AIPMM Webcast: Framework Fight Club with Sean Campbell of Cascade Insights
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The document discusses the importance of pattern recognition and foresight in product management and innovation, emphasizing that successful adaptation requires focus amidst distractions. It outlines disruptive innovation concepts, the value migration ratio, and techniques like scenario planning to anticipate market changes and competitive dynamics. Key points include the need for clear vision, attention to emerging trends, and collaboration across functions to navigate future uncertainties effectively.
![Quote
Who
made
it
“just
a
fad,
a
passing
fancy
[on
night
baseball]”
“there
is
no
reason
for
anyone
to
have
a
computer
in
their
home”
“Can’t
Act,
Can’t
Sing,
Balding,
Can
Dance
a
little”
“we
don’t
like
their
sound,
guitars
are
on
the
way
out”
“with
over
fifty
foreign
cars
already
on
sale
here
the
Japanese
auto
industry
isn’t
likely
to
carve
out
a
big
share
of
the
market
for
itself”
“no
one
will
need
more
than
637kb
of
memory,
640kb
ought
to
be
enough
for
anybody”
“Inventions
have
long
since
reached
their
limit,
I
see
no
hope
for
future
development”
“heavier
than
air
flying
machines
are
not
possible”
“I
think
there
is
a
world
market
for
perhaps
5
computers”](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/frameworkfightclub-aipmm-121130172539-phpapp02/85/AIPMM-Webcast-Framework-Fight-Club-with-Sean-Campbell-of-Cascade-Insights-34-320.jpg)
![Quote
Who
made
it
“just
a
fad,
a
passing
fancy
[on
night
baseball]”
Phil
Wrigley
(Cubs
Owner)
–
1935
“there
is
no
reason
for
anyone
to
have
a
computer
in
their
President
of
Digital
Equipment
Corporation
–
1977
home”
“Can’t
Act,
Can’t
Sing,
Balding,
Can
Dance
a
little”
Studio
Executive
–
Reacting
to
Fred
Astaire’s
Screen
Test
–
1928
“we
don’t
like
their
sound,
guitars
are
on
the
way
out”
Decca
records,
turning
down
the
Beatles
–
1962
“with
over
fifty
foreign
cars
already
on
sale
here
the
Japanese
Business
Week
–
1968
auto
industry
isn’t
likely
to
carve
out
a
big
share
of
the
market
for
itself”
“no
one
will
need
more
than
637kb
of
memory,
640kb
ought
to
Bill
Gates
be
enough
for
anybody”
“Inventions
have
long
since
reached
their
limit,
I
see
no
hope
Roman
Engineer
–
Sextus
Julius
Frontinus
for
future
development”
“heavier
than
air
flying
machines
are
not
possible”
Lord
Kelvin
–
President
of
the
Royal
Society
–
1895
“I
think
there
is
a
world
market
for
perhaps
5
computers”
IBM
Chairman
–
1943](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/frameworkfightclub-aipmm-121130172539-phpapp02/85/AIPMM-Webcast-Framework-Fight-Club-with-Sean-Campbell-of-Cascade-Insights-35-320.jpg)
AIPMM Webcast: Framework Fight Club with Sean Campbell of Cascade Insights
- 1. AIPMM Membership Benefits h6p://www.aipmm.com © AIPMM 2012
- 2. © AIPMM 2012 h#p://www.aipmm.com
- 3. Today’s Speakers Moderator: Cindy F. Solomon, CPM, CPMM Founder, Global Product Management Talk h#p://www.BlogTalkRadio.com/ProdMgmtTalk Twi#er: @ProdMgmtTalk @startupproduct @cindyfsolomon Presenter: Sean Campbell and Sco6 Swigart Cascade Insights w: www.cascadeinsights.com b: h6p://cascadeinsights.com/blog/ m: sean@cascadeinsights.com / sco6@cascadeinsights.com t: @sean_campbell © AIPMM 2012 @AIPMM #prodmgmt h#p://www.aipmm.com
- 4. FEATURED PRESENTATION © AIPMM 2012 h#p://www.aipmm.com
- 6. ¡ Contact § Cascade Insights § 18165 S. Brookstone Dr. Oregon City OR 97045 § 503 898 0004 § www.cascadeinsights.com § sean@cascadeinsights.com § www.cascadeinsights.com/request ¡ Copyright § Copyright 2012 – No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the permission of Cascade Insights LLC ¡ Our Book § At the end we’ll tell you how to get a free copy of our latest book (0ur 4th) at the end of the talk. -‐ Going Beyond Google – Gathering Internet Intelligence – 3rd edition
- 7. “Winning is based on being able to see and understand patterns quickly” -‐ Adrian Slywotsky
- 8. ¡ I’m a youth baseball coach ¡ I LOVE baseball ¡ There are a million distractions on a baseball field § Other players (at least 9) § An umpire § Other coaches § Well meaning but loud parents. ¡ To succeed in hitting a baseball that travels at 40mph to 60mph in youth baseball to upwards of 100mph you need focus and pattern recognition. ¡ “Watch the Seams”
- 14. ¡ We need to remove the extraneous from our view § Teammates on the bases, the umpire, the other coaches, etc. § Even a screaming parent or two… ¡ We need to analyze what data we collect § Where is the ball right now and where is it going? ¡ We need to have coaches who § Can give us tools to ignore what doesn’t matter and focus on what does.
- 16. All the data in the world won’t spontaneously combust into an insight.
- 18. “I want to understand if this is a disruptive innovation or not…” “The iPhone 5 sold 5m units because it is selling to the Late Majority at this point, and even some Laggards” “Here are four key success factors that we can follow regardless of which of these four futures drive our industry intersects with in three years” “The reason that Nokia is unlikely to be successful is that they are clearly in value outflow right now compared to…here’s why…”
- 19. FORESIGHT FRAMING
- 20. Observe Act Orient Decide
- 21. F16 F111 Spec Value Spec Value Length 49 feet Length 73ft Wingspan 32 feet Wingspan Spr (63ft), Swp (32) Empty Weight 18,900lbs Empty Weight 47,200lbs Crew 1 Crew 2
- 22. OUR HOPE OUR FEAR
- 23. “We’ll have to wait till next fiscal year to provide a competing solution” -‐ Longer OODA loop “Now that we’ve launched the product we’re going to focus on demand generation not CI” -‐ Longer OODA loop “I know what they would do, I used to work there” -‐ You have no idea what their OODA loop is like today just yesterday “we’ll be able to execute on that as soon as the re-‐org settles” -‐ Longer OODA loop
- 24. OUR HOPE OUR FEAR
- 28. ¡ Innovator’s Dilemma § A disruptive product that enters your customer segment from below – lower price, different criterion § A disruptive product that enters your customer segment after growing strong by feasting on a group that was previously focused on non-‐ consumption
- 29. NON-‐CONSUMPTION CHEAPER AND DOES THE JOB
- 30. ¡ Sustaining § Foster improved product performance § Can be radical change but still support the current offering § Are sold to a known customer base – does not create new markets (new value networks) ¡ Disruptive § Typically result in worse performance at the start § Different value proposition (or compete with non consumption) § Generally cheaper smaller – or non consumption – the microwave § Commercialized in niche markets § Established firms usually don’t want – nor do established customers EX
- 31. #1 Disruptive Technologies are first developed in established firms #2 Marketing personnel sought reaction from established customers #3 Established firms go back to sustaining – put weight here #4 New markets formed – disruptions born – via trial and error #5 Entrants move up market #6 Established firms try to defend #7 Entrants either build a strong base with non-‐consumption, new market, or existing value network
- 32. Company Summary Disrupted Barnes and Local retailer of overstocked books, evolved to become a powerful brick and Small Book Stores Noble mortar era retailer Bell Western Union looked aside because the signal could only go three miles (initially), Western Union Telephone but this is just what local customers needed. Best Buy Disrupted the electronics departments of large department stores (Amazon now Macy’s, Sears, etc. disrupting BestBuy) Online Disrupting traditional college curriculum Traditional Colleges Courses Dell Low cost – just in time ordering Compaq, other computer sellers Computer Department Disrupted small shop keepers – think Macy’s, Marshall Fields, etc. The small shop keeper Stores Flat Panel LCD”s originally showed up in watches and then came in at the high end to disrupt CRT monitors, etc. Monitors CRT Steamboats Originally only competed in inland waterways Sailing Ships Southwest No longer hub and spoke but lots of smaller routes, etc. Big Hub and Spoke Carriers (Delta, AA, Airlines United) Drones All kinds of market disruptions Media, Military, etc. etc. -‐ 2015
- 34. Quote Who made it “just a fad, a passing fancy [on night baseball]” “there is no reason for anyone to have a computer in their home” “Can’t Act, Can’t Sing, Balding, Can Dance a little” “we don’t like their sound, guitars are on the way out” “with over fifty foreign cars already on sale here the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big share of the market for itself” “no one will need more than 637kb of memory, 640kb ought to be enough for anybody” “Inventions have long since reached their limit, I see no hope for future development” “heavier than air flying machines are not possible” “I think there is a world market for perhaps 5 computers”
- 35. Quote Who made it “just a fad, a passing fancy [on night baseball]” Phil Wrigley (Cubs Owner) – 1935 “there is no reason for anyone to have a computer in their President of Digital Equipment Corporation – 1977 home” “Can’t Act, Can’t Sing, Balding, Can Dance a little” Studio Executive – Reacting to Fred Astaire’s Screen Test – 1928 “we don’t like their sound, guitars are on the way out” Decca records, turning down the Beatles – 1962 “with over fifty foreign cars already on sale here the Japanese Business Week – 1968 auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big share of the market for itself” “no one will need more than 637kb of memory, 640kb ought to Bill Gates be enough for anybody” “Inventions have long since reached their limit, I see no hope Roman Engineer – Sextus Julius Frontinus for future development” “heavier than air flying machines are not possible” Lord Kelvin – President of the Royal Society – 1895 “I think there is a world market for perhaps 5 computers” IBM Chairman – 1943
- 36. ¡ Managers tend to look backwards ¡ Metrics are historical by nature ¡ “3% of their time are spent building a collective vision of the future” ¡ We’re paid for what we’ve done and how we’ve cataloged it not – more often than not…
- 37. ¡ Long Standing Technique ¡ Dates to Cold War and the RAND Corporation § Called “Future Now Thinking” § Combine detailed analysis with imagination and produce reports “as people might write them in the future” ¡ Put into best practice by Shell in the 1970’s § Shell began to feel that planning six years ahead was not long enough in their industry § Began planning for 2000 in 1967
- 38. ¡ 4 major outcomes § Changed Thinking § Informed narratives about plausible futures § Improved decision making about the future § Enhanced organization capabilities
- 39. ¡ Why Scenario Planning over other approaches? § Scenarios communicate a vast amount of information in a story § Memorable information tends to be acted on § Helps address bounded rationality – inability to rationally process all possible outcomes in an environment § Reduces the cost of information transfer amongst leaders ▪ Makes information more sticky while at the same time increasing the friction amongst decision makers
- 40. ¡ Step #1 – Set the Key Question ¡ Step #2 – Define the Scope ¡ Step #3 – Identify Trends and Uncertainties ¡ Step #4 – Develop Scenarios ¡ Step #5 – Build out Key Success Factors ¡ Step #6 – Set up Monitoring
- 41. ¡ Should be forward looking ¡ Should have a reasonable time frame ¡ Examples: § Should we retain our current value proposition? § How will our rivals react to x or y? § Should we introduce a new product / service? § Can we integrate our businesses more effectively? § Will / When an particular investment pay off? § How will larger forces (tech, govt.) impact our business? § What possible futures do we need to probe? § What variables do we need to look at to aid in decision making?
- 42. ¡ Trend in this context is: § Highly impactful to the SCOPE and Highly Likely to occur or continue along it’s present path ¡ Areas to Review § Customers § Suppliers § Rivals § Partners § Market Trends ¡ Useful Framework: Porter’s Five Forces
- 43. ¡ Uncertainties in this context are: § Highly impactful to the SCOPE but are somewhat unlikely to occur § Consider ranking uncertainties via two criteria ▪ Degree of importance to success (on the Big Question) ▪ Degree of uncertainty ¡ Areas to review § Broad forces that are impacting the industry ▪ Government, Legal, Technology trends, Customer Trends – Long Term, Buying Behavior Trends, Global Trends / Impact ¡ Useful Framework: PEST, PESTEL, STEEP, LongPESTEL, etc.
- 44. ¡ Build out your scenarios § Leverage the top 2 uncertainties – making a two by two grid with an X axis (Uncertainty #1) and a Y axis (Uncertainty #2) ¡ Give each a descriptive name and a one to two paragraph narrative § How will customers, partners, and suppliers be affected in this scenarios § What forces may be strong or weak in this scenario § Is this a winning or losing scenario for us? § Is this a winning or losing scenario for our competitors? § May we see new entrants or substitutes arise in this scenario? ¡ Examples § Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 ▪ “Scramble”, “Blueprints” § Army Corp of Engineers ▪ “Plenty of Plenty”, “Cracking Up”, “New Order”, “Hard Times”
- 45. ¡ Key Success Factors § Develop a list of your own company’s success factors independent of the scenarios outlined § Develop a list of key success factors for each scenario independent of what your company’s own key success factors are today § Perform a gap analysis of the distance between the former list and the later ¡ Identify: § KSF’s that impact 2 or more scenarios at the same time § KSF’s that are the closest to your organization’s capabilities today § KSF’s that are the farthest from what capabilities your currently posses today
- 46. Paper Wins A Doctor in every home Slow Health Care Reform Fast <narrative> <narrative> <KSF’s> <KSF’s> Party like it’s 1999 Doctors go virtual <narrative> <narrative> <KSF’s> <KSF’s> Slow Growth of Telemedicine / Mobile Fast
- 47. ¡ The conclusion of the exercise is to take the Big Question (BQ) outlined earlier and “wind-‐ tunnel” it through each scenario ¡ Questions § What will we do if this is the reality? § Does the decision look good across only one or two scenarios? § What vulnerabilities have been revealed? § Does a specific scenario require a high risk strategy?
- 48. ¡ Leadership and a cross functional team must be involved to gain appropriate perspectives ¡ Should leverage outside “sources” – industry analysts, partners, distributors, customers, competitor customers ¡ Scenarios must be shared freely within the organization ¡ Resist the temptation to socialize and richly develop more than 4 scenarios ¡ Over reliance on trend data
- 49. Welcome to the Value Migration Ratio…
- 50. Inflow Stability Outflow Smartphone Cellular Phone Land Line Work from Home Automobile Amtrak (Long Haul Passenger Rail) Context Aware Computing GPS Devices (Phones, Garmin) Paper Map Makers Citizen Journalism Online News Newspapers Streaming Music Online Music Stores Brick and Mortar -‐ Music Stores Online Photo Sharing iPhoto, Aperture, Lightroom Photofinishing Services Home / Digital Health Services Outpatient Services Hospital Inpatient Services Twitter E-‐Mail Postal Mail True Voice Input Touch Screens Keyboards “value doesn’t disappear it just moves” – Adrian Slywotzky
- 51. Company VMR I/S/O Microsoft No VMR No I/S/O Intel Apple Merck Pfizer BestBuy Amazon Boeing Embrarer Walgreens Walmart
- 52. Company VMR I/S/O Microsoft 2.66 Inflow Intel 1.89 Stability Apple 3.83 Inflow Merck 2.94 Inflow BestBuy 0.39 Outflow Amazon 2.06 Inflow Boeing 0.71 Outflow Embrarer 0.90 Stability Walgreens 0.50 Outflow RIM 0.13 Outflow
- 53. ¡ Pick a publicly traded company in the industry – § Go to Google Finance § Look up their stock symbol – similar companies § Make a note of the stock tickers § Yahoo Finance § Key Statistics – Enterprise Value (includes debt) / Divided By Value § Look up the enterprise value for a bunch of different companies
- 55. ¡ Since mid part of the last century there has been a tool that you can use to see how and when people will adopt a new technology ¡ It’s called the technology adoption lifecycle ¡ It can also be used to classify a state of mind in the market ¡ Popularized by Crossing the Chasm
- 58. ¡ Innovators ¡ Early Adopters ¡ Pragmatists ¡ Conservatives ¡ Laggards
- 59. ¡ Innovators § Had the first iPhone, bothered by the iPhone 5, iOS 6, etc. Can rattle off a thousand reasons why they own not 1 but 2 or 3 phones ¡ Early Adopters § Trying to figure out what phone they should experiment with now that the iPhone has become truly mainstream and Pragmatists, Conservatives, and even some Laggards have one. ¡ Pragmatists § Happy to buy an iPhone or Android phone because that’s what everyone else around them is buying ¡ Conservatives § I just bought an iPhone 4 (or S), it’s much cheaper than the new iPhone 5 and I got a combo price from Amazon that included a car charger ¡ Laggards § I like my phone that I have now, all I need to do is send text and call people, maybe someday I’ll get an iPhone but not yet
- 61. ¡ Stall Points § “Our analysis of hundreds of stall points in leading companies has led us to the fundamental conclusion that the assumptions a management team holds most deeply-‐ -‐has known so long or so well that they are no longer actively debated-‐ -‐pose the greatest danger to growth. In other words, it's not what you know that isn't so that will stop your growth run-‐ -‐more than likely, it's what you know that's no longer so.” § “The reality, however, is that companies behave more like rocks than gliders. Our analysis of revenue growth rates in the years preceding and following stall points gives little comfort to management teams hoping for gradual descents into slow revenue growth maturity.” Stall Points: Most Companies Stop Growing Yours Doesn't Have To -‐ 2008 61
- 62. ¡ Position Captivity: failure to shift tactics in response to the advent of a low-‐cost competitor or changing customer preferences § Innovator’s Dilemma, Value Migration, Crossing the Chasm, Scenario Planning ¡ Innovation Management Breakdown: failure to achieve desired or required returns on investments in new products and services § Innovator’s Dilemma, Value Migration, Crossing the Chasm, Scenario Planning ¡ Premature Core Abandonment: failure to exploit growth opportunities in the core franchise or to adjust the business model to meet new competitive requirements § Scenario Planning, Innovators Dilemma
- 63. ¡ Build up your pattern recognition toolkit § Innovator’s Dilemma, Tech Adoption Lifecycle (Chasm), Gartner Hype Cycle, OODA, PEST, PESTEL, STEEP, LonGPESTEL, Scenario Planning, VMR, Porter’s Five Forces etc. ¡ Research patterns that have worked and those that haven’t in the history of business ¡ Create your own battle tested frameworks… § 4 Factor Benchmarking § AEP Framework § Key Buying Criteria Analysis ¡ Get Training and Mentoring on how to leverage patterns in your own business…
- 64. Question(s) Analysis Tool Analysis Frame How should we package our offering to target each “Whole Product Analysis” Industry segment in the industry (innovators, pragmatists, etc.) How does this industry create value, where can we assist Value Chain Analysis Industry in that value creation effort? Is this an attractive industry or SG to target? Five Forces Industry If we target this industry or SG where does power lie, where might we face competition? What type of customer are we targeting today? Adoption Lifecycle Industry Can we cross the chasm to reach the broader market? What broad trends are impacting this industry that we PEST, PESTEL, LonGPESTEL, Industry can connect with as part of our value proposition? STEEP, etc. How can we measure co-‐innovation risks? Co-‐Innovation Risk Industry Measurement How can we identify co-‐opetitors that will support our PARTS Industry future growth strategy?
- 65. Question(s) Analysis Tool Analysis Frame Is that (publicly traded) company about to fall off a cliff, Value Migration Ratio (VMR) Industry / Competitor fly up off the runway, etc.? Once we enter this market what will be the Wargaming Industry / Competitor competition’s moves and countermoves from a sales and marketing standpoint What are the possible futures for the industry(s) we Scenario Planning Industry / Competitor target and our competitors What type of disruptor is the competitor or industry Innovator’s Dilemma Industry / Competitor trend? – Sustaining or Disruptive? What kind of competitive disruptions lurk underfoot in this industry?
- 66. Question(s) Measurement Tool Analysis Frame What competitors target this industry? With what success? Competitive Landscape Competitor How are they viewed within the industry? Assessment Where are the competitors winning today? Key Buying Criteria Analysis Competitor What segments are they competing in that we are not? How are we perceived in those segments? Are their segments that we should play ball in that we are not today? What data do we have on lost battles in this industry? Win / Loss Studies Competitor What caused us to win in the past? How much is being paid out to competitors for their offerings? What type of strengths do we have in both hard and soft skills Mckinsey 7S Competitor areas vs. our competition? What portions of our portfolio are stars, dogs, question marks, BCG Competitor and cash cows and how does this relate to our competitors? How do we effectively track changes to our competitor ACH Competitor assumptions over time?
- 67. Question(s) Measurement Tool Analysis Frame How does feature x stack up against their feature x? Benchmarking – Product / Service Competitor What features do they have that we do not? Capabilities What are we likely to do better (and worse) than the competition in the real world? What does our support capabilities look like compared to the Benchmarking – Business Competitor competition? What is the purchasing process like? Capabilities How does their reputation all up affect their ability to execute Corporate Reputation Analysis Competitor in this market? How does feature x stack up against their feature x? Benchmarking – Product / Service Competitor What features do they have that we do not? Capabilities What are we likely to do better (and worse) than the competition in the real world? What does our support capabilities look like compared to the Benchmarking – Business Competitor competition? What is the purchasing process like? Capabilities How does their reputation all up affect their ability to execute Corporate Reputation Analysis Competitor in this market?
- 68. ¡ www.cascadeinsights.com/request ¡ To receive a copy of this presentation ¡ To get our 4th book: Going Beyond Google: Gathering Internet Intelligence – 3rd Edition ¡ To be informed about tips, tricks, and new frameworks to consider ¡ To sign up for our newsletter § What’s in our newsletter ▪ CI Tips and tricks ▪ Announcements for new podcasts ▪ Announcements for upcoming Webinars
- 69. Please Join Us Again! AIPMM Webinar Series Fridays Dec 7 FROM CHAOS TO CLARITY: MANAGING THE UNMANAGEABLE Dec 14 RULES OF REQUIREMENTS Global Product Management Talk #ProdMgmtTalk Mondays Dec 3 Google Hangout on Rules of Requirements Dec 10 Proper Product Posioning Follow h#p://www.blogtalkradio.com/prodmgm#alk Newsle6er: h#p://www.aipmm.com/subscribe LinkedIn: h#p://www.linkedin.com/company/aipmm Membership: h#p://www.aipmm.com/join.php Cerficaon: h#p://aipmm.com/html/cerOficaOon/ © AIPMM 2012 @AIPMM h#p://www.aipmm.com