4 demographic transition model
- 1. Demographic Transition Model Population increase= Natural increase + rate of net migration These changes are analyze in a Demographic Transition Model
- 2. There are 4 stagesin the model • The Demographic Transition Model attempts to show how population changes as a country develops in terms or BR, DR, & pop growth • The model is divided into four stages. • The Demographic Transition Model does not take into account migration.
- 4. The Four Stages Stage 1 • Birth rate is high • Death rate is high • Low natural increase - low total population Factors • Children provide security & Labor • Religious beliefs encourages large families • poor or inadequate medical care & sanitation Examples • Tribal societies in remote areas
- 5. Stage 1: Pyramid Structure •Due to high birth rates, the pyramid shape would have a wide base; •Due to high death rates, the pyramid would be very short in height; concave shape indicates low life expectancy.
- 6. The Four Stages Stage 2 • Birth rate is high – • death rate is falling – • high natural increase (population growth) Factors • Birth rates high because of cultural factors • Advances in medical care and sanitation Examples • Niger, Afghanistan
- 7. Stage 2 : Pyramid Structure • As death rates fall, the population explosion begins; • The height of the pyramid grows to reflect the prevention of more deaths; shape becomes less concave as life expectancy increases; • The width of the base remains large due to the ongoing high birth rates
- 8. The Four Stages Stage 3 • Falling birth rate • Low death rate • High natural increase (population growth) • The “gap” closes, population increase slows down Factors • Realization-large families are unnecessary • Family planning becomes available • Parents favor material things, not large families, • Woman become more involved in the workforce Example • Malaysia, Mexico
- 9. Stage 3: Pyramid Structure • As birth rates begin to be addressed, the base begins to stabilize and eventually narrow; • Death rates are low and stabilized, meaning that the pyramid continues to grow higher.
- 10. The Four Stages Stage 4 • Birth rate is low • Death rate is low • low natural increase - high total population • Small “gap” like in stage 1 (Population may be declining) Example • USA, France
- 11. Stage 4: Pyramid Structure • Birth rates and death rates are low; as fertility continues to decline, an AGING SOCIETY emerges. • Pyramid seems to “invert”
- 12. MEDC vs. LEDC Note the quick transition to Phase 3 from the explosion of Phase 2 Note the longer time period as LEDC’s are “trapped” in Phase 2
- 13. Criticism of DTM • The model is an over-generalization of the industrialized European experience • Industrialization is difficult to achieve for LEDC’s in a trading system that protects the industries of MEDC’s; • Model assumes all countries proceed from stage 1-4; • It ignores variables and exceptions (ie. War, political turmoil) • The model assumes that reductions in fertility are a function of increased wealth and industrialization– • Other factors such as the status of women and other social development are ignored.