Bias in estimates of palaeobiodiversity: beyond the marine macrofossil record
Download as PPTX, PDF0 likes510 views
This document discusses biases that exist in estimates of biodiversity based on the fossil record. It explores how sampling biases have affected historical estimates of biodiversity through time, known as lineage-through-time plots. Several examples are given of biodiversity estimates for different fossil groups that have been re-analyzed using larger databases, subsampling techniques, and modeling to account for sampling biases and develop more accurate curves. The conclusions emphasize that sampling biases are pervasive in the fossil record and must be accounted for when making inferences about past biodiversity patterns through time.
Bias in estimates of palaeobiodiversity: beyond the marine macrofossil record
- 1. Bias in estimates of palaeobiodiversity: beyond the marine macrofossil record Graeme T. Lloyd
- 2. Modern diversity is vast…
- 3. …but all stems from a single ancestor
- 4. How did life get so diverse? Last Universal Common Ancestor ?
- 5. How did life get so diverse? Last Universal Common Ancestor
- 6. Extant vs. fossil record Red – lineage through time plot based on extant data only Navy – lineage through time plot based on fossil data Ezard et al. 2011
- 8. But can we trust the curves? David Raup Miller 2009, after Raup 1972
- 9. Raup’s two solutions Subsampling Modeling Alroy 2010; Lloyd 2012
- 10. Common cause hypothesis Collating the data –early curves Peters 2005
- 11. Beyond the marine macrofossils… Collating the data –early curves ? ? Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
- 12. Dinosaurs data –early curves Collating the Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
- 13. Dinosaurs – data –early curves Collating the common cause Non-marine Haq SL surface area Packages Miller SL DBCs DBFs Butler et al. 2011
- 14. Dinosaurs – data –early curves Collating the sampling bias Dinosaur-bearing localities Palaeoarea covered Phylogenetic diversity Taxonomic diversity Dinosaur-bearing formations Benton et al. 2011
- 15. Dinosaurs - subsampling Collating the data –early curves Raw + ghosts Raw Subsampled Lloyd et al. 2008
- 16. Dinosaurs - modeling curves Collating the data –early Lloyd 2012
- 17. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
- 18. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data Lloyd et al. 2012
- 19. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data vs.
- 20. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data - database Yellow pins – ODP/DSDP Green pins – Land-based localities
- 21. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – species Lloyd et al. 2012
- 22. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – sampling Lloyd et al. 2012
- 23. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – correlation richness rho = 0.02 richness sampling sampling rho = 0.40 rho = 0.48 Lloyd et al. 2012
- 24. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – subsampling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
- 25. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – modeling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
- 26. Fishes the data –early curves Collating Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
- 27. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
- 28. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 R^2 = 0.74 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 R^2 = 0.91 Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
- 29. Fishes - database–early curves Collating the data Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
- 30. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating raw diversity Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
- 31. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating proxies Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
- 32. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating correlations Formations rho = 0.64 rho = 0.71 Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
- 33. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating multivariate modeling Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
- 34. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating subsampling Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
- 35. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating modeling Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
- 36. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating cartilage vs. bone Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
- 37. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating cartilage vs. bone rho = 0.83 rho = 0.44 Formations rho = 0.53 rho = 0.20 Localities rho = 0.56 rho = 0.21 Grids Lloyd and Friedman, accepted
- 38. Conclusions data –early curves Collating the ? Sampling bias Sampling bias Common cause
- 39. Acknowledgements Collating the data –early curves Michael Steve Katie Matt Dave Rachel Benton Brusatte Davis Friedman Hone Jennings Davide Paul Marcello Manabu Andrew James Jeremy Pisani Pearson Ruta Sakamot Smith Tarver Young o
- 40. Papers, data, R code etc. Collating the data –early curves http://www.graemetlloyd.com/