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Advanced manufacturing an ICT and systems perspective
1st Edition Marco Taisch Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Marco Taisch, Klaus-Dieter Thoben, Marco Montorio
ISBN(s): 0415429129
Edition: 1
File Details: PDF, 3.65 MB
Year: 2007
Language: english

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING – AN ICT AND SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE

BALKEMA – Proceedings and Monographs
in Engineering, Water and Earth Sciences

Advanced Manufacturing –
An ICT and Systems Perspective
Editors
Marco Taisch
Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering,
Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
Klaus-Dieter Thoben
BIBA, University of Bremen, Germany
Marco Montorio
Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering,
Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
LONDON / LEIDEN / NEW YORK / PHILADELPHIA / SINGAPORE

Taylor & Francis is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK
Typeset by Charon Tec Ltd (A Macmillan Company), Chennai, India
Printed and bound in Great Britain by Antony Rowe Ltd (CPI-Group), Chippenham, Wiltshire
All rights reserved. No part of this publication or the information contained herein may be reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or
otherwise, without written prior permission from the publisher.
Although all care is taken to ensure the integrity and quality of this publication and the information herein, no respon-
sibility is assumed by the publishers nor the authors or editors for any damage to property or persons as a result of
operation or use of this publication and/or the information contained herein.
Published by: Taylor & Francis/Balkema
P.O. Box 447, 2300 AK Leiden, The Netherlands
e-mail: Pub.NL@tandf.co.uk
www.taylorandfrancis.co.uk/engineering, www.crcpress.com
ISBN 13: 978-0-415-42912-2

Advanced Manufacturing – An ICT and Systems Perspective – Taisch,
Thoben & Montorio (eds)
© 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-42912-2
Table of contents
Preface IX
Part I: Advanced manufacturing: Foresight and roadmapping initiatives
The future of manufacturing: Survey of international technology
foresight initiatives 3
M. Montorio & M. Taisch
The IMS-NoE Delphi survey of ICT in manufacturing 13
M. Montorio & M. Taisch
Manufacturing visions: A holistic view of the trends for
European manufacturing 23
C. Dreher
Part II: Product lifecycle management
Product lifecycle management: State-of-the-art, trends and challenges 37
M. Garetti, M. Macchi & S. Terzi
SMART-fm: Setting interoperability in SME-based industrial
environments 51
R. Jardim-Goncalves, H. Panetto, M. José Nuñez & A. Steiger-Garcao
Ubiquitous PLM using Product Embedded Information Devices 65
D. Kiritsis & A. Rolstadås
Closed-loop PLM 79
H.-B. Jun, D. Kiritsis & P. Xirouchakis
Part III: Sustainable products and processes
Sustainable products and processes: Challenges for future research 91
O. Myklebust, D. Kiritsis & T. Lamvik
The end-of-life stage of product systems 99
O. Myklebust & T. Lamvik
ECO-efficient LIFE-Cycle technologies: From products to service
systems 107
T. Lamvik
Part IV: Production scheduling and control
Manufacturing scheduling and control in the extended enterprise 119
B. Iung & L. Monostori
Organising and running real-time, co-operative enterprises 133
L. Monostori, R. Fornasiero & J. Váncza
Flexible and responsive cross-organisational interoperability 145
G. Weichhart, S. Oppl & T. Wäfler
V

Part V: Benchmarking and performance measures
Performance measurement systems in manufacturing: State-of-the-art
and future trends 159
S. Cavalieri, P. Valckenaers, U. Bititci, R. Bandinelli & K. Mendibil
PRODCHAIN: Supporting SMEs participating successfully in
production networks 179
R. Roesgen
Part VI: Industrial services
Industrial services: Challenges for integration and global co-operation
with supply chains 187
G. Gudergan & A. Garg
Challenges in industrial service business development 199
V
. Salminen & P. Kalliokoski
Part VII: Human factors and education in manufacturing
Human factors research to increase manufacturing productivity
and innovation 217
P
. Vink & J. Stahre
Global education in manufacturing 229
A. Rolstadås
Simulation gaming to train engineers to efficiently collaborate in
manufacturing networks 239
K.D. Thoben & M. Schwesig
Part VIII: Collaborative engineering
Co-operative and virtual engineering: A multi-stakeholder roadmap 249
J. Goossenaerts, C. Brecher, F. Possel-Dölken & K. Popplewell
Management of dynamic virtual organisations: Results from a collaborative
engineering case 263
J. Eschenbächer, F. Graser, K.D. Thoben & B. Tiefensee
Integrating the engineering of product, service and organisation within the
collaborative enterprise: A roadmap 273
K.-D. Thoben, K. Pawar, M. Pallot & R. Santoro
Part IX: Supply chain integration
Supply chain integration: State-of-the-art, trends and challenges 283
T. Gulledge, H.-H. Hvolby, C. Sheahan, R. Sommer & K. Steger-Jensen
Vendor managed inventory as a supply chain application 289
H.-H. Hvolby & K. Steger-Jensen
E-business solutions as supply chain enablers 295
K. Steger-Jensen & H.-H. Hvolby
VI

Web services as supply chain enablers 303
K. Steger-Jensen & H.-H. Hvolby
From Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) to Open Resource Planning (ORP):
The openfactory project 311
M. Meyer
Subject index 317
Author index 319
VII

Preface
Manufacturing has played, and continues to play, a vital role in the European economy and society,
and it will remain a significant generator of wealth in the future. A strong manufacturing industry
will indeed continue to be fundamental to creating stable employment inside the European economy.
For these reasons the ability to maintain and develop the competitiveness of the manufacturing
industry is essential for Europe’s prosperity. This is especially the case at the present time when
the risk of de-industrialisation is becoming increasingly serious owing to the growing intensity
of competition emerging from low-wage countries, outsourcing and off-shoring trends, and the
brain-drain phenomenon.
In such circumstances it is important to share a common understanding and create awareness of
the new challenges and opportunities for the next generation of manufacturing, and from this, to
develop a strategic research agenda and stimulate new research initiatives.
This is the rationale behind the preparation and publication of this book on Advanced Manufac-
turing, which summarises the results of three years of work within the IMS-NoE project (Network
of Excellence on Intelligent Manufacturing Systems).
The IMS-NoE, funded by the European Commission, has provided a sound support infrastructure
and a stimulating forum for discussion on the future of manufacturing and promoting excellence
in manufacturing-related research.
The Network consists of over 300 experts in manufacturing, coming not only from the Euro-
pean Union, where it originated, but also from other IMS Regions (Australia, Canada, Japan,
Korea, Switzerland and the USA). The IMS-NoE owes its success to its multi-regional and
multidisciplinary nature.
The IMS-NoE brought together the expertise and experience of hundreds of researchers, indus-
trial managers and policymakers worldwide and has collected their ideas, forming them into the
IMS-NoE Vision on the Future of Manufacturing. This was developed through the organisation
of initiatives such as: IMS-NoE Special Interest Group brainstorming meetings (www.ims-
noe.org/SIG.asp), the International IMS Forum 2004, a survey on technology foresight projects,
a Delphi study on ICT in manufacturing, and a series of workshops on ICT in manufacturing
(www.ims-noe.org/FP7.asp), which set the cornerstone for the ICT in manufacturing initiative in
the fields of:
• ICT to support management of IPR in view of industrial outsourcing/insourcing strategies;
• New intelligent and networked products;
• The agile wireless manufacturing plant;
• New manufacturing technologies for miniaturised ICT;
• Strategies for the design and manufacturing of new products.
The IMS-NoE activities must be analysed in the global framework of the IMS (Intelligent Man-
ufacturing Systems) program (www.ims.org). The IMS Phase I came to an end in 2005 and Phase
II started in 2006.
This book presents the achievements of the IMS-NoE, and in accordance to the open and col-
laborative nature of the Network, integrates these with visionary contributions coming from other
initiatives.
The result is a broad, but necessarily non-exhaustive, vision on the future of manufacturing,
which is here analysed from a system management perspective and with a special focus on
IX

ICT-related matters. Each contribution intends to present such a complex and multidisciplinary
research domain from a specific perspective, while focusing on a particular research domain.
Therefore while Part I: Advanced Manufacturing: Foresight and Roadmapping Initiatives
provides an overview of past and continuing technology foresight exercises in manufacturing,
the remaining parts will focus on:
• Part II: Product Lifecycle Management
• Part III: Sustainable Products and Processes
• Part IV: Production Scheduling and Control
• Part V: Benchmarking and Performance Measures
• Part VI: Industrial Services
• Part VII: Human Factors and Education in Manufacturing
• Part VIII: Collaborative Engineering
• Part IX: Supply Chain Integration
The ideas presented are nevertheless not intended to be an end in themselves. The book, provoca-
tive in its nature, aims at building consensus and also to stimulate fresh discussions, which may
lead to novel research initiatives in the future.
The editors wish to thank the contributors as well as the European Commission for their support.
Marco Taisch
IMS NoE Project Co-ordinator
Klaus-Dieter Thoben
IMS NoE Partner
Marco Montorio
IMS NoE Project Manager
X

Part I
Advanced manufacturing: Foresight and
roadmapping initiatives

The shift from product to service dominance in value chains does not imply that products in the
future will not play a critical role in the value creation process. Many human needs are and will
always be satisfied in a physical, rather than in a virtual way. What is radically and unavoidably
changing is not the role of manufacturing, but the way artefacts are manufactured. The ability of
the European production sector to remain competitive in the decades to come depends on its ability
to adapt and face future manufacturing challenges.
To remain competitive in this rapidly changing context it is vital to understand where to go
and how to change. In this respect several technology foresight exercises have been undertaken
in Europe, Japan, USA, Korea, Australia, Canada, as well as in other countries, with the intent
to understand how to support the manufacturing sector in the transformation from a physical
resource-based to a knowledge-based paradigm.
Discrepancies among the different studies are symptomatic of the difficulty to delineate a clear
vision on the future of manufacturing, especially given the quick and ever increasing pace of
technology shifts. Nevertheless, many similarities can be identified and, building on them, it is
necessary to delineate a clear strategic research agenda to support manufacturing.
This section presents technology foresight, visionary and roadmapping activities in manufactur-
ing, which have been undertaken within the IMS-NoE project as well as in the framework of other
initiatives, with the intent of identifying similarities and of reaching a common understanding of
them.
The first two contributions present, respectively, a survey analysis and a Delphi study that were
carried on within the IMS-NoE project.
The survey investigates past and continuing technology foresight initiatives in manufacturing,
taking into consideration projects from several IMS regions (Australia, Canada, European Union,
Korea, Japan and USA), and presenting a critical analysis of the developed visions.
The Delphi study presents a vision on the future of manufacturing, with a special focus on the
impact that ICT will have on next generation production systems.
The third contribution deals with the results of the project Manufacturing Visions – Integrating
Diverse Perspectives into Pan-European Foresight (ManVis), which started in 2004. Based on sev-
eral initiatives such as a Delphi-survey, workshops and interviews with experts, ManVis intends to
support the continuing policy process of enhancing the competitiveness of European manufacturing
industries.
2

The future of manufacturing: Survey of international technology
foresight initiatives
Marco Montorio & Marco Taisch
Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Milano
ABSTRACT: This paper surveys several technology foresight initiatives in manufacturing.
Research projects from Australia, Canada, European Union, Korea, Japan and USA have been
investigated and a critical analysis of the developed visions has been undertaken to identify specific
features and common elements.
Keywords: Technology foresight, Next-Generation Manufacturing, roadmap, vision.
1 INTRODUCTION
Manufacturing remains a key generator of wealth and is still at the heart of the economic growth
in industrialised economies. But in recent years manufacturing in developed countries has under-
gone profound changes that are bringing it from a resource-based and centralised paradigm to a
knowledge-intensive, innovation-based, adaptive, digital and networked one.
Given the prominence of manufacturing in developed economies, and being aware of the pro-
found shift that it is now facing, the ability to maintain and develop the competitiveness of
manufacturing through relevant R&D investments will be essential for the prosperity of indus-
trialised countries. This is especially true at the present time when the risk of de-industrialisation
is becoming increasingly serious, owing to outsourcing and off-shoring trends and to increased
competition coming from low-wage countries, such as China and India.
In this complex and rapidly changing environment planning a suitable R&D policy for manufac-
turing will be crucial for industrialised countries to face the continuing transition while maintaining
their competitive position.
2 MANAGING THE TRANSITION: THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT
Recognising the importance of investing in R&D for manufacturing is the first step, but under-
standing which areas to invest in and which technologies to research is the heart of the problem. To
plan R&D investments it is necessary to envision next generation manufacturing and to understand
how enterprises need to change to face future market challenges while remaining competitive. In
this sense, technology foresight represents the basis for decision making in R&D strategy.
According to Ben Martin (SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research Unit, at the Uni-
versity of Sussex – 1995) technology foresight can be defined as an activity which: “involves
systematic attempts to look into the longer term future of science, technology, the economy, the
environment and society with a view to identifying emerging generic technologies and the under-
pinning areas of strategic research likely to yield the greatest economic, social and environmental
benefits.”
3

In the last decade great attention has been given to technology foresight in manufacturing and
several initiatives have been launched in industrialised countries such asAustralia, Canada, Europe,
Japan, Korea and USA, with the intent to develop a vision on the next generation manufacturing
and thus to support R&D decisions in manufacturing for the private sector (to guide industrial R&D
strategies) and for the public one (to support policy making and funding strategies). Some of the
most relevant work carried on in the last decade are:
• IMSS – International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (international – 1st round – 1992, 2nd
round – 1996, 3rd round – 2000 and 4th round 2004);
• NGMP – Next Generation Manufacturing Project (USA - 1995);
• VISIONARY 2020 – Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 (USA – 1998);
• IMTI – Integrated Manufacturing Technology Initiative (USA – 1998);
• IMTR – Integrated Manufacturing Technology Roadmap Project (USA – 2000);
• NGMS – Next Generation Manufacturing Systems (European Union, Japan, USA – phase I –
1999 & phase II – 2000);
• Informan+ (European Union – 2000);
• FORESIGHT 2020 (UK – 2000);
• VISION 2025 (KOREA – 2000);
• FutMan – The Future of Manufacturing in Europe, 2015 – 2020 (European Union – 2003);
• ManuFuture (European Union – 2003);
• MANU 20/20 – Manufacturing in 2020 (CANADA - 2004);
• MANU INITIATIVE – The Manufacturing Initiative (USA – 2004);
• ManVis – ManufacturingVisions – Integrating Diverse Perspectives into Pan-European Foresight
(European Union – 2004).
3 SURVEY OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT INITIATIVES IN MANUFACTURING
Some of the above initiatives have been analysed to identify specific features and common elements.
TheManVis andtheManuFuture initiativesarepresentedelsewhereinthebook, soarenotdiscussed
furtherinthispaper. Inthefollowingthereareintroductionstoaselectionoftheanalysedtechnology
foresight projects. The projects, presented in chronological order, have been selected to highlight
the evolution and the profound changes which manufacturing has been facing in industrialised
countries in the last decade.
3.1 Next-Generation Manufacturing Project – USA (1995)
The Next-Generation Manufacturing Project (NGMP), started in 1995, aimed at developing a
framework which US manufacturers could use as a guide to understand the future market and the
necessary counteractions to remain competitive.
NGMP was funded by the National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Standards
and Technology, the Department of Defence, the Department of Energy and 10 other associations.
Close to 500 experts, from more than 100 companies, industry associations, government agencies
and academic institutions participated in the initiative.
NGMP output is structured into Drivers, Attributes, Dilemmas, Imperatives and Action Plan
Recommendations.
The drivers represent the forces that will shape the future competitive environment that manu-
facturing organisations will have to compete in. Among them, particular relevance is given to:
• The continuous development of ICT, which will allow information to be universally and
instantaneously available.
• The worldwide spread of scientific education.
• More competitive markets.
• A general increase in customer expectations.
• A higher environmental responsibility and consciousness of resource limitations.
4

To remain competitive, and in response to the described drivers, manufacturing enterprises will
have to develop specific attributes, such as:
• More intimate relationship with the customer, thus achieving customer responsiveness and even
anticipating customers’ requirements in terms of products and services.
• Flexible, adaptable and responsive processes, equipment, plants, human resources and strategies.
• Intra- and inter- enterprise team working and ability to face increasing problem complexity.
Manydesiredattributesofthefuturevisionareinapparentconflict.Thishighlightstheemergence
of some dilemmas (or key barriers), that on the other side may also represent opportunities for
achieving competitive advantages. NGMP identified three kinds of dilemmas.
• For the enterprise the dilemmas will be: How to guarantee employee security and loyalty within
rapid skill shifts, turnover in the labour force and a flexible workforce? How to achieve collabora-
tive knowledge sharing within knowledge-based competition? How to control core competencies
without owning them? How to recover rising plant and equipment costs with shorter product
and process lifetime? How to profit from long-term relationships when customers, suppliers and
partners are becoming less loyal?
• For the nation the dilemmas will be: How to keep domestic jobs while developing global markets?
How to deal with transnational corporations?
• For the individual the dilemmas will be: How to have good jobs with individual security while
employed in flexible workplaces?
The dilemmas can be overcome through the identified imperatives, that is, practices and
technology solutions, grouped into four categories: people-related, business process-related,
technology-related and integration-related. All the imperatives are strongly interdependent; there
is a need to simultaneously address all actions from an integrated people, business process and
technology viewpoint across all elements of the enterprise to realise the desired objectives.
People-related imperatives stress the importance of: a flexible workforce, which includes not
only the individual worker, but also the workplace and government policy; and knowledge sup-
ply chains, which must provide and spread knowledge among industry, university, school and
associations.
Concerningbusinessprocesses, NGMPunderlinedtheneedforrapidproduct/processrealisation,
innovation and change management; a necessity given rapidly changing environment and customer
expectations. This search for flexibility, adaptability to customer requirements, and short time to
market will be enabled by re-configurable, scalable and cost effective processes and equipment,
pervasive modelling and simulation, and adaptive, responsive information systems.
The increasing range of knowledge and competencies needed to produce products or services
or both will drive a growing integration; this has to be viewed from two perspectives: integration
and collaboration among companies, which are grouped in extended enterprises, and integration
within the company, among people, information, business practices and processes.
NGMP addressed all the stakeholders involved (enterprises, industry associations, academia,
government and individuals) introducing several cross-cutting action plan recommendations, such
as the need to: develop systematic processes for knowledge capture and knowledge-based man-
ufacturing; establish a government partnership with industry and academia for a supportive
manufacturing infrastructure; enable and promote pervasive use of modelling and simulation;
and develop intelligent processes and flexible manufacturing systems.
3.2 Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 – USA (1998)
www.nap.edu/html/visionary
The Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 initiative aimed to identify key R&D areas for
investments to support US manufacturing. Funded by the National Research Council in 1998, it
convened a committee of manufacturing and technology experts, with representatives from small,
medium and large companies from a variety of industries.
5

Starting from the Next Generation Manufacturing Project and other roadmapping initiatives in
manufacturing, Visionary 2020 relied on an international Delphi survey that helped the committee
to prioritise future industry needs.
Above all, Visionary 2020 underlined the need for a strong collaboration among research
centres, academia, industry, and government institutions as a critical success factor to keep US
manufacturing competitive in the global market.
Visionary 2020 depicted a vision of the future competitive environment that will be charac-
terised by:
• A growing development and diffusion of information and communication technologies which
will allow the instantaneous availability of knowledge and information.
• In turn this will bring to a sophisticated, global and highly competitive market, where enterprises
must base their success on continuous innovation, a skilled workforce and knowledge sharing.
• A higher customer demand for customised products and services, which will push the enterprise
to be flexible and rapid in its responses.
• An increased sensitivity to environmental protection, which will be essential for the global
ecosystem.
The changed market competition can be faced only by tackling the so called Six Grand
Challenges, which are:
1. Concurrent manufacturing. Concurrent manufacturing reduces time to market, encourages
innovation and improves quality. Concurrency in all operations needs new technologies in
process management and in rapid prototyping, and more flexible machines and interactive
computer networks that will allow skilled workers to share knowledge.
2. Integration of human and technical resources. Technologies will be adaptable to the changing
needs of the market, and people will have the know-how to optimise and enhance them. Indi-
vidual workers will continue to specialise and will share their knowledge with the other workers
in networks that will include suppliers, partners and customers. Factory organisation will be
less structured, allowing workers to reorganise themselves, the equipment and the processes to
meet customer demands.
3. Conversion of information to knowledge. Enterprises will need to instantaneously transform
information from a vast array of diverse sources into useful knowledge and effective decisions,
and to make this knowledge available to users (human and machine) instantaneously.
4. Environmental compatibility. Production waste and product environmental impact will be
reduced to near zero. This challenge can be won through developing cost-effective products
and processes that do not harm the environment, using recycled materials and minimising
wastes in terms of energy, material and human resources. A proactive approach is needed, with
a strong collaboration among governments, academia and enterprises.
5. Re-configurable enterprises. In response to the changing customer demand for customised
products and services, enterprises will need to reorganise themselves, rapidly forming and
dissolving alliances with other organisations and teams within the enterprise.
6. Innovative processes. New concepts need to be applied to manufacturing operations, lead-
ing to dramatic changes in production capabilities. Great attention needs to be given to
nanotechnologies and biotechnologies.
Visionary 2020 have identified some key technology research areas. These are: adaptable
and re-configurable systems; technologies for the minimisation of waste and energy consump-
tion; biotechnology and nano-technology; modelling and simulation; product and process design
methods; human-machine interfaces; technologies to convert information into knowledge for
effective decision making; new educational and training methods; and software for intelligent
collaboration systems.
6

3.3 IMTI – IMTR – USA (1998 – 2000)
www.IMTI21.org
The Integrated Manufacturing Technology Roadmap (IMTR) project was launched in 1998 by the
National Institute of Standards andTechnology, the US Department of Energy, the National Science
Foundation and the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency with the intent to produce an
integratedsuiteofplanstohelpandguidenationalmanufacturingtechnologyinvestments. Sixgrand
challenges, which should be faced to stay competitive in the future manufacturing environment,
and four technological areas, needed to win these challenges, were identified.
IMTR represented a planning phase and was followed in 2000 by the Integrated Manufacturing
Technology Initiative (IMTI), the implementation phase, which aims at stimulating the implementa-
tion of high-priority R&D projects to support the goals outlined by IMTR. IMTI serves as a point of
synergy for manufacturers, technology suppliers, research organisations, universities, associations
and consortia, to promote co-operation and to facilitate collaborative development of high-priority
technologies.
Based on existing roadmaps, for example NGMP, Visionary 2020, and Internet-based surveys,
the entire project involved more than 300 individuals, representing over 150 organisations.
The developed vision shows a competitive environment characterised by dynamics and
uncertainty, an accelerated pace of technological change, growing customer expectations, and
competition among extended enterprise. The above mentioned six grand challenges are:
1. Lean, Efficient Enterprises: enterprises will integrate business process improvements and work-
force performance enhancements with new technologies that raise manufacturing to a new level
of efficiency.
2. Customer-Responsive Enterprises: future manufacturing enterprises will leverage a global
communications infrastructure and customer-centric design, manufacturing, and lifecycle man-
agement systems to conceive, build, deliver, and support innovative products and services that
directly satisfy diverse customers’ needs.
3. Connected Enterprises: future manufacturing enterprises will be interconnected among all their
internal functions and external partners, suppliers and customers; these extended enterprises
will inter-operate as an integrated entity, irrespective of geographic boundaries.
4. Environmental Sustainability: manufacturers will face conflicts between the drive to industri-
alise and the need to protect the global environment; this problem must be addressed, developing
innovative materials, zero net lifecycle waste management, and recycling products, with no
negative impacts to the environment.
5. Knowledge Management: future manufacturing enterprises will be able to capture individual
expertise and experience for efficient reuse and draw on a rich, openly accessible shared base
of scientific, business, and process knowledge to make accurate decisions and ensure that the
right people get the right information at the right time.
6. Technology Exploitation: it is important to identify and master the right technologies, which
will give competitive advantages. Among them: nano-technology, Internet, computers and
electronics, polymers, plasma physics.
Four technological areas were identified to achieve and win the six grand challenges: information
systems for manufacturing, modelling and simulation, manufacturing processes and equipment,
technologies for enterprise integration.
3.4 Next Generation Manufacturing Systems Program – European Union, Japan, USA (Phase
I – 2000; Phase II – 2003)
http://cam-istandards.org/ngms.html
The Next Generation Manufacturing Systems Program is made up by an international consortium
drawing together 22 companies and 11 research groups in the USA, Europe and Japan.
For NGMS the future environment, which manufacturing enterprises will have to compete in, is
characterised by strategies based on global networks of self-organising, autonomous units. These
7

units may be part of one company, or part of several companies, located globally, all co-operating
to address customers’ requirements.
These networks of companies need to rapidly adapt to changing requirements, new technologies
and increased globalisation; shorter response times will not allow for experimentation and iteration
with real artefacts, so all decisions will be made on the basis of modelling and simulation, rather
than build-and-test methods. The entire supply chain (or virtual enterprise) will be modelled and
simulated before actual operation allowing choices to be tried and evaluated quickly.
The Next Generation Manufacturing Enterprise will be characterised by:
• Re-configurability: the ability for fast adaptation to erratic and unpredictable environment
changes;
• Capability of development: the ability to make evolutionary adaptations;
• Capability to manage turbulence: the ability to create and control turbulence in defined,
demarcated markets;
• Capability to realise changes: the ability and the readiness of all employees to change internal
structures;
• Evolutionary capability: the ability to continuously change through analysing and learning from
the weaknesses and potencies of the past;
• Uniqueness: permanent differentiation compared to competitors;
• Focus on core competencies: competencies to produce unique core products, not only with
knowledge, but also with wide practical experience.
(Source: NGMS White Paper).
3.5 FutMan – European Union (2003)
http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/industrial_technologies/articles/article_410_en.html
The FutMan project sought to assist the European Commission in examining what technological,
knowledge and organisational capabilities might be required by European manufacturing to remain
competitive and sustainable by the year 2020. Particular attention was paid to technological priority
areas and to any policy changes required.
FutMan enabled the creation of a forum of manufacturing experts who participated, among
other activities, in a scenario generation exercise with the intent to develop coherent long-term
visions of European manufacturing in 2015–2020 which could be used as a basis for strategic
planning. The scenarios represent imaginative, coherent views on potential socio-economic and
technological developments in the future that are likely to shape the European manufacturing sector.
Each scenario includes technological, economic, environmental and socio-political factors.
Four individual scenarios were developed, structured along two qualitative dimensions of change.
The first dimension refers to policy making and specifically to the balance between central and
decentralised decision-making in Europe, and to the co-ordination level between different policy
areas. The second dimension refers to the extent to which social and environmental consciousness
and public values will impact on future consumer behaviours and demand patterns. The four
scenarios, synthesised in terms of scenario features and implications for manufacturing, are:
Global Economy
• Scenario features:
– Global governance: World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the interests of large multinational
companies shape international trade policies. Policy-making principally aims to strengthen
market mechanisms and competition. Little co-ordination of policies among nations.
– Consumer: consumers pursue personal utility without paying too much attention to environ-
mental and social impacts of production and consumption.
• Manufacturing implications:
– Manufacturers focus on customisation and individualisation of products.
– The engineering processes are assumed to be quick and flexible.
8

loose
concerted
Sustainable
Times
Local
Standard
Global
Economy
Focus
Europe
collective
individual
public values and consumer
behaviour
integration of SD
-
relevant policies
Sustainable
Times
Local
Standard
Global
Economy
Focus
Europe
public values and consumer behaviour
int
egr
ati
on
of
SD
rel
eva
nt
pol
icie
s
SD: Sustainable Development
Figure 1. FutMan scenarios (Source: FutMan – The Future of Manufacturing in Europe 2015–2020 – The
Challenge for Sustainability – Final Report).
– The scenario favours short-term industrial research activities.
– Sustainability improvements are just a second-order effect owing to the search for energy
consumption efficiency.
Local Standard
• Scenario features
– Global governance: new global protectionism, local authorities have gained new powers.
Regional governments determine policy priorities and drive regulation.
– Consumer: consumers and citizen groups (organised in Non-Governmental Organisations
(NGOs)) push their agendas on local environmental issues.
• Manufacturing implications
– High innovation dynamic on a regional level but disparities among regions.
– Regional peculiarities lead to a complex environment where centralisation and decentralisation
of manufacturing operations will coexist depending on sectors, processes and products.
– Regional demand structures require new solutions for flexible specialisation in manufacturing.
Sustainable Times
– Global governance: a global governance system has emerged that promotes sustainable
development and environmental protection worldwide.
– Consumer: citizens support government co-ordination to reconcile the economic, environ-
mental, and social dimensions of sustainability.
– Industry is a partner, closely collaborating with governments and the civil society. Emphasis
is given to socially responsible technology development. The notion of competitiveness
is broadened taking into account environmental and social aspects of production and
consumption.
– The manufacturing industry strongly pursues service-orientation in product design, and the
product becomes less important within the value chain.
– The industry strives for the optimisation of product lifecycles, introducing full lifetime control
and management for their products.
9

Focus Europe
– Global governance: Europe emerges as powerful actor to guide societies toward sustainability.
WTO has facilitated international trade but macro-regional disparities may prevail when it
comes to sustainable development strategies.
– Consumer: individualism prevails and citizens transfer their responsibility for sustainable
development to their governments.
– The priority given to strategically important sustainable technology development strengthens
Europe’s competitive advantage in advanced manufacturing technologies.
– Industry works hard to attract and keep personnel experienced in using advanced manufac-
turing tools, managing virtual factories, using simulation methods, etc.
The developed scenarios are not exclusive and most likely a combination of them will occur.
Some common developments for future manufacturing can nevertheless be identified:
• Human capital: human capital will replace physical capital at the core of competitive advantage.
• Value added and customisation through provision of services: product value and customisation
will increase thorough incorporating a greater service element into the product, during design
and during after-sales.
• Virtual enterprises: virtual enterprises via B2B will radically alter their organisational structures
and the competitive positioning of firms. Co-opetition will be the rule.
• Flexibility: flexibility will be achieved at a low cost.
• New materials (nano- and biotechnologies) and improved conventional materials in new
applications.
• Sustainability: thesearchforsustainability, eithersoughtbyenterprisesasasourceofcompetitive
advantage or enforced by governments, will play a key role in future production systems.
• Closed-loop systems: waste outputs from one process are used as an input to other processes.
3.6 Manufacturing 20/20 – Canada (2004)
www.cme-mec.ca/mfg2020/index.asp
Manufacturing 20/20, an initiative led by Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME), engaged
business leaders, academics, policymakers and other interested parties.
The initiative aimed to develop a detailed roadmap for manufacturing, including a vision on the
future of manufacturing in Canada, a list of gaps and challenges, and several recommendations to
all the stakeholders.
Among the identified challenges and opportunities the project stressed the importance to:
• Compete on increasingly sophisticated products.
• Take advantage of new markets and business opportunities offered by the developing economies.
• Keep up with rapidly changing customer demands and the accelerating pace of innovation.
• Speed up the rate of new product introductions and process improvements.
• Secure a reliable and cost-competitive supply of energy.
• Obtain adequate financing for new investments, re-engineering and business growth.
• Overcome outdated perceptions of manufacturing on the part of young people, governments and
the general public.
Looking to the next five to ten years, Canadian manufacturers highlighted that their future
competitiveness and growth opportunities will depend on differentiation in competitive suc-
cess determinants such as: time to market and time to delivery; service; product; innovation;
global sourcing; global markets; continuous improvement; agility; highly skilled workforce;
collaboration; productivity improvement; and cost competitiveness.
10

4 TOWARDS A NETWORKED, KNOWLEDGE-BASED, VALUE INTENSIVE
MANUFACTURING
The analysed projects present specific features in their visions and, over coming years the intro-
duction of new concepts and the refining of old ones. Nevertheless the most recent works share
some basic ideas on the future of manufacturing.
Above all there is a common understanding that, while manufacturing will continue to move
closer to emerging markets and to become outsourced into low-cost regions, including large parts
of related design and engineering, industrialised countries can only remain competitive by being
able to maintain manufacturing of high added value that is rapidly deployable.
Thedevelopment, manufacturing, andcontinuousmaintenanceofnewvalueintensive, intelligent
and networked products will play a vital role in such a scenario. These products will be:
• Value intensive, since there will be hardly space for competition on a cost basis with enterprises
from developing countries;
• Complex, since they will include a physical/hard part, and a virtual, digital, soft and intangible
part;
• Multidisciplinary, since contributions from different scientific disciplines (nano-technology,
biotechnology, infotechnology) will be brought together;
• Adaptable and customisable;
• Multi-stakeholder, since beside the traditional customer-product interaction, wider social and
environmental considerations will drive customer purchasing behaviour and this has to be taken
into consideration from the early concept generation phase;
• Long term / lifecycle oriented (lifetime responsibility; lifetime earning potential, …);
• Provided with embedded intelligence.
In parallel, production processes will face a profound shift that will bring them from a centralised,
local paradigm to a distributed and global one. Isolated enterprises will not have anymore the know-
how and the physical resources to compete in a highly aggressive global dynamic environment.
Networks of enterprises (extended and virtual enterprises) will compete against other networks. In
this framework the ability to manage co-opetition will be the key for success.
These networks will have to combine agility and leanness to achieve customer total satisfaction
while being at the same time cost effective.
REFERENCES
Agility Forum, Leaders for Manufacturing, and Technologies Enabling Agile Manufacturing (1997),
“Next-Generation Manufacturing, A Framework for Action. Executive Overview”.
R.E. Albright (2003), “Roadmapping Convergence”, Albright Strategy Group, LLC. Available at
http://www.albrightstrategy.com
C. Anderson & P. Bunce, CAM-I Next Generation Manufacturing Systems Program (2000), “Next Generation
Manufacturing Systems NGMS White Paper”. Available at http://cam-i.org/ngms.html
AUS Industry Science Council (2001), “Technology Planning for Business Competitiveness”, Emerging
Industries. Available at http://industry.gov.au/library/content_library/13_technology_road_mapping.pdf
CAM-I Next Generation Manufacturing Systems Program (2000), “NGMS-IMS project Phase II. Synergistic
Integration of Distributed Manufacturing and Enterprise Information. Reference Manual”. Available at
http://cam-i.org/ngms.html
Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (2004), “Manufacturing 20/20: Building Our Vision for the Future”.
Available at http://www.cme-mec.ca/mfg2020/index.asp
Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (2004), “Manufacturing 20/20 – Update & Preliminary Report”.
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Overview”, Intelligent Manufacturing Systems. Available at http://www.ims.org
11

Committee on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges, established by the National Research Council’s Board on
Manufacturing and Engineering Design (1998), “Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020”. Available
at http://www.nap.edu/html/visionary
R.S. da Fonseca, “UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme” (2000), UNIDO. Available at
http://www.unido.org/foresight
C. Dreher, H. Armbruster, E. Schlrrmeister, P. Jung-Erceg, “ManVis Report 2 – Preliminary Results from the
first Round of the ManVis Delphi Survey” (2005), Fraunhofer Institute for System and Innovation Research.
European Commission (2003), “Working Document for The ManuFuture 2003 Conference”. Available at
http://www.manufuture.org
European Commission (2004), “ManuFuture: A Vision for 2020”. Available at http://europa.eu.int/comm/
research/industrial_technologies/manufuture/home_en.html
Foresight Manufacturing 2020 Panel Members (N. Scheele, A. Daly, M. Gregory, etc.) (2000), “UK
Manufacturing: We can make it better. Final Report Manufacturing 2020 Panel”. Available at
http://www.foresight.gov.uk/manu2020
FutMan Project (2003), “The Future of Manufacturing in Europe 2015-2020,The Challenge for Sustainability”,
Available at http://www.cordis.lu
Industry Canada, (2000), “Technology Roadmapping: A Guide for Government Employees”.
Integrated Manufacturing Technology Roadmapping (2000), “Integrated Manufacturing Technology
Roadmapping Project: An Overview of the IMTR Roadmaps”, Available at http://www.IMTI21.org
Integrated Manufacturing Technology Roadmapping (2000), “Manufacturing Success in the 21st Century: A
Strategic View”. Available at http://www.IMTI21.org
IMS-NoE website, www.ims-noe.org
ManuFuture, “ManuFuture: A Vision for 2020”, 2004.
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ManVis, “Results from the Manvis first questionnaire”, 2005.
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology, National Institute of Science and Technology
Policy, “The Seventh Technology Foresight” (2001). Available at http://www.nistep.go.jp
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R. Phall (2002), “Technology Roadmapping”, Centre for Technology Management, University of Cambridge,
United Kingdom
Planning Committee organised by Korean Government (2000), “Vision 2025, Korea’s Long-term Plan for
Science and Technology Development”. Available at http://www.most.go.kr
South Africa Manufacturing and Materials Working Group (2004), “Foresight Manufacturing Report”.
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Strategy to Address the Challenges to U.S. Manufacturers”. Available at http://www.nam.org
Vision Consortium (2003), “Information Societies Technology Programme. Final Version of Strategic
Roadmap”, Contract Number IST-2002-38513.
12

The IMS-NoE Delphi survey of ICT in manufacturing
Marco Montorio & Marco Taisch
Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Milano
ABSTRACT: Within the framework of the IST project, IMS-NoE (Network of Excellence on
Intelligent Manufacturing Systems), financed by the European Commission under the 5th Frame-
work Programme, a Delphi study was undertaken with the intent of building a vision on the future of
manufacturing with a special focus on the impact of Information and CommunicationTechnologies
(ICT) on the next generation of production systems. This paper summarises the results obtained
from the Delphi study and proposes a critical analysis in terms of future competitive environment
(external drivers), manufacturing enterprise attributes in response to the new market challenges
(internal attributes) and key enabling ICT.
Keywords: ICT for manufacturing, next generation manufacturing, vision, Delphi study,
intelligent manufacturing systems.
1 THE DELPHI SURVEY OF ICT IN MANUFACTURING
Within the IST project, IMS-NoE (Network of Excellence on intelligent Manufacturing Systems)
(available at www.ims-noe.org), financed by the European Commission under the 5th Framework
Programme, several activities have been undertaken aimed at developing a vision on the future of
manufacturing: among these was a Delphi survey.
The survey, which aimed to develop a vision on the next generation manufacturing enterprises
and the competitive environment they will have to face, had a special focus on the role which
Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) will play in this context and how they will
shape manufacturing in the decade to come. The Delphi was based on a two step survey with open-
and closed- answer questions respectively on the first and second questionnaires.
The panel of the survey was made up of worldwide experts in manufacturing coming from
industry, consulting, university and research, with a total of almost 1000 participants. The obtained
response rate was equal to 16%. Figures 1 and 2 show respectively the composition and the
geographical origin of the panel.
2 THE STRUCTURE OF THE OUTPUT: DRIVERS, ATTRIBUTES AND ICT
The Delphi questionnaire was structured into three sections. Within each section questions were
asked to the interviewed experts with the intent to portray a vision on:
1. The future competitive environment (external drivers) which manufacturing enterprises will have
to face.
2. The assets, features, capabilities and attributes that manufacturing enterprises will have to
develop in response to the new market challenges (internal attributes).
3. The key enabling Information and Communication Technologies that will enable manufacturing
enterprises to remain competitive and profitable in future markets.
13

Research
25%
University
35%
Consultancy
16%
Government
1%
Industry
23%
Figure 1. Composition of the Delphi panel.
USA
Canada
Russia
China
Japan
Australia
EU (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Poland,
Portugal, Spain, Sweden, The Netherlands,
UK) + Norway + Switzerland
Figure 2. Geographical origin of the Delphi panel.
For the first step of the Delphi study the experts were asked to answer open questions and were
invited to use all their knowledge and creativity. The obtained answers were then clustered adopting
an ad hoc statistical text-analysis technique to reduce them into a few statements. These statements
were then sent back to the participants, who were asked to select the 5 most relevant among them
according to their opinion.
In the following the main external drivers (D), the most important internal attributes (A) and the
key Information and CommunicationTechnologies (T) identified by the experts are listed, from the
most voted for, down to the least one. Included in each element is the percentage of experts who
selected the item.
The competitive environment (external drivers):
D1. (65%) Competition among manufacturing enterprises will be mainly based on customisation,
on products and their related services. An ever more demanding customer in terms of price,
quality, adherence to delivery times and customisation of product design, will require cus-
tomised products and services to meet individual needs, in a total lifecycle oriented approach
(customisation of design, production, after sales and end of life processes).
D2. (58.4%) Every manufacturing enterprise will be highly focused on its core business. Cen-
tralised local production will be increasingly replaced by networked global production.
Isolated enterprises will not have anymore the know-how and the physical resources to com-
pete in a highly competitive global dynamic context. Competition will be among networks
14

of firms where every global, virtual extended enterprise will be made up by a large number
of companies. Full transparency and sharing of information among the nodes will enable an
efficient Supply Network management (e.g. real-time management).
D3. (45.1%) Co-opetition among enterprises will be the rule. Enterprises will compete and co-
operate at the same time.This will be enabled also by the use of standard software interfaces. In
particular pre- and post- competitive knowledge will be shared among co-opeting enterprises.
D4. (39.8%) The relationship between customer and supplier will become more complex (relying
on articulated service contracts) and will last for the entire product/service lifecycle (from
product/service conception, through its production, use and down to its disposal).
D5. (38.2%) Owing to B2B and B2C practices, markets will become increasingly global. The
customer will get to know products and services independently of where these are produced
and they will be able to purchase them from all over the world through the Internet.
D6. (36.7%)AnefficientandeffectiveSupplyChainwilldeliverhighqualityproductsandservices
to the final customer; in this view, rather than lowering prices, a continuous effort to improve
quality and delivery times will be shared by all the Supply Chain actors.
D7. (35%) Academia and research, even in developing countries, will collaborate more deeply,
creating consortia or networks of excellence, in which they will solve shared problems.
Research centres will act as expertise suppliers to industry (e.g. technology adoption and
improvements, continuous learning for employees…), in a real knowledge supply chain.
D8. (26.7%) Customers’ purchasing behaviour will be led by satisfaction criteria (e.g. quality of
products and services, delivery times…) as well as environmental and social criteria (e.g.
environmental awareness, social influence, culture, fashion effect, …).
D9. (23.3%) Labour market will be global, leading to a high worldwide mobility of the workforce,
which will be flexible, highly qualified, and oriented to high technology and services. The
availability of skilled workforce will be a bottleneck for enterprises, while the unskilled
workforce will decline.
D10. (21.7%) Government will have an active role in promoting public funded international long-
term research programmes and in supporting the collaboration between R&D actors and
enterprises (in particular SMEs).
D11. (20%) The market saturation, in developed countries, will increase, owing to the entrance
of new enterprises from China, India and the Far East. The difficulty of finding new forms
of competitive advantage will bring the market to a highly aggressive competition. As a
consequence enterprises will find growing entry barriers to the market in the future. Niche
manufacturing markets will tend to be saturated as well.
The enterprise answer to the foreseen external pressures (internal attributes):
A1. (69.2%)The combination of emerging technologies such as bio-, nano- and new material tech-
nologies will enable the development of innovative products, which will be incredibly more
complex, customised and provided with embedded intelligence. Mastering these technolo-
gies will be the key for success in developed countries for the next generation manufacturing
enterprises.
A2. (48.4%) The enterprise will be highly integrated with the Supply Chain, through organisa-
tional and technological supports (e.g. automatic negotiation and contracting). Consequently
the differences between managing in-sourced and outsourced activities will decrease.
A3. (45.7%) A total lifecycle approach will be implemented to manage the product/service from
theconcept, throughthedesign, production, anduse, downtotheendofitslifeanditsdisposal.
A4. (41.8%) Process design and management will be automated, flexible, re-configurable and
enhanced by ICT tools (e.g. online re-configuration).
A5. (39.9%) People will be at the heart of manufacturing process design. The production systems
will be equipped with friendlier human-machine interfaces, aiming at deeper human-machine
co-operation.
15

A6. (36.5%) There will be an enhancement of workforce flexibility, regarding contracts, time and
mobility. Automation and service orientation will also lead to an increase of highly skilled
support personnel. Ad hoc contracts will be used to retain key skills.
A7. (31.7%) Every enterprise product and process design activity will be customer driven and
expressly carried on with the intent to satisfy a specific customer request. The enterprise will
develop sophisticated internal procedures and solutions (CRM) to discover and formalise
customer needs.
A8. (31%) Knowledge management solutions will be largely adopted and will be fundamental to
translating enterprise information into knowledge and acquiring / managing the knowledge
and experience developed by highly skilled workers.
A9. (30%) Production systems will have high environmental care. Products and production
systems will be environmentally cleaner.
A10. (27.6%) The product and process management will implement lean approaches with the
purpose of achieving continuous improvement and systematic innovation (based on TQM,
BPR, . . . approaches).
A11. (25%) The organisation of the enterprise will be adhocratic: organised by processes (and not
by functions), dynamic, flexible, lean, with a reduced number of hierarchical levels and team
oriented.
A12. (Less than 20%) In developed countries there will be mainly space for just two kinds of
production systems. The first solution will be a large, highly automated, high technology and
almost unmanned plant.The second one will be a small, flexible, low-volume, re-configurable
and labour intensive production plant close to the market (e.g. for final assembling, person-
alisation…), aiming at mass customisation. There will be little space for other configurations
in between.
Key enabling Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs):
T1. (61.5%) Modelling, prototyping and simulation tools for plants, processes and products (e.g.
enterprise modelling, online and collaborative prototyping, rapid and virtual prototyping,
computer aided tools (CAx) …).
T2. (56.8%) Intelligent production planning systems (e.g. expert systems, neural networks,
genetic algorithms, vision systems, multi-agent systems …).
T3. (54.8%) Tracking devices technologies for production and logistics processes (e.g. RFID,
smart tags …).
T4. (40.1%) Internet solutions (e.g. B2B and B2C solutions, semantic web, e-communications
tools, Internet 2 …).
T5. (34-3%) Software and hardware interfaces for the integration of different ICT systems (based
on standards and protocols).
T6. (33-2%) Lean manufacturing solutions (e.g. design for manufacturing and assembly (DFMA),
modularisation of components, Group Technology, Total Quality Management …).
T7. (33.5%) Knowledge-based information systems to model, store and manage experts’ knowl-
edge (e.g. knowledge communities, virtual innovation centres, virtual partnerships among
academia/research/enterprises …).
T8. (32.5%) Adaptive and feed forward process control systems (e.g. relying on the correct
Key Performance Indicators) and sensors (e.g. miniaturised wireless sensors, multi-sensors
systems …).
T9. (28.3%) Pervasive automation of processes and equipment highly integrated with humans
(e.g. intelligent and friendly interfaces).
T10. (23.3%) Planning tools for the knowledge integration (e.g. ERP, SCM, CRM, MIS …) and
for data mining.
T11. (Less than 20%)Technologies for pervasive, always and everywhere available communication
(e.g. wireless, GPRS, UMTS …).
T12. (Less than 20%) Technologies for assuring information security (e.g. IPR defence, anti-
hacking).
16

T13. (Less than 20%) Remote assistance for plant monitoring and maintenance (e.g. online
diagnosis and repair of faults …).
3 DRIVER-ATTRIBUTE AND ATTRIBUTE-ICT RELATIONSHIPS
Specific questions within the Delphi survey were asked to the participants to identify the correlation
among internal attributes and external drivers on one side, and ICT and external attributes on the
other. In other words the questioned experts were invited to identify:
• Which enterprise attributes will turn out to be crucial to face the forthcoming competitive
environment, or, in other words which internal attributes will be necessary to face each identified
external drivers;
• Which Information and Communication Technologies will be vital for the enterprise to achieve
profitability and sustainability, or, in other words which ICTs will be necessary to achieve each
identified internal attribute.
Figures 3 and 4 represent the correlation identified by the experts respectively for driver-attribute
and attribute-ICT couples. The table should be read according to the following legend:
Dark spot At least 75% of the interviewed experts have identified an existing relationship
for the driver-attribute or attribute-ICT couple under evaluation.
Intermediate Between 50% and 75% of the interviewed experts have identified an existing
spot relationship for the driver-attribute or attribute-ICT couple under evaluation.
Light spot Between 25% and 50% of the interviewed experts have identified an existing
relationship for the driver-attribute or attribute-ICT couple under evaluation.
No spot Less than 25% of the interviewed experts have identified an existing relationship
for the driver-attribute or attribute-ICT couple under evaluation.
4 INDUSTRY-RESEARCH BENCHMARKING
A benchmark between the answers given by the interviewed representatives of academia and
research on one side and industry and consulting on the other has been carried on with the intent out
of highlighting possible discrepancies. Identified drivers, attributes and ICTs have been compared,
showing a general concordance, with a few exceptions.
4.1 Comparison of the drivers
Figure 5 shows a comparison between the drivers identified by representatives from univer-
sity/research on one-side and industry/consulting firms on the other.
It is possible to notice a general correspondence between the answers given by the two groups.
For example driver D1 (product and service customisation) and driver D2 (focus on core business
and emergence of virtual and extended enterprises) are at the top of both lists.
Nevertheless it is valuable to point out how driver D11 (increased market saturation) is envisioned
by researchers and academic people as a significant challenge for the future while experts from
industry and consulting firms give less emphasis to this.
One more consideration is that D4 (complex customer-supplier relationships) and D5 (globali-
sation through B2B and B2C solutions) appear to be more important for researchers and academic
people.
17

Figure 3. Driver-attribute relationships.
4.2 Comparison of the attributes
Figure 6 compares the attributes identified by representatives from university/research on one-side
and industry/consulting firms on the other.
Even when it comes to attributes it is possible to notice a general homogeneity between the
answers given by the two groups. It is worth highlighting for example how attribute A1 (combina-
tion of emerging technologies such as bio-, nano- and new material technologies will enable the
development of innovative products) is considered to be of crucial importance for both.
As an exception it can be seen that:
• A9 (products and production systems will be environmentally cleaner) and A6 (importance of
flexible and high-skilled workforce) are seen as key abilities of the future enterprise for the
researchers while this is less the case for industrialists and consultants.
18

Figure 4. Attribute-ICT relationships.
• The opposite is true for A8 (efficient knowledge management solutions to translate information
into knowledge) and A10 (lean approaches for product and process management).
4.3 Comparison of the ICTs selected
Figure 7 shows a comparison between the ICTs identified by representatives from univer-
sity/research on one side and industry/consulting firms on the other.
One more time it can be seen a general coherence between the opinions of the two groups.
As an exception, T5 (software and hardware interfaces for the integration of different ICT
systems) and T7 (knowledge-based information systems), are still seen as significant issues by
industry and consulting, while this is less the case for academic people and researchers. However,
T3 (tracking device technologies for production and logistics processes) is perceived as a hotter
topic by researchers than by people from industry.
19

UNIVERSITY & RESEARCH INDUSTRY & CONSULTING
Driver % Driver %
D1 61.6% D1 70.2%
D2 54.8% D2 63.8%
D4 49.3% D3 51.1%
D5 46.6% D6 38.3%
D3 41.1% D7 34.0%
D6 35.6% D8 31.9%
D7 35.6% D9 29.8%
D11 30.1% D5 25.5%
D8 23.3% D4 25.5%
D10 21.9% D10 21.3%
D9 Less than 20% D11 Less than 20%
DRIVERS
Figure 5. Comparison of the drivers selected by academia/research and industry/consulting.
Attribute % Attribute %
A1 68.5% A1 70.2%
A3 50.7% A2 55.3%
A6 45.2% A4 48.9%
A2 43.8% A8 40.4%
A5 43.8% A3 38.3%
A9 38.4% A10 36.2%
A4 37.0% A5 34.0%
A7 32.9% A7 29.8%
A12 27.4% A11 25.5%
A11 24.7% A6 23.4%
A8 24.7% A9 Less than 20%
A10 21.9% A12 Less than 20%
ATTRIBUTES
Figure 6. Comparison of the attributes selected by academia/research and industry/consulting.
ICT % ICT %
T1 68.5% T2 63.8%
T3 61.6% T1 51.1%
T2 52.1% T5 46.8%
T4 38.4% T3 44.7%
T6 38.4% T7 42.6%
T8 30.1% T4 42.6%
T9 30.1% T8 36.2%
T7 27.4% T6 25.5%
T10 27.4% T9 25.5%
T5 26.0% T12 21.3%
T11 20.5% T11 Less than 20%
T13 Less than 20% T10 Less than 20%
T12 Less than 20% T13 Less than 20%
ICTs
Figure 7. Comparison of the ICTs selected by academia/research and industry/consulting.
20

5 FINDINGS
It is difficult to summarise in a few lines how ICT will shape the future competitive environment and
how it will impact on the future of manufacturing. Nevertheless, a few conclusions can be drawn:
From the customer perspective
ICT solutions will enable customers to get information and to purchase products and services
globally. Directly on the web through a PC, a pocket PC or a smart phone, customers will be able to
set up a unique product. The physical artefact will be surrounded by a set of services (maintenance,
assistance, loan plan, etc.) which will support customers along the entire lifecycle until the final
disposal. Frequently customers will not buy the physical product itself; instead they will directly
pay for the related service on a pay-per-use base.
From the manufacturing company perspective
Globalisation will lead to an aggressive competition coming from old and new actors and to a
general increase of market saturation. Finding new forms of competitive advantage will be difficult
for manufacturing enterprises.
Greater flexibility and re-configurability will be necessary to guarantee constant adherence to the
always-unsteady customer requirements. In parallel, lean approaches will have to be implemented,
aiming at a continuous improvement and innovation of direct and indirect processes.
Lifecycles of products and services of increased technological content and complexity will be
difficult to manage by a single enterprise, which will not own the competencies and the physical
resources needed to achieve competitiveness on a global scale. Manufacturing companies will
therefore collaborate in the framework of supply networks or virtual enterprises with rapid creation-
dissolution. The competition will then be on a network vs. network basis and on a global scale.
Different markets will require different industrial structures. Nevertheless, generally speaking,
networks will see the presence of large scale, highly automated and low-manned industrial sites
able to compete on costs, along side small dimension, highly flexible, re-configurable, low volume
and close-to-the-market plants designed for the delivery of personalised high add-value products
and services.
REFERENCES
Agility Forum, Leaders for Manufacturing, and Technologies Enabling Agile Manufacturing (1997),
“Next-Generation Manufacturing, A Framework for Action; Executive Overview”. Available at http://
www.agilityforum.com
R.E. Albright (2003), “Roadmapping Convergence”, Albright Strategy Group, LLC. Available at http://
www.albrightstrategy.com
C. Anderson & P. Bunce, CAM-I Next Generation Manufacturing Systems Program (2000), “Next Generation
Manufacturing Systems NGMS White Paper”. Available at http://cam-i.org/ngms.html
AUS Industry Science Council (2001), “Technology Planning for Business Competitiveness”, Emerging
Industries. Available at http://industry.gov.au/library/content_library/13_technology_road_mapping.pdf
CAM-I Next Generation Manufacturing Systems Program (2000), “NGMS-IMS project Phase II. Synergistic
Integration of Distributed Manufacturing and Enterprise Information. Reference Manual”. Available at
http://cam-i.org/ngms.html
Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (2004), “Manufacturing 20/20: Building Our Vision for the Future”.
Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (2004), “Manufacturing 20/20 – Update & Preliminary Report”.
CIMRU (P. Higgins, van Dongen, S., Kavanagh, A., Wall, B., Smyth, M. etc.) (2002), “Roadmapping: An
Overview”, Intelligent Manufacturing Systems. Available at http://www.ims-noe.org
Committee on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges; established by the National Research Council’s Board on
Manufacturing and Engineering Design (1998), “Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020”. Available
at http://www.nap.edu/html/visionary
da Fonseca, R.S.: “UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme” (2000), UNIDO. Available at http://
www.unido.org/foresight
21

Dreher, C. Armbruster, H., Schlrrmeister, E., Jung-Erceg, P.: “ManVis Report 2 – Preliminary Results from
the first Round of the ManVis Delphi Survey” (2005), Fraunhofer Institute for System and Innovation
Research.
European Commission (2003), “Working Document for the ManuFuture 2003 Conference”. Available at
http://www.manufuture.org
European Commission (2004), “ManuFuture: A Vision for 2020”. Available at http://europa.eu.int/comm/
research/industrial_technologies/manufuture/home_en.html
Foresight Manufacturing 2020 Panel Members (N. Scheele, A. Daly, M. Gregory, etc.) (2000), “UK
Manufacturing: We can make it better. Final Report Manufacturing 2020 Panel”. Available at
http://www.foresight.gov.uk/manu2020
FutMan Project (2003), “The Future of Manufacturing in Europe 2015-2020,The Challenge for Sustainability”,
Available at http://www.cordis.lu
Industry Canada, (2000) “Technology Roadmapping: A Guide for Government Employees”.
Integrated Manufacturing Technology Roadmapping (2000), “Integrated Manufacturing Technology
Roadmapping Project: An Overview of the IMTR Roadmaps”, Available at http://www.IMTI21.org
Integrated Manufacturing Technology Roadmapping (2000), “Manufacturing Success in the 21st Century: A
Strategic View”. Available at http://www.IMTI21.org
IMS-NoE website, www.ims-noe.org
ManuFuture, “ManuFuture: A Vision for 2020”, 2004.
ManVis, “Results from the ManVis first questionnaire”, 2005.
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology, National Institute of Science and Technology
Policy, “The Seventh Technology Foresight”(2001). Available at http://www.nistep.go.jp
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology: “White Paper on S&T Performance” (2002).
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Phall R. (2002), “Technology Roadmapping”, Centre for Technology Management, University of Cambridge,
United Kingdom
Planning Committee organized by Korean Government (2000), “Vision 2025: Korea’s Long-term Plan for
Science and Technology Development”. Available at http://www.most.go.kr
South Africa Manufacturing and Materials Working Group (2004), “Foresight Manufacturing Report”.
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Strategy to Address the Challenges to U.S. Manufacturers”. Available at http://www.nam.org
Vision Consortium (2003), “Information Societies Technology Programme: Final Version of Strategic
Roadmap”, Contract Number IST-2002-38513.
22

Manufacturing visions: A holistic view of the trends for European
manufacturing
Carsten Dreher
Fraunhofer Institute System and Innovation Research ISI, Department Industrial and Service Innovations,
Karlsruhe, Germany
ABSTRACT: This paper presents the main findings of the ManVis project (Manufacturing
Visions – Integrating Diverse Perspectives into Pan-European Foresight) in a very condensed
way in the form of hypotheses (a detailed overview on reports and results can be found on
www.manufacturing-visions.org). The paper investigates which technologies will be relevant for
the future of manufacturing and which role, visions, challenges, and needed actions, will emerge
for European manufacturing.
Keywords: ManVis, manufacturing visions, technology foresight, R&D policies.
1 INTRODUCTION
The specific support action Manufacturing Visions – Integrating Diverse Perspectives into Pan-
European Foresight (ManVis) (Contract No NMP2-CT-2003-507139) started in early 2004. Its
aim was to accompany the continuing policy process of enhancing European competitiveness in
manufacturingindustriesandtoincludeviewsofEuropeanmanufacturingexpertscollectedthrough
a Delphi survey as well as views of stakeholders and overseas experts collected at workshops and
in interviews. ManVis was an independently launched activity but has a supporting role in the
policy process assembled under the catchword ManuFuture as well. In the meantime, ManVis has
contributed to this process through presentations and inputs to ManuFuture and other conferences.
This paper presents the main findings in a very condensed way in the form of hypotheses (a detailed
overview on reports and results can be found on www.manufacturing-visions.org).
Asatoolforinitiatingfuture-orientedthinkingandtopromotethelinkingofsuchdiverseperspec-
tives, a pan-European Delphi survey dealing with manufacturing issues was launched. In several
workshops, manufacturing experts from all over Europe and overseas contributed to the shaping of
the survey. To avoid an isolated view of Europe’s manufacturing issues, experts from overseas were
involved in the development of the statements of the Delphi questionnaire and commented on the
results of the survey. Emphasising and elaborating the demand side perspective on manufacturing
was an important aim of this project. Because of this, the views of users, consumers and other soci-
etal groups concerned with manufacturing discussed the findings of the Delphi survey. In parallel
to the Delphi activities, scenarios on the development of the demand side of manufacturing were
elaborated.
Because of the complex structure of the questionnaire, covering various areas of expertise, not
all the 3112 experts completed it entirely, but chose to answer only those sections with which
they felt most comfortable. Each statement was answered by more than 1200 experts, allowing
a solid statistical analysis for all the statements. The median number of answers per statement
is 1332. Since no systematic differences have been discovered after the first round (for instance
with respect to expert origin, country etc.), it was considered risk-free to include all answers,
23

Input from previous Foresight Activities
Analysis, Assessment and Policy Recommendations
"European Manufacturing – Quo Vadis?"
Conference
Demand Side
Scenarios
Stakeholder
Groups
Overseas
Manufacturing
Experts
European
Manufacturing
Experts
Pan-EuropeanDelphi Surveyin 2 rounds
Figure 1. The ManVis Approach.
regardless of the number of statements each expert answered. For the second round, the team
decided on a modification in the methodology. Instead of repeating the questionnaire of the first
round, conflicting statements were regrouped and present jointly for re-consideration. In the second
round, 1359 experts participated. Generally, the results of the second round only partly changed
the results of the first round.
It is important to highlight the role of foresight exercises based on surveys and expectations
like Delphi studies, workshops, and expert interviews as a starting point or one of several inputs
to public debates on future developments. It does not replace other research or strategic planning
activities as for instance scenario building, patent data analysis or other technology assessment
methods nor interpretation of innovation indicators.
2 WHICH TECHNOLOGIES WILL BE RELEVANT FOR EUROPEAN
MANUFACTURING?
From the presented findings on technology and their dynamics in manufacturing, some messages
can be derived from ManVis:
• Micro electromechanical devices, smart materials, products using nano-coatings – in this timing
order – are representing long-term developments in a new type of products with a disruptive
character for markets. These product challenges offer an opportunity for strengthening compet-
itiveness, which can only be exploited if appropriate manufacturing equipment is available and
allowing the use of the technologies in new products. Hence, generic technology development
needs complementary manufacturing technology research involvement.
• Such new manufacturing technology principles as bottom-up manufacturing technologies are
only expected in the long run. Manufacturing technologies using biotechnologies for creating
and manipulating inorganic material and products such as nano-manufacturing should also be
on the long-term radar of RTD-policy.
• Micro electromechanical systems (here a European advantage in R&D is seen by the experts)
as well as flexible organisation and automation strategies combined e.g. in re-configurable
manufacturing systems supporting flexible business strategies are important for the short-term
24

research agenda. However, the people-less factory still receives a sceptical assessment by the
experts. Humans working with flexible automation solutions in the near future will still play an
important role in creating the flexibility. Experts expect therefore, people working with flexible
automation technologies instead of a people-less factory.
• Only long-term automation visions comprise new ways of interactions between machines and
humans such as human-machine interfaces, human-machine speech recognition, self-learning
systems, and co-bots.
These issues underline the need for research on industrial adoption and innovation management
practicesinmanufacturingindustriesandintensivecommunicationandfurtherdebateoftheManVis
results.
The development of new generic technologies and knowledge, challenges manufacturing
research in two ways. First, it creates a need for manufacturing processes to produce the new
products and provide the new services. Secondly, these new technologies and knowledge have to
be integrated into the production processes themselves. Basic manufacturing researchhas to foresee
and prepare for the new challenges, and applied manufacturing research has to adapt and transform
existing technologies and organisational processes. Furthermore, manufacturing research plays a
decisive role in combining the long-term horizon in technology trajectories with the short-term
need of firms to innovate successfully. This requires a good timing of research activities to have
solutions and tools ready for industrial adoption.
Considering these functions of manufacturing research, the ManVis messages on technology can
be discussed using the presented concept of the combined science-technology cycle on innovation
presented in ManVis Report No. 3. Four groups of technologies were discussed in several ManVis-
statements:
• bottom-up manufacturing technologies (bio- or nano-processes)
• advanced materials
• micro systems technologies
• information and communication technologies.
For these technologies, the experts expressed different time horizons for realisation. Activities
for basic and applied research have to be performed in advance (approximately 10–15 years for
basic research, 5–10 years for applied research).
ICT will still play the decisive role in the short-term perspective in manufacturing operations,
but only if the human–machine interaction is considered properly because the people-less factory
is not foreseen in the future. Using the assessment and referring to existing diffusion studies, ICT
use in manufacturing is in phase 6, where application oriented industrial research is predominant.
Therefore, attacking dominant designs with new solutions, e. g. in simulation of processes and the
product lifecycle, could be very costly and may have a lower success rate than developing solutions
in more open fields. Hence, some mapping information on simulation solutions seems necessary
for better-informed decisions.
As outlined by stakeholder assessments and the evaluation of the experts, ICT can play a crucial
role for customisation. Software and ICT-components incorporated into products for customisation
are important for product innovation.As said before, accompanying research on social and business
impacts and standards (development and enforcement) should be important supporting elements
in a public research strategy.
Micro systems (together with intelligent controls) are key enablers for plug-and-produce sys-
tems aiming at more flexible manufacturing systems as well as for process integration into
multi-functional machinery. For this second technology, the necessary link from developing new
machinery to creating new business models (although not emphasised by the experts) could be
crucial as well as research bringing together equipment suppliers and users. This represents phase
4/5 as the most important stage of defining and setting dominant designs. The ManVis experts
see Europe in an advantageous position (i.e. in some lead user industries such as automotive and
medical equipment) and at the forefront. Industrial research is the main driver now. To be very
25

level of
activity
time
discovery
and
exploration
euphoria disillusion reorien-
tation
rise diffusion
science
push
demand
pull
1
2
3
4
6
5
Nano-/bio-
manufacturing
Advanced
materials
Rapid
technologies
MEMS
ICT in
manufacturing
scope of
activities
Figure 2. Manufacturing related technologies on the Science-Technology Cycle for macro-innovations.
precise: Micro Electronic Mechanical Systems (MEMS) are not a basic research topic (and maybe
because of that a little bit out of focus of the public attention) but are on the verge of a take-off in
industrial use. It is important to maintain the existing advantages and exploit the commercialisation
for the benefit of European manufacturing (Bierhals, R., Cuhls, C., et al. 2000).
For advanced materials, the problem of making the processing and manipulation of new mate-
rials feasible and (more importantly) competitive has already been identified as an important
research topic by the FutMan study, i.e. smart materials and rapid technologies are in phases 3
to 4 representing a selection process and the search for breakthrough applications. These phases
are characterised by search processes to assess and exclude non-viable options. It is a sobering
phase of applied research in the concerned sciences and in engineering. Here, collective research
efforts combining the related sciences, engineering and lead industries are helpful in bridging this
period. The ManVis experts give a time horizon that leaves enough space for catching up in the
R&D position that is considered lagging for the moment.
The new catchwords representing bottom-up manufacturing are in the middle of the first boom
in the science cycle, close to euphoria (phase 2). The ManVis experts see the development as
important for manufacturing but only on a very long-term horizon. Hence, basic research on nano-
or biotechnology has to be carefully monitored for emerging manufacturing research topics. In
addition, cross cutting manufacturing research issues like measurement, workplace safety of nano-
or bio-based processes etc. may facilitate the basic research activities in other fields of nano- and
biotechnology. A screening or roadmapping activity on nano-manufacturing connected to product
roadmaps using nano-technology is useful to prevent an overlooking of possibilities. An additional
action is the analysis of linking micro systems technologies with nano-based technology using
existing advantages in micro systems to facilitate faster diffusion of nano-technologies.
The analysis in different sectors confirmed these views of the experts on the technologies, but
is varying in the time horizon (cf. ManVis Report No. 3).
The ManVis experts see that e.g. ICT use in manufacturing and product development operations
will be a driving element in traditional industries whereas in other sectors it will not play such
an eminent role in operations and production technologies. More important is the role of ICT
in customisation of products and product-service combinations. New materials may play a more
26

prominent role in the sector of fabricated metal products. In machinery, MEMS are predominantly
seen for the next steps; i.e. in self-adapting systems as part of advanced machine tools. The car
industry (mostly seen as a lead user for many technologies) is facing the challenge to master two
more engine concepts (hybrid and fuel cells) parallel to the optimisation of the combustion engines.
The ManVis experts do not prioritise one single option but the impacts on other industries could
be dramatic.
This analysis is based on the ManVis experts’ views and on secondary material. It could be
useful to validate certain areas by using specialised innovation indicators (publications, patents,
and diffusion data) in targeted foresight and forecast studies.
3 WHICH ROLE WILL EUROPEAN MANUFACTURING PLAY IN A MORE
COMPETITIVE WORLD?
Probably the currently most debated international aspect of industry policy and a question on every-
body’s mind is the relocation of industry and jobs to other regions. During the last decade, upswings
in the economy have not – as previously was the rule – been followed by expansions of employ-
ment in industry. Improved productivity seems to give the ability to respond to market expansion
without any increase of staff. In the US, the economy is growing owing to the profits made on low
price imports from China, new developments in the retail business sector, and because of a labour
intensive upswing in the construction industry. The increases in productivity combined with the
accessibility to very cheap labour in the expanding economies inAsia place industrial jobs in Europe
under pressure. In most people’s minds, outsourcing is making Europe lose lots of industrial jobs.
Relocation of industry, usually discussed as outsourcing, is in reality several structural changes
coinciding in time, inside and across the borders of European Union. To make the discussion
useful, it is necessary to consider distinctions between the different types of relocation. Off-shoring
means the movement of industry (production) to low wage regions to reduce the pure labour cost
per unit produced, i.e. for commodities. Outsourcing is understood as buying parts or services
from suppliers, mainly to improve the economies of scale for the intellectual part of a product.
Outsourcing is common within a country or a region, and is a normal way to achieve industrial
improvement. When Europe starts to outsource to other regions, the movement is a bigger threat
than off-shoring, because the creation of the intellectual capital is moved, and by that the more
advanced jobs are lost.
Concerningrelocationitself, thereisontheonehandtherelocationofproductiontolocationsnear
the consumers. With a rapid expansion of the product variants, it is increasingly efficient to locate
production closer to the market to avoid long delivery times and a growing stock of finished goods
in the market chain. On the other hand, there is relocation of innovative production and development
close to lead-markets. This is a way to detect signals from the most demanding customers. This
change of industry structure ought to be favourable for Europe, since the high living standard is
creating demanding customers. Some of the Asian car manufacturers have recently announced
openings of new production plants in Europe.
From the definitions above, it can be seen that off-shoring is driven by pure cost reductions, while
the other forms of relocation are driven by a need to improve the speed of innovation (cf. Figure 3).
The current competitors for Europe in the field of cost are China and India, and in the area
of innovation, the US and Japan, which is also verified by the ManVis Experts when studying
the appreciation of relative research positions. With the ambitions shown by China and India to
expand their research and education, these circumstances might change and in the foreseeable
future competition for innovation might be seen also from these countries. The answers from the
ManVis experts are not altogether conclusive in the timeframe for the effects of relocations and
some contradictions in the answers on related statements can also be seen:
• The ManVis experts are convinced that the traditional sectors will be subject to high levels of
off-shoring
27

Labour cost competition for
commodities
Improving economy of scale for
parts of the product
Time based competition for fast
changing products or adaption
to many variants
Catching signals from the most
demanding customers (lead
market)
Offshoring
Outsourcing
Relocation
closer to
markets
Relocation
closest to
customers
Figure 3. Patterns of relocation.
• Despite a strong belief in the future development of successful automation in the tradi-
tional sectors, 80% of the industry is expected to relocate outside Europe in the foreseeable
future.
• The ManVis experts are not consistent in their opinions, but the general impression is that more
jobs in manufacturing will be relocated to other regions, as long as the relative differences in
cost levels remain.
Given their fast rate of growth, it cannot be taken for granted that India and China will remain
low wage regions for qualified work, since both show aggressive ambitions to grow into heavily
industrialised regions on a much more sophisticated level, competing on innovation as well.
On balance, can low cost labour competition be expected to remain on the current level? The
ManVis experts were asked for a number of possible reasons that could alter the balance between
low cost, far away producers, and high cost producers near to market. Most experts believe in
the statements pointing to a reduced difference. The possible conclusion is that in the foreseeable
future all these factors in combination will ease off the worst levels of competition. Production will
be more automated owing to a gradual development of more cost-effective automation equipment.
Wages will go up in China and India, and since they are the most populous regions in the world,
Morgan Stanley estimates that they will have a per capita income on par with the global average
within two decades, so any new low cost regions entering the arena will not have a comparable
impact. Product development will shrink the direct labour content in products even further. Maybe
off-shoring for cost reasons is a temporary phase after all? Perhaps this development will continue
at such a speed that the low wage profile for qualified personnel will come to an end in these parts
of the world sooner than expected.
In looking outside of the European Union, it was decided to provide comments from three coun-
tries by additional expert interviews – the United States, Japan and China as obvious competitors
and as key countries in the development of manufacturing (cf. ManVis Report No. 4). The common
theme in each of the countries appears to be uncertainty. In the United States this is an uncertainty
on whether manufacturing will remain a vibrant part of the economy, in Japan it is whether they can
revitalise the manufacturing sector, and in China whether the rapid growth of manufacturing can be
managed effectively. There are issues which are more individual, and these may turn out to be the
most important, but the divergence of how manufacturing is perceived is crucial to understanding
the probable future trajectories in each country. Uncertainty over China’s global role is obviously
a core issue across all three countries as China continues to expand its trade and moves into higher
value activities.
28

Within each country there are distinct top-level issues in the debates:
• China’s main concerns are managing growth and ensuring that power and infrastructure are in
place to support this growth. Another issue is re-balancing the economy with services. China
is encouraging the establishment of R&D activities, both Chinese public funding of R&D and
international private R&D, and this is challenging the developed economies perceptions of what
activities they will remain competitive in and retain.
• Japan’s main concerns are revitalising manufacturing and combating high wage rates and chang-
ing demographics with increased emphasis on production technology and automation. At the
same time, Japan is strengthening its position in key manufacturing technologies – particularly
in emerging industries – creating further tension between the Japanese movement of production
to China and their desire to lead in these new areas.
• In the US, rising costs of doing business (especially healthcare) and concerns about outsourcing
are dominating, but with widely divergent views within the country about whether it matters.
The continued pressure on US manufacturers to outsource and off-shore their manufacturing
activities is leading to an emerging sense of protectionism. It is possible that barriers to such
movements will emerge, depending on how threatening the developments are perceived to be
by the American public and the political establishment.
ManVis results confirm the anxiety about the migration of European manufacturing.This anxiety
is more often indicated by the experts from old Member States which is not surprising if the present
structure and directions of intra-European Union foreign direct investment flows (New Member
States and Candidate Countries migrate mainly low- and medium-technology industries and related
sectors) are considered, and the nature of comparative advantages, which are possessed by new and
prospective members of the European Union.
Considering these additional views, off-shoring and outsourcing are structural changes which
are high on the importance ranking by the ManVis experts. Owing to the far gone development
of well defined and documented procedures, in the views of the experts it will become easier to
relocate industries and manufacturing plants in particular. Companies which are late in reducing
the dependence of local knowledge on the production locations are instead more likely to outsource
significant parts of the operation.
When analysing the answers the ManVis experts gave on regional leadership in different research
and development areas, a clear pattern emerges. The fields that Europe is seen as the leader in are
all issues concerning environmental protection and sustainability. Japan leads in most issues on
production and the US in most issues on new technology. Although the estimated position in
research, expressed by a relatively small selection of experts, should not be exaggerated in value,
the question arises if Europe could do more to attract global industries to locate future core functions
to Europe.
Production itself is becoming decreasingly a focal part of the industrial operation, while the
connection to the customer and the interoperation with the customer to constitute an agile value
chain, able to move closer to mass customisation, is growing in importance. The agile company
must embrace many and frequent product changes as well as numerous models and options, thus
leading to a need for very efficient changeover procedures. As representative evidence, the ManVis
experts expect the development time for cars to be reduced to six months within ten years, e.g.
Ford has recently reduced the development time to 18 months, and is aiming for 10 months. The
whole innovation system of a firm, understood as product development, production, services and
logistics, will be the core of a firm’s global competitiveness.
4 WHICH VISIONS, CHALLENGES, AND NEEDED ACTIONS EMERGE FOR
EUROPEAN MANUFACTURING?
ManVis had to explore the ambitions and expectations of manufacturing experts throughout Europe
and reflect them with societal stakeholders and overseas views. During this exercise, diverse, and
29

Pro -
active
Re-
active
Time
?
?
?
Pro -
active
Re-
active Re-organising
the supply chains
Localised
manufacturing
clusters
High end,
world class
manufacturing
Eco-sustainable
manufacturing
Firm innovation
system competition on
lead markets and social
systems innovation
?
?
?
Figure 4. The ManVis trajectories for Manufacturing of Tomorrow.
sometimes conflicting views emerged showing the scope and complexity of present and future
manufacturing. The main difficulty of this policy paper is to bridge between the generalist views
and the mass of details available in the various reports and databases. This part of the paper attempts
to summarise the findings and views. It condenses them into several visions and discusses their
impacts as well as the main challenges lying ahead.This should lay the ground for the recommended
actions.
In particular, several trajectories for developments of the manufacturing of tomorrow emerge
from the ManVis findings:
• The struggle on labour cost competition will prevail in the next years. There are two dimensions:
the loss of operations to countries outside the European Union and the movement within the
European Union. The strategies emerging from the ManVis expert consultation are mainly reac-
tive, i.e. cost reduction through automation and enhanced labour productivity. The New Member
States will exploit in the very near future an existing cost advantage but will lose it faster then
competitors outside Europe. Without their own innovative capacity for absorption and enhance-
ment, this foreign direct investment will just pass through these Member States in a decade.
However, both developments are characterised by losses of employment in manufacturing and,
of course, retreat from markets.
• Local manufacturing operations and local R&D excellence – as general options – are reactive
patterns as well. Very often based on concepts originating from the sustainable development
debate this vision is characterised by local operations and development based upon very close
interaction with local users – who still have to have purchasing power.The consulted manufactur-
ing experts were quite sceptical on the prospects of this option because of their assessments on the
weak ties of modern manufacturing into its environment, contrary to the consulted stakeholders’
representatives who value this concept as feasible and competitive.
• Eco-sustainable manufacturing based on new products, new materials, energy efficiency, and
last but not least, on advanced product-service systems could be developed into a competitive
advantageforEurope–intheviewofexpertsandstakeholders. Regulationscreatingatechnology
pull, e.g. as outlined in the FutMan policy scenarios could be successfully mastered because of
the excellent R&D position in this field.
• High-end manufacturing will be based on the efficient use of sophisticated manufacturing tech-
nologies, which will enable world class, highly automated operations for new products. This
high ambition requires an exploitation of the expected potentials for micro electromechanical
30

systems, related nano-technologies, closing gaps in automation, and research on manufacturing
with new materials. But this high efficiency approach will reduce or only maintain existing
employment in European manufacturing.
• The most ambitious and far-reaching vision is the European best practice in competing all over
the firms innovation system. This comprises user interaction, product development, production,
supply chain, and logistics. The successful mastering of this system is considered the most
promising way to ensure long-term competitiveness. To achieve that, two main crucial elements
have to be realised:
– innovative and adaptive lead markets have to give European companies the chance to be the
first to learn, and
– they have effective user/customer interaction mechanism to exploit this advantage.
These different visions or perceptions of trajectories are not independent from one another nor
do they emerge in the same time period. Today, the struggle for labour cost competition dominates
the debate, although several European big and small firms are successfully performing the high
end manufacturing in their markets. The restructuring of the supply chains enables in the New
Member States the establishment of new operations but does not yet ensure a real long-term impact
on their innovation system. If the New Member States are not developing their own innovative and
absorptive capacities very soon, the labour cost advantage will disappear – and with that the newly
erected plants.
The scenario analysis by the IPTS furthermore indicates that in many respects advanced solutions
are likely to emerge from a local level. For policy making, this implies that it could be useful to
support such local model approaches to then be able to systematically foster their transfer and
adaptation to other conditions. But contrary to that, global competition in the view of the ManVis
experts requires global presence. Hence, the European Union’s cluster oriented innovation policy
could develop such needed islands in the New Member States. But this strategy will remain reactive
considering global competition as long as it is not connected to newly created market opportunities.
High-end manufacturing will not – in the view of the consulted experts – create new employ-
ment but safeguard existing jobs. Further, it is a necessary condition for the more advanced and
employment creating trajectories. For example, a successful and economically prevailing strategy
on eco-sustainability requires high technology and professional organisation of product-service
concepts.
The drivers for approaching competition based on the firm’s system of innovation are lead mar-
kets. Innovation and adaptation take place where the demanding customers are. New lead markets
attracting new companies have to emerge in Europe. To achieve this, besides new technologies and
excellent products and operations, changes and social innovations are necessary to create the new
demands and to allow firms to operate successfully.
To move along the different paths and create employment severe challenges can be concluded
which have to be mastered:
• creating manufacturing based on sophisticated technology,
• developing knowledge-based and learning companies and industries,
• competing through the firms individual innovation systems,
• re-defining and innovating demand,
• keeping Europe economically united.
To master the challenges, several types of actions are recommended (cf. Figure 5).
• An advanced science and research base for manufacturing and engineering as basic conditions,
• excellent R&D projects (collective or academic) on manufacturing issues as core activities which
bring forward manufacturing excellence,
• accompanying measures and research facilitating change and innovation,
• enhanced funding mechanisms to match the challenges in a more appropriate way,
• establishing diffusion policies for manufacturing technologies and best practices,
31

Manufacturing engineering science and research base
Enhancing funding
mechanisms
Manufacturing
R+D projects
Accompanying
measures
Linking to
innovation policies
Technology diffusion
policies
Harmonising policies
for manufacturing
Transforming societal requirements into lead markets
Innovation
policies
R+D
policies
Figure 5. Elements of policies for knowledge-based manufacturing.
Table 1. Imminent technological research needs.
Paving the way for new technologies in manufacturing
• roadmapping and foresight on manufacturing relevance of nano- and (white) biotechnology
• measurement, workplace safety for nano-technology and biotechnology
• applied basic research for white biotechnology and nano-manufacturing
Industrialising technologies
• processing and manipulation of new materials
• incorporating smart materials into components for process technologies
• combining new materials with micro electrical mechanical systems (adaptronic)
• exploring new modelling knowledge and high power computing for simulation of product
development, of material behaviour, and of virtual experiments
Exploiting existing technology advantages
• micro-systems in machine tools and products
• intelligent mechatronic systems for automation and robotics (e.g. self adapting components)
• new automation technologies considering advanced human-machine interaction by considering
diverse workers capabilities
• ICT-tools for traditional sectors
Technologies for customising products/services
• Tagging technologies
• Approaches towards product customisation via software or electronic components that allow
for maximum flexibility and user integration
• Technologies and concepts facilitating user integration into innovation processes
• Technologies and concepts facilitating personalisation and build to order concepts
• SME appropriate tools for networks and logistics
• linking manufacturing R&D policies to innovation policies,
• harmonise and re-directing various policies with impact on manufacturing towards innovation
and competition of firm systems of innovation,
• transforming societal requirements into lead markets.
Through research on technologies for manufacturing and on organisation and management,
manufacturing research provides manufacturing engineering with the necessary knowledge, tools,
and solutions. Basic manufacturing research has to foresee and prepare for the new challenges and
applied manufacturing research has to adapt and transform existing technologies and organisational
32

processes. Furthermore, manufacturing research plays a decisive role in combining the long-term
horizon in technology trajectories with the short-term need of firms to innovate successfully.
Even for practical and industrial manufacturing research the science base is of growing impor-
tance. The inclusion of manufacturing topics and issues into the funding mechanism of the planned
European Science Council is of crucial importance. Other existing mechanisms on transfer and
mobility of researchers have to be maintained as well as international co-operation.
Excellent research projects in manufacturing are needed. It is important to notice not to concen-
trate on technological developments only but the whole system of innovation in the firms has to be
considered. This implies tools, strategies, methods, procedures etc. for product development, logis-
tics, innovation management, business concepts, etc. have to be added to the technological research
agenda. The main barrier towards more proactive strategies lies in the successfully implementation
of learning companies which can adapt their innovation system fast.
Harmonising policies for manufacturing is something which has started already (cf. KOM (2005)
474). But as mentioned above, the relationship between research issues and topics for manufac-
turing engineering and has to be in two directions; e.g. developing policy support for new ways
of biotechnology based production (white biotech), or what should workplace safety for nano-
technology workers look like, or how to ensure product reliability through simulation tests. These
cross cutting issues require parallel and co-ordinated activities to adapt sector-based innovation
systems in the concerned fields as quickly as possible. In addition, education and training policies
have to consider the needs for learning firms, i.e. foster in-house activities much more than external
institutions. It will be in the firms where the struggle for a competitive corporate innovation system
is decided.
This harmonised policy approach is necessary if societal requirements and existing competencies
should converge into a lead market. First mover advantages can only be obtained if quick and
decisive moves in demand shaping and competence building are made. To be successful, a thorough
analysis of long-term demand and interactive participation of stakeholders and users is decisive for
policymakers and industry. Hence, while closing the loop, exercising these practices in the R&D
projects and efforts becomes of crucial importance.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This work was funded by the European Commission through NMP Project ManufacturingVisions –
Integrating Diverse Perspectives into Pan-European Foresight (ManVis) (Contract No NMP2-
CT-2003-507139). The author wishes to acknowledge the contributions from Heidi Armbruster,
Maurits Butter, Gerald Jan Ellen, Petra Jung-Erceg, Per Kilbo, Finbarr Livesey, Krsto Pandza,
Bogdan Piasecki, Anna Rogut, Fabiana Scapolo, Jan Sjögren, and Philine Warnke.
REFERENCES
Bierhals, R., Cuhls, C., et al. (2000): Mikrosystemtechnik – Wann kommt der Marktdurchbruch? –
Miniaturisierungsstrategien imTechnologiewettbewerb zwischen USA, Japan und Deutschland, Heidelberg
KOM(2005)474: Umsetzung des Lissabon-Programms der Gemeinschaft: Ein politischer Rahmen zur
Stärkung des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes in der EU – Auf dem Weg zu einem stärker integrierten Konzept
für die Industriepolitik; (5.10.2005)
ManVis Report No.3 – Delphi Interpretation Report, October 2005 (www.manufacturing-visions.org)
ManVis Report No. 4 – Overseas Views: International Perspectives on the Future of Manufacturing, October
2005 (www.manufacturing-visions.org)
33

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enempää koko asiaa keneltäkään kysymästä. Ja kun Hakalan
Pauliina pian muutti maalle, niin ei siitä asiasta puhuttu enää sen
enempää. Sitten tuli pitkä kesä ja Heikki ennätti maalla unhoittaa
koko talon väen, melkeinpä Ahosen Jannenkin.
Eräänä syyskuun aamuna, juuri kun Heikki oli kouluun lähdössä
ryntäsi Hilda hengästyneenä ruokasaliin ja suurella kohinalla kertoi,
että Ahosen Janne oli vangittu. Äiti pudisti vihaisena päätään, nousi
pöydästä ja seurasi Hildaa kyökkiin. Hilda nähtävästi loukkaantui,
kun hänen uutisensa otettiin nuhdelleen vastaan, sillä hän kuului
kovalla äänellä sanovan: "mitä rouva tuosta pojastaan oikein
koettaakaan, — niinkuin se ei siitä muualtakin saisi kuulla". Samassa
palasi äiti kyökistä ja sanoi vielä ovelta Hildalle, ettei koskaan saisi
sillä tavalla ihmisiä säikäyttää.
Myöhemmin sai Heikki kuulla, että Janne oli joissakin tanssiaisissa
riitaantunut ja lyönyt erästä toista miestä puukolla, niin että tämä oli
vähissä hengin. Sen johdosta oli Janne vangittu ja kaikki sanoivat,
että hänet vietäisiin linnaan. — Rödman sanoi ettei semmoinen asia
miehen papinkirjassa merkinnyt juuri mitään, kun kerran toinenkin
oli puukkonsa paljastanut, niin tuskinpa siitä Jannelle seuraisi muuta
kuin parin kolmen kuukauden "istuminen". Mutta Ahoskan silmät
olivat alituiseen punaiset, kun hänet joskus vilaukselta näki kaivolla.
Ja kun Ahonen iltahämärässä tuli kotiin, niin ei hän katsonut
kehenkään ja hän näytti niin väsyneeltä ja vanhalta. — Silloin ajatteli
Heikki, että Jumala oli sentään ihmeellisen kova, kun hän oli antanut
Ahosen pikkupojan joutua maalaisen rattaitten alle, vaikka hän kyllä
jo silloin tiesi, että Jannellekin kerran näin kävisi. Ahosilla olisi nyt
edes hänestä iloa ollut, kun Jännekään ei enää iltasin tullut kotiin. —
Mutta äiti sanoi vaan, että kenties heistä oli hauskempaa ajatella,

että pikkupoika oli päässyt pois, kun Jannestakin oli niin merkillisen
hurja poika tullut, vaikka vanhemmat olivat tavallisia kunnon ihmisiä.
Eräänä iltapäivänä, kun Heikki palasi koulusta, seisoi suuri joukko
heidän talon väkeä Sundbergin kulmassa. Lähemmäksi tultuaan sai
hän kuulla, että he olivat siinä katselemassa kun vankeja asemalle
vietäisiin, ja että tänään vietäisiin kai Ahosen Jannekin. Heikki oli
kahden vaiheella uskaltaisiko hän jäädä siihen odottelemaan, mutta
samassa odotetut jo tulivatkin, keskellä katua käyden. Kylmät väreet
karmivat Heikin selkäpiitä, kun hän näki Ahosen Jannen kulkevan
vartijain välissä, erään toisen vangin rinnalla, toisesta kädestään
käsiraudalla toveriinsa kytkettynä. Janne ei katsonut keneenkään,
vaan huulet yhteen puristettuina ja vakavan näköisenä jatkoi
matkaansa.
— Voi surkeutta sentään, sanoi joku akoista, tuossa Jannessakin
on kokoa ja näköä, mutta eipäs vaan ole miehen tapoja.
— Ei ole, myönteli joku toinen. Mutta sitä poikaa ovat myöskin
viina ja naiset alusta aikain viipottaneet. —
— Ja Hakalan Pauliinalla kun kuuluu juuri muutaman päivän vanha
poika olevan, sanoi kolmas.
— Voi surkeutta sentään…
Heikki tuli kotiin ääneensä itkien. Äiti koetti parhaansa mukaan
häntä lohduttaa… mutta eihän Jannen asia siitä parantunut… Koko
päivän painoi häntä Jannen onnettomuus. Ja vielä illallakin hän oli
aivan elävästi näkevinään Jannen menevän vartiainsa välissä,
ranteesta käsiraudalla toiseen kytkettynä. Kun äiti tuli iltarukousta
lukemaan, niin Heikki luki sen tyynesti hänen kanssaan, eikä sen

jälkeen kysellyt mitään äidiltä, eikä tahtonut edes Jumalaa ajatella
sen enempää… Hän tuntui niin kaukaiselta suurelta ja ankaralta.
Heikki veti peitteen korviinsa ja ajatteli Ahosta ja Ahoskaa, jotka sillä
hetkellä varmaankin istuivat pienen pöytälampun valaisemassa
huoneessaan ja ajattelivat Jannea niinkuin hänkin… Tänä iltana hän
olisi tahtonut olla heidän pikkupoikansa ja olla heille oikein hyvä…
Sen jälkeen muuttui elämä heidän talossaan pitkiksi aikoja hyvin
hiljaiseksi. Äiti puhui usein hyvillään, että nyt hänen talossaan asui
vaan kunnon ihmisiä, sillä tehtaan tytötkin olivat Jannen mentyä
kokonaan lakanneet pihalla keikkumasta. Loma-aikoinaan veisasivat
he kamarissaan "Sionin kanteleesta" tai sitä kauhean pitkää laulua
Maria Stuartista. Ja pastorska Sandmanista ja vaakamestari
Lundströmistä ei koskaan ennenkään oltu sanottu muuta kun
pelkkää hyvää.
Mutta Heikki ajatteli usein, että koko elämä oli talossa nyt paljon
ikävämpää kuin silloin, kun kaikki ihmiset alinomaa olivat puhuneet
Hulda Martolasta ja Ahosen Jannesta.
4.
Jumala…
Aikaisimmassa lapsuudessaan Heikki oli tavallisesti ajatellut
Jumalaa iltasin, sängyssään odotellessaan äitiään lukemaan
iltarukousta.

Talvi-iltoina paloi ruokasalissa pöydän yläpuolella suuri lamppu,
jonka valovirta tulvasi avonaisesta ovesta Heikin huoneeseen, josta
palvelijatar sammutti lampun heti, kun Heikki oli iltapesunsa jälkeen
sänkyyn suoriutunut. — Hänestä oli miellyttävää maata siinä
lämpimässä sängyssään, valohämyisessä huoneessa, ajatellen äitiä
ja ajatellen Jumalaa, ja kaikkea mitä hänestä taas äidiltä kysyisi.
Päivän kuluessa hän oli useimmiten nähnyt ja kuullut paljon sellaista,
johon Jumalan suhtautuminen herätti mielessä monia kysymyksiä.
Kun äiti sitten tuli, lukivat he yhdessä pienen iltarukouksen ja äiti
istui hetkiseksi juttelemaan hänen sänkynsä laidalle. Osasihan äiti
vastata mitä ihmeellisimpiinkin kysymyksiin, mutta sittenkin jäi
paljon hämäräksi. Joskus tuskastui Heikki kyyneliin saakka, mutta
silloin äiti suuteli häntä, kääri peitteen huolellisesti hänen
ympärillensä ja sanoi, että suureksi tultuaan Heikki kyllä
ymmärtäisi… Mutta se ei oikeastaan ollut mikään lohdutus, sillä
olihan äiti usein sanonut, että Jumalaa ei kukaan koskaan voinut
täydellisesti ymmärtää. Ja kuinka saattaisikaan koskaan toivoa
ymmärtävänsä jotakin, joka oli aina ollut ja joka aina tulisi olemaan,
rajatonta, ääretöntä, kaikkialla olevaa… Se kaikki oli niin
käsittämätöntä ja melkein kauhistavaa. Jos jollakin tavalla Heikki oli
koettanut kiertää äitiä myöntämään, että tähtien takana tulisi jokin
seinä eteen. Mutta sitä ei äiti koskaan myöntänyt, enempää kuin
sitäkään, että mikään loppuisi. Sängyssäänkin näistä ajatellessaan
tunsi Heikki samanlaista kummallista tunnetta kuin ensikerran
katsoessaan heidän vinttinsä akkunasta kadulle…
Jumala on rakkaus… ääretön rakkaus… niin oli äiti Jumalasta
sanonut siitä saakka, kun Heikki muisti. Aluksi se oli häntä
tyydyttänytkin. Kauniina öinä oli äidillä tapana poistuessaan vetää
akkunaverhot syrjään, niin että Heikki vuodettansa vastapäätä

olevasta akkunasta näki tähtitaivaan. Ja hänestä oli turvallista ja
viihdyttävää raukeilla silmillään katsella tähtiä, jotka vilkkuivat siellä
kaukana, jossa Jumala oikeastaan asui, vaikka hän saattoikin olla
kaikkialla. Heikkikin rakasti häntä, sillä olihan hän niin äärettömän
hyvä, rakastaessaan ihmisiä enemmän kuin heidän omat isänsä ja
äitinsä.
Kuitenkin oli hänen viimeinen ajatuksensa monen monena iltana,
että kumpahan sentään tähtien takana olisi jokin katto tai seinä, ja
että Jumalakin joskus kuolisi ja taivas lakkaisi olemasta…
Kerran yöllä oli Heikki nähnyt pahaa unta ja pelästyneenä juossut
viereiseen huoneeseen, jossa hänen äitinsä nukkui. Mutta äiti ei
nukkunutkaan, vaan puoleksi pukeutuneena itki, pöytää vasten
nojaten. Heikki ei kysynyt mitään, vaan hänkin yltyi hillittömästi
itkemään. Äiti otti hänet syliinsä ja koetti tyynnyttää häntä, mutta
Heikki itki pakahtuaksensa. Hän tajusi nyt ensikerran, että jokin suuri
onnettomuus painosti äitiä, onnettomuus, johon ei mikään ikuinen
rakkaus näyttänyt lohtua luovan. Selittämättömillä lapsen vaistoillaan
näki hän kyynelten pusertajana elämän kovuuden… ja se oli hänen
pahaa untansakin pahempaa.
Äiti vei hänet uudestaan sänkyyn ja viihdyttääksensä Heikkiä aikoi
hän vetää akkunaverhot syrjään, sillä ulkona näytti kuu valaisevan.
Mutta Heikki hypähti kauhistuneena pystyyn. Ei, ei, nyt ei hän
tahtonut nähdä tähtiä, ei taivasta, eikä Jumalaa… Hän ei sanonut
mitään, vaan pyysi äitiä vetämään akkunaverhot kiinni, veti peitteen
korvillensa ja vihdoin nukkui nyyhkytykseensä.
Sen jälkeen tiesi Heikki, että äiti usein öisin itkien valvoi. Kun hän
joskus keskellä yötä heräsi, niin äidin huoneesta näkyi tulta ja Heikki
kuuli hänen hiljaa itkevän. — Mitä hän itki? Sitäkö että isä oli

kuollut? Miksikä olikaan hänen isänsä kuollut? Äiti sanoi, että Jumala
antoi jokaiselle töittensä jälkeen, — mutta Hellforsin Väinö ja
Sandströmin Kalle olivat varmasti paljon pahempia kuin hän, ja
heidän isänsä olivat juoppoja maalareita… ja heidän äitinsä torailivat
pihalla. Miksi siis oli hänen isänsä, joka oli ollut maisteri ja opettaja,
täytynyt kuolla jos kerran Jumala oli rakkaus ja antoi jokaiselle
töittensä mukaan…
Heikki kyseli äidiltään uudestaan ja uudestaan, mutta hänen
vastauksensa olivat lopullisesti aina samoja: ihminen ei näe mitä
Jumala näkee, mutta kuitenkin hän on rakkaus ja vain rakkaus ohjaa
hänen tekojansa.
Sinä kesänä, jona Heikki täytti kahdeksan vuotta, asui hän äitinsä
kanssa erään kaukaisen sukulaisen luona keski-Suomessa.
Mikä se olikaan, joka siellä sai hänet ajattelemaan Jumalaa
enemmän kuin koskaan ennen? Oliko se alituisesti vaihteleva ulappa,
joka melkein rannattomana näkyi hänen akkunaansa, milloin valkeita
jättiläispilviä kuvastellen, milloin laukkavia vaahtopäitä vyörytellen,
milloin taas soiluen kuin sulatettu kulta. Tai oliko se saloseudun
hiljainen temppelirauha, joka alituisesti sai kysymään kaiken
sisäisintä, korkeinta olemusta?
Näinä aikoina Heikkiä tavattomasti ihmetytti se, että ihmiset niin
vähän puhuivat Jumalasta ja kuolemastakin… Mutta hän uskoi, että
isot ihmiset niistä sittenkin enemmän tiesivät, vaikka eivät tahtoneet
sitä sanoa. Olihan niin paljon asioita, joita he eivät sanoneet, vaikka
tiesivät…
Siihen kesään mahtui paljon kauniita ja onnellisia päiviä, jolloin
hän illalla väsyneenä vielä viimeksi ajatteli: Jumala on rakkaus…

iloisena nukkuen huomispäivän odotukseen. Mutta sitten taas tuli
toisia, joina hän ei ymmärtänyt mitään…
Eräänä aamuna talon emäntä itki ja isäntä kulki sanattomana ja
synkkänä. Äiti kertoi Heikille, että yöllä oli halla käynyt mailla, että
paljon viljaa oli paleltunut ja että kenties saataisiin katovuosi kautta
maan.
Ja eräänä päivänä oli pääskysen pesä pudonnut katon räystäältä
ja kissa syönyt pesässä olleet poikaset. Emälinnut lentelivät
hätääntyneinä räystään ympärillä, toisinaan viistäen siivillään maata,
missä murskaantuneet pesän sirpaleet olivat… Pari päivää
jälkeenpäin hukkui lähellä olevan torpan mies järveen ja naapurit
kertoivat äidille, että häneltä oli jäänyt tyhjään tupaan vaimo ja viisi
lasta. —
Näitä ja muita asioita, joita hän päiväpäivältä enemmän näki, kuuli
ja ymmärsi, katseli ja kuunteli Heikki tyrmistyneenä.
Hän huomasi, että niinäkin päivinä aurinko paistoi ja laski
kultaisena kaukaisen rannan taakse, aivan kuin se olisi katsellut
onnellista, ihanaa maata…
Ja äiti sanoi yhä, että kaikki mitä tapahtui täytyi tapahtua… ja että
Jumala oli rakkaus.
5.
Koko kaupunki oli kokoontunut katselemaan luistinkilpailuja, jotka
eräänä maaliskuun sunnuntai-iltapäivänä pidettiin Pohjalahdessa.

Luistinradalla oli yleisölle varattu tila väkeä täynnä ja läheisellä
rantavuorellakin oli väkeä mustanaan. Kaikki tiesivät, että kaupungin
parhaat pika- ja kaunoluistelijat ottaisivat osaa kilpailuihin. Katselijain
joukossa olivat varsinkin kaupungin oppikoulut viimeistä henkeä
myöten edustettuina.
Lyseossa ja tyttökoulussa ei viimeisen viikon aikana oltu puhuttu
tuskin mistään muusta kuin siitä, kuinka viime sunnuntain kilpailuissa
Ester Forssner oli saanut ensimäisen palkinnon. Eihän siinä muuten
olisi mitään ihmeellistä ollut, mutta samalla oli tapahtunut se
kumma, että Ella Andersson, joka jo parin vuoden aikana oli
kaunoluistelukilpailuissa ensimäiset palkinnot voittanut, oli tällä
kertaa saanut toisen palkinnon.
Ella Andersson oli Ester Forssneria kahta luokkaa ylempänä. Hän
oli jo melkein täysi "daami", lyseon yläluokkalaisten epäjumala ja
konventtitanssijaisten kuningatar. Ja varakkaan kirjakauppiaan
tyttärenä huomattiin hänet jo vähin muuallakin. Kaupungin
ijäkkäämmät neitoset alkoivat, vaarallista kilpailijaa peläten, luoda
häneen yhä epäluuloisempia silmäyksiä. Ella Andersson luisteli
mainiosti, mutta hän tanssi vieläkin paremmin. Ja koulussa hän oli
luokkansa parhaimpia oppilaita. Hänen tekojansa täytyi itse
johtajattarenkin sormiensa läpi katsella. Koulussa ei vielä ikinä oltu
nähty, että johtajatar olisi taluttanut Ella Anderssonin vesihanan alle
ja silittänyt suoraksi, hänen, aivan kuin uhmaten käherretyn
tukkansa, — vaikka monen monet vähäpätöisemmät tytöt tuon
tuostakin saivat läpäistä tällaisen vesikokeen, yrittäessään
kauneuden kaipuunsa pakoittamina hiukan luontoa auttaa.
Varsinkin tyttökoululaiset olivat tavattomasti hämmästyneet, kun
Ester Forssner oli viime sunnuntaina aivan odottamatta

ilmoittautunut kaunoluistelukilpailuihin, vaikka hänen täytyi tietää,
että Ella Anderssonkin ja vielä pari muuta yläluokan tyttöä ottaisi
niihin osaa. Monesta se oli tavattoman itserakasta, melkeinpä
röyhkeätäkin. — Olihan kylläkin nähty, että Ester oli koko talven
luistinradalla harjoitellut jos joitakin kiemuroita, mutta kukaan ei
uskonut, että hänen luistelemisestaan tulisi mitään yhtenäisempää ja
vähänkään suurempia vaatimuksia kestävää, kaikkein vähemmin,
että hän kykenisi kilpailemaan Ella Anderssonin kanssa. — Mutta
ihme oli tapahtunut. Ester Forssner oli viileskellyt jäätä luistimillaan,
niinkuin pääskynen viiltelee siivillään ilmaa. Ja hänen luistelussaan
oli joustavuutta ja itsetiedotonta suloa. Yleisön myötätunto oli alusta
aikain ollut hänen puolellaan, — suureksi osaksi sen vuoksi, että hän
oli vielä melkein pikkutyttö, jolla ei vielä ollut kadehtijoita, eikä
vihollisia. Palkintotuomarien mielipiteeseen taas vaikutti suuresti
tyttökoulun voimistelunopettajattaren neiti Lundin mielipide. Neiti
Lund taas ei voinut sietää Ella Anderssonia siitä saakka, kun hän oli
nähnyt maisteri Erlingin saattavan tätä kaunista oppilastansa
luistinradalta kotiin.
Kalpeana, mutta pää entistä pystymmässä, oli Ella Andersson
viimesunnuntaina poistunut luistinradalta. Ja seuraavana päivänä oli
hänen paras ystävänsä, Hilja Honkasalo, sanonut koulussa: eilen
olivat vain pikkukilpailut, mutta odottakaapas, tytöt, ensi
sunnuntaihin…
Tänään se nyt nähtäisiin.
Torvisoittokunta alkoi soittaa valssia ja kaunoluistelukilpailuun
osaaottajat luistelivat radalle.
Ensimäisenä leijaili Ella Andersson. Heti hänen kintereillään
seurasivat Ester Forssner, pari yhteiskoululaista ja tunnettu

kaunoluistelija Einar Hammar lyseosta. — Ella Andersson tuskin viitsi
vilkaistakaan kilpailijoihinsa, vaan keijui jäällä suuria kaaria tehden,
niin kuin iso lintu lentelee pienempäin parvessa. Mutta tälläkin kertaa
oli kuin noiduttua, että hän ei parhaalla tahdollaankaan voinut
herättää katsojissa mielenkiintoa ja myötätuntoista ihailua, jolla
häntä aikaisemmin tavallisesti oli kilpailuissa hemmoiteltu. Heti
alussa kysyivät kaikki, jotka eivät Ester Forssneria tunteneet: kuka
on tuo hoikka, nuori tyttö? Häntä eivät luistimet paina…
… Ester Forssner… Ester Forssner…
— Tuo neiti Andersson voisikin olla jo vaikka hänen mammansa, —
ilvehti väkijoukossa joku pahasuinen tehtaalaispoika.
Heikki Halldin seisoi aitausköydestä kiinni pidellen ja seurasi
jännityksellä kilpailun menoa. Tai oikeammin seurasivat hänen
silmänsä vain Ester Forssneria. Heikistä Ester oli tänään kauniimpi
kuin koskaan ennen. Oikein jumalattoman kaunis hän oli! Vaalean
tukan utu kehysti hänen ponnistuksesta värikkäitä kasvojansa. Letti
heilahteli ja sininen, nahalla päärmätty hame liehui. Ja yleisön
kohina, joka yhä yltyen toisti Ester Forssnerin nimeä, täytti hänet
ylpeyden sekaisella ilolla. Esterin voitto oli ikäänkuin hänenkin
voittonsa… Sekä lyseolaiset, että tyttökoululaiset tiesivät, että Ester
oli hänen "flammansa". Tänä talvena olivat he melkein joka ilta olleet
yhdessä, luistinradalla, Isollakadulla, Forssnerilla tai Huurin
kondiittorissa. Mutta vaikka he tapasivatkin toisensa melkein joka
päivä, niin siitä huolimatta he usein kirjoittelivatkin toisillensa. Kolme
runoakin Heikki oli saanut juuri viime viikkoina Ester Forssnerilta.
Hänkin olisi kernaasti vastannut runomitalla, mutta hän ei voinut
saada säettäkään kokoon, vaan oli edelleenkin pakoitettu
kirjoittamaan suorasanaisia vastauksia.

Siitä, mistä he kirjoittivat toisillensa, eivät he juuri milloinkaan
puhuneet. Se olisi ollut puhuen niin jokapäiväistä… sillä olivathan he
pitäneet toisistaan niin kauan kuin muistivat. Mutta vasta joulusta
alkaen olivat he rakastaneet… ja neljä viikkoa sitten olivat he
ensikerran suudelleet…
Heikki tunsi poskiensa kuumenevan ja hän havahtui ajatuksistaan
aivankuin pelästyen, että vieressäolijat pääsisivät hänen
salaisuutensa perille. — — —
Väliajan tultua seurasi Heikki hiukan pahalla silmällä, kuinka Einar
Hammar talutti Esteriä kahvikojuun lämmittelemään ja mitenkä hän
kohteliaasti auttoi turkkia Esterin harteille. Kun rouva Forssnerkin
näkyi rientävän Esterin luo, niin ajatteli Heikkikin ensin mennä heitä
tervehtimään, mutta Einar Hammarin tähden ei hän kuitenkaan
viitsinyt, sillä hän oli aina niin kovin suurellinen ja ylimielinen.
Samassa alkoivat Heikin vieressä seisovat pari neitiä jutella ja kun
he mainitsivat Ester Forssnerin nimen, niin katosi Heikiltä tykkänään
halu lähteä liikkeelle.
— Lahjakas hän epäilemättä on, mutta kyllä kai hän myöskin on
kaupungin hemmotelluin tyttö, jatkoi toinen, Esteriä tarkoittaen. —
Hän kuuluu jo kirjoittelevan aika hyviä runojakin. Hänen tätinsä,
rouva
Suojärvi, lausui kerran muutamia rouvasväen yhdistyksessä.
— Niin, koko sukuhan kuuluu aivan hirveästi hassuttelevan tytön
lahjakkaisuudella. Kaikki mitä Ester tekee on muka erinomaista,
hänen runonsa, tanssinsa ja piirustustöherryksensä… Varsinkin
tuollaiset runot saisivat toistaiseksi olla pöytälaatikossa, ei niitä
tarvitse ruveta täysikasvuisille ihmisille lausumaan, julkisissa juhlissa.

— No niin minäkin ajattelin, mutta onhan maisteri Kannus toki aika
luotettava auktoriteetti ja hän sanoi, että on suorastaan ihmeellistä,
mitenkä niin nuori tyttö kirjoittaa aivan kuin nuori nainen. Ja
sellainen temperamentti…
— Pah, älä viitsi! Maisteri Kannuksesta on maailman sivun ollut
jokainen runoja töhertelevä koulutyttö tai joku muu kyhäilevä
letukka, aivankuin mikäkin uusi Sappho, vaikka koko heidän
lyyrillisyytensä ei olisi sen merkillisempää kuin kissain keväällä…
— Hst! Hanna sinä et saa… vielä joku tuttava kuulisi.
— Kuulkoot! Minua harmittaa koko Forssnerin joukko.
— Rouva Forssner on itsekin aina ollut kuin huono runo…
— Tuolla he jo tulevatkin.
— Ja Ella Andersson aina ja jokapaikassa ensimmäisenä!
— Hän kai on sinusta ainakin edes hyvää proosaa?
— Ainakin toivon hänen siksi tulevan, — ja se on paljon parempaa
kuin huono runous.
— Mutta katso nyt, kuinka Ester Forssner on suloinen!
Sekä harmistuneena, että huvitettuna oli Heikki kuunnellut
tuntemattomien naisten keskustelua. Hän ymmärsi, että oli rumaa
seurata vieraitten ihmisten keskustelua, mutta minkä hän korvillensa
mahtoi. Olisivat olleet varovaisempia.
Ester Forssner leijaili ja tanssi taaskin aivankuin luistimet olisivat
pyrkineet häntä ilmoihin nostamaan. Joskus leiskahti hän aivan

Heikin eteen ja silloin Heikki aina punastui, vaikka Ester ei koskaan
nostanutkaan katsettaan yleisöön. Seuraavassa hetkessä kaarteli hän
jo toisella puolen luistinrataa kuin tuulessa keinuva höyhen.
Ella Anderssonkin koetti parastansa, eikä häneltäkään ihailijoita
puuttunut. Hänen liikkeensä olivat raskaammat kuin Ester
Forssnerin, mutta ne olivat myöskin varmemmat. Ja kilpailun
loppupuolella hän ikäänkuin notkistui koko olemukseltaan, niin että
mielipiteet ensimäisestä palkinnosta alkoivat vaappua sinne tänne.
Monen mielestä olisi paras ratkaisu ollut: kaksi toista palkintoa, eikä
ollenkaan ensimäistä.
Palkintotuomarien päätös oli pian valmis, vaikka neiti Lundin ja
maisteri Erlingin välillä taaskin sattui pientä sanaharkkaa. —
Ensimäisen palkinnon jaossa saivat Ella Andersson ja Ester Forssner
yhtäpaljon ääniä, joten täytyi heittää arpaa. Arpa ratkaisi voiton Ella
Anderssonille. Mutta joskin hänelle näin tavallaan tuli voitto, niin tuli
Ester Forssnerille kunnia… Kolmannen palkinnon sai Einar Hammar
ja neljännen eräs toinen poika yhteiskoulusta, mutta nämä palkinnot
eivät ketään liikuttaneet.
Yhteisluistelu alkoi.
Heikki oli tuloksesta hyvin onnellinen. Hän riensi kahvikojuun
onnittelemaan Esteriä, joka äitinsä kanssa oli parhaillaan
poislähdössä. Ester näytti iloiselta, mutta kuitenkin huomasi Heikki,
että hän ei ollut parhaimmalla tuulellaan. Arvatenkin kaiveli häntä
arvan ratkaisu… kun kerran voitto oli niinkin lähellä. Mutta
todellisuudessa kiukutti Esteriä se, että hän oli sattunut kuulemaan,
kuinka Ella Andersson oli selittänyt suurelle poika- ja tyttöjoukolle,
että Ester oli alituiseen kiertänyt hänen tiellensä, niin, että joka hetki
oli saanut varoa…

Rouva Forssner oli huolissaan Esterin vuoksi, sillä samana iltana oli
pankinjohtaja Auerilla tanssijaiset. Heidän täytyi rientää kotiin, että
Ester ennättäisi hiukan levätä, vaikka hän vakuuttikin jaksavansa
tanssia vaikka kuinka.
Tanssijaiset Auerilla…
Heikki tuli hajamieliseksi. Pojat olivat kyllä eilen lyseossa
kertoneet, että Auerilla olisi piakkoin tanssijaiset, jonne ei ketään
"suomettarelaisesta" kodista olevaa kutsuttaisi, mutta hän luuli koko
jutun olevan tavallista poikain jupakkaa, eikä hän ollut osannut
kuvitellakaan, että hänkin kuuluisi kutsumatta jätettäviin, sillä eihän
hänellä ollut isää, joka olisi ollut vaikutusvaltaisessa asemassa siellä
tai täällä…
Tämä kaikki oli uutta ja kummallista…
Miksi ei Esterkään ollut kertonut mitään? Hän ei ollut edes
maininnut, että hänet oli kutsuttu. Heikki oli ajatuksissaan juossut
katsomaan, kuinka ensimäiset raketit lensivät ilmaan ja kun ne
sammuneina palasivat maata kohden, meni hän uudestaan Esterin
luo ja sivumennen kuiskasi, että häntä ei oltu kutsuttukaan Auerille.
Ester puhui parhaillaan ruotsia äitinsä ja Einar Hammarin kanssa ja
hän vain heilutti päätänsä ja katsoi Heikkiä kuin rauhansa häiritsijää,
mumisten:
— Minkä minä sille mahdan…
— Mikset eilenkään mitään sanonut? kysyi Heikki hiukan
vaateliaasti, tiukasti katsoen Esteriin.

— Jes, kun sinä olet höntti, sanoi Ester, niiaten samassa eräälle
ohi kulkevalle opettajattarelle.
Heikki loukkaantui ja kääntyi pois. Samassa lensi raketteja taaskin
ilmaan ja hän jäi niitä katselemaan, tuntien mielensä yhä enemmän
karvastuvan…
— Minnekkä sinä panit minun luistimeni? kysyi Ester Forssnerin
ääni, hetken kuluttua, hänen takanansa. Kun Heikki kääntyi
sanoaksensa, että ei hänellä niitä ollut, niin oli Ester jo toisaalla ja
Einar Hammar heilutti kädessään hänen luistimiansa.
Heikki oli aikonut lähteä Esterin ja hänen äitinsä kanssa kotiin,
mutta hän huomasi, että nyt hän olisi "viides pyörä vaunuissa", ja
sen enempää Esteriä lähestymättä sitoi hän luistimet uudestaan
jalkoihinsa ja luisteli tummansinisenä vilisevään väkijoukkoon, jota
monivärisinä sähisevät raketit tuontuostakin valaisivat.
Luistinradalta palatessaan tapasi Heikki kotiportaissaan
kauppaneuvos Luutosen, joka juuri sulki heidän oveansa. Äiti oli
nähtävästi seurannut kauppaneuvosta ovelle, sillä hänen varjonsa
vilahti eteisen lasioven kaihtimessa.
Heikistä oli kauppaneuvos Luutonen ollut heidän talonsa
painajainen niinkauan kuin hän muisti. Jo varhaisina
lapsuusvuosinansa hän oli huomannut, kuinka äiti oli alakuloinen ja
masentunut kauppaneuvos Luutosen käyntien jälkeen. Ellei
kauppaneuvos samassa olisi kääntynyt portaita alaspäin astumaan,
niin Heikki olisi kääntynyt alaovelta takaisin. Nyt se oli kuitenkin
myöhäistä. Kummallinen hervakkuus polvissaan nousi hän portaita
kauppaneuvosta vastaan, kohteliaasti tervehtien. Kauppaneuvos
pysähtyi, jääden hetkeksi nojaamaan hopeakahvaiseen keppiinsä.

Hänen jykevälihaksiset kasvonsa olivat olevinaan ystävällisiksi
viritetyt, kun hän tervehtiessään ojensi Heikille vasemman kätensä,
— luultavasti siksi, että hän ei viitsinyt muuttaa keppiä oikeasta.
— Jaha… nuori mies tulee luistelemasta. Ja niin posket punaisina!
Onko otettu osaa kilpailuunkin?
Heikki vastasi, että katsomassa hän vain oli ollut, mutta
kauppaneuvos Luutonen ei yleensä kysellyt vastauksia
kuunnellaksensa, vaan jatkoi edelleen:
… Jaha… Kuinkas vanha sinä nyt taas oletkaan? Sinusta tulee pitkä
kuin isäsi… nyt jo olet varmasti äitisi mittainen. Jaha… kuudentoista
ja kuudennella luokalla… niin niin, äitisi juuri sanoikin… Sitten sopisi
jo syksystä aloittaa käytännöllisellä alalla. Käytännöllinen ala on
paras nykyään…
Heikki oli katsellut hänen sileäksi ajeltuja kasvojansa, joissa nahka
kauttaaltaan oli tasaisen punertavaa ja kummallisen paksun näköistä
ja hän muisti Schillerin säkeen: "Kasvoissa noissa ei sydäntä näy", ja
luoden katseensa alas, sanoi hän varmasti:
— Minä tahdon jatkaa ainakin ylioppilaaksi.
Kauppaneuvoksesta kuulosti vastauksessa köyhän ylpeyttä. Hän
alensi äänensä isällisen opettavaksi, samalla kun hymynväreet
tykkänään katosivat hänen kasvoistaan.
— Juu, juu, tietysti se olisi hauskaa ja mukavaa sekin, mutta niin
suuren pojan pitäisi ruveta jo vähän ajattelemaan mitenkä voisi
äitiäkin auttaa…

Samassa aukeni ovi heidän takanansa ja Heikin äiti katsoi
kysyvänä eteiseen.
Kauppaneuvos astui askeleen alaspäin. Heikki nosti hattuaan ja
alkoi nousta portaita.
— Minä täällä vielä juttelen teidän nuoren herran kanssa, jatkoi
kauppaneuvos äidille,… kun on niin kasvanut ja punaposkinen…
Käytännölliselle alalle minä kehoitin, mutta ei taida olla halua… Tulee
kai isäänsä. Niinpä niin… hänen puoleltaanhan Heikki tuleekin
pappis-sukuun, juu juu, lukeminenkin on kai veressä… No, hyvästi
vaan.
Rouva Halldin vastasi väsyneesti jotakin, että Heikki ei kai vielä ole
ajatellut tulevaisuuttansa sinne eikä tänne, sanoi hyvästi, ja sulki
oven.
Äitinsä kasvoista näki Heikki heti, että Luutosen käynti ei heille
tälläkään kerralla mikään onnellinen sattuma ollut.
Mutta kun tällaista sattui ainakin pari kolme kertaa vuodessa, niin
ei hän myöskään osannut ajatella, että Luutosen tämänpäiväisellä
käynnillä olisi ollut tavallista kohtalokkaampi merkitys. Hän koetti
iloisen huolettomasti kertoa mitenkä luistinkilpailut olivat päättyneet
ja meni kyökkiin kuivaamaan luistimiansa.
Ahdistava tunne, joka juuri oli hänet hetkeksi jättänyt kiertyi
uudestaan hänen ympärillensä. Äiti oli äärettömän väsyneen
näköinen ja kalpea… raukka.
Luotosella oli kiinnitys heidän taloonsa ja muutenkin olivat he
olleet aivan hänen vallassaan siitä saakka kun isä kuoli. Nyt hän oli

varmaankin puristanut otteensa yhä lujempaan. Sitä kai hän oli
tarkoittanutkin puheellaan äidin auttamisella ja käytännöllisellä alalla.
Ah! Miksei hänessä ollut miestä vapauttamaan heidät tuon
vampyyrin kynsistä! Heikki tunsi masennuksella oman
voimattomuutensa. Hän ei vielä ikänänsä ollut ansainnut kuin pari
sataa markkaa, opettaessaan parina viimekesänä erään perheen
sairalloista poikaa. Siinä kaikki. Ja nyt! Vaikka hän jättäisi kaikki ja
koettaisi ruveta miten käytännölliselle alalle tahansa, niin kestäisi
kuitenkin kauan, ennenkuin hän kykenisi mitään sanottavaa
ansaitsemaan. Kirottu Luutonen!
… Vai pettivätköhän hänen vaistonsa? Kenties vieläkin oli kaikki
voitu toistaiseksi järjestää. Äidillä oli tapana sanoa: "joka voittaa
aikaa, se voittaa kaikki…" Kenties äiti oli muuten vain tavallista
väsyneempi ja kiusaantunut ainaisista asioista…
Hiukan rohkaistuneempana vei Heikki luistimet eteiseen. Äiti istui
salissa lampun ääressä ja oli silmäilevinään sanomalehteä. Heikki
meni myöskin pöydän luo ja otti päivän lehden käteensä, mutta se
oli hänestä tyhjää täysi… Hän ei voinut parhaalla tahdollaankaan
pitää ajatuksiaan koossa.
Huoneessa väreili jotakin raskasta, tuskallista, jota aina on
ilmassa, kun jokin vaikea asia on sanomatta…
— Sinä kai tahtoisit teetä; minä luulin sinun menneen Forssnerille,
sanoi rouva Halldin hetken kuluttua, hermostuneesti kääntäen
lehteä. — Heikki kiitti.
Hän ei tahtonut mitään. Vasta hetken kuluttua heitti hän lehtensä
pöydälle ja koetti huolettomasti virkkoa:

— Auerilla on tänään tanssiaiset ja Ester meni sinne.
Rouva Halldin nosti katseensa nopeasti lehdestä ja hänen
kasvonsa elostuivat.
— Eikö sinua ole kutsuttu? kysyi hän hämmästyneenä, kasvot
elostuen.
Heikki hymyili ivallisesti.
— Ei! Ei minua, eikä keitaan muitakaan suomettarelaisista
kodeista.
Äiti näytti yhä hämmästyneemmältä.
— Niin on sanottu. Eikä meidänkään koulusta ole siellä muita kuin
Artur Holmberg, kertoivat pojat luistinradalla. Ja viimekerralla oli
siellä meidänkin luokalta… kolme, ainakin… neljä poikaa, kertoi
Heikki, naurahdellen.
Rouva Halldin nousi kiihtyneenä kävelemään.
— Mikähän vilja tästäkin vielä kypsyy, kun lapset ja lasten
tanssijaisetkin sekoitetaan politiikkaan… Ja mitä suomettarelaisia
mekin muka olemme! —
— Onhan äiti suomettarelainen, intti Heikki, puoleksi leikillä, —
tuossa on pöydällä "Suometar" ja tuolla on Yrjö-Koskisen rintakuva…
— Älä viitsi! keskeytti rouva Halldin kärsimättömästi, jatkaen
kävelyään.
— Parempi onkin, että tuollaiset ihmiset näyttävät oikean värinsä,
ja pikkumaisuutensa, jatkoi hän hetken kuluttua.

Molemmat vaikenivat. Heidän oma asiansa oli vielä puhumatta.
Rouva Halldin katseli ajatuksissaan lampun helmireunustaan ja
Heikin katse harhaili puolihämärällä seinällä, pysähtyen isän
suurennettuun valokuvaan. Sen tummat silmät katsoivat suoraan
heihin, jotka siinä lampun valaisemina istuivat. Ne silmät Heikki
muisti kuitenkin paljon kummallisempina, samoin kiharan
suippoparran, joka pani posken kutiamaan, niin että täytyi nauraa,
nauraa loppumattomasti… Ja sitten hän muisti kylmän sateisen
päivän, jolloin pappi heitti hiekkamöhkäleitä hautaan lasketulle
arkulle, ja kuinka sitten alkoi sataa vettä ja ihmiset lauloivat:
"taivaassa ratki taivaassa" ja kuinka hän katseli taivaalle, mitenkä
pilvet olisivat rikki…
— Kai meidän täytyy nyt vihdoinkin luopua tästä talosta… ja
paljosta muustakin, sanoi rouva Halldin pitkän vaitiolon jälkeen.
Heikki havahtui. Hänestä oli kuin äiti olisi sanonut saman jo
aikaisemminkin.
— Luutonen siis vaatii niin?
— Tavallaan. Ja kun talo tuottaa näinä aikoina vain tappiota, niin
on turhaa koettaa kääntyä kenenkään toisenkaan puoleen.
— Mutta voivathan ajat muuttua taas vuoden parin kuluttua,
huomautti
Heikki.
— Se on epävarmaa ja silläaikaa me vain yhä onnettomammin
velkaantuisimme, selitti rouva Halldin toivottomana.
— Siis vararikko…? Heikki kysyi tuskin kuuluvasti.

— Muuta neuvoa en minä ainakaan tällä hetkellä tiedä, vastasi äiti
samassa äänilajissa.
Heikin silmäripsiin ilmestyi pari suurta kyyneltä. Rouva Halldinin
äidin sydäntä ne polttivat ja hän koetti lohduttaa:
— Ehkä minä saan jotakin työtä ja kenties joku hyvä ihminen
suostuu auttamaan sinua luvuissasi. Onhan se aivan toista esittääkin
ihmisille kuin pyytää heitä tukemaan afääriä, joka ei kannata… Sitä
minä en enää voi, enkä jaksa.
Heikki kuivasi kyyneleensä nopeasti. Oli siis tultu tähän mitä he jo
vuosikaudet olivat kauhulla ajatelleet. Talo oli jo kauan ollut heille
kuin hiljaa uppoava laiva. Nyt tulisi siis kai pian hetki, jolloin heidän
täytyisi se jättää.
Mutta heistä kummastakin tuntui helpommalta heti, kun hetkisen
olivat katsoneet kovaa todellisuutta suoraan silmiin.
Kuitenkin oli läksyjen lukeminen sinä iltana Heikistä aivan
mahdotonta, sillä hänen ajatuksensa eivät hetkeäkään pysyneet
koossa.
Tämä päivä oli hänestä ollut oikea onnettomuuden päivä, siitäkin
huolimatta, että Ester Forssner oli saanut palkinnon… Nyt olisi hän
melkein suonut ettei Ester olisi sitä saanutkaan. Miksikä kaikki noin
liittyi äitiä ja häntä vastaan? Hän koetti ajatella kaikki julkiset ja
salaiset pahat tekonsa, mutta mitään näin suurta rangaistusta
ansaitsevaa syntiä ei hän mitenkään löytänyt, vaikka kuinka olisi
muistellut. Jos kaikki ihmiset, Jumalalta tai elämältä, niinkuin
maisteri Holm sanoi, saisivat pahoista töistään samanlaisia
rangaistuksia, niin silloin ei kenelläkään olisi taloa, eikä tavaroita…

Kohta hän ei enää voinut oikein uskoa mihinkään… Äiti puhui
alituiseen koettelemuksen rististä, jota Jumala kyllä auttoi
kantamaan. Minkätähden piti ihmisiä koetella ja kiusata viimeiseen
saakka? Itkihän äiti muutenkin usein öisin, ja monta kertaa
päivilläkin kun hän tuli koulusta, niin äidin kasvot olivat itkusta
turvonneet.
Talo myytäisiin… Ja kuitenkaan ei Heikki oikein osannut
kuvitellakaan kotiansa muualla kuin juuri tässä talossa. Tästä oli niin
hyvä mennä hiihtelemään santakuopille, tuohon heidän
lankkuaitansa taakse. Ja akkunastaan näki hän aina milloinka heidän
koulun poikia alkoi sinne ilmestyä. Ja kesäisin… Täällä oli aivan kuin
maalla.
Isän kiväärikin kai myytäisiin… Ensi kesänä oli hänen ollut määrä
saada sitä käyttää. Isän kirjoituspöytä… Kaikki… Heillä ei
varmaankaan olisi tästä talosta lähteissään senkään vertaa tavaraa
kun Wiikmanin leskellä oli ollut muuttaessaan. Mutta sitten hän
muisti Ester Forssneria ja sitä, että hänenkin äitinsä sanottiin
tehneen konkurssin. Ja kuitenkin heillä taas oli tavaraa huoneet
täynnä. Ehkä konkurssi sittenkään ei ollut niin kauheata kuin se näin
ennakolta näytti.
… Ester Forssner oli parhaillaan tanssiaisissa… Hän sai syödä
hedelmiä ja jäätelöä niin paljon kuin maittoi ja tanssia, tanssia…
Hänkin olisi niin mielellään tanssinut, nyt kun hänellä oli aivan uusi
smokingikin, joka hänellä vasta oli pari kertaa ollut tanssiaisissa. —
Miksikähän äidin pitikin kuulua semmoiseen puolueeseen, jota kaikki
haukkuivat bobrikoffilaiseksi ja maansa myyjäksi. Ja kuitenkin vihasi
äiti Bobrikoffia yhtäpaljon kuin muutkin. Hän katkeroitui
ajatuksissaan äidilleen ja kaikille ihmisille…

Einar Hammar tietysti saattaa Esteriä kotiin. Sitten he varmaankin
sopivat huomisesta luistinradalle menosta…
Sopikoot ja luistelkoot! Hänkään ei tästä alkaen välitä Esteristä,
vaan luistelee Aino Kajavan kanssa. Hän oli melkein yhtä sievä tyttö
kun Esterkin ja vielä paljon etevämpi.
Jos hän olisi kehdannut, niin hän olisi vielä lähtenyt ulos ja mennyt
Auerin akkunan taakse katsomaan… Siellä oli varmaankin toisiakin
poikia katselemassa. Mutta hän ei uskaltanut, eikä viitsinyt äidiltä
enää sellaista pyytää.
Hän meni aikaiseen levolle harmissaan ja masentuneena.
Yöllä näkee hän unta.
Heillä on huutokauppa. Kaikki myydään, niin ettei jää edes vanhaa
tuoliakaan jälelle, vaan vieraitten täytyy seisoa heidän huoneissaan.
Rouva Forssner seisoo muurin luona ja joku sanoo, että hän on
niinkuin huono runo. Ihmiset itkevät. Silloin kohistaan, että Ester
Forssner ja Pekka Auer avaavat tanssiaiset, ja samassa tanssivat
Ester ja Pekka saliin. Pekalla on oikea aikamiesten smokingi ja
kiiltonahkakengät. Ester on niinkuin prinsessa. He tanssivat, puhuen
ja nauraen, eivätkä huomaa ketään, kunnes vihdoin menevät salin
perällä kasvavan sireenipensaan alle keinulaudalle istumaan, ja
nauravat ja suutelevat…
6.
Huutokauppapäivä oli tullut.

Jo puoli kymmenen aikaan aamupäivällä alkoi väkeä kokoontua
Halldinin talon pihalle, ja kymmenen tienoissa oli piha jo mustanaan
ihmisiä. — Siellä oli huutokaupasta toiseen juoksevia matameja
vanhoissa silkki- tai samettikapoissa, jotka aikoinaan olivat nähneet
parempia päiviä, hienojen rouvien päällysvaatteina ollessaan.
Jossakin nurkassa naureskeli kopla pöhönaamaisia talonhuijareita,
silmät valppaina jokapuolelle. Viimeksi saapui paikalle muutamia
hienoja rouvia, käsilaukun ketju lujasti ranteen ympärille kiedottuna.
He tulivat antiikki-esineiden toivossa. — Kotosalla oleva oman talon
väki kurkisteli akkunoistansa tai seisoskeli portaillansa, tuttavainsa
kanssa keskustellen.
Vanha vasaramies Granqvist sai juuri valmiiksi pakkalaatikoista
itsellensä laittamansa korokkeen, jossa jo oli pieni pöytäkin
odottamassa, kun raatihuoneen kello alkoi lyödä kymmentä.
Väkijoukko alkoi tungeksia korokkeen ympärille ja ukko Granqvist
nousi pöytänsä taakse, vasara ja soittokello kädessään, juhlallisin
ilmein. Näki kaikista hänen eleistänsä, että hän ei ollut ensikertaa
pappia kyydissä… Moniin satoihin taisivat nousta ne huutokaupat,
jotka hänen suulaalla avustuksellaan oli tässä kaupungissa ja
ympäristön lähipitäjissäkin pidetty. Hän katseli korokkeeltansa
edessään olevaa väkijoukkoa, niinkuin pappi ennen saarnansa
alkamista katselee seurakuntaansa, tai niinkuin esiintyvä taiteilija
silmäilee yleisöä konserttisalissa. Vielä silmäys ympärille kasattuihin
esineisiin ja rouva Halldinin kyökin portaille asettuvaan kirjuriin.
Samassa löi raatihuoneen kellokin kymmenennen lyöntinsä.
Ukko Granqvist soitti aisakellollaan pitkään ja alkoi sitten
yksitoikkoisella juhlallisella äänellä julistaa huutokaupan avatuksi —
— — "viisipenniä saa olla pienin huutomäärä. Rahat huudoista ovat
paikalla maksettavat."

Ja sitte hän alkoi tarjoilla tavaroita.
Ensinnä sai hän käsiinsä piippuhyllyn, jossa oli muutamia Heikin
iso-isän vanhoja merenvahapiippuja.
— Piippuhylly, viisi hyvää merenvahapiippua… alkoi hän samalla
nuotilla, mutta yleisöstä huudettiin usealta eri tahoilta äkäisesti:
yksitellen, yksitellen! Vastaan napisematta otti Granqvist heti yhden
piipuista käteensä ja alkoi uudestaan: — Merenvahapiippu, helmillä
koristellulla varrella, helat vanhaa hopeata.
— Viisikymmentä penniä! huudettiin väkijoukosta.
— Viisikymmentä penniä, kertasi vasaramies, viisikymmen…
— Kaksi markkaa! huudettiin taampaa.
— Kaksi markkaa ensimäinen, kaksi…
— Kolme markkaa, lisäsi joku vieläkin kauempaa.
Piipun sai kahdeksalla markalla rouva Nyholm, jolla oli vanhain
tavarain kauppa Laitakadulla.
Ja huutokauppa jatkui yhä vauhdikkaammin.
Oli toukokuun päivä. Tuuli lennätti taivaalla repaleisia pilvipurjeita.
Suurissa vaahterissa pihan perällä lauloivat linnut. Ilmassa tuoksui
kevät. Monet huutokauppavieraat katselivat kummakseen, kuinka
talon makasiinin nurkalla olevassa sireenipensaassa jo oli suuria
lehtinuppuja. Mutta joku ennusti vielä takatalveakin.
Heikki seisoi yksinään portailla, katsellen avonaisista ovista
huutokaupan kulkua. Hän oli jäänyt tänään koulusta pois, vaikka äiti

oli toivonut ettei hän jäisi tähän häläkkään… Heikki ymmärsi, että äiti
oli niin toivonut säästääkseen häntä… mutta kun kerran äidinkin
täytyi olla saapuvilla, niin miksei hänkin voisi katsella kuinka heidän
kotinsa pirstaleet lopullisesti lähtisivät tuuliajolle. — Viime viikkoina
oli hän jo tottunut ja karaistunut jos johonkin. Milloin olivat
saamamiehet tarkastelleet taloa ulkoa ja sisältä ja heidän kodissaan
melkeinpä eri esineitäkin. Se oli aluksi ollut kamalaa. Herra Jumala!
Joskus iltapäivillä, kun hän läksyjään lukiessaan näki Luutosen parin
muun pomon kanssa pihalla töllistelevän ja arvioivan, niin, jos
hänellä olisi ollut rahaa, kuinka hän olisikaan mennyt ja lyönyt sitä
heille suut ja silmät täyteen. Hah, luulivat muka jotakin ja enemmän
olevansa siksi, että heillä oli rahaa, jota olivat joko keinotelleet,
varastaneet, pettäneet tai naineet. Kyllä hän heidät tiesi jokaisen,
niin, melkein jokaisen, ilman eroitusta. Kuka tuli upporikkaaksi
rehellisellä työllä…?
Senkin korpit!
Noille olisi hänen äitinsä korkorästi vuodelta tai parilta ollut vain
jokunen numero kirjoissa, niin tai näin, eikä mitään muuta. —
Heidän käytännölliset alansa! Kuinka typerää puhua siitäkin
jokaiselle, ilman poikkeusta. Mitähän siitäkin tulisi, jos vain kaikki ne
lukisivat, joitten papalla oli paksu rahalompakko. Jo heidänkin
koulussaan sai siitä selvän käsityksen.
Heikkiä oli koko kevään harmittanut, että hän äitinsä kehoituksesta
eräänä päivänä oli näyttänyt kauppaneuvos Luutoselle viimekeväisen
todistuksensa. Hän oli puolittain toivonut, että Luutonen siitäkin olisi
nähnyt jonkunlaisia tulevaisuuden takeita tai edes käsittänyt, että
hän kiristyksellään ehkäisi nuoren ihmisen lupaavia
kehitysmahdollisuuksia… Mutta se oli ollut turhaa, turhaa. "Kyllähän

se korea paperi on", oli Luutonen sanonut, lisäten samassa: "mutta
sellaisia minulle tuon tuostakin nuoret miehet näyttelevät apua
pyytäessään, mutta meillä on nyt jo eteviä maistereitakin kuin
Wilkkilässä kissoja; käytännöllistä alaa minä vaan suositan
jokaiselle". Heikkiä oli harmittanut kahdenkertaisesti. Miksi hän ei
ollut luottanut silmiinsä: kun tuon miehen kasvoissa kerta ei ollut
muuta kuin lihaksia… Mutta äiti oli torunut häntä ylimielisyydestä,
kun Heikki oli pihdeillä ottanut Luutosen pöydälle jättämän
todistuksen ja vienyt sen laatikkoon.
Huudot ja sorina havauttivat Heikin tuon tuostakin seuraamaan
edessään tapahtuvaa näytelmää…
Huh! Kuinka ihmiset olivatkaan sentään… sitä oli vaikea
sanoakaan… Ottipa vasaramies käteensä minkä esineen tahansa,
niin sitä kaikki heti tuijottivat ahnaasti kuin siat riepua… Saakoot,
ottakoot! Nyt juuri sai Luutonen, kahden markan koroituksella,
itselleen empiiretyylisen kristallikruunun, jota muuan vahtimestari
Heikin huoneen akkunasta näytti väkijoukolle. Kruunu oli hänen
isänsä kodista ja pienenä olivat sen kristallit olleet Heikistä kuin
"Tuhannen ja yhden yön sadut".
Ottakoot,… viekööt! ajatteli Heikki edelleen. Hän tunsi poskiensa
kuumenevan ja koko hänen olemuksessaan kuohahti jokin kuuma
virta. Sillä hetkellä tunsi hän salaisella riemulla, että hän oli nuori ja
että hän oli lahjakas… Olihan koulussa kaikki ollut hänelle kuin
leikkiä alusta alkaen. Miksei kaikki vastedeskin siten olisi… Jos hän
tahtoo — — — ja hän tahtoo — — —, niin muutaman vuoden
kuluttua hän kutsuu noita rihkaman kerääjiä jokaista omalla, oikealla
nimellänsä. Silloin hän on jotakin, mutta he eivät ole mitään,
enempää kuin tänäkään päivänä, vaikka heillä olisi kahdenkertaisesti

rahaa ostaa leskien ja orpojen konkurssipesistä joitakin vanhoja
kalleuksia… Hän kulkee omia uusia teitänsä ja hänelle ojennetaan
käsiä, joita nuo eivät saa koskaan puristaa. Rikkakasalta toiselle he
kulkevat, etsien mistä mitäkin saisi markkaa, paria, halvemmalla…
— Silinterihattu… huusi vasaramies.
Kuului naurun rähähdyksiä.
— Viisikolmatta penniä!
— Viisikymmentä!
… Äidillä oli muutamia haalistuneita valokuvia, joissa isällä oli
päässään silinterihattu. Ne olivat heidän kihlausajaltaan. Isä oli niissä
niin hienon näköinen. Heikki oli pienenä usein katsellut silinteripäisiä
herroja hautajaissaatoissa, voidakseen paremmin kuvitella
minkälainen isä kerran oli ollut…
— Markka seitsemänkymmentä.
— Viisi ja kuusikymmentä…! Ensimäinen… toinen… ja kolmas…
kerta! Vasara paukahti pöytään ja väkijoukosta tunkeutui hölmön
näköinen mies saalistaan ottamaan.
— Missä se silkkipytty on? — Hän maksoi kirjanpitäjälle rahat,
myttysi lippulakin taskuunsa ja pani silinterin päähänsä ja
suurenmoista ryhtiä teeskennellen tunkeutui remuavaan
väkijoukkoon.
— Katsokaas, kun Jelmin Aatu on kuin suuri herra! imarteli
hampaaton
Polvianderska, vanhat turkit käsivarrellaan.

— Vaatteethan herran tekevät, kikatti joku palvelustyttö joukosta.
— Ja leskien huutokaupoista saa hyvää tavaraa halvalla hinnalla,
vastasi muuan hamppari, koetellen ylleen vanhaa sadetakkia.
Mutta uusi "herra" kulki väkijoukossa kädet housuntaskuissa,
mahtaillen tervehtien tuttaviaan, aivankuin olisi vastikään keksinyt
uuden elämäntehtävän.
Heikin silmät sumenivat. Hän lähti nopeasti sekasortoisiin
huoneisiin harhailemaan.
Missähän äiti oli? Hän oli aikaisemmin hetkisen seisonut portailla.
Heikki katsoi sinne ja tänne, ja viimeisestä huoneesta löysi hän äidin
levähtämästä. Hän oli kalpea ja surullinen, mutta hänen silmänsä
olivat kyyneleettömät.
7.
Sen jälkeen oli rouva Halldinin ja hänen poikansa elämä ikäänkuin
ainaista pilvisäätä.
Rikkaita eivät he ennenkään olleet, mutta he olivat kuitenkin
eläneet tavallista hyvinvoipaa elämää. Olihan heillä ollut kaunis koti,
johon kuului useita huoneita, palvelija ja muita tavallisen
porvarillisen elämän mukavuuksia.
Entisestä talostaan muuttivat he aivan toiseen kaupunginosaan,
jossa haalistuneet rakennukset olivat sinne tänne kallellaan ja
akkunat useissa paikoin talorytäkköjen välissä mutkistelevien teitten

tasalla. Siellä olivat he kalustaneet pari huonetta niillä rippeillä, mitä
kauppaneuvos Luutonen ja pari muuta saamamiestä olivat
hyväntahtoisesti suvainneet heille jättää.
Rouva Halldin oli saanut paikan erään suuren kauppaliikkeen
konttorissa, mutta vaikka hänen täytyikin olla kaiket päivät kotoa
poissa, niin palvelijaa ei hän voinut ajatellakaan. Aamusilla laittoi hän
ruokaa tavallisesti koko päivää varten ja koulusta tultuaan sai Heikki
etsiä hellan uunista ja ruokakomeroista mitä sattui olemaan, kattaa
pöytänsä ja sitten taas pestä astiat ja panna kaikki paikoilleen.
Elämä oli kalseata ja rumaa… Vilua tai nälkää eivät he nähneet,
mutta usein katseli harmaanaamainen köyhyys heidän akkunastansa.
Monta kertaa päätti Heikki erota koulusta ja pyrkiä jollekin noista
ylistetyistä käytännöllisistä aloista, mutta äiti ei tahtonut kuulla
sellaisesta puhuttavankaan. Olihan hänellä enää vain puolitoista
vuotta jälellä ylioppilaaksi tuloon saakka. Jotenkin kai se aika vielä
menisi. Sitten nähtäisiin… Pari kertaa pujahti Heikki kuitenkin
sanomalehdissä ilmoitettuja paikkoja kysymään.
Ensimäinen tarjolla oleva paikka oli apteekissa. Hyväntahtoisen
näköinen vanha apteekkari silmäili nopeasti Heikin todistuksen ja
silmälasiensa takaa häntä tarkastellen ojensi sen takaisin.
— Joo, kyllähän todistus hyvä on, mutta onko teillä myöskin halua
apteekkialalle?
Sitä ei Heikki voinut vakuuttaa, hän ei tiennyt…
— Kyllähän tällä alalla voi saavuttaa kauniin tulevaisuuden.
Miettikää nyt huomiseen. Mutta palkkaa emme me toistaiseksi voi
sanottavasti maksaa.

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