BHEL -Result Update

1QFY2011 Result Update | Capital Goods
July 27, 2010

BHEL NEUTRAL
CMP Rs2,448
Performance Highlights Target Price -
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 %chg (yoy) 4QFY10 %chg (qoq) Investment Period -
Net Sales 6,480 5,597 16 13,559 (52)
EBITDA 844 517 63 2,487 (66) Stock Info
EBITDA margin (%) 13.0 9.2 18.3 Sector Capital Goods
PAT 668 471 42 1,910 (65) Market Cap (Rs cr) 119,847
Beta 0.7
BHEL reported strong 1QFY2011 performance, with revenues and PAT registering
52 Week High / Low 2,585/2,105
a yoy growth of 16% and 42%, respectively. Though the company posted a
Avg. Daily Volume 98,972
modest 16% yoy increase in top-line, it registered a wider-than-expected
Face Value (Rs) 10
expansion in operating margin largely aided by lower raw material costs.
Management has guided order inflows for FY2011 to be in the region of BSE Sensex 18,078
Rs58,000 – 60,000cr and has also indicated muted revenue growth going Nifty 5,431
forward on a high base. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Reuters Code BHEL.BO

Margin expansion drives bottom-line growth: While revenues grew by a mere16% Bloomberg Code BHEL@IN
yoy to Rs6,480cr (Rs5,597cr), EBDITA growth was impressive at 63% yoy to
Rs844cr (Rs517cr), backed by strong margin expansion of 380bp to 13% (9.2%).
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Lower raw material costs coupled with improving operational efficiencies mainly
Promoters 67.7
contributed to the expansion in EBIDTA margins resulting in 42% yoy growth in
bottom-line to Rs668cr, which was slightly above our estimates (Rs645cr). MF / Banks / Indian Fls 15.6
FII / NRIs / OCBs 15
Outlook and Valuation: The Indian power equipment market is undergoing
Indian Public / Others 1.7
structural changes with an increasing preference for fuel-efficient and supercritical
technologies. Given the growth prospects in the domestic power sector, few Indian
companies have set up or have initiated the process of setting up local
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
manufacturing facilities in collaboration with leading international players. As
Sensex 2.2 17.6 18.7
competition intensifies from both the domestic as well as overseas players, we do
not expect BHEL to increase its current market share in the long term. At the CMP BHEL (1.1) 8.2 39.2
of Rs2,448, the stock is quoting at 22.4x FY2011E EPS and at 18.8x FY2012E
EPS. Given the structural long-term concerns, we maintain our Neutral view on
the stock.

Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 26,212 32,880 40,095 47,111
% chg 35.8 25.4 21.9 17.5
Adj. Net Profit 3,126 4,311 5,359 6,364
% chg 9.3 37.9 24.3 18.8
EBITDA (%) 13.9 16.9 18.1 18.1
EPS (Rs) 63.9 88.1 109.5 130.0
P/E (x) 36.3 26.3 22.4 18.8
P/BV (x) 8.8 7.1 6.0 4.9
RoE (%) 26.4 29.9 30.0 28.6
RoCE (%) 28.9 33.3 31.8 30.4
EV/Sales (x) 3.9 3.2 2.5 2.1 Hemang Thaker
40403800 – extn: 342
EV/EBITDA (x) 24.8 18.6 12.8 10.6
hemang.thaker@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

1QFY2011 Result Update |BHEL

Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg 4QFY10 % chg
Net Sales 6,480 5,597 16 13,559 (52)
Raw Material 3,809 3,545 7 8,027 (53)
(% of Net Sales) 58.8 63.3 59.2
Employee Cost 1,338 1,114 20 1,743 (23)
(% of Net Sales) 20.6 19.9 12.9
Other Expenses 489 421 16 1,301 (62)
(% of Net Sales) 7.5 7.5 9.6
Total Expenditure 5,636 5,080 11 11,072 (49)
EBITDA 844 517 63 2,487 (66)
EBITDA (%) 13.0 9.2 18.3
Interest 4 4 18 (78)
Depreciation 127 96 32 165 (23)
Other Income 285 302 (6) 594 (52)
Profit before Tax 998 719 39 2,898 (66)
(% of Net Sales) 15.4 12.8 21.4
Total Tax 330 248 33 989 (67)
(% of PBT) 33 34.5 34.1
Reported PAT 668 471 42 1,910 (65)

Operating efficiency drives bottom line; Net profit up 42%: BHEL posted moderate
revenue growth of 16% for 1QFY2011. The bottom line grew mainly on account of
lower raw-material costs. As a percentage of sales, raw-material costs declined
sharply by 450bp yoy to 58.8% (63.3%) for 1QFY2011. Consequently, operating
margin (EBIT) expanded sharply by 350bp yoy to 11% (7.5%) in 1QFY2011.
(Notably, BHEL has managed raw-material costs at 55–59% of net sales, except for
3QFY2010 and 4QFY2010; however, an uptick in material prices for FY2011 will
brew concerns regarding the company’s profitability). The bottom line grew by 42%
yoy to Rs668cr (Rs471cr) in 1QFY2011, driven by better operating efficiencies and
lower taxation.

Exhibit 2: Raw-material cost as a percentage of net sales

66
64.0
64 63.3
62
59.5 59.2
60 58.5 58.2 58.8
57.3
58
(%)

55.5
56
54
52
50
1QFY09

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11


July 27, 2010 2


Exhibit 3: Segment-wise performance
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg 4QFY10 % chg
Revenue
Power 5,400 4,568 18.2 11,155 (52)
Industry 1,476 1,333 10.7 3,149 (53)
Total Revenue 6,876 5,901 16.5 14,304 (52)
EBIT
Power 1070 828 29.2 3,058 (65)
Industry 170 162 4.9 805 (79)
Total EBIT 1240 990 25.3 3,863 (68)
Revenues mix (%)
Power 78.5 77.4
Industry 21.5 22.6
EBIT Margin (%)
Power 19.8 18.1
Industry 11.5 12.2

During the quarter, the power division registered moderate 18.2% yoy
top-line growth to Rs5,400cr (Rs4,568cr). BHEL’s industry division, on the other
hand, continued to be under pressure and registered a sedate growth rate of
10.7% yoy, reaching Rs1,476cr (Rs1,333cr).

OPM of the power division improved during the quarter, increasing by 170bp to
19.8% (18.1%). This was mainly due to lower raw-material costs during the
quarter. However, the industry division’s OPM declined by 70bp yoy to 11.5%
(12.2%) in 1QFY2011.

Exhibit 4: Actual v/s Angel estimates
Particulars (Rs cr) Actual Estimates Var. (%)
Revenue 6,480 6,816 (4.9)
Operating Profit 718 757 (5.2)
PAT 668 645 3.6
EPS (Rs) 13.6 13.2 3.0

Conference Call - Key highlights

FY2011 order intake would amount between Rs58,000–60,000cr.
The current delivery time for supercritical projects would be 46–52 months for
660MW capacity and 48–54 months for 800MW capacity.
Capex for 1QFY2011 was about Rs400cr. Management has guided a capex
of Rs1,600cr to augment from 15GW to 20GW of manufacturing capacity.
Management expects to finalise the JV agreement with Toshiba by September
2010.
For wind turbine generation, the company is in the final stages of signing a
collaboration agreement. The company has identified the collaborator, which
will be announced in 4–5 weeks.

July 27, 2010 3


Order inflow: The order inflow for 1QFY2011 was lower by 12.7% yoy to
Rs10,824cr, as against Rs12,400cr for 1QFY2010. The power division accounted
for an intake for Rs9,270cr, while the industrial and export segments accounted for
the balance amount. The order book as of June 30, 2010, stood at Rs1,48,000cr.
During 1QFY2011, BHEL secured the single largest Rs6,300cr mega contract for
1,600MW (2x800MW) supercritical thermal power project in Karnataka from
Raichur Power Corporation (RPCL). RPCL is a joint venture (JV) company of
Karnataka Power Corp (KPCL) and BHEL, which has been set up to build, own and
operate thermal power plants with supercritical parameters in Karnataka.
Significantly, this is the first order for a power project bagged by BHEL through a
JV.

Exhibit 5: Quarterly order inflow

25,000
22,614

20,000
15,580 16,000
14,500 14,500 15,107
15,000
(Rs cr)

12,400
10,824
10,000 8,017

5,000

-
1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11


Exhibit 6: Quarterly order backlog
160,000 143,800 148,000
140,000 134,000
124,403 125,800
120,000 113,584 117,000
104,000
100,000 95,000
(Rs cr)

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

-
1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11


Exhibit 7: Angel EPS forecast
Year Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Var. (%)
FY2011E 109.5 113.0 (3.5)
FY2012E 130.0 137.0 (5.1)

July 27, 2010 4


Investment Arguments

Stronghold in power equipment market: BHEL is the largest supplier of power
equipment in India with a wide product portfolio consisting of boilers, gas turbines,
fabric filters, steam generators, switch gears, among others. The company
primarily caters to power-generating companies by offering steam turbines,
generators, boilers and matching auxiliaries up to 800MW rating, including
supercritical sets of 660/800MW. BHEL has facilities that can go up to 1,000MW
of unit size. BHEL is the only Indian player manufacturing large-size, gas-based
power plant equipment, comprising advanced-class gas turbines of up to 289MW
(ISO) rating for open and combined-cycle operations.

While competition is coming in from various players due to high prospects in the
power sector, BHEL continues to be strong, especially in the boiler turbine
generator (BTG) category, which forms a key part of the power plant. As a fully
integrated power equipment player, BHEL enjoys a strong domestic presence in the
power equipment market.

Well positioned for future: The Indian power sector is likely to witness massive
capacity additions of ~150,000MW over the next decade and BHEL, being the
dominant domestic player, is expected to be the major beneficiary of the unfolding
opportunities in the power equipment space. Of the 80,000MWs of BTG orders
placed during the Eleventh Plan, BHEL’s market share had been ~55%.
Approximately 62,500MW of BTG orders have been placed under the Twelfth Plan
and BHEL has been able to garner ~53% of the same. Orders are yet to be placed
for the balance portion of the Twelfth Plan capacity addition targets and we expect
BHEL to maintain its existing market share going forward. Furthermore, the
company is augmenting its manufacturing capacity from the current 15GW to
20GW, after having introduced new ratings of 150MW, 270MW, 525MW and
600MW in the sub-critical segment and 660MW and 800MW unit sizes in the
supercritical segment.

Strategic tie-ups to enhance competitive edge: The company is taking various
initiatives, including strategic alliances through joint ventures (JV) in the
supercritical technology and technology sourcing domains. To pursue inorganic
growth, tie-ups are being identified in the areas of: a) transmission with a focus on
765kV and 1,200kV segments (JV with Toshiba for transmission products); b)
photovoltaics (PV) with a focus on manufacturing silicon wafers, solar cells,
modules and setting up a green-field PV project, c) nuclear, with a focus on
building special nuclear reactors for which GE-Hitachi has signed an agreement
with NPCIL and BHEL.

Outlook and Valuation: The Indian power equipment market is undergoing
structural changes with an increasing preference for fuel-efficient and supercritical
technologies. Given the growth prospects in the domestic power sector, few Indian
companies have set up or have initiated the process of setting up local
manufacturing facilities in collaboration with leading international players. As
competition intensifies from both the domestic as well as overseas players, we do
not expect BHEL to increase its current market share in the long term. At the CMP
of Rs2,448, the stock is quoting at 22.4x FY2011E EPS and at 18.8x FY2012E EPS.
Given the structural long-term concerns, we maintain our Neutral view on the
stock.

July 27, 2010 5


Exhibit 8: Key assumptions
Particulars (%) FY2011E FY2012E
Order Inflow Growth - Power (18) (12)
Order Inflow Growth - Industry 25 25
Order Inflow Growth - Exports 15 15
Order Inflow Growth - Combined (6.3) 1.3
Order Backlog Growth - Combined 9.5 4.5

Order Book Ratios
Order Book/Sales 3.8 3.4
Order Book/Fwd Sales 3.2 3.1
Order Book to Sales (%) 29.0 31.1

Exhibit 9: One-year forward P/E band

3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Aug-04

Aug-09
Jun-05

Jun-10
Jul-07
Dec-02
May-03

Jan-05

Dec-07
May-08

Jan-10
Apr-06
Oct-03

Oct-08
Mar-04

Sep-06
Feb-07

Mar-09
Nov-05

Share Price (Rs) 5x 10x 15x 20x


Exhibit 10: Premium/Discount to Sensex P/E
110.0
90.0
70.0
50.0
30.0
10.0
(10.0)
(30.0)
(50.0)
Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10
Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Premium/Discount to Sensex Avg. Historical Premium


July 27, 2010 6


Exhibit 11: Recommendation summary
Upside FY2012E FY2012E FY2010-12E FY2012E FY2012E
Company Reco. CMP (Rs) Tgt Price
(%) P/BV (x) P/E (x) EPS CAGR (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
ABB* Neutral 814 - - 4.4 28.1 35.3 28.8 21.1
Areva T&D* Neutral 288 - - 4.9 29.2 11.3 26.9 22.8
BHEL Neutral 2,448 - - 4.9 18.8 21.5 30.4 28.6
Crompton Greaves Buy 275 307 11.6 4.4 16.4 7.2 34.0 27.3
Jyoti Structures Buy 163 215 31.9 1.9 9.1 21.4 27.6 20.6
KEC International Buy 495 648 30.9 2.4 9.5 22.3 27.7 26.2
Thermax Neutral 765 - - 5.5 20.9 30.9 39.4 29.7

July 27, 2010 7


Profit & Loss Statement
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 17,238 19,305 26,212 32,880 40,095 47,111
% chg 28.9 12.0 35.8 25.4 21.9 17.5
Net Raw Materials 9,487 10,662 16,030 19,307 24,045 28,841
Other Mfg costs 2,181 2,754 3,555 2,854 3,308 3,891
Personnel 2,369 2,608 2,984 5,153 5,495 5,829
Other - - - - - -
Total Expenditure 14,038 16,024 22,569 27,315 32,847 38,562
EBITDA 3,200 3,281 3,643 5,566 7,247 8,549
% chg 40.2 2.5 11.1 52.8 30.2 18.0
(% of Net Sales) 18.6 17.0 13.9 16.9 18.1 18.1
Depreciation&
273 297 334 458 579 686
Amortisation
EBIT 2,927 2,984 3,309 5,108 6,668 7,863
% chg 43.7 1.9 10.9 54.4 30.5 17.9
(% of Net Sales) 17.0 15.5 12.6 15.5 16.6 16.7
Interest & other
43 35 31 34 35 35
Charges
Other Income 824 1,445 1,497 1,516 1,612 1,956
(% of PBT) 22.2 32.9 31.4 23.0 19.5 20.0
Others - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 3,707 4,393 4,776 6,591 8,245 9,784
% chg 46.9 18.5 8.7 38.0 25.1 18.7
Extraordinary
(28.9) (37.4) (73.1) - - -
Expense/(Inc.)
PBT (reported) 3,736 4,430 4,849 6,591 8,245 9,784
Tax 1,321.4 1,571.1 1,710.6 2,280.0 2,885.7 3,424.5
(% of PBT) 35.4 35.5 35.3 34.6 35.0 35.0
PAT (reported) 2,415 2,859 3,138 4,311 5,359 6,360
Add: Share of earnings
- - - - - -
of associate
Less: Minority interest
- - - - - -
(MI)
Prior period items - - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 2,415 2,859 3,138 4,311 5,359 6,360
ADJ. PAT 2,414 2,860 3,126 4,311 5,359 6,360
% chg 44.1 18.5 9.3 37.9 24.3 18.7
(% of Net Sales) 14.0 14.8 11.9 13.1 13.4 13.5
Basic EPS (Rs) 98.6 58.4 63.9 88.1 109.5 129.9
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 49.3 58.4 63.9 88.1 109.5 129.9
% chg 44.1 18.5 9.3 37.9 24.3 18.7

July 27, 2010 8


Balance Sheet
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 245 490 490 490 490 490
Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 8,544 10,285 12,449 15,426 19,353 24,166
Shareholders’ Funds 8,788 10,774 12,939 15,915 19,842 24,656
Minority Interest - - - - - -
Total Loans 89 95 149 128 128 128
Deferred Tax Liability (935) (1,338) (1,840) (1,527) (1,527) (1,527)
Total Liabilities 7,942 9,531 11,248 14,516 18,443 23,257
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 4,135 4,443 5,225 7,827 8,722 10,877
Less: Acc. Depreciation 3,146 3,462 3,754 4,171 4,750 5,436
Net Block 989 981 1,470 3,656 3,971 5,440
Capital Work-in-Progress 303 658 1,157 289 895 239
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 8 8 52 80 80 80
Current Assets 20,980 27,906 36,901 42,933 50,897 58,786
Cash 5,809 8,386 10,315 9,788 12,632 15,091
Loans & Advances 1,141 1,388 2,424 2,814 3,208 3,769
Other 200 421 350 407 392 505
Current liabilities 14,337 20,022 28,333 32,442 37,400 41,289
Net Current Assets 6,643 7,884 8,568 10,491 13,497 17,497
Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 7,942 9,531 11,248 14,516 18,443 23,257

July 27, 2010 9


Cash Flow Statement
Profit before tax 3,736 4,430 4,849 6,591 8,245 9,784
Depreciation 273 297 334 458 579 686
(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital 1,043 1,336 1,244 (2,450) (163) (1,540)
Less: Other income 447 1,023 983 1,516 970 1,202
Direct taxes paid 1,484 1,974 2,213 2,280 2,886 3,425
Others 42 30 (18) (41) - -
Cash Flow from Operations 3,163 3,097 3,214 762 4,805 4,303
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets (431) (664) (1,280) (1,734) (1,500) (1,500)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments - - (44) (27) - -
Other income 447 1,023 983 1,516 970 1,202
Cash Flow from Investing 16 359 (341) (245) (530) (298)
Issue of Equity - - - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (469) 6 54 (22) - -
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 692 873 974 1,334 1,432 1,546
Others (343) (11) (24) 313 - -
Cash Flow from Financing (1,161) (868) (919) (1,356) (1,432) (1,546)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 1,675 2,577 1,929 (527) 2,844 2,459
Opening Cash balances 4,134 5,809 8,386 10,315 9,788 12,632
Closing Cash balances 5,809 8,386 10,315 9,788 12,632 15,091

July 27, 2010 10


Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 49.6 41.9 38.3 27.8 22.4 18.8
P/CEPS 44.6 38.0 34.6 25.1 20.2 17.0
P/BV 13.6 11.1 9.3 7.5 6.0 4.9
Dividend yield (%) 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1
EV/Sales 6.6 5.8 4.2 3.3 2.5 2.1
EV/EBITDA 31.9 30.1 26.4 19.8 12.8 10.6
EV/Total Assets 12.9 10.3 8.4 6.9 5.1 4.0
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 98.6 58.4 63.9 88.1 109.5 129.9
EPS (fully diluted) 49.3 58.4 63.9 88.1 109.5 129.9
Cash EPS 54.9 64.5 70.7 97.4 121.3 143.9
DPS 24.5 15.3 17.0 23.3 25.0 27.0
Book Value 179.5 220.1 264.3 325.1 405.3 503.7
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin (%) 17.0 15.5 12.6 15.5 16.6 16.7
Tax retention ratio 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 5.1 7.0 10.1 7.4 6.0 5.6
ROIC (Post-tax) (%) 55.8 69.6 82.4 75.1 64.5 60.6
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
8.6 24.8 16.3 15.8 17.8 17.8
(%)
Leverage (x) (0.7) (0.8) (0.8) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6)
Operating RoE (%) 25.1 35.1 30.2 38.8 34.9 34.5
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax) 39.5 34.5 31.9 35.1 40.6 38.5
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 105.0 148.9 226.2 137.1 119.3 109.5
RoE 30.0 29.2 26.4 29.9 30.0 28.6
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross
4.3 4.5 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.8
Block)
Inventory / Sales (days) 84 94 95 95 94 92
Receivables (days) 178 204 195 204 200 195
Payables (days) 66 75 72 74 72 71
Working capital cycle
18 (9) (24) 8 8 19
(ex-cash) (days)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity (0.7) (0.8) (0.8) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6)
Net debt to EBITDA (1.6) (2.2) (2.5) (1.7) (1.6) (1.6)
Interest Coverage (EBIT
76.2 96.2 124.5 152.5 208.8 246.2
/ Interest)

July 27, 2010 11


Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement BHEL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

July 27, 2010 12

BHEL -Result Update

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BHEL -Result Update