3.2.2 explanatroy case on simulation
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This document presents an explanatory case on simulation. It describes a bakery that stocks cakes with a known daily demand pattern and probabilities. A sequence of random numbers is used to simulate the demand over 10 days. The daily demands are determined by matching the random numbers to ranges based on the demand probabilities. The average demand over the 10 days is then calculated. Students are instructed to solve this simulation case as an exercise to understand how to apply simulation to model uncertain outcomes.
3.2.2 explanatroy case on simulation
- 1. www.sanjivanimba.org.in Unit No.3. DECISION SCIENCE Presented By: Dr. V. M. Tidake Ph. D (Financial Management), MBA(FM), MBA(HRM) BE(Chem) Dean, EDP & Associate Professor MBA 1 Sanjivani College of Engineering, Kopargaon Department of MBA www.sanjivanimba.org.in
- 2. www.sanjivanimba.org.in 302-DECISION SCIENCE Unit No.3 Marko Chain & Simulation 3.2.2 Explanatory Case on Simulation Presented By: Dr. V. M. Tidake Ph. D (Financial Management), MBA(FM), MBA(HRM) BE(Chem) Dean EDP & Associate Professor MBA 2 Sanjivani College of Engineering, Kopargaon Department of MBA www.sanjivanimba.org.in
- 3. www.sanjivanimba.org.in MARKOV CHAIN & SIMULATION At the End of the Session Student will be able to understand- A. Explanatory Case on Simulation
- 4. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION A bakery keeps stock of a popular brand of cakes. Previous experience shows the daily demand pattern for the cakes with associated probabilities as given below: Use the following sequence of random numbers to simulate the demand for the next 10 days. Also find the average demand for the day. Daily Demand (Units) 0 10 20 30 40 50 Probability 0.01 0.20 0.15 0.50 0.12 0.02
- 5. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION Step 1: Objective: To find Demand for next Period Step 2: Cumulative Probability: Daily Demand (Units) 00 10 20 30 40 50 Probability 0.01 0.20 0.15 0.50 0.12 0.02 Cumulative Probability 0.01 0.21 0.36 0.86 0.98 1.00
- 6. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION Step 3: Find Random Number Interval: Daily Demand (Input Variable) Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval 00 0.01 0.01 00-00 10 0.20 0.21 01-20 20 0.15 0.36 21-35 30 0.50 0.86 36-85 40 0.12 0.98 86-97 50 0.02 1.00 98-99
- 7. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION Step 4: Simulate the Demand for Next 10 Days: Day Random No. Random No. Interval Daily Demand 1 25 21-35 20 2 39 36-85 30 3 65 36-85 30 4 76 36-85 30 5 12 01-20 10 6 05 01-20 10 7 73 36-85 30 8 89 86-97 40 9 19 01-20 10 10 49 36-85 30
- 8. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION Step 5: Average Demand for Next 10 Days: Average Demand = 20+30+30+30+10+10+30+40+10+30 10 Average Demand = 24 Units/Day
- 9. www.sanjivanimba.org.in EXERCISE Solve the Explanatory Case on Simulation as a classroom exercise.
- 10. www.sanjivanimba.org.in For More Details Contact Dr. V M Tidake tidkevishal@gmail.com tidkevishalmba@sanjivani.org.in