Avalon's DM 101 - Analytics and Reporting
- 1. 1 Avalon Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved, 2016 Cover Page Avalon Consulting Group www.avalonconsulting.net Client Training Day Direct Marketing 101: Analytics September 7, 2017 ©2017 Avalon Consulting Group. All Rights Reserved.
- 2. 2 HOW DO WE DEFINE ANALYTICS AND REPORTING? Introduction Program and Campaign- Level Reporting Master File Analysis and Dashboard Ad Hoc Analytics Predictive Modeling Long-Range Forecasting
- 4. 4 Cash to budget reporting Fiscal year comparisons – overall, program, campaign Revenue by channel Monthly and Quarterly comparisons Cash flow trends Program analysis Segment analysis Test log Program and campaign-level reporting provides regular updates on progress towards budget and campaign performance. Avalon’s reporting system – Merlin – offers a wealth of reporting options updated weekly or bi-weekly.
- 5. 5 Merlin provides a range of reports that start with top level revenue and drill into campaign and segment performance.
- 6. 6 Master File Analysis & Dashboard
- 7. 7 The Avalon Inquire Master File Analysis and VitalStats Dashboard use donor level information to gauge the health and key trends for your program. Comparing key metrics will give you a deeper view into the health, future performance, and potential of your program. Donor level reporting Quarterly and Annual Updates File composition Retention Donor Value Income/gifts per member Upgrading
- 8. 8 Master File Analysis Example: File Growth, Composition and Retention
- 9. 9 Analysis of new joins by channel to show changes in acquisition.
- 10. 10 File composition analysis unveils dramatic changes and underlying issues. Under $25 joins had increased dramatically = low retention.
- 11. 11 First-year retention reporting to show changes over time. Industry Ranges FY: 20-40% 21.50% 20.50% 17.90% 28.60% 2011 2012 2013 2014
- 12. 12 In this example, multi-year retention and overall retention are the highest of the past 4 years. . 45.90% 46.80% 49.10% 57.30% 61.70% 62.10% 62.40% 64.70% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Overall retention Multi-year retention Industry Ranges MY: 50-70% Overall: 45-65%
- 14. 14 Ad hoc analytics tackle key questions and issues not available through standard reporting. Designed on a project by project basis Uses donor level information to provide views not available through traditional segmentation Often includes subsequent revenue and return on investment components
- 15. 15 Ad Hoc Analysis Example: Long-Term Value Background: The National Parks Conservation Association uses a premium in their acquisition program to drive new joins at the $15 level. The long-term value of premium donors was in question. Additionally, donor-level analysis showed a clear break at new joins above $25. Five year “donor value” jumps by 93% for new joins at the $25 first gift.
- 16. 16 First, NPCA tested a $25 ask against the $15 control to measure upfront results against ROI. Year 1 Return on Investment favored the $25 ask over the $15 ask. Net revenue was in favor of the $25 ask after one year, and retained members were 98% of those who had joined on the $15 ask (very similar!). ROI after 1 year
- 17. 17 Then, NPCA performed a six month test of their $15 premium control against no premium. As expected, the upfront performance indicated a decline in new joins. Long-term value analysis would be the true measure of results. Average gift still slightly favored the premium package. Net revenue was virtually tied with the cost of the premium included.
- 18. 18 Findings from Analysis: Evaluating the new joins from each group at 2 years out unveiled more interesting findings about the test. With a premium at $15. Despite far fewer joins, the No Premium group produced similar net revenue after one year, and individual donors had a better long-term value.
- 20. 20 Modeling is used to boost campaign performance by selecting the best donors based on a prediction of their value. Used for direct mail and telemarketing Helps both reduce the cost of a campaign and target best prospects Most effective for high cost campaigns or those with marginal results Based on previous giving, demographic data, or other available variables
- 21. 21 Example: Reinstatement Gains Chart The example below shows how the tiered deciles predicted by the model have performed. The model works! tier quantity gifts income resp rate avg gift $/M CPM Net/M Net NPD 1 7,290 198 $5,940 2.72% $30.00 $815 $294 $521 $3,797 $19.18 2 7,365 207 $5,367 2.81% $25.93 $729 $294 $435 $3,202 $15.47 3 7,331 144 $3,707 1.96% $25.74 $506 $294 $212 $1,552 $10.78 4 7,321 88 $2,316 1.20% $26.32 $316 $294 $22 $164 $1.86 5 7,330 71 $1,768 0.97% $24.90 $241 $294 -$53 -$387 -$5.45 6 7,380 60 $2,088 0.81% $34.80 $283 $294 -$11 -$82 -$1.36 7 7,284 68 $1,598 0.93% $23.50 $219 $294 -$75 -$543 -$7.99 Total 51,301 836 $22,784 1.6% $27.25 $444 $294 $150 $7,702 $9.21
- 23. 23 Long-range forecasting predicts the trajectory of a program and aids in acquisition investment planning. Long-range forecasting uses many key metrics to estimate future performance. Forecasting is a tool, not a budget Helpful in educating leadership about the impact of current decisions Ability to provide a range of scenarios based on the organization’s goals Updated yearly to track progress against projection
- 24. 24 Example Forecast: Status Quo FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 continuing reactivating 2nd year new Gross Revenue Net Revenue Centennial
- 25. 25 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 continuing reactivating 2nd year new Gross Revenue Net Revenue Centennial BumpCentennial BumpCentennial Bump Media Bump Example Forecast: Aggressive Investment
- 26. 26 Questions?
- 27. 27 Thank you! TJ Hillinger Vice President & Director of Analytical Services Avalon Consulting Group 805 15th Street NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20005 202-627-6512 tjh@avalonconsulting.net Connect with Avalon Today!