods in the day 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 15 Number of fatalities by hour of day in the EU, 2015 (CARE - 2017)
  • 16. Relative indicators How we compare the safety level e.g. in different areas?
  • 17. Accident Risk indicators • Are used to make comparisons between different elements of the network or between different areas/regions • Are obtained by dividing the frequency of accidents (A), fatalities (F) and injuries (I) by a measure of exposure to risk (E) 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 17
  • 18. Measures of exposure to risk • For networks (or areas): – Population – Vehicles – Passengers * km • For elements (i.e. road sections and intersections) of the road network: – Traffic flows 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 18
  • 19. Types of Accident Risk Indicators • Accidents Rate (AR = A / E) • Injury Rate (IR = I / E) • Fatality Rate (FR = F / E) 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 19
  • 20. Accident Risk Indicators for areas/regions Relates the number of accidents A and the number of Inhabitants, Vehicles and Passengers * kms • AR = A / Population • AR = A / Vehicles • AR = A /Passengers * kms 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 20
  • 21. Accident Risk Indicators for Road Sections Relates the number of accidents A the length L of the road section and the annual average daily traffic flow, AADT: AR = A / (L x AADT) 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 21
  • 22. Accident Risk Indicators for Road Intersections Relates the number of road accidents A divided by the total entering annual average daily traffic flow AADT: AR = A / AADT 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 22
  • 23. Accident Severity indicators • The Injury Index (I.I.) expresses the average number of injuries (I) in a given period of time every 100 accidents (A) I.I. = (I / A) x100 • The Mortality Index (M.I.) expresses the average number of fatalities (F) in a given period of time every 100 accidents (A) M.I. = (F / A) x100 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 23
  • 24. 1.2 – MAGNITUDE OF THE PROBLEM Basic Concept of Road Safety 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 24
  • 26. Summary • World level • European level • National level Mod. 1 Pagina 26
  • 29. How serious is the problem? 1.19 millions road traffic deaths per year 99,167 road traffic deaths per month 3,306 road traffic deaths per day 138 road traffic deaths per hour One road traffic death every 25 seconds
  • 30. Leading causes of death in 2016 vs 2019 Mod. 1 Slide 30 (WHO, 2018) (WHO, 2023)
  • 31. 10 Leading Causes of Death by Age Group, United States─ 2020 Mod. 1 Slide 31 Data Source: National Vital Statistics System, National Center for Health Statistics, CDC., 2020
  • 32. Evolution at world level1 Mod. 1 Slide 32 WHO estimated number of road traffic fatalities, 2000–2021 (WHO, 2023)
  • 33. Evolution at world level2 Mod. 1 Slide 33 Number of motor vehicles and rate of road traffic death per 100,000 vehicles: 2000-2016 (WHO, 2018) Number and rate of road traffic death per 100,000 population: 2000-2016 (WHO, 2018)
  • 34. WHO: Fatalities per 100.000 inhabitants in 2016 Mod. 1 Slide 34 (WHO, 2018)
  • 35. Evolution in WHO Regions1 Number of road traffic fatalities by WHO region 2016 (WHO, 2018)
  • 36. Evolution in WHO Regions2 Number of road traffic fatalities by WHO region and country-income level, 2021 (WHO, 2023) Mod. 1 Slide 36
  • 37. Evolution in WHO Regions3 Road traffic fatality rate per 100 000 population by WHO region and country income level, 2021 (WHO, 2023) Mod. 1 Slide 37
  • 38. Evolution in WHO Regions4 Percentage change in estimated road fatalities, by WHO region, 2010–2021 (WHO, 2023) Mod. 1 Slide 38
  • 39. WHO: Population, fatalities, vehicle fleet, and paved roads by country income status (World) (WHO, 2023)
  • 40. WHO: Trends in road fatalities in low, middle and high income countries (WHO, 2018) Number of countries increasing or decreasing fatalities in 2013-2016
  • 41. Proportion of road traffic deaths by age range and country income status (WHO - 2015) Mod. 1 Slide 41
  • 42. Fatalities by type of user (WHO, 2023)
  • 44. Key Facts in Africa 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 44
  • 45. Estimated road traffic fatalities per 100 pop, 2021 Mod. 1 Slide 45
  • 46. Change in fatality rate by WHO region (2010 t0 2021) 24/02/2021 Mod. 1 Slide 46
  • 47. Change in road user death type by WHO region (2010 t0 2021) Mod. 1 Slide 47 (ETSC -2023)
  • 48. African Countries with laws that meet best practice Mod. 1 Slide 48
  • 50. 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 50 Magnitude (See WHO App) Android iOS
  • 51. 1.2 - MAIN FACTORS AFFECTING PROBABILITY OF CRASHES AND INJURIES Basic Concept of Road Safety 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 51
  • 52. Summary • Some definitions • Factors affecting exposure • Factors affecting accident rate • Factors affecting injury severity 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 52
  • 53. Some definitions • Exposure – The volume of activity generating risk; the amount of traffic and travel • Probability of accident – Accident rate (as an approximation) = • Consequence/injury severity – The extent of damage; the severity of personal injuries; the number of fatalities • Injury risk – The probability of being injured in an accident Number of accidents Exposure
  • 54. Understanding risk factors • What is a risk factor? – a variable or feature of the road transport system that is associated with a higher chance to get involved in a crash or a higher chance to get injured in a road crash (SafetyCube, 2017) • A measure of the strenght of the association between exposure to a risk factor and an adverse outcome is Relative Risk
  • 55. Relative Risk • Relative risk compares the probability of an adverse outcome in an exposure group to its probability in an unexposed group • It can be expressed as the ratio of the probability of the adverse outcome in the exposure group to its probability in the unexposed group • It helps us in understanding if the exposure to a risk factor increases, decreases or does not affect the probability of e.g. dyeing
  • 56. Relative Risk - Example • We collect data and find that: – 40% of drivers involved in an accident and not fastening their seatbelt die after the accident – 5% of drivers involved in an accident but fastening their seatbelt die • Relative risk = 0.40 / 0.05 = 8 • Drivers not using the seatbelt are 8 times more likely to die in case of accident than drivers using their seatbelt
  • 57. Relative Risk - Exercise Fatally injured Not fatally injured Total Pedestrians hit by cars traveling at 40 miles per hour 40 10 50 Pedestrians hit by cars traveling at 20 miles per hour 5 45 50 Total 45 55 100 • A study found that the relative risk of a pedestrian being killed by a car increases dramatically with speed. Exposed Not Exposed
  • 58. Relative Risk - Exercise • Risk of Death for Pedestrians Hit by Cars Traveling at 40 mph = 40 / (40+10) = 0.8 • (Risk of Death for Pedestrians Hit by Cars Traveling at 20 mph) = 5 / (45+5) = 0.1 • Relative Risk = 0.8 / 0.1 = 8
  • 59. The main factors affecting road safety Exposure Type/Mode Mixture Amount Accident rate Injury severity Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 59
  • 60. Exposure Type/Mode Mixture Amount Accident rate Injury severity Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 60
  • 61. Percentage of variation in accidents counts by county and month in Norway explained by various variables. Source: Fridstrøm et al 1993, 1995 8.1 5.2 4.8 0.3 1.5 7.2 6.1 66.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Random variation Unexplained systematic variation Rules for accident reporting Long term trend Month County Weather and daylight Traffic volume Explanatory factor Percentage of explained variation 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 61
  • 62. The amount of travel • The unit of measurement is generally the volume of traffic (number of vehicles using a road unit time) • Generally, it takes account of motor vehicles (for pedestrians and cyclists, there are no reliable estimates on the movement) 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 62
  • 63. Mathematical function • The relationship between accidents and traffic volume is: • where: – N is the number of accidents – Q is the volume of traffic –  is a constant – b is the elasticity (% change in N, if Q varies 1%) b Q N  = 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 63
  • 64. Typical relationships between traffic volume and the expected number of accidents 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 Traffic volume (arbitrary values) Expected number of accidents (arbitrary values) Property damage only = Traffic 1.1 Injury accidents = Traffic 0.9 Fatal accidents = Traffic 0.7 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 64
  • 65. Exposure Type/Mode Mixture Amount Accident rate Injury severity Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 65
  • 66. Choosing mode of transport Relative rate of injury (self = 1) Relative injury risk (Dk, G, UK, Nl, N, Sw) Elvik, 2002-2008 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 66
  • 67. Exposure Type/Mode Mixture Amount Accident rate Injury severity Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 67
  • 68. The mix of road users • Very often (especially in urban areas and at intersections) different categories of road users use the same area for travel • The interaction determines danger especially for vulnerable road users (e.g. pedestrians and cyclists) • The accident rates depend on the proportions between the groups 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 68
  • 69. An example • For pedestrians and cyclists, we have (Brude and Larsson, 1993): • where: – N1,2 is the number of accidents involving groups 1 and 2 – Qi is the volume of traffic of group i –  is a scale constant – b and c are coefficients to be estimated c b Q Q N 2 1 2 , 1   = 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 69
  • 70. Numerical values • where: – MV is the volume of motorvehicles – PED is the volume of pedestrians – CYC is the volume of cyclists 65 , 0 52 , 0 acc . 72 , 0 5 , 0 acc. ped. 0000180 , 0 0000734 , 0 CYC MV N PED MV N cyc   =   = 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 70
  • 71. Exercise • If PED increases from 500 to 1,000 and MV increases from 5,000 to 10,000 (total traffic is doubled) → what happen to the number of pedestrian accidents • If PED increases from 100 to 1,000, what happens to the risk for pedestrian (number of pedestrian accidents per pedestrian exposed)? • If MV increases from 2,000 to 10,000, what happens to the risk of a MV hitting a pedestrian? 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 71
  • 72. Comment • The relationship between accidents and exposure is, in this case, strongly non linear • It shows that: – each category of users is safer (i.e., the accident rate decreases) if there are more users from the same group → «Safety in numbers» – The total number of accidents increases more than proportionally with interacting traffic volumes 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 72
  • 73. Examples • If PED increases from 500 to 1,000 and MV increases from 5,000 to 10,000 (total traffic is doubled) → the number of pedestrian accidents increases by a factor 2.33 • If PED increases from 100 to 1,000, the risk for pedestrian (number of pedestrian accidents per pedestrian exposed) drops by 50% • If MV increases from 2,000 to 10,000, the risk of a MV hitting a pedestrian is reduced by more than 50% 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 73
  • 74. Exposure Type/Mode Mixture Amount Accident rate Injury severity Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 74
  • 75. The type of infrastructure Area Road type DK FN UK N NL S USA Rural Motorway 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Main 4.0 2.9 2.9 2.3 1.3 1.3 2.7 Collector 4.7 3.2 - 3.5 3.6 2.3 4.6 Access 5.7 6.1 5.1 5.5 7.2 1.3 8.7 Urban Main 11.0 7.9 7.2 5.2 - 2.1 5.7 Collector 9.1 6.8 - 6.5 18.3 4.0 5.6 Access 10.0 7.3 7.1 12.1 9.5 3.1 8.8 All All 4.6 3.7 4.4 4.0 - 2.2 4.6 Relative risk of injury accidents (Motorway = 1) Elvik,1991-2008 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 75
  • 76. Design features • Many design features affect safety level: – Cross section (e.g. number and width of lanes) – Vertical and horizontal alignment – Size and regulation of intersections – Type of parking – Road surface – Pedestrian crossings – ........ 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 76
  • 77. Width of the road • The effect of road width depends on whether you are in an urban or a non-urban (rural) area: – in rural area width plays in favor of safety (the wider space allows for more safety at high speeds) – in urban it is the opposite (the greater width makes it difficult crossings the road) 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 77
  • 78. Road Intersections • The accident rate increases if ... – ... an intersection has more legs – ... a higher proportion of traffic enters the intersection from the minor road • Roundabouts reduce the severity of accidents 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 78
  • 79. Curves The accident rate depends on the radius and the number of curves per km Accident rate, based on Norwegian data 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 79
  • 80. Effect of access point density on injury accident rate 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Access points per kilometre Accident rate Access points density 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 80
  • 81. The environmental conditions Factor Value Relative accident rate Light Daylight 1.0 Dark - vehicles 1.0 Dark - pedestrians 2.1 Dark - cyclists 1.6 Surface Dry 1.0 Wet 1.3 Wet - snow 1.5 Snow or ice covered road 2.5 Relative risk of injury accidents in different environmental conditions Elvik,1976-2009 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 81
  • 82. Exposure Type/Mode Mixture Amount Accident rate Injury severity Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 82
  • 83. The vehicle • Many vehicle related factors affect the accident rate: – Braking capacity (eg ABS, Electronic Brake Control) – Stability (eg, tires, suspension, Electronic Stability Control and Traction) – Ergonomics (driver's position, position of information and control devices) 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 83
  • 84. Other factors • Type of information (e.g. tire pressure, warning about outside temperature) • Advanced Driver Assistance Systems: enhance the driving skills, intervene to take control of the vehicle, monitor the physical and psychological condition of the driver (e.g. Collision Avoidance, Cruise Control, Vision enhancement, Driver Monitoring, Lane Control) • Daytime running lights 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 84
  • 85. Some considerations • In the case of the vehicle, it is more difficult to estimate the weight of each risk factor • Effect of "risk compensation": It is demonstrated that road users are prone to adapt their behaviour to risk factors and road safety measures to a greater or lesser extent (e.g., I have the ABS -> I drive faster and / or brake later) 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 85
  • 86. Exposure Type/Mode Mixture Amount Accident rate Injury severity Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 86
  • 87. Relationship between annual driving distance and accident rate in three studies 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 0.0 5000.0 10000.0 15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 30000.0 Annual driving distance (km) Accidents per million kilometres Middle-aged Older (65+) Middle-aged Older (65+) Middle-aged Older (65+) Hakamies-Blomqvist Langford Alvarez Distance driven 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 87
  • 88. Some considerations • Risk for older drivers > middle-aged drivers • Limitations of studies – Limited samples and self-reported crash involvement • The low mileage bias – Older drivers drive less distance annually compared to younger drivers – Most of their driving occurs on high-risk congested streets • Frialty bias – Higher likelihood to be in crash database 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 88
  • 89. Fatal Crash Involvement by Driver Age 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 89
  • 90. Age and gender of car drivers Elvik,1996-2008 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 90
  • 91. Some considerations • The risk for young drivers and elderly is higher than other age groups • Up to the age of 30 years accident rate is higher for men than women, the opposite from the age of 30: – women drive less than men – women drive smaller cars (increases the risk of injury) – women drive more in towns and cities – .... other? 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 91
  • 92. Health conditions Effects of medical conditions on accident rate 3.71 2.06 2.01 1.96 1.84 1.09 1.19 1.17 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 Sleep apnoea Alzheimer's disease Severe mental illness Any drug presumably abused Epilepsy Any visual impairment Any hearing impairment Any locomotor disability Relative accident rate (unimpaired drivers = 1.0) 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 92
  • 94. Some considerations • In some studies seems to emerge a lower risk to low concentrations of alcohol (not confirmed) • The ordinate scale is logarithmic: at concentrations of 2 g/l the risk of accident increases by a factor of 100! • The effect is more severe on fatalities and injuries 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 94
  • 95. Alcohol & drug Effects of acute impairments on accident rate 1 1.4 29 1.4 6.7 12 60 153 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 No drug Any single drug Combinations of drugs BAC 0.2-0.5 g/l BAC 0.5-0.8 g/l BAC 0.8-1.3 g/l BAC > 1.3 g/l BAC > 0.8 g/l and drugs Relative accident rate 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 95
  • 96. Speed Severe damage All accidents Fatal Elvik et al, 2004 Effect of the average speed (V0 = 80 km / h) Change accidents Change average speed km / h 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 96
  • 97. Exposure Type/Mode Mixture Amount Accident rate Injury severity Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 97
  • 98. Infrastructure role • The infrastructure does not affect always the the consequences of a road accident • The most important element is crash barrier • Peculiar features of crash barriers are: shape, size, material, anchor 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 98
  • 99. Exposure Type/Mode Mixture Amount Accident rate Injury severity Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure Vehicles Road Users Infrastructure 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 99
  • 100. Relationship between typical mass of vehicle and probability of driver (pedestrian, cyclist) injury in injury accidents 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 Typical mass (kilograms) Probability of getting injured Truck Bus Passenger car Taxi Station wagon Van Small motorbike Moped Large motorbike Bicycle Pedestrian The type of vehicle Effect of the type and mass of the vehicle Norvegia 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 100
  • 101. Risk of own injury, risk of injuring others and total risk of injury in two car crashes as a function of mass of car 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,55 0,60 0,65 0,70 0,75 0,80 0,85 1,75 1,65 1,60 1,55 1,50 1,40 1,25 0,93 1,00 0,95 0,97 1,00 1,05 1,00 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 2,00 2,20 <850 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 >1500 Mass in kilograms Relative injury risk to drivers. Smallest cars = 1.00 Own Others Total The mass Effect of vehicle mass on themselves and on others 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 101
  • 102. 1.02 1.02 1.03 0.92 1.01 0.98 0.84 0.78 1.06 0.85 0.70 0.33 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Relative injury risk (set to 1.00 for cars without EuroNCAP score) Number of stars (5 = maximum) Relationshipbetween EuroNCAPstarsand injury risk (Kullgren et al 2010) All injuries Fatal and serious injuries Fatal injuries Vehicle crashworthiness 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 102
  • 103. The pedestrian Effect of impact speed on the probability of death of pedestrian Pasanen, 1991 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 103
  • 104. The pedestrian Effect of impact speed on the probability of death of pedestrian Rosen et al, 2011 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 104
  • 105. Other protective measures • The helmet reduces the risk of injury by 25% • The protective suit 30% (helmet + suit = 50%) • Seat belts reduce the risk of injury by 20- 30%, risk of death by 40-50% • The air bag reduces the risk of death by 12/14% (with / without belt) 14/12/2024 Mod. 1 Slide 105