chap018 (1).ppt
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This document provides an overview of key concepts in international financial management, including exchange rates, purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, exchange rate risk, and political risk. It defines important terminology, outlines the chapter, and provides examples to illustrate international finance concepts like triangular arbitrage, covered interest arbitrage, and hedging exchange rate risk. The document is from a textbook chapter on international aspects of financial management.
![1-12
18-12
12
Relative Purchasing Power Parity
• Provides information about what causes
changes in exchange rates
• The basic result is that exchange rates
depend on relative inflation between
countries
• E(St ) = S0[1 + (hFC – hUS)]t
• Because absolute PPP doesn’t hold for
many goods, we will focus on relative
PPP from here on](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/chap0181-230221114807-d4af39a8/85/chap018-1-ppt-13-320.jpg)
![1-13
18-13
13
Example: PPP
• Suppose the Canadian spot exchange rate is
1.18 Canadian dollars per U.S. dollar. U.S.
inflation is expected to be 3% per year and
Canadian inflation is expected to be 2%.
– Do you expect the U.S. dollar to appreciate or
depreciate relative to the Canadian dollar?
• Since expected inflation is higher in the U.S., we would
expect the U.S. dollar to depreciate relative to the
Canadian dollar.
– What is the expected exch. rate in one year?
• E(S1) = 1.18[1 + (.02 - .03)]1 = 1.1682](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/chap0181-230221114807-d4af39a8/85/chap018-1-ppt-14-320.jpg)
chap018 (1).ppt
- 1. Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin 0 Chapter 18 International Aspects of Financial Management
- 2. 1-1 18-1 1 Key Concepts and Skills • Understand how exchange rates are quoted and what they mean • Know the difference between spot and forward rates • Understand purchasing power parity and interest rate parity and the implications for changes in exchange rates • Understand the types of exchange rate risk and how it can be managed • Understand the impact of political risk on international business investing
- 3. 1-2 18-2 2 Chapter Outline • Terminology • Foreign Exchange Markets and Exchange Rates • Purchasing Power Parity • Exchange Rates and Interest Rates • Exchange Rate Risk • Political Risk
- 4. 1-3 18-3 3 Domestic Financial Management and International Financial Management • Considerations in International Financial Management – Have to consider the effect of exchange rates when operating in more than one currency – Have to consider the political risk associated with actions of foreign governments – More financing opportunities when you consider the international capital markets and this may reduce the firm’s cost of capital
- 5. 1-4 18-4 4 International Finance Terminology • American Depositary Receipt (ADR) • Cross-rate • Eurobond • Eurocurrency (Eurodollars) • Foreign bonds • Gilts • London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) • Swaps
- 6. 1-5 18-5 5 Global Capital Markets • The number of exchanges in foreign countries continues to increase, as does the liquidity on those exchanges • Exchanges that facilitate the flow of capital are extremely important to developing countries • The United States has one of the most developed capital markets in the world, but foreign markets are becoming more competitive, and they are often willing to try more innovative ways to do business
- 7. 1-6 18-6 6 Example: Work the Web • Thinking about going to Mexico for spring break or Japan for your summer vacation? • How many pesos or yen can you get in exchange for $1,000? • Click on the Web surfer to find out
- 8. 1-7 18-7 7 Exchange Rates • The price of one country’s currency in terms of another • Most currency is quoted in terms of dollars • Consider the following quote: – Euro 1.34922 .74117 – The first number (1.34922) is how many U.S. dollars it takes to buy 1 euro – The second number (. 74117) is how many euros it takes to buy U.S.$1 – The two numbers are reciprocals of each other (1/. 74117 = 1.34922)
- 9. 1-8 18-8 8 Example: Exchange Rates • Suppose you have $10,000 . Based on the rates in Figure 18.1, how many Norwegian Krone can you buy? – Exchange rate = 6.2461 Krone per U.S. dollar – Buy 10,000(6.2461) = 62,461 Krone • Suppose you are visiting London and you want to buy a souvenir that costs 1,000 British pounds. How much does it cost in U.S. dollars? – Exchange rate = $1.9669 dollars per pound – Cost = 1,000 X 1.9669 = $1,966.90
- 10. 1-9 18-9 9 Example: Triangle Arbitrage • We observe the following fictitious quotes: – 1 Euro per $1 – 2 Swiss Franc per $1 – .4 Euro per 1 Swiss Franc • What is the cross rate? – (1 Euro / $1) / (2 SF / $1) = .5 Euro / SF • We have $100 to invest; buy low, sell high – Buy $100(1 Euro/$1) = 100 Euro, use Euro to buy SF – Buy 100 Euro / (.4 Euro / 1 SF) = 250 SF, use SF to buy dollars – Buy 250 SF / (2 SF/$1) = $125 – Make $25 risk-free
- 11. 1-10 18-10 10 Transaction Terminology • Spot trade – exchange currency immediately – Spot rate – the exchange rate for an immediate trade • Forward trade – agree today to exchange currency at some future date and some specified price (also called a forward contract) – Forward rate – the exchange rate specified in the forward contract – If the forward rate is higher than the spot rate, the foreign currency is selling at a premium (when quoted as $ equivalents) – If the forward rate is lower than the spot rate, the foreign currency is selling at a discount
- 12. 1-11 18-11 11 Absolute Purchasing Power Parity • Price of an item is the same regardless of the currency used to purchase it • Requirements for absolute PPP to hold – Transaction costs are zero – No barriers to trade (no taxes, tariffs, etc.) – No difference in the commodity between locations • Absolute PPP rarely holds in practice for many goods
- 13. 1-12 18-12 12 Relative Purchasing Power Parity • Provides information about what causes changes in exchange rates • The basic result is that exchange rates depend on relative inflation between countries • E(St ) = S0[1 + (hFC – hUS)]t • Because absolute PPP doesn’t hold for many goods, we will focus on relative PPP from here on
- 14. 1-13 18-13 13 Example: PPP • Suppose the Canadian spot exchange rate is 1.18 Canadian dollars per U.S. dollar. U.S. inflation is expected to be 3% per year and Canadian inflation is expected to be 2%. – Do you expect the U.S. dollar to appreciate or depreciate relative to the Canadian dollar? • Since expected inflation is higher in the U.S., we would expect the U.S. dollar to depreciate relative to the Canadian dollar. – What is the expected exch. rate in one year? • E(S1) = 1.18[1 + (.02 - .03)]1 = 1.1682
- 15. 1-14 18-14 14 Covered Interest Arbitrage • Examine the relationship between spot rates, forward rates, and nominal rates between countries • Again, the formulas will assume that the exchange rates are quoted in terms of foreign currency per U.S. dollar • The U.S. risk-free rate is assumed to be the T-bill rate
- 16. 1-15 18-15 15 Example: Covered Interest Arbitrage • Consider the following information – S0 = .8 Euro / $ RUS = 4% – F1 = .7 Euro / $ RE = 2% • What is the arbitrage opportunity? – Borrow $100 at 4% – Buy $100(.8 Euro/$) = 80 Euro and invest at 2% for 1 year – In 1 year, receive 80(1.02) = 81.6 Euro and convert back to dollars – 81.6 Euro / (.7 Euro / $) = $116.57 and repay loan – Profit = 116.57 – 100(1.04) = $12.57 risk free
- 17. 1-16 18-16 16 Interest Rate Parity • Based on the previous example, there must be a forward rate that would prevent the arbitrage opportunity. • Interest rate parity defines what that forward rate should be ) ( 1 : Approx. ) 1 ( ) 1 ( : Exact 0 1 0 1 US FC US FC R R S F R R S F
- 18. 1-17 18-17 17 Short-Run Exposure • Risk from day-to-day fluctuations in exchange rates and the fact that companies have contracts to buy and sell goods in the short-run at fixed prices • Managing risk – Enter into a forward agreement to guarantee the exchange rate – Use foreign currency options to lock in exchange rates if they move against you, but benefit from rates if they move in your favor
- 19. 1-18 18-18 18 Long-Run Exposure • Long-run fluctuations come from unanticipated changes in relative economic conditions • Could be due to changes in labor markets or governments • More difficult to hedge • Try to match long-run inflows and outflows in the currency • Borrowing in the foreign country may mitigate some of the problems
- 20. 1-19 18-19 19 Translation Exposure • Income from foreign operations has to be translated back to U.S. dollars for accounting purposes, even if foreign currency is not actually converted back to dollars • If gains and losses from this translation flowed through directly to the income statement, there would be significant volatility in EPS • Current accounting regulations require that all cash flows be converted at the prevailing exchange rates with currency gains and losses accumulated in a special account within shareholders’ equity
- 21. 1-20 18-20 20 Managing Exchange Rate Risk • Large multinational firms may need to manage the exchange rate risk associated with several different currencies • The firm needs to consider its net exposure to currency risk instead of just looking at each currency separately • Hedging individual currencies could be expensive and may actually increase exposure
- 22. 1-21 18-21 21 Political Risk • Changes in value due to political actions in the foreign country • Investment in countries that have unstable governments should require higher returns • The extent of political risk depends on the nature of the business – The more dependent the business is on other operations within the firm, the less valuable it is to others – Natural resource development can be very valuable to others, especially if much of the ground work in developing the resource has already been done • Local financing can often reduce political risk
- 23. 1-22 18-22 22 Quick Quiz • What does an exchange rate tell us? • What is triangle arbitrage? • What are absolute purchasing power parity and relative purchasing power parity? • What are covered interest arbitrage and interest rate parity? • What is the difference between short-run interest rate exposure and long-run interest rate exposure? How can you hedge each type? • What is political risk and what types of business face the greatest risk?
- 24. 1-23 18-23 23 Comprehensive Problem • Assume that one U.S. dollar buys 115 Japanese Yen, and one U.S. dollar buys .54 Pound Sterling. • What must the dollar – pound exchange rate be in order to prevent triangular arbitrage (ignore transaction costs)?