A study on understanding the concept of Demonitisation

Research paper on
Understanding the concept of demonetization
Study carried out with MBA students as respondents
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A study on understanding the concept of demonetization: study carried out
with MBA students as respondents.
Abstract:
The Government of India announced that the Rs 500 and Rs. 1000 denominated
currency notes will cease to be legal tender. The move was targeted towards tackling black
money, corruption and terrorism. After initial euphoria, questions began to emerge, this
study highlights on the opinion and perception of respondents towards the demonetisation
issue faced by them, it tries to bring out the insight of understanding and measuring the
aftermath of demonetisation it is imperative to evaluate the short run and medium-term
impacts that such a shock is expected to have on the economy. Demonetization of 86% of
floating currency in the market meant a huge transformation in the way businesses are being
conducted in India. Push for 100% cashless transactions meant that age-old customs had to
be destroyed, and new ways required to be learnt in order to conduct any type of business in
the country. The original assumptions underlying the decision remain unclear, but it seems to
be causing considerable harm. Although popular right now, demonetisation may not end up
being a good bargain
Keywords: Demonetisation, Black money, shadow economy, underground economy,
remonetise, digitisation, counterfeit currency
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Literature review
On November 8, the government announced its decision to discontinue the legal
tender status of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes. The original objectives were stated as: eliminating
fake currency; inflicting losses on those with black money; and disrupting terror and criminal
activities. Later, new objectives were tacked on: enabling growth in bank credit, turning India
into a cashless economy. India witnessed a financial coup, the scale of which was
unparalleled in the entire human history. Demonetization of 86% of floating currency in the
market meant a huge transformation in the way businesses are being conducted in India. Push
for 100% cashless transactions meant that age-old customs had to be destroyed, and new
ways required to be learnt in order to conduct any type of business in the country.
The original assumptions underlying the decision remain unclear, but it seems to be causing
considerable harm. Although popular right now, demonetisation may not end up being a good
bargain
A study by the National Investigation Agency and the Indian Statistical Institute, in 2016,
estimated that fake Indian currency notes in circulation have a face value of Rs. 400 crore.
This is an incidence of fake currency of 0.022%. The scale of counterfeiting of the Indian
rupee is not out of line with what is seen in other countries, and the procedures adopted
worldwide to address this include investigative actions against counterfeiters, phased
replacement of old series of notes with new notes that have better security features, etc.
Demonetisation is generally not seen as a tool for dealing with counterfeiting. We must also
not forget that the counterfeiters will now get to work on the new 500/2000 rupee notes,
while India will likely never do a demonetisation again
The analysis presented in the finance ministry’s White Paper on Black Money, 2012, shows
(on page 47) that, on an average, the amount of cash seized during raids by income tax
authorities is 4.88% of total undisclosed income admitted in those cases. This data is from
more than 23,000 warrants executed. Even if this decision inflicted a 100% loss upon holders
of unaccounted cash, this would imply a loss of only 4.88% of their total unaccounted wealth,
which is not much of a shock for those with such wealth. If, as is more likely, the
demonetisation has imposed a 40% loss upon holders of unaccounted wealth (who suffer a
40% discount when laundering their money), this implies a loss of just about 2% of
unaccounted wealth
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Cash is a store of value (white or black), but it is also a medium of exchange. Most people in
India only transact with cash. More than 90% of shops accept only cash or very short-term
credit. Large numbers of labourers and small value suppliers are paid in cash. While these
facts may change over time, they mean that this sudden ban may be leading to disruptions in
consumption and production. Compared to the 10,000 yen note ($137 in purchasing power
parity), the 1000 swiss franc note ($775), the USD 100 note, or the 500 euro ($530) note, the
Rs. 1000 ($31 in purchasing power parity) and Rs 500 ($15.5) are practical notes that are
used for daily transactions. Hence, demonetisation of these notes is a large adverse monetary
shock – perhaps the largest ever such shock in world history. The constraints of ATM
recalibration and currency printing are leading to a long transition period. Even ensuring 50%
re-monetisation in cash form – about Rs. 7.5 lakh crore – by December-end appears hard. The
Centre for Monitoring of Indian Economy has estimated that a few elements of the first-round
impact give a reduction of GDP of around Rs 1.3 lakh crore; the total impact will be higher
owing to the multiplier effect, the hysteresis associated with the monetary shock, the impact
upon expectations, etc.
While there is much talk about the GDP impact of this decision, a unique feature of this
episode is that there may considerable other costs that fall disproportionately upon the poor.
The rich have access to electronic payments, employees who will stand in queues to obtain
cash, and savings that are used to cope with a decline in income. The poor lack all these. If a
poor person suffers an income shock, or is not able to get medical treatment, the
consequences are enormous for the individual, but the GDP impact may be negligible. In
terms of welfare implications, these costs matter a lot more than the impact on GDP.
Some have compared this decision with a surgical strike, but it is more like a nuclear strike.
The nuclear option has been exercised before exhausting other options. Although measures to
help people disclose their undisclosed incomes have concluded, the efforts to directly or
indirectly curb illegality have barely begun. This raises concerns about the wisdom of using
this lever of demonetisation.
The poor are also more vulnerable to frauds and swindles that are thriving in the present
environment of enormous uncertainty. The unbanked are likely to be mainly the poor, and the
unexpected ban on exchange of notes has created a desperate situation for them. It is easy to
say that they should open bank accounts. But in the present situation of uncertainty, we are
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hearing reports of people resorting to desperate measures even to protect a part of their
savings. There are many reports of this happening in remote areas.
India being a vast, multi-terrain country, with the uneven presence of banking facilities, there
are many regions with poor access to banking facilities. The transaction cost of having to
make the trek to a bank branch multiple times to exchange or withdraw cash even once is
quite high as a percentage of a household’s income. We have heard stories about people
living in remote villages in hilly areas having to rely on others to get notes exchanged, and
taking losses in the process. So, for a subset of the poor living in remote locations, the costs
may be even larger. It is quite likely that the costs of this decision on the poor will be
significant, and some poor people might suffer disproportionately. Poor households have no
black money and did nothing to deserve this. Never before has a decision of the Government
shown negative effect on people so early as the current move to demonetize.
A narrative has been built on its supposed benefits. The decision has been hailed by the
supporters as a master stroke, a surgical strike which will end the reign of Black Money and
establish the supremacy of White Money. It has been described as a bold act by an
unquestionable authority whose decisions are for only collective benefit of the nation and
these decisions can nothing else be but only correct. In this extreme faith all others have been
just reduced to an audience who just need to look at the unquestionable authority who will
take decisions for the benefit of all. Any questioning of this authority only means that they
have vested interests in perpetuation and existence of the Black money economy.
A look at the current developments only breaks the narrative and shows the hollowness of the
argument. The greater common good is only a good of the few. In this supposed crackdown
on Black Economy, the Black money does not reach its dead end but continues to thrive and
benefit one side of the political divide. High cost marriages worth Rs. 500 crores continues to
get performed through usage of Black money as seen in case of Reddy’s. About Rs. 92 lakh
worth Black money in the form of new Rs. 2,000 denominations get caught with the party
claiming to be working towards ending Black money, Rs. 3 crore worth of Money gets
deposited to Party Bank account in West Bengal in the form of old denomination notes just
before the announcement. Many past and present Chief Ministers associated with party in
power continue to be involved in cases associated with corruption as in the case of
Yedurappa, Shiv Raj Chauhan and Raman Singh.
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The decision of the government has brought the economy to a standstill. The sufferers of the
decision continue to be the poorest that have no bank account – the workers in the Tea
Plantations of Assam, garment workers dependent on wage labor in Tamil nadu, the street
vendors who are completely dependent on cash transactions, the farmers who need credit for
agricultural inputs and for carrying out agricultural operations, the construction workers in
urban areas who need cash on a daily basis to meet their immediate needs, the vegetable
vendors who need to dispose off their stock the same day. Many of the operations in
Agriculture produce market committees (APMCs) have come to standstill affecting the
farmers. All the poorer sections, the dalits, the adivasis, the women who are completely out
of the cashless system in the country continue to face the havoc. Human lives continue to get
lost in this crackdown on Black Money. Lack of acceptance of old cash denominations has
only resulted in deaths of common people. Instances of denial of treatment in the name of old
denominations, deaths due to standing in long queue, suicides as rations could not be brought
on money and money which could not be sent to the needy family members on time, heart
attacks as marriages get cancelled are some of the emerging human stories. The Government
continues to describe this as a temporary inconvenience which has to be borne by the citizens
for the patriotic act. Parallels keep getting drawn with soldiers in Siachen who stand for long
hours to protect the nation. However, in this patriotic act the rich and powerful hardly stand
in long queue. Just like ordinary soldiers die in a war, so too in this case ordinary people lose
their lives. This happens at a time when large loans of corporate like Kingfisher’s get written
off. About Rs. 7,000 crore worth loans to 63 willful defaulters gets written off
A 50 day time is sought to emerge out of the temporary inconvenience. It is being pointed out
that banking operations need at-least 4-6 months to be restored back to normalcy. However
the social and human costs of this period following demonetization could be disastrous. This
is irrespective of the extreme faith being expressed on the new panacea for ending Black
money namely Demonetization.Today the politics of Maya is well and truly back in play with
Narendra Modi’s ‘Mahayagna’ a.k.a. demonetization promising a digital Moksha through the
tapasya of a ‘war on black money’. Once again, as in India’s sordid past, the biggest losers of
this devious push for a cashless economy are going to be those right at the bottom of the
Indian caste hierarchy. From all evidence so far it is clear, that the Scheduled Castes and
Scheduled Tribes, who make up a bulk of those surviving off India’s vast informal economy,
are the worst affected by the sudden disappearance of cash from the economy. Labour in
agriculture, construction, fishing, textiles, micro-enterprises, the urban and rural poor –
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mostly from these marginalized castes – have been pushed to the brink of starvation or worse
due to loss of jobs and income
The World Bank has lowered its growth forecast for India to 7 per cent from 7.6 per cent in
2016-17, citing a slowdown in consumption and manufacturing due to demonetisation and an
ongoing decline in private investment and credit constraints due to impaired bank balance
sheets. The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects January 2017 report added that the
Indian economy is subsequently set to recover its growth momentum, with growth rising to
7.6 per cent in FY18 and further strengthening to 7.8 per cent in FY20. “Unexpected
‘demonetization’— the phasing out of large-denomination currency notes which were
subsequently replaced with new ones—weighed on growth in the third quarter of FY2017,”
the report added. “Weak industrial production and manufacturing and services purchasing
managers’ indexes (PMI), further suggest a setback to activity in the fourth quarter of
FY2017.” This was further accentuated by other economic factors, the report added, leading
to a slump in the entire year’s growth rate. “A retrenchment of private investment, reflecting
excess capacity, corporate deleveraging, and credit constraints due to impaired commercial
banks’ balance sheets, also had an adverse effect on activity,” according to the report. “For
the whole of FY2017, growth is expected to decelerate to a still robust 7.0 per
cent.”Demonetization could still cause major problems in the short term, slowing reforms and
affecting smaller economies dependant on the Indian economy, according to the World Bank.
“In the short-term, ‘demonetization’ could continue to disrupt business and household
economic activities, weighing on growth,” according to the report. “Further, the challenges
encountered in phasing out large currency notes and replacing them with new ones may pose
risks to the pace of other economic reforms (e.g., Goods and Services Tax, labor, and land
reforms).” The report added that the demonetization effect on trade and remittance channels
could also affect growth rates in smaller economies such as Nepal and Bhutan. Due to this
cash crunch, India ground to a halt. Businesses shut down, farmers couldn’t buy seeds, taxi
and rickshaw drivers didn’t have any way to receive payments, employers had no way to pay
their employees, hospitals were refusing patients who only had old banknotes, fishermen
watched their catch wither up and rot, some families had difficulty buying food, and
weddings throughout the country were cancelled. Initially, demonetization was sold by Modi
as a campaign to fight corruption. It was thought that the country’s black market wouldn’t be
able to exchange or deposit their gluts of illicitly obtained wealth, and the central bank could
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have been in for a payday that was estimated to be as high as $45 billion. But this simply
didn’t happen. Even with strict regulations put in place to audit large deposits and limit the
amount of banknotes that could be exchanged at one time, India’s shadow economy was able
to unload their black money, often laundering it sparkling white in the process
Data Analysis and Interpretation
1. Do you know what exactly the meaning of demonetisation is
A] yes b] No
no
66%
yes
34%
Interpretation:
It’s a quit surprise that most of the respondents do not know the exact meaning of
demonetisation, the research conducted revealed that around 70 % of the respondents do not
know the meaning, only around 30% of people know about demonetisation
2. Do you know the definition of black money according to income tax laws
A] yes ] no c] not exactly
8

Interpretation:
Most of the respondents ado not know the actual definition of black money according to the
income tax laws of India, The majority of respondents more than 60 % are unaware of the
real definition, only a handful of respondents which is around 20 % knows the actual
definition, and what is more surprising that around 10% of the respondents tried to
understand the definition of black money in their own way of understanding
3. The demonetisation will help in curbing black money
A] agree b]disagree c] strongly agree d] strongly disagree
9

Interpretation:
As we all know One of the primary objective of demonetisation is curbing black money, but
the data collected from respondents gave a complete different picture, majority of the
respondents more than 50% do not believe that this move by the government will be able to
curb the black money which also helps to understand that the shadow economy will prevail
even after demonetisation, The data reveal that just 30% of the respondents are of the believe
that this move will curb the black money.
4. Can this step be considered as tool for making country get rid of corruption?
A] yes b] no c] minimal impact
no
57%
yes
30%
minimal impact
13% 0%
Interpretation:
The data collected reveals that majority of the respondents around 60% are not of a believe
that the move demonetisation will help the government in tackling corruption, in fact many of
the respondents said it may lead to further corruption, just 30 % of the respondents are of a
believe that this move of demonetisation will help in removing the corruption in the system,
around 10 % o of the respondents said that there will be minimal impact on the elimination of
corruption from the system
5. This process of demonetisation will help the government in tackling with border
infiltration
A] yes b] no c] No impact
10

Interpretation:
One of the significant objective of government for justifying the move of demonetisation is
stopping the border infiltration, this question tries to get the perception of respondents about
the chances of attaining this objective by the government, more than 50% of respondents said
that the border infiltration may not be stopped by demonetisation, around 30 % believe that
this move will help the government to stop the infiltration and around 15% believe that there
is no relationship between the demonetisation and border infiltration.
6. This process of demonetisation will help the government in transforming country into cash
less economy
A] yes b] no c] cannot say
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Interpretation:
The above question is intended to record the responses pertaining to the perception about
cash less economy which is also one of the objective of demonetisation move, the responses
highlights that this objective of government will be obtained in future, the data analysis
reveals that more than 60% of respondents agree to the fat that the country will be cash less
economy in future, around 30% of the respondents said that it will not be possible, around
10% respondents said that they are not able to relate the demonetisation with cash less
economy.
7. Digital infra structure in India is not at par with the international norms
A] agree b] disagree c ] strongly agree d] strongly disagree
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Interpretation:
One of the must have requirement for transforming country towards the digital country is
availability of required infrastructure, this question is intended to know the understanding of
respondents towards the existing facilities and digital infra structure prevailing in country, the
data analysis revealed that around 60% of the respondents believe that the country do not
have infrastructure to implement the digitization of money, around 20 % agrees to the fact
that the country do have the required infrastructure , around 10% of respondents disagree to
the fact that the existing digital infrastructure is not enough and
8. Over all as a citizen of country are you in favour of government move
A] yes b] no c] not full support
13
no
52%yes
33%
not full support
15%
0%

Interpretation:
This question is intended to understand the feelings of respondents towards the overall
picture of government move including all the objectives cited by the government, the data
analysis high lights that majority of the respondents more than 50 % of them in are not in a
support to government move, it’s quite surprising because most of the media houses in their
coverage pretends that majority of Indians support this move, around 30% of the respondents
said that they are in complete support to the government move, and around 15% said that
they are not in full support to the government move.
9. Demonetisation process is a short term pain but long term gain
A] agree b] disagree c] strongly agree d] strongly disagree
Interpretation:
The data analysis of the above response highlight that majority of the respondents are of a
believe that this move of demonetisation will be gain for the nation in a long run, but they
believe that it will be pain in present, What is more surprising in this research is that the
respondents do have confused state of mind in many responses and most of them took extra
time to respond to each question.
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10. The demonetisation resulted in the loss of bread and butter for daily wage workers
A] yes b] no c] not much affected
yes
68%
no
22%
not much affected
10%
Interpretation:
The above question is the question which has generated quickest reply from the respondents,
and many respondents around 70% believes that this move of demonetisation has resulted in
the loss of earnings for the daily wage earners, which implies that the most affected people
are lower class people
11. The government was not prepared for tackling the post demonetisation situation
15

Interpretation:
This question is intended to know the responses about the post demonetisation measures
taken up by the government, the analysis of collected responses shows that maximum
respondents around 60% says that it was a complete chaos and miss management and the
government was not able to tackle the post demonetisation situation properly which
ultimately resulted in loss of human lives also, around 20% respondents agree to the fact that
government has done good measures and could control the situation to an good extent,
around 10% says that government was completely prepared for facing situation arised due to
demonetisation.
12. Will the cash transactions be replaced by digital money in future
A] yes b] no c] not completely
16

Interpretation :
The one significant objective of demonetisation is making India a cash less economy, this
question is intended to know the responses towards this objective, majority of the respondents
around 60% say that India economy will be a cash less economy in future due to crunch in
the hard cash, around 30 % say that it will be futile exercise of government because Indian
cannot be a cash less economy and 10% respondents believes that cash less economy may not
be possible but semi cash less economy is possible where complete elimination of hard cash
is not possible.
13. Most of the rural population in India do not have the proper knowledge about digitization
of economy
A] agree b] strongly agree c] disagree d] strongly disagree
agree
53%strongly
agree
26%
disagree
10%
stongly disagree
11%
Interpretation:
The question is directed towards understanding the responses about the effect of
demonetisation in rural India, the analysis of data revealed that more than 50% of
respondents agree to the fact that Rural India is lacking in digital infrastructure there by this
move of government will effect badly in rural parts of country, around 25% strongly agree
to this fact that there is lack of digital infra in rural India, around 10% disagree and an equal
percentage of respondents strongly disagree to this fact, according to these respondents
India’s rural population is provided with all requirements by the government which are
needed for the implementation of demonetisation.
17

14. Introducing 2000 rupees note by banning 1000 rupee note will be a futile exercise for
controlling counterfeit currency
A] yes b] no c] no relationship
yes
68%
no
22%
no relationship
10% 0%
Interpretation:
One of the significant objective of government move of demonetisation is eliminating
counterfeit currency in the form of high denomination, this question is intended to know the
responds pertaining to their believes about this government objective, the data analysis results
are surprising because maximum respondents around 70% says that it is not possible to stop
circulation of counterfeit currency in high denominations, the base for their opinion is
collection of counterfeit 2000 currency notes almost every second day, Around 20%
respondents says that it is possible to control the venom of counterfeit currency circulation
and they say that the entire exercise is not futile and will yield results, surprisingly around
10% of respondents do not consider this move of demonetisation associated with this
objective of government and they say that there is no relationship between demonetisation
and counterfeit circulation of currency.
18

15. The demonetisation will help in stopping terror funding
agree
29%
disagree
34%
strongly agree
10%
strongly
disagree
27%
Interpretation:
The data analysis pertaining to the response about the objective of government to stop terror
funding is recorded , this question generate mix opinions and responses, there is no clear cut
majority towards any of the multiple options provided, around 30% say that this step will not
be help full in stopping terror funding, around 30% said that this may not help the
government in curbing terror funding, around 30% say that this step is a right step towards
stopping the terror funding, and a mere 10% of respondents say that this step will completely
stop funding to the terror groups.
19

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demonetisation-on-indian-economy
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A study on understanding the concept of Demonitisation

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