Bord Gáis Energy Index June 2015

JUNE 2015
Bord Gáis
Energy Index
Understanding energy
BGE/EI/UE/0715

Bord Gáis Energy Index
Commentary
bordgaisenergy.ie June 2015
Bord Gáis Energy Index (Dec 31st 2009 = 100)
The June 15 Bord Gáis Energy Index fell by 3% month-on-month due to weaker oil prices.
The price of oil slumped toward the end of June, falling to a low of US$61.35 a barrel, as the intensifying economic crisis
in Greece and subsequent dampening of the dollar weakened sentiment. The oil glut is still evident with the oil market’s
supply-demand differential rising to almost 3 million barrels a day.
In June 2015 the Index stood at 107.
Summary
1 Mth
3 Mth
12 Mth
Bord Gáis Energy Index 12 Month Rolling Average
50
100
150
200
Jan-15Jul-14Jan-14Jul-13Jan-13Jul-12Jan-12Jul-11Jan-11Jul-10Jan-10Jul-09Jan-09
-19%
-3%
(Continued overleaf)
2%

Commentary
Bord Gáis Energy Index (continued)
HOT TOPICS
During the month the IIEA published a book called Britain and Europe: The Endgame which builds on over 20 years
of study in the Institute of International and European Affairs. The book examines the potential economic implications
of a UK exit from the EU which would leave Ireland particularly exposed. Interestingly, Edgar Morgenroth examined
the impact on energy markets specifically in one chapter. We are reminded that Ireland and the UK are closely linked
in terms of energy markets and Ireland imports 89% of its oil products and 93% of its gas from the UK. The fact
that there is a single All-Island Electricity Market (SEM), which functions via North-South electricity interconnection,
would make a UK exit more complex.
Furthermore, the Irish electricity grid is linked to the British grid since 2001 via the Moyle Interconnector to Scotland
and since 2012 via the East-West Interconnector. The gas grids are also linked via an interconnector to Scotland, and
the bulk of the gas consumed in Ireland is supplied via that interconnector. Morgenroth’s view is that Interconnection
improves security of supply and, given the differences in wholesale prices between Great Britain and Ireland,
reduces energy prices in Ireland because British wholesale electricity prices are lower than those in Ireland. This
is true historically but looking forward Morgenroth claims that the difference in prices is expected to narrow in the
future because the current wholesale price in the UK is not high enough to make investment in electricity generation
profitable, which has led to significant underinvestment. According to Morgenroth, a UK exit from the EU could
impinge on the SEM and would impact significantly on the potential and cost of integrating with the IEM {EU policy
aims at even closer linkage and integration with the completion of a wider Internal Energy Market (IEM)} in the EU,
encompassing electricity and gas networks. If the UK were outside the IEM, Morgenroth claims that more expensive
interconnection with France might be required. Not being subject to EU targets for green house gas (GHG) emission
reductions, the UK may also be less interested in further interconnection in order to import wind-generated electricity
from Ireland.
According to Morgenroth, security of energy supply is often taken for granted but is far less certain given the
increased frequency of severe weather events and geopolitical frictions. Interconnection significantly improves
security of supply and indeed Ireland is heavily dependent on gas supplies via the interconnector with Scotland.
These gas supplies are particularly important as gas plays a central role in electricity generation in Ireland. While the
interconnector comprises three offshore pipes, a section of the onshore pipe in Scotland comprises a single pipe,
which poses some vulnerability.
Morgenroth highlights the economic cost of energy outages and in relation to gas supplies he states that it has been
estimated that, depending on the day in the week and the season, losing gas supply for electricity generation would
cost between €0.1 billion and €1 billion per day. If, in addition, gas supplies for heating were to be lost, the cost would
be even higher. Under current EU rules, if there is a shortage of gas, Member States must ensure that the available
supply is shared equitably and they are not allowed to hoard their own supply at a neighbour’s expense. This improves
security of supply inside the EU. If the UK were outside the EU this protection would no longer be automatic but
would instead be negotiated, possibly at a price, between the UK and Ireland.
Overall, a UK exit from the EU could impact negatively on security of energy supplies and might increase the cost
of connecting to the IEM. A UK exit from the EU would have a negative impact on energy security in Ireland, which
can be mitigated through additional investment, for example in gas storage facilities or interconnection with France,
which come at a significant cost. However, a UK exit would also make Ireland more remote from the IEM in the EU,
connection to which is expected to raise energy costs in Ireland.

Commentary
Oil Index
Oil priced traded in a narrow range during June, hitting a low of US$60.94 a barrel on 5 June when it was confirmed
that OPEC would keep production targets unchanged. However, oil markets rebounded sharpely (hitting a June high
of US$66.36 a barrel) as traders reacted to positive US employment numbers. Persistent crude inventory withdrawals
in the US helped support a recovery in prices during this period. The price of oil slumped toward the end of June,
falling to a low of US$61.35 a barrel, as the intensifying economic crisis in Greece and subsequent dampening of
the dollar eroded investor’s sentiment. The oil glut is still evident with the oil market’s supply-demand differential
rising to almost 3 million barrels a day in May, according to the EIA Short-term Energy outlook. Oil supply declined
by 100,000 barrels a day month-on-month during May, but still remains more than 3 million barrels a day higher
compared to the same time last year. With Saudi Arabia and Iraq expected to test record production levels in June,
OPEC production will remain strong. Outside of OPEC, US production rebounded during June. Crude output currently
stands at approximately 9.5million barrels a day, compared to 9.2million barrels in May. This suggests that despite the
halving of onshore drilling rigs in the US, efficiency gains could be generating tangible results.
50
100
150
200
Oil
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
Data Source: ICE
1 Mth
3 Mth
12 Mth-30%
-4%
11%

Commentary
Natural Gas Index
The average day-ahead price for June was 43.31 pence per therm (p/th), marginally weaker than the previous month’s
average price of 43.78p/th. By way of comparison, the June outturn in recent years was 39.48p/th in 2014, 59.74p/th
in 2013 and 54.95p/th in 2012. UK demand in June averaged 178mcm, 16mcm above expected demand levels for the
month as calculated by the National Grid.
Forward prices were weaker despite some bullish news flow with winter 15 & summer 16 contracts trading lower by
.65p and .34p respectively. The Dutch government announced that production from the Groningen gas field, the
largest in Europe, would be capped at 30bcm from 39bcm following heightened seismic activity in the region. The
market had been expecting a reduction to 33bcm-35bcm. The UK system imports gas from the Netherlands via the
BBL pipeline and there has been a reduction in BBL flows as the Dutch market held gas to compensate for reduced
Groningen production.
As the month came to a close, Naftogaz, the national gas company in Ukraine, announced that it would suspend
imports of Russian gas after failing to agree a new gas deal for supplies in the third quarter. Russia supplies about one
third of European gas demand, much of it via pipelines that transit the Ukraine. The EU and the two sides had engaged
in an effort to agree gas supplies ahead of the coming winter season. The failure to reach agreement increased
concerns that Russian gas supplies to Europe could be threatened in the coming winter season. Naftogaz assured
the market that transportation of gas through Ukraine to Europe will continue regardless of a deal being concluded.
However, Ukraine will look to Europe, in particular Hungary and Slovakia, for additional gas supply to replace the lost
Russian imports.
Concerns around a Greek exit from the euro brought the euro sterling exchange rate into sharp focus, as a weakening
of the euro would increase the relative cost of UK gas for euro buyers. Oil prices continued to weaken over the month
with Brent closing the month 3% lower in dollar terms. Given oil indexation remains a feature of many European
contracts; the falling oil price has been an additional drag on gas curve contracts.
50
100
150
200
250
300
Natural Gas
1 Mth
3 Mth
12 Mth
-6%
Data Source: Spectron Group
24%
0%

Commentary
1%
1%
Coal Index
The ICE Rotterdam Monthly Coal Futures Contract recovered marginally in June, rising by US$1.35/mt month-on-
month to close at US$60.20/mt on 30 June. The coal futures price recorded a modest recovery during the month
having closed at US$56.75/mt on 9 June, a level not seen since March 2009. At the time, the weakness in the spot
physical market was reportedly due to a combination of a lack of buying interest due to the low coal burn in Europe
and a lot of supply still on offer, particularly from Colombia. On 30 June Europe-delivered CIF ARA Cal-16 thermal
coal derivatives jumped above US$60/mt to an almost four-month high reportedly due to strong utility bids. The
rise in the price came as a surprise with it being reported that there was no clear supply-demand fundamental or
macroeconomic reason to trigger such an uptick. However, market participants said that there could be an additional
incentive for utilities to go on the buy-side due to a recent rise in the German clean dark spreads — the profits accrued
from coal fired power generation taking into account carbon emissions. German power prices had been given a boost
recently, particularly in the front of the curve, due to a heatwave with temperatures forecast to peak at 39 degrees
Celsius. At the time, the front-quarter Q3-15 German clean dark spread was at €2.67/MWh, its highest level since
8 April.
50
100
150
200
Coal
1 Mth
3 Mth
12 Mth
-2%
Data Source: ICE

Commentary
Electricity Index
Excluding capacity payments, the monthly average wholesale price of electricity continued to drop month-on-month.
At €49.93/MWh, the average monthly wholesale electricity price was the lowest recorded in 2015. Falling demand
over the summer period had a significant influence as fewer thermal plants were required to meet eroding demand.
In addition, the cost of a unit of electricity was lower due to a softening in the clean spark. In general, the wholesale
price of electricity can be assessed by examining three components: the UK wholesale cost of gas, the European
wide price of emitting one tonne of carbon and spark. At a monthly average of approximately €5.75/MWh, it was the
second lowest spark recorded in 2015 and the third lowest since 2008. During the month, relatively steady running
of thermal plants, falling demand and periods of low volatility in wind output contributed to a low spark as it limited
the number of plant starts and price events. The costs associated with scheduling additional plant feed through
to the wholesale cost of power and fewer plant starts in June reduced the number of price events. However, lower
sparks due to the growing influence of wind output does distort investment signals, making the economic case for
essential gas powered thermal plants less attractive. These trends place significant financial pressure on those who
have invested in efficient gas fired generation asserts for the Irish grid in recent years. With reduced demand, the
impact of wind volatility on the system can be even more extreme when gas units need to be remunerated for shorter
and shorter periods of output.
50
100
150
200
Electricity
1 Mth
3 Mth
12 Mth
Data Source: SEMO
-9%
0%
0%

Commentary
Versus the euro, the US dollar weakened slightly during the month, as positive manufacturing data outside of North
America supported risk sentiment in non-dollar assets according to Thomson Reuters. The Fed also struck a dovish
tone at its last meeting, citing a “cyclically weak” labour market as a risk to the wider economy. That together with
inflation, which continues to undershoot the Fed’s target of 2%, suggested the central bank would be more inclined
to raise rates just once this year. Some economists are now pencilling in an interest rate hike in December instead of
September. According to Thomson Reuters, in light of moderating expectations for US monetary policy tightening,
global risk assets such as crude oil should be supported in the near-term. However, an economic event such as
one involving Greece could again lead to a flight to safe-haven USD assets. Amid the Greek crisis, sterling gained
throughout the month versus the euro.
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
FX Rates
FX Rates
EURUSD
EURGBP
1 Mth
3 Mth
12 Mth
1 Mth
3 Mth
12 Mth
-19%
-11%
-2%
-1%
EURUSD EURGBP
1%
4%

Commentary
Market Outlook
If an agreement is reached between Iran and six world powers and sanctions over Iran’s oil exports are lifted, a “standoff”
among the cartel’s top producers is expected. This could intensify the aggressive pricing strategies being pursued by
OPEC members, therefore leading the group of nations to an even larger market share on the back of non-OPEC
producers in 2016. So will the global oil glut ease? In the short run this is possible as there is strong demand for refined
products and demand for actual crude oil has supported prices (demand accelerated by more than 1million barrels a day
in 2015, assisted by low oil prices). Notably reserve additions in China and India have lifted demand levels considerably.
However, if additional Iranian supplies appear in 2016, continued rising demand may be insufficient to mop up a growing
excess. Despite the significant decline in global prices, US frackers have adapted brilliantly. Reportedly, only five firms
out of several hundred have gone bust. The industry has cut costs by a quarter, halved the number of active rigs and
still managed to keep production stable. But the pressure is building. Profits have been propped up by temporary gains
from derivatives. Exclude that, and almost half of listed shale firms have distressed balance-sheets according to The
Economist Magazine. If oil prices do not jump, there will be a wave of defaults and takeovers by the year-end according
to The Economist. The impact on US production will be closely assessed.
In early June, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that oil prices may have further to fall despite stabilising
in recent months - and even beginning to rise modestly - because of the “massive” oversupply. The IEA said lower oil
prices were likely to last well into 2016. According to the IEA, “the oil market was massively oversupplied in the second
quarter of 2015 and remains so today.” In addition, “it is equally clear that the market’s ability to absorb that oversupply
is unlikely to last. Onshore storage space is limited,” it said, adding “something has to give”. The IEA said OPEC crude oil
production rose by 340,000 barrels a day in June to 31.7 million barrels a day, a three-year high, led by record output
from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The agency added non-OPEC supply growth was expected to
grind to a halt in 2016 as lower oil prices and spending cuts take their toll. Another bearish factor is the global economy
as highlighted by the IMF. According to the fund, large parts of the world are still struggling with the burden dumped
on their shoulders by the financial crisis - even now, eight years after its onset. Risks highlighted by the IMF include the
“never-ending crisis in Greece”, rising US interest rates (the big concern about the rise when it comes is the potential
impact on financial markets, especially in emerging economies. Higher interest rates in the US will encourage investors
to move money back there, money that went overseas in the first place because rates were so low), China’s slowdown
and political events.

Commentary
The contents of this report are provided solely as an information guide. The report is presented to you “as is” and may or may not be correct, current,
accurate or complete. While every effort is made in preparing material for publication no responsibility is accepted by or on behalf of Bord Gáis
Energy Limited, the SEMO, ICE Futures Europe, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland or Spectron Group Limited (together, the “Parties”) for
any errors, omissions or misleading statements within this report. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or liability accepted by
any of the Parties or any of their respective directors, employees or agents in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained
in this report. Each of the Parties and their respective directors, employees or agents does not and will not accept any liability in relation to the
information contained in this report. Bord Gáis Energy Limited reserves the right at any time to revise, amend, alter or delete the information provided
in this report.
For more information please contact:
Bord Gáis Energy Pressoffice@bge.ie
or Alan Tyrrell at PSG Plus 086 850 8673
Re-weighting of Bord Gáis Energy Index
Following the SEAI’s 2011 review of energy consumption in
Ireland, there was a 6.4% drop in overall energy consumption.
Oil continues to be the dominant energy source with most of the
oil used in transport and the remainder being used for thermal
energy. For the purposes of the Bord Gáis Energy Index, the total
final energy consumption in Ireland fell 1,089 ktoe (toe: a tonne of
oil equivalent is a unit of energy, roughly equivalent to the energy
content of one tonne of crude oil) between 2009 and 2011. This
fall was made up of a 1,022 ktoe drop in oil consumption (down
13.5%), a 20 ktoe drop in natural gas (down 12.6%), a 7 ktoe drop
in electricity (down 0.3%) and a 40 ktoe drop in coal (down
10.98%). The Bord Gáis Energy Index has been re-weighted in
January 2013 to reflect the latest consumption data. The impact
has been minimal and has resulted in slight reductions in the share
of oil and gas and a slight increase in the weighting of electricity
in the overall Index.
Oil
61.96%
Gas
14.72%
Coal
3.1%Electricity
20.22%

Bord Gáis Energy Index June 2015

More Related Content

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked (6)

Similar to Bord Gáis Energy Index June 2015 (20)

More from Bord Gáis Energy (7)

Recently uploaded (20)

Bord Gáis Energy Index June 2015