Adaptive Forecasting: Building a Case for the Right Digital Budget
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The document discusses digital marketing strategies, emphasizing the importance of adaptive forecasting for campaign performance based on historical data. It outlines a systematic approach to gathering data, making assumptions, and calculating projections for cost per acquisition (CPA) and cost per lead (CPL) across various marketing tactics. The author underscores the necessity for authenticity and caution when interpreting and using the forecast data.
Adaptive Forecasting: Building a Case for the Right Digital Budget
- 1. Have Confidence in Your Digital Marketing Investments
- 2. • 9 Year SEM Veteran • 1 Dog (Peanut) • Enjoys Camping & Fishing • Collects Rocks About Derrick: The Boring Stuff
- 3. Voted best fro in Fargo-Moorhead (2002) About Derrick: The Good Stuff
- 4. Most Exotic Product Sold on PPC: Iraqi Real Estate About Derrick: The Good Stuff
- 5. An Augur Augurian helps modern day executives solve critical marketing challenges, both strategic and tactical, and take action. • Organic Search (SEO) • Assessments & Audits • Site Risk Mitigation • Paid Media (SEM) • Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO) • Measurement • Build equity in your team through education and training.
- 7. “Adaptive forecasting allows you to create one forecast that speaks to a spectrum of scenarios.”
- 8. So, what is it actually? An annualized CPA or CPL projection across potential tactics. A projection that assumes you, like all good marketers, will ensure that your best performing tactics are fully funded first. $0.00 $500.00 $1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00 $3,500.00 $4,000.00 $4,500.00 $5,000.00 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 CPA Total New Deals CPA per deal
- 9. PHASE I Gather Historical Data – Determine Scope PHASE II Outline Assumptions & Recalculate Data PHASE III Graph & Communicate Results A Simple Process With Undeniable Results
- 10. • Find out what is available Impression Share, Total Lead Count, CPL = Good Impression Share, Total Acq. Count, CPA = Best • Determine Scope (Digital or All Marketing?) Ask: Will this answer the questions being asked? Phase 1 – Gather the Data!
- 11. Phase 1 – Gather the Data! Campaign Conversions Cost/conv Search Impression Share Avg. position PPC - Non-Brand 1234 59.11 53.64% 1.8 Linkedin 5 28.28 21.87% Facebook Remarketing 15 24.67 <10% PPC - Non-Brand 93 54.3 20.74% 2.6 PPC - Non-Brand 0 0 <10% 3.1 GDN - Remarketing 1 556.2 85.34% Facebook Interest Targeting 14 50.63 <10% Facebook Interest Targeting 8 60.78 15.16% PPC - Brand 276 33.95 22.48% 2.8
- 12. Make Assumptions to Forecast Performance in an Ideal World Reasons to Calculate Assumptions: • 100% impression share • Higher ad position • Bing & Yahoo included in PPC • Mid-year analytics discoveries (or tactic didn’t run full year) • Awareness boosts from other channels • New Geographies Phase 2 – Outline Assumptions & Recalculate State Campaign Conversions Cost/conv Search Impr Share Avg. position Actual Non-Brand PPC - 123 1,234.40 59.11 53.64% 1.8 100% Impression Share Non-Brand PPC - 123 2301.27 59.11 100% 1.8 100% Impr Share + Yahoo! & Bing Non-Brand PPC - 123 2761.52 59.11 100% 1.8
- 13. Phase 2 – Complete the Spreadsheet • Determine Lead Count Per Row Note: You’ll want at least 15 rows • Enter in CPL/CPA Data • Determine how many tactics you’d like to include • Add calculating columns based on what you’d like to graph Tactic Number of Leads Leads Per Row CPL Total Cost per 250 Leads Cumulative Cost Deals CPA per deal Brand 250 250 $25 $6,250 $6,250 5.4 $1,157.41 Facebook LAL 500 250 $50 $12,500 $18,750 10.8 $1,736.11 Facebook LAL 750 250 $55 $13,750 $32,500 16.2 $2,006.17 Facebook Remarketing 1000 250 $60 $15,000 $47,500 21.6 $2,199.07 Linkedin Direct Response 1250 250 $75 $18,750 $66,250 27 $2,453.70 PPC Non-brand 1500 250 $100 $25,000 $91,250 32.4 $2,816.36 Facebook Interest Targeting 1750 250 $160 $40,000 $131,250 37.8 $3,472.22
- 14. Phase 3 – The Results $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 CostPer250Leads Total Leads Total Cost per 250 Incremental Leads
- 15. Phase 3 – The Results 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 $- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 TotalDeals Total Media Costs Total Digital Media Cost for New Deals
- 16. Phase 3 – The Results $0.00 $500.00 $1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00 $3,500.00 $4,000.00 $4,500.00 $5,000.00 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 CPA Total New Deals CPA per deal
- 17. Beware! • Wield this information wisely. Be authentic, communicate well, transparency is best. • Don’t represent this forecast as perfect! • Take inflation into account • Be careful for seasonal tactics, use different calculation rules. • Use care when taking into account tactics that have been turned off, or analyzing accounts that have been restructured • If keyword updates have drastically improved performance, don’t use the full year, extrapolate the most recent data • These projections assume that you’ll run these tactics over the entire next year. If you run all tactics regardless of CPL, and use the budget you were given for an entire year your numbers will not match. • Optimization should bend cost curve down. • Using for sales requires historical marketing data, if you don’t have this you run the risk of potentially being very inaccurate.
- 18. Have Confidence