Mubaya: Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia
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The document summarizes a study on farmer perceptions of threats to their livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia. It finds that farmers perceive significant changes in weather patterns over the past 5-10 years, including more unpredictable rainfall and higher temperatures. Farmers reported their top stressors as erratic rainfall, lack of capital, and drying water sources in Zambia and climate variability, shortage of drugs, and late supply of inputs in Zimbabwe. However, the study concludes that climate variability and change remain the most critical threats for farmers, even though other stressors like lack of transport and HIV/AIDS also negatively impact their livelihoods.
Mubaya: Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia
- 1. Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 2. Outline S tudy background Objectives Methodology Findings Conclusions 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 3. Study background 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 4. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 5. Context General indications of more erratic rainfall and temperature increases in Africa A general decrease for total seasonal rainfall and temperature increases in Southern Africa Among countries worst affected are Zimbabwe and Zambia Economies agriculture (rain-fed) based 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 6. Objectives 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 7. Aim Establish farmer perceptions of climate risk, identify existing response strategies and develop appropriate strategies for adapting to future climatic change 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 8. Perceptions related to decision making Mal-adaptations attributed to problems in perception, cognition or the lack of available information Attribution Understand perceptions on non-climate risks 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 9. Objectives of the study Farmer perceptions regarding CC & V as a threat to livelihoods Investigate perceptions regarding CC & V in relation to non-climatic risks 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 10. Methodology 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 11. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 12. Approach to the study 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 13. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 14. Findings 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 15. Significant changes in weather patterns over a five year period by district 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 16. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Zimbabwe Zambia Precipitation More unpredictable- 1995 More unpredictable- late 1980s Droughts (3 seasons between 1990 & 2010) Higher incidence & intensity of dry spells Excessive rains (2 seasons after 2000) Heavy rains and floods (2 consecutive seasons 2006/7, 2008/9 Shorter rain seasons Temperature Hotter than before Hotter than before Shift in highest temperature periods Warmer winters than before Prolonged winters
- 17. Farmer perceptions of three seasons by district 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 18. Perceptions regarding causes 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Causes of CC & V Monze % Sinazongwe % Lupane % Lower Gweru % Natural causes 34 35 24 31 Deforestation 33 17 5 14 Believe its god's will/ nature, cultural beliefs 3 7 45 27 Does not know 30 41 26 28
- 19. Stressors Financial Market constraints Livestock/crop diseases Agricultural inputs Weakened government capacity Inadequate draught power/farming implements Climate related HIV and AIDS Low soil fertility 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 20. Zambia 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Stressor Food insecurity Loss of income Insecure livelihoods Total Rank Erratic rainfall 20 10 18 48 1 Lack of capital 10 20 15 45 2 Drying up of water sources 12 14 13 39 3 Few dams 10 15 8 33 4 Shortage of draught power 15 10 7 32 5 Lack of knowledge 9 12 10 31 6 Non- functional dip tanks 6 4 10 20 7
- 21. Zimbabwe 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Stressor Loss of crop yield Loss of income Insecure livelihood Total Rank Climate variability (Erratic rains, frost, drought) 18 16 16 50 1 Shortage of drugs in clinics 16 16 16 48 2 Late supply of inputs 14 16 14 44 3 Lack of transport to market produce and bad roads 10 18 12 40 4 HIV and AIDS 10 10 14 34 5 Lack of draught power 12 10 6 28 6
- 22. Changes in farming systems by district over a five year period 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 23. Conclusions 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 24. Farmers reports on local climatic conditions are generally consistent with actual climate reports Farmers may be assigning observed negative impacts on the agricultural and socio-economic system solely to climate variability Challenges in disentangling contribution of each factor to observed outcomes Climate variability and change remain the most critical for these farmers in multiplicity of stressors 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
- 25. THANK YOU 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium