Analysis of Mobilization in cities urbanization.ppt

URBAN MOBILITY: WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR
CITIES
December 2018

INTRODUCTION
DISRUPTORS IN URBAN MOBILITY
THE FUTURE OF URBAN MOBILITY
CONCLUSION

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 3
URBAN MOBILITY: WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR CITIES
Disclaimer
Much of the information in this
briefing is of a statistical nature and,
while every attempt has been made
to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be
held responsible for omissions or
errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
briefings may not totally reflect the
companies’ opinions, reader
discretion is advised.
Devising sustainable transport is
becoming a progressively
important topic for urban
planners, with 60% of the world’s
population set to be living in
cities by 2030. The late review
period saw remarkable changes
in urban mobility, influenced by
environmental, economic,
technological and social
pressures. This strategy briefing
examines the urban mobility
solutions being embraced by
cities and how urban transport
may be best structured to ensure
efficiency.
Scope
INTRODUCTION
he report will analyse the pressures surrounding urban mobility and the reasons why
cities are keen on implementing new forms of urban mobility. The report also covers
the key technological advancements helping to broaden the mobility choices available
in urban areas. Finally, the report provides case studies on how cities have introduced
new mobility solutions to better exercise effective urban mobility management.

Key findings
INTRODUCTION
Urban challenges Numerous environmental, economic, technological and social challenges are
promoting a rethink of urban mobility. Personal car ownership is no longer feasible as
cities become denser and more crowded.
Technological
disruptors
A number of technological disruptors – namely, improving battery storage capabilities,
artificial intelligence (AI), smartphones and cloud computing – underpin the arrival of
alternative urban mobility forms.
Public transportation Public transportation should form the backbone of a city’s urban transit. It is by far the
most cost-effective and efficient way of transporting people, helping to keep
congestion and pollution in check. Alternative transportation in the form of sharing
schemes should complement an integrated public transportation system.
Electrification The environmental advantages compounded by a mobility system run on electricity,
has fostered significant interest in and uptake of electric vehicles (EVs). China is a key
market: it accounted for half the global EV sales in 2017.
Mobility as a Service
(MaaS)
The implementation of MaaS has focused on providing various mobility services such
as car-sharing schemes, public transport and taxi services as a package, which can
be paid for either under a subscription service or per use.
Autonomous
vehicles
Fully autonomous vehicles are promising, yet nascent in their technology. Their place
in urban mobility is unclear since their usage may result in more cars on the road.
However, as feeder systems, they have the potential to increase urban dwellers’
inclusivity, connecting commuters to integrated public transport systems.

Understanding urban mobility
INTRODUCTION

The history of urban mobility
INTRODUCTION

Factors driving new modes of urban mobility
INTRODUCTION

rbanisation is continuing its upward
trend. By 2030, 60% of the world’s
population will be residing in cities,
leading to even more people living
in smaller spaces. Overcrowding is
particularly evident in South Asian
economies such as India, Pakistan
and Bangladesh. In 2018, Mumbai
was the most densely populated
city with over 18,000 people per sq
km.
he influx is straining city
infrastructure as more people
demand additional housing
options, transport services and
public amenities. This presents
urban planners with the challenge
as to how best to transport city
residents between home, work and
leisure in the fastest, most efficient
and cost-effective manner.
New mobility in a denser society
INTRODUCTION
In 2018-2030, Yaoundé, Cameroon’s capital, is expected to
lead global population density growth, adding 3,700 people per
sq km
Note: Data refer to 1,220 cities globally

isruptive technology contributes to products or services
that create entirely new categories or markets.
Disruptors have always appeared, altering consumer
purchasing habits, tastes and preferences. Examples
of disruptors include web-based video such as Netflix
which disrupted the market for broadcast television,
and the internet which introduced online shopping,
making physical access to shops no longer a
necessity.
rban mobility is no different. Technological innovation is
altering consumer attitudes and choices to urban
mobility. Improving battery storage is opening the
market for EVs; AI is introducing autonomous vehicles;
cloud computing is helping to make mobility solutions a
service in the cloud; and smartphone technologies
have opened the door to mobility sharing.
ome urban mobility solutions such as car-sharing have
already been embraced as modes of travel, while
others, including autonomous vehicles, are still yet to
catch on as further development and testing are still
required.
Key disruptors in urban mobility

echnological advances in battery storage and
charging have made electric cars a more practical
reality. According to the US Department of Energy,
the median range of all EVs on a single charge rose
from 73 miles in 2011 to 114 miles in 2017, thanks to
improving battery storage capabilities. Continued
battery storage improvements will usher in a new age
of urban mobility. Electric cars are heralded for their
ability to cut greenhouse gas emissions and this has
inspired governments to target subsidies and grants
for EVs.
esla has been one of the pioneers in EV
manufacturing, but competition is surging from other
American, European and Japanese companies,
including Nissan, BMW and Ford. China is becoming
a major player in EVs. In 2017, half of all electric and
hybrid vehicles were produced in China, with BYD
Auto being the leading electric car producer during
2015-2017. According to the International Energy
Agency, there will be 125 million EVs on the road in
2030, up from three million in 2017, with China set to
account for much of the growth.
Battery storage: advances pave the way for the growth of EVs
Source: European Automobile Manufacturers' Association
In Q3 2018, Tesla sells 83,500 EVs (year-on-
year growth of 219%)

BYD vies with Tesla for top spot in electric car manufacturing
In Shenzhen, 35% of households own a car in 2018, above the national average of 31%

I is the ability of computer systems to undertake the
cognitive functions usually performed by humans, such as
learning and problem-solving. AI saw tremendous growth
with a fourteenfold rise in the number of active AI start-ups
over 2000-2016 and a sixfold increase in venture capital
investments made into AI start-ups over the same period.
utonomous vehicle technology has been a major point of
interest in terms of its potential impact on urban mobility.
According to a report by not-for-profit organisation
Brookings Institute, during 2014-2018 some USD80 billion
will have been invested in self-driving vehicles from
various players in automotive electronics, microchip,
digital mapping, ride app, and artificial intelligence
companies.
ompanies such as Waymo and Tesla are key players in
autonomous vehicles; however, the technology is still
rather nascent and undergoing rigorous testing. Numerous
technical hurdles and moral dilemmas, such as
responsibility in the event of an accident, are still waiting to
be solved, especially with regard to fully autonomous
(Level 5) vehicles which involve no human oversight.
AI: autonomous vehicle technology progresses
Evaluating autonomous vehicles

Waymo Early Rider programme launches in Phoenix, Arizona
Households allocate 9% of their expenditure to transport in Phoenix in 2018

loud computing refers to the establishment of remote
servers which store data, discounting the need for
physical local infrastructure. The cloud has paved the
way for the “as a service” model which permits
anything to be provided as a service to a user. It
essentially prevents the need to physically own items
such as storage devices, vehicles or programs. For
instance, the software as a service model (SaaS) has
been used by Microsoft as a means to provide
programs on a subscription basis.
he “as a service” model can be applied to anything,
including mobility. MaaS is a new concept of urban
mobility which combines a range of private and public
mobility services into one gateway. Normally, users
can choose to pay a subscription fee or pay on-the-go
per usage.
hile the use of fully-integrated MaaS systems is low,
this urban mobility model is anticipated to revolutionise
the way people get around cities. City residents will no
longer be required to own a car, bicycle or scooter, but
will instead pay a subscription fee or pay on-the-go.
Cloud computing: introducing Mobility as a Service (MaaS)

Moovel breaks the five million users barrier in August 2018
Stuttgart’s consumer expenditure on transport will rise by 8% in real terms over 2018-2023

he arrival of the smartphone in the late 2000s marked a
paradigm shift in various segments of the economy
including marketing, consumer finance and mobility.
This technology has also underpinned the introduction
of novel urban mobility forms such as ride-sharing and
bicycle/car-sharing schemes which have proliferated
across the world, especially in developed economies.
martphones have been instrumental in driving the
growth of the sharing economy, defined as the peer-to-
peer usage or borrowing of items. For instance, the
Vélib' bicycle-sharing scheme in Paris, France, more
than doubled its fleet of bicycles to 20,000 during 2007-
2015. Smartphones have helped to increase the urban
mobility options available to users, whereas private
cars, taxis and public transport were the alternatives
previously.
s smartphone penetration rates continue to edge up in
developing economies, the range of urban mobility
services will rise. The smartphone has already been
used in countries such as Kenya to provide e-banking
services and there is the likelihood of this converging
with urban mobility.
Smartphones: app technology paves the way for mobility sharing
Switzerland has the highest household
smartphone possession rate (93%) in 2017

Mobile taxi app 99 offers new mobility options in Brazil
In 2018, 72% of households own a smartphone in Brazil

Top 13 Smartest Cities by IESE
Cities in Motion Ranking 2018
City Score/100
New York 100.0
London 99.3
Paris 90.2
Tokyo 84.4
Reykjavik 83.3
Singapore 79.5
Seoul 79.2
Toronto 78.2
Hong Kong 77.5
Amsterdam 77.4
Berlin 76.3
Melbourne 74.9
Copenhagen 74.6
Source: IESE Cities in Motion
Smarter cities, smarter travel
nterconnectedness forms the basis of the digital age. Cities are becoming
smart by utilising real time data from sensors, helping consumers make
proactive decisions that lead to more efficient lifestyles. For instance, in
2018, Kansas City launched KCMO Smart City Open Access which provides
real time data on parking and traffic flows using over 300 cameras. Users
can assess traffic flows and find available parking spots using heat charts.
mart city developments are predominant in developed markets. There were
no developing cities among the top 50 smartest cities according to the IESE
Cities in Motion ranking 2018. However, given the pace of economic growth
and technological advances in developing markets, smart developments will
filter through. An increasing point to note is the rising number of people with
access to the internet in developing markets. For example, Bangkok’s
household internet access rate rose from 12% in 2005 to 84% in 2018.

New Manila Bay, the world’s biggest smart city
The Philippines is anticipated to add 19 million people over 2018-2030

overnment subsidies have been integral to the surging uptake of electric cars. In
Norway, a USD30,800 vehicle will sell for slightly more than the import price of
USD30,500; compare this to a diesel car whose import price of USD21,200 quickly
becomes USD35,100 after VAT, carbon taxes and other taxes are accounted for.
Lower running costs, coupled with subsidies, have made it more economical for
consumers to purchase EVs, in contrast to diesel- or petrol-powered cars.
owever, in light of improving technologies and increasing mileage, some countries
are tightening their grip on EV subsidies. For instance, the UK government has
reduced its plug-in grant from USD5,800 to USD4,500 and abolished its hybrid
subsidy of USD3,200 per vehicle.
Electrification is the future but subsidies are being cut
Wuhan sees a 36% decrease in mean PM2.5 concentrations
over 2013-2016 thanks to growth in EV usage

Rise of the electric urban scooter
With mean PM2.5 concentration of 8.4 in 2017, San Francisco is among the cleanest cities globally

he introduction of alternative transportation has provided city residents with
greater choice and convenience when travelling. However, the future of urban
transit lies in integrated public transportation systems run on green energy. Public
transport is the most efficient means to carry passengers. For instance, one bus
with capacity for 60 people can remove, on average, 40 cars from the road.
lectric, biogas and solar buses have been introduced as alternatives to diesel
power. In 2018, the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency pledged to
achieve a 100% electric bus fleet by 2035. Since 2017, London’s buses have
been partially powered by waste coffee grounds, helping to reduce carbon
dioxide emissions by 10-15%.
Green public transport is the way forward for cities

Shenzhen electrifies its entire bus fleet
In 2017, Shenzhen records 3.4 billion passengers on public transport

ombined mobility encapsulates the large range of alternative transportation
available, including ride-hailing, car-pooling, and bicycle/car-sharing
schemes. Smartphones offer greater choice and flexibility in terms of
mobility. Their use complements an already well-developed and integrated
public transport system.
aaS has emerged as a novel urban mobility service. While still nascent in
its popularity, it has been officially unveiled in cities such as Helsinki,
Birmingham and Antwerp. MaaS seeks to make car ownership essentially a
thing of the past, instead allowing users to view mobility as a multimodal
service which dissuades users from the need to own a personal car.
Combined mobility is multimodal, offering door-to-door services

Whim creates new MaaS all-in-one urban mobility solution
In 2018, 89% of Helsinki’s households have access to the internet

he use of autonomous vehicles in urban transit is still a very sensitive issue given the nascent state of the
technology. In March 2018, a woman was killed by a self-driving Uber car in Tempe, Arizona, the first fatality of
its kind. Besides safety, many questions surround how to integrate autonomous vehicles effectively into the wider
sphere of urban mobility. One concern is that autonomous vehicles could increase the number of vehicles on the
road. People would bypass public transportation in favour of autonomous services for their perceived comfort.
till, autonomous vehicles can be put to better use as last mile or feeder service providers within a wider urban
transit system. They would be utilised for their ability to usher commuters from isolated and sparsely populated
locations, feeding them into a public transportation system. This system would ensure the inclusivity of people
within the urban region. Also, as autonomous vehicles are hoped to reduce personal car ownership, there will be
less demand for parking spaces, meaning existing car parks can be converted into green spaces.
Autonomous vehicles have potential as last mile/feeder services
Waymo purchases 62,000 vehicles from Fiat-Chrysler in May 2018 as it attempts to push the roll-
out of its robo-taxi service

Fare-paying taxi pilot released in Tokyo
Tokyo’s old-age dependency ratio stands at 40 in 2018, making it one of the most aged societies globally

edestrianisation refers to the removal of vehicles from city streets. Creating
urban infrastructure which is friendly to pedestrians is one of the best ways to
quell excessive car use. A number of cities have adopted a car-free
environment, including New York. In 2014, after much initial resistance, the first
section of Times Square was transformed into a pedestrian-friendly space.
ycling has also been supported for its efficiency in helping urbanites make short
journeys. Cycling awareness campaigns such as Todos en bici! (“Everyone on
a bike!”) in Rosario, Argentina, or the Cycle Etiquette campaign in London aim
to highlight the advantages of cycling and the measures required for safer
travel.
Pedestrian zones and bicycle-friendly cities
In 2018, Copenhagen is the bicycle-friendliest city globally,
according to the Copenhagenize index

Bordeaux has ambitious cycling plans
In 2018, 59% of Bordeaux’s households own a bicycle

ow and zero carbon cities are those which minimise or
are completely void of fossil fuel usage, relying instead
upon renewable energy sources. Devising an efficient
and sustainable urban mobility system is a critical
ingredient of the low/zero carbon city initiative.
According to the WHO, transportation accounts for 23%
of global emissions of carbon dioxide, while the WWF
estimates that cities generate 70% of the world’s CO2
emissions.
number of cities have pledged to move towards
operating under a net zero carbon system. Examples
include Copenhagen which has set itself the target of
becoming the first carbon neutral capital city by 2025.
Within the transport sector, the city has set its sights on
achieving 75% of all trips to be carried out by walking,
cycling and public transport.
slo aims to become carbon neutral by 2030. The city
already possesses the highest share of EVs and has
radical plans to remove all cars from its city centre by
2019. Oslo's municipal government has also pledged to
build an extra 40 miles of new bike lanes.
New urban solutions will help cities achieve low/zero carbon target
CONCLUSION
Note: “Most polluting” refers to the countries with the highest CO2
emissions from transport

he growing use of EVs is a step in the right direction.
The move away from fossil fuels towards electricity,
however, will create a challenge: namely, to ensure
an adequate supply of electricity to power transport,
not to mention industry and other sectors of the
economy.
he adoption of electric cars is low but growing fast.
According to the International Energy Agency, electric
cars made up only 0.3% of the global vehicle stock in
2017; however, this figure will shoot up to 14% by
2030. While it would be wrong to say that demand for
oil will cease, its growth will be slower compared to
electricity’s. Renewable sources of electricity (solar
and wind) have been the fastest growing energy
sources in many countries, while demand for fossil
fuel has taken a back seat. For instance, China – the
world’s largest consumer of electricity – saw its share
of electricity derived from wind surge from 0.1% in
2005 to 12% in 2018. Governments will need to
ensure that their demand for consumers to embrace
EV technology will be met with a promise to ensure
an adequate electricity supply.
Electrification will require new electricity sources
CONCLUSION
In 2018, China is set to produce 306,900,000
MWh of electricity from wind power – more
than the total electricity output of Italy

Conclusion: urban mobility of the future
CONCLUSION

Key business takeaways
CONCLUSION

FOR FURTHER INSIGHT PLEASE CONTACT
Fransua Vytautas Razvadauskas
Senior Cities Analyst
Fransua.razvadauskas@Euromonitor.com
RELATED ANLAYSIS
The Eco-City: Exploring the Green Route in Housing, Transport and Food, Sep 2018
Smart Cities: Empowering the Globe’s Urban Ecosystems, Jun 2018

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