Asessing the threat of terrorist use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons in the South-East European Countries

485
Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology 11, No 2, 485–498 (2010)
Risk assessment
*
For correspondence.
Assessing the threat of terrorist use of
chemical, biological, radiologicaland nuclear
weapons in the South-east European Countries
M. Chalarisa
*, P. Stavrakakisb
, P. Sarafisc
a
Hellenic Fire Corps Headquarters, Direction Health and Safety, 31 Piraeus
Street, 10 553 Athens, Greece
E-mail: mchalaris@chem.uoa.gr
b
Hellenic National Defense General Staff, CIMIC-SEDM Directorate,
Stratopedo Papagou, 15 500 Holargos, Athens, Greece
E-mail: stabanos@yahoo.gr
c
Athens Naval and Veterans Hospital-Infections Diseases and Tropical Medicine
Department, LMU, Munich, Germany, 14 Ap. Ellinon Street, 15 343 Athens,
Greece
E-mail: psarafis@med.uoa.gr
Abstract. Many scientists and politics argued that ‘tomorrow’s threat may include the use of chemi-
cals, bacteriological agents, radioactive materials and even nuclear technology. In the present paper we
describe the Risk Assessment Analysis of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN)
threat in the EU emphasised in South-east European countries. This paper draws upon material avail-
able in the public domain to address three questions: What are chemical, biological, radiological
and nuclear weapons, and how available are they?; What could terrorists do with CBRN?, and Why
and how serious is the danger overall? Nowadays, the most serious threats considered to be, firstly,
the chemical and biological, and secondly the nuclear. The dissemination of CBRN as weapons of
mass destructioon (WMD) is one of the most crucial issues of international security. The vivid effu-
sion of this phenomenon in the region of Middle East and North Africa has possible consequences
limited within the boundaries of this particular region. The terrorist organisations considered to
be, by governments and the international community, a possible threat. In such a framework of the
international environment, South-east European countries seems to live in. These countries, through
their participation in international organisations exercise pressure for the termination, reduction and
control of the accession of CBRN weapons. In this paper, are presented the most crucial proposals
that could offer solutions to the present institutional framework which rules the risk assessment
procedure on European, regional and national level.
Keywords: chemical, biological, radiological nuclear threats, assessment.
AIMS and background
Risk assessment is a tool used in risk management to help understand risks and
inform the election and prioritisation of prevention and control strategies1
. The

486
aim of this paper is to account for the ‘CBRN threat’ to the South-east European
countries (SEEC). The paper does not attempt a comprehensive analysis of all of
the states, organisations and individuals who possess and might be inclined to use
such weapons against the SEEC. The premise is that the availability and effect of
CBRN are reasonably knowable, as is – in a very general sense – the vulnerability
of the SEEC to such use. The outline of the paper is a follows. The geopolitics
analysis and what are chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons and
how available are they, are presented. The paper continues by showing the evolu-
tion of the EU interest in and sensitivity to the dangers of CBRN proliferation and
use. Moreover, there is a brief discussion of the notion of ‘threat’. According to
the traditional rules of threat assessment, ‘capabilities’ alone are insufficient, and
focusing on them in isolation can only lead to worst-case analysis, rather than a
balanced assessment. Finally, our main conclusion is summarised.
Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons pose the one
of the most serious threats to the SEEC and their foreign interests (see Fig. 1). Bal-
listic and cruise missiles, aircraft, covert forces, and terrorist groups are considered
possible means of delivering these weapons of mass destruction. The total number
of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons stockpiled throughout
the world is decreasing as the major powers scale back their inventories, but some
additional countries and groups are trying to acquire these weapons. The EU and
SEEC and allied policy-makers debate the rate of proliferation and the nature and
extent of the threat to the EU–SEEC and their allies, and the weapons effects on
international stability. These issues and the policy preferences of various segments
of the security policy communities in the SEEC and overseas have led to mark-
edly different approaches to countering CBRN weapons and missile threats. The
purpose of this paragraph is to assemble compendiously current information on
the status of weapons programs around the globe and analyse patterns regarding
the threats posed by these weapons.
Fig. 1. South-east European trans-border crime threats

487
China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States have well
established arsenals of nuclear weapons and are considered nuclear-weapon states
under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). India and Pakistan tested nu-
clear weapons in 1998; Israel is believed to have numerous nuclear weapons; and
North Korea is thought to have one or two. The US intelligence officials predict
more countries will acquire them in the next decade or so.About a dozen countries
have offensive biological weapons programs, and about 17 countries were report-
edly known or likely to have had chemical weapons when the Chemical Weapons
Convention went into effect. The number of countries and subnational groups
that will be able to produce at least small quantities of chemical weapons (CW)
and biological weapons (BW) weapons is likely to grow as new technologies are
developed and the international flow of goods, people, and technology continues
to increase. The number that will produce and stockpile CBRN as WMD may de-
crease if diplomatic efforts, arms control treaties, non-proliferation regimes, and
security strategies are effective. While the United States and Russia are reducing
their intercontinental missile inventories and have eliminated intermediate-range
missiles, China is modernizing and expanding its missile force, and North Korea,
Iran, Israel, India, and Pakistan are building short- and medium-range missiles and
are developing longer-range missiles. Dozens of countries have or are developing
ballistic missiles and more are likely to acquire them.
From the United States and Europe, across North Africa and the Middle East,
through South Asia to North-east Asia, nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons
and missiles will probably be a potential threat for the foreseeable future. More
countries and groups will have the ability to inflict mass casualties and mass de-
struction on their adversaries within their country, within their region, and even
those at a great distance.
While the threats of nuclear, biological, and chemical warfare associated with
the Cold War are greatly diminished, new threats have emerged and more may
develop in the coming decade as elements in North Korea, Russia, China, and
other countries continue to export weapons technology.
Chemical Weapons
Chemical weapons (CW) are usually described as agents, which can attack the
body in various ways2–5
. In many cases, chemical weapon ingredients are ‘dual
use’ in that they have legitimate non-military industrial applications. Many other
industrial chemicals are also highly toxic, are relatively easy to acquire and would
need minimal processing and preparation before use. The public vulnerability to
lethal chemical weapons – particularly nerve agents such as sarin – has been ap-
parent since the terrorist attacks in Japan in the mid-1990’s. The fact that sudden
death could come from colourless and (in some cases) odourless liquids and gases
released covertly would add to uncertainty and could prompt panic. The possi-

488
bility that a small-scale chemical weapon attack might trigger an immediate and
disproportionately terrified response on the part of the target population could be
seen by some terrorist groups as outweighing the difficulties, dangers and costs
of developing chemical weapons.
Biological Weapons
Biological warfare agents comprise micro-organisms and toxins. Micro-organ-
isms depend for their effect on survival and multiplication within a target body
and can be both contagious (e.g. smallpox and Ebola) and non-contagious (e.g.
anthrax). Biological weapons (BW) would be much easier to acquire or manufac-
ture than nuclear weapons, and could have a bigger impact on public and political
consciousness than CW (Fig. 2). For these reasons, many argue that bio-weapons
are becoming the terrorist ‘weapon of choice’. Although casualty estimates vary
widely, the political, psychological and economic impact of a bio-terror attack
would be profound, even in the event of a low-level or bungled attack.
Fig. 2. Level of impact (highest for nuclear events) and the probability (highest for explosive at-
tacks)
Radiological Weapons
The purpose of radiological weapons (RW) would be to spread radioactive mate-
rial over a wide area using either an explosive device, sometimes described as a
‘dirty bomb’, or some other means of dispersal. The use of these weapons could
have serious political and economic consequences; the immediate effects of a RW
attack would be limited. Analysts are divided as to the effect of even a large-scale
explosive RW attack, with some arguing that a victim close enough to the centre
of the explosion to receive a serious radiation dose would be more likely to be
killed promptly by the bomb blast than through radiation sickness. Yet while the
physical harm from a RW attack might be limited, the blast could provoke panic
and the prospect of radiological contamination could cause widespread anxiety.
The assembly and handling of a RW would pose significant technical challenges to

489
a terrorist group, and very severe health hazards. The technical challenges would
not, however, be insurmountable.
Nuclear Weapons
A nuclear attack could be achieved in one of four ways5,6
:
• by acquiring and using a complete nuclear weapon;
• by building a nuclear weapon;
• by constructing an improvised nuclear device (IND) with much larger quanti-
ties of lower grade, power reactor-quality uranium;
• by attacking a nuclear power station, using conventional means (such as a
large proximate explosion or the direct impact of a missile) to cause catastrophic
breakdown of the reactor and its subsequent destruction.
For terrorist individuals and groups driven by some religious, millennial or
apocalyptic visions, the massive and hugely symbolic impact of a nuclear strike
could be precisely their goal.
What Is the Difference Between a Chemical, Biological, or
Radiological Event?
Chemical, biological, and radiological material as well as industrial agents can be
dispersed in the air we breathe, the water we drink, or on surfaces we physically
contact. Dispersion methods may be as simple as placing a container in a heavily
used area, opening a container, using conventional (garden)/commercial spray
devices, or elaborate as detonating an improvised explosive device. Chemical
incidents are characterised by the rapid onset of medical symptoms (minutes to
hours) and easily observed signatures (coloured residue, dead foliage, pungent
odour, and dead insect and animal life). In the case of a biological incident, the onset
of symptoms requires days to weeks and there typically will be no characteristic
signatures. Because of the delayed onset of symptoms in a biological incident,
the area affected may be greater due to the migration of infected individuals. In
the case of a radiological incident, the onset of symptoms requires days to weeks
and there typically will be no characteristic signatures. Radiological materials
are not recognisable by the senses, and are colourless and odourless. Specialised
equipment is required to determine the size of the affected area and if the level of
radioactivity presents an immediate or long-term health hazard. Because of the
delayed onset of symptoms in a radiological incident, the affected area may be
greater due to the migration of contaminated individuals.
DISCUSSION
Adetailed threat assessment, addressing intentions and capabilities, would require
access to intelligence not available to the public domain, therefore beyond the reach

490
of the authors. Secondly, the increasingly diffuse nature of the CBRN problem
suggests that an approach concentrating on capabilities (what is knowable) rather
than of what is not (intentions) might be more appropriate, shifting the traditional
EU and SEEC policy for CBRN from the traditional military approach which was
dominant during the cold war.
The European Union and CBRN
The Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) established by 1991 Maastricht
Treaty, by acknowledging the danger of CBRN proliferation committed the EU to
an ever closer involvement in non-proliferation policy. In the wake of the terrorist
attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001 the risk that such weapons and
their delivery vehicles could fall into the hands of non-state-actors became a promi-
nent theme7,8
. The tone and the substance of the EU interest in non-proliferation
changed dramatically. Speeches and declarations became far more urgent, while
substantially the threat of terrorist use of WMD, which had always been widely
acknowledged within the EU and elsewhere, albeit largely in terms of a ‘nightmare
scenario’, now came to the fore. The changing mood within the EU is most clearly
revealed in a series of key documents. Shortly after 11 September 2001, the EU
General Affairs Council made an explicit connection between non-proliferation,
disarmament and arms control and the ‘global fight against terrorism’. In order to
reduce the ‘risk of non-state actors gaining access to weapons of mass destruction,
radioactive materials and means of delivery’, the Council launched a ‘targeted
initiative’ to address the implications of the terrorist threat on the non-prolifera-
tion, disarmament and arms control policy of the EU (Ref. 9). Recent documents
of the European Union suggest that a more modern approach has being adopted
in light of the need to combat current security concerns7–10
. The EU non-prolifera-
tion agenda includes measures aimed to address problems of the traditional kind,
notably by actions intended to strengthen regimes and export controls. However,
the WMD Strategy and the statements and declarations which precede it suggest
that the CBRN proliferation threat to the EU is regarded as complex and multi-
faceted, with different aspects of the threat requiring different levels and styles of
policy response. Based on an assessment of existing statements and documents,
it can be argued that from the EU perspective, elements of the CBRN threat are
as follows10
.
Global/general threat. At the most general level, the proliferation, illegitimate
possession and use of CBRN can be understood to represent a latent or actual
threat to international peace and security, with implications for the EU as a large
and active element of the international political and economic system.
Threat to norms and regimes of non-proliferation. There are now a significant
number of cases where states have carried out activities that are prohibited in arms

491
control treaties and agreements to which they are parties. Moreover, in a number of
cases these prohibited activities have gone undetected over an extended period. For
example, Soviet non-compliance with the Biological and Toxin Weapons Conven-
tion (BTWC) was not confirmed for many years in spite of the massive cold war
intelligence effort. In other cases – such as North Korean non-compliance with the
(nuclear) Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) – the exposure of the violation and its
subsequent discussion in the UN Security Council did not lead to any satisfactory
resolution of the compliance problem. CBRN proliferation provides compelling
evidence of the inadequacy of non-proliferation regimes and the need to reinforce
them. In this regard, a ‘worst-case analysis’ might run as follows: if regimes and
norms can not be reinforced, and if their value as a source of security becomes
progressively more questionable, then at some point the norms against prolifera-
tion might be reversed, with states arguing that the norm for security in a world
with CBRN is proliferation, rather than non-proliferation.
Neighbourhood/regional threat. CBRN proliferation, and associated concerns,
could give rise to a threat to peace and stability in certain regions bordering or
close to the EU, such as the Mediterranean littoral, inviting the EU interest and
involvement, certainly diplomatic and economic and perhaps also military.
Direct/physical threat. The EU member states could face a specific threat of
CBRN use (or blackmail) either from state or non-state actors, as a result of past
or present policies, current political loyalties and trading ties. The institutions of
the EU could be said to be threatened for broadly similar reasons.
Remote/physical threat. The EU representatives and personnel (civilian and mili-
tary) deployed on mission could face the direct threat of low-level CBRN use
against their facilities, installations and positions, or could be threatened indirectly
by damage and pollution through unintended proximity to CBRN use.
Indirect threat to the EU interests. The institutions and member states of the EU
have a range of political and economic interests around the world, which could be
disturbed or undermined by instability associated with CBRN proliferation.
Reputation threat. Having for several years had the goal of becoming a more coher-
ent and effective actor in matters of foreign, security and defence policy, having
described themselves as threatened by CBRN, and having committed themselves
publicly, in documents and declarations, to countering that threat, the institutions
and member states of the EU run the risk of having their reputation and credibility
as actors in the field of international security undermined.
Threat of accident. Unsafe storage and management of NBC facilities and material
could represent a general hazard to which the EU citizens might be exposed. Such
accidents could occur during attempted terrorist attacks or as a result of efforts to
steal or smuggle material.

492
Threats, hazards and risks
The traditional approach to threat assessment based on evaluating the capabili-
ties and intentions of known adversaries has serious limitations under the current
circumstances.
The near impossibility of knowing the antagonist reduces the opportunity to
try and understand and analyse intentions. The fact that ‘weapons’as that term has
come to be understood are no longer the only (and may not be the most important)
capability in the hands of adversaries further complicates applying the traditional
approach. The question of vulnerability has always been a component of ‘threat
perception’ in that it has been taken into account (sometimes implicitly) as an
aspect of enemy capability. To illustrate, an antagonist missile capability is only
a concern to the extent that there would be undefended cities that could be hit by
them. However, in present conditions this problem is of a different scale in that
modern societies might have what can be termed ‘structural vulnerability’because
recent events suggest that anyone with the intent and the basic commodities could
mount a CBRN attack somewhere in the EU. The decision about how to approach
reducing the risk of such attacks is important because the wrong strategy could
lead to the squandering of huge amounts of resources or to failure to prevent a
high-impact attack or both. At the same time, the fact that the elements needed to
mount an attack are dual-use in nature means that a strategy based on complete
denial of access to them is neither feasible nor desirable.
The dual-use character of proliferation-sensitive materials and technologies.
Dual-use technologies are the main concern since transfers of complete, opera-
tional CBRN weapons are highly unlikely to occur. However denial of access to
dual-use technology is only sought where the risk that it may be misapplied is
unacceptably high11,12
. Otherwise the result will be continuous tension because
many of the technologies themselves can not be banned and their control is inher-
ently difficult.
Chemical weapons and terrorism: Assessment. Although the military significance
of chemical weapons has decline dramatically through training and preparation, and
through the provision of protection and decontamination equipment and antidotes.
However this is not the case when considering the use in a non-military environ-
ment, against an unprotected civilian population. The lethality of CW (particularly
nerve agents such as zarin) is widely perceived to be so extreme, the availability
of CW (or TIH) so widespread, and the vulnerability of any single, unprotected
person so complete, that the working assumption is that a chemical attack is both
possible and certain to lead to near-instant death for its victims.
In addition, the fact that sudden death could come from colourless and (in
some cases) odourless liquids and gases released covertly adds to the fear of an
unknown and unknowable danger. In other words, whatever the battlefield utility

493
of CW, and whatever the qualities of the different agents, as far as public opinion
is concerned CW is a terrorist weapon par excellence – an observation that is not
likely to have been lost on terrorist groups. To produce CW in large-scale quantities
is challenging scientifically and technologically, and the handling and weaponising
of CW are generally understood to be very hazardous. For terrorist groups seeking
a weapon of extreme mass effect, against unprotected populations in towns and
cities, either biological or nuclear weapons (discussed below) might, therefore,
be of more interest than CW. But for a very committed and well-funded terrorist
group the difficulties associated with CW might not be thought insurmountable.
However, terrorist groups vary enormously in size, sophistication and capability,
and in the effect being sought. It could be that a small terrorist group – or even
one part of a much larger organisation – might have as its objective a Tokyo-scale
attack on public transport, for which CW (or TIH) could be the ideal means,
delivered simply. The knowledge that such an attack could trigger an immediate
and disproportionately terrified response on the part of the structurally vulnerable
target population could persuade some terrorist groups in the future to take the
CW path.
Biological weapons and terrorism: Assessment. The acquisition, production,
weaponisation and delivery of BW are all sufficiently difficult and dangerous to
maintain a high threshold to BW use, at least for the present. However, there can
be little doubt that the impact of terrorist use of BW could be profound. Bioterror
even at a low level would certainly make a deep and lasting impression on public
psychology13,14
. The international BW problem is driven both by ‘supply push’and
‘demand pull’. Commercial research and development are proceeding apace (in
pesticides and anti-virals, for example); there could well be too many unscrupulous
micro-biologists and research scientists willing to work for the highest bidder; and
an increasing amount of BW-related technology and equipment is dual-use. The
principal framework for the regulation of this ever increasing activity is, however,
the inadequate Biological Weapons Convention. On the demand side, there is some
evidence that terrorist groups intend to acquire BW. Even if the evidence has been
exaggerated the possibility of BW-equipped malign intent can not be discounted
altogether. The global BW-related research and development cycle could simply
be moving too fast for governments to keep pace. Governments and international
health bodies might work to develop countermeasures and health management
plans for terrorist attacks using, say, anthrax or Ebola. These mass vaccination and
disease control plans could take several more years to develop and establish. And
during that time, the global BW network/laboratory might well have come across
wholly new ideas and techniques which could be developed and deployed by ter-
rorist groups while their target governments are still putting the finishing touches
to the previous generation of countermeasures. This presents the greatest possible
challenge for governments, health bodies and security forces: to prepare for and

494
deal with both the current BW danger, which to the extent that it is known must
inevitably be understood and described as massive, as well as the prospective BW
danger, which is largely unknown. In other words, while understandably distracted
by the possibility of an imminent, large-scale anthrax attack, governments must
also draw upon the patchiest of information to construct countermeasures that
will be relevant and effective ten or more years in the future, against agents and
techniques, which at present reside largely in the imagination.All this suggests that
where BWare concerned, the traditional intelligence-driven, threat-based approach,
where a premium is placed on assessments of malign intent and of capabilities,
might not be all that useful15
.
Radiological weapons and terrorism: Assessment. The physical harm from a
RW attack would be limited, but the political and economic damage could be
severe16
. As a fairly novel national security scenario, it is difficult to assess how
any government might respond to the enormity of large-scale, explosive RW use,
other than to focus on immediate decontamination and public health, and on re-
building economic confidence. Planning ahead more could and should be done to
restrict access to radiological material, particularly the so-called ‘orphan sources’
– poorly controlled radioactive sources with industrial or therapeutic applica-
tions. Decontamination systems could also be improved, and the public tendency
to panic could be diminished through public education and reassurance as to the
actual hazards involved. Similarly, the economic consequences of RW use could
be moderated through careful business continuity planning. All these measures
and preparations might have a passive deterrent effect on the terrorist, who might
perceive the likely effects of a RW attack to be increasingly contained. Yet there
is little by way of active or punitive deterrence on offer, focusing specifically
on groups contemplating RW use. Simple cost-benefit analysis suggests that for
terrorist groups and individuals – particularly those for whom personal safety
when handling radioactive material is not a priority – the acquisition and use of a
radiological weapon will remain a tempting prospect.
Nuclear weapons and terrorism: Assessment. A nuclear attack using even a rela-
tively small and straightforward gun-type device would cause very extreme harm;
the exposure pathways for modern Western societies with their heavily developed
and complex cities appear almost limitless. Of course, risk is assessed in terms not
only of consequences but also of probability. Yet with consequences on a scale
described above, assessments of the probability of such an attack seem almost
superfluous; it might be improbable that a terrorist organisation could either design
and manufacture, or acquire a nuclear weapon, and then deliver it, but even the
slightest possibility that this could happen would entail massively disproportion-
ate consequences. In other words, the risk of terrorist use of nuclear weapons, as
traditionally calculated, could scarcely be higher. For Western governments the

495
risk is of such a magnitude that worst-case analysis seems not only unavoidable
but also appropriate. But it might even be that too much is made of the scientific
and engineering difficulties associated with acquiring and using a nuclear weapon.
Perhaps these constraints do not, after all, limit the probability of terrorist use of
a nuclear weapon, or at least not sufficiently? Many scientists and analysts have
expressed the concern that nuclear weapon design, materials and engineering have
all become commodities, more or less available to those determined enough to
acquire them. If this concern is well-grounded, the prospect of terrorist acquisition
of a nuclear weapon becomes less a matter of risk assessment than of threat in the
more traditional sense, with a nuclear weapon representing a capability waiting
to be used, the vulnerability to which would be very high. As well as capability,
threat assessment is a calculation of intention; it is known that al-Qaeda has long
been interested in acquiring or developing a functioning nuclear weapon, and
that Osama bin Laden has declared it a ‘religious duty’ for al-Qaeda to acquire
nuclear weapons5,17
. By one account, had the Taliban regime not been ejected from
Afghanistan, and had al-Qaeda managed to remain relatively unmolested in that
country, they would ‘eventually’have acquired nuclear weapons. On these grounds,
and in spite of any technical and engineering difficulties, nuclear terrorism might
best be described as a ‘realistic threat’16
. Other analysts describe this possibility
in even starker terms: ‘Terrorist acquisition of nuclear weapons poses the greatest
single threat to the United States’18
.
CONCLUSIONS
This paper has discussed the need to focus on the hazard or risk associated with
certain materials in conditions where it is known that non-state actors are think-
ing about how to carry out acts of mass-impact terrorism. This approach needs to
become an important supplement to the more traditional notion of analysing the
threat posed by militarily significant quantities of weapons held by the armed forces
of states. Nevertheless, this paper has put forward evidence that this traditional
approach can not yet be abandoned.
Approaches to non-proliferation threat assessment must combine a range
of different factors to make a modern and sophisticated analysis. The need for a
new approach to threat assessment also stems from the growing evidence of illicit
trafficking in proliferation-sensitive items (knowledge, materials and equipment).
Illicit trafficking networks are operated by criminals who are mainly motivated by
commercial considerations. Therefore, the networks could be exploited by either
state or non-state procurement efforts. It has further been argued that this effort to
make a new kind of assessment must distinguish between speculation concerning
terrorists intentions, disquiet over society own vulnerability to such attacks, and
hard analysis of terrorists capabilities in the CBRN field.

496
Excluding the factor of intentions from the assessment leads to the discus-
sion of worst-case scenarios whose distinctive feature is quite often that they are
so awful or complex as to be unmanageable, and thus in a perverse way discour-
age activity when it is most needed. However, little if anything is known about
the real intentions of groups such as al-Qaeda, and what is known suggests that
there is not much that could be done to modify their intentions. The ‘new terror-
ism’/CBRN nexus embodies very complex policy challenges, but perhaps also
represents something of an opportunity. Policy based on wild speculation about
terrorists intentions, even if responsive to public fears, is likely to be reactive and
incoherent and ultimately mistaken.
As part of the wide debate that has started over the intentions of sub-state ac-
tors, the assessment of the likely damage from attacks is one factor that has a direct
bearing on the approach to threat assessment? It might be possible to do more to
address society vulnerability – but not much, since Western societies are in effect
structurally vulnerable. However, without the capability, the intention alone can
not constitute a threat, and vulnerability can not be exploited in the way societies
and governments most fear. This changes the perception process massively from
the cold war mind-set, and invites a different sort of response. Perhaps the new
thinking that is needed could lie somewhere in the old idea of ‘deterrence by denial’.
The central element in such an approach should be to do what can be done to deny
unauthorised access to materials, and at the same time make clear that consequence
management and disaster and business recovery processes will make any attack
pointless. Increase resilience, in other words, and reduce brittleness.
The argument of this paper is therefore that the EU should not focus on the
notion of ‘CBRN threat’ if this means making an attempt to sum up all of the
capabilities and intentions that identified or possible adversaries are known to
have. Instead the EU should use a different approach, based upon the notion of
‘CBRN risk’. This approach invites, first, an objective assessment of hazard – the
potential for harm to the EU represented by CBRN, based on the characteristics
and availability of the weapons and the vulnerability of the EU to them. Rather
than make CBRN policy contingent upon the identification of potential assailants
– whose grievance might be unsuspected and who might be able to exploit the
availability of CBRN with relative ease and with little evidence of having done
so – the concern of policy-makers should then be to reduce the likelihood of such
harm, by seeking, for example, to limit the availability of CBRN weapons and
technology, or by improving response to and recovery from CBRN use.
This is not only a more accurate and realistic approach to the CBRN problem
as it has evolved in recent years; it is also more compatible with the EU and its
attempts to position itself as a responsible and effective actor in this field. After
all, although some of the CBRN hazards, risks and threats to the EU still retain
a broadly military character, many of them have nothing at all in common with

497
earlier military/defence thinking on this subject. It could be suggested, therefore,
that the best type of international organisation to deal with the evolving, very
broad-spectrum CBRN security problem is not a politico-military alliance but a
civil organisation such as the EU which has competence and confidence (albeit
inchoate) across the political spectrum, from diplomatic to economic to scientific
to – if and when necessary – the military.
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Received 2 June 2008
Revised 15 July 2008

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