A Data-Centric Perspective of the Recent Crypto-Bull Run
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This document provides a comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency bull markets, highlighting key trends and indicators, particularly focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum. It outlines historical bull markets, driving forces behind recent market movements, and the emergence of new sectors such as DeFi and NFTs. Additionally, it discusses institutional adoption and changes in market dynamics compared to previous cycles.
A Data-Centric Perspective of the Recent Crypto-Bull Run
- 1. A Data-Centric Perspective of the Crypto Bull Market
- 2. Agenda ❖ Overview of Crypto Bull Markets ❖ Key Bitcoin Indicators ❖ Ethereum & Smart Contract Platforms ❖ Emerging Sectors 2
- 3. A quick update about ITB…
- 4. 4 4 Thodex
- 7. Q1 Overview & Q2 Roadmap Q1 ▸ ITB Pro subscribers doubled ▸ 20 new partners ▸ Growth in quant services Q2 ▸ Ownership indicators v2 ▸ Social analytics v2 ▸ NFT Insights ▸ More DeFi protocol support
- 9. 9 Previous Bull Markets ▸ 2011 - Bitcoin’s first ▹ Price: $0.01 to $30 to $2 ▸ 2013 - Bitcoin ‘double bubble’, ▹ Price: $2 to $270 to $65 to $1,200 ▹ Emergence of altcoins (Litecoin, Ripple, Peercoin) ▸ 2017 - Bitcoin $20k & ICO Bubble ▹ Price: $265 to $20,000 ▹ Creation of ERC-20, ICO speculation, altcoins > 70% share Sources: BraveNewCoin, CoinMarketCap
- 10. Crypto Price-Innovation Cycle Source: a16z ▸ Price → attention → build new ideas → price
- 11. 2021 Bull Market Sources: CoinMarketCap, Google Trends ▸ $100B to $2T+ ▸ Broader adoption ▸ Emergence of dapps
- 13. 13 13 On-Chain: Bitcoin Cycles ▸ Record holders of 1Y+ ▸ Cycle restarts ▸ Short-term interest renews
- 14. Bitcoin 2021 Bull Market Driving Forces 1. Broader Adoption 2. Bitcoin as Digital Gold 3. Institutional Dominance 14
- 15. 15 15 Macro Perspective - Covid Recession ▸ US dollar supply reaches all-time highs ▸ Has not led to inflation yet Source: Federal Reserve Bank
- 16. 16 16 Macro Perspective ▸ Debt is worryingly high ▸ USD drops to lows ▸ Increased demand to hedge ▸ Increased speculative activity ▸ Digitization Acceleration Source: Financial Times
- 17. 17 17 Broader Bitcoin Adoption ▸ Number of holders* hits new highs ▸ Bull market momentum attracting new holders
- 18. 18 18 Bitcoin as Digital Gold ▸ Long-term investing and value retention ▸ Hodlers’ unaffected by short-term volatility
- 19. 19 19 Institutional Adoption ▸ Volume in $100k transactions surpasses $100b/day ▸ Avg transaction size > $300k vs ~ $100k in Dec ’17
- 21. 21 21 Derivatives Growth ▸ Options open interest 10x ▸ Perpetual swaps 8x Sources: TheBlock, Bybt
- 23. Smart Contract Platforms Driving Forces 1. Adoption & Usage 2. Store of Value Potential 3. Growing Ecosystems 23
- 24. 24 24 Ethereum Adoption & Usage ▸ Growing and steady use of Ethereum (despite high fees) ▸ Decreasing correlation between price and DAAs
- 25. 25 25 Ethereum Adoption & Usage
- 26. 26 26 Store of Value Potential ▸ Long-term investing and value retention ▸ Most credibly-neutral asset within its ecosystem ▸ Decreasing supply with EIP 1559
- 27. 27 27 Ethereum Adoption & Usage
- 28. 28 28 Growing Ecosystems ▸ Launches in 2019 and 2020 ▸ Bridges and forks ▸ Lower fees, higher throughput ▸ Early adoption of dapps
- 31. Emerging Sectors
- 32. 32 32 Defining Asset Classes Sources: David Hoffman, Placeholder Ventures
- 33. Leading Sectors ▸ Stablecoins ▸ Oracles ▸ Decentralized Finance (DeFi) ▸ Non-fungible tokens (NFTs)/digital art ▸ Decentralized storage ▸ Gaming 33
- 34. 34 34 Decentralization’s Growing Proposition Sources: Google Trends, Twitter
- 35. 35 35 DeFi’s Growth Sources: Dune Analytics, DeFiPulse, DeFi Llama ▸ Over 2M addresses ▸ TVL 60x in Ethereum ▸ Growth in BSC, Solana, Cosmos ▸ TVL over $100 billion
- 36. 36 36 NFTs Go Viral Sources: TheBlock, DappRadar, CryptoSlam ▸ Artists, athletes, celebrities ▸ Beeple’s $69 million ▸ Dapper Labs ▸ Nifty Gateway ▸ OpenSea
- 37. Differences vs 2017 ▸ Products that actually work ▸ Broader use-cases ▸ Updated ‘tokenomics’ ▸ Institutional adoption 37
- 38. What Comes Next… ▸ Coinbase IPO ▸ Bitcoin ETF (?) ▸ Ethereum layer 2 & EIP 1559 ▸ Multi-chain ▸ Bubble and restart 38
- 39. 39 39
- 40. INTRODUCING CONTACT INFORMATION Lucas Outumuro Senior Analyst Twitter: @LucasOutumuro Email: loutumuro@intotheblock.io Thank you! Do you have any Questions/Feedback?