Analytics jan 2012 final
- 1. Monthly Investment Report JANUARY 2012
- 2. Table of contents Page Analytics market comment 3 Analytics funds of funds performance tables and charts 5 Analytics funds of funds monthly return tables 9 Analytics funds of funds risk analysis 10 Peer Relative Performance 12 Asset manager performance tables 15 Analytics funds of funds asset allocation 17 Analytics Cautious Fund of Funds characteristics 18 Analytics Managed Equity Fund sector analysis 20 Analytics Managed Equity share exposure analysis 21 Disclaimer 22 2
- 3. Analytics market comment What will Mr Gordhan do? After weeks of keeping global investors waiting, the Greek government last night voted to accept another round of austerity measures so that the way can now be cleared for their European pay- masters to open the taps of the second bail-out package that is needed to avoid a disorderly de- fault next month. This acceptance of severe austerity measures followed a rejection last week by the European troika of a previous set of Greek austerity proposals that apparently left a hole of €325 million in their proposed €3.3 billion savings program. In addition to the savings outlined, the current (and future) Greek government is expected to commit in writing to the implementation of these measures. While the debate and the voting apparently took place behind an armed police cordon, riot police battled with protestors as buildings burned in Athens and violence spread across the country. Shops in Athens were looted and 34 buildings were reported as being ablaze as Greeks vented their anger at the medicine that they are being forced to swallow in return for the bail-out funds. This new agreement also provides for a bond swap to ease Greece’s debt burden by cutting the real value of some private sector holdings of Greek government debt by as much as 70%, finally offer- ing some sobering insight into the true meaning of the word “sovereign”. Greek GDP is already down by about 10% and some very tough times lie ahead for that economy and its citizens. Reuters reports that on Saturday more than 100,000 people gathered in Lisbon’s Palace Square in the largest rally against austerity and economic hardship since the country resorted to an EU-IMF bailout last May. This mass rally precedes the start this week of the next quarterly evaluation of the implementation of their bail-out and it comes amid concern that Portugal will need more bail-out funds and maybe even a debt restructuring like Greece. The yield on 10-year Portuguese govern- ment bonds rocketed all the way up to 15% in January and these yields are currently around 12.5% which is regarded as unsustainable territory and a signal that more help may be needed soon. But doubt lingers. With the prospect of a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 130% by 2020, has Greece stepped away from the precipice or (as Business Day ponders today), in the absence of its own depreciable currency, has its date with destiny merely been postponed again? The UK’s Daily Telegraph newspaper asks the question whether the successful resolution of the Greek debt talks has added to the impression that the crisis in Europe is in retreat and offers the emphatic answer that regrettably, it is a view that is almost certainly wrong, in both political and economic terms. The European Central Bank’s action of providing unlimited liquidity for the stricken European banking system has bought time, but not addressed the causes of the crisis. The problem of widely divergent competitiveness uncorrected by free-floating exchange rates remains exactly the same as before. Therefore, German-driven fiscal discipline and structural reform have become the order of the day as Greece is dragged into the 21st century. Restrictive labour laws are being dismantled and the corrupt cronyism of the political and business class is being challenged like never before. The article goes further by pointing out that European economies remain a million miles away from the convergence necessary for an effective monetary union and the breakneck speed with which Europe is now taking its medicine is proving economically disastrous. The latest data out of Greece indicate an economy in a state of almost total collapse – a death spiral of plung- ing output, multiplying bankruptcy and calamitous capital flight. The question is then posed as to how much longer Greece’s always tenuous grip on democracy can survive such an onslaught? 3
- 4. Today’s editorial in the Business Day suggests that we should welcome the Greeks who bear such important lessons for our political and economic leaders. This lead article mentions that while the Greek economy will still have a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 130% by 2020, South Africa’s cur- rent debt-to-GDP ratio is about 40% and rising, but adds that we do have a freely traded and liq- uid currency that has proved quite capable in the past of depreciating sharply when investors lose confidence in the sustainability of economic policy. Having digested President Zuma’s State of the Nation speech last week, there are some doubts as to whether the government can imple- ment its ambitious and much-needed infrastructure investment program while simultaneously expanding the world’s most extensive welfare payment system, cutting the cost of doing business in SA, and preventing corrupt state officials from plundering the coffers – all while avoiding the temptation to allow our debt to keep rising towards that crucial level of 60% of GDP (even though it is a level to which many European countries still aspire!). The article ends off by suggesting that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will paint a clearer pic- ture when he delivers his budget speech later this month even though there are too many contra- dictions between government policy, what is happening on the ground, and the promises Mr Zuma keeps on making. It is not possible to please all the people all the time indefinitely, as Greece’s politicians are seeing now. Our Finance Ministry has a history of prudence and discipline and there is no reason for this track record to be broken – the stark lessons from Europe are just too painful. The delicate balance between social responsibility and economic growth stimulus is something that has been baked into South African fiscal and monetary policy over the last 17 years – but some compromise is always necessary. The widespread social unrest that is currently part and parcel of the European push to austerity, coming on the heels of food riots in Asia not so long ago, the “Arab Spring” and the “OCCUPY” movement suggests that there must be a more serious global focus on social issues, a complete antithesis to what is happening in Europe at the mo- ment. There are too many unanswered questions, differences of opinion, possible end-games and oppor- tunities for political “one-upmanship” to expect global market volatility to subside any time soon. However, the fact that equity markets look ahead and sometimes see through seemingly serious events means that we should always remain alert for investment opportunities in risky assets. 4
- 5. Analytics funds of funds performance tables Snapshot of returns 1 3 6 12 24 36 60 Jan-12 month months months YTD months months months months Analytics Cautious Fund of Funds Actual fund 1.73% 2.07% 3.67% 1.73% 4.29% 7.09% 8.17% 6.80% CPI 0.51% 1.53% 3.05% 0.51% 6.11% 4.78% 5.30% 6.47% Analytics Moderate Fund of Funds Actual fund 2.73% 2.79% 5.13% 2.73% 5.08% 9.57% 11.80% 6.12% CPI 0.51% 1.53% 3.05% 0.51% 6.11% 4.78% 5.30% 6.47% Analytics Balanced Fund of Funds Actual fund 3.34% 3.33% 6.54% 3.34% 6.69% 11.69% 14.37% 6.33% CPI 0.51% 1.53% 3.05% 0.51% 6.11% 4.78% 5.30% 6.47% Analytics Flexible Fund of Funds Actual fund 1.68% 1.54% 5.14% 1.68% 1.92% 5.06% 3.86% 1.83% CPI 0.51% 1.53% 3.05% 0.51% 6.11% 4.78% 5.30% 6.47% Analytics Managed Equity Fund Actual fund 5.02% 4.52% 8.40% 5.02% 9.25% 15.00% 20.43% 7.40% FTSE/JSE All Share Index 5.73% 4.79% 10.09% 5.73% 10.83% 15.64% 21.20% 8.82% All returns refer to A-class returns and returns for periods more than 12 months are annualised. The returns on the FTSE/JSE All Share Index are total returns. The CPI numbers for periods shorter than 12 months have been computed on a pro-rata basis, using a one-month lagged annual CPI value. Since inception Compound return Annualised return Period Analytics Cautious Fund of Funds Actual fund 171.6% 11.3% Oct 2002 - Jan 2012 Analytics Moderate Fund of Funds Actual fund 237.0% 12.2% Jul 2001 - Jan 2012 Analytics Balanced Fund of Funds Actual fund 442.72% 13.3% Jul 98 - Jan 2012 Analytics Flexible Fund of Funds Actual fund 309.97% 10.9% Jul 98 - Jan 2012 Analytics Managed Equity Fund Actual fund 382.31% 16.3% Sep 2001 - Jan 2012 5
- 6. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 50.00 Jun-01 Sep-01 Sep-02 Dec-01 Dec-02 Mar-02 Mar-03 Jun-02 Jun-03 Sep-02 Sep-03 Dec-02 Dec-03 Mar-03 Mar-04 Jun-03 Jun-04 Sep-03 Sep-04 Dec-03 Mar-04 Dec-04 Jun-04 Mar-05 Sep-04 Jun-05 Dec-04 Sep-05 Mar-05 Dec-05 Jun-05 Mar-06 Analytics Cautious FoF A Analytics Mode rate FoF A Sep-05 Jun-06 Dec-05 Sep-06 Mar-06 6 Jun-06 Dec-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Inflation Inflation Dec-06 Jun-07 Mar-07 Sep-07 Jun-07 Dec-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Cash Dec-07 Cash Jun-08 Mar-08 Since inception: Analytics Cautious Fund of Funds Sep-08 Jun-08 Since inception: Analytics Moderate Fund of Funds Dec-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Analytics funds of funds performance charts Mar-09 Jun-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 After-Tx cash After-Tx cash Sep-09 Dec-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Mar-10 Jun-10 Analytics Cautious FOF A since inception vs. Inflation and Cash Analytics Moderate FOF A since inception vs. Inflation and Cash Jun-10 Sep-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Mar-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Dec-11
- 7. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 50 0 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Jun-98 Jun-98 Oct-98 Oct-98 Feb-99 Feb-99 Jun-99 Jun-99 Oct-99 Oct-99 Feb-00 Feb-00 Jun-00 Jun-00 Oct-00 Oct-00 Feb-01 Feb-01 Jun-01 Jun-01 Oct-01 Oct-01 Feb-02 Feb-02 Jun-02 Jun-02 Oct-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Feb-03 Jun-03 Jun-03 A nalytics Flexible FoF A Analytics Balanced FoF A Oct-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Feb-04 Jun-04 Jun-04 7 Oct-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Feb-05 Inflation Inflation Jun-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Feb-06 Jun-06 Jun-06 Cash Oct-06 Cash Oct-06 Since inception: Analytics Flexible Fund of Funds Feb-07 Feb-07 Since inception: Analytics Balanced Fund of Funds Jun-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Feb-08 Analytics funds of funds performance charts Jun-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Oct-08 After-Tx cash After-Tx cash Feb-09 Feb-09 Jun-09 Jun-09 Analytics Flexible FOF A since inception vs. Inflation and Cash Oct-09 Oct-09 Analytics Balanced FOF A since inception vs. Inflation and Cash Feb-10 Feb-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Feb-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Oct-11
- 8. Analytics funds of funds performance charts Since inception: Analytics Managed Equity 600 Analytics Managed Equity since inception vs. Inflation, Cash and ALSI 500 400 300 200 100 0 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Aug-01 Nov-01 May-02 Aug-02 Nov-02 May-03 Aug-03 Nov-03 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Analytics Managed Equity A Inflation Cash After-Tx cash ALSI Rolling 12 month return patterns 80% 60% Rolling 12 month returns 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep- CFOFS MFOFS BFOFS FOFS MANE 8
- 9. Analytics funds of funds monthly return tables ANALYTICS CAUTIOUS FUND OF FUNDS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD 2005 0.60% 2.47% -0.41% -0.55% 2.53% 1.27% 3.12% 0.95% 2.43% -0.37% 1.23% 3.15% 17.60% 2006 3.59% 0.55% 2.12% 0.87% -1.79% -1.34% 0.03% 2.33% 0.88% 2.32% 2.10% 1.90% 14.28% 2007 2.20% 1.07% 2.26% 2.18% -0.08% -0.86% 0.62% 0.42% 1.74% 2.09% -1.10% -0.40% 10.53% 2008 -1.11% 2.55% 0.47% -0.13% 0.84% -1.04% -0.49% 1.69% -1.78% -1.32% 0.68% 1.55% 1.82% 2009 -0.29% -2.27% 1.66% 0.70% 1.84% -0.32% 3.27% 2.01% 0.79% 1.66% -0.16% 1.28% 10.53% 2010 -0.45% 1.24% 2.09% 0.81% -1.40% -0.57% 2.28% -0.36% 3.01% 1.37% 0.12% 1.81% 10.31% 2011 -0.75% 0.25% 0.64% 1.01% -0.16% -0.35% -0.79% 0.37% -1.24% 2.46% -0.09% 0.42% 1.74% 2012 1.73% 1.73% ANALYTICS MODERATE FUND OF FUNDS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD 2005 1.17% 3.51% -0.47% -2.45% 5.87% 1.53% 5.67% 1.21% 3.79% -0.41% 1.28% 4.87% 28.32% 2006 5.72% 0.25% 3.71% 1.59% -2.30% -0.45% -0.86% 4.41% 2.49% 3.06% 3.28% 3.49% 26.92% 2007 3.43% 1.31% 3.89% 3.46% -0.29% -1.59% 0.48% 0.23% 2.71% 4.06% -2.80% -1.80% 13.54% 2008 -4.52% 5.29% -0.44% -0.14% 1.23% -3.37% -2.50% 2.58% -6.05% -5.04% -0.04% 2.21% -10.87% 2009 -1.57% -4.77% 3.21% 1.35% 3.62% -0.64% 5.52% 3.19% 1.15% 2.60% -0.29% 2.31% 16.36% 2010 -1.55% 1.51% 3.86% 0.96% -3.00% -1.73% 4.12% -1.43% 5.28% 2.16% 0.31% 2.77% 13.67% 2011 -1.03% 0.68% 0.66% 1.17% -0.09% -0.96% -1.49% -0.08% -1.54% 3.96% -0.34% 0.40% 1.23% 2012 2.73% 2.73% ANALYTICS BALANCED FUND OF FUNDS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD 2005 1.12% 3.93% -0.45% -2.94% 6.38% 1.62% 6.40% 1.33% 4.57% -0.88% 1.61% 5.36% 31.34% 2006 6.52% 0.09% 4.07% 1.75% -2.83% -0.39% -0.86% 4.60% 2.46% 3.39% 3.51% 3.99% 29.21% 2007 3.52% 1.22% 4.28% 3.51% -0.10% -1.56% 0.40% 0.22% 2.85% 4.56% -3.26% -2.19% 13.88% 2008 -5.65% 6.15% -0.79% -0.12% 1.29% -4.16% -3.24% 2.90% -7.74% -6.72% -0.32% 2.76% -15.44% 2009 -2.35% -5.96% 4.12% 1.76% 4.54% -0.74% 6.63% 3.77% 1.40% 3.07% -0.38% 2.68% 19.43% 2010 -1.95% 1.68% 4.49% 1.02% -3.48% -2.21% 5.22% -1.99% 6.55% 2.54% 0.37% 3.43% 16.19% 2011 -1.31% 1.01% 0.75% 1.39% 0.02% -1.25% -1.74% -0.39% -1.66% 5.26% -0.57% 0.56% 1.88% 2012 3.34% 3.34% ANALYTICS FLEXIBLE FUND OF FUNDS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD 2005 1.34% 3.45% 0.08% -3.18% 6.56% 1.18% 6.11% 0.86% 4.07% -0.37% 1.18% 4.30% 28.26% 2006 5.66% -0.32% 3.64% 1.91% -1.30% 1.62% -1.11% 4.01% 3.52% 1.88% 3.00% 2.99% 28.41% 2007 3.13% 1.04% 3.96% 2.57% 0.29% -1.18% 0.34% 0.07% 1.48% 1.26% -1.79% -1.23% 10.22% 2008 1.44% 4.55% 2.42% -2.64% 1.95% -2.37% -7.81% 1.99% -5.03% -1.29% -2.00% -0.61% -9.63% 2009 1.18% -6.19% -0.63% -3.10% 3.02% -2.71% 6.64% 3.47% 0.29% 2.77% -2.00% 0.96% 3.08% 2010 -0.38% 2.31% 0.68% 1.06% -3.78% -2.07% 1.82% -1.26% 3.11% 2.53% 0.49% 0.70% 5.09% 2011 2.67% -0.38% -0.49% 0.41% 0.43% -1.40% -1.66% -0.43% 1.75% 2.20% 0.44% -0.57% 2.91% 2012 1.68% 1.68% ANALYTICS MANAGED EQUITY FUND Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD 2005 1.16% 5.07% -1.26% -3.96% 7.51% 2.37% 8.92% 1.66% 6.73% -2.40% 3.28% 6.74% 41.05% 2006 8.90% -0.40% 4.69% 2.11% -4.58% -0.24% -0.52% 4.57% 2.26% 4.91% 4.08% 5.90% 35.77% 2007 3.50% 1.02% 5.31% 3.93% 0.49% -1.48% 0.24% 0.16% 3.15% 6.26% -4.34% -3.13% 15.53% 2008 -8.61% 8.20% -1.74% 1.69% 2.15% -5.22% -4.50% 2.78% -10.81% -10.53% -1.48% 3.94% -23.27% 2009 -4.49% -7.96% 7.14% 3.97% 7.53% -0.16% 7.71% 4.65% 1.78% 3.66% 0.10% 3.77% 29.87% 2010 -2.88% 1.09% 6.34% 1.10% -4.13% -2.98% 6.79% -3.10% 9.02% 3.10% 0.11% 5.82% 20.98% 2011 -2.82% 2.42% 1.06% 1.75% -0.09% -1.79% -2.48% -0.84% -3.53% 8.43% -0.86% 0.38% 1.09% 2012 5.02% 5.02% 9
- 10. Analytics funds of funds risk analysis Drawdown and timing estimates Jan-12 Drawdown Month(s) Analytics Cautious Fund of Funds -3.13% May 06/June 06 Analytics Moderate Fund of Funds -11.13% Sep 08/Nov 08 Analytics Balanced Fund of Funds -14.78% Sep 08/Nov 08 Analytics Flexible Fund of Funds -17.55% Dec 02/Apr 03 Analytics Managed Equity Fund -22.82% Sep 08/Nov 08 Drawdown is defined here as the maximum peak to trough drop in the unit price of a fund over its history, irrespective of the time period involved. It is must be remembered that many funds will define drawdown as the maximum MONTHLY negative return over the history of the fund. Current annualised volatility The current annualised volatility of the five Analytics funds is provided in the table below. The annualised volatility is that of the monthly returns for each fund. Jan-12 Volatility (%) Current Low High Analytics Cautious Fund of Funds 3.57% 3.18% 6.10% Analytics Moderate Fund of Funds 5.62% 4.76% 13.80% Analytics Balanced Fund of Funds 7.14% 5.74% 16.62% Analytics Flexible Fund of Funds 4.25% 4.25% 18.56% Analytics Managed Equity Fund 11.55% 7.80% 24.12% All risk adjusted returns plotted in the charts have been calculated by dividing rolling 12 month nominal returns by the rolling 12 month volatility. 10
- 11. Rolling 12 month volatility for the Analytics Funds of Funds 28% 24% 20% Rolling 12 month volatility 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep- CFOFS MFOFS BFOFS FFOFS MANE Rolling 60 month risk-adjusted returns for the Analytics Funds of Funds 4 Rolling 60 month risk adjusted returns 2 0 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 CFOFS MFOFS BFOFS MANE 11
- 12. Rolling 60 month risk/return scatter graph for the Analytics Cautious FOF, Analytics Moderate FOF and the Analytics Balanced FOF 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% Annualised Return 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% Annualised Risk Cautious FOF Moderate FOF Balanced FOF Managed Equity All Share Index Peer Relative Performance Analytics Cautious Fund of Funds Asset Allocation Prudential Low Equity: Returns of selected Funds for periods to January 2012 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% Quartile 1 limit Analytics Cautious FoF B 2.00% None Quartile 2 limit Quartile 3 limit 0.00% 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 12
- 13. Analytics Moderate Fund of Funds Asset Allocation Prudential Medium Equity: Returns of selected Funds for periods to January 2012 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% Quartile 1 limit 4.00% Analytics Moderate FoF B None 2.00% Quartile 2 limit Quartile 3 limit 0.00% 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Analytics Balanced Fund of Funds Asset Allocation Prudential High Equity: Returns of selected Funds for periods to January 2012 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% Quartile 1 limit 4.00% Analytics Balanced FoF B None 2.00% Quartile 2 limit Quartile 3 limit 0.00% 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 13
- 14. Analytics Managed Equity Domestic Equity General: Returns of selected Funds for periods to January 2012 25.00% 20.00% Quartile 1 limit Analytics Managed Equity B 15.00% None Quartile 2 limit Quartile 3 limit 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 14
- 15. Asset manager performance tables Snapshot of returns ANALYTICS CAUTIOUS FUND OF FUNDS 1 3 6 12 24 36 60 Jan-12 month months months months months months months Current Managers Analytics Managed Equity Fund 5.02% 4.52% 8.40% 9.25% 15.00% 20.43% 7.41% Old Mutual SA Quoted Property Fund 4.58% 5.54% 9.00% 17.63% 19.54% 18.05% 12.05% Stanlib Bond Fund 2.02% 2.98% 7.53% 14.63% 14.23% 9.85% 9.21% Prudential Money Market Fund 0.45% 1.30% 2.67% 5.40% 6.02% 6.85% 8.43% Investec Diversified Income Fund 0.41% 1.14% 7.26% 10.51% 9.96% n/a n/a Investec Global Strategic Managed Fund 0.49% -1.64% 6.74% 4.21% 6.47% 3.85% 1.31% ANALYTICS MODERATE FUND OF FUNDS 1 3 6 12 24 36 60 Jan-12 month months months months months months months Current Managers Analytics Managed Equity Fund 5.02% 4.52% 8.40% 9.25% 15.00% 20.43% 7.41% Old Mutual SA Quoted Property Fund 4.58% 5.54% 9.00% 17.63% 19.54% 18.05% 12.05% Stanlib Bond Fund 2.02% 2.98% 7.53% 14.63% 14.23% 9.85% 9.21% Prudential Money Market Fund 0.45% 1.30% 2.67% 5.40% 6.02% 6.85% 8.43% Investec Diversified Income Fund 0.41% 1.14% 7.26% 10.51% 9.96% n/a n/a Investec Global Strategic Managed Fund 0.49% -1.64% 6.74% 4.21% 6.47% 3.85% 1.31% ANALYTICS BALANCED FUND OF FUNDS 1 3 6 12 24 36 60 Jan-12 month months months months months months months Current Managers Analytics Managed Equity Fund 5.02% 4.52% 8.40% 9.25% 15.00% 20.43% 7.41% Old Mutual SA Quoted Property Fund 4.58% 5.54% 9.00% 17.63% 19.54% 18.05% 12.05% Stanlib Bond Fund 2.02% 2.98% 7.53% 14.63% 14.23% 9.85% 9.21% Prudential Money Market Fund 0.45% 1.30% 2.67% 5.40% 6.02% 6.85% 8.43% Investec Global Strategic Managed Fund 0.49% -1.64% 6.74% 4.21% 6.47% 3.85% 1.31% ANALYTICS FLEXIBLE FUND OF FUNDS 1 3 6 12 24 36 60 Jan-12 month months months months months months months Current Managers Analytics Managed Equity Fund 5.02% 4.52% 8.40% 9.25% 15.00% 20.43% 7.41% Stanlib Bond Fund 2.02% 2.98% 7.53% 14.63% 14.23% 9.85% 9.21% Investec Global Strategic Managed Fund 0.49% -1.64% 6.74% 4.21% 6.47% 3.85% 1.31% Prudential Money Market Fund 0.45% 1.30% 2.67% 5.40% 6.02% 6.85% 8.43% 15
- 16. Asset manager performance tables ANALYTICS FUNDS OF FUNDS 1 3 6 12 24 36 60 Jan-12 month months months months months months months Shadow Managers Prudential Enhanced SA Property Tracker Fund 4.62% 5.50% 8.44% 18.23% 21.49% 19.26% 13.49% Investec Property Fund 4.73% 5.58% 8.51% 16.69% 19.50% 16.97% 12.70% Investec Gilt Fund 1.93% 2.70% 6.30% 12.44% 12.24% 8.41% 8.59% Investec Opportunity Income Fund 1.01% 2.12% 4.24% 8.68% 9.30% 8.24% 9.16% Coronation Strategic Income Fund 0.77% 2.15% 5.91% 10.72% 10.66% 10.12% 9.27% Foord International Trust Fund -1.62% -2.12% 10.80% 6.63% 6.52% 0.88% 4.46% Coronation Global Managed Fund 1.20% 0.40% 14.04% 12.64% 7.92% n/a n/a Watchlist Managers Coronation Property Equity Fund 4.56% 4.64% 8.17% 17.14% 20.41% 18.86% 11.94% Nedgroup Flexible Income Fund 0.46% 1.26% 5.96% 10.11% 8.33% 8.07% 9.64% Cadiz Absolute Yield Fund 1.36% 2.63% 4.97% 9.57% 9.70% 9.68% 10.44% Old Mutual Enhanced Income Fund 0.82% 2.19% 4.21% 8.27% 8.34% 7.83% 8.40% Allan Gray Orbis Global Fund of Funds -1.08% -2.02% 10.42% 3.79% 0.89% -0.94% 4.54% Sarasin Equisar Global Thematic Fund (Rands) 0.15% -3.36% 7.32% 6.76% -1.00% 6.15% 1.62% ANALYTICS MANAGED EQUITY FUND 1 3 6 12 24 36 60 Jan-12 month months months months months months months Current Managers Cadiz Equity Fund (seg) 5.77% 6.12% 10.92% 10.58% 15.23% 21.82% 7.56% Coronation Equity Fund (seg) 4.99% 5.14% 10.36% 14.45% 20.20% 27.01% 13.17% Investec Equity Fund (seg) 4.32% 4.08% 9.42% 13.57% 15.46% 18.04% 8.07% Old Mutual Mining & Resources Fund (UT) 6.62% 2.65% 2.35% -5.82% 5.86% 19.12% 10.32% Shadow Managers Mi-Plan Beta Equity Fund 4.86% 5.27% 10.07% 11.59% 15.27% 20.24% 7.39% Nedgroup Investments Value Fund 6.42% 6.73% 10.15% 11.07% 16.84% 23.22% 11.35% Nedgroup Investments Rainmaker Fund 4.99% 5.00% 10.44% 12.27% 16.27% 20.15% 8.72% Investec Commodity Fund 7.23% 5.11% 9.46% 3.97% 10.39% 16.50% 9.29% Watchlist Managers SIM Equally Weighted Top 40 Fund 5.75% 4.42% 10.53% 11.76% n/a n/a n/a SIM Dividend Plus Index Fund 6.31% 9.60% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Stanlib ALSI40 Fund 6.09% 3.65% 10.36% 9.78% 14.57% 20.15% 8.08% 16
- 17. Analytics funds of funds asset allocation Analytics Cautious FOF 21.5% 18.6% 7.1% 26.0% 26.8% Equity Property Bonds Cash Offshore Analytics Moderate FOF 18.6% 2.4% 45.5% 25.8% 7.8% Equity Property Bonds Cash Offshore Analytics Balanced FOF 21.7% 2.1% 10.1% 56.6% 9.4% Equity Property Bonds Cash Offshore Analytics Flexible FOF 32.0% 56.1% 0.0% 7.8% 4.1% Equity Property Bonds Cash Offshore 17
- 18. Analytics Cautious Fund of Funds characteristics Fixed income asset classes Stanlib Bond 4.8% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 34.1% 51.1% Cash Floating Rate Notes Government Bonds Non-government Bonds Inflation Linked Bonds Preference Shares Foreign Fixed Interest Property Investec Diversified Income 2.2% 17.5% 19.7% 0.0% 6.7% 16.4% 16.0% 21.4% Cash Floating Rate Notes Government Bonds Non-government Bonds Inflation Linked Bonds Preference Shares Foreign Fixed Interest Property Analytics Cautious FOF 0.0% 9.5% 1.0% 4.6% 35.0% 22.0% 7.9% 19.9% Cash Floating Rate Notes Government Bonds Non-government Bonds Inflation Linked Bonds Preference Shares Foreign Fixed Interest Property 18
- 19. Maturity spread analysis Stanlib Bond 10.0% 18.8% 0.1% 20.0% 51.1% 0-1 yr 1-3 yr 3-7 yr 7-12 yr 12+ yr Investec Diversified Income 31.1% 36.3% 7.0% 9.5% 16.1% 0-1 yr 1-3 yr 3-7 yr 7-12 yr 12+ yr Analytics Cautious FOF 20.3% 44.1% 17.7% 10.2% 7.8% 0-1 yr 1-3 yr 3-7 yr 7-12 yr 12+ yr 19
- 20. Analytics Managed Equity Fund sector analysis Managed Equity Fund sector allocation January 2012 December 2011 41.5% 39.4% 42.0% 39.7% 19.1% 18.3% Resources Financials Industrials Resources Financials Industrials Underlying manager sector allocation Cadiz Coronation 37.44% 34.24% 41.62% 42.10% 20.94% 23.66% Resources Financials Industrials Resources Financials Industrials Investec Old Mutual Mining & Resources 0.00% 6.67% 36.65% 49.81% 13.54% 93.33% Resources Financials Industrials Resources Financials Industrials 20
- 21. Analytics Managed Equity Fund share exposure analysis Top 10 shares in Analytics Managed Equity Fund Dec-11 % of Equity Only Jan-12 % of Equity Only SHARE Total SHARE Total SASOL 10.48% SASOL 10.29% MTN GROUP 8.42% ANGLO 7.99% ANGLO 7.98% MTN GROUP 7.55% BHPBILL 7.05% BHPBILL 7.09% STANBANK 3.94% NASPERS -N 4.62% NASPERS -N 3.74% STANBANK 4.11% SAB 3.34% FIRSTRAND 3.07% FIRSTRAND 2.76% SAB 2.98% BRITISH AM. TOBACCO 2.71% BRITISH AM. TOBACCO 2.63% BIDVEST 2.22% BIDVEST 2.32% 21
- 22. Disclaimer The information and opinions contained in this document are recorded and expressed in good faith and in reliance on sources believed to be credible. No representation, warranty, undertaking or guarantee of whatever nature is given on the accuracy and/or complete- ness of such information or the correctness of such opinions. Analytics will have no liability of whatever nature and however arising in respect of any claim, damages, loss or ex- penses suffered directly or indirectly by the investor acting on the information contained in this document. Furthermore, due to the fact that Analytics does not act as your financial advisor, we have not conducted a financial needs analysis and will rely on the needs analysis conducted by your financial advisor. We recommend that you take particular care to consider whether any information contained in this document is appropriate given your objectives, financial situation and particular needs in view of the fact that there may be limitations on the appropriateness of the advice provided. No guarantee of investment per- formance or capital protection should be inferred from any of the information contained in this document. Portfolio Analytics (Pty) Ltd and Portfolio Analytics Consulting (Pty) Ltd are authorised financial services providers. Unit trusts are generally medium to long term investments. The value of units go up as well as down and past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. Should a portfolio have underlying international investments, fluctuations or movements in ex- change rates cause the value of those underlying investments to go up or down. Unit trusts are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available on request from Investec Fund Managers SA Limited. Commission and incentives may be paid and if so, would be included in the overall costs. Different classes of units apply to these portfolios and are subject to different fees and charges. A fund of fund unit trust only invests in other unit trusts, which levy their own charges, which could result in a higher fee structure for those portfolios. Forward pricing is used. Unit trust prices are calculated on a net as- set value basis, which is the total value of all assets in the portfolio including any income accrual and less any permissible deductions from the portfolio. Quantifiable deductions are the initial fee and annual management fee indicated above whilst non-quantifiable de- ductions included in the net asset value price comprise brokerage, , auditor's fees, bank charges, trustee and custodian fees.. Fund valuations take place at approximately 17h00 SA time each day. Purchase and repurchase requests must be received by the Manager by 16h00 SA time each business day. The Analytics portfolios are Collective Investment Schemes in securities, established and administered by Investec Fund Managers SA Limited a Member of the Association of Col- lective Investment Schemes, who appointed Analytics as its authorised agent to solicit in- vestments in the portfolio and to manage the portfolio. The relationship between Investec Fund Managers SA Limited and Analytics is governed by the Act, the Deed and formal writ- ten agreements. Trustee - FirstRand Bank (011) 371 2111. Analytics Tel: (011) 463-9600 Fax: (011) 463-8279. Website: www.analytics.co.za 22