Backup on the Moon
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The document outlines various strategies to mitigate global catastrophic risks, including artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and environmental threats. It emphasizes the importance of international cooperation, risk monitoring, and the preservation of human knowledge through archiving efforts, especially on the Moon. Additionally, it explores the potential for space colonization and the creation of resilient technologies as means to ensure humanity's survival and continuity.
Backup on the Moon
- 1. Alexey Turchin Let us Make a Back Up on the Moon Foundation Science for Life Extension alexeiturchin@gmail.com
- 2. Many global risks exist β’ AI risks β’ Biotech risks β’ Nanotech risks β’ Nuclear war β’ Asteroids β’ Super- volcanos http://immortality-roadmap.com/x-risks%20map15.pdf
- 3. Plan A is to prevent risks Plan B is to survive Plan C is to leave traces High-speed Tech Development needed to quickly pass risk window β’ Investment in super-technologies β’ Support exponential growth to overcome linear risks Π1.1 International Cooperation Plan B3 Bunkers and asylums (see map) Plan Π‘ Preserve information about humanity Preparation β’ Fundraising β’ Textbook to rebuild civilization β’ Hoards with seeds etc β’ Survivalistβs communities Building β’ Underground bunkers, space colonies β’ Seasteading β’ Convert submarines into refuges Natural refuges β’ Remote villages β’ Remote islands β’ Mines Time capsules with information β’ Underground hoards β’ Eternal disks Preservation of earthly life β’ Conditions for the re-emergence of intelligent life β’ Directed panspermia β’ Preservation of biodiversity and mammals Prevent x-risk research because it only increases risk β’ Do not advertise x-riks idea β’ Donβt try to control risks β’ We canβt measure the probability β’ Do nothing All Possible Ways to Prevent Human Extinction Risks Singleton β’ βA world order in which there is a single de- cision- making agency at the highest levelβ (Bos- trom) β’ Super AI which pre- vents all possible risks and provides immortality and happiness to human- ity Controlled regression β’ Use a small catastrophe to prevent large one (Willard Wells) β’ Luddism (Kaczynski): relinquishment of dangerous science β’ Creation of ecological civilization without technology β’ Limitation of personal and collective in- telligence to prevent dangerous science β’ Antiglobalism and diversification into multipolar world (may raise probabilities of wars) Plans A1-A3 represent the best possible ways to prevent global catastrophe. These plans could be realized simultaneously until the later stages. Plans B, Π‘ and D are subsequently worse and give only a small chance of survival. (c) Alexey Turchin, 2014 - 2017 Messages to ET civilizations β’ Interstellar messages with DNA β’ Hoards on the Moon β’ Frozen brains β’ Spacecrafts Reboot of civilization Several reboots may occur Interstellar distributed humanity β’ Many unconnected human civilizations β’ New types of space risks (space wars, planets and stellar explosions, AI and nanoreplicators, ET civilizations) Attracting good outcome by positive thinking β’ Start partying now β’ Preventing negative thoughts about the end of the world and about violence β’ Maximum positive attitude βto attractβ pos- itive outcome Improving humans Intelligence and norality β’ Rationality+ Education (CFAR) β’ Effective altruists β’ Engineered enlightenment: LSD? β’ Prevent worst forms of capitalism: β’ Preventing unilateralist course β’ Ethical education Media β’ Prevent fake news β’ High quality scientific journalism Education β’ Courses of risk analysis for professionals β’ Education in schools on x-risks β’ Raising the sanity waterline Plan B1 Improving Resilience Bad plans Depopulation Could provide resource preservation and make control simpler β’ Natural causes: pandemics, war, hunger (Malthus) β’ Extreme birth control β’ Deliberate small catastrophe (bio-weap- ons) Computerised totalitarian control β’ Mind-shield β control of dangerous ideation by the means of brain implants Choosing the way of extinction β’ Quick die off is better UFAI is better pandemc β’ Memory about humanity β’ Past simulations β’ Some human values Interstellar travel β’ βOrionβ style, nuclear powered βgeneration shipsβ β’ Starships, with immortal people on board β’ Von Neumann self-replicating probes Temporary asylums in space β’ Space stations as temporary asylums (ISS) β’ Cheap and safe launch systems Colonisation of the Solar system β’ Self-sustaining colonies on Mars and large asteroids β’ Terraforming of planets and asteroids using self-replicating robots β’ Millions of colonies inside asteroids in the Oort cloud Plan B2 Space Colonization Robot-replicators in space β’ Mechanical life β’ Nanbots as information carriers β’ Safe narrow AI for nanobots Resurrection by another civilization β’ Alienβs archeology β’ Similar convergent evolution of alien civilizations Risk control Technology bans β’ International ban β’ Freezing dangerous projects β’ Piles of bureaucracy β’ Regulation Control β’ Several controlled re- serch centers β’ Control knowledge of mass destruction β’ White noise β’ Control dangerous agents Worldwide risk prevention authority X-risk police β’ Center for quick response β’ Task forse β’ Worldwide video-sur- veillance β’ Robots for emergency liquidation β’ Narrow AI expert sys- tem on x-risks Research Risks β’ Risk modelling and ful list β’ General theory of safety β’ Cognitive biases β’ Future model Science β’ Cooperative community β’ Prestige β’ Scientific attributes Social support Politics β’ Street actions β’ Lobbyism β’ Policy recommendations β’ Parties Society β’ Popularization β’ Funding β’ Education International cooperation Super-UN β’ International law about x-risks β’ International agencies dedicated to certain risks β’ New rolu of UN Surveillance β’ International control systems (like IAEA) β’ Internet scanning, monitoring from space Values transformation β’ X-risks reduction value β’ Life extension and global security β’ Reduction of radical religious (ISIS) or ationalistic values β’ Popularity of transhumanism β’ Art β’ Memorial and awareness days: Pentrov day Manipulation of the extinction probability using Doomsday argument β’ Decision to create more ob- servers in case unfavora- ble event X starts to happen, thereby lowering its probabil- ity (method UN++ by Bos- trom) Control of the simulation (if we are in it) β’ Live an interesting life so our simulation isnβt switched off β’ Donβt let them know that we know we live in simulation β’ Hack the simulation and control it β’ Negotiation with the simulators or pray for help Readiness β’ Crew training β’ Crews in bunkers β’ Crew rotation Improving sustainability of civilization β’ Intrinsically safe critical systems β’ Growing diversity of human beings and habitats β’ Universal methods of catastrophe prevention (resistant structures, strong medicine) β’ Building reserves (food stocks, seeds, minerals, energy, machinery, knowledge) β’ Widely distributed civil defence: β’Independent food production (Dekenberger) War prevention β’ International court β’ Large project, which could unite human- ity, β’ Dialog with rogue countries β’ Hotlines between nuclear states β’ Antiwar and antinuclear movement β’ International law β’ Cooperative decision theory in interna- tional politics Dramatic social changes β’ Demise of capitalism, global village, dis- solving of national states. β’ Scinetifically based policy β’ World democracy β’ High level of horizontal connectivity Miniaturization for survival and invincibility β’ Adaptive bunkers based on nanotech β’ Colonization of Earthβs crust by miniaturized nano-tech bodies β’ Moving into simulation worlds inside small self-powered com- puter systems PlanA:Preventcatastrophe Space colonies near Earth β’ Moon and Mars (Elon Musk) with 100-1000 peo- ple β’ 1 000 000 self-sustained colony on Mars Π1.2 Decentralized monitoring ofrisks Decentralized risk monitoring β’ Transparent society - vigilantes - βAnonymousβ hacker groups β’ Decentralized control: - local police; local health authorities - mutual control in professional space - whistle-blowers β’ Net-based safety solutions: - ring of x-risk prevention organizations β’ Economic stimulus: - carbon emissions trade - prizes for any risk identified β’ Monitoring of smoke, not fire Useful ideas to limit the scale of a catastrophe β’ Quarantine β’ Rapid production of vaccines β’ Stockpiles β’ Increase preparation β’ Quick detection of new threats β’ Worldwide x-risk prevention exercises β’ The ability to quickly adapt to new risks and envision them in advance Morechancesofsuccess A1βPeacefulintegration (seemapofcooperation) PlanB SurvivethecatastrophePlanA2βWorldtakeover andstrongglobalcontrol PlanΠ3.1 CreateAI soon (badplan?) Technology speedup β’ Differential technological development: β’ Laws and economic stimulus Raise human body resilience by replacing biological parts β’ Nanotech-based immortal body β’ Diversification of humanity into several successor species capa- ble of living in space β’ Mind uploading β’ Integration with AI PlanΠ2.2 World takeover (badplan?) Small catastrophe for unification β’ A smaller catastrophe could help unite humanity β’ Paradigmatic change event Unification as result of world war Use of supertechnology for unification Nanotech Doomsday blackmail PlanA3βNonglobalsolutions Change informational transparency level β’White noise β’Secrecy β’Blockchain β’Tracking Change the speed of the catastrophe dissemination β’Slow down communication channels and transportation β’Balance of power (Open AI) PlanΠ3.2 Slowingthe catastrophe PlanΠ3.3 Bottom-up approach: Low-tech risks β’Find special approach to each risk (more in full map) β’Internal professional self-regulating Reactive approach: wait for evidence β’ Search evidences of new risks appearing β’ Evidences should pass certain threshold Active shields β’ Geoengineering β’ Anti-asteroid shield β’ Nanoshield β’ Bioshield β world- wide immune system β’ Worldwide AI-con- trol system Peaceful unification of the planet Isolation β’ Isolation of risk sources at a great distance from Earth; β’ Do scientific experiments in the ways that are close to natural events Steps and timeline Step 1 Planning Step 3 Low-tech level defence 2025β2050 Step 4 High tech defence 2050β2100 Step 2 Preparation Study and Promotion β’ Study of Friendly AI theory β’ Promotion of Friendly AI β’ Fundraising (MIRI) β’ Slowing other AI projects Solid Friendly AI theory β’ Theory of human values and decision theory β’ Full list of possible ways to create FAI Superintelligent AI β’ βhard takeoffβ β’ dominant force on Earth β’ AI eliminates suffering, involuntary death, and existential risks β’ AI Nanny AI practical studies β’ Narrow AI β’ Human emulations β’ Value loading β’ FAI theory promotion to all AI developers PlanΠ2.1 Friendly AI creation World wide survilience sys- tem and draconian laws (medium resolution version, see more details here) Technological precognition β’ Prediction of the future based on advanced quan- tum technology β’ Search for potential ter- rorists using new scanning technologies Saved by non-human intelligence β’ Extraterrestrials will save us β’ Ask ET for help if a catastrophe is inevitable β’ Simulation owners will save us β’ Prey Quantum immortality β’ At least one observer will survive β’ Other human civilizations must exist in the infinite Uni- verse Strange strategy to escape Fermi paradox Random strategy may help us to escape some dangers that killed all previous civili- zations in space Plan D Improbable Ideas http://immortality-roadmap.com/globriskeng.pdf
- 4. The main idea of Plan C is to leave archeological data for the future civilisation so it could βresurrectβ us Questions: 1. When the new civilisation appear? 2. Where to store data? 3. Did anybody already send data? 4. How to attract attention to the storage? 5. What kind of data to send: size, content The answers are interconnected.
- 5. When? - 1 000 - 100 000 year timeframe: Civilizational collapse with human survival. - 1 million timeframe: too long for humans, too short for chimps evolutions in new intelligent specie (survival gap). - 10 million years. Apes evolve in the new intelligent species. - 100 million years. Small rodents or birds evolve intelligence. - 500 million years: Completely new multicellular life. Types of the possible new civilizations depending on the size of the catastrophe
- 6. Future evolution of the Sun and Earth Different estimations of the Earth habitability: - From 100 mln - 3 billion years - Median estimation: 1 billion years Earthβs CO2 is declining; Sunβs luminosity is growing: Oceans will boil eventually. .
- 7. 0 25 50 75 100 Humans, 100KY No one, 1 MY Apes, 10MY Birds, 100MY New life, 500MY Next civilisation's probability depending on time
- 8. Most probable new civilisation timing is around 100 million years from now Because: - Human will be humans and it is not a new civilization - Great Apes are fragile; they will likely extinct together with humans - Small animals (like mice) may evolve into large and clever ones during 100 million years time - In the 1 billion timeframe it is probable that Earth will
- 9. Information exchange and βacausalβ trade between past and future civilizations Acausal deal: both sides cooperate without ability to sign agreement Our obligations: a) send data about how our civilization demise thus helping to prevent their extinction b) send interesting scientiο¬c data Next civilisation obligations: recreate human being based on our DNA and human culture based on our digital data.
- 10. There is a problem of sending messages to 100 millions years in the future: geologically active Earth
- 11. Existing methods and attempts to preserve information about humanity on Earth β’ Svalbard Global Seed Vault -1000 years β’ Long Now - HD Rozetta disks - 10 000 years β’ Memory of Mankind (MoM) is an effort to encode some information on clay plates and bury them in a salt mine - 1 mln years
- 12. New information carriers Metal disks with engraving using ion beam: βHD-Rosettaβ manufacturer Norsam suggests also HD-ROM technology with the following characteristics of the disk if it is used as digital only carrier: β50 nm pit size β’165 GB per 120 mm disc M-disks: These are Blu-ray disks with a glass coating which is claimed to be able to survive 1000 years 5D storage in silico glassβ: Glass with 3D structure, created with a laser: In 2016 a breakthrough was claimed in long-term information preservation by 3 dimensional laser engraving inside silica glass, with 2 additional βdimensionsβ created by polarization. It was claimed that 360 TB of data could be recorded into a piece of quartz the size of a coin. Tungsten in silicon nitride lithography. De Vries created disks using very hard and durable materials (de Vries, Schellenberg, Abelmann, Manz, & Elwenspoek, 2013). Thermal tests showed that the disks could survive 1 mln years at room temperature and even may be as much as 1030 years DNA. DNA half-life in normal conditions is around 500 years, after which half of the nucleotide bases will break, but the time quickly grow with lower temperatures, based on Arrhenius law http://www.alcor.org/Library/html/HowColdIsColdEnough.html On the temperature of the liquid nitrogen (-196C) the chemical processes will slow 700 trillions times. Preserving viable human DNA requires very high quality of preservation.
- 13. Geologically stable: almost no volcanism, no atmosphere Extremely cold craters on poles: coldest places in the Solar system Nearest place to Earth which will be surely visited first. Surface is visible from Earth by naked eye There are many human artefacts already on the Moon There are many planned missions, where opportunistic payload is possible Moon is the most natural solution for 100 million years storage
- 14. Lunar Mission One Lunar Mission One is a project to send a probe into the Shackleton crater on the Moon, bore a hole 20-100 meters deep, and put public and private data inside the hole, as well as pieces of DNA and hair. The founders want to fund the project by people who will pay to preserve their private data. It has planned date of launch in 2024, but now is experiencing funding difficulties: they lost 1 mln USΠ which they crowdfunded. https://lunarmissionone.com/
- 15. Lunar Mission OneCommercialisation of immortality on the Moon: βA plan to establish a lunar archive containing human DNA and a digital record of life on Earth is being unveiled this week. Called Lunar Mission One, the archive is the brainchild of British space consultant David Iron, who has worked on Skynet, the UK spy satellite network, and Galileo, the European Unionβs global positioning system. His idea is to charge people Β£50 or so to place a sample of their DNA, in the form of a strand of hair, in an archive to be buried on the moon, alongside a digital history of as much of their lives as they want to record, in the form of text, pictures, music and video. Iron presented the plan at a space ο¬ight conference at the Royal Society in London on 19 November. The catch? He needs at least 10 million earthlings to do this if heβs to generate the Β£500 million the moon shot will need.β https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26581-chance-to-bury-your-dna-on-the-moon-in-a-time- capsule/
- 16. Conditions on the Moon: temperature β’ The temperature of the lunar surface jumps when solar radiation hits it, which would damage most equipment β’ But some places of the Lunar poles never see sunlight β’ The LCROSS spacecraft measured temperatures of -238ΒΊC in craters at the southern Moon pole and -247ΒΊC in a crater at the northern pole. β’ These are the coldest temperatures in the Solar system, even on Pluto it is higher, as Pluto does not have eternally shadowed poles because its rotation axis is tilted. β’ Plutoβs temperatures are estimated to be between 33K and 55K, while the lowest measured temperature on Moon is 26K
- 17. Conditions on the Moon: temperature under surface β’ The temperature on the Moonβs equator is regularly changing by hundreds of degrees, which will accelerate decomposition of any spacecraft on the surface. β’ But 0.5m below the ground the temperature is almost constant. β’ The temperature under the surface of the Moon is higher on its equator; there it is around -20ΒΊC (250K) less than 1 meter deep based on modeling (Vasavada, Paige, & Wood, 1999) and direct measuring by Appolo β’ At higher latitudes it is much lower, according to the model, near 100K at the poles. And in craters near the poles, it is even lower. (To stable preservation of biological objects we need 130K)
- 18. Conditions on the Moon: micrometeorites The Moon does not have an atmosphere, so anything on its surface will suffer from radiation and micrometeorite damage. This means that any long-term storage should be put under the surface. It is estimated that micrometeorite erosion is around 1 mm of lunar rock per million years. Existing landing sites from the Apollo program will disappear in 10-100 mln years.
- 19. Conditions on the Moon: impactors The Moon is located in the inner Solar system which has less concentration of impactors The Moonβs poles may have lesser impact probability from non-comet sources. The Lunar surface is mostly old (billion of years), so that means small probability of damage by large impactors.
- 20. Conditions on the Moon: Lunar Dust The Moon is covered with very abrasive lunar dust, which damaged a lot of storage during Apollo missions, and which is moving because of electrostatic forces. Such dust movement could be damaging to the surface of artificial objects in the long-term, and result in something similar to wind erosion.
- 21. Conditions on the Moon: volcanism The Moon is a geologically quiescent body, so little damage is expected from internal sources (but some small volcanic activity may happened 50 millions years ago (Braden et al., 2014)).
- 22. Shackleton and Hermite craters as most logical places to put the message on the Moon The south lunar pole crater Shackleton exists with little damage for around 3 bln years and South pole axis is inside it (Zuber et al., 2012). It is constantly shadowed by surrounding mountains. This crater will naturally attract attention of any future civilisation, as it is a special place on the Moon, because it is extremely cold and there are chances that there is water ice. Inside the crater the message should be put either near the central peak, or near some water deposits, or near the point where the south pole axis is located (NASA, 2017). The temperature in this crater is 88-90 K, but there are even colder craters on the Moon. with temperature 35 K in some craters near the South pole and even 26 K near the North pole in the Hermite crater (Amos, 2009). https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=p1OIDCXd2v8
- 23. Deep drilling on the Moon β’ The needed weight of machinery to dig in the extremely harsh environment of the cold Moon poles will grow quickly with needed depth of the hole. β’ The Lunar Mission One suggested to drill 20-100 meters under the surface but it requires new technologies of strengthening bore walls. β’ The Soviet automated Luna-24 station also drilled a very thin probe 2 meters into the regolith. β’ But as poles have water deposits, a probe could melt through ice. β’ Also disks are typically 10 cm diameter, so smaller disks are needed for narrow wells.
- 24. Problems of the lunar storage β’ Problem of the small impactors. β’ Problem of penetrating radiation. Some cosmic rays create muons which are able to penetrate up to 3 km deep in the ground. It means that the coding regions should be larger which limits the size of the message or increasing the mass of the carrier. β’ Problem of visibility. It will be impossible to ο¬nd deep stored object, especially a small capsule 100 meters below the surface.
- 25. Ways to the solution: β’ Opportunistic payload to the lunar poles missions β’ Many small but resilient messages, like tungsten coin sized disks in many spacecrafts β’ Use of lava tubes on Moon β’ Beacons which will direct to the location of the message β’ Habitable Moon colony will produce enough or βarcheological materialβ and could appear around 15 years from now β’ Find money for Lunar Mission One, may be by selling tickets to the future β’ Small lander on equator region with shallow well of 2 meters deep and foil-based beacon (could be 10 times cheaper than deep polar lander)
- 26. Opportunistic payloads: Adding M-disks, Rosetta disks and DNA samples to already planned Moon landers β’ M-Disc weights 20 grams and store 100GB β’ We could put it inside any lander. β’ Maybe inside a landing gear or inside the boring equipment
- 27. Opportunistic payloads: planned Lunar landers Starting from 2018 there are plans for around two landers in different places on the Moon a year by different players, including Japan, India, China, US private companies, and Google X prize competitors. Manned flights are realistic around 2030. β’ Blue Origin has plans for a polar lander in the Shackleton crater for 2020 capable of delivering 4 tons of cargo (could be used to send a lot of data in the test flight) β’ Musk plans to use BFR for a Moon base β’ The Chinese Chengeβ4 may land near the South lunar pole in 2018. β’ Indian Chandrayaan-2 - 2018 β’ Google prize - several small private companies in 2018-19 β’ Japan SlIM - 2021 β’ Russian Luna-25 - 2019-2021 As the preparation of the message would require years, realistic date of the launch of the message even as an opportunistic payload is 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon#Proposed_Missions
- 28. Habitable Moon colony as a building yard for a very long-term information storage β’ Currently total human garbage on Moon is 187 tons. β’ Moon colony will have a lot of data and biological samples. β’ They will surely invest in deep drilling and caves exploration. β’ Subsurface bunkers will remain for a very long time. β’ Large remains on surface will attract attention. β’ Realistically it could appear after 2030, but Mission One is planed around 2025, so it is only 5 years delay. β’ A colony could also be a refuge for humans, which could return to Earth after a catastrophe - or who's bodies will be naturally cryopreserved on the Moon.
- 29. Creating a beacon by drawing with small craters β’ We could draw a message or an arrow to its location using craters from small impacts. β’ The Centaur impactor weighed 2 tons and created a 20 meter diameter crater, which is not visible from Earth β’ 300 meters craters is minimum which could be seen from Earth even in telescope because of diffraction limits.
- 30. Graving the message on the Moonβs surface using craters as dots β’ If we canβt escape cratering damage, we could use it. β’ Short and urgent part of the message could be engraved (in pictograms) using small craters, like βnever modify virusesβ β’ Surface grazing robotic tractor also could do the job. Such tractors were suggested for mining of Helium-3.
- 31. Hatch-work drawing of surface using solar- powered ditching plough 1 Mb of data could be put on a square km using dots as bits
- 32. Lava tubes β’ Many lava tubes are known on the Moon (200 skylights) β’ High protection, but not easy to ο¬nd a message. β’ Easy access to the protected place via holes, no need to bore β’ Scientiο¬c interest - could send a rover there https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Lunar_lava_tube
- 33. Other possible solutions for information preservation Earth, Mars, Satellites, Oort cloud, Psyche 16, interstellar probes
- 34. Cratons on Earth β’ Cratons are old stable geological formations, some are billions years old, and they could exist billion more years β’ The fact that we have a lot of the paleontological data is an evidence that sending data for hundreds millions years is possible
- 35. Nuclear waste storage β’ Finland builds nuclear waste storage inside a crystal shield 420 below ground. β’ Message could be an opportunistic payload and even have βnegativeβ price for PR (Onkalo project). β’ Cavities and rare radioactive materials will be a beacon β’ Started in 2014.
- 36. Mars and other celestial bodies β’ Mars will be affected by collision with Fobos in 30-50 mln years, so it is not suitable. β’ 16 Psyche, which is the biggest metal asteroid in the main belt, and the 10th largest overall asteroid, which will surely attract attention of future scientists and asteroid miners. May survive Sunβs red giant phase and provide preservation of the information for 10 billion years.
- 37. Satellites The benefits are that many satellites already exist and some information carriers could be added to new satellites. Satellites are easily observable even with naked eye, and their artificial origin would be rather obvious based on their chemical composition. One planned data storage satellite is Asgardia (Harris, n.d.). In 1976, the satellite LAGEOS was sent on an orbit 6000 km above Earth with a plaque with a message to the future designed by Carl Sagan. It is estimated that it will fall into Earth in 8.4 mln years (Popular Science, 1976). In 2012, an artist created a silicon disk with 100 images and put it on geostationary satellite Echostar 16, which will be later moved to a graveyard orbit, where it is expected to remain for billions years (Campbell-Dollaghan, 2012).
- 38. Comparison of different methods, their price, information content and durability 6.5. Comparison of different methods, their price, information content and durability In the table 1, we produce combined estimations of durability of different methods of information preservation, as well as their price and timing of practical realization. Table 1. Opportuni stic payload on scientific spacecraft on Moon, or in satellites 1 ton special probe in polar crater on Moon with 2 m deep drilling βBeacon drawingβ on the visible side of Moon plus dark crater storage Large scale crater drawings on the visible side of Moon, and deep under- ground storage in the pole region (manned mission) Tunnel system inside Earth craton (nuclear waste storage) Moon colony, with around 100 or more colonists or robots, which primary task is to create βeternalβ storage Metal asteroid mining Self- replicating robots Expected time of the message preserva- tion 1-10 mln years 100 mln - 1 bln years 100 mln - 1 bln years 100 mln - 1 bln years 100 mln - 1 bln years 1-3 bln years 1-10 bln years 1-10 bln years Price based on current technology (USD) 100K-1 mln 1 bln 10 bln 10-100 bln Negative as good PR Above 1 trillion Negative as good PR Earliest date of realization 2018 2020s 2030 2040 2020s 2040 2050 2050 Ease of finding the message Low Low High Very high Medium Very high Medium High Overall estimation of probability to prevent human extinction - - ? ? ? + + + Cost effectivenes s High High - High - ? ?
- 39. Content of the message: language β’ At first, the message should teach the next civilization human language, probably using pictures and movies. β’ The same problem I explored about SETI-attack (A. Turchin, 2016). Self- evident computer programs are possible. β’ Rosetta disks could help teach language, as their content was designed specially to do so. β’ We assume here that a complete textbook is possible, but creation of such textbook may be an expensive part of the whole project. β’ Existing sources like movies and ABC-books could be recorded. β’ The same problems are known for METI, but here we know that next civilization will be similar to ours: same DNA, same planets.
- 40. The message content: Introduction message The message introduction should try to persuade the receivers that: 1) It is safe for them to return to life Homo Sapiens 2) Humans very much want to be resurrected 3) Human resurrection will be beneο¬cial to the next civilization 4) It will be fair from the cooperative decision theory point of view.
- 41. Information content of the message 1) Human DNA. Human DNA of different people should be preserved in digital form. Hundreds of people would guard against inbreeding. But as some molecular mechanisms could change in next hundred million years, like ribosomes, and even genetic code, it will not be enough, and other information about human cells should be preserved. DNA surely should be attempted to preserved as a small dry pieces of tissue, like dry blood, may be chemically fixed. 2) Biological samples, like frozen human eggs or embryos, seeds, or even cryopreserved cryopatients (who may pay for such long-term storage and cover part of the price of the project.) Different methods of chemical fixation could be used. There is little hope that these biological samples will remain viable even at -245 C in the coldest places, because of many types of damage to very small features, but they could be analyzed and help in reconstruction of humans. 3) Cultural and scientific information. The most valuable books about humanity, snapshot of the internet, archive of the scientific data, movies.
- 42. Cryonics on the Moon β’ Cryonics is preservation of the dead for the future return to life in cryostasis. β’ Moon could provide long-term preservation conditions for bodies or brains because of constant cold regions. β’ Russian Kryorus planned to send bodies to a satellite. β’ Cryopatients could pay for the data storage β’ But delivery of frozen brains to Moon will be very expensive, several millions USD of current prices. β’ To slow the decay of a human body enough to preserve it for next civilization, we need to slowdown chemical processes, so 1 minute will be equal to 100 millions years, that is 52,594,920,000,000 times, or around 53 trillions times. According to Arrhenius law, liquid nitrogen produces slowdown of 700 trillions times compared to the speed of chemical processes at +37 C. β’ Thus we need constant storage at -196C, that is 77K. h t t p : / / w w w . a l c o r . o r g / L i b r a r y / h t m l / HowColdIsColdEnough.html
- 43. Price of the cargo delivery to Moon β’ Astrobotic company suggested a price to Moon delivery of around 1.2 million GBP per kg (Astrobotic, 2017), so it would be 20 000 USD for one disk, but 3 mln for one brain. β’ Moon Express plans to charge 1.5 mln GBP per kg for Moon delivery and first test flight is planned at the end of 2017 (Smith, 2016). β’ Only one mission actually landed on Moon in the last 40 years (as of August 2017), that is Changβ3. It is not easy to estimate its price, as it is a Chinese government project. The lander mass was 1200 kg. β’ Blue Origin βBlue Moonβ Lander, from 2020, could provide cheaper price, but its still will cost no less than several hundreds millions dollars for 4 tons of cargo, which is 100K USD for kg. β’ Maskβs BFR may be even cheaper, but the project seems less realistic https://www.geekwire.com/2017/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-makes-pitch-congress-delivering-cargo-moon/
- 44. The size of the message Maximizing the probability of the resurrection of humanity: a very large amount of information is needed. Much larger than was previously sent on satellites or in time capsules. The larger the information content of the message is, the bigger are the chances that the humanity will be adequately resurrected. 1 Gb level: The minimum size of message for resurrection of humans and human civilization should be human DNA code plus several thousand books about human culture, science and history. In digital form, a full human genome has 3 billion base pairs, which is equal to 700 Mb of information, and typical book size is around 1 Mb 100 Gb level: The English Wikipedia is around 10 GB. One could preserve just the differences between hundreds of human genomes because humans are 99% similar to each other. So sending something like 100 Gb will provide a large part of human culture, and sufficient human genetic diversity. 300 TB level: A better size of the message should be DNA of hundreds people, that is on the order of a terabyte, plus large part of internet archive, that is hundreds terabytes. The size of the library of Congress is estimated to be 200 TB 100 PB level: This could encompass all significant data from humanity (excluding social networks). Internet archive now hosts 50 PB of data (Internet Atchive, 2017). 10 Exabyte: 1 Exabyte is total data in the internet as of 2017, and 10 Exabytes would also enable all personal archives plus DNA samples of all humans currently alive,
- 45. Updating the message To help future civilisation to learn why we demise, the message should be always up to date. Thus lunar module has to record news stream from Earth and add it to eternal memory discs.
- 46. Cost-effectiveness of data preservation compared with other plans of global catastrophic risks prevention β’ Creating Lunar Ark is very expensive, and the probability that it will help to reconstruct the human civilisation is small. β’ Lunar Mission One costs at least 1 billion USD. (Smaller equatorial test lander could be 10 times cheaper?) β’ For the same money a nuclear submarine could be converted into an effective refuge. β’ Habituated Ark will cost trillions dollars in current costs. β’ Thus message into future seems reasonable only if cheap solutions will be found. β’ Cheap solutions: opportunistic payloads to many missions, preservation in nuclear waste storages in Earth.
- 47. Cost-effectiveness takeaways: β’ Total survivability of the human civilisation could be increased on around 1 percent, if high-quality message to the future will be created. β’ Minimum price of the message could be small, like several millions USD, but it will give smaller survivability.
- 48. Realisation steps β’ First step: creating the correct message in size of around 100GB-1TB. Solve language problems and collect all needed data. β’ Record it many small cheap durable carriers like silico glass or Rosetta HD. Rosetta disks could be self-evident as artiο¬cial messages and could be read by microscope. β’ Negotiating with different space projects as well as deep drilling projects to include the message, in the form of at least 1 disc with weight of 20 g. β’ In 10 years, better information carriers will appear and cheaper options for space access.
- 49. Messaging to the future civilisation as a form of METI (Messaging to Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) β’ Similar problems: how to create self-evident message β’ Next civilisation on Earth will be in some sense alien β’ Real aliens could ο¬nd our message in the Moon and resurrect us.
- 50. βDigital immortalityβ as a form of messaging to the future AI β’ Similar problems: how to create self-evident message β’ Next civilisation on Earth will be in some sense alien β’ Real aliens could ο¬nd our message in the Moon and resurrect us. https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/4xangw/this-transhumanist-records-everything-around-him-so-his-mind-will-live-forever