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Access to Finance 
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Reports by CGAP and Its Partners 
No. 2, December 2011 
Latest Findings from Randomized 
Evaluations of Microfinance 
Jonathan Bauchet, Cristobal Marshall, Laura Starita, 
Jeanette Thomas, and Anna Yalouris 
1
© 2011 Consultative Group to Assist the Poor/The World Bank 
All rights reserved. 
Consultative Group to Assist the Poor 
1818 H Street, N.W. 
Washington, DC 20433 USA 
Internet: www.cgap.org 
Email: cgap@worldbank.org 
Telephone: +1 202 473 9594 
Acknowledgments 
Our thanks to the following people who reviewed and 
gave helpful input on this paper: Lasse Brune, Erica Field, 
Nathanael Goldberg, Dean Karlan, Asim Khwaja, Meng Lu, 
David McKenzie, Jonathan Morduch, Jonathan Robinson, 
and Dean Yang, and from CGAP’s publications committee 
Tilman Ehrbeck, Alexia Latortue, Kate McKee, and 
Richard Rosenberg.
1 
Latest Findings from Randomized 
Evaluations of Microfinance 
In 2009, the results from two microcredit impact 
studies in Hyderabad, India, and Manila, the 
Philippines were released to mixed responses 
(Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010; 
Karlan and Zinman 2011). Some media declared mi-crofinance 
a failure (Bennett 2009). Many in the 
microfinance community dismissed these random-ized 
studies as too limited to be a true reflection of 
the entire sector.1 
These first randomized studies caused a sensa-tion 
because they challenged the dominant impact 
narrative for microcredit—a narrative that rests on 
loans to capital-constrained microentrepreneurs 
who earn a steep return on marginal capital and 
thus can repay a relatively high interest rate and re-invest 
to grow out of poverty—and the way in which 
that narrative had been universalized in the popu-lar 
imagination. In fact, the results were more nu-anced. 
What the microcredit studies really showed 
is that this model of microcredit works for some 
populations—those who successfully grow busi-nesses— 
but not for others. 
Many now agree that the expectations for micro-credit 
in the popular discourse were overblown. 
For some, the pendulum had swung: far from a pan-acea 
against poverty, some argued that microcredit 
was actually doing harm. The evidence supports 
neither extreme view. In fact, the results of the 
studies aligned with and confirmed some of the evi-dence 
from nonrandomized methods already in the 
microfinance research literature that found modest 
but neither revolutionary nor deleterious impacts 
from credit. While the concept of capital that will 
allow poor people to unleash small business oppor-tunities 
remains valid for some poor clients, not ev-ery 
borrower is a microentrepreneur—take-up rates 
for credit products are often surprisingly low, and 
not all economic activities that poor people engage 
in yield high returns. Microcredit is not transform-ing 
informal markets and generating significantly 
higher incomes on average for enterprises. And yet 
the industry has focused almost exclusively on the 
rhetoric of entrepreneurship and has overlooked 
the many important benefits to households that are 
using loans to accelerate consumption, absorb 
shocks, or make household investments, such as in-vestments 
in durable goods, home improvements, 
or education for their children. 
Combined with other evidence, randomized 
evaluations are contributing to an emerging body of 
knowledge that is creating a new narrative around 
how financial services for the poor really work. As 
the results from new studies have been released, 
the discussion has evolved, and randomized evalua-tions 
are being used to examine when particular 
products and designs work, for what segments of 
people, and why. 
Today researchers are using randomized tech-niques 
to better understand the underlying finan-cial 
services needs of poor clients and what impacts 
are achieved when appropriate financial services 
are offered. Building on evidence from earlier non-randomized 
studies, researchers are increasingly 
able to work with microfinance providers to apply 
these techniques to product innovation and to 
tweak product design. In this way, randomized 
techniques can make a significant contribution to 
the field by clarifying our understanding of precise-ly 
how, and under what conditions, financial ser-vices 
benefit poor people.2 (See Box 1.) 
Poor households clearly have other financial 
needs that go beyond working capital loans to mi-croentrepreneurs. 
They use a variety of informal 
and semi-formal mechanisms to cope with risk, 
1. See, e.g., Helms (2010). 
2. Naturally, not all settings are appropriate for randomized eval-uations. 
This paper does not discuss such methodological 
issues in detail, but it does share findings from settings where 
randomized evaluations were feasible and illuminating.
2 
Box 1 
Frequently Asked Questions about Randomized Evaluations 
Why are randomized trials considered the most 
rigorous method of impact evaluation? 
In the case of evaluating a microfinance program, if we simply 
compare clients to nonclients we are comparing two differ-ent 
types of people: those who choose to borrow or save, 
and those who do not. The ones who choose to participate 
likely have different business acumen, tolerance for risk, and 
other characteristics, and studies have shown that they can 
be wealthier than nonclients—even before joining a microfi-nance 
program. By randomly assigning access to financial 
services, randomized trials ensure that the only difference, on 
average, between clients and nonclients is access to the 
program. Therefore any difference between the groups can 
be confidently attributed as the impact of the program. 
Can results from randomized trials be generalized? 
Randomized trials help to establish causality. But they do 
this only for the particular context of the evaluation (i.e., what 
we learn from Kenya may or may not apply to Vietnam). 
This is a limitation of all types of evaluation, however. Ran-domized 
trials are no more or less vulnerable than other 
seize opportunities, manage the risks and incon-veniences 
that come from having uneven cash 
flows, and smooth household consumption. They 
use credit or savings to pay school fees, they save 
to invest in businesses, and they use health and 
crop insurance, when available, to stave off risk. 
While these uses of financial services are differ-ent 
from the uses initially anticipated, they are 
still valuable, and the ability to manage finances 
is a fundamental part of everyday life for all peo-ple 
(Collins, Morduch, Rutherford, and Ruthven 
2009). The financial services needs of poor 
households may require different product fea-tures, 
and perhaps different payment and deliv-ery 
structures, but when such needs are met 
methods. 
An increasing number of credible studies, using both 
qualitative and quantitative techniques, are helping to build 
a body of knowledge about how financial services work. But 
it is not a specific number of studies that will allow researchers 
to assert a theory to make predictions about what happens in 
other places. The only way to generalize findings is to conduct 
a series of careful replications to evaluate similar approaches in 
different contexts until a clear pattern emerges. 
Why do researchers measure results after only one 
or two years? Microentrepreneurs need much more 
time to establish their businesses or build up savings, 
so we should perhaps not expect to see impact on 
poverty within such a short timeframe. 
This is a limitation of randomized evaluations, as well as some 
other evaluation techniques. Most randomized evaluations of 
microfinance programs measure results after two years or less, 
in part, because practitioners are typically reluctant to refrain 
from serving a control group for longer than a couple years. 
However, follow-up studies may be employed to estimate 
long-run effects, and where practical, researchers may go back 
and resurvey households after a longer period. 
Why are randomized trials so expensive? 
Randomized evaluations are not more expensive than other 
types of evaluations. The high cost from many impact evalua-tions 
comes from collecting data, such as household surveys, 
to measure household welfare, whether randomized or not. 
Note: For a short history of randomized evaluations, see http://www.povertyactionlab.org/methodology/when/when-did-randomized-evaluations-begin 
appropriately, the impact should nonetheless be 
welfare-enhancing. 
Recent evaluations are helping us understand 
when access to the appropriate product is welfare-enhancing, 
and when it is not. And the emerging 
body of evidence is both promising and highly prac-tical, 
allowing practitioners to think more creative-ly 
about options that will help their clients. While 
microcredit in the India study showed no discern-ible 
impact on measures of health, education, and 
female empowerment, it led to more businesses be-ing 
created and enabled poor households with busi-nesses 
to change their spending patterns. Further 
randomized evaluations of other products have 
been far more positive on welfare impacts. A study
3 
conducted in Kenya shows that access to savings 
accounts for female market vendors allows them to 
keep higher levels of inventory and therefore have 
higher incomes. Consumer credit was shown to 
have significant welfare benefits for wage earners 
in South Africa. A study conducted in Ghana pro-vides 
evidence that rainfall insurance helps farmers 
use more fertilizers and increase their cultivation 
area, and results in fewer meals missed for the fam-ily. 
(See Annex 1 for a summary of the research pa-pers 
discussed in this paper.) 
Perhaps one of the greatest contributions from 
these first randomized evaluations of microcredit 
will be to help reset expectations. Far from offering 
the last word on the impact of microfinance, the ex-isting 
evidence instead offers a foundation for 
learning what works, for whom, and under what 
circumstances so that products and delivery ap-proaches 
can be better used and adjusted to meet 
the needs of poor people. 
This paper summarizes the latest research find-ings 
from a new body of empirical evidence that 
uses randomized evaluations, similar to those used 
in medical trials, to compare how one group re-sponds 
to access to specific new financial services 
against how a comparable group fares without 
those services. (See Box 2.) This paper goes back a 
couple of years to the first studies that used this ap-proach, 
and summarizes a series of research studies 
presented at the October 2010 Microfinance Im-pact 
and Innovation Conference in New York. 
These studies evaluated product design for a range 
of financial services, including credit, savings, and 
insurance. The studies discussed here were under-taken 
by research affiliates of Innovations for Pov-erty 
Action (IPA), the Financial Access Initiative 
(FAI), and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action 
Lab (J-PAL) at the Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology; 
they are all randomized evaluations unless 
otherwise specified. 
Part 1 of this paper reviews the main results from 
randomized evaluations that measure the impact of 
microcredit and microsavings on business invest-ment 
and creation, consumption, and household 
well-being. Part 2 presents evidence from evalua-tions 
of products and delivery design. Part 3 dis-cusses 
the evidence on microinsurance products.
4 
Evaluating the Impacts of Microcredit 
and Microsavings3 
Many poor families in the developing world 
have limited access to formal financial 
services, including credit, savings, and in-surance. 
They instead rely on a variety of informal 
credit relationships with moneylenders, relatives, 
friends, or merchants. Poor people also use a num-ber 
of informal savings devices—for example, they 
may participate in rotating savings associations or 
keep their savings at home. These options are not 
ideal. They tend to be unreliable, and it can be hard 
to protect savers from the demands of relatives and 
friends.4 Traditionally, banks and other formal fi-nancial 
service providers, such as insurance compa-nies, 
have not considered the poor a viable market, 
and penetration rates for formal financial services 
in developing countries are extremely low.5 
Increasing access to financial services holds the 
promise to help reduce poverty and improve de-velopment 
outcomes, by enabling the poor to 
smooth consumption, start or expand a business, 
cope with risk, and increase or diversify house-hold 
income. Microcredit stands to benefit poor 
individuals who lack collateral, steady employ-ment, 
verifiable credit history, or other require-ments 
necessary to gain access to formal credit. In 
the past three decades, access to credit has ex-panded 
dramatically. Now with nearly 200 million 
borrowers, microcredit has been successful in 
bringing formal financial services to the poor.6 
Many believe it has done much more. By putting 
money into the hands of poor families, and partic-ularly 
poor women, they argue, microcredit has 
the potential to increase households’ health and 
education, empower women, and reduce poverty. 
What does the evidence say? 
Recent experimental evidence from three random-ized 
impact evaluations suggests that while increas-ing 
access to credit does not produce the kind of dra-matic 
transformations conjured in the popular 
imagination, with millions of poor people springing 
out of poverty simply by taking out loans and apply-ing 
them to their microbusinesses, it does appear 
to have some important—though more modest— 
outcomes for some people. These include creating 
new businesses and tipping consumption away from 
temptation goods, such as alcohol, tobacco, and 
snacks, so that households can invest in their busi-nesses 
or buy more durable goods. This suggests 
that microloans help some households reprioritize 
their expenditures and smooth consumption—a 
valuable function for poor households that suffer 
from irregular and unpredictable income streams. 
The results of these randomized evaluations find 
little, if any, evidence of impact on use of healthcare,7 
education, or female empowerment within the 
treatment period (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and 
Kinnan 2010; Karlan and Zinman 2009; Crépon, De-voto, 
Duflo, and Parienté 2011). The groups that ben-efited 
most from increased access to credit tended to 
be men with relatively high incomes, not those typi-cally 
targeted by microfinance institutions (MFIs) 
(i.e., poor female entrepreneurs). Significant welfare 
benefits were found in a study that extended con-sumer 
credit to wage earners who were considered 
marginally creditworthy because it enabled them to 
withstand shocks and keep their jobs. 
One evaluation of the impact of access to formal 
savings for businesses in Kenya found increased 
3. “Impacts” in this context refers to the effect that access to fi-nance 
has on the well-being of poor people, as indicated by 
business income, household income, household consumption, 
health, children’s schooling, and other measures. 
4. Collins, Morduch, Rutherford, and Ruthven (2009) show that 
poor people use a variety of informal mechanisms to manage 
cash flow, cope with risk, and seize opportunities. They also 
find that at almost every turn poor households are frustrated 
by the poor quality—particularly the low reliability—of the in-struments 
they use to manage their meager incomes. 
5. See CGAP and the World Bank (2010, p. 4). 
6. According to the Microcredit Summit, as of 31 December 2009, 
3,589 microcredit institutions reported reaching 190,135,080 
clients (Reed 2011, p. 5). 
7. Microcredit did help families deal with health shocks, but it 
did not lead to greater expenditure on healthcare or better 
health outcomes for children. 
Pa r t 1
5 
Randomized Approaches to Measuring Impacta 
To evaluate the impacts of microfinance, researchers use ran-domized 
techniques to assess how the lives of people in a 
program changed compared to how their lives would have 
changed if the program had not existed. Simply comparing 
clients with nonclients cannot account for the fact that those 
who sign up are likely to have both observable and nonob-servable 
characteristics that make them not comparable to 
nonclients. Randomized assignment, whereby one group or 
individual gains access to a particular service while another 
group or individual does not, allows researchers to compare 
two statistically equivalent groups. 
Existing evaluations follow one of two approaches: ran-domizing 
MFI branch placement in new areas, or randomiz-ing 
loan approval for marginally creditworthy applicants. 
Randomizing MFI branch placement 
The approach used by Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 
(2010) in urban India and Crépon, Devoto, Duflo, and Pariente 
(2011) in rural Morocco is to partner with an MFI and randomize 
the placement of new branches offering services. From a pool 
of areas identified by the MFI as being places where it would be 
a. For more on randomized evaluation methodologies, see Bauchet and Morduch (2010) and Duflo, Glennerster, and Kremer (2008). 
b. For a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of this approach, see Karlan and Zinman (2011). 
business investment and personal income growth 
among women, suggesting that savings could be an 
effective tool to help the poor accumulate funds for 
investment or consumption. 
Credit 
Impact of Grameen-style group lending 
in an urban setting 
Starting in 2005, Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and 
Kinnan (2010) conducted the first randomized im-pact 
evaluation of expanding access to credit in a 
new urban market. Researchers partnered with 
Spandana, one of the largest and fastest growing 
MFIs in India, to identify 104 slums in Hyderabad as 
places where Spandana would be interested in open-ing 
new branches. Fifty-two communities were ran-domly 
interested in opening a new branch, the MFI randomly selects 
some areas for opening new branches. Areas not selected for the 
opening of a new branch make up the comparison group. 
Randomizing access at the margin 
A second approach, used by Karlan and Zinman in South Africa 
(2010) and the Philippines (2011), is to randomize access to 
credit among clients that the lending institution has identified 
as being marginally creditworthy. Applicants for loans are sort-ed 
into groups based on a credit scoring mechanism that mea-sures 
business capacity, personal financial resources, outside 
financial resources, personal and business stability, and demo-graphic 
characteristics. Those with high scores are automati-cally 
approved, and those with low scores are automatically 
rejected. From the group that falls in the middle and is scored 
borderline creditworthy, applicants are randomly assigned a 
loan. This allows researchers to compare outcomes for groups 
who received a loan with those who were denied credit. It also 
provides the lending institution with a way to judge what differ-ence 
approving more risky loans might make to its business so 
that it can fine-tune its approval threshold.b 
selected for the opening of a new MFI branch 
offering loans to self-formed groups of six to ten 
women. The typical loan averaged Rs. 10,000 
(US$200), for families where the average monthly 
expenditure was Rs. 5,000 (US$100) for a family of 
five (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010). 
Twelve to 18 months after the introduction of an 
MFI branch, a comprehensive household survey was 
conducted in a random sample of eligible households 
in both treatment and comparison areas. Demand for 
the credit product was not high: take-up was 18.6 per-cent 
among households in the treatment group, 8.3 
percentage points higher than in comparison areas. 
People with access to microcredit were more 
likely to have started a business. The probability of 
starting a business increased by 1.7 percentage 
points relative to comparison areas, implying that 
approximately one in five of the additional MFI 
Box 2
6 
loans in treatment areas was associated with the 
opening of a new business. Beyond the impact on 
new business creation, there was no significant ef-fect 
on average business profits, monthly revenues, 
inputs spending, or number of employees. 
Access to credit did not change the amount house-holds 
spent significantly, but researchers did find a 
change in how households spent. Those with an ex-isting 
business bought more durable goods for their 
home and business. Households that did not start a 
business consumed more nondurable goods. But 
those who started a new business cut back on tempta-tion 
goods (tobacco, alcohol, tea, betel leaves, gam-bling, 
and food consumed outside the home) and in-vested 
more—tightening their belts to make the most 
of the new opportunity.8 This switch from temptation 
goods to investment and durable consumption in the 
groups with businesses is an encouraging finding. 
No evidence was found to suggest that micro-credit 
was empowering women, at least along mea-sured 
dimensions, such as exercising greater control 
over how the household spent its money. Research-ers 
also found no evidence of improved indicators 
for the use of healthcare services or education.9 
While media reports interpreted the lack of pos-itive 
results along measurable dimensions of health, 
women’s empowerment, and education as signs 
that microcredit was a failure,10 Banerjee and Duflo 
say this study presented clear evidence that micro-credit 
was working along the dimension it was sup-posed 
to. The new businesses created and the shift 
away from small “wasteful” expenditures implied 
that access to loans enabled households to make 
clear choices to reprioritize, invest, and make the 
most of the new opportunity: “The main objective 
of microfinance seemed to have been achieved. It 
was not miraculous, but it was working” (Banerjee 
and Duflo 2011, p. 171). 
Impact of Grameen-style group lending 
in a rural setting 
In 2006 and 2007, Crépon, Devoto, Duflo, and Pari-ente 
(2011) conducted the first randomized impact 
evaluation of microcredit in a rural setting. While 
there are some differences, the results show some 
notable parallels with the Spandana study. 
Al Amana, a Moroccan microcredit institution, 
opened 60 new branches serving 81 rural districts 
that had no previous access to formal financial ser-vices. 
Taking advantage of this expansion, research-ers 
selected two similar villages at the periphery of 
each district and offered group loans of 1,000 to 
15,000 DH (approximately US$124–1,855) to one 
randomly selected village, while the other village 
would be served two years later, after the outcomes 
of both groups had been compared. 
After two years, loan take-up was fairly low. Only 
16 percent of people borrowed from Al Amana, and 
many used loans to pay off existing debt. Similar to 
the results found by Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, 
and Kinnan (2010) in urban India, there was no in-crease 
in consumption and no noticeable welfare 
improvements. Researchers did not find any evi-dence 
that access to credit helped absorb income 
shocks. Fourteen percent of households experi-enced 
health shocks, while 25 percent experienced 
shocks to business,11 yet there was no evidence that 
consumption decreased less for people with access 
to microcredit, as we would expect to see if access 
to credit helped families cope with financial shocks 
(Crépon, Devoto, Duflo, and Parienté 2011, p. 16). 
Contrary to what was found in India, the number 
of new businesses did not increase in rural Morocco 
as a result of the loans, even though there was a lot of 
activity in the sample in terms of businesses starting 
and finishing. For individuals with existing farming 
activities, access to credit increased the volume of 
activity: more employees were hired from outside 
the household, and sales, expenses, and profits in-creased. 
In the case of livestock activities, most of 
the expansion can be explained by higher savings 
(livestock accumulation). There were some minor 
effects on sales but no effect on profits. Animal hus-bandry 
also increased, and loans were used to diver- 
8. Spending on temptation goods was reduced by Rs 9 per capi-ta 
per month (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010, 
p. 19). 
9. Households in treatment areas spent no more on medical and 
sanitation items (e.g., medicines, soap) than comparison house-holds, 
and among households with children, households in 
treatment areas were no less likely to report that a child had a 
major illness in the past year. There was no significant increase 
in levels of spending on school tuition, fees, and other educa-tion 
expenses or on school enrollment of teenage children (Ba-nerjee, 
Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010). 
10. See, e.g., Bennett (2009). 
11. Esther Duflo presentation at Microfinance Impact and Inno-vation 
Conference in New York, October 2010.
7 
sify the types of animals raised, increasing the asset 
value of the livestock. On the other hand, micro-credit 
had no effect on nonagricultural businesses. 
Those with an existing business at the start of the 
study reduced consumption (presumably as they ex-panded 
their business) and considerably increased 
savings. But for those without prior business activi-ties, 
consumption increased. These changes in con-sumption 
patterns are similar to those of the Hyder-abad 
study (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 
2010). The findings suggest that microcredit is an 
opportunity that different people will take advantage 
of in different ways—whether because of disposition 
or circumstances. More evidence could help us un-derstand 
the factors that affect a person’s ability to 
make good use of loans. 
Impact of individual microcredit loans in 
a peri-urban setting 
Karlan and Zinman (2011) published the first ran-domized 
impact study to evaluate access to individ-ual 
microcredit loans in the Philippines. Research-ers 
worked with First Macro Bank, a for-profit 
lender offering small, short-term, uncollateralized 
credit with fixed repayment schedules to microen-trepreneurs 
on the outskirts of Manila. While the 
study focused on microentrepreneurs, the average 
income and education level of these customers is 
somewhat higher than that of traditional micro-credit 
borrowers.12 The bank used credit-scoring 
software to rate applicants based on business capac-ity, 
personal financial resources, outside financial 
resources, and personal and business stability. Some 
applicants scored well above the bank’s base re-quirements 
and some scored well below, but there 
was a marginal group that just barely failed to meet 
the bank’s criteria for lending. For the study, a num-ber 
of the 1,601 sample of marginally creditworthy 
applicants were randomly approved for a loan of 
around 10,000 pesos (US$220), equivalent to 37 per-cent 
of the average borrower’s net monthly income 
(Karlan and Zinman 2011). 
Eleven to 22 months later, the researchers found 
that even though they borrowed more, those given 
access to credit did not increase investment in their 
business and they reduced their overall number of 
business activities and employees. Subjective well-being 
slightly declined. 
But access to credit helped borrowers cope with 
risk, strengthened community ties, and increased 
their access to informal credit. Karlan and Zinman 
(2011) conclude that microcredit may work, “but 
through channels different from those often hy-pothesized 
by its proponents … and that start with 
the household rather than with the business.” Ac-cess 
to credit lowered the demand for other kinds of 
risk mitigation tools, a similar result to a study Kar-lan 
and Zinman (2010) conducted in South Africa, 
where wage earners with access to consumer credit 
were more able to absorb shocks, and therefore 
more likely to keep their jobs. 
Impact of consumer credit 
Karlan and Zinman (2010) worked with a consum-er 
finance company in South Africa in designing an 
experiment to estimate the effects of expanding 
consumer credit to low-income workers in South 
Africa.13 The lender had operated for over 20 years 
as one of the largest, most profitable consumer 
lenders in South Africa, offering small loans at high 
interest rates, frequently to low-income workers 
who have no collateral and must make payments on 
a fixed schedule. Just over half of the sample of 787 
loan applicants who had narrowly failed to qualify 
under the normal underwriting criteria was offered 
standard loans of US$127 (equivalent to 40 percent 
of the median borrower’s gross monthly income) at 
a 200 percent annual percentage rate (APR).14 
The results were quite striking. Expanding ac-cess 
to credit increased borrower well-being. Six to 
12 months after taking out the loan, incomes were 
higher for applicants in the treatment group, and 
applicants in the treatment group were more likely 
to have kept their jobs than those in the comparison 
group. Twenty-six percent of treated households 
reported an improvement in food consumption. 
Subjective measures of decision-making within the 
household, community status, and overall optimism 
were also higher. In addition, the creation of a cred- 
12. Households in the study had incomes averaging 5,301 pesos/ it history increased the probability of future loan 
month/household member (US$106/month/person, or 
about US$3.50/day). The Manila borrowers were far above 
the official Philippines poverty line of about 1,000 pesos/ 
month/person, and well above the Hyderabad slum dwellers 
in the Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan (2010) study, 
who earned about $20/month/person. 
13. Income averaged about $300 a month. 
14. APR describes the interest rate for a whole year (annualized). 
In this case, effective APR is used (the fee plus compound in-terest 
rate calculated across a year).
8 
approval in the sample by 19 percent over a 15 to 27 
month horizon. All these outcomes were measured 
well after the loan had been taken out and repaid. 
Savings15 
To study the effects of savings constraints on the 
poor, Dupas and Robinson (2011) worked in collab-oration 
with the Bumala village bank in Kenya to 
randomly provide small business owners with ac-cess 
to savings accounts. 
The accounts offered no interest on deposits and 
included substantial withdrawal fees. There was 
nonetheless high demand for these costly savings 
strategies, which suggests that the available alter-natives 
were worse.16 
The potential savers were market vendors, bicy-cle 
taxi drivers, and self-employed artisans who did 
not already have a savings account, but were inter-ested 
in opening one. The researchers had them 
keep daily logbooks with detailed information on 
business investments, expenditures, and health 
shocks.17 From this information, Dupas and Robin-son 
were able to examine the impact of the savings 
accounts along a variety of dimensions. 
Data from the bank showed that many women 
used the accounts quite intensively. For example, 
25 percent of women saved more than 1,000 K Sh 
(US$14.28) in the accounts, a substantial amount 
given daily income of about $2 per day. Some 
women saved much more. These savings translat-ed 
into other positive outcomes. Four to six 
months after account opening, women in the 
treatment group had 45 percent higher daily in-vestment 
in their businesses than women in the 
comparison group. These findings suggest that 
women faced significant barriers to saving, and 
those constraints were important for the business-es 
they run. There was no measurable impact for 
men in the study. 
Several categories of expenditures were also 
higher for women in the treatment group. Food ex-penditures 
were 10–20 percent higher, suggesting 
that income had increased. Daily private expendi-tures 
were also 27–40 percent higher. This latter 
result also suggests higher income, though another 
possible explanation is that women were better 
able to shield their income from others, thus spend-ing 
a higher share of their income for themselves 
and their children. 
Savings accounts also seemed to make women 
somewhat less vulnerable to health shocks, which 
were particularly common in this sample. The log-books 
showed that women without savings ac-counts 
were forced to draw down their working 
capital in response to illness. In contrast, female 
savers did not have to reduce their business invest-ment 
levels when dealing with a health shock, and 
were better able to afford medical expenses for 
more serious illness episodes. 
The study suggests that the bank accounts of-fered 
were effective in increasing savings by over-coming 
pressure on market women to share their 
cash with others. Putting money into formal ac-counts 
seemed to reduce the risk of appropriation 
by relatives, friends, and neighbors.18 However, the 
sample size of this study was too small to be defini-tive, 
so future work will be needed to explore how 
robust this finding is. 
Despite the lack of evidence for positive effects 
on welfare from credit, the studies so far offer tanta-lizing 
evidence that there could be important poten-tial 
benefits for some poor households to be gained 
by helping the poor reprioritize their expenditures. 
Notably, the impact study for savings showed posi-tive 
outcomes for female savers. While it is still too 
early to reach any definitive conclusions, particu-larly 
for savings where there is just one existing im-pact 
study with a small sample size, the findings give 
researchers cause to explore further, and more stud-ies 
are underway to see if these findings hold up in 
other contexts. The next generation of studies is ex-amining 
product design to see how small changes 
can improve outcomes for poor clients. 
15. In Part 2 we consider the impact of savings accounts com-bined 
with commitment devices that address the issue of self-control 
among farmers. 
16. From the whole sample only 8 percent of respondents re-fused 
to open an account; 39 percent opened an account but 
never made a deposit. 
17. Dupas, Karlan, and Robinson are currently replicating this 
study in four different settings: Chile, Malawi, Uganda, and 
the Philippines. 
18. We use the term “formal” for consistency with the original 
research paper, but the savings accounts offered by Bumala 
village bank would often be called “semi-formal” since 
Bumala village bank is not regulated by the Central Bank of 
Kenya. It is affiliated with K-Rep bank and has private de-posit 
insurance.
9 
Evaluations of Product Features— 
Design Matters 
As the headlines and bloglines buzz with dis-cussion 
of whether or not microfinance—or 
more precisely, microcredit—works, several 
evaluations have started using randomized ap-proaches 
to explore specific questions around 
product design. What would be the impact of offer-ing 
flexible repayment options, of allowing for grace 
periods, or of replacing group liability with individ-ual 
loans? This ongoing work reveals that small de-tails 
matter, sometimes enormously. 
This section reviews a series of recent studies 
that isolate specific features or attributes of prod-ucts 
to show how even small changes in their de-sign 
can yield significantly different results. These 
studies offer insights for how financial service pro-viders 
can tweak or improve their products to ben-efit 
poor and low-income clients. We begin with 
some studies that have explored variations on tradi-tional 
microcredit products and, indeed, challenge 
some core tenets of the microcredit movement. We 
then discuss the latest evidence on the effect of 
commitment savings, reminders to save, and ac-count 
“labeling.” 
Microcredit Design— 
Disrupting Tradition 
Targeting women, group liability, and weekly re-payments 
that start immediately have long been 
considered defining attributes of a classic micro-credit 
model that is particularly strong throughout 
South Asia and in some other places. Some provid-ers 
see them as keys to success in keeping default 
rates close to zero. 
Especially in the early days of the modern micro-credit 
movement, each of these features was seen as 
key to reducing the risk for the provider of uncollat-eralized 
lending, allowing many MFIs to operate as 
sustainable, even profitable, businesses. Group liabil-ity 
ensures repayment by enlisting the benefits of 
Pa r t 
screening and peer monitoring. Women, it is be-lieved, 
pay back their loans more reliably than men 
(Armendariz and Morduch 2007). (Lending to wom-en 
also supports the social mission of many MFIs, 
since women are more likely than men to be poor, 
and income in the hands of women is more often 
spent to benefit the household and the children.)19 
And weekly repayment that begins right after the 
loan is given decreases credit risk by creating imme-diate 
discipline and a pattern of repayment. 
Simply put, the model works for MFIs. But does 
it work for borrowers? 
Increasing evidence suggests that some of these 
key design features may be far from optimal and 
may actually bring negative trade-offs. Some recent 
studies look in turn at group liability, the effects of 
lending to women, the importance of timing for en-suring 
repayment, and emerging tools for lenders to 
assess and monitor the credit worthiness of clients. 
Collectively, these results provide insight into im-portant 
product design options that may be used to 
improve financial outcomes for poor clients. 
Questioning group liability 
Group liability has been at the center of the peer 
pressure model, which assumes that borrowers will 
choose members they know to be reliable. Yet there 
are some very real disadvantages of group liability. 
If an emergency leads a group borrower to default, 
her social and community support system can un-ravel 
with it. 
Beginning in 2004, Giné and Karlan (2011) ran a 
study with Green Bank in rural areas of the Philip-pines 
to explore whether group liability was in fact 
necessary for managing default risk. The study ex-amined 
what happened when the bank switched its 
existing group liability model to an individual liabil-ity 
model, as well as when groups of new borrowers 
started out with individual liability loans. 
19. See Thomas (1990), Engle (1993), and Schultz (1990). 
2
10 
The results showed that the shift to individual 
liability did not negatively affect loan repayment for 
either group. The bank also saw an increase in out-reach, 
as more customers, attracted by the individ-ual 
liability option, sought loans from the bank. The 
study was extended to new areas, in which groups 
either formed initially as individuals or as groups. 
Here, too, no difference in repayment was observed, 
although the credit officers were more reluctant to 
open up lending groups without individual liability. 
Given how such results likely rely heavily on cul-tural 
context and institutional incentives, these re-sults 
should not be extrapolated without caution, 
but they do provide cause for challenging the pre-sumption 
that group liability is a key to successfully 
lending to poor people. 
Strengthening the case against group liability for 
MFIs is the continued low demand for formal mi-crocredit. 
As mentioned in the microcredit impact 
studies described earlier, poor people are not 
pounding down the doors of microlenders,20 de-spite 
widespread, documented use among the poor 
of informal loans from friends, neighbors, or mon-eylenders. 
21 One possible reason why so few poor 
people take out formal loans is that the group liabil-ity 
model repels risk-adverse individuals who are 
not willing to co-sign for their peers.22 
Women, men, and returns to capital 
MFIs’ focus on lending to women is partly a conse-quence 
of commercial interest, given women’s 
higher loan repayment rates. Development re-search 
also suggests that women tend to put more 
of their earnings back into the home or into services 
for their children (health, education, etc.) than men 
do.23 Serving women, therefore, is good for business 
and good for fulfilling a social mission. 
As mentioned, the vast majority of microcredit 
programs nominally extend loans for the purpose of 
starting or running a business. Business loans are 
seen as addressing a critical need, since formal-sector 
jobs are scarce in poor communities and 
poor, unemployed women often do not have the 
necessary capital available all at once to invest in in-ventory 
or equipment to start a business or make 
necessary investments for growth. Giving women 
credit, cash, or business inputs theoretically re-lieves 
capital constraints and helps them take busi-ness 
opportunities. 
In practice, however, access to capital does not 
seem to be having as large an effect on increasing 
women’s incomes as development experts had 
thought. The three microcredit impact studies con-ducted 
in India, the Philippines, and Morocco 
showed that increasing the availability of credit had 
no impact on the profits of women-owned busi-nesses 
(Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 
2010; Karlan and Zinman 2011; Crépon, Devoto, 
Duflo, and Parienté 2011). 
A 2008 study by de Mel, McKenzie, and Woodruff 
on returns to capital for businesses in Sri Lanka 
found that the average real return to capital was 5.7 
percent per month—substantially higher than the 
market interest rate—and the returns varied with 
measures of ability, household liquidity, and the gen-der 
of the owner. In a follow-up study (2009) the 
researchers show that women-owned businesses 
earned no returns from either cash or in-kind grants, 
compared to men in the study who earned high re-turns 
from both. These results could have been en-tirely 
explained by environment, however, given 
that only 35 percent of women participate in the 
work force in Sri Lanka and may choose low-return 
sectors for their businesses (World Bank n.d.). 
To test whether the results held in an environ-ment 
with higher female participation, McKenzie 
and Woodruff partnered with Fafchamps and 
Quinn from the University of Oxford to study fe-male 
and male entrepreneurs in Ghana, a country in 
which 74 percent of women participate in the 
workforce (World Bank n.d.). In Ghana, the re-searchers 
gave either cash grants or grants of in-kind 
inventory or equipment to different male and 
female entrepreneurs, to see whether cash had a 
different effect than in-kind capital, and whether 
20. Loan take-up from MFIs was only 16 percent in rural Mo-rocco 
(Crépon, Devoto, Duflo, and Parienté 2011) and 18.6 
percent in urban India (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and 
Kinnan 2010). 
21. See Collins, Morduch, Rutherford, and Ruthven (2009). 
22. Context may make a big difference to the effects of the group 
lending approach, and not all of the literature points in the 
same direction. For example, a World Bank study (Carpela, 
Cole, Shapiro, and Zia 2010) exploits a natural experiment 
and shows benefits of group lending. 
23. See, e.g., Engle (1991).
11 
women responded differently than men.24 They 
did, on both counts. 
Cash grants to female entrepreneurs in Ghana 
produced no return on capital, just as in Sri Lanka. 
Yet in Ghana, the in-kind gifts of inventory or 
equipment showed a significant average return for 
women. The researchers found that when given 
cash, women invested less of the gift in the busi-ness, 
splitting pieces off for household purchases 
or other expenses. They also found an important 
nuance: the high returns from in-kind gifts came 
entirely from the women who had larger, higher 
profit businesses at the outset. Women with below-average 
profits (around $1 a day) saw no benefit in 
terms of profit from either form of grant. Male 
business owners, on the other hand, saw significant 
returns to capital from both the in-kind grants and 
the cash grants. 
These findings from Ghana are certainly more 
encouraging for female microentrepreneurs than 
the earlier findings from Sri Lanka. But even in 
Ghana, it was only the larger female-owned busi-nesses 
that benefited in terms of profit. Women 
from the general population are not always, nor, in-deed, 
more likely to be, able to convert capital into 
profits, and men tend to be more successful overall. 
These results suggest opportunities to adjust to 
whom MFIs lend and how they structure their 
products. MFIs may have a greater impact on the 
women they serve if they can filter their applicant 
pool to identify and target high performers. It is rel-evant 
not only for knowing which clients can excel, 
but also for the MFIs’ ability to offer more flexible 
products. Knowing what the client is likely to earn 
can allow lenders to adjust the risk profile—and the 
interest rate. It even may allow institutions to add 
microequity to their product portfolio, assuming 
they can find effective ways to accurately monitor 
business performance. It may also be time for mi-crofinance 
providers to redesign their loan prod-ucts 
to acknowledge what many already know— 
that loans are often used for nonbusiness purposes.25 
The role of timing—delaying repayment 
Growing a business, no matter the size, often re-quires 
entrepreneurs to make investments and then 
wait for those investments to mature. Yet the inflex-ible 
nature of the typical microcredit programs, in-volving 
weekly, or monthly, repayments that begin 
the first week or month after the loan is given, may 
not provide the necessary time for investments to 
show a yield. Many loan recipients, in fact, set aside 
part of the loan from the beginning to ensure they 
can make the first two or more payments. So clients 
are not investing the full bulk of the funds, and they 
may be avoiding investments that require a longer 
period to yield returns. 
When Field, Pande, Papp, and Rigol (2011) 
looked at small business loan design in the United 
States, they saw that business loans build in a grace 
period of a few months between when the funds are 
given and when the borrower has to begin paying 
the loan back. Between 13 percent and 15 percent of 
U.S. business borrowers default, compared to be-tween 
2 percent and 5 percent of microcredit bor-rowers 
in developing countries, a significant in-crease 
in default risk for the lender. Yet the key 
question—does increased repayment flexibility cor-relate 
with increased profit and still allow the lend-er 
to manage default risks adequately—is important 
enough from the development perspective to war-rant 
examination. 
In West Bengal, India, the researchers (2011) 
compared the outcomes of two groups of micro-credit 
borrowers with the Village Welfare Society. 
One group received a traditional group microcredit 
product with semi-weekly payments that started 
immediately after receipt of the loan, and the sec-ond 
group was awarded a two-month grace period 
before repayment began. 
24. Fafchamps, McKenzie, Quinn, and Woodruff (2011) offer 
grants instead of loans because many banks require that their 
clients already be business owners or have an idea for a start-up 
that the banks deem worthy; likewise, entrepreneurs who 
take loans may be more willing to take risks. Both factors po-tentially 
create a study population that is more savvy or more 
likely to be successful than the average population, so they 
work with existing entrepreneurs and provide them with 
grants as a technique for preventing bias. 
25. As noted, in practice poor clients are not only using loans to 
invest in businesses, but also as a means to manage their 
household cash flow, for emergencies, and to smooth con-sumption. 
While theory of impact is quite different, the use 
of microcredit or savings for consumption smoothing may 
nonetheless be important for the overall well-being of 
clients.
12 
The grace period group members invested 6 per-cent 
more of their loans in their businesses than 
borrowers who received no grace period, and two 
years after the loans were given, those grace period 
borrowers saw 30 percent higher average profits. 
Household income was also higher on average for 
the grace period borrowers. 
However, the average result masks significant 
variation within the grace period group. The 25 
percent average profit increase came about because 
some of the women did extremely well with the de-layed 
payment loans. Unfortunately, big wins for 
some were matched by big losses for others—9 per-cent 
of the individuals in the grace period group ul-timately 
defaulted on their loans, compared with a 
2 percent default rate among individuals with the 
standard weekly repayment structure. 
In 2008, the Village Welfare Society participated 
in a study measuring the effects of weekly versus 
monthly meetings on loan repayment (conducted 
by Feigenberg with Field and Pande). When the re-searchers 
found that the monthly meetings did 
not affect repayment, the bank switched to month-ly 
meetings, as the operational savings were sub-stantial. 
These results again suggest significant opportu-nities 
for both high-functioning borrowers and the 
institutions that serve them. Banks could commer-cialize 
business loans with a two-month grace pe-riod 
for all borrowers who want it by increasing the 
interest rate on those loans sufficiently to make up 
the losses from default. It is not clear how much 
such high rates would affect demand. 
Another, more nuanced, approach is to identify 
who the high-potential borrowers are before set-ting 
product terms. Such individualized service of-fers 
the possibility of creating a targeted product— 
whether loan or microequity—built around that 
person’s potential earnings, and tailoring loan 
amount, term, and price accordingly. 
The role of the borrower—client screening 
as a product design tool 
Financial service providers would be well-served 
by any technique or tool that would allow them to 
predict in advance who the high performers might 
be. Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan (2010) 
delved into their microcredit impact data from Hy-derabad 
to identify some shared characteristics 
among those individuals in their sample who were 
more likely to start a business, but they have not 
tested whether that information predicts successful 
use of a loan when used as a selection tool. 
Creating that selection tool is a high priority for 
Khwaja, of Harvard’s Kennedy School. Khwaja’s 
work focuses on the developing world’s small 
firms—enterprises that have outgrown microcredit, 
but that still lack the collateral and the size to easily 
secure financing from a mainstream bank. These 
businesses typically find it very difficult to grow 
past the micro level for lack of investment capital. 
This absence of small, formal firms is known as 
the “missing middle,” and it is a problem, not only for 
the high-potential poor who have the ability to grow 
but lack the necessary capital, but also for poor en-trepreneurs 
who have trouble increasing their in-come 
from self-employment. High-potential micro-entrepreneurs 
need financing, and the banks that 
fund them need an inexpensive and reliable way to 
sift through a pool of candidates and pull out those 
with the highest potential for success. 
The challenge is not insignificant. The banks and 
venture capital firms that typically provide business 
financing screen ideas for their business value and 
the entrepreneur’s ability to pay back by delving 
into credit or business histories or conducting an 
in-depth evaluation of the business idea. These op-tions 
are not viable with microfirms, however, be-cause 
of their small size and smaller predicted re-turns. 
For small firms, banks really need to know 
about the ideas, skills, and trustworthiness of the 
individual borrower. 
Khwaja focused on the potential of automated 
psychographic evaluation tools for measuring an 
entrepreneur’s ability and honesty. The psycho-graphic 
test is based on tools used by human re-source 
departments in developed countries. These 
tests are prevalent in other contexts, they are diffi-cult 
to game, and the results tend to correlate with 
entrepreneurial success. 
To test their appropriateness for funding high-potential 
microbusinesses, Khwaja has conducted a 
number of tests around the world to see if the psy-chographic 
tools work to identify high potential en-trepreneurs 
with good ideas, strong business ability, 
and honest character. Khwaja and his colleagues
13 
developed a 30–40 minute computerized psycho-graphic 
test to measure the test taker’s intelligence; 
implicit, practical business skills; and psychology or 
character (Is he honest? How does she view the 
world, etc.?). To date, more than 2,000 entrepre-neurs 
in seven countries have taken the test. They 
have had different levels of experience, and they 
have sought loans of varying sizes (from $2,000 to 
$150,000). Khwaja’s pilot data show that the test 
meets or exceeds the predictive ability of credit 
scoring models used in developed countries, and it 
effectively predicts financial success for micro or 
small business entrepreneurs who do not have fi-nancial 
histories. 
The test is also uncovering some nonintuitive in-dicators 
of business failure. For example, test takers 
who scored higher for intelligence actually achieve 
lower profits; honesty also correlates with lower 
than average profits—in both cases, these effects 
were stronger for women than men. The indicators 
of success seem more obvious. Individuals with 
strong drive do much better, and those with busi-ness 
skills do moderately better than the average. 
Making the borrower do the work 
Khwaja’s approach puts the onus on the lender to 
extract and evaluate that information and use it to 
make a lending decision. Giné, Goldberg, and Yang 
take a different approach. 
Giné, Goldberg, and Yang (2011) evaluated the 
impact of improving the lending institution’s abil-ity 
to withhold credit from past defaulters and re-ward 
good borrowers with expanded credit on 
borrower behavior. Their study focuses on paprika 
farmers in rural Malawi, where group liability and 
frequent repayments are impractical, since crop 
failure usually affects everyone in a region, and 
farm income from this cash crop arrives all at 
once. Likewise, there is no central identification 
system in Malawi, so borrowers who default have 
little problem accessing future loans, either by us-ing 
a different name or seeking financing some-where 
else. Together, these factors make it diffi-cult 
for the lender to use loan access as an incentive 
to encourage repayment—the customer knows de-fault 
will likely have little consequence. 
The researchers sought to improve the lender’s 
ability to identify borrowers through the use of bio-metric 
identifiers. Applicants in the study answered 
questions about their business, their past borrow-ing 
experiences, and their households, and they 
were given a presentation on the importance of 
maintaining a clean credit history to ensure future 
access to credit. Some of the borrowers then had 
their thumbprint recorded and were given a further 
demonstration of how the print would be used to 
identify them in the future. 
Data collected at the beginning of the study were 
used to identify borrowers predicted to be high-risk, 
based on their probability of business success 
and likelihood of repayment. As a result of the fin-gerprinting 
intervention, borrowers predicted to be 
least likely to repay showed a significant change in 
behavior. Fingerprinted borrowers in this group 
took smaller loans when they knew they could be 
identified and were more likely to repay their loans 
on time as well as eventually, compared to equiva-lent 
borrowers in the comparison group. 
Fingerprinted borrowers in the high-risk group 
also allocated more of their land to the production of 
paprika (the crop that the in-kind loan was intended 
to finance) and invested more inputs, such as fertil-izer, 
in the paprika crop. In addition to improving the 
repayment performance of high-risk borrowers, be-ing 
in the fingerprinting system may have further 
benefits for well-performing borrowers if their good 
credit histories can be stored and used to access bet-ter 
borrowing conditions from other institutions. 
Savings Design 
As early as 1999, Rutherford showed that poor peo-ple 
are active money managers: they look for ways 
to “save up” (to create a usefully large sum of money 
by storing it somewhere) or to “save down” (taking 
a loan and repaying it later out of future savings). 
Given that the poor do save, why don’t they use 
those savings to finance business investments? 
Experts agree it might be hard for poor individ-uals 
with variable income to get together enough 
money to start a business, but running a business 
theoretically should not require further outside 
funding, given that many microenterprises earn 
high returns. Ananth, Karlan, and Mullainathan 
(2007) conducted a survey that showed it would
14 
not take much for vegetable market sellers in In-dia— 
who usually finance the purchase of daily in-ventory 
with loans from the moneylender—to save 
a very small amount from the business every day, 
equivalent to the amount needed to buy a cup of 
tea. Within 28 days, those market sellers would 
have saved the same amount that they borrow ev-ery 
day. At this point, they would no longer need 
cash from the moneylender and could instead use 
savings for inventory purchases, thus saving even 
more because they don’t have to pay the money-lender’s 
high interest rates (Ananth, Karlan, and 
Mullainathan 2007). Yet the vegetable vendors do 
not do it. Ananth, Karlan, and Mullainathan tried a 
number of different techniques to nudge the mar-ket 
sellers to use savings for their businesses. For 
instance, they tried giving vendors a “top up” grant 
that restored savings after an emergency. They also 
offered “financial literacy” training that taught the 
vendors about the compounding effects of in-creased 
savings and decreased interest rate pay-ments, 
under the theory that the vendors did not 
fully understand how much the moneylender was 
costing them. Yet nothing seemed to change the 
typical practice of frequent borrowing from the 
moneylender. 
Psychology offers a number of theories for why 
people do not save enough for productive invest-ments, 
despite having the apparent means to do so. 
One theory suggests that some individuals simply 
value the present more, and therefore prefer spend-ing 
available funds immediately rather than saving 
them. The future is unknown, so they don’t see 
much use in considering it. Another possibility is 
that people want to save, but self-control issues 
make it difficult for them to resist the temptation to 
use extra cash today rather than save it for tomor-row. 
Limited attention can also explain the lack of 
savings as people fail to foresee the need for cash in 
the future. Last, there is the reality that not-quite-as-poor 
individuals may receive a lot of pressure from 
friends and family members to share any (relative) 
windfalls or help on a day-to-day basis pay for re-curring 
or emergency expenses, which eat away at 
savings. Innovations in savings product design 
therefore aim to help savers overcome one or more 
of these challenges. 
Commitment savings 
Commitment savings accounts are one of the prime 
innovations that have come out of recent efforts to 
help poor people save. Commitment savings ac-counts 
require the saver to deposit a certain amount 
of money in a bank account and relinquish access to 
the cash for a period of time—usually until a certain 
date or until a certain dollar amount has accumulat-ed. 
Such lack of access is valuable as a way of protect-ing 
the cash both from the impulses of the savers 
themselves, and from the hands of family and neigh-bors. 
Ashraf, Karlan, and Yin (2006) conducted a 
study on commitment savings accounts in the Philip-pines 
that show they are effective at increasing sav-ings, 
especially for people with self-control issues. 
More recent studies have examined how a com-mitment 
savings product helps farmers to adopt the 
use of fertilizer and invest more in their crops. As 
shown in randomized evaluations, farmers can earn 
much stronger yields from their crops when they 
take small steps, such as using fertilizer at specific 
points during the growing season. Duflo, Kremer, 
and Robinson (2008) show that, among maize farm-ers 
in western Kenya, the annualized return to ½ 
teaspoon of fertilizer at top dressing (when the maize 
plant is knee high) was almost 70 percent per year. 
Despite this evidence, few farmers consistently 
use fertilizer, largely because they earn all their in-come 
for the year at harvest and do not have suffi-cient 
funds left over to buy it at planting. In a fol-low- 
up study, Duflo, Kremer, and Robinson (2010) 
show how a simple commitment product can in-crease 
fertilizer use. A field officer visited farmers 
immediately after harvest and offered them an 
opportunity to buy a voucher for fertilizer, at the 
regular price, but with free delivery. The results 
showed that free delivery early in the season in-creases 
fertilizer use by 47–70 percent. 
To benchmark this effect, a second treatment 
group was made the same offer of free delivery later 
in the season, while a third was offered a 50 percent 
subsidy later in the season. If farmers are complete-ly 
rational, then the effect of free delivery later in 
the season should be the same as earlier, and the ef-fect 
of the subsidy should be greater. However, the 
effect of the commitment device was greater than 
offering free delivery, even with a 50 percent subsi-dy 
on fertilizer, later in the season.
15 
Based on that knowledge, Brune, Giné, Goldberg, 
and Yang (2011) estimated the impacts of facilitat-ing 
access to a savings account coupled with a com-mitment 
device as a mechanism to encourage sav-ings 
among cash crop farmers in Malawi. The 
evaluation allowed farmers to put funds into a spe-cial 
account where withdrawals were restricted for 
defined periods. The idea was to help farmers to 
buy inputs by better dealing with self-control prob-lems 
and cash demands from their social network. 
In the study, farmers in the treatment group were 
randomly assigned to receive assistance in either 
opening an ordinary savings account or opening an 
ordinary account with a commitment device. 
The results of the evaluation showed the com-mitment 
treatment had a large positive effect on the 
amounts of deposits and withdrawals made imme-diately 
before the planting season. On average, the 
net effect on deposits (savings balance) was positive 
although not statistically significant. Along with in-creasing 
savings previous to the planting seasons, 
the commitment device also had positive effects in 
terms of a number of outcomes of interest. Farmers 
in this treatment group had a 26 percent increase in 
agricultural input use, 22 percent increase in value 
of crop output in subsequent harvest, and 17 per-cent 
increase in household total expenditure re-ported 
in the past 30 days. Farmers who had access 
to only the ordinary account showed lower or non-significant 
impacts in terms of those same out-comes, 
suggesting the commitment device played 
an important role for these results. 
Commitment savings accounts seem to help this 
community of farmers less by increasing their self-control 
than by shielding funds from an individual’s 
social network (for better or worse).26 The study 
data show that actual amounts saved in the ac-counts 
were very low, ruling out that it helped indi-viduals 
with self-control problems by restricting 
their options to spend. Additionally, study partici-pants 
who were identified as having self-control 
problems experienced no different effects from the 
commitment savings than their peers. Instead, the 
commitment savings accounts had a higher impact 
for wealthier households, a subgroup that may be 
under more pressure to share. The existence of the 
commitment device may have allowed farmers to 
credibly claim that money was inaccessible. 
Reminders to save—making tomorrow 
real today 
Beyond commitment savings, there are other inno-vations 
in savings product design that try to combat 
the tendency to spend, rather than save, limited re-sources, 
by making the future seem more real and 
relevant. These design innovations try to call the 
saver’s attention to her long-term goals, based on the 
theory that people get distracted by the everyday 
and need help remembering, and properly prioritiz-ing, 
the future. For example, a number of efforts to 
promote savings accounts ask the savers what goals 
they have for their savings, and then find ways to 
regularly remind them of that goal. One program 
had savers bring a representative photograph of 
their goal—the new bicycle she wanted, for example, 
or the new cook stove. The bank then created puz-zles 
with the pictures and gave the saver a piece of 
the puzzle every time she made a deposit (Karlan, 
McConnell, Mullainathan, and Zinman 2011). 
Four recent studies have examined the effects of 
two different approaches to making the present 
more salient to savers: one approach is to use re-minders, 
the other is to offer “labeled” accounts. 
The studies on savings reminders took place in 
Peru, Bolivia, and the Philippines, where savers 
were sent either letters (in Peru) or SMS text mes-sages 
(in Bolivia and the Philippines) reminding 
them to save. Karlan, McConnell, Mullainathan, 
and Zinman (2011) varied the messages to test the 
effects of different wording. Some savers received 
generic messages that said simply that they should 
save; others received messages that referenced a 
specific purchase that the saver said she wanted to 
make with her savings. 
The studies found that reminders increased av-erage 
savings balances overall by 6 percent, but this 
impact increased substantially, to 16 percent, for the 
Peruvian savers when the reminder referred to a 
purchase goal. In the environments where SMS 
text reminders were employed and automatically 
executed, the cost of employing reminders to save 
26. Note that this important finding points to a tension between 
individual well-being and that of the community. It could be 
that the introduction of commitment savings devices work 
well for those who take them up but could also harm mem-bers 
of their social network.
16 
is very low, making text reminders a highly cost-effective 
way to increase savings. 
Account labeling offered an even greater return 
for study participants in eastern Ghana.27 People 
have long used the technique of “labeling” to allo-cate 
funds for different purposes, and such labeling 
can be highly effective at protecting the funds allo-cated 
for, say, the rent from being siphoned for oth-er 
purposes. Some use mental tallying to allocate 
the funds; others literally place different amounts 
in different jars or envelopes. With this approach in 
mind, existing clients of the Mumuadu Rural Bank 
in eastern Ghana were asked about their savings 
goals; some were given the opportunity to open 
separate, parallel savings accounts labeled “educa-tion,” 
“business,” “housing,” or some other category. 
The study found that savers eligible to open parallel 
accounts saved 31 percent more on average than 
those in the comparison group, with the greatest ef-fect 
seen for the education label. 
The strong effects of commitment savings, text 
reminders, and account labeling show that small 
design changes can help poor people save more, and 
in some cases, to leverage those savings for positive 
income-generating purposes. 
Financial Product Plus: Improving 
Results with Improved Skills 
Many MFIs use the weekly or monthly repayment 
meetings they hold with their clients as an opportu-nity 
to teach some other relevant skill. No discus-sion 
of financial product design would be complete 
without commenting on these add-ons as a func-tion 
of product design. 
Add-on services—sometimes referred to as “mi-crofinance 
plus”—vary significantly in their focus 
and goals. Some of these programs provide useful 
secondary skills, such as health education, with the 
goal of helping customers avoid or lessen the im-pacts 
of disruptive events on income and savings. 
Others aim to equip customers with business or 
financial management skills that they can use to 
improve income generation. 
A lack of financial literacy and basic accounting 
skills offers one hypothesis for why the poor as a 
whole do not experience significant income gains 
when given access to formal credit—perhaps they 
do not have the skills to compare the likely returns 
of different investments and account for them ac-cordingly. 
Yet there is little concrete evidence on 
the effects of business or financial management 
skills training on poor entrepreneurs. Karlan and 
Valdivia (2011) found positive impacts of a business 
training program for microcredit borrowers in a 
study they conducted in Peru. Yet a paper by Cole 
and Shastry (2009) on U.S. participation in savings 
and investment markets showed that the education 
level and cognitive ability of the participant corre-lated 
with positive gains, but that financial literacy 
training had no effect. 
With the jury still out on the value of providing 
financial and business training, Drexler, Fischer, 
and Schoar (2011) tested whether financial literacy 
training can improve business outcomes for small 
businesses in the Dominican Republic. The re-searchers 
tested the effect of two different sets of 
content: one focused on traditional, principles-based 
accounting rules taught in the curriculum of-fered 
by organizations, such as Freedom from Hun-ger 
and BRAC; the other taught simple accounting 
rules of thumb, which essentially amounted to in-structing 
the business owners to keep personal and 
business accounts separate. 
The researchers found that the business owners 
who received the rules-of-thumb training applied 
sound accounting principles more often than their 
peers. For example, they were more likely to keep 
their business and personal cash and accounts sep-arate, 
they were more likely to keep records, they 
were more likely to calculate their revenues, and 
they were less likely to make mistakes when report-ing 
any of their results. Those who received the 
rules-of-thumb curriculum also earned more reve-nue 
than their peers, especially during “bad” weeks. 
Though the researchers are careful not to extend 
their findings outside the specific group studied, 
the results seen from rules-of-thumb education in 
this one study suggest that less may well be more 
when it comes to training poor business owners in 
27. S tudy by Karlan, Osei-Akoto, Osei, and Udry (forthcoming). sound financial practices.
17 
Poor people face an enormous amount of risk 
in their lives. A major effort is currently un-derway 
to expand access to insurance prod-ucts 
that improve upon traditional risk-sharing 
arrangements and informal insurance networks to 
help poor households deal with weather shocks 
and irregular income from agriculture. In theory, 
microinsurance—insurance targeted to the poor 
through low premiums and/or low coverage lim-its— 
should be in strong demand to act as a safety 
net for poor families whose crops may fail, whose 
livestock may die, and who may suffer from the ef-fects 
of bad weather and health shocks. This section 
introduces some encouraging research results on in-novations 
in microinsurance. Recent findings sug-gest 
that microinsurance has positive impacts on 
poor households, but persistent low rates of take-up, 
even for effective products, show that product 
design matters tremendously. 
Design matters 
The difficulty in designing good insurance products 
partly comes from problems of information asym-metry— 
when one party to a contract holds more 
information than the other. For one thing, people 
who are insulated against risk may behave differ-ently 
than they would have if they were fully ex-posed 
to the risk (what insurers call moral haz-ard). 
Second, higher risk individuals may be more 
likely to buy more insurance, which would not 
matter as long as the insurer could charge that in-dividual 
higher premiums to cover the risk. But if 
the insurance company is unable to identify the 
higher risk individuals, it responds by increasing 
the premium for everyone. Both these information 
asymmetries can push up premiums and contribute 
to low take-up of products. 
No perfect design solution has been found to 
eliminate issues of asymmetric information, but 
some types of risk should be easier to insure than 
others. Rainfall insurance stands out among these 
3 
(Karlan and Morduch 2009; Banerjee and Duflo 
2011). Rainfall insurance pays a set amount when 
rainfall, as measured by a local weather station, is 
lower or higher than established thresholds. Be-cause 
rainfall is not under the control of insurance 
clients, their behavior does not influence the possi-bility 
of a payout (moral hazard is eliminated). 
Rainfall insurance is also simpler and cheaper to 
administer than many other types of insurance; be-cause 
rainfall is a public event, insured households 
do not need to file claims, and insurance companies 
do not need to spend time and resources verifying 
the validity of claims.28 
Rainfall microinsurance holds promise to help 
households reduce their exposure to risk, and may 
modify farmers’ incentives to invest in riskier but 
more profitable crops or varieties. But take-up rates 
remain puzzlingly low. 
Impact of rainfall microinsurance on 
household decision-making 
Giné, Menand, Townsend, and Vickery (2010) mea-sured 
two different types of possible impacts of 
rainfall microinsurance in Andhra Pradesh, India: 
how well does having insurance help farmers cope 
with an agricultural shock (in their case, a drought), 
and how does having access to insurance affect 
household decision-making, even in the absence of 
a claim? Preliminary results indicate that insurance 
does not increase the use of inputs or change the 
allocation of land, although having access to rainfall 
insurance does cause farmers to shift toward more 
risky, rain-sensitive crops, which typically provide 
higher profit. 
In an ongoing project in Ghana, Karlan, Osei- 
Akoto, Osei, and Udry (forthcoming) focus on how 
Microinsurance and Household 
Decision-Making 
Pa r t 
28. One potential drawback in the design of rainfall insurance is 
the possibility of a gap between the amount of rainfall mea-sured 
at the weather station and the actual losses suffered by 
clients at their precise location, particularly if the two are far 
from each other.
18 
rainfall insurance helps rural households improve 
their farm decision-making, in particular whether 
microinsurance can help lower the risks of agricul-ture 
production and counter farmers’ risk aversion. 
The study couples rainfall insurance with cash 
grants in four randomly selected groups of farmers: 
in one group, farmers receive both insurance and 
subsidy, another group receives insurance only, an-other 
group receives capital only, and a final group 
receives neither capital nor insurance, serving as a 
comparison group. 
Providing insurance and capital together (i.e., 
subsidizing the purchase) produced the most im-pact. 
Farmers in the insurance and capital group 
increased their spending on farm chemical inputs 
by 47 percent, increased their cultivation area by 22 
percent, and were less likely to have members of 
their household miss meals than the comparison 
group. Farmers in the insurance-only group 
changed some of their farming decisions, but to a 
lower extent than farmers in the insurance and cap-ital 
group. This suggests that reducing risk is bene-ficial 
by itself, but much greater impact may come 
by looking at poor households’ financial needs in a 
more comprehensive way. 
Challenges in promoting microinsurance 
products 
Why, if having insurance has such potentially large 
impacts, are take-up rates among poor farmers so 
low?29 Cole et al. (2011) report take-up rates for a 
rainfall insurance product in India between 23 and 
29 percent, even though the households cited 
droughts as the most significant risk they face. 
About 40 percent of households in the Karlan, 
Osei-Akoto, Osei, and Udry Ghana project bought 
a rainfall insurance product at the actuarially fair 
price (the price that covers average payouts, but 
not the costs of administering the product). 
In a 1994 study in rural Thailand, Townsend 
showed that households use informal insurance 
mechanisms to maintain a certain level of con-sumption 
even when income fluctuates. Other re-search, 
however, indicates that these informal 
mechanisms do not cover all risks. Duflo and Udry 
(2004), for example, showed that husbands and 
wives fail to insure each other perfectly when a lack 
of rainfall affects the yield of crops grown exclu-sively 
by one or the other. In a survey in Andhra 
Pradesh (Cole et al. 2011), 89 percent of households 
reported that drought is the most significant risk 
they face. Asked why they do not purchase insur-ance, 
less than 25 percent of the surveyed house-holds 
(and as low as 3 percent in one sample) indi-cated 
that they did not need it. 
Cole et al. presents the best evidence to date to 
explain why take-up rates remain so low. Re-searchers 
measured take-up of a microinsurance 
product that protects farmers in Andhra Pradesh, 
India, against too little or too much rainfall. The 
researchers assigned a sample of potential clients 
to receive various offers and information about the 
product. Each offer or information set was de-signed 
to isolate one possible cause of low take-up: 
the price of the policy, the availability of cash in 
the household to purchase the policy, the under-standing 
of rainfall measurements by the potential 
client, the level of trust of the potential client to-ward 
the insurance scheme or the insurance mar-keting 
agent, and the framing of the information 
describing the insurance. 
As expected, the price of the insurance policy is 
a strong determinant of whether households buy 
the product. Take-up increased by 10.4 percent on 
average (from an overall average of 24–29 percent) 
when the premium decreased by 10 percent. Price, 
however, is not the only determinant of demand. In 
Cole et al.’s survey, “lack of available funds” was the 
most commonly cited reason for not purchasing in-surance. 
Potential clients may also lack information about 
and understanding of how formal insurance works. 
However, Cole et al. show that receiving additional 
information about the product did not cause an in-crease 
in take-up. 
Finally, lack of trust in the insurance provider 
may be another reason why poor households do not 
buy policies. To measure whether trust is indeed a 
significant driver of take-up, Cole et al. evaluated 
takeup of the insurance product when the market-ing 
team was accompanied on their visits to house-holds 
by an individual from Basix, a nongovern- 
29. See also Karlan, McConnell, Mullainathan, and Zinman (2010). mental organization that the farmers know well,
19 
versus when the team went out on its own. The re-searchers 
found that households that were visited 
by a marketer accompanied by a member of Basix 
were 10 percentage points more likely to purchase a 
policy, suggesting that trust is a significant issue. 
While far from providing a complete picture, 
these studies together do provide a more nuanced 
and precise set of information on how to better de-sign, 
price, and market microinsurance products so 
that the supply of products for poor clients can 
meet the real need in a cost-effective manner. 
Conclusion 
While still based on a relatively small number of 
studies, the work of researchers and participating 
microfinance providers is bringing new knowledge 
about how clients use capital, what helps them to 
save, and what constraints they face that prevent 
them from benefiting more from financial access. 
The overall message from this body of work is that 
poor people face various limits, and their ability to 
capitalize on opportunities varies greatly. One of 
the next steps is to find simple ways to identify 
those differences and cater to them with the right 
products delivered with the right design. 
Details matter. Purpose does as well—not all bor-rowers 
want to grow a business. The variable results 
seen can be as much a function of borrower intent as 
borrower ability. A one-size-fits-all product will not 
bring benefit to the borrowers or profit to the provid-ers. 
Instead, the microfinance industry needs to con-tinue 
to mature in ways that allow it to view poor 
customers as individuals. Some of those individuals 
will leverage financial services to smooth consump-tion; 
some to manage risk; some to make investments 
they have the skill and resources to profit from; some 
will do all of the above. With a view of serving all of 
these needs, microfinance providers may evolve a 
new generation of improved services and products 
that reliably and flexibly help poor people.
Annex 1 
Researchers Location Financial Service Intervention Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, India microcredit Researchers evaluate the impact of access to credit by randomizing Rachel Glennerster, and the placement of new Spandana MFI branches in Hyderabad, India. Cynthia Kinnan (2010) Lasse Brune, Xavier Giné, Malawi microsavings Researchers evaluate whether commitment devices can reduce self- Jessica Goldberg, and control problems and cash demands from social networks. Farmers Dean Yang (2011) were randomly assigned to receive either assistance to open an ordinary savings account, or to open an ordinary account with a commitment device. Shawn Cole, Xavier Giné, India microinsurance Researchers investigate the importance of price and nonprice Jeremy Tobacman, Petia determinants in the demand for rainfall insurance by randomly Topalova, Robert Townsend, varying the price of the insurance policy, randomly assigning certain and James Vickery (2011) households’ positive liquidity shocks, or randomly assigning endorse-ments 
20 
by a trusted agent. Other experiments test the role of financial 
literacy, product framing, and other behavioral biases. 
Bruno Crépon, Florencia Devoto, Morocco microcredit Researchers evaluate the impact of access to credit in a rural setting Esther Duflo, and William by randomizing the placement of new Al Amana MFI branches in Pariente (2011) Morocco. Alejandro Drexler, Greg Fischer, Dominican financial literacy/ Researchers evaluate the impact of financial literacy training on and Antoinette Schoar (2011) Republic business training business outcomes for small enterprises in the Dominican Republic. Two methods of financial literacy training are tested: (1) classic accounting principles, and (2) simple accounting “rules of thumb.” 
Esther Duflo, Michael Kremer, Kenya return to capital/ Researchers measure the rates of return for different quantities of and Jonathan Robinson (2008) inputs fertilizer used on crops in Kenya. Esther Duflo, Michael Kremer, Kenya commitment device Researchers evaluate an intervention to test whether providing and Jonathan Robinson (2010) mechanisms to save harvest income for future fertilizer purchases could be effective in increasing fertilizer use among farmers. Pascaline Dupas and Kenya microsavings Researchers investigate the importance of savings constraints for Jonathan Robinson (2011) microenterprise development by randomly providing small business owners in Kenya with access to savings accounts. Erica Field, Rohini Pande, India microcredit Researchers investigate how the term structure of debt influences John Papp, and Natalie entrepreneurship among the poor. Borrowers were randomly assigned Rigol (2010) either the classic microfinance contract with repayment beginning immediately after loan disbursement or a contract that provides a two- month grace period prior to repayment. Xavier Giné, Jessica Goldberg, Malawi microcredit Researchers evaluate the impact of an improved personal identification and Dean Yang (2011) system on loan repayment. Randomly selected borrowers who applied for loans for agricultural inputs in rural Malawi had fingerprints collected as a part of the loan application process.
21 
Main Findings Paper 
No discernible impact on measures of health, education, and female empowerment. The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a 
More businesses were created. While some households increased nondurable Randomized Evaluation 
consumption, others reduced expenditure on temptation goods, such as alcohol, 
tobacco, tea, and snacks, and instead invested in their businesses, or bought more 
durable goods. 
The commitment treatment had a large positive effect on the amounts of deposits and Commitments to Save: A Field Experiment in 
withdrawals made immediately prior to the planting season and a positive effect on Rural Malawi 
agricultural input use, leading to a 22 percent increase in the value of the crop output, 
and a 17 percent increase in total household expenditure. Farmers who had access only 
to the ordinary account showed lower or nonsignificant impacts on the same outcomes. 
Insurance did not increase the use of inputs or change allocation of land, but having Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence 
access to rainfall insurance did cause farmers to shift toward more risky, rain-sensitive from India 
crops, which typically provide higher profit. 
No discernible impact on measures of health, education, and female empowerment. Impact of Microcredit in Rural Areas of Morocco: 
For individuals with existing farming activities, access to credit increased the volume Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation 
of activity. Microcredit had no impact on nonagricultural businesses. Those with an 
existing business at the start of the study reduced consumption and considerably 
increased savings. But for those without prior business activities, consumption increased. 
Business owners who received the rules-of-thumb training applied sound accounting Keeping It Simple: Financial Literacy and Rules of 
principles more than their peers. Those who received the rules-of-thumb training also Thumb 
earned more revenues than their peers, especially during “bad” weeks. 
Farmers earn much stronger yields by using fertilizer at specific points during the How High are Rates of Return to Fertilizer? 
growing season. The annualized return to half a teaspoon of fertilizer at top dressing Evidence from Field Experiments in Kenya 
(when the maize plant is knee high) was almost 70 percent per year. 
The commitment device offering an opportunity to buy a voucher for fertilizer but with Nudging Farmers to Use Fertilizer: Theory and 
free delivery early in the season increased fertilizer use by 47 to 70 percent. The effect Experimental Evidence from Kenya 
of the commitment device early in the season was greater than other offers, such as free 
delivery later in the season, and a 50 percent subsidy also offered later in the season. 
Access to formal savings accounts for market stallholders led to increased business Savings Constraints and Microenterprise 
investment and personal income growth. Four to six months after account opening, Development: Evidence from a Field Experiment in 
women in the treatment group had a 4.5 percent higher daily investment in their Kenya 
businesses than women in the comparison group. There was was no measurable impact 
for men in the study. Several categories of expenditures were higher for women in the 
treatment group. Savings accounts also seemed to make women somewhat less 
vulnerable to health shocks. 
The grace period group members invested 6 percent more of their loans in their Term Structure of Debt and Entrepreneurial Behavior: 
businesses than borrowers who received no grace period, and two years after the loans Experimental Evidence from Microfinance 
were given, they had 30 percent higher average profits. Household income was also 
higher. However, the average result masks significant variation within the grace period 
group: some of the women did really well, while others suffered losses. Nineteen percent 
of the individuals in the grace period group ultimately defaulted on their loans compared 
with 2 percent default for the individuals with the standard repayment structure. 
As a result of the fingerprinting intervention, borrowers predicted to be least likely to Credit Market Consequences of Improved Personal 
repay showed a significant change in behavior. Fingerprinted borrowers in this group Identification: Field Experimental Evidence from 
took smaller loans when they knew they could be identified, and were more likely to Malawi 
repay their loans on time as well as eventually, compared to equivalent borrowers in 
the comparison group.
Annex 1, continued 
Researchers Location Financial Service Intervention Xavier Giné, Lev Menand, India microinsurance Researchers summarize results of previous research on rainfall Robert Townsend, and James insurance markets in India, which provides evidence that price, Vickery (2010) liquidity constraints, and trust all present significant barriers to increased take-up. Xavier Giné and Philippines microcredit Researchers investigate whether group liability is in fact necessary Dean Karlan (2011) for managing default risk. In one treatment, existing group-lending clients of the Green Bank of Caraga were randomly converted to an individual liability model. In a second treatment, new borrowers 
22 
started out with individual liability loans. 
Dean Karlan, Edward Kutsoati, Ghana microsavings Researchers evaluated the impact of a new type of “labeled” savings Margaret McConnell, Margaret account that was intended to help clients save by focusing their attention McMillan, and Christopher on their savings goals. Existing clients of the Mumuada Rural Bank Udry (forthcoming) in Eastern Ghana were asked about their savings goals, and some 
were given the opportunity to open separate, parallel savings 
accounts labeled “education,” “business,” “housing,” or some other 
category. 
Dean Karlan, Margaret Peru, Bolivia, microsavings Researchers measure the effectiveness of sending savings reminders McConnell, Sendhil Philippines in the form of letters (in Peru) or SMS text messages (in Bolivia and Mullainathan, and Jonathan the Philippines) to clients holding programmed savings accounts. Zinman (2011) 
Dean Karlan, Isaac Osei-Akoto, Ghana microinsurance Researchers investigate the role of risk in constraining farmer Robert Osei, and Chris Udry investment and technology adoption choices, and to evaluate its (forthcoming) importance relative to constraints on credit, by coupling rainfall insurance with cash grants. Dean Karlan and Peru financial literacy/ Researchers evaluate the marginal impact of adding business Martin Valdivia (2011) business training training to a group lending program in Peru. Dean Karlan and South Africa microcredit Researchers estimate the effects of expanding access to expensive Jonathan Zinman (2010) consumer credit in South Africa by randomizing loan approval for clients identified by the cooperating lender as being marginally creditworthy. 
Dean Karlan and Philippines microcredit Researchers evaluate the impact of increasing access to credit in the Jonathan Zinman (2011) Philippines by randomizing loan approval for clients identified as marginally creditworthy. Suresh de Mel, Sri Lanka return to capital/inputs To evaluate whether there are high returns to capital for micro- David McKenzie, and enterprises, researchers randomize the provision of cash and equipment Christopher Woodruff (2008) grants to small firms in Sri Lanka, and measure the increase in profits arising from exogenous (positive) shock to capital stock. 
Marcel Fafchamps, Ghana return to capital/inputs Researchers evaluate the differential effects of providing either cash David McKenzie, grants or in-kind grants of inventory or equipment on both male and Christopher Woodruff, female entrepreneurs. and Simon Quinn (2011)
23 
Main Findings Paper 
Preliminary results indicate that insurance does not increase the use of inputs or Microinsurance: A Case Study of the Indian 
change the allocation of land, although having access to rainfall insurance does Rainfall Index Insurance Market 
cause farmers to shift toward more risky, rain-sensitive crops, which typically provide 
higher profit. 
The shift to individual liability did not negatively affect loan repayment for either group. Group versus Individual Liability: Short and Long- 
The bank also saw an increase in outreach, as more customers, attracted by the Term Evidence from Philippine Microcredit Lending 
individual liability option, sought loans from the bank. Groups 
Savers eligible to open parallel accounts saved 31 percent more on average than 
those in the comparison group, with the greatest effect seen for the accounts labelled 
“Education.” 
Reminders increased average savings balances overall by 6 percent. This impact Getting to the Top of Mind: How Reminders Increase 
increased substantially, to 16 percent, for the Peruvian savers when the reminder Saving 
referred to a purchase goal. 
Farmers who receive both insurance and capital (i.e., subsidizing the purchase) Examining Underinvestment in Agriculture: 
increased their spending on farm chemical inputs by 47 percent, increased their Measuring Returns to Capital and Insurance 
cultivation area by 22 percent, and were less likely to have members of their household 
miss meals than the comparison group. Farmers who received insurance changed only 
some of their farming decisions, but to a lower extent than those who had the 
capital also. 
The results found positive impacts from business training. Teaching Entrepreneurship: Impact of Business 
Training on Microfinance Clients and Institutions 
Expanding access to credit increased borrower well-being: incomes increased, food Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply 
consumption went up, and measures of decision-making within the household Decisions to Estimate the Impacts 
went up, alongside community status and overall optimism. 
Net borrowing increased in the treatment group relative to the comparison. However, Microcredit in Theory and Practice: Using 
the number of business activities and employees in the treatment group decreased Randomized Credit Scoring for Impact Evaluation 
relative to the comparison, and subjective well-being declined slightly. However, 
microloans increased ability to cope with risk, strengthened community ties, and 
increased access to informal credit. 
The average real return to capital was 5.7 percent per month—substantially higher than Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from 
the market interest rate. Returns varied with measures of ability, household liquidity, a Field Experiment 
and the gender of the owner (men fared better than women). 
Cash grants to women entrepreneurs produced no return on capital, whereas in-kind When Is Capital Enough to Get Female Enterprises 
gifts of inventory or equipment to women showed a significant average return. When Growing? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment 
given cash, women invested less of the gift in the business, splitting off pieces for in Ghana 
household purchases or other expenses. The high returns from in-kind gifts came 
entirely from the women who had larger, higher profit businesses at the outset. 
Women with below-average profits (around $1 a day) saw no benefit in terms of 
profit from either form of grant. Men-owned businesses, on the other hand, saw 
signficant returns from both the in-kind grants and the cash grants.
24 
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Development: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya.” NBER Working Paper No. 
14693. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research. 
Economist, The. 2007. “In Praise of Usury.” The Economist, 2 August. 
———. 2009. “A Partial Marvel: Microcredit May Not Work Wonders but It Does Help the 
Entrepreneurial Poor.” The Economist, 16 July. 
Engle, Patrice L. 1991. “Maternal Work and Child-Care Strategies in Peri-Urban Guatemala: 
Nutritional Effects.” Child Development. Vol. 62, 954–65. 
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“When Is Capital Enough to Get Female Enterprises Growing? Evidence from a 
Randomized Experiment in Ghana.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5706. 
Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 
Feigenberg, Benjamin, Erica Field, and Rohini Pande. 2010. “Building Social Capital through 
Microfinance.” HKS Working Paper. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University. 
Field, Erica, Rohini Pande, John Papp, and Natalia Rigol. 2011. “Term Structure of Debt and 
Entrepreneurial Behavior: Experimental Evidence from Microfinance.” Harvard University 
Working Paper, December. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University. http://www.economics. 
harvard.edu/faculty/field/files/repayment_default_Dec19.pdf
26 
Freedman, David H. 2010. “Lies, Damned Lies, and Medical Science.” The Atlantic Monthly, 
November. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/11/lies-damned-lies-and- 
medical-science/8269/ 
Giné, Xavier, and Dean Karlan. 2011. “Group versus Individual Liability: Short and Long Term 
Evidence from Philippine Microcredit Lending Groups.” Working Paper. New Haven, 
Conn.: Yale University, June. 
Giné, Xavier, Jessica Goldberg, and Dean Yang. 2011. “Credit Market Consequences of 
Improved Personal Identification: Field Experimental Evidence from Malawi.” NBER 
Working Paper No. 17449. September. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic 
Research. 
Giné, Xavier, Lev Menand, Robert Townsend, and James Vickery. 2010. “Microinsurance: 
A Case Study of the Indian Rainfall Index Insurance Market.” World Bank Policy Research 
Working Paper Series, No. 5459. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. http://econ.worldbank.org/ 
external/default/main?pagePK=64165259&theSitePK=469372&piPK=64165421&menuPK= 
64166093&entityID=000158349_20101025152029 
Harford, Tim. 2008. “Conflicts of Interest.” Financial Times, 6 December. 
Helms, Brigit. 2010. “Microfinancing Changes Lives Around the World—Measurably.” 
Seattle Times, 7 April. 
Karlan, Dean, and Jacob Appel. 2011. More Than Good Intentions: How a New Economics Is 
Helping to Solve Global Poverty. New York: Dutton, Penguin Group, April. 
Karlan, Dean, Isaac Osei-Akoto, Robert Osei, and Chris Udry. Forthcoming. “Examining 
Underinvestment in Agriculture: Measuring Returns to Capital and Insurance.” 
Karlan, Dean, Margaret McConnell, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Jonathan Zinman. 2010. 
“Getting to the Top of Mind: How Reminders Increase Saving.” NBER Working Paper No. 
16205. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research. 
———. 2011. “Getting to the Top of Mind: How Reminders Increase Saving.” Yale University 
Working Paper, January. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University. http://karlan.yale.edu/p/ 
Top%20of%20Mind%202011jan.pdf 
Karlan, Dean, and Jonathan Morduch. 2009. “Access to Finance: Ideas and Evidence. Risk 
Management and Insurance.” Financial Access Initiative Note. New York: Financial Access 
Initiative. 
Karlan, Dean, and Jonathan Zinman. 2010. “Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized 
Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts.” The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 23 (1): 
433–64. 
———. 2011. “Microcredit in Theory and Practice: Using Randomized Credit Scoring for Impact 
Evaluation.” Science, 332(6035): 1278–84. 
Karlan, Dean, and Martin Valdivia. 2011. “Teaching Entrepreneurship: Impact of Business 
Training on Microfinance Clients and Institutions.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 
93(2): 510–27. 
Karlan, Dean, Jonathan Morduch, and Sendhil Mullainathan. 2010. “Take-Up: Why 
Microfinance Take-Up Rates Are Low & Why It Matters.” Financial Access Initiative 
Research Framing Note. New York: Financial Access Initiative.
27 
Reed, Larry R. 2011. “The State of the Microcredit Summit Report 2011.” Washington, D.C.: 
Microcredit Summit Campaign. http://www.microcreditsummit.org/SOCR_2011_EN_ 
web.pdf 
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Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 25(4): 599–634. 
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Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 25 (4): 635–64. 
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http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
Latest Findings from Randomized Evaluations of Microfinance
Latest Findings from Randomized Evaluations of Microfinance
Latest Findings from Randomized Evaluations of Microfinance

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Latest Findings from Randomized Evaluations of Microfinance

  • 1. Access to Finance Forum Reports by CGAP and Its Partners No. 2, December 2011 Latest Findings from Randomized Evaluations of Microfinance Jonathan Bauchet, Cristobal Marshall, Laura Starita, Jeanette Thomas, and Anna Yalouris 1
  • 2. © 2011 Consultative Group to Assist the Poor/The World Bank All rights reserved. Consultative Group to Assist the Poor 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20433 USA Internet: www.cgap.org Email: cgap@worldbank.org Telephone: +1 202 473 9594 Acknowledgments Our thanks to the following people who reviewed and gave helpful input on this paper: Lasse Brune, Erica Field, Nathanael Goldberg, Dean Karlan, Asim Khwaja, Meng Lu, David McKenzie, Jonathan Morduch, Jonathan Robinson, and Dean Yang, and from CGAP’s publications committee Tilman Ehrbeck, Alexia Latortue, Kate McKee, and Richard Rosenberg.
  • 3. 1 Latest Findings from Randomized Evaluations of Microfinance In 2009, the results from two microcredit impact studies in Hyderabad, India, and Manila, the Philippines were released to mixed responses (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010; Karlan and Zinman 2011). Some media declared mi-crofinance a failure (Bennett 2009). Many in the microfinance community dismissed these random-ized studies as too limited to be a true reflection of the entire sector.1 These first randomized studies caused a sensa-tion because they challenged the dominant impact narrative for microcredit—a narrative that rests on loans to capital-constrained microentrepreneurs who earn a steep return on marginal capital and thus can repay a relatively high interest rate and re-invest to grow out of poverty—and the way in which that narrative had been universalized in the popu-lar imagination. In fact, the results were more nu-anced. What the microcredit studies really showed is that this model of microcredit works for some populations—those who successfully grow busi-nesses— but not for others. Many now agree that the expectations for micro-credit in the popular discourse were overblown. For some, the pendulum had swung: far from a pan-acea against poverty, some argued that microcredit was actually doing harm. The evidence supports neither extreme view. In fact, the results of the studies aligned with and confirmed some of the evi-dence from nonrandomized methods already in the microfinance research literature that found modest but neither revolutionary nor deleterious impacts from credit. While the concept of capital that will allow poor people to unleash small business oppor-tunities remains valid for some poor clients, not ev-ery borrower is a microentrepreneur—take-up rates for credit products are often surprisingly low, and not all economic activities that poor people engage in yield high returns. Microcredit is not transform-ing informal markets and generating significantly higher incomes on average for enterprises. And yet the industry has focused almost exclusively on the rhetoric of entrepreneurship and has overlooked the many important benefits to households that are using loans to accelerate consumption, absorb shocks, or make household investments, such as in-vestments in durable goods, home improvements, or education for their children. Combined with other evidence, randomized evaluations are contributing to an emerging body of knowledge that is creating a new narrative around how financial services for the poor really work. As the results from new studies have been released, the discussion has evolved, and randomized evalua-tions are being used to examine when particular products and designs work, for what segments of people, and why. Today researchers are using randomized tech-niques to better understand the underlying finan-cial services needs of poor clients and what impacts are achieved when appropriate financial services are offered. Building on evidence from earlier non-randomized studies, researchers are increasingly able to work with microfinance providers to apply these techniques to product innovation and to tweak product design. In this way, randomized techniques can make a significant contribution to the field by clarifying our understanding of precise-ly how, and under what conditions, financial ser-vices benefit poor people.2 (See Box 1.) Poor households clearly have other financial needs that go beyond working capital loans to mi-croentrepreneurs. They use a variety of informal and semi-formal mechanisms to cope with risk, 1. See, e.g., Helms (2010). 2. Naturally, not all settings are appropriate for randomized eval-uations. This paper does not discuss such methodological issues in detail, but it does share findings from settings where randomized evaluations were feasible and illuminating.
  • 4. 2 Box 1 Frequently Asked Questions about Randomized Evaluations Why are randomized trials considered the most rigorous method of impact evaluation? In the case of evaluating a microfinance program, if we simply compare clients to nonclients we are comparing two differ-ent types of people: those who choose to borrow or save, and those who do not. The ones who choose to participate likely have different business acumen, tolerance for risk, and other characteristics, and studies have shown that they can be wealthier than nonclients—even before joining a microfi-nance program. By randomly assigning access to financial services, randomized trials ensure that the only difference, on average, between clients and nonclients is access to the program. Therefore any difference between the groups can be confidently attributed as the impact of the program. Can results from randomized trials be generalized? Randomized trials help to establish causality. But they do this only for the particular context of the evaluation (i.e., what we learn from Kenya may or may not apply to Vietnam). This is a limitation of all types of evaluation, however. Ran-domized trials are no more or less vulnerable than other seize opportunities, manage the risks and incon-veniences that come from having uneven cash flows, and smooth household consumption. They use credit or savings to pay school fees, they save to invest in businesses, and they use health and crop insurance, when available, to stave off risk. While these uses of financial services are differ-ent from the uses initially anticipated, they are still valuable, and the ability to manage finances is a fundamental part of everyday life for all peo-ple (Collins, Morduch, Rutherford, and Ruthven 2009). The financial services needs of poor households may require different product fea-tures, and perhaps different payment and deliv-ery structures, but when such needs are met methods. An increasing number of credible studies, using both qualitative and quantitative techniques, are helping to build a body of knowledge about how financial services work. But it is not a specific number of studies that will allow researchers to assert a theory to make predictions about what happens in other places. The only way to generalize findings is to conduct a series of careful replications to evaluate similar approaches in different contexts until a clear pattern emerges. Why do researchers measure results after only one or two years? Microentrepreneurs need much more time to establish their businesses or build up savings, so we should perhaps not expect to see impact on poverty within such a short timeframe. This is a limitation of randomized evaluations, as well as some other evaluation techniques. Most randomized evaluations of microfinance programs measure results after two years or less, in part, because practitioners are typically reluctant to refrain from serving a control group for longer than a couple years. However, follow-up studies may be employed to estimate long-run effects, and where practical, researchers may go back and resurvey households after a longer period. Why are randomized trials so expensive? Randomized evaluations are not more expensive than other types of evaluations. The high cost from many impact evalua-tions comes from collecting data, such as household surveys, to measure household welfare, whether randomized or not. Note: For a short history of randomized evaluations, see http://www.povertyactionlab.org/methodology/when/when-did-randomized-evaluations-begin appropriately, the impact should nonetheless be welfare-enhancing. Recent evaluations are helping us understand when access to the appropriate product is welfare-enhancing, and when it is not. And the emerging body of evidence is both promising and highly prac-tical, allowing practitioners to think more creative-ly about options that will help their clients. While microcredit in the India study showed no discern-ible impact on measures of health, education, and female empowerment, it led to more businesses be-ing created and enabled poor households with busi-nesses to change their spending patterns. Further randomized evaluations of other products have been far more positive on welfare impacts. A study
  • 5. 3 conducted in Kenya shows that access to savings accounts for female market vendors allows them to keep higher levels of inventory and therefore have higher incomes. Consumer credit was shown to have significant welfare benefits for wage earners in South Africa. A study conducted in Ghana pro-vides evidence that rainfall insurance helps farmers use more fertilizers and increase their cultivation area, and results in fewer meals missed for the fam-ily. (See Annex 1 for a summary of the research pa-pers discussed in this paper.) Perhaps one of the greatest contributions from these first randomized evaluations of microcredit will be to help reset expectations. Far from offering the last word on the impact of microfinance, the ex-isting evidence instead offers a foundation for learning what works, for whom, and under what circumstances so that products and delivery ap-proaches can be better used and adjusted to meet the needs of poor people. This paper summarizes the latest research find-ings from a new body of empirical evidence that uses randomized evaluations, similar to those used in medical trials, to compare how one group re-sponds to access to specific new financial services against how a comparable group fares without those services. (See Box 2.) This paper goes back a couple of years to the first studies that used this ap-proach, and summarizes a series of research studies presented at the October 2010 Microfinance Im-pact and Innovation Conference in New York. These studies evaluated product design for a range of financial services, including credit, savings, and insurance. The studies discussed here were under-taken by research affiliates of Innovations for Pov-erty Action (IPA), the Financial Access Initiative (FAI), and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) at the Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology; they are all randomized evaluations unless otherwise specified. Part 1 of this paper reviews the main results from randomized evaluations that measure the impact of microcredit and microsavings on business invest-ment and creation, consumption, and household well-being. Part 2 presents evidence from evalua-tions of products and delivery design. Part 3 dis-cusses the evidence on microinsurance products.
  • 6. 4 Evaluating the Impacts of Microcredit and Microsavings3 Many poor families in the developing world have limited access to formal financial services, including credit, savings, and in-surance. They instead rely on a variety of informal credit relationships with moneylenders, relatives, friends, or merchants. Poor people also use a num-ber of informal savings devices—for example, they may participate in rotating savings associations or keep their savings at home. These options are not ideal. They tend to be unreliable, and it can be hard to protect savers from the demands of relatives and friends.4 Traditionally, banks and other formal fi-nancial service providers, such as insurance compa-nies, have not considered the poor a viable market, and penetration rates for formal financial services in developing countries are extremely low.5 Increasing access to financial services holds the promise to help reduce poverty and improve de-velopment outcomes, by enabling the poor to smooth consumption, start or expand a business, cope with risk, and increase or diversify house-hold income. Microcredit stands to benefit poor individuals who lack collateral, steady employ-ment, verifiable credit history, or other require-ments necessary to gain access to formal credit. In the past three decades, access to credit has ex-panded dramatically. Now with nearly 200 million borrowers, microcredit has been successful in bringing formal financial services to the poor.6 Many believe it has done much more. By putting money into the hands of poor families, and partic-ularly poor women, they argue, microcredit has the potential to increase households’ health and education, empower women, and reduce poverty. What does the evidence say? Recent experimental evidence from three random-ized impact evaluations suggests that while increas-ing access to credit does not produce the kind of dra-matic transformations conjured in the popular imagination, with millions of poor people springing out of poverty simply by taking out loans and apply-ing them to their microbusinesses, it does appear to have some important—though more modest— outcomes for some people. These include creating new businesses and tipping consumption away from temptation goods, such as alcohol, tobacco, and snacks, so that households can invest in their busi-nesses or buy more durable goods. This suggests that microloans help some households reprioritize their expenditures and smooth consumption—a valuable function for poor households that suffer from irregular and unpredictable income streams. The results of these randomized evaluations find little, if any, evidence of impact on use of healthcare,7 education, or female empowerment within the treatment period (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010; Karlan and Zinman 2009; Crépon, De-voto, Duflo, and Parienté 2011). The groups that ben-efited most from increased access to credit tended to be men with relatively high incomes, not those typi-cally targeted by microfinance institutions (MFIs) (i.e., poor female entrepreneurs). Significant welfare benefits were found in a study that extended con-sumer credit to wage earners who were considered marginally creditworthy because it enabled them to withstand shocks and keep their jobs. One evaluation of the impact of access to formal savings for businesses in Kenya found increased 3. “Impacts” in this context refers to the effect that access to fi-nance has on the well-being of poor people, as indicated by business income, household income, household consumption, health, children’s schooling, and other measures. 4. Collins, Morduch, Rutherford, and Ruthven (2009) show that poor people use a variety of informal mechanisms to manage cash flow, cope with risk, and seize opportunities. They also find that at almost every turn poor households are frustrated by the poor quality—particularly the low reliability—of the in-struments they use to manage their meager incomes. 5. See CGAP and the World Bank (2010, p. 4). 6. According to the Microcredit Summit, as of 31 December 2009, 3,589 microcredit institutions reported reaching 190,135,080 clients (Reed 2011, p. 5). 7. Microcredit did help families deal with health shocks, but it did not lead to greater expenditure on healthcare or better health outcomes for children. Pa r t 1
  • 7. 5 Randomized Approaches to Measuring Impacta To evaluate the impacts of microfinance, researchers use ran-domized techniques to assess how the lives of people in a program changed compared to how their lives would have changed if the program had not existed. Simply comparing clients with nonclients cannot account for the fact that those who sign up are likely to have both observable and nonob-servable characteristics that make them not comparable to nonclients. Randomized assignment, whereby one group or individual gains access to a particular service while another group or individual does not, allows researchers to compare two statistically equivalent groups. Existing evaluations follow one of two approaches: ran-domizing MFI branch placement in new areas, or randomiz-ing loan approval for marginally creditworthy applicants. Randomizing MFI branch placement The approach used by Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan (2010) in urban India and Crépon, Devoto, Duflo, and Pariente (2011) in rural Morocco is to partner with an MFI and randomize the placement of new branches offering services. From a pool of areas identified by the MFI as being places where it would be a. For more on randomized evaluation methodologies, see Bauchet and Morduch (2010) and Duflo, Glennerster, and Kremer (2008). b. For a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of this approach, see Karlan and Zinman (2011). business investment and personal income growth among women, suggesting that savings could be an effective tool to help the poor accumulate funds for investment or consumption. Credit Impact of Grameen-style group lending in an urban setting Starting in 2005, Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan (2010) conducted the first randomized im-pact evaluation of expanding access to credit in a new urban market. Researchers partnered with Spandana, one of the largest and fastest growing MFIs in India, to identify 104 slums in Hyderabad as places where Spandana would be interested in open-ing new branches. Fifty-two communities were ran-domly interested in opening a new branch, the MFI randomly selects some areas for opening new branches. Areas not selected for the opening of a new branch make up the comparison group. Randomizing access at the margin A second approach, used by Karlan and Zinman in South Africa (2010) and the Philippines (2011), is to randomize access to credit among clients that the lending institution has identified as being marginally creditworthy. Applicants for loans are sort-ed into groups based on a credit scoring mechanism that mea-sures business capacity, personal financial resources, outside financial resources, personal and business stability, and demo-graphic characteristics. Those with high scores are automati-cally approved, and those with low scores are automatically rejected. From the group that falls in the middle and is scored borderline creditworthy, applicants are randomly assigned a loan. This allows researchers to compare outcomes for groups who received a loan with those who were denied credit. It also provides the lending institution with a way to judge what differ-ence approving more risky loans might make to its business so that it can fine-tune its approval threshold.b selected for the opening of a new MFI branch offering loans to self-formed groups of six to ten women. The typical loan averaged Rs. 10,000 (US$200), for families where the average monthly expenditure was Rs. 5,000 (US$100) for a family of five (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010). Twelve to 18 months after the introduction of an MFI branch, a comprehensive household survey was conducted in a random sample of eligible households in both treatment and comparison areas. Demand for the credit product was not high: take-up was 18.6 per-cent among households in the treatment group, 8.3 percentage points higher than in comparison areas. People with access to microcredit were more likely to have started a business. The probability of starting a business increased by 1.7 percentage points relative to comparison areas, implying that approximately one in five of the additional MFI Box 2
  • 8. 6 loans in treatment areas was associated with the opening of a new business. Beyond the impact on new business creation, there was no significant ef-fect on average business profits, monthly revenues, inputs spending, or number of employees. Access to credit did not change the amount house-holds spent significantly, but researchers did find a change in how households spent. Those with an ex-isting business bought more durable goods for their home and business. Households that did not start a business consumed more nondurable goods. But those who started a new business cut back on tempta-tion goods (tobacco, alcohol, tea, betel leaves, gam-bling, and food consumed outside the home) and in-vested more—tightening their belts to make the most of the new opportunity.8 This switch from temptation goods to investment and durable consumption in the groups with businesses is an encouraging finding. No evidence was found to suggest that micro-credit was empowering women, at least along mea-sured dimensions, such as exercising greater control over how the household spent its money. Research-ers also found no evidence of improved indicators for the use of healthcare services or education.9 While media reports interpreted the lack of pos-itive results along measurable dimensions of health, women’s empowerment, and education as signs that microcredit was a failure,10 Banerjee and Duflo say this study presented clear evidence that micro-credit was working along the dimension it was sup-posed to. The new businesses created and the shift away from small “wasteful” expenditures implied that access to loans enabled households to make clear choices to reprioritize, invest, and make the most of the new opportunity: “The main objective of microfinance seemed to have been achieved. It was not miraculous, but it was working” (Banerjee and Duflo 2011, p. 171). Impact of Grameen-style group lending in a rural setting In 2006 and 2007, Crépon, Devoto, Duflo, and Pari-ente (2011) conducted the first randomized impact evaluation of microcredit in a rural setting. While there are some differences, the results show some notable parallels with the Spandana study. Al Amana, a Moroccan microcredit institution, opened 60 new branches serving 81 rural districts that had no previous access to formal financial ser-vices. Taking advantage of this expansion, research-ers selected two similar villages at the periphery of each district and offered group loans of 1,000 to 15,000 DH (approximately US$124–1,855) to one randomly selected village, while the other village would be served two years later, after the outcomes of both groups had been compared. After two years, loan take-up was fairly low. Only 16 percent of people borrowed from Al Amana, and many used loans to pay off existing debt. Similar to the results found by Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan (2010) in urban India, there was no in-crease in consumption and no noticeable welfare improvements. Researchers did not find any evi-dence that access to credit helped absorb income shocks. Fourteen percent of households experi-enced health shocks, while 25 percent experienced shocks to business,11 yet there was no evidence that consumption decreased less for people with access to microcredit, as we would expect to see if access to credit helped families cope with financial shocks (Crépon, Devoto, Duflo, and Parienté 2011, p. 16). Contrary to what was found in India, the number of new businesses did not increase in rural Morocco as a result of the loans, even though there was a lot of activity in the sample in terms of businesses starting and finishing. For individuals with existing farming activities, access to credit increased the volume of activity: more employees were hired from outside the household, and sales, expenses, and profits in-creased. In the case of livestock activities, most of the expansion can be explained by higher savings (livestock accumulation). There were some minor effects on sales but no effect on profits. Animal hus-bandry also increased, and loans were used to diver- 8. Spending on temptation goods was reduced by Rs 9 per capi-ta per month (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010, p. 19). 9. Households in treatment areas spent no more on medical and sanitation items (e.g., medicines, soap) than comparison house-holds, and among households with children, households in treatment areas were no less likely to report that a child had a major illness in the past year. There was no significant increase in levels of spending on school tuition, fees, and other educa-tion expenses or on school enrollment of teenage children (Ba-nerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010). 10. See, e.g., Bennett (2009). 11. Esther Duflo presentation at Microfinance Impact and Inno-vation Conference in New York, October 2010.
  • 9. 7 sify the types of animals raised, increasing the asset value of the livestock. On the other hand, micro-credit had no effect on nonagricultural businesses. Those with an existing business at the start of the study reduced consumption (presumably as they ex-panded their business) and considerably increased savings. But for those without prior business activi-ties, consumption increased. These changes in con-sumption patterns are similar to those of the Hyder-abad study (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010). The findings suggest that microcredit is an opportunity that different people will take advantage of in different ways—whether because of disposition or circumstances. More evidence could help us un-derstand the factors that affect a person’s ability to make good use of loans. Impact of individual microcredit loans in a peri-urban setting Karlan and Zinman (2011) published the first ran-domized impact study to evaluate access to individ-ual microcredit loans in the Philippines. Research-ers worked with First Macro Bank, a for-profit lender offering small, short-term, uncollateralized credit with fixed repayment schedules to microen-trepreneurs on the outskirts of Manila. While the study focused on microentrepreneurs, the average income and education level of these customers is somewhat higher than that of traditional micro-credit borrowers.12 The bank used credit-scoring software to rate applicants based on business capac-ity, personal financial resources, outside financial resources, and personal and business stability. Some applicants scored well above the bank’s base re-quirements and some scored well below, but there was a marginal group that just barely failed to meet the bank’s criteria for lending. For the study, a num-ber of the 1,601 sample of marginally creditworthy applicants were randomly approved for a loan of around 10,000 pesos (US$220), equivalent to 37 per-cent of the average borrower’s net monthly income (Karlan and Zinman 2011). Eleven to 22 months later, the researchers found that even though they borrowed more, those given access to credit did not increase investment in their business and they reduced their overall number of business activities and employees. Subjective well-being slightly declined. But access to credit helped borrowers cope with risk, strengthened community ties, and increased their access to informal credit. Karlan and Zinman (2011) conclude that microcredit may work, “but through channels different from those often hy-pothesized by its proponents … and that start with the household rather than with the business.” Ac-cess to credit lowered the demand for other kinds of risk mitigation tools, a similar result to a study Kar-lan and Zinman (2010) conducted in South Africa, where wage earners with access to consumer credit were more able to absorb shocks, and therefore more likely to keep their jobs. Impact of consumer credit Karlan and Zinman (2010) worked with a consum-er finance company in South Africa in designing an experiment to estimate the effects of expanding consumer credit to low-income workers in South Africa.13 The lender had operated for over 20 years as one of the largest, most profitable consumer lenders in South Africa, offering small loans at high interest rates, frequently to low-income workers who have no collateral and must make payments on a fixed schedule. Just over half of the sample of 787 loan applicants who had narrowly failed to qualify under the normal underwriting criteria was offered standard loans of US$127 (equivalent to 40 percent of the median borrower’s gross monthly income) at a 200 percent annual percentage rate (APR).14 The results were quite striking. Expanding ac-cess to credit increased borrower well-being. Six to 12 months after taking out the loan, incomes were higher for applicants in the treatment group, and applicants in the treatment group were more likely to have kept their jobs than those in the comparison group. Twenty-six percent of treated households reported an improvement in food consumption. Subjective measures of decision-making within the household, community status, and overall optimism were also higher. In addition, the creation of a cred- 12. Households in the study had incomes averaging 5,301 pesos/ it history increased the probability of future loan month/household member (US$106/month/person, or about US$3.50/day). The Manila borrowers were far above the official Philippines poverty line of about 1,000 pesos/ month/person, and well above the Hyderabad slum dwellers in the Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan (2010) study, who earned about $20/month/person. 13. Income averaged about $300 a month. 14. APR describes the interest rate for a whole year (annualized). In this case, effective APR is used (the fee plus compound in-terest rate calculated across a year).
  • 10. 8 approval in the sample by 19 percent over a 15 to 27 month horizon. All these outcomes were measured well after the loan had been taken out and repaid. Savings15 To study the effects of savings constraints on the poor, Dupas and Robinson (2011) worked in collab-oration with the Bumala village bank in Kenya to randomly provide small business owners with ac-cess to savings accounts. The accounts offered no interest on deposits and included substantial withdrawal fees. There was nonetheless high demand for these costly savings strategies, which suggests that the available alter-natives were worse.16 The potential savers were market vendors, bicy-cle taxi drivers, and self-employed artisans who did not already have a savings account, but were inter-ested in opening one. The researchers had them keep daily logbooks with detailed information on business investments, expenditures, and health shocks.17 From this information, Dupas and Robin-son were able to examine the impact of the savings accounts along a variety of dimensions. Data from the bank showed that many women used the accounts quite intensively. For example, 25 percent of women saved more than 1,000 K Sh (US$14.28) in the accounts, a substantial amount given daily income of about $2 per day. Some women saved much more. These savings translat-ed into other positive outcomes. Four to six months after account opening, women in the treatment group had 45 percent higher daily in-vestment in their businesses than women in the comparison group. These findings suggest that women faced significant barriers to saving, and those constraints were important for the business-es they run. There was no measurable impact for men in the study. Several categories of expenditures were also higher for women in the treatment group. Food ex-penditures were 10–20 percent higher, suggesting that income had increased. Daily private expendi-tures were also 27–40 percent higher. This latter result also suggests higher income, though another possible explanation is that women were better able to shield their income from others, thus spend-ing a higher share of their income for themselves and their children. Savings accounts also seemed to make women somewhat less vulnerable to health shocks, which were particularly common in this sample. The log-books showed that women without savings ac-counts were forced to draw down their working capital in response to illness. In contrast, female savers did not have to reduce their business invest-ment levels when dealing with a health shock, and were better able to afford medical expenses for more serious illness episodes. The study suggests that the bank accounts of-fered were effective in increasing savings by over-coming pressure on market women to share their cash with others. Putting money into formal ac-counts seemed to reduce the risk of appropriation by relatives, friends, and neighbors.18 However, the sample size of this study was too small to be defini-tive, so future work will be needed to explore how robust this finding is. Despite the lack of evidence for positive effects on welfare from credit, the studies so far offer tanta-lizing evidence that there could be important poten-tial benefits for some poor households to be gained by helping the poor reprioritize their expenditures. Notably, the impact study for savings showed posi-tive outcomes for female savers. While it is still too early to reach any definitive conclusions, particu-larly for savings where there is just one existing im-pact study with a small sample size, the findings give researchers cause to explore further, and more stud-ies are underway to see if these findings hold up in other contexts. The next generation of studies is ex-amining product design to see how small changes can improve outcomes for poor clients. 15. In Part 2 we consider the impact of savings accounts com-bined with commitment devices that address the issue of self-control among farmers. 16. From the whole sample only 8 percent of respondents re-fused to open an account; 39 percent opened an account but never made a deposit. 17. Dupas, Karlan, and Robinson are currently replicating this study in four different settings: Chile, Malawi, Uganda, and the Philippines. 18. We use the term “formal” for consistency with the original research paper, but the savings accounts offered by Bumala village bank would often be called “semi-formal” since Bumala village bank is not regulated by the Central Bank of Kenya. It is affiliated with K-Rep bank and has private de-posit insurance.
  • 11. 9 Evaluations of Product Features— Design Matters As the headlines and bloglines buzz with dis-cussion of whether or not microfinance—or more precisely, microcredit—works, several evaluations have started using randomized ap-proaches to explore specific questions around product design. What would be the impact of offer-ing flexible repayment options, of allowing for grace periods, or of replacing group liability with individ-ual loans? This ongoing work reveals that small de-tails matter, sometimes enormously. This section reviews a series of recent studies that isolate specific features or attributes of prod-ucts to show how even small changes in their de-sign can yield significantly different results. These studies offer insights for how financial service pro-viders can tweak or improve their products to ben-efit poor and low-income clients. We begin with some studies that have explored variations on tradi-tional microcredit products and, indeed, challenge some core tenets of the microcredit movement. We then discuss the latest evidence on the effect of commitment savings, reminders to save, and ac-count “labeling.” Microcredit Design— Disrupting Tradition Targeting women, group liability, and weekly re-payments that start immediately have long been considered defining attributes of a classic micro-credit model that is particularly strong throughout South Asia and in some other places. Some provid-ers see them as keys to success in keeping default rates close to zero. Especially in the early days of the modern micro-credit movement, each of these features was seen as key to reducing the risk for the provider of uncollat-eralized lending, allowing many MFIs to operate as sustainable, even profitable, businesses. Group liabil-ity ensures repayment by enlisting the benefits of Pa r t screening and peer monitoring. Women, it is be-lieved, pay back their loans more reliably than men (Armendariz and Morduch 2007). (Lending to wom-en also supports the social mission of many MFIs, since women are more likely than men to be poor, and income in the hands of women is more often spent to benefit the household and the children.)19 And weekly repayment that begins right after the loan is given decreases credit risk by creating imme-diate discipline and a pattern of repayment. Simply put, the model works for MFIs. But does it work for borrowers? Increasing evidence suggests that some of these key design features may be far from optimal and may actually bring negative trade-offs. Some recent studies look in turn at group liability, the effects of lending to women, the importance of timing for en-suring repayment, and emerging tools for lenders to assess and monitor the credit worthiness of clients. Collectively, these results provide insight into im-portant product design options that may be used to improve financial outcomes for poor clients. Questioning group liability Group liability has been at the center of the peer pressure model, which assumes that borrowers will choose members they know to be reliable. Yet there are some very real disadvantages of group liability. If an emergency leads a group borrower to default, her social and community support system can un-ravel with it. Beginning in 2004, Giné and Karlan (2011) ran a study with Green Bank in rural areas of the Philip-pines to explore whether group liability was in fact necessary for managing default risk. The study ex-amined what happened when the bank switched its existing group liability model to an individual liabil-ity model, as well as when groups of new borrowers started out with individual liability loans. 19. See Thomas (1990), Engle (1993), and Schultz (1990). 2
  • 12. 10 The results showed that the shift to individual liability did not negatively affect loan repayment for either group. The bank also saw an increase in out-reach, as more customers, attracted by the individ-ual liability option, sought loans from the bank. The study was extended to new areas, in which groups either formed initially as individuals or as groups. Here, too, no difference in repayment was observed, although the credit officers were more reluctant to open up lending groups without individual liability. Given how such results likely rely heavily on cul-tural context and institutional incentives, these re-sults should not be extrapolated without caution, but they do provide cause for challenging the pre-sumption that group liability is a key to successfully lending to poor people. Strengthening the case against group liability for MFIs is the continued low demand for formal mi-crocredit. As mentioned in the microcredit impact studies described earlier, poor people are not pounding down the doors of microlenders,20 de-spite widespread, documented use among the poor of informal loans from friends, neighbors, or mon-eylenders. 21 One possible reason why so few poor people take out formal loans is that the group liabil-ity model repels risk-adverse individuals who are not willing to co-sign for their peers.22 Women, men, and returns to capital MFIs’ focus on lending to women is partly a conse-quence of commercial interest, given women’s higher loan repayment rates. Development re-search also suggests that women tend to put more of their earnings back into the home or into services for their children (health, education, etc.) than men do.23 Serving women, therefore, is good for business and good for fulfilling a social mission. As mentioned, the vast majority of microcredit programs nominally extend loans for the purpose of starting or running a business. Business loans are seen as addressing a critical need, since formal-sector jobs are scarce in poor communities and poor, unemployed women often do not have the necessary capital available all at once to invest in in-ventory or equipment to start a business or make necessary investments for growth. Giving women credit, cash, or business inputs theoretically re-lieves capital constraints and helps them take busi-ness opportunities. In practice, however, access to capital does not seem to be having as large an effect on increasing women’s incomes as development experts had thought. The three microcredit impact studies con-ducted in India, the Philippines, and Morocco showed that increasing the availability of credit had no impact on the profits of women-owned busi-nesses (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010; Karlan and Zinman 2011; Crépon, Devoto, Duflo, and Parienté 2011). A 2008 study by de Mel, McKenzie, and Woodruff on returns to capital for businesses in Sri Lanka found that the average real return to capital was 5.7 percent per month—substantially higher than the market interest rate—and the returns varied with measures of ability, household liquidity, and the gen-der of the owner. In a follow-up study (2009) the researchers show that women-owned businesses earned no returns from either cash or in-kind grants, compared to men in the study who earned high re-turns from both. These results could have been en-tirely explained by environment, however, given that only 35 percent of women participate in the work force in Sri Lanka and may choose low-return sectors for their businesses (World Bank n.d.). To test whether the results held in an environ-ment with higher female participation, McKenzie and Woodruff partnered with Fafchamps and Quinn from the University of Oxford to study fe-male and male entrepreneurs in Ghana, a country in which 74 percent of women participate in the workforce (World Bank n.d.). In Ghana, the re-searchers gave either cash grants or grants of in-kind inventory or equipment to different male and female entrepreneurs, to see whether cash had a different effect than in-kind capital, and whether 20. Loan take-up from MFIs was only 16 percent in rural Mo-rocco (Crépon, Devoto, Duflo, and Parienté 2011) and 18.6 percent in urban India (Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan 2010). 21. See Collins, Morduch, Rutherford, and Ruthven (2009). 22. Context may make a big difference to the effects of the group lending approach, and not all of the literature points in the same direction. For example, a World Bank study (Carpela, Cole, Shapiro, and Zia 2010) exploits a natural experiment and shows benefits of group lending. 23. See, e.g., Engle (1991).
  • 13. 11 women responded differently than men.24 They did, on both counts. Cash grants to female entrepreneurs in Ghana produced no return on capital, just as in Sri Lanka. Yet in Ghana, the in-kind gifts of inventory or equipment showed a significant average return for women. The researchers found that when given cash, women invested less of the gift in the busi-ness, splitting pieces off for household purchases or other expenses. They also found an important nuance: the high returns from in-kind gifts came entirely from the women who had larger, higher profit businesses at the outset. Women with below-average profits (around $1 a day) saw no benefit in terms of profit from either form of grant. Male business owners, on the other hand, saw significant returns to capital from both the in-kind grants and the cash grants. These findings from Ghana are certainly more encouraging for female microentrepreneurs than the earlier findings from Sri Lanka. But even in Ghana, it was only the larger female-owned busi-nesses that benefited in terms of profit. Women from the general population are not always, nor, in-deed, more likely to be, able to convert capital into profits, and men tend to be more successful overall. These results suggest opportunities to adjust to whom MFIs lend and how they structure their products. MFIs may have a greater impact on the women they serve if they can filter their applicant pool to identify and target high performers. It is rel-evant not only for knowing which clients can excel, but also for the MFIs’ ability to offer more flexible products. Knowing what the client is likely to earn can allow lenders to adjust the risk profile—and the interest rate. It even may allow institutions to add microequity to their product portfolio, assuming they can find effective ways to accurately monitor business performance. It may also be time for mi-crofinance providers to redesign their loan prod-ucts to acknowledge what many already know— that loans are often used for nonbusiness purposes.25 The role of timing—delaying repayment Growing a business, no matter the size, often re-quires entrepreneurs to make investments and then wait for those investments to mature. Yet the inflex-ible nature of the typical microcredit programs, in-volving weekly, or monthly, repayments that begin the first week or month after the loan is given, may not provide the necessary time for investments to show a yield. Many loan recipients, in fact, set aside part of the loan from the beginning to ensure they can make the first two or more payments. So clients are not investing the full bulk of the funds, and they may be avoiding investments that require a longer period to yield returns. When Field, Pande, Papp, and Rigol (2011) looked at small business loan design in the United States, they saw that business loans build in a grace period of a few months between when the funds are given and when the borrower has to begin paying the loan back. Between 13 percent and 15 percent of U.S. business borrowers default, compared to be-tween 2 percent and 5 percent of microcredit bor-rowers in developing countries, a significant in-crease in default risk for the lender. Yet the key question—does increased repayment flexibility cor-relate with increased profit and still allow the lend-er to manage default risks adequately—is important enough from the development perspective to war-rant examination. In West Bengal, India, the researchers (2011) compared the outcomes of two groups of micro-credit borrowers with the Village Welfare Society. One group received a traditional group microcredit product with semi-weekly payments that started immediately after receipt of the loan, and the sec-ond group was awarded a two-month grace period before repayment began. 24. Fafchamps, McKenzie, Quinn, and Woodruff (2011) offer grants instead of loans because many banks require that their clients already be business owners or have an idea for a start-up that the banks deem worthy; likewise, entrepreneurs who take loans may be more willing to take risks. Both factors po-tentially create a study population that is more savvy or more likely to be successful than the average population, so they work with existing entrepreneurs and provide them with grants as a technique for preventing bias. 25. As noted, in practice poor clients are not only using loans to invest in businesses, but also as a means to manage their household cash flow, for emergencies, and to smooth con-sumption. While theory of impact is quite different, the use of microcredit or savings for consumption smoothing may nonetheless be important for the overall well-being of clients.
  • 14. 12 The grace period group members invested 6 per-cent more of their loans in their businesses than borrowers who received no grace period, and two years after the loans were given, those grace period borrowers saw 30 percent higher average profits. Household income was also higher on average for the grace period borrowers. However, the average result masks significant variation within the grace period group. The 25 percent average profit increase came about because some of the women did extremely well with the de-layed payment loans. Unfortunately, big wins for some were matched by big losses for others—9 per-cent of the individuals in the grace period group ul-timately defaulted on their loans, compared with a 2 percent default rate among individuals with the standard weekly repayment structure. In 2008, the Village Welfare Society participated in a study measuring the effects of weekly versus monthly meetings on loan repayment (conducted by Feigenberg with Field and Pande). When the re-searchers found that the monthly meetings did not affect repayment, the bank switched to month-ly meetings, as the operational savings were sub-stantial. These results again suggest significant opportu-nities for both high-functioning borrowers and the institutions that serve them. Banks could commer-cialize business loans with a two-month grace pe-riod for all borrowers who want it by increasing the interest rate on those loans sufficiently to make up the losses from default. It is not clear how much such high rates would affect demand. Another, more nuanced, approach is to identify who the high-potential borrowers are before set-ting product terms. Such individualized service of-fers the possibility of creating a targeted product— whether loan or microequity—built around that person’s potential earnings, and tailoring loan amount, term, and price accordingly. The role of the borrower—client screening as a product design tool Financial service providers would be well-served by any technique or tool that would allow them to predict in advance who the high performers might be. Banerjee, Duflo, Glennerster, and Kinnan (2010) delved into their microcredit impact data from Hy-derabad to identify some shared characteristics among those individuals in their sample who were more likely to start a business, but they have not tested whether that information predicts successful use of a loan when used as a selection tool. Creating that selection tool is a high priority for Khwaja, of Harvard’s Kennedy School. Khwaja’s work focuses on the developing world’s small firms—enterprises that have outgrown microcredit, but that still lack the collateral and the size to easily secure financing from a mainstream bank. These businesses typically find it very difficult to grow past the micro level for lack of investment capital. This absence of small, formal firms is known as the “missing middle,” and it is a problem, not only for the high-potential poor who have the ability to grow but lack the necessary capital, but also for poor en-trepreneurs who have trouble increasing their in-come from self-employment. High-potential micro-entrepreneurs need financing, and the banks that fund them need an inexpensive and reliable way to sift through a pool of candidates and pull out those with the highest potential for success. The challenge is not insignificant. The banks and venture capital firms that typically provide business financing screen ideas for their business value and the entrepreneur’s ability to pay back by delving into credit or business histories or conducting an in-depth evaluation of the business idea. These op-tions are not viable with microfirms, however, be-cause of their small size and smaller predicted re-turns. For small firms, banks really need to know about the ideas, skills, and trustworthiness of the individual borrower. Khwaja focused on the potential of automated psychographic evaluation tools for measuring an entrepreneur’s ability and honesty. The psycho-graphic test is based on tools used by human re-source departments in developed countries. These tests are prevalent in other contexts, they are diffi-cult to game, and the results tend to correlate with entrepreneurial success. To test their appropriateness for funding high-potential microbusinesses, Khwaja has conducted a number of tests around the world to see if the psy-chographic tools work to identify high potential en-trepreneurs with good ideas, strong business ability, and honest character. Khwaja and his colleagues
  • 15. 13 developed a 30–40 minute computerized psycho-graphic test to measure the test taker’s intelligence; implicit, practical business skills; and psychology or character (Is he honest? How does she view the world, etc.?). To date, more than 2,000 entrepre-neurs in seven countries have taken the test. They have had different levels of experience, and they have sought loans of varying sizes (from $2,000 to $150,000). Khwaja’s pilot data show that the test meets or exceeds the predictive ability of credit scoring models used in developed countries, and it effectively predicts financial success for micro or small business entrepreneurs who do not have fi-nancial histories. The test is also uncovering some nonintuitive in-dicators of business failure. For example, test takers who scored higher for intelligence actually achieve lower profits; honesty also correlates with lower than average profits—in both cases, these effects were stronger for women than men. The indicators of success seem more obvious. Individuals with strong drive do much better, and those with busi-ness skills do moderately better than the average. Making the borrower do the work Khwaja’s approach puts the onus on the lender to extract and evaluate that information and use it to make a lending decision. Giné, Goldberg, and Yang take a different approach. Giné, Goldberg, and Yang (2011) evaluated the impact of improving the lending institution’s abil-ity to withhold credit from past defaulters and re-ward good borrowers with expanded credit on borrower behavior. Their study focuses on paprika farmers in rural Malawi, where group liability and frequent repayments are impractical, since crop failure usually affects everyone in a region, and farm income from this cash crop arrives all at once. Likewise, there is no central identification system in Malawi, so borrowers who default have little problem accessing future loans, either by us-ing a different name or seeking financing some-where else. Together, these factors make it diffi-cult for the lender to use loan access as an incentive to encourage repayment—the customer knows de-fault will likely have little consequence. The researchers sought to improve the lender’s ability to identify borrowers through the use of bio-metric identifiers. Applicants in the study answered questions about their business, their past borrow-ing experiences, and their households, and they were given a presentation on the importance of maintaining a clean credit history to ensure future access to credit. Some of the borrowers then had their thumbprint recorded and were given a further demonstration of how the print would be used to identify them in the future. Data collected at the beginning of the study were used to identify borrowers predicted to be high-risk, based on their probability of business success and likelihood of repayment. As a result of the fin-gerprinting intervention, borrowers predicted to be least likely to repay showed a significant change in behavior. Fingerprinted borrowers in this group took smaller loans when they knew they could be identified and were more likely to repay their loans on time as well as eventually, compared to equiva-lent borrowers in the comparison group. Fingerprinted borrowers in the high-risk group also allocated more of their land to the production of paprika (the crop that the in-kind loan was intended to finance) and invested more inputs, such as fertil-izer, in the paprika crop. In addition to improving the repayment performance of high-risk borrowers, be-ing in the fingerprinting system may have further benefits for well-performing borrowers if their good credit histories can be stored and used to access bet-ter borrowing conditions from other institutions. Savings Design As early as 1999, Rutherford showed that poor peo-ple are active money managers: they look for ways to “save up” (to create a usefully large sum of money by storing it somewhere) or to “save down” (taking a loan and repaying it later out of future savings). Given that the poor do save, why don’t they use those savings to finance business investments? Experts agree it might be hard for poor individ-uals with variable income to get together enough money to start a business, but running a business theoretically should not require further outside funding, given that many microenterprises earn high returns. Ananth, Karlan, and Mullainathan (2007) conducted a survey that showed it would
  • 16. 14 not take much for vegetable market sellers in In-dia— who usually finance the purchase of daily in-ventory with loans from the moneylender—to save a very small amount from the business every day, equivalent to the amount needed to buy a cup of tea. Within 28 days, those market sellers would have saved the same amount that they borrow ev-ery day. At this point, they would no longer need cash from the moneylender and could instead use savings for inventory purchases, thus saving even more because they don’t have to pay the money-lender’s high interest rates (Ananth, Karlan, and Mullainathan 2007). Yet the vegetable vendors do not do it. Ananth, Karlan, and Mullainathan tried a number of different techniques to nudge the mar-ket sellers to use savings for their businesses. For instance, they tried giving vendors a “top up” grant that restored savings after an emergency. They also offered “financial literacy” training that taught the vendors about the compounding effects of in-creased savings and decreased interest rate pay-ments, under the theory that the vendors did not fully understand how much the moneylender was costing them. Yet nothing seemed to change the typical practice of frequent borrowing from the moneylender. Psychology offers a number of theories for why people do not save enough for productive invest-ments, despite having the apparent means to do so. One theory suggests that some individuals simply value the present more, and therefore prefer spend-ing available funds immediately rather than saving them. The future is unknown, so they don’t see much use in considering it. Another possibility is that people want to save, but self-control issues make it difficult for them to resist the temptation to use extra cash today rather than save it for tomor-row. Limited attention can also explain the lack of savings as people fail to foresee the need for cash in the future. Last, there is the reality that not-quite-as-poor individuals may receive a lot of pressure from friends and family members to share any (relative) windfalls or help on a day-to-day basis pay for re-curring or emergency expenses, which eat away at savings. Innovations in savings product design therefore aim to help savers overcome one or more of these challenges. Commitment savings Commitment savings accounts are one of the prime innovations that have come out of recent efforts to help poor people save. Commitment savings ac-counts require the saver to deposit a certain amount of money in a bank account and relinquish access to the cash for a period of time—usually until a certain date or until a certain dollar amount has accumulat-ed. Such lack of access is valuable as a way of protect-ing the cash both from the impulses of the savers themselves, and from the hands of family and neigh-bors. Ashraf, Karlan, and Yin (2006) conducted a study on commitment savings accounts in the Philip-pines that show they are effective at increasing sav-ings, especially for people with self-control issues. More recent studies have examined how a com-mitment savings product helps farmers to adopt the use of fertilizer and invest more in their crops. As shown in randomized evaluations, farmers can earn much stronger yields from their crops when they take small steps, such as using fertilizer at specific points during the growing season. Duflo, Kremer, and Robinson (2008) show that, among maize farm-ers in western Kenya, the annualized return to ½ teaspoon of fertilizer at top dressing (when the maize plant is knee high) was almost 70 percent per year. Despite this evidence, few farmers consistently use fertilizer, largely because they earn all their in-come for the year at harvest and do not have suffi-cient funds left over to buy it at planting. In a fol-low- up study, Duflo, Kremer, and Robinson (2010) show how a simple commitment product can in-crease fertilizer use. A field officer visited farmers immediately after harvest and offered them an opportunity to buy a voucher for fertilizer, at the regular price, but with free delivery. The results showed that free delivery early in the season in-creases fertilizer use by 47–70 percent. To benchmark this effect, a second treatment group was made the same offer of free delivery later in the season, while a third was offered a 50 percent subsidy later in the season. If farmers are complete-ly rational, then the effect of free delivery later in the season should be the same as earlier, and the ef-fect of the subsidy should be greater. However, the effect of the commitment device was greater than offering free delivery, even with a 50 percent subsi-dy on fertilizer, later in the season.
  • 17. 15 Based on that knowledge, Brune, Giné, Goldberg, and Yang (2011) estimated the impacts of facilitat-ing access to a savings account coupled with a com-mitment device as a mechanism to encourage sav-ings among cash crop farmers in Malawi. The evaluation allowed farmers to put funds into a spe-cial account where withdrawals were restricted for defined periods. The idea was to help farmers to buy inputs by better dealing with self-control prob-lems and cash demands from their social network. In the study, farmers in the treatment group were randomly assigned to receive assistance in either opening an ordinary savings account or opening an ordinary account with a commitment device. The results of the evaluation showed the com-mitment treatment had a large positive effect on the amounts of deposits and withdrawals made imme-diately before the planting season. On average, the net effect on deposits (savings balance) was positive although not statistically significant. Along with in-creasing savings previous to the planting seasons, the commitment device also had positive effects in terms of a number of outcomes of interest. Farmers in this treatment group had a 26 percent increase in agricultural input use, 22 percent increase in value of crop output in subsequent harvest, and 17 per-cent increase in household total expenditure re-ported in the past 30 days. Farmers who had access to only the ordinary account showed lower or non-significant impacts in terms of those same out-comes, suggesting the commitment device played an important role for these results. Commitment savings accounts seem to help this community of farmers less by increasing their self-control than by shielding funds from an individual’s social network (for better or worse).26 The study data show that actual amounts saved in the ac-counts were very low, ruling out that it helped indi-viduals with self-control problems by restricting their options to spend. Additionally, study partici-pants who were identified as having self-control problems experienced no different effects from the commitment savings than their peers. Instead, the commitment savings accounts had a higher impact for wealthier households, a subgroup that may be under more pressure to share. The existence of the commitment device may have allowed farmers to credibly claim that money was inaccessible. Reminders to save—making tomorrow real today Beyond commitment savings, there are other inno-vations in savings product design that try to combat the tendency to spend, rather than save, limited re-sources, by making the future seem more real and relevant. These design innovations try to call the saver’s attention to her long-term goals, based on the theory that people get distracted by the everyday and need help remembering, and properly prioritiz-ing, the future. For example, a number of efforts to promote savings accounts ask the savers what goals they have for their savings, and then find ways to regularly remind them of that goal. One program had savers bring a representative photograph of their goal—the new bicycle she wanted, for example, or the new cook stove. The bank then created puz-zles with the pictures and gave the saver a piece of the puzzle every time she made a deposit (Karlan, McConnell, Mullainathan, and Zinman 2011). Four recent studies have examined the effects of two different approaches to making the present more salient to savers: one approach is to use re-minders, the other is to offer “labeled” accounts. The studies on savings reminders took place in Peru, Bolivia, and the Philippines, where savers were sent either letters (in Peru) or SMS text mes-sages (in Bolivia and the Philippines) reminding them to save. Karlan, McConnell, Mullainathan, and Zinman (2011) varied the messages to test the effects of different wording. Some savers received generic messages that said simply that they should save; others received messages that referenced a specific purchase that the saver said she wanted to make with her savings. The studies found that reminders increased av-erage savings balances overall by 6 percent, but this impact increased substantially, to 16 percent, for the Peruvian savers when the reminder referred to a purchase goal. In the environments where SMS text reminders were employed and automatically executed, the cost of employing reminders to save 26. Note that this important finding points to a tension between individual well-being and that of the community. It could be that the introduction of commitment savings devices work well for those who take them up but could also harm mem-bers of their social network.
  • 18. 16 is very low, making text reminders a highly cost-effective way to increase savings. Account labeling offered an even greater return for study participants in eastern Ghana.27 People have long used the technique of “labeling” to allo-cate funds for different purposes, and such labeling can be highly effective at protecting the funds allo-cated for, say, the rent from being siphoned for oth-er purposes. Some use mental tallying to allocate the funds; others literally place different amounts in different jars or envelopes. With this approach in mind, existing clients of the Mumuadu Rural Bank in eastern Ghana were asked about their savings goals; some were given the opportunity to open separate, parallel savings accounts labeled “educa-tion,” “business,” “housing,” or some other category. The study found that savers eligible to open parallel accounts saved 31 percent more on average than those in the comparison group, with the greatest ef-fect seen for the education label. The strong effects of commitment savings, text reminders, and account labeling show that small design changes can help poor people save more, and in some cases, to leverage those savings for positive income-generating purposes. Financial Product Plus: Improving Results with Improved Skills Many MFIs use the weekly or monthly repayment meetings they hold with their clients as an opportu-nity to teach some other relevant skill. No discus-sion of financial product design would be complete without commenting on these add-ons as a func-tion of product design. Add-on services—sometimes referred to as “mi-crofinance plus”—vary significantly in their focus and goals. Some of these programs provide useful secondary skills, such as health education, with the goal of helping customers avoid or lessen the im-pacts of disruptive events on income and savings. Others aim to equip customers with business or financial management skills that they can use to improve income generation. A lack of financial literacy and basic accounting skills offers one hypothesis for why the poor as a whole do not experience significant income gains when given access to formal credit—perhaps they do not have the skills to compare the likely returns of different investments and account for them ac-cordingly. Yet there is little concrete evidence on the effects of business or financial management skills training on poor entrepreneurs. Karlan and Valdivia (2011) found positive impacts of a business training program for microcredit borrowers in a study they conducted in Peru. Yet a paper by Cole and Shastry (2009) on U.S. participation in savings and investment markets showed that the education level and cognitive ability of the participant corre-lated with positive gains, but that financial literacy training had no effect. With the jury still out on the value of providing financial and business training, Drexler, Fischer, and Schoar (2011) tested whether financial literacy training can improve business outcomes for small businesses in the Dominican Republic. The re-searchers tested the effect of two different sets of content: one focused on traditional, principles-based accounting rules taught in the curriculum of-fered by organizations, such as Freedom from Hun-ger and BRAC; the other taught simple accounting rules of thumb, which essentially amounted to in-structing the business owners to keep personal and business accounts separate. The researchers found that the business owners who received the rules-of-thumb training applied sound accounting principles more often than their peers. For example, they were more likely to keep their business and personal cash and accounts sep-arate, they were more likely to keep records, they were more likely to calculate their revenues, and they were less likely to make mistakes when report-ing any of their results. Those who received the rules-of-thumb curriculum also earned more reve-nue than their peers, especially during “bad” weeks. Though the researchers are careful not to extend their findings outside the specific group studied, the results seen from rules-of-thumb education in this one study suggest that less may well be more when it comes to training poor business owners in 27. S tudy by Karlan, Osei-Akoto, Osei, and Udry (forthcoming). sound financial practices.
  • 19. 17 Poor people face an enormous amount of risk in their lives. A major effort is currently un-derway to expand access to insurance prod-ucts that improve upon traditional risk-sharing arrangements and informal insurance networks to help poor households deal with weather shocks and irregular income from agriculture. In theory, microinsurance—insurance targeted to the poor through low premiums and/or low coverage lim-its— should be in strong demand to act as a safety net for poor families whose crops may fail, whose livestock may die, and who may suffer from the ef-fects of bad weather and health shocks. This section introduces some encouraging research results on in-novations in microinsurance. Recent findings sug-gest that microinsurance has positive impacts on poor households, but persistent low rates of take-up, even for effective products, show that product design matters tremendously. Design matters The difficulty in designing good insurance products partly comes from problems of information asym-metry— when one party to a contract holds more information than the other. For one thing, people who are insulated against risk may behave differ-ently than they would have if they were fully ex-posed to the risk (what insurers call moral haz-ard). Second, higher risk individuals may be more likely to buy more insurance, which would not matter as long as the insurer could charge that in-dividual higher premiums to cover the risk. But if the insurance company is unable to identify the higher risk individuals, it responds by increasing the premium for everyone. Both these information asymmetries can push up premiums and contribute to low take-up of products. No perfect design solution has been found to eliminate issues of asymmetric information, but some types of risk should be easier to insure than others. Rainfall insurance stands out among these 3 (Karlan and Morduch 2009; Banerjee and Duflo 2011). Rainfall insurance pays a set amount when rainfall, as measured by a local weather station, is lower or higher than established thresholds. Be-cause rainfall is not under the control of insurance clients, their behavior does not influence the possi-bility of a payout (moral hazard is eliminated). Rainfall insurance is also simpler and cheaper to administer than many other types of insurance; be-cause rainfall is a public event, insured households do not need to file claims, and insurance companies do not need to spend time and resources verifying the validity of claims.28 Rainfall microinsurance holds promise to help households reduce their exposure to risk, and may modify farmers’ incentives to invest in riskier but more profitable crops or varieties. But take-up rates remain puzzlingly low. Impact of rainfall microinsurance on household decision-making Giné, Menand, Townsend, and Vickery (2010) mea-sured two different types of possible impacts of rainfall microinsurance in Andhra Pradesh, India: how well does having insurance help farmers cope with an agricultural shock (in their case, a drought), and how does having access to insurance affect household decision-making, even in the absence of a claim? Preliminary results indicate that insurance does not increase the use of inputs or change the allocation of land, although having access to rainfall insurance does cause farmers to shift toward more risky, rain-sensitive crops, which typically provide higher profit. In an ongoing project in Ghana, Karlan, Osei- Akoto, Osei, and Udry (forthcoming) focus on how Microinsurance and Household Decision-Making Pa r t 28. One potential drawback in the design of rainfall insurance is the possibility of a gap between the amount of rainfall mea-sured at the weather station and the actual losses suffered by clients at their precise location, particularly if the two are far from each other.
  • 20. 18 rainfall insurance helps rural households improve their farm decision-making, in particular whether microinsurance can help lower the risks of agricul-ture production and counter farmers’ risk aversion. The study couples rainfall insurance with cash grants in four randomly selected groups of farmers: in one group, farmers receive both insurance and subsidy, another group receives insurance only, an-other group receives capital only, and a final group receives neither capital nor insurance, serving as a comparison group. Providing insurance and capital together (i.e., subsidizing the purchase) produced the most im-pact. Farmers in the insurance and capital group increased their spending on farm chemical inputs by 47 percent, increased their cultivation area by 22 percent, and were less likely to have members of their household miss meals than the comparison group. Farmers in the insurance-only group changed some of their farming decisions, but to a lower extent than farmers in the insurance and cap-ital group. This suggests that reducing risk is bene-ficial by itself, but much greater impact may come by looking at poor households’ financial needs in a more comprehensive way. Challenges in promoting microinsurance products Why, if having insurance has such potentially large impacts, are take-up rates among poor farmers so low?29 Cole et al. (2011) report take-up rates for a rainfall insurance product in India between 23 and 29 percent, even though the households cited droughts as the most significant risk they face. About 40 percent of households in the Karlan, Osei-Akoto, Osei, and Udry Ghana project bought a rainfall insurance product at the actuarially fair price (the price that covers average payouts, but not the costs of administering the product). In a 1994 study in rural Thailand, Townsend showed that households use informal insurance mechanisms to maintain a certain level of con-sumption even when income fluctuates. Other re-search, however, indicates that these informal mechanisms do not cover all risks. Duflo and Udry (2004), for example, showed that husbands and wives fail to insure each other perfectly when a lack of rainfall affects the yield of crops grown exclu-sively by one or the other. In a survey in Andhra Pradesh (Cole et al. 2011), 89 percent of households reported that drought is the most significant risk they face. Asked why they do not purchase insur-ance, less than 25 percent of the surveyed house-holds (and as low as 3 percent in one sample) indi-cated that they did not need it. Cole et al. presents the best evidence to date to explain why take-up rates remain so low. Re-searchers measured take-up of a microinsurance product that protects farmers in Andhra Pradesh, India, against too little or too much rainfall. The researchers assigned a sample of potential clients to receive various offers and information about the product. Each offer or information set was de-signed to isolate one possible cause of low take-up: the price of the policy, the availability of cash in the household to purchase the policy, the under-standing of rainfall measurements by the potential client, the level of trust of the potential client to-ward the insurance scheme or the insurance mar-keting agent, and the framing of the information describing the insurance. As expected, the price of the insurance policy is a strong determinant of whether households buy the product. Take-up increased by 10.4 percent on average (from an overall average of 24–29 percent) when the premium decreased by 10 percent. Price, however, is not the only determinant of demand. In Cole et al.’s survey, “lack of available funds” was the most commonly cited reason for not purchasing in-surance. Potential clients may also lack information about and understanding of how formal insurance works. However, Cole et al. show that receiving additional information about the product did not cause an in-crease in take-up. Finally, lack of trust in the insurance provider may be another reason why poor households do not buy policies. To measure whether trust is indeed a significant driver of take-up, Cole et al. evaluated takeup of the insurance product when the market-ing team was accompanied on their visits to house-holds by an individual from Basix, a nongovern- 29. See also Karlan, McConnell, Mullainathan, and Zinman (2010). mental organization that the farmers know well,
  • 21. 19 versus when the team went out on its own. The re-searchers found that households that were visited by a marketer accompanied by a member of Basix were 10 percentage points more likely to purchase a policy, suggesting that trust is a significant issue. While far from providing a complete picture, these studies together do provide a more nuanced and precise set of information on how to better de-sign, price, and market microinsurance products so that the supply of products for poor clients can meet the real need in a cost-effective manner. Conclusion While still based on a relatively small number of studies, the work of researchers and participating microfinance providers is bringing new knowledge about how clients use capital, what helps them to save, and what constraints they face that prevent them from benefiting more from financial access. The overall message from this body of work is that poor people face various limits, and their ability to capitalize on opportunities varies greatly. One of the next steps is to find simple ways to identify those differences and cater to them with the right products delivered with the right design. Details matter. Purpose does as well—not all bor-rowers want to grow a business. The variable results seen can be as much a function of borrower intent as borrower ability. A one-size-fits-all product will not bring benefit to the borrowers or profit to the provid-ers. Instead, the microfinance industry needs to con-tinue to mature in ways that allow it to view poor customers as individuals. Some of those individuals will leverage financial services to smooth consump-tion; some to manage risk; some to make investments they have the skill and resources to profit from; some will do all of the above. With a view of serving all of these needs, microfinance providers may evolve a new generation of improved services and products that reliably and flexibly help poor people.
  • 22. Annex 1 Researchers Location Financial Service Intervention Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, India microcredit Researchers evaluate the impact of access to credit by randomizing Rachel Glennerster, and the placement of new Spandana MFI branches in Hyderabad, India. Cynthia Kinnan (2010) Lasse Brune, Xavier Giné, Malawi microsavings Researchers evaluate whether commitment devices can reduce self- Jessica Goldberg, and control problems and cash demands from social networks. Farmers Dean Yang (2011) were randomly assigned to receive either assistance to open an ordinary savings account, or to open an ordinary account with a commitment device. Shawn Cole, Xavier Giné, India microinsurance Researchers investigate the importance of price and nonprice Jeremy Tobacman, Petia determinants in the demand for rainfall insurance by randomly Topalova, Robert Townsend, varying the price of the insurance policy, randomly assigning certain and James Vickery (2011) households’ positive liquidity shocks, or randomly assigning endorse-ments 20 by a trusted agent. Other experiments test the role of financial literacy, product framing, and other behavioral biases. Bruno Crépon, Florencia Devoto, Morocco microcredit Researchers evaluate the impact of access to credit in a rural setting Esther Duflo, and William by randomizing the placement of new Al Amana MFI branches in Pariente (2011) Morocco. Alejandro Drexler, Greg Fischer, Dominican financial literacy/ Researchers evaluate the impact of financial literacy training on and Antoinette Schoar (2011) Republic business training business outcomes for small enterprises in the Dominican Republic. Two methods of financial literacy training are tested: (1) classic accounting principles, and (2) simple accounting “rules of thumb.” Esther Duflo, Michael Kremer, Kenya return to capital/ Researchers measure the rates of return for different quantities of and Jonathan Robinson (2008) inputs fertilizer used on crops in Kenya. Esther Duflo, Michael Kremer, Kenya commitment device Researchers evaluate an intervention to test whether providing and Jonathan Robinson (2010) mechanisms to save harvest income for future fertilizer purchases could be effective in increasing fertilizer use among farmers. Pascaline Dupas and Kenya microsavings Researchers investigate the importance of savings constraints for Jonathan Robinson (2011) microenterprise development by randomly providing small business owners in Kenya with access to savings accounts. Erica Field, Rohini Pande, India microcredit Researchers investigate how the term structure of debt influences John Papp, and Natalie entrepreneurship among the poor. Borrowers were randomly assigned Rigol (2010) either the classic microfinance contract with repayment beginning immediately after loan disbursement or a contract that provides a two- month grace period prior to repayment. Xavier Giné, Jessica Goldberg, Malawi microcredit Researchers evaluate the impact of an improved personal identification and Dean Yang (2011) system on loan repayment. Randomly selected borrowers who applied for loans for agricultural inputs in rural Malawi had fingerprints collected as a part of the loan application process.
  • 23. 21 Main Findings Paper No discernible impact on measures of health, education, and female empowerment. The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a More businesses were created. While some households increased nondurable Randomized Evaluation consumption, others reduced expenditure on temptation goods, such as alcohol, tobacco, tea, and snacks, and instead invested in their businesses, or bought more durable goods. The commitment treatment had a large positive effect on the amounts of deposits and Commitments to Save: A Field Experiment in withdrawals made immediately prior to the planting season and a positive effect on Rural Malawi agricultural input use, leading to a 22 percent increase in the value of the crop output, and a 17 percent increase in total household expenditure. Farmers who had access only to the ordinary account showed lower or nonsignificant impacts on the same outcomes. Insurance did not increase the use of inputs or change allocation of land, but having Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence access to rainfall insurance did cause farmers to shift toward more risky, rain-sensitive from India crops, which typically provide higher profit. No discernible impact on measures of health, education, and female empowerment. Impact of Microcredit in Rural Areas of Morocco: For individuals with existing farming activities, access to credit increased the volume Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation of activity. Microcredit had no impact on nonagricultural businesses. Those with an existing business at the start of the study reduced consumption and considerably increased savings. But for those without prior business activities, consumption increased. Business owners who received the rules-of-thumb training applied sound accounting Keeping It Simple: Financial Literacy and Rules of principles more than their peers. Those who received the rules-of-thumb training also Thumb earned more revenues than their peers, especially during “bad” weeks. Farmers earn much stronger yields by using fertilizer at specific points during the How High are Rates of Return to Fertilizer? growing season. The annualized return to half a teaspoon of fertilizer at top dressing Evidence from Field Experiments in Kenya (when the maize plant is knee high) was almost 70 percent per year. The commitment device offering an opportunity to buy a voucher for fertilizer but with Nudging Farmers to Use Fertilizer: Theory and free delivery early in the season increased fertilizer use by 47 to 70 percent. The effect Experimental Evidence from Kenya of the commitment device early in the season was greater than other offers, such as free delivery later in the season, and a 50 percent subsidy also offered later in the season. Access to formal savings accounts for market stallholders led to increased business Savings Constraints and Microenterprise investment and personal income growth. Four to six months after account opening, Development: Evidence from a Field Experiment in women in the treatment group had a 4.5 percent higher daily investment in their Kenya businesses than women in the comparison group. There was was no measurable impact for men in the study. Several categories of expenditures were higher for women in the treatment group. Savings accounts also seemed to make women somewhat less vulnerable to health shocks. The grace period group members invested 6 percent more of their loans in their Term Structure of Debt and Entrepreneurial Behavior: businesses than borrowers who received no grace period, and two years after the loans Experimental Evidence from Microfinance were given, they had 30 percent higher average profits. Household income was also higher. However, the average result masks significant variation within the grace period group: some of the women did really well, while others suffered losses. Nineteen percent of the individuals in the grace period group ultimately defaulted on their loans compared with 2 percent default for the individuals with the standard repayment structure. As a result of the fingerprinting intervention, borrowers predicted to be least likely to Credit Market Consequences of Improved Personal repay showed a significant change in behavior. Fingerprinted borrowers in this group Identification: Field Experimental Evidence from took smaller loans when they knew they could be identified, and were more likely to Malawi repay their loans on time as well as eventually, compared to equivalent borrowers in the comparison group.
  • 24. Annex 1, continued Researchers Location Financial Service Intervention Xavier Giné, Lev Menand, India microinsurance Researchers summarize results of previous research on rainfall Robert Townsend, and James insurance markets in India, which provides evidence that price, Vickery (2010) liquidity constraints, and trust all present significant barriers to increased take-up. Xavier Giné and Philippines microcredit Researchers investigate whether group liability is in fact necessary Dean Karlan (2011) for managing default risk. In one treatment, existing group-lending clients of the Green Bank of Caraga were randomly converted to an individual liability model. In a second treatment, new borrowers 22 started out with individual liability loans. Dean Karlan, Edward Kutsoati, Ghana microsavings Researchers evaluated the impact of a new type of “labeled” savings Margaret McConnell, Margaret account that was intended to help clients save by focusing their attention McMillan, and Christopher on their savings goals. Existing clients of the Mumuada Rural Bank Udry (forthcoming) in Eastern Ghana were asked about their savings goals, and some were given the opportunity to open separate, parallel savings accounts labeled “education,” “business,” “housing,” or some other category. Dean Karlan, Margaret Peru, Bolivia, microsavings Researchers measure the effectiveness of sending savings reminders McConnell, Sendhil Philippines in the form of letters (in Peru) or SMS text messages (in Bolivia and Mullainathan, and Jonathan the Philippines) to clients holding programmed savings accounts. Zinman (2011) Dean Karlan, Isaac Osei-Akoto, Ghana microinsurance Researchers investigate the role of risk in constraining farmer Robert Osei, and Chris Udry investment and technology adoption choices, and to evaluate its (forthcoming) importance relative to constraints on credit, by coupling rainfall insurance with cash grants. Dean Karlan and Peru financial literacy/ Researchers evaluate the marginal impact of adding business Martin Valdivia (2011) business training training to a group lending program in Peru. Dean Karlan and South Africa microcredit Researchers estimate the effects of expanding access to expensive Jonathan Zinman (2010) consumer credit in South Africa by randomizing loan approval for clients identified by the cooperating lender as being marginally creditworthy. Dean Karlan and Philippines microcredit Researchers evaluate the impact of increasing access to credit in the Jonathan Zinman (2011) Philippines by randomizing loan approval for clients identified as marginally creditworthy. Suresh de Mel, Sri Lanka return to capital/inputs To evaluate whether there are high returns to capital for micro- David McKenzie, and enterprises, researchers randomize the provision of cash and equipment Christopher Woodruff (2008) grants to small firms in Sri Lanka, and measure the increase in profits arising from exogenous (positive) shock to capital stock. Marcel Fafchamps, Ghana return to capital/inputs Researchers evaluate the differential effects of providing either cash David McKenzie, grants or in-kind grants of inventory or equipment on both male and Christopher Woodruff, female entrepreneurs. and Simon Quinn (2011)
  • 25. 23 Main Findings Paper Preliminary results indicate that insurance does not increase the use of inputs or Microinsurance: A Case Study of the Indian change the allocation of land, although having access to rainfall insurance does Rainfall Index Insurance Market cause farmers to shift toward more risky, rain-sensitive crops, which typically provide higher profit. The shift to individual liability did not negatively affect loan repayment for either group. Group versus Individual Liability: Short and Long- The bank also saw an increase in outreach, as more customers, attracted by the Term Evidence from Philippine Microcredit Lending individual liability option, sought loans from the bank. Groups Savers eligible to open parallel accounts saved 31 percent more on average than those in the comparison group, with the greatest effect seen for the accounts labelled “Education.” Reminders increased average savings balances overall by 6 percent. This impact Getting to the Top of Mind: How Reminders Increase increased substantially, to 16 percent, for the Peruvian savers when the reminder Saving referred to a purchase goal. Farmers who receive both insurance and capital (i.e., subsidizing the purchase) Examining Underinvestment in Agriculture: increased their spending on farm chemical inputs by 47 percent, increased their Measuring Returns to Capital and Insurance cultivation area by 22 percent, and were less likely to have members of their household miss meals than the comparison group. Farmers who received insurance changed only some of their farming decisions, but to a lower extent than those who had the capital also. The results found positive impacts from business training. Teaching Entrepreneurship: Impact of Business Training on Microfinance Clients and Institutions Expanding access to credit increased borrower well-being: incomes increased, food Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply consumption went up, and measures of decision-making within the household Decisions to Estimate the Impacts went up, alongside community status and overall optimism. Net borrowing increased in the treatment group relative to the comparison. However, Microcredit in Theory and Practice: Using the number of business activities and employees in the treatment group decreased Randomized Credit Scoring for Impact Evaluation relative to the comparison, and subjective well-being declined slightly. However, microloans increased ability to cope with risk, strengthened community ties, and increased access to informal credit. The average real return to capital was 5.7 percent per month—substantially higher than Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from the market interest rate. Returns varied with measures of ability, household liquidity, a Field Experiment and the gender of the owner (men fared better than women). Cash grants to women entrepreneurs produced no return on capital, whereas in-kind When Is Capital Enough to Get Female Enterprises gifts of inventory or equipment to women showed a significant average return. When Growing? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment given cash, women invested less of the gift in the business, splitting off pieces for in Ghana household purchases or other expenses. The high returns from in-kind gifts came entirely from the women who had larger, higher profit businesses at the outset. Women with below-average profits (around $1 a day) saw no benefit in terms of profit from either form of grant. Men-owned businesses, on the other hand, saw signficant returns from both the in-kind grants and the cash grants.
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