Advice For The Wise - October'2011

ADVICE for the WISE

Newsletter –October’11

1

Index Page No.

Economic Update 4

Equity Outlook 8

Debt Outlook 11
Forex 13

Commodities 14

Real Estate 16

2

Dear Investor,

The month of September saw increased volatility in Global Indian equity correction was led by banks with Moody’s
markets as recession concerns gained ground in the developed cutting the debt rating of State Bank expressing concerns
part of the world. The ‘operation twist’ initiated by the Fed lead about capital adequacy and asset quality. The short term
to widespread disappointment in the markets as it clearly fell equity view remains cautious although we see value
short of investor expectations. All asset classes came under emerging in selected pockets. As markets drift down,
pressure with equities and commodities taking a bigger cut. In US, investors can look at slowly increasing the beta of their
Banks briefly led the S&P500 into bear-market territory as fears of portfolio systematically thus positioning for outperformance
contagion from Europe spread. The month end saw partial over the recovery as and when it happens. After the last
recovery as macroeconomic data improved somewhat in United correction, private sector banking space appears cheap and
States. should merit selective buying. Other higher beta sectors like
metals and capital goods could also see strong recovery on
After a very volatile September, there are signs that European hopes of stabilization in European situation .
crisis would be contained as of now. European political leadership
and Central Bank have been taking steps to firewall other euro- We continue to advise investors to lock-in the high yields in
zone members like Italy and Spain from the crisis. Unlike Greece, the fixed income space. We expect further interest rate hikes
these countries face a liquidity crisis and not solvency issues; in the next two RBI meets with a total hike of 25-50bps.
Efforts are on to recapitalize the European banking system. It is
also expected that Greece might be allowed to default in an
orderly fashion Greece thereby limiting the contagion.

3
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.19”
3

125 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225
As on 30th Change over Change over 120
115
110
Sep 2011 last month last year 105
100
95
90
BSE Sensex 16454 (1.3%) (18.0%) 85
80
75

Equity S&P Nifty 4943 (1.2%) (18.0%)
markets S&P 500 (6.7%) (0.9%) 8.80
10 yr Gsec
1131 8.30

Nikkei 225 8700 (2.8%) (7.1%) 7.80

7.30

6.80

31-May-11
29-Sep-10

29-Jan-11

28-Feb-11

31-Mar-11

30-Sep-11
30-Apr-11

30-Jun-11
29-Oct-10

29-Dec-10

31-Aug-11
29-Nov-10

31-Jul-11
10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.44% 13 bps 59 bps
Debt Markets Call Markets 8.30% 25 bps 230 bps 29000
27000
Fixed Deposit* 9.25% 0 bps 250 bps 25000
23000
21000
19000
17000
RICI Index 3463 (13.9%) 3.0% 15000
Gold

Commodity
Gold (`/10gm) 26000 (2.8%) 35.7%
markets
52.00
Crude Oil ($/bbl) 105 (8.8%) 31.9% 50.00
48.00 `/$
46.00
44.00
42.00

Forex Rupee/Dollar 48.9 (5.9%) (8.2%) 40.00

31-Dec-10

31-Aug-11
31-Oct-10
30-Nov-10

31-May-11

31-Jul-11
30-Sep-10

28-Feb-11
31-Mar-11

30-Jun-11

30-Sep-11
31-Jan-11

30-Apr-11
markets Yen/Dollar 76.6 0.2% 9.2%
* Indicates SBI one-year FD 4 4

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined sharply
in August after the rating downgrade, remained essentially unchanged in
US September at 45.4, up slightly from 45.2 in August.
• U.S. jobless claims rose less than expected in the last week keeping the
unemployment rate stagnant at 9.1 percent.

• The Eurozone purchasing managers index for the month of September is at 48.8,
lower than the previous month’s reading of 51.5. This reading marks the first
Europe decline to below the 50.0 point level since August 2009.
• Unemployment rate in the Euro zone is at 10% while the inflation is estimated at
3%. S&P has lowered the expected GDP growth to 1.1% compared to the
previous forecast of 1.5%

• Manufacturing PMI in Japan decreased to 49.3 points in September against 51.9
points seen in August.
Japan • Exports rose for the first time after the March 2011 earthquake. The increase was
2.8 percent in August from a year earlier, led by shipments of cars, which rose 5.3
percent.

• According to the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the services sector
index fell to 49.8 points in September from 53.8 in the previous month. Fifty is
Emerging the point that separates contraction (below 50) from growth (above 50).
economies • Real GDP is expected to grow by a fairly robust 6.4 percent in emerging and
developing economies (IMF Projection)
5

16.0% IIP monthly data • The GDP growth rate for Q1 FY12 came in at 7.7%, the
14.0%
12.0% weakest in last 6 quarters. The growth was seen at 7.8% in
10.0% the last quarter. The economic growth for FY11 was 8.5%
8.0% backed by improved farm output and growth in the
6.0% services sector.
4.0%
2.0% • While the manufacturing sector grew 7.2 percent in April-
0.0%
June from a year earlier, construction was a dark spot in
Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11Mar 11 Apr 11 May Jun 11 Jul 11
11 the data, rising just 1.2 percent annually, down from 7.7
• Industrial output as measured by the Index of Industrial percent a year earlier, as higher interest rates dampened
Production (IIP) dropped to a low of 3.3% in July way the housing market and big-ticket projects were plagued by
lower from the consensus estimate of 6.2% and the delays in approvals. Mining output grew 1.8 percent,
unexpectedly high rate of 8.8% in June. The figure for compared with 7.4 percent a year ago while Financing,
April has been revised downwards to 5.3% from an earlier insurance, real estate and business service grew 9.1 percent
5.8%. This data was according to the new base year versus 9.8 percent a year ago.
(2004/05), new components and weightings.
• A steady rise in interest rates combined with stubbornly
• During the month, the capital goods sector witnessed high inflation would impact demand and credit sensitive
degrowth of 15.2% (YoY) compared to a growth of 37.7% sectors making a growth target of 8% difficult to achieve.
(YoY) in June 2011. Manufacturing also slowed to 2.3%
from 10.3% in the previous month while an increase was
seen in consumer goods which increased to 6.3% from an 10.0 GDP growth
earlier 2.3%. 9.0
8.0
• The IIP figures have been very volatile in the last year and
especially after the introduction of the new series. We 7.0
believe that monthly indicators and IIP in isolation may 6.0
not a very efficient way of indicating long term growth. 5.0
We expect the growth to eventually moderate out though 4.0
high input costs may be a dampener for the FY10(Q2) FY10(Q3) FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1)
manufacturing sector. 6 6

Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs • Inflation as measured by WPI increased to a one
30.0%
Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits year high of 9.78% in August from 9.22% in July
‘11. The number for June was revised upwards
25.0%
to 9.6% from an earlier estimate of 9.4%. The
20.0%
increase was driven by increase in food and fuel
15.0% inflation. The food inflation grew to 9% from an
10.0%
8.19 last month while the fuel inflation
increased from 12.04% to 12.8%. High fuel
5.0%
Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11
prices also drove the manufacturing inflation to
7.8% from an earlier 7.5%
• Bank credit growth increased to 20.7 percent in • With the monetary tightening stance by RBI, we
August* from 19.3 percent in July* while Deposits do expect WPI inflation numbers to moderate
grew by 18.0 percent compared to 18.1 percent in out eventually.
July 2011.
10.0% Wholesale Price Index
• On account of the increasing interest rates, some
9.5%
moderation has been seen in the credit demand in
the last few months. Persistently high inflation may 9.0%

trigger a rate hike in the coming months increasing 8.5%
the borrowing costs further. 8.0%

• Moderation in the credit offtake is expected to 7.5%

continue in the coming months.

* End of period figures
7 7

The month of September has seen increased volatility in Global markets as the macro economic data indicates that developed
countries- US, Eurozone and Japan are seeing significant slowdown in growth and could be moving towards a recessionary
environment. Eurozone continues to grapple with solvency and liquidity issues. There are renewed concerns about default by Greece
and sovereign debt rating of Italy has been downgraded. There has been a sharp counter-trend rally in dollar as the risk aversion trade
plays out coinciding with significant corrections in global equities, commodities and precious metals.

In this months FOMC meeting, Fed decided to replace 400bl$ worth of short term maturity bonds with long duration one which could
help flatten the yield curve. This could put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates which lower cost of mortgage and auto
loans and help spur some demand. However, the markets were disappointed as there was no indication of further quantitative easing
although Fed Chairman continues to mention that Fed has several tools available at their disposal to spur growth and they will use it as
and when required. With a sharp slowing down in growth and political bickering in Washington, Monetary stimulus is expected to play
a bigger role in reviving US growth than what has been done so far by Fed.

IMF has aggressively cut growth forecasts for the Eurozone countries and the fiscal austerity measures being undertaken might hurt
growth further. The Markit flash Eurozone composite output PMI fell to 49.2 in September from 50.7 in August which would imply an
economic contraction; the first in more than two years. The liquidity crisis continues to play out with rising risk of Spain and Italy losing
market access. European Financial stability fund (EFSF) continues to buy government debt in the meantime. It is our view that sooner
or later, European governments might agree to some kind of fiscal consolidation and Eurobonds may be allowed. That remains the one
of the most probable long term solution to prevent a full-blown crisis and a renewed round of panic might force the governments
arrive at that earlier than expected.

In India, we have continued to see equity market correction on the back of renewed FII selling. We have seen rupee depreciating close
to 12% from its levels of 44 n August, further compounding the downside for foreign investors. The sudden weakness of the INR has
been led by the recent risk aversion globally. The worst case scenario for Indian markets would be a Sensex level of 13,500 with the
markets discounting the FY13 earnings by 10 times( PE multiple at the low of 8000 in march 2009 was 10). We don’t expect this level,
even if it comes, to sustain. The recent correction has brought the equity valuation down to very attractive levels. There is no reason to
panic and move out of equity at this point of time. With inflation and interest rates close to peaking out in the next three months, the
second half of this fiscal should be better for Indian equity. Although short term volatility may continue due to adverse global factors,
we believe that markets are very close to the bottom and it is a great time to go out and start building a long term equity portfolio.
8
8

Sector Stance Remarks
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare Overweight developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
CRAMS space

We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the
FMCG Overweight
growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.

The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. We believe Power sector to be a better play over
oEther sub sectors such as ports, roads and telecom infrastructure, because of favorable economics
E&C Neutral
under PPP model. Within power, we like the engineering companies and utilities over T&D and other
infrastructure owners because of their superior profitability and better competitive dynamics.

Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has
BFSI Neutral
good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. Despite the increasing in interest rates, we believe banks
will be able to pass on higher cost of funds to clients as demand remains strong

The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability levels
Telecom Neutral in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we
believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
9
9

Sector Stance Remarks

Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth. Raw material prices have started
Automobiles Neutral coming down which would boost margins. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural
vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.

IT space might come under pressure due to continued concerns about growth in developed parts
IT/ITES Underweight of the world. While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order
inflows might slow down in near term

We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Underweight
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.

Commodity prices are coming under pressure due to concerns about growth in developed parts
Metals Under weight
of the world. Hence a cautious stance is recommended

Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. But the issue is on the supply side.
Cement Underweight
We do see an oversupply situation for the next 3-4 quarters.

We like the growth prospects of power sector but believe that value will be created by
Power Utilities Underweight engineering services providers. Merchant power rates have been sliding downwards and coal
prices have been on the way up putting pressure on return ratios.

10

8.8 Yield curve 10-yr G-sec yield
8.60
8.7
8.40
8.6 8.20
8.5 8.00
(%)

8.4 7.80
7.60
8.3
7.40
8.2 7.20
8.1 7.00
8.0 6.80
0.0
1.0
1.9
2.9
3.9
4.8
5.8
6.7
7.7
8.6
9.6
10.6
11.5
12.5
13.4
14.4
15.4
16.3
17.3
18.2
19.2
• After a decrease in the yields last month, the 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield increased by 13 bps in
September to close at 8.44%. This was after an increase of 25 bps in the interest rates by RBI. Though
this increase had been factored in, the unexpectedly high borrowing schedule for Q2 made the yields
spike considerably towards the end of the month.

• After trading at 8.30 levels, moderation was seen in the yields of the 1 year papers post the
announcement of the borrowing plan by the Govt. The 1 year paper was trading at 8.10 levels at the
end of the month.

• With no respite from the high inflation in spite of monetary tightening, we expect another 25 - 50
bps hike in the year.
11

Category Outlook Details
We recommend investment into short term bond funds with
a 6-12 month investment horizon as we expect them to
Short Tenure deliver superior returns due to high YTM. We have seen the
Debt short term yields harden due to reduced liquidity and
consecutive rate hikes prompted by inflationary pressures. Till
these factors do not stabilize, we see Short term bond funds
and FMPs as an interesting investment option.

Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at
the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed
Credit Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also
contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at
current levels attractive.

With inflationary pressure not easing, we expect more rate hikes
in the year though these may not be implemented immediately
Long Tenure and could be limited to a couple of hikes. Moreover, these hikes
are already expected and may get factored in. Hence, we have
Debt
changed our stance from negative to neutral and believe that it
may be a good time to start looking for interesting investment
opportunities in the medium term.
12

Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
100 0
Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
0.0% 80
-5000
60
-1.0% USD GBP EURO YEN 40 -10000
20
-15000
-2.0% 0
-20 -20000
-3.0%

-4.0%

-5.0% • Exports for the month of Aug increased by 44.2% (y-o-y)
while imports increased by 41.8% over last year. The trade
-6.0%
deficit increased to USD 14 bn.
-7.0%
140000
Capital Account Balance
• In the last month, the Rupee has depreciated nearly 6
percent against the USD. The Rupee nosedived to a two year 90000

low of Rs 49.82 level in the interim before closing at Rs. 48.9
40000
per Dollar.
• The reasons for this decrease are increased demand of USD -10000
FY 10 (Q2) FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1)
by the Indian companies and weak FII inflows. The decreased
Indian Corporates currently have high level of foreign debt • Capital account balance was positive throughout FY11 and
which is due for repayment in 2011-13 and are hence facing stood at `273133 Cr. at the end of the year. For FY 12, the
repayment pressures. Increasing risk aversion and the global capital account is at `93,621Cr. for Q1.
uncertainty may also make refinancing of this debt difficult. • We expect factors as higher interest rates to attract more
• We expect the rupee to continue to weaken in the short term investments to India. Increased limits for investment by
given the continuous demand for dollars by oil importers and FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though
other corporates. uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a
dampener.
13

29000
The recent downgrade by US credit rating to AA+ by S&P has Gold
27000
triggered a bout of selling across all major asset classes 25000
barring precious metals. Gold Futures in the COMEX has 23000
climbed to a record $1700 an ounce following investors rush
Precious 21000

to the safer haven. As commodities are likely to correct 19000

Metals following global fund liquidation, any dips in gold prices 17000

15000
should be bought. Coupled with the domino effect on global
stock markets mayhem, gold is entering into a seasonally
strong fourth quarter and gold can only go up. We continue
to maintain our year-end target of $1780 an ounce.

Crude
130.0
The recent bout of global uncertainty have pressurized crude 120.0
oil amid concern of double dip recession in the US and global 110.0

economy slipping into red. We expect crude oil prices have 100.0
90.0
Oil & Gas topped out in the interim and can only move down from here 80.0
on. Although, the middle east will be hit by the falling dollar 70.0
income and might try to limit their production in order to 60.0

support prices, we believe any such temporary uptick shall not

31-May-2011
30-Sep-2010

30-Nov-2010

31-Jan-2011
28-Feb-2011

31-Mar-2011

30-Sep-2011
30-Apr-2011

30-Jun-2011

31-Jul-2011
31-Dec-2010

31-Aug-2011
31-Oct-2010
be sustained. This is obviously a positive news for the
emerging markets. Expect crude oil to remain under pressure.

14

Objective:
To generate provide enhanced upside participation in gold while mitigating any downside risk and providing capital
protection to the investor

Product Specifications
Nature of Debenture Secured, Redeemable, Non-Convertible Debentures
Opening Date 05-Oct-11
Closing Date 25-Oct-11
Deemed Date of Allotment(DDA) 07-Nov-11
Principal Protection 100%
Participation Rate 120%
Tenor 40 months
Reference Index/Asset MCX Front Month Gold Futures Price
Initial Fixing Level Official Closing level of reference index/asset on DDA
Final Fixing Level (1/36)*Σ Reference Index (i); where i=1to36M
Coupon Max{0%,PR*(Final Level/InitialLevel-1)}
Minimum Investment Rs.10,00,000 and in multiples of Rs.100,000
Placement Charges 3%+10.30%S.T on placement charges collected upfront
15

Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**
Strong pre-launch sales still keeps the developers far The demand is keeping the Tier II cities afloat, the
from any correction, though sales are down to alsmost infrastructure development in these cities have made
35% since last quarter, there is no correction visible. The the residential development spread across the city
over-supplied locations are stagnant and would be limits. On an average price is still affordable. Key
similar for the coming 2 quaters. Entry points anywhere development developer are seeing demand of 3BHK
from Rs. 3000 - Rs. 6000 per sqft in cities like Pune, NCR, and luxury development but are only doing well if the
Residential Hyderabad, Chennai and Bangalore are still considred project size is limited to 100-150 units. The trend seems
lucarative by first time home -buyers depending on their to be favorable since there is lot of Investor demand
usage. The retail investors (2nd home buyers) and HNI comes from smaller cities closer to these Tier-II & III
investors vary or delaying their decision with expectation cities. Excellent time to buy anything between Rs. 3000-
of correction. Mumbai stands still tall with prices on their 3500 sqft with known developers.
peak in over-supplied market also. Correction again are
reported only on media and not on ground level.
Advice Price point entry is the key. Good time to sell. Time right to buy, look at 3-8 acre developments only
Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious Commercial segment not that significant, but unlike
expansion approach by corporate, this segment has gone Tier-I the price differentiation is double favoring
through correction. Rates per sqft have seen almost 30% commercial since most of them are in CBD areas.
Commercial/IT down-trend and will be stagnant for the coming 2-3
quarters. Surely, the segment is at the down-tip of the
cycle, and is the best opportunity for companies looking
for long term holding of real estate office space.
Advice Excellent time to buy smaller office spaces at CBD areas Space not defined well, depends on independent needs.
16

Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**

The FDI allowance is given lot of impetus to this Retail is slow in these markets; unorganized markets
sector, its been now almost 3 years since retail has are still a hot choice. Most high-street locations are
seen a major transformation on all its business expensive to own thus have a high lease rental and
aspects and have been built to suit Indian way for have witnesses heavy churn. Investment would
consumerism. Low cost, high reach, heavy variety, always have capital protected due to dearth of
Retail less innovation, existence with competition, available space..
maximizing bottom line than top-line approach have
been making the retailers smarter. Revenue share
model with a built in MG is how the deals are done

Most interesting times, traded now more as Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit
commodity, very fastly getting absorbed, locked. since the trend of standalone homes are prevalent.
Non-real estate sector see immense opportunity
Land since it can be used as tangible and most credible
pledge against business

Advice Hold Land, if Owned Hold Land, if Owned
1. Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
2. Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
3. The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
17

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• Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
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truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio

Honest, unbiased advise
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The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained
herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness
thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions
based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting
upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated
companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from
time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades,
if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of
shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All
employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult
their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once
the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments
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Advice For The Wise - October'2011

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