2030 vision
- 1. Vision 2030 for Blackburn with Darwen Policy Council 3 December 2009
- 2. “a place is more than a mere slogan or campaign; rather, it represents the totality of thoughts, feelings, associations and expectations that come to mind”
- 3. Vision 2030 Programme September October November December January February Activity 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 Steering Group Design Launch Website Survey of Residents North West Survey Focus Group Children and Young People Neighbourhood Board Workshops Community and Voluntary Groups Business LSP & Future Cities Game LSP Thematic Groups Vision Strategy Development Vision 2030 Conference
- 4. Economic More than £150 million of investment since 2002 Wages grew faster than North West and UK - but remain 2% lower than North West and 8% than UK Key businesses leading the way in specialist technologies with a range and depth of manufacturing specialisms Major public and private sector capital investment underway in the Town Centres, Building Schools and College lowest employment rate in Pennine Lancashire and a significant shortfall of both entry level and higher level skills Self employment rates 7.3%,North West - 8.1% UK - 9.3% 6,000 manufacturing jobs lost - 1995-2006, and 14,000 jobs manufacturing jobs vulnerable to recession Transport connectivity is a significant barrier to economic growth and prosperity
- 5. Environmental Urban cores surrounded by high density terraced housing, parts in poor condition Significant rural fringes with villages supporting basic services such as a primary school and shop - landscape shaped by farming and small-scale mining and quarrying property prices have increased faster than the regional and national averages but remain 25% lower than Lancashire significant concentrations of low value properties and a few higher end executive houses £48 million investment in Housing Market Renewal with more than 500 refurbishments and 600 unfit homes cleared waste per head is reducing against national trends - from 499.7 kg per head in 2004/05 to 475.9 kg per head in 2006/07 net population outflow of people - low-level job opportunities and a “quality of place” does not attract new people or retain existing
- 6. Social Significant poverty and deprivation - 17th most deprived Borough in the country – half children live in areas amongst the 10% most deprived in the country youngest population in the North West with one in three residents aged 0–19 Culturally diverse population, with more than one in five residents coming from Asian Heritage ethnic groups High levels of separation between communities There has been a 5% reduction in crime, but crime per resident more than 10% higher than national rates 58% of our young people are now achieving 5 or more GCSEs grades A*-C, compared with 36% in 1999 life expectancy at birth for men was 74.2 years (76.6 England) and 79.2 for women years
- 7. Cultural refresh jointly funded - £6 million investment to provide free sport and leisure activities for all Blackburn Museum and Art Gallery - nationally important collections - Lewis collection Sustainable future for Turton Tower Whalley Range - regional draw for textiles/food Blackburn Rovers Sports Arena officially opened in January 2008 Libraries - valued and well used - 1 million annual visits Celebrate – a month festival of music, arts, food sports and fashion
- 8. Present - Local Trends Unemployment –JSA claimants increased January to June 2009 from 3,573 to 4,211 (+18%) - rate of increase has since slowed short term claimants increased from 2,885 to 3,050 (+6%) core working age group (25-49) claimants increased from 1,895 to 2,235 (+18%). Redundancies –declared redundancies running at 130 per month in 2009 compared with an average of 73 per month in 2008. Job Losses –estimated 1,300 job losses over the next year with Manufacturing (-860), Hotel and Catering (-157) and Financial Intermediation (-150) sectors most affected. Businesses – estimated 220 fewer businesses (-4%) in April 2009 compared with April 2008. Housing Market – average house prices peaked at £98,000 in September 2007 and fell by 13% to £85,290. Sales volumes - fallen from 350 in September 2006 to 125 sales in June 2009. Crime – no evidence of changes to expected trends Health – no evidence of specific local impacts – general research indicates there may be long term impacts on mortality rates and short term impacts on healthy eating and mental health with a positive impact on smoking cessation.
- 9. Population Projections to 2030 Blackburn with Darwen Population Projections 2009-2030 Working Age and Older People •Overall increase of 20,000 (13%) 120.0 from 143,600 to 162,200 100.0 •15% more aged 5-14 •Almost 50% more aged 65+ 80.0 85+ •Almost 75% more aged 85+ 60.0 65-84 50-64 (1,700 people) 40.0 20-49 20.0 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 Blackburn with Darwen Population Projections 2009-2030 Young People 60.0 50.0 40.0 15-19 30.0 5-14 0-4 20.0 10.0 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: ONS
- 10. Economic Projections GDP decline of 4.3% in 2009, modest growth for 2010 (+1.2%) Little economic growth for next 5-7 years and almost no employment growth Large variation in housing market forecasts; + or – 11% in 2010!!
- 11. Key Drivers of Global Change Population explosion Climate change Looming energy crisis Expanding globalisation Accelerating, exponential technology development Disease prevention and longevity
- 12. Structured Research Survey of Residents 1,231 10 minute interviews with randomly selected residents Quotas achieved for gender, ward and ethnic group Data weighted by age and ward population to make it representative borough residents Focus Groups 20 focus groups by neighbourhood and age group Total of 100 people involved, low attendance for 16-24 year olds
- 13. Aspiration for the Place In twenty years time..... I would like to see some of the most famous buildings and sculpture in the North West in Blackburn with Darwen the schools in Blackburn with Darwen will be some of the best in the North West. I would like Blackburn with Darwen to be pretty much the same as it is now I would like to see fast public transport that allows me to easily travel from Blackburn and Darwen to other neighbouring towns. shopping in the borough will rival that of Preston or Bolton there should be a University in the borough compared to neighbouring towns, Blackburn with Darwen borough will be a place to get some of the best jobs 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Strongly agree Generally agree Generally disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know Not applicable Source: Citizen’s Panel weighted
- 14. Aspiration for Residents In twenty years time..... I would like to use the internet for shopping and to talk to friends rather than travelling into town to shop or socialise I would like to see the people of Blackburn with Darwen have a new identity, developed from the cultures of all the people who live in the borough the borough will be a friendly place where people from different backgrounds get on I would be proud to say that I come from Blackburn with Darwen I would hope to see my family still living in Blackburn with Darwen, and to also be here for generations to come. I would like to have moved out of the borough and be living elsewhere I want to be working or enjoying my retirement in Blackburn with Darwen 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Strongly agree Generally agree Generally disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know Not applicable Source: Citizen’s Panel weighted
- 15. Future Aspiration of Residents Fast public transport to neighbouring towns 86% Proud to live here 71% Friendly and people get on 70% A new identity from the culture of people that live here 70% Shopping on a par with Bolton/Preston 69% Want famous buildings and sculptures 68% Need a University 64% Want to be working or retired here 62% Best schools in the North West 59% See my family living here 57% A place for the best jobs 36% Want to have moved out 33% Use internet rather than shop and meet people 31% Much the same as now 19% Source: Citizen’s Panel weighted
- 16. Future Priorities Crime and disorder Economy and jobs Communities getting on together Schools and further education Improving transport (roads and public transport) Leisure and things to do Health and well-being The way the borough looks Environment, greens spaces and woodland Housing and new homes Other 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Percentage Source: Citizen’s Panel weighted
- 17. Blackburn with Darwen 2030 Number Percentage Close Community / family/ more cohesive 152 12% Can't think 152 12% Better 147 12% Clean / tidy 143 12% Less crime / feeling safer 91 7% More prosperous /thriving / busy 78 6% Livelier / cosmopolitan 76 6% Friendly 74 6% More work/hub for industry/economy 65 5% Improving / ahead of the times/ modern/ inspirational 61 5% Source: Citizen’s Panel weighted
- 18. 2030 Aspiration Cohesion – Connected Communities, Towns (Blackburn with Darwen) Stop racist attitudes Transport – Prices, Road Systems, Improved Buses/Trains Economy/Regeneration – Job opportunities increased, Renewal of old buildings, More quality shopping Education – University town, High standards in schools, Better education opportunities for young people Leisure –More facilities for young people, More facilities for older people, More nightlife Environment –Cleaner Streets, Safer town centre, Using solar energy People – Sense of hope, Sense of pride about where people live, No drugs Source: Focus Groups
- 19. From the Outside External Perception of Blackburn with Darwen 427 Responses POSITIVE 29% NEGATIVE 36% INDIFFERENT 20% DON’T KNOW 15% Source: Surrounding Boroughs Citizen’s Panel weighted
- 20. Draft Vision Outline •safe neighbourhoods and town centres where communities and cultures feel connected and feel proud of the developing identity of Blackburn with Darwen •prosperous towns where residents aspire to achieve their dreams for education, learning and employment, with thriving businesses creating innovative products for local and world markets •clean and tidy neighbourhoods that make the best use of the worlds resources, with really good parks, sporting and public facilities that are used by all the community •healthy places for communities, where residents of all ages live safe and healthy lives at home and outdoors •the completion of major projects (to be identified through the Future Cities Game) which will transform the national and international reputation of Blackburn with Darwen, attracting investment and visitors and developing strong international trade and cultural links •local people involved in decisions about their neighbourhood
- 21. Website: www.blackburn.gov.uk/vision2030 RESEARCH ENGAGEMENT •Citizens Panel •Neighbourhoods Borough Council •Focus Groups •CVS Policy Council •Baselines •Business Vision Draft 2030 Vision 2030 Development Vision 2030 Conf. January 2010 LSP LSP Thematic Forums Future Cities Game 8 Workshops January workshop Blackburn with Darwen Strategic Partnership