Carbon matters print: global tipping points
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The document discusses the significance of carbon as a critical investment risk and highlights the concept of 'dragon kings' in energy, emphasizing the transition towards renewable sources and the risks associated with fossil fuels. It outlines the need for collaboration and innovation to navigate disruptive changes in energy markets over the next decade. The content reflects on the idea that impactful changes occur at the edges of systems rather than their cores.
Carbon matters print: global tipping points
- 1. Bangkok 28 April 2016 FNA Alan Laubsch Chief Community Builder alan@fna.fi CELEBRATING A DECADE OF IMPACTS CARBON MATTERS: GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS
- 2. Dragon King (Sornette 2009) Black Swan (Taleb 2001, 2007) vs. What causes crises? Now let’s find some dragons...
- 3. Three Energy “Dragon Kings” Renewables Divestment Carbon Price Stranded Assets
- 4. 4 June 24 2014 Energy Tipping Point Energy Phase Transition View Video
- 5. 5 24 June Risky Business Report
- 6. 6 Solar: Half way to 100%…
- 7. 7 Energy Disruption: No escape for fossil fuels
- 8. 8 Tesla vs Model T trajectory All interesting things happen at the edges of the system. They do not happen at the solid core. In the edges where things are uncertain is where the evolution happens. - Vinod Khosla
- 9. 9 Diffusion of Disruptive Innovation Source: Wikipedia; see Geoffrey Moore’s “Crossing the Chasm” (1999) Potential: Innovators imagine & build Visible: Early Adopters sense & respond
- 10. 10 Shared maps as mass collaboration platform: spark social intelligence South Pole & FNA Collaboration… our first map What should be on the map?
- 11. • Carbon has become a critical investment risk factor • Evolutionary leap: from ego to ecosystems (Scharmer) • Build collaboration platforms The next 10 years: buckle up penguins... 11 … let’s hunt some dragons together
- 12. FNA Alan Laubsch Chief Community Builder alan@fna.fi
Editor's Notes
- #4: There are three major disruptive Dragon Kings, as Didier Sornette calls them. These are characterized by small changes that amplify super-exponentially to become major forces that drive the world. Last year markets a tipping point in divestment with leading endowments, and ever more are signing up. Of course Hedge funds have seen this and many hopped aboard too. The growth in alternatives is important, especially solar. Oil is competing with technology that is getting exponentially better and cheaper. Solar is either at or will be at grid parity within the next couple of years, with costs continuing to decline. Improving Battery technology and EV has the potential to radically transform the landscape. And finally, there’s the pricing and limit of carbon, which has the potential to strand over 75% of the industry’s energy assets. Energy producers recognize this, and will therefore keep pumping as much as they can until those costs are actually imposed.
- #5: - Coal, Tar Sands, Shale, Deep Sea Exploration - Materials. Utilities? - Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, Canada - Junk bonds - EM bonds - Financials with Energy Exposure
- #10: Identify where we are in the business growth cycle (from macro to sector & firm level) Diffusion of ideas and innovation in societies follow exponential growth patterns also seen in epidemiology Monitor factors that change contagion rates and “tip” epidemics Malcolm Gladwell’s “Tipping Point”: Connectors, Mavens, Salespeople How is today’s financial fashion evolving? Monitor factors that change contagion rates and “tip” epidemics How is today’s financial fashion evolving?
- #12: We live in an increasingly complex and fast moving world. Predict and control no longer works. A more sensible approach is Sense and Respond. A mountain biking race would be a good analogy. Of course we do all the homework and map out the course, get GPS and weather forecasts. But what makes the real difference is executing on the course, sensing and responding to the changing conditions of the course. This is a paradigm we will take to stress testing.