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C10 Projects
CT-RAMP-DynusT Integration
Analysis of results, model system
performance, and readiness for
practice
1ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
OVERVIEW OF 2 PROJECTS
Commonality and differences between ARC and MORPC applications
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 2
2 Parallel applications
Columbus, OH (MORPC)
• 1.4M population
• 2,000 TAZs
• 18,000 MAZs
• 10,000 links
• CT-RAMP2 ABM
• DynusT daily simulation of
6M vehicles
Atlanta, GA (ARC)
• 5.0M population
• 5,873 TAZs
• No MAZs currently
• 50,000 links
• CT-RAMP1 ABM
• DynusT daily simulation of
20M vehicles
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 3
Hardware Information
• ARC:
– RAM: 448GB of RAM – New computer will have 1TB
– Processors: 3.2 GHz CPU, 48 physical cores
• MORPC:
– RAM: 256GB – Considering upgrading to 1TB
– Processors: Dual 18 Intel Xeon E5 2699 2.3GHz 36 core processors
• Model runs faster without hyper-threading (i.e. run only 36 threads)
• WSP:
– ARC runs:
• 128 GB RAM
• 2 x Intel® Xeon® CPU E5-2670 0 @ 2.60GHz
– Each CPU with 8 physical, 16 virtual cores
– MORPC runs:
• 128 GB RAM
• 2 x Intel® Xeon® CPU E5-2667 0 @ 2.90GHz
– Each CPU with 6 physical, 12 virtual cores
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 4
Highlights on ABMs
• CT-RAMP1 (ARC):
– Fully disaggregate micro-simulation of HHs & persons
– Tour-level consistency but based on primary destination,
stops inserted later
– Intra-household interactions
– Temporal resolution of 30 min (required post-processing
for DTA)
• CT-RAMP2 (MORPC):
– Multi-destination tour formation and combinatorial mode
choice
– Continuous time (was designed to work with DTA
seamlessly)
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 5
Setting of Individual Schedule
Adjustment Module (iSAM)
• Mandatory activities (work and school):
– High penalties for arriving late or departing early
– Longer travel times are accommodated:
• By departing from home earlier in outbound direction
• By arriving back home later in inbound direction
• Non-mandatory activities:
– Relatively low penalties for arriving late or departing early
– Substantial penalties for shortening duration
– Longer travel times are accommodated:
• In flexible ways depending on the tour structure
• By stretching the active time window at the expense of in-home
activities
• Possible to explore scenarios with more flexibility for work
– (Ohio is asking about schedule flexibility in the HTS)
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 6
Current Performance
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 7
Model component MORPC ARC
PopSyn (P) 2 hours (MAZs) 1 hour (TAZs)
Core ABM iteration (A) 4 hours (multi-threaded) 6 hours (distributed)
DynusT iteration (D) 30 min 3 hours
Trajectory processing (T) 2 hours 6 hours
Schedule adjustment (S) 10 min 30 min
Targeted production run
P+3A+3T+3×3S+3×3×5D
2+3×4+3×2+9×0.2+45×0.5 =
42 hours
1+3×6+3×6+9×0.5+45×3
= 177 hours
Implemented full runs for this
report for 1 scenario
3A+3T+3×3S+3×3×3D
3×4+3×2+9×0.2+27×0.5 = 34
hours
Implemented internal loop for
this report for 1 scenario 3S+40D
3×0.5+40×3=122 hours
Comparable DTA run for this
report w/fixed demand for 1
scenario 40D
40×3=120 hours
DTA Runtime Sensitivity to Congestion
• Different from ABM, DTA runtime per iteration is
sensitive to network conditions:
– Base scenario average ARC DynusT runtime per iteration:
• Simulation: 100 min
• Routing: 85 min
– I-85 Bridge closure scenario average ARC DynusT runtime
per iteration:
• Simulation: 240 min
• Routing: 100 min
• Application of internal loop with schedule adjustment
helped improve runtime:
– I-85 Bridge closure DynusT runtime became close to Base
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 8
CT-RAMP2 specifics
• Common features of most ABMs in practice:
– Tour as main unit of modeling (travel generation)
– Micro-simulation of individual persons & HHs
– Explicit intra-HH interactions
– Enhanced spatial resolution (MAZ)
• Unique features of CT-RAMP2:
– Explicit activity generation followed by tour formation
(long-term mobility pattern changes)
– Continuous time and seamless integration with DTA
– Consistency of individual patterns within time-space
constraints (towards AgBM)
9ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
CT-RAMP2 blocks
1. Population synthesizer w/university sub-model
2. Long-term mandatory activity arrangements
3. Mid-term mobility attributes
4. Special events
5. Activity generation & tour formation
6. Tour TOD
7. Tour & trip mode choice
8. Within-tour time allocation and trip departure
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 10
Cube Interface of MORPC ABM
Demo for Lima
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 11
Key Features of CT-RAMP2 Essential
for Integration with DTA
• High level of temporal resolution:
– 15 min for tour schedules
– Continuous for trip departure time
• High level of spatial resolution for individual trip loading:
– 2,000 TAZs broken into 18,000 MAZs
• Seamless translation of person trips into vehicle trips:
– Extended set of intra-household interactions and explicit
modeling of joint travel
– Identification of auto driver and passenger roles for joint trips
• LOS manager that works with Accumulated Data Bank of
Individual Trajectories (ADIT) instead of static skims
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 12
DynusT Set Up & Network Information
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 13
DynusT Set Up & Network Information
• Cube network was saved to shape file and
imported into DynusT
• MORPC - Cube junction files were available for
controlled intersections. These files were
used to generate DynusT intersection files.
• ARC – Synchro intersection files were used to
generate DynusT intersection files.
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 14
DynusT Set Up & Network Information
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 15
• Time dependent lanes can be set up as “work zones”
DynusT Set Up & Network Information
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 16
• Can specify:
– Start and end time by minute
– Speed limit changes (if any)
– Queue discharge rate (saturation flow rate) per lane
– Capacity reduction rate (code max cap and reduce)
Integration Layer
Components
• External Loop 1
w/mining
individual
trajectories LOS
• Internal Loop 2
w/individual
Schedule
Adjustment
Module (iSAM)
17
Microsimulation ABM
(CT-RAMP)
Microsimulation DTA
(Dynus-T)
List of
individual
vehicle
trips &
tours
Individual
trajectories
for the
current list of
trips
ISAM (Individual Schedule
Adjustment Module):
Consolidation of individual
schedules (inner loop 2 for
departure time corrections)
Sample of alternative origins,
destinations, and departure times
Individual
LOS
estimates for
potential trips
List of
individual
person trips
& tours by
mode
Transit microsimulation
(Fixed LOS)
List of
individual
transit
trips &
tours
ADIT
(Accumulated
Database of
Individual
Trajectories):
LOS Mining
Integration Layer 2
Loop1Loop2
Travel
“stress”
evaluation
measures
Sample of
households
for re-
modeling all
choices
Integration Layer 1
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Essence of Each Loop
• External Loop 1:
– Generates activity patterns & schedules
– Uses individualized LOS through trajectory mining
• Internal Loop 2:
– Simulates activity patterns
– Adjusts schedules for realistic trip chain loading
– Uses individual trajectories
– Evaluates “stress” measures
18ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
ARC SCENARIOS
Results, analysis, and performance of internal loop
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 19
4 Scenarios
• Base DynusT with fixed demand
• Base DynusT+iSAM (schedule adjustment)
• I-85 Bridge closure DynusT with fixed demand
• I-85 Bridge closure DynusT+iSAM (schedule
adjustment)
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 20
Regional DTA Network Development
• Mesoscopic is a Scale, DTA is a Method
• Start DTA Network Development with:
• a Commercially Available Street Centerline File (NAVTEQ)
• www.openstreetmap.org is another option
• Start with your Regional Travel Demand Model Network
• Network Consolidation (Black Links were Merged)
ARC Regional DTA Network
with Signalized Intersections
http://arcg.is/290ivBS
NAVTEQ DTA Signalized Intersections
NAVSTREETS - Green
Additional - Red
Atlanta Metro Signalized Intersections
Atlanta Metro Ramp Meters in DTA Network
Atlanta Metro Regional DTA
Estimation & Calibration
Traffic Flow Models
GP
HOV
26
Coordinated Signals on Major Atlanta Corridors
Synchro UTDF
Atlanta RTOP Corridors (34)
Regional Traffic Operation Program
SR10D
SR10G
SR12
SR120
SR138E
SR138S
SR139
SR140G
SR141N
SR141S
SR154A
SR154D
SR155N
SR155S
SR20
SR237
SR280
SR38E
SR3NA
SR3NC
SR3S
SR42
SR5
SR6
SR85
SR8A
SR8CF
SR8D
SR8DF
SR8G
SR92&14
0R
SR92C
SR9N
SR9S
State Route - 42 South Bound
INRIX vs. DTA Speeds
Synchro Files & ABM-DTA Integration
• Intersection Geometry (Left & Right Turn Lanes)
• Traffic Signal Timing & NEMA Phasing
• Green Times, Amber times, Offsets
Overall Scenario Comparison
Scenario Average trip time Average delay Unfinished trips
Base DynusT
w/fixed demand
25.81 min 2.90 min 0
Base DynusT
w/iSAM
24.63 min 2.64 min 0
I-85 Bridge closure
DynusT w/fixed
demand
33.89 min 4.24 min 38,728
I-85 Bridge closure
w/iSAM
30.99 min 3.73 min 26,151
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 31
Base DynusT w/Fixed
Demand
32ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Base DynusT w/Fixed
Demand: Convergence
33ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Inner
Loop
Iter Run type
DynusT
UE iters
Upper limit vehicle
departs
Simulation
horizon
iSAM LP
Failures
Vehicles Still in the
Network Relative Gap
minutes clock
First
UE iter
Final
UE iter First UE iter Final UE iter
N/A cold 30 1620 3:00 AM 2000 N/A 774404 0 0.8409773 0.1104254
N/A cold 40 1620 3:00 AM 2000 N/A 774404 0 0.8409773 0.117388
Base DynusT+iSAM
34ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Base DynusT+iSAM:
Convergence
35ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Inner
Loop
Iter Run type
DynusT
UE iters
Upper limit vehicle
departs
Simulation
horizon
iSAM LP
Failures
Vehicles Still in the
Network Relative Gap
minutes clock
First
UE iter
Final
UE iter First UE iter Final UE iter
0 cold 15 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 774404 0 0.8409773 0.1438067
1 warm 15 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 0 0 0.1585612 0.1058591
2 warm 5 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 0 0 0.1155581 0.1099977
3 warm 5 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 0 0 0.1178765 0.1075283
iSAM improves DTA convergence as expected
Base DynusT+iSAM: Adjustment
of Departure Time to Work
36ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
I-85 Bridge Closure DynusT
w/Fixed Demand
37ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
I-85 Bridge Closure DynusT
w/Fixed Demand: Convergence
38ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Inner
Loop
Iter Run type
DynusT
UE iters
Upper limit vehicle
departs
Simulation
horizon
iSAM LP
Failures
Vehicles Still in the
Network Relative Gap
minutes clock
First
UE iter
Final
UE iter First UE iter Final UE iter
NA cold 30 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 741658 41013 0.8399832 0.305708
NA cold 40 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 741658 38728 0.8399832 0.312108
Convergence w/fixed demand under critical network conditions is problematic
I-85 Bridge Closure
DynusT+iSAM
39ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
I-85 Bridge Closure
DynusT+iSAM: Convergence
40ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Inner
Loop
Iter Run type
DynusT
UE iters
Upper limit vehicle
departs
Simulation
horizon
iSAM LP
Failures
Vehicles Still in the
Network Relative Gap
minutes clock
First
UE iter
Final
UE iter First UE iter Final UE iter
0 cold 15 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 741658 37381 0.8399832 0.3215604
1 warm 15 1620 3:00 AM 2000 726 31360 25272 0.3594274 0.2693154
2 warm 5 1620 3:00 AM 2000 415 21806 26065 0.2974289 0.2903202
3 warm 5 1620 3:00 AM 2000 415 24161 26151 0.314918 0.2907585
iSAM improves DTA convergence as expected although more schedule relaxations needed
I-85 Bridge Closure DynusT+iSAM:
Adjustment of Departure Time to Work
41ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Base DynusT vs. Base DynusT+iSAM:
Research Questions
• What schedule adjustments would be
necessary?
• How would schedule adjustments affect
convergence?
• How would schedule adjustments affect the
network loading and other performance
measures?
• How would schedule adjustments affect
validation against traffic counts?
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 42
Traffic Counts (ADT) Correlation Analysis –
Base DynusT with Fixed Demand
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 43
Traffic Counts (ADT) Correlation
Analysis – DynusT+iSAM
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 44
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 45
Base DynusT w/fixed demand Base DynusT w/iSAM
•Minimal rescheduling needed for base
•Convergence somewhat better with iSAM
ARC Base Network
Daily Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand
46ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
ARC Base Network
Daily Volume Difference%: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand
47ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
ARC Base Network
AM Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand
48ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
ARC Base Network
AM Volume Difference%: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand
49ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
ARC Base Network
PM Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand
50ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
ARC Base Network
PM Volume Difference%: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand
51ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Observations on Impact of Schedule
Adjustments for Base Scenario
• Overall minor differences in assigned volumes at daily
level:
– Some local impacts on certain facilities in congested
corridors are stronger
• Much more substantial impact in AM period:
– Minor rescheduling allows for accommodation of more
traffic in the most congested corridors
• Less prominent effect in PM period:
– Departure from work is largely fixed in current setting of
iSAM
– Rescheduling and spreading of non-work trips allowed for
accommodation of somewhat more traffic in congested
corridors
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 52
Base DynusT vs. Bridge Closure
DynusT: Research Questions
• How would DTA with fixed demand perform
under critical network conditions?
• How realistic would be the results?
• How substantial is the network redundancy in
Atlanta to resolve the capacity drop by means
of route choice only?
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 53
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 54
Base DynusT w/fixed demand I-85 Bridge closure DynusT w/fixed demand
•Rescheduling of departure time is not allowed
•Huge change in volume profiles with many vehicles stuck in the network
•Probably unrealistic simulation of bridge closure
Base DynusT+iSAM vs. Bridge Closure
DynusT+iSAM
• How would DTA with schedule adjustments
perform under critical network conditions?
• How realistic would be the results?
• How substantial is the network redundancy in
Atlanta to resolve the capacity drop by a
combined effect of route choice and
departure time choice?
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 55
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 56
Base DynusT+iSAM I-85 Bridge closure DynusT+iSAM
•Substantial departure time shift observed
•Substantial change in volume profiles but with fewer vehicles stuck in the network
•More realistic simulation of bridge closure but may still need more schedule adjustments
Bridge Closure DynusT vs. Bridge
Closure DynusT+iSAM
• How would schedule adjustments make user
response to critical capacity drop more
realistic?
• How would schedule adjustments affect DTA
convergence under critical conditions?
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 57
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 58
I-85 Bridge closure DynusT w/fixed demand I-85 Bridge closure DynusT+iSAM
•Substantial departure time shift and peak spreading observed
•Substantial change in volume profiles but with fewer vehicles stuck in the network
•More realistic simulation of bridge closure but may still need more schedule adjustments
ARC I-85 Bridge Closure
Daily Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand
59ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
ARC I-85 Bridge Closure
Daily Volume Difference%: iSAM vs.Fixed Demand
60ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
ARC I-85 Bridge Closure
AM Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand
61ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
ARC I-85 Bridge Closure
AM Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand
62ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
ARC I-85 Bridge Closure
PM Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand
63ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
ARC I-85 Bridge Closure
PM Volume Difference%: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand
64ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Observations on Model Response to
Bridge Closure
• DTA with fixed demand creates an unrealistic
pattern with infeasible levels of congestion:
– Rerouting by itself is not enough due to limited
network redundancy
• Allowing for schedule adjustments makes
simulation more realistic:
– Many departure time shifts to earlier or later
hours to avoid the highest congestions
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 65
MORPC SCENARIOS
Results, analysis, and performance of internal & external loops
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 66
Important Research Questions when LOS Skims
are Replaced with Individual Trajectories
• Would the trajectories from several DTA
iterations be enough to cover the need for LOS
for ABM?
• How good would be the match between the
individual trips and trajectories?
• Do we still need aggregate skims to fill the gaps?
• How different are travel times from DTA
compared to static assignment?
• Would the ABM-DTA integrated model require a
complete recalibration compared to standard
ABM?
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 67
Trajectory Coverage Stats
68
TOD
Aggregation level
1 2 3 4 9 Total
Before 6 83.0% 12.5% 0.2% 0.1% 4.2% 100.0%
6-10 61.3% 5.6% 19.5% 7.6% 5.9% 100.0%
10-15 93.4% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 100.0%
15-19 66.6% 5.9% 17.2% 6.2% 4.2% 100.0%
After 19 92.0% 6.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 100.0%
Total 77.7% 6.1% 9.6% 3.6% 3.0% 100.0%
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
1. MAZ to MAZ, 5 minute congested resolution
2. MAZ to MAZ, 15 minute congested
resolution
3. TAZ to TAZ, 15 minute congested resolution
4. TAZ to TAZ, 60 minute congested resolution
9. Use TAZ to TAZ skim
Travel Time Differences by aggLevel:
Trajectory-Skim, min
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
aggLevel1
aggLevel2
aggLevel3
aggLevel4
69ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Travel Time Differences by TOD:
Trajectory-Skim, min
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
early
am
midday
pm
night
70ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Example of Analysis of Time Budgets
71ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
IR-670 EB Hard Shoulder
Running Lane
3:30PM – 6:30PM
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 72
MORPC Diurnal Profiles:
Base DynusT w/Fixed Demand
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 73
MORPC Diurnal Profiles:
IR-670 HSR Lane w/Fixed Demand
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 74
Daily Volume Difference:
HSR vs. Base w/Fixed Demand
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 75
DynusT+iSAM
• Next two slides compare two network
scenarios with schedule adjustments allowed:
– HRS reduced average travel time
– Less schedule adjustments needed
– Overall very similar profiles
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 76
DynysT+iSAM on Base Network
DynusT+iSAM on HSR Network
Impact of DTA on Mode Choice
• Useful constrained exercise included
equilibration of the following 3 components:
– ABM mode choice only
– iSAM
– DTA
• It provides a pure impact of substitution of
static LOS skims with DTA trajectories:
– Trip list by all modes stays the same
– Mode switches can be analyzed at individual level
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 79
Iter. 1 (Trajectories) vs.
Iter. 0 (Skims)
1=SOV
2=HOV2-
driv
3=HOV3-
driv
4=HOV-
pass.
5=WT-
Local Bus.
6=KNR-
Local Bus.
7=PNR-
Local Bus.
8=WT-
Express
bus
9=KNR-
Express
bus
10=PNR-
Express
bus
14=Walk 15=Bike 16=Taxi
17=School
bus
1=SOV 3,093,373 7 4 2,672 4,255 524 644 283 108 311 5,306 398 2 - 14,514
2=HOV2-driv 6 794,805 - 546 452 144 119 41 20 41 796 50 - - 2,215
3=HOV3-driv 7 - 677,268 344 151 63 28 9 2 4 863 21 - - 1,492
4=HOV-pass. - - - 1,710,546 65 27 1 7 1 2 1,507 8 - - 1,618
5=WT-Local
Bus.
- - - 3 82,035 - - - - - 2 - - - 5
6=KNR-Local
Bus.
- - - - - 8,012 - - - - - - - - -
7=PNR-Local
Bus.
12 - 4 1 7 - 4,037 1 - 1 1 - - - 27
8=WT-Express
bus
- - - - - - 1 3,542 - - - - - - 1
9=KNR-
Express bus
- - - - - - - - 875 - - - - - -
10=PNR-
Express bus
- - - - 4 - - 1 - 1,189 - - - - 5
14=Walk - - - - - - - - - - 410,000 1 - - 1
15=Bike - - - - - - - - - - - 18,845 - - -
16=Taxi - - - - - - - - - - - - 33,956 - -
17=School bus 78 13 5 42 3 1 2 - - - 34 7 - 272,338 185
Gain 103 20 13 3,608 4,937 759 795 342 131 359 8,509 485 2 -
Loss
Mode 1
Mode 0
80ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Mode Gain and Loss by Switching from
Static Skims to Dynamic Trajectories
(20,000)
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
-
5,000
10,000
Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 1 vs. Iteration 0
Gain
Loss
81ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
% Mode Gain and Loss
(iter. 1 vs. iter. 0)
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
% Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 1 vs. Iteration 0
Gain
Loss
82ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Iter. 2 (Trajectories) vs Iter. 1
(Trajectories)
1=SOV
2=HOV2-
driv
3=HOV3-
driv
4=HOV-
pass.
5=WT-
Local Bus.
6=KNR-
Local Bus.
7=PNR-
Local Bus.
8=WT-
Express
bus
9=KNR-
Express
bus
10=PNR-
Express
bus
14=Walk 15=Bike 16=Taxi
17=School
bus
1=SOV 3,091,144 8 3 567 443 102 96 52 28 59 868 91 - 15 2,332
2=HOV2-driv 6 794,471 - 110 38 29 20 2 3 7 131 5 - 3 354
3=HOV3-driv 2 - 677,060 51 21 13 12 - - 2 114 6 - - 221
4=HOV-pass. 2,505 498 326 1,710,564 7 9 1 - 1 - 229 1 - 13 3,590
5=WT-Local
Bus.
4,070 425 146 30 82,289 - 7 - - 4 1 - - - 4,683
6=KNR-Local
Bus.
508 141 63 22 - 8,037 - - - - - - - - 734
7=PNR-Local
Bus.
610 112 26 2 1 - 4,080 1 - - - - - - 752
8=WT-Express
bus
273 40 9 2 - - 1 3,558 - 1 - - - - 326
9=KNR-
Express bus
97 17 2 1 - - - - 889 - - - - - 117
10=PNR-
Express bus
293 41 4 2 - - 1 2 - 1,205 - - - - 343
14=Walk 4,304 684 754 1,360 1 - - - - - 411,397 1 - 8 7,112
15=Bike 360 49 17 4 - - - - - - - 18,900 - - 430
16=Taxi 2 - - - - - - - - - - - 33,956 - 2
17=School bus 9 4 2 7 - - - - - - 5 2 - 272,309 29
Gain 13,039 2,019 1,352 2,158 511 153 138 57 32 73 1,348 106 - 39
LossMode 1
Mode 2
83ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Mode Gain and Loss
(Iter. 2 vs. Iter. 1)
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 2 vs. Iteration 1
Gain
Loss
84ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
% Mode Gain and Loss
(Iter 2. vs. Iter. 1)
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
% Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 2 vs. Iteration 1
Gain
Loss
85ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Iteration 0 vs Iteration 2
1=SOV
2=HOV2-
driv
3=HOV3-
driv
4=HOV-
pass.
5=WT-
Local Bus.
6=KNR-
Local Bus.
7=PNR-
Local Bus.
8=WT-
Express
bus
9=KNR-
Express
bus
10=PNR-
Express
bus
14=Walk 15=Bike 16=Taxi
17=School
bus
1=SOV 3,104,096 4 4 735 627 119 126 62 39 77 1,869 129 - - 3,791
2=HOV2-driv 1 796,472 - 159 64 32 27 3 6 7 243 6 - - 548
3=HOV3-driv 6 - 678,397 68 26 13 14 - - 2 224 10 - - 363
4=HOV-pass. - - - 1,711,720 44 13 - 5 1 - 376 5 - - 444
5=WT-Local
Bus.
- - - 3 82,035 - - - - - 2 - - - 5
6=KNR-Local
Bus.
- - - - - 8,012 - - - - - - - - -
7=PNR-Local
Bus.
8 - 4 1 1 - 4,049 - - - 1 - - - 15
8=WT-Express
bus
- - - - - - - 3,543 - - - - - - -
9=KNR-
Express bus
- - - - - - - - 875 - - - - - -
10=PNR-
Express bus
- - - - - - - 2 - 1,192 - - - - 2
14=Walk - - - - - - - - - - 409,999 2 - - 2
15=Bike - - - - - - - - - - - 18,845 - - -
16=Taxi - - - - - - - - - - - - 33,956 - -
17=School bus 72 14 7 36 3 1 2 - - - 31 9 - 272,348 175
Gain 87 18 15 1,002 765 178 169 72 46 86 2,746 161 - -
LossMode 0
Mode 2
Mode Gain and Loss
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 0 vs Iteration 2
Gain
Loss
% Gain and Loss
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
% Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 0 vs Iteration 2
Gain
Loss
Observations on Impact of DTA on
Mode Choice
• Overall a well-calibrated ABM does not suffer a stress
from switching to DTA
• No substantial recalibration needed
• Most shifts are from auto modes to transit and non-
motorized in the 1st iteration:
– More extreme congestion for certain auto trips compared
to static skims
• The opposite equilibration shift from transit and non-
motorized modes to auto in the 2nd iteration:
– Relative congestion relief in the second DTA application
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 89
Convergence
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 90
Convergence
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 91
Convergence
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 92
Observations on convergence
• Schedule consistency and stability are improved over
internal iterations and also between the global
iterations although each global iteration (ABM) starts
with a “stress” due to a new demand
• Stressed schedules are improved over internal
iterations but not between the iteration 0 and 1 where
the main change of LOS (trajectories vs. skims) occur
• More global iterations needed to analysis convergence
but it is time taking and was not ready by the webinar
time
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 93
DISSEMINATION OF PRODUCTS
Results, analysis, and performance of internal & external loops
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 94
Conclusions
• Deep integration of ABM and DTA is feasible:
– Already practical for regions under 1M
• Many additional new avenues:
– Moving towards AgBM
• Runtime is an issue:
– Integration layer adds only a little
– DTA and ABM constitute major time-consuming
components, especially DTA for large regions
95ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Two Ways How Products of this Project
Could be Used in Practice
Complete system transfer
• MPO will have to adopt and
provide all inputs for:
– CT-RAMP2
– DynusT
• Complete integration layer will
be transferred:
– iSAM
– ADIT
– Data exchange
• Given CT-RAMP2 and DynusT
are up and running:
– Possible in 3 months under
100K
Modular use of integration layer
• MPO can have different starting
components:
– Their own ABM, not necessarily CT-
RAMP
– Their Own DTA, not necessarily
DynusT
• Main integration layer
components are generic and
transferable:
– iSAM
– ADIT
• System integration and data
exchange between 4 components
will have to be implemented:
– Possible in 6 months under 300K
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 96
Coming Soon - Lima
• Ohio’s implementation was developed with
transferability in mind (Cleveland, Columbus,
Cincinnati/Dayton)
• A test model was made for Lima
– Mostly because it runs faster and hence is easier to
test and debug
• Lima will be made available (for free!) this fall
– Base implementation requires Cube and
DynusT/DynuStudio
– ABM can read TransCad and Emme files as well, but
requires a different interface/set-up
97ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
Strawberry Rhubarb Pie
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 98
Crust
1 stick butter (slightly softened), cut into
pats
135g flour (~1 cup)
1 tsp. sugar
½ tsp. salt
1.5 Tbsp. ice water
Put first 4 ingredients into the bowl of a
stand mixer. With the dough hook, run the
mixer on medium-low speed until the
butter is mostly cut into the flour. Add the
ice water and continue mixing until the
dough comes together into a ball. Wrap in
plastic wrap and refrigerate.
Filling
~2 c. chopped rhubarb
~2 c. sliced strawberries
Scoop and a half of sugar (~2/3 cup)
Medium scoop of flour (~1/3 cup)
Some vanilla (~1 tsp.)
5 pats of butter
Stir first 5 ingredients together, making sure
that everything gets coated in sugar/flour.
Roll out the dough disk in a generous
amount of flour and slide it into a pie pan.
Add filling. Dig butter pats into the filling.
Crumble the topping onto the top. Bake at
425 degrees for 15 minutes. Reduce heat
to 375 degrees and bake for another 30
minutes.
Topping
1 c. flour, 1 c. brown sugar, 1 Tbsp. cinnamon,
1 tsp. allspice or nutmeg, ½ c. melted butter
Mix dry ingredients well. Add melted butter
and mix with a spoon until it’s all moist.
Contacts
• Guy Rousseau
– GRousseau@atlantaregional.com
• Rebekah Straub Anderson
– rebekah.anderson@dot.ohio.gov
• Peter Vovsha
– Peter.Vovsha@wsp.com
• Robert Tung
– robert.tung@metropia.com
ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 99

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FHWA C10 DynusT+CT-RAMP Integration on ARC and MORPC

  • 1. C10 Projects CT-RAMP-DynusT Integration Analysis of results, model system performance, and readiness for practice 1ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 2. OVERVIEW OF 2 PROJECTS Commonality and differences between ARC and MORPC applications ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 2
  • 3. 2 Parallel applications Columbus, OH (MORPC) • 1.4M population • 2,000 TAZs • 18,000 MAZs • 10,000 links • CT-RAMP2 ABM • DynusT daily simulation of 6M vehicles Atlanta, GA (ARC) • 5.0M population • 5,873 TAZs • No MAZs currently • 50,000 links • CT-RAMP1 ABM • DynusT daily simulation of 20M vehicles ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 3
  • 4. Hardware Information • ARC: – RAM: 448GB of RAM – New computer will have 1TB – Processors: 3.2 GHz CPU, 48 physical cores • MORPC: – RAM: 256GB – Considering upgrading to 1TB – Processors: Dual 18 Intel Xeon E5 2699 2.3GHz 36 core processors • Model runs faster without hyper-threading (i.e. run only 36 threads) • WSP: – ARC runs: • 128 GB RAM • 2 x Intel® Xeon® CPU E5-2670 0 @ 2.60GHz – Each CPU with 8 physical, 16 virtual cores – MORPC runs: • 128 GB RAM • 2 x Intel® Xeon® CPU E5-2667 0 @ 2.90GHz – Each CPU with 6 physical, 12 virtual cores ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 4
  • 5. Highlights on ABMs • CT-RAMP1 (ARC): – Fully disaggregate micro-simulation of HHs & persons – Tour-level consistency but based on primary destination, stops inserted later – Intra-household interactions – Temporal resolution of 30 min (required post-processing for DTA) • CT-RAMP2 (MORPC): – Multi-destination tour formation and combinatorial mode choice – Continuous time (was designed to work with DTA seamlessly) ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 5
  • 6. Setting of Individual Schedule Adjustment Module (iSAM) • Mandatory activities (work and school): – High penalties for arriving late or departing early – Longer travel times are accommodated: • By departing from home earlier in outbound direction • By arriving back home later in inbound direction • Non-mandatory activities: – Relatively low penalties for arriving late or departing early – Substantial penalties for shortening duration – Longer travel times are accommodated: • In flexible ways depending on the tour structure • By stretching the active time window at the expense of in-home activities • Possible to explore scenarios with more flexibility for work – (Ohio is asking about schedule flexibility in the HTS) ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 6
  • 7. Current Performance ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 7 Model component MORPC ARC PopSyn (P) 2 hours (MAZs) 1 hour (TAZs) Core ABM iteration (A) 4 hours (multi-threaded) 6 hours (distributed) DynusT iteration (D) 30 min 3 hours Trajectory processing (T) 2 hours 6 hours Schedule adjustment (S) 10 min 30 min Targeted production run P+3A+3T+3×3S+3×3×5D 2+3×4+3×2+9×0.2+45×0.5 = 42 hours 1+3×6+3×6+9×0.5+45×3 = 177 hours Implemented full runs for this report for 1 scenario 3A+3T+3×3S+3×3×3D 3×4+3×2+9×0.2+27×0.5 = 34 hours Implemented internal loop for this report for 1 scenario 3S+40D 3×0.5+40×3=122 hours Comparable DTA run for this report w/fixed demand for 1 scenario 40D 40×3=120 hours
  • 8. DTA Runtime Sensitivity to Congestion • Different from ABM, DTA runtime per iteration is sensitive to network conditions: – Base scenario average ARC DynusT runtime per iteration: • Simulation: 100 min • Routing: 85 min – I-85 Bridge closure scenario average ARC DynusT runtime per iteration: • Simulation: 240 min • Routing: 100 min • Application of internal loop with schedule adjustment helped improve runtime: – I-85 Bridge closure DynusT runtime became close to Base ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 8
  • 9. CT-RAMP2 specifics • Common features of most ABMs in practice: – Tour as main unit of modeling (travel generation) – Micro-simulation of individual persons & HHs – Explicit intra-HH interactions – Enhanced spatial resolution (MAZ) • Unique features of CT-RAMP2: – Explicit activity generation followed by tour formation (long-term mobility pattern changes) – Continuous time and seamless integration with DTA – Consistency of individual patterns within time-space constraints (towards AgBM) 9ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 10. CT-RAMP2 blocks 1. Population synthesizer w/university sub-model 2. Long-term mandatory activity arrangements 3. Mid-term mobility attributes 4. Special events 5. Activity generation & tour formation 6. Tour TOD 7. Tour & trip mode choice 8. Within-tour time allocation and trip departure ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 10
  • 11. Cube Interface of MORPC ABM Demo for Lima ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 11
  • 12. Key Features of CT-RAMP2 Essential for Integration with DTA • High level of temporal resolution: – 15 min for tour schedules – Continuous for trip departure time • High level of spatial resolution for individual trip loading: – 2,000 TAZs broken into 18,000 MAZs • Seamless translation of person trips into vehicle trips: – Extended set of intra-household interactions and explicit modeling of joint travel – Identification of auto driver and passenger roles for joint trips • LOS manager that works with Accumulated Data Bank of Individual Trajectories (ADIT) instead of static skims ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 12
  • 13. DynusT Set Up & Network Information ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 13
  • 14. DynusT Set Up & Network Information • Cube network was saved to shape file and imported into DynusT • MORPC - Cube junction files were available for controlled intersections. These files were used to generate DynusT intersection files. • ARC – Synchro intersection files were used to generate DynusT intersection files. ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 14
  • 15. DynusT Set Up & Network Information ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 15 • Time dependent lanes can be set up as “work zones”
  • 16. DynusT Set Up & Network Information ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 16 • Can specify: – Start and end time by minute – Speed limit changes (if any) – Queue discharge rate (saturation flow rate) per lane – Capacity reduction rate (code max cap and reduce)
  • 17. Integration Layer Components • External Loop 1 w/mining individual trajectories LOS • Internal Loop 2 w/individual Schedule Adjustment Module (iSAM) 17 Microsimulation ABM (CT-RAMP) Microsimulation DTA (Dynus-T) List of individual vehicle trips & tours Individual trajectories for the current list of trips ISAM (Individual Schedule Adjustment Module): Consolidation of individual schedules (inner loop 2 for departure time corrections) Sample of alternative origins, destinations, and departure times Individual LOS estimates for potential trips List of individual person trips & tours by mode Transit microsimulation (Fixed LOS) List of individual transit trips & tours ADIT (Accumulated Database of Individual Trajectories): LOS Mining Integration Layer 2 Loop1Loop2 Travel “stress” evaluation measures Sample of households for re- modeling all choices Integration Layer 1 ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 18. Essence of Each Loop • External Loop 1: – Generates activity patterns & schedules – Uses individualized LOS through trajectory mining • Internal Loop 2: – Simulates activity patterns – Adjusts schedules for realistic trip chain loading – Uses individual trajectories – Evaluates “stress” measures 18ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 19. ARC SCENARIOS Results, analysis, and performance of internal loop ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 19
  • 20. 4 Scenarios • Base DynusT with fixed demand • Base DynusT+iSAM (schedule adjustment) • I-85 Bridge closure DynusT with fixed demand • I-85 Bridge closure DynusT+iSAM (schedule adjustment) ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 20
  • 21. Regional DTA Network Development • Mesoscopic is a Scale, DTA is a Method • Start DTA Network Development with: • a Commercially Available Street Centerline File (NAVTEQ) • www.openstreetmap.org is another option • Start with your Regional Travel Demand Model Network • Network Consolidation (Black Links were Merged)
  • 22. ARC Regional DTA Network with Signalized Intersections http://arcg.is/290ivBS
  • 23. NAVTEQ DTA Signalized Intersections NAVSTREETS - Green Additional - Red
  • 24. Atlanta Metro Signalized Intersections
  • 25. Atlanta Metro Ramp Meters in DTA Network
  • 26. Atlanta Metro Regional DTA Estimation & Calibration Traffic Flow Models GP HOV 26
  • 27. Coordinated Signals on Major Atlanta Corridors Synchro UTDF
  • 28. Atlanta RTOP Corridors (34) Regional Traffic Operation Program SR10D SR10G SR12 SR120 SR138E SR138S SR139 SR140G SR141N SR141S SR154A SR154D SR155N SR155S SR20 SR237 SR280 SR38E SR3NA SR3NC SR3S SR42 SR5 SR6 SR85 SR8A SR8CF SR8D SR8DF SR8G SR92&14 0R SR92C SR9N SR9S
  • 29. State Route - 42 South Bound INRIX vs. DTA Speeds
  • 30. Synchro Files & ABM-DTA Integration • Intersection Geometry (Left & Right Turn Lanes) • Traffic Signal Timing & NEMA Phasing • Green Times, Amber times, Offsets
  • 31. Overall Scenario Comparison Scenario Average trip time Average delay Unfinished trips Base DynusT w/fixed demand 25.81 min 2.90 min 0 Base DynusT w/iSAM 24.63 min 2.64 min 0 I-85 Bridge closure DynusT w/fixed demand 33.89 min 4.24 min 38,728 I-85 Bridge closure w/iSAM 30.99 min 3.73 min 26,151 ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 31
  • 32. Base DynusT w/Fixed Demand 32ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 33. Base DynusT w/Fixed Demand: Convergence 33ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 Inner Loop Iter Run type DynusT UE iters Upper limit vehicle departs Simulation horizon iSAM LP Failures Vehicles Still in the Network Relative Gap minutes clock First UE iter Final UE iter First UE iter Final UE iter N/A cold 30 1620 3:00 AM 2000 N/A 774404 0 0.8409773 0.1104254 N/A cold 40 1620 3:00 AM 2000 N/A 774404 0 0.8409773 0.117388
  • 34. Base DynusT+iSAM 34ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 35. Base DynusT+iSAM: Convergence 35ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 Inner Loop Iter Run type DynusT UE iters Upper limit vehicle departs Simulation horizon iSAM LP Failures Vehicles Still in the Network Relative Gap minutes clock First UE iter Final UE iter First UE iter Final UE iter 0 cold 15 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 774404 0 0.8409773 0.1438067 1 warm 15 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 0 0 0.1585612 0.1058591 2 warm 5 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 0 0 0.1155581 0.1099977 3 warm 5 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 0 0 0.1178765 0.1075283 iSAM improves DTA convergence as expected
  • 36. Base DynusT+iSAM: Adjustment of Departure Time to Work 36ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 37. I-85 Bridge Closure DynusT w/Fixed Demand 37ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 38. I-85 Bridge Closure DynusT w/Fixed Demand: Convergence 38ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 Inner Loop Iter Run type DynusT UE iters Upper limit vehicle departs Simulation horizon iSAM LP Failures Vehicles Still in the Network Relative Gap minutes clock First UE iter Final UE iter First UE iter Final UE iter NA cold 30 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 741658 41013 0.8399832 0.305708 NA cold 40 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 741658 38728 0.8399832 0.312108 Convergence w/fixed demand under critical network conditions is problematic
  • 39. I-85 Bridge Closure DynusT+iSAM 39ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 40. I-85 Bridge Closure DynusT+iSAM: Convergence 40ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 Inner Loop Iter Run type DynusT UE iters Upper limit vehicle departs Simulation horizon iSAM LP Failures Vehicles Still in the Network Relative Gap minutes clock First UE iter Final UE iter First UE iter Final UE iter 0 cold 15 1620 3:00 AM 2000 0 741658 37381 0.8399832 0.3215604 1 warm 15 1620 3:00 AM 2000 726 31360 25272 0.3594274 0.2693154 2 warm 5 1620 3:00 AM 2000 415 21806 26065 0.2974289 0.2903202 3 warm 5 1620 3:00 AM 2000 415 24161 26151 0.314918 0.2907585 iSAM improves DTA convergence as expected although more schedule relaxations needed
  • 41. I-85 Bridge Closure DynusT+iSAM: Adjustment of Departure Time to Work 41ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 42. Base DynusT vs. Base DynusT+iSAM: Research Questions • What schedule adjustments would be necessary? • How would schedule adjustments affect convergence? • How would schedule adjustments affect the network loading and other performance measures? • How would schedule adjustments affect validation against traffic counts? ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 42
  • 43. Traffic Counts (ADT) Correlation Analysis – Base DynusT with Fixed Demand ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 43
  • 44. Traffic Counts (ADT) Correlation Analysis – DynusT+iSAM ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 44
  • 45. ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 45 Base DynusT w/fixed demand Base DynusT w/iSAM •Minimal rescheduling needed for base •Convergence somewhat better with iSAM
  • 46. ARC Base Network Daily Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand 46ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 47. ARC Base Network Daily Volume Difference%: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand 47ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 48. ARC Base Network AM Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand 48ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 49. ARC Base Network AM Volume Difference%: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand 49ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 50. ARC Base Network PM Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand 50ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 51. ARC Base Network PM Volume Difference%: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand 51ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 52. Observations on Impact of Schedule Adjustments for Base Scenario • Overall minor differences in assigned volumes at daily level: – Some local impacts on certain facilities in congested corridors are stronger • Much more substantial impact in AM period: – Minor rescheduling allows for accommodation of more traffic in the most congested corridors • Less prominent effect in PM period: – Departure from work is largely fixed in current setting of iSAM – Rescheduling and spreading of non-work trips allowed for accommodation of somewhat more traffic in congested corridors ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 52
  • 53. Base DynusT vs. Bridge Closure DynusT: Research Questions • How would DTA with fixed demand perform under critical network conditions? • How realistic would be the results? • How substantial is the network redundancy in Atlanta to resolve the capacity drop by means of route choice only? ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 53
  • 54. ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 54 Base DynusT w/fixed demand I-85 Bridge closure DynusT w/fixed demand •Rescheduling of departure time is not allowed •Huge change in volume profiles with many vehicles stuck in the network •Probably unrealistic simulation of bridge closure
  • 55. Base DynusT+iSAM vs. Bridge Closure DynusT+iSAM • How would DTA with schedule adjustments perform under critical network conditions? • How realistic would be the results? • How substantial is the network redundancy in Atlanta to resolve the capacity drop by a combined effect of route choice and departure time choice? ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 55
  • 56. ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 56 Base DynusT+iSAM I-85 Bridge closure DynusT+iSAM •Substantial departure time shift observed •Substantial change in volume profiles but with fewer vehicles stuck in the network •More realistic simulation of bridge closure but may still need more schedule adjustments
  • 57. Bridge Closure DynusT vs. Bridge Closure DynusT+iSAM • How would schedule adjustments make user response to critical capacity drop more realistic? • How would schedule adjustments affect DTA convergence under critical conditions? ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 57
  • 58. ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 58 I-85 Bridge closure DynusT w/fixed demand I-85 Bridge closure DynusT+iSAM •Substantial departure time shift and peak spreading observed •Substantial change in volume profiles but with fewer vehicles stuck in the network •More realistic simulation of bridge closure but may still need more schedule adjustments
  • 59. ARC I-85 Bridge Closure Daily Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand 59ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 60. ARC I-85 Bridge Closure Daily Volume Difference%: iSAM vs.Fixed Demand 60ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 61. ARC I-85 Bridge Closure AM Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand 61ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 62. ARC I-85 Bridge Closure AM Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand 62ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 63. ARC I-85 Bridge Closure PM Volume Difference: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand 63ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 64. ARC I-85 Bridge Closure PM Volume Difference%: iSAM vs. Fixed Demand 64ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 65. Observations on Model Response to Bridge Closure • DTA with fixed demand creates an unrealistic pattern with infeasible levels of congestion: – Rerouting by itself is not enough due to limited network redundancy • Allowing for schedule adjustments makes simulation more realistic: – Many departure time shifts to earlier or later hours to avoid the highest congestions ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 65
  • 66. MORPC SCENARIOS Results, analysis, and performance of internal & external loops ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 66
  • 67. Important Research Questions when LOS Skims are Replaced with Individual Trajectories • Would the trajectories from several DTA iterations be enough to cover the need for LOS for ABM? • How good would be the match between the individual trips and trajectories? • Do we still need aggregate skims to fill the gaps? • How different are travel times from DTA compared to static assignment? • Would the ABM-DTA integrated model require a complete recalibration compared to standard ABM? ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 67
  • 68. Trajectory Coverage Stats 68 TOD Aggregation level 1 2 3 4 9 Total Before 6 83.0% 12.5% 0.2% 0.1% 4.2% 100.0% 6-10 61.3% 5.6% 19.5% 7.6% 5.9% 100.0% 10-15 93.4% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 100.0% 15-19 66.6% 5.9% 17.2% 6.2% 4.2% 100.0% After 19 92.0% 6.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 100.0% Total 77.7% 6.1% 9.6% 3.6% 3.0% 100.0% ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 1. MAZ to MAZ, 5 minute congested resolution 2. MAZ to MAZ, 15 minute congested resolution 3. TAZ to TAZ, 15 minute congested resolution 4. TAZ to TAZ, 60 minute congested resolution 9. Use TAZ to TAZ skim
  • 69. Travel Time Differences by aggLevel: Trajectory-Skim, min 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% aggLevel1 aggLevel2 aggLevel3 aggLevel4 69ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 70. Travel Time Differences by TOD: Trajectory-Skim, min 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% early am midday pm night 70ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 71. Example of Analysis of Time Budgets 71ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 72. IR-670 EB Hard Shoulder Running Lane 3:30PM – 6:30PM ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 72
  • 73. MORPC Diurnal Profiles: Base DynusT w/Fixed Demand ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 73
  • 74. MORPC Diurnal Profiles: IR-670 HSR Lane w/Fixed Demand ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 74
  • 75. Daily Volume Difference: HSR vs. Base w/Fixed Demand ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 75
  • 76. DynusT+iSAM • Next two slides compare two network scenarios with schedule adjustments allowed: – HRS reduced average travel time – Less schedule adjustments needed – Overall very similar profiles ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 76
  • 79. Impact of DTA on Mode Choice • Useful constrained exercise included equilibration of the following 3 components: – ABM mode choice only – iSAM – DTA • It provides a pure impact of substitution of static LOS skims with DTA trajectories: – Trip list by all modes stays the same – Mode switches can be analyzed at individual level ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 79
  • 80. Iter. 1 (Trajectories) vs. Iter. 0 (Skims) 1=SOV 2=HOV2- driv 3=HOV3- driv 4=HOV- pass. 5=WT- Local Bus. 6=KNR- Local Bus. 7=PNR- Local Bus. 8=WT- Express bus 9=KNR- Express bus 10=PNR- Express bus 14=Walk 15=Bike 16=Taxi 17=School bus 1=SOV 3,093,373 7 4 2,672 4,255 524 644 283 108 311 5,306 398 2 - 14,514 2=HOV2-driv 6 794,805 - 546 452 144 119 41 20 41 796 50 - - 2,215 3=HOV3-driv 7 - 677,268 344 151 63 28 9 2 4 863 21 - - 1,492 4=HOV-pass. - - - 1,710,546 65 27 1 7 1 2 1,507 8 - - 1,618 5=WT-Local Bus. - - - 3 82,035 - - - - - 2 - - - 5 6=KNR-Local Bus. - - - - - 8,012 - - - - - - - - - 7=PNR-Local Bus. 12 - 4 1 7 - 4,037 1 - 1 1 - - - 27 8=WT-Express bus - - - - - - 1 3,542 - - - - - - 1 9=KNR- Express bus - - - - - - - - 875 - - - - - - 10=PNR- Express bus - - - - 4 - - 1 - 1,189 - - - - 5 14=Walk - - - - - - - - - - 410,000 1 - - 1 15=Bike - - - - - - - - - - - 18,845 - - - 16=Taxi - - - - - - - - - - - - 33,956 - - 17=School bus 78 13 5 42 3 1 2 - - - 34 7 - 272,338 185 Gain 103 20 13 3,608 4,937 759 795 342 131 359 8,509 485 2 - Loss Mode 1 Mode 0 80ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 81. Mode Gain and Loss by Switching from Static Skims to Dynamic Trajectories (20,000) (15,000) (10,000) (5,000) - 5,000 10,000 Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 1 vs. Iteration 0 Gain Loss 81ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 82. % Mode Gain and Loss (iter. 1 vs. iter. 0) -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% % Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 1 vs. Iteration 0 Gain Loss 82ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 83. Iter. 2 (Trajectories) vs Iter. 1 (Trajectories) 1=SOV 2=HOV2- driv 3=HOV3- driv 4=HOV- pass. 5=WT- Local Bus. 6=KNR- Local Bus. 7=PNR- Local Bus. 8=WT- Express bus 9=KNR- Express bus 10=PNR- Express bus 14=Walk 15=Bike 16=Taxi 17=School bus 1=SOV 3,091,144 8 3 567 443 102 96 52 28 59 868 91 - 15 2,332 2=HOV2-driv 6 794,471 - 110 38 29 20 2 3 7 131 5 - 3 354 3=HOV3-driv 2 - 677,060 51 21 13 12 - - 2 114 6 - - 221 4=HOV-pass. 2,505 498 326 1,710,564 7 9 1 - 1 - 229 1 - 13 3,590 5=WT-Local Bus. 4,070 425 146 30 82,289 - 7 - - 4 1 - - - 4,683 6=KNR-Local Bus. 508 141 63 22 - 8,037 - - - - - - - - 734 7=PNR-Local Bus. 610 112 26 2 1 - 4,080 1 - - - - - - 752 8=WT-Express bus 273 40 9 2 - - 1 3,558 - 1 - - - - 326 9=KNR- Express bus 97 17 2 1 - - - - 889 - - - - - 117 10=PNR- Express bus 293 41 4 2 - - 1 2 - 1,205 - - - - 343 14=Walk 4,304 684 754 1,360 1 - - - - - 411,397 1 - 8 7,112 15=Bike 360 49 17 4 - - - - - - - 18,900 - - 430 16=Taxi 2 - - - - - - - - - - - 33,956 - 2 17=School bus 9 4 2 7 - - - - - - 5 2 - 272,309 29 Gain 13,039 2,019 1,352 2,158 511 153 138 57 32 73 1,348 106 - 39 LossMode 1 Mode 2 83ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 84. Mode Gain and Loss (Iter. 2 vs. Iter. 1) (15,000) (10,000) (5,000) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 2 vs. Iteration 1 Gain Loss 84ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 85. % Mode Gain and Loss (Iter 2. vs. Iter. 1) -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% % Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 2 vs. Iteration 1 Gain Loss 85ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 86. Iteration 0 vs Iteration 2 1=SOV 2=HOV2- driv 3=HOV3- driv 4=HOV- pass. 5=WT- Local Bus. 6=KNR- Local Bus. 7=PNR- Local Bus. 8=WT- Express bus 9=KNR- Express bus 10=PNR- Express bus 14=Walk 15=Bike 16=Taxi 17=School bus 1=SOV 3,104,096 4 4 735 627 119 126 62 39 77 1,869 129 - - 3,791 2=HOV2-driv 1 796,472 - 159 64 32 27 3 6 7 243 6 - - 548 3=HOV3-driv 6 - 678,397 68 26 13 14 - - 2 224 10 - - 363 4=HOV-pass. - - - 1,711,720 44 13 - 5 1 - 376 5 - - 444 5=WT-Local Bus. - - - 3 82,035 - - - - - 2 - - - 5 6=KNR-Local Bus. - - - - - 8,012 - - - - - - - - - 7=PNR-Local Bus. 8 - 4 1 1 - 4,049 - - - 1 - - - 15 8=WT-Express bus - - - - - - - 3,543 - - - - - - - 9=KNR- Express bus - - - - - - - - 875 - - - - - - 10=PNR- Express bus - - - - - - - 2 - 1,192 - - - - 2 14=Walk - - - - - - - - - - 409,999 2 - - 2 15=Bike - - - - - - - - - - - 18,845 - - - 16=Taxi - - - - - - - - - - - - 33,956 - - 17=School bus 72 14 7 36 3 1 2 - - - 31 9 - 272,348 175 Gain 87 18 15 1,002 765 178 169 72 46 86 2,746 161 - - LossMode 0 Mode 2
  • 87. Mode Gain and Loss (15,000) (10,000) (5,000) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 0 vs Iteration 2 Gain Loss
  • 88. % Gain and Loss -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% % Mode Gain & Loss: Iteration 0 vs Iteration 2 Gain Loss
  • 89. Observations on Impact of DTA on Mode Choice • Overall a well-calibrated ABM does not suffer a stress from switching to DTA • No substantial recalibration needed • Most shifts are from auto modes to transit and non- motorized in the 1st iteration: – More extreme congestion for certain auto trips compared to static skims • The opposite equilibration shift from transit and non- motorized modes to auto in the 2nd iteration: – Relative congestion relief in the second DTA application ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 89
  • 90. Convergence ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 90
  • 91. Convergence ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 91
  • 92. Convergence ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 92
  • 93. Observations on convergence • Schedule consistency and stability are improved over internal iterations and also between the global iterations although each global iteration (ABM) starts with a “stress” due to a new demand • Stressed schedules are improved over internal iterations but not between the iteration 0 and 1 where the main change of LOS (trajectories vs. skims) occur • More global iterations needed to analysis convergence but it is time taking and was not ready by the webinar time ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 93
  • 94. DISSEMINATION OF PRODUCTS Results, analysis, and performance of internal & external loops ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 94
  • 95. Conclusions • Deep integration of ABM and DTA is feasible: – Already practical for regions under 1M • Many additional new avenues: – Moving towards AgBM • Runtime is an issue: – Integration layer adds only a little – DTA and ABM constitute major time-consuming components, especially DTA for large regions 95ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 96. Two Ways How Products of this Project Could be Used in Practice Complete system transfer • MPO will have to adopt and provide all inputs for: – CT-RAMP2 – DynusT • Complete integration layer will be transferred: – iSAM – ADIT – Data exchange • Given CT-RAMP2 and DynusT are up and running: – Possible in 3 months under 100K Modular use of integration layer • MPO can have different starting components: – Their own ABM, not necessarily CT- RAMP – Their Own DTA, not necessarily DynusT • Main integration layer components are generic and transferable: – iSAM – ADIT • System integration and data exchange between 4 components will have to be implemented: – Possible in 6 months under 300K ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 96
  • 97. Coming Soon - Lima • Ohio’s implementation was developed with transferability in mind (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati/Dayton) • A test model was made for Lima – Mostly because it runs faster and hence is easier to test and debug • Lima will be made available (for free!) this fall – Base implementation requires Cube and DynusT/DynuStudio – ABM can read TransCad and Emme files as well, but requires a different interface/set-up 97ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017
  • 98. Strawberry Rhubarb Pie ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 98 Crust 1 stick butter (slightly softened), cut into pats 135g flour (~1 cup) 1 tsp. sugar ½ tsp. salt 1.5 Tbsp. ice water Put first 4 ingredients into the bowl of a stand mixer. With the dough hook, run the mixer on medium-low speed until the butter is mostly cut into the flour. Add the ice water and continue mixing until the dough comes together into a ball. Wrap in plastic wrap and refrigerate. Filling ~2 c. chopped rhubarb ~2 c. sliced strawberries Scoop and a half of sugar (~2/3 cup) Medium scoop of flour (~1/3 cup) Some vanilla (~1 tsp.) 5 pats of butter Stir first 5 ingredients together, making sure that everything gets coated in sugar/flour. Roll out the dough disk in a generous amount of flour and slide it into a pie pan. Add filling. Dig butter pats into the filling. Crumble the topping onto the top. Bake at 425 degrees for 15 minutes. Reduce heat to 375 degrees and bake for another 30 minutes. Topping 1 c. flour, 1 c. brown sugar, 1 Tbsp. cinnamon, 1 tsp. allspice or nutmeg, ½ c. melted butter Mix dry ingredients well. Add melted butter and mix with a spoon until it’s all moist.
  • 99. Contacts • Guy Rousseau – GRousseau@atlantaregional.com • Rebekah Straub Anderson – rebekah.anderson@dot.ohio.gov • Peter Vovsha – Peter.Vovsha@wsp.com • Robert Tung – robert.tung@metropia.com ABM/DTA integrated models in Ohio and Atlanta, June 7, 2017 99