Chapter 1:
Risk Management: An Overview
Risk
• Risk is the chance or possibility of experiencing a negative outcome or loss.
• It represents the uncertainty about future events that could lead to
unfavorable results.
• Risk in the context of risk management refers to the potential for an event,
action, or outcome to result in a negative or unintended consequence.
• It is often defined as the uncertainty that surrounds future events and the
potential impacts that those events can have on an organization, project, or
system.
• For example, investing in the stock market carries risk because stock prices
can fluctuate, leading to potential gains or losses.
Key Components of Risk:
• Uncertainty:
Risk involves uncertainty about future events. We cannot know with certainty whether the event will
happen or what its impact will be, but we can assess the probability and potential consequences.
• Likelihood (Probability):
This refers to how likely it is that a particular risk will occur. It ranges from rare to almost certain,
often estimated through statistical analysis, historical data, or expert judgment.
• Impact (Severity):
The potential consequences of the risk if it materializes. This can be measured in terms of financial
loss, damage to reputation, operational disruption, or even loss of life, depending on the context.
• Risk Exposure:
The combination of both the likelihood and impact of a risk gives an organization its risk exposure.
High-likelihood, high-impact risks pose the greatest exposure, while low-likelihood, low-impact
risks pose the least.
Risk Management
• Risk management is a series of actions designed to minimize the
possibility of loss for an organization or individual.
• It involves identifying potential risks, analyzing them, and
deciding whether to accept or mitigate them.
Role of a Risk Manager:
• A risk manager is responsible for understanding potential risks
in investment decisions.
• Their goal is to make informed decisions that balance potential
losses with investment objectives and risk tolerance.
• They work to quantify the risk by analyzing data and predicting the
likelihood and impact of potential losses.
Risk Tolerance and Investment:
Risk Tolerance:
• Risk tolerance is how much risk an individual or company is willing to take in the pursuit of financial
gains.
• Companies and individuals must determine how much risk they are willing to take based on their
goals, current financial status, and personal comfort levels.
• For example, risk-averse investors, like conservative individuals, have a low tolerance for risk.
They prioritize stability over potential high returns, opting for safer investments with little volatility.
Risk-Taking:
• On the other hand, risk-takers actively take on additional risks, hoping to gain more significant
returns.
• They understand that taking bigger risks may lead to higher rewards, but also comes with a higher
potential for loss.
• This is common in industries like technology, where companies invest in innovative projects that
could either be a huge success or fail.
Financial Risk
• Financial risk refers to the possibility of a company or individual losing money due to various
business activities or external factors.
• The key idea is that financial risk affects the organization's profitability, planning, and ability to meet
its financial goals.
• Financial risk comes from various business activities and transactions.
• Other sources include changes in the energy costs, actions of management, or external factors like
competitors, foreign governments, and even weather conditions.
sales loans mergers,
acquisitions
investments new projects debt
Key Sources of Financial Risk:
• Business Activities and Transactions:
▫ Financial risk can arise from routine activities such as buying raw materials, selling products, or managing
investments.
▫ Every transaction involves a level of uncertainty in terms of costs, revenues, or market demand.
• Energy Costs:
▫ Changes in the cost of energy can directly impact production costs for companies.
▫ For example, if oil prices increase, transportation and production costs might rise, which could affect a company’s
profitability.
• Management Decisions:
▫ Financial risks can also come from the decisions made by a company’s management, such as entering new markets
or taking on new debt.
▫ Poor decision-making can increase risk by making the company more vulnerable to financial losses.
• External Factors:
▫ Competitors, foreign governments, and even weather conditions are external factors that can introduce financial
risk.
▫ For instance, new regulations by a foreign government could restrict exports, affecting revenue streams.
Impact of Financial Risk:
• Sharp Fluctuations in Financial Prices:
▫ Sudden and significant changes in financial prices, like the stock market
or foreign exchange rates, can increase the costs for a business.
▫ For example, if the price of raw materials suddenly rises, a company might
have to spend more to produce its goods, lowering its profit margins.
• Revenue Impact:
▫ Changes in financial prices can reduce the revenue a company earns,
making it harder to maintain profitability.
▫ This is particularly true for industries with high volatility, such as
commodities or finance.
How Financial Risk Complicates Business Operations:
• Challenges in Planning:
▫ Financial risk makes long-term planning difficult because companies cannot predict costs or revenues with complete
certainty.
▫ For instance, if a company cannot accurately forecast the price of raw materials, it becomes challenging to set long-
term financial goals.
• Complications in Budgeting:
▫ Businesses have to constantly adjust their budgets to account for unforeseen changes in costs or revenues.
▫ This means they might have to cut expenses in other areas, delaying important projects or reducing investments.
• Pricing:
▫ If costs are unpredictable, companies might struggle to set prices for their products or services that cover their
expenses and deliver a profit.
▫ In highly competitive markets, this could lead to a pricing war, further complicating the financial stability of the
business.
• Capital Allocation:
▫ Financial risk can force companies to re-evaluate where they invest their money.
▫ They might delay expansion plans or reduce capital allocated to new projects if they are uncertain about future
profitability.
Types of Financial Risk:
• Market Risk:
▫ This type of risk arises from fluctuations in market prices, including interest rates, exchange
rates, and commodity prices.
• It is a type of risk associated with the market as a whole rather than with individual stocks or business sectors.
• Market risk, also called “systematic risk” cannot be eliminated through diversification, though it can be hedged
against in other ways.
▫ Example:
 If interest rates rise unexpectedly, companies that rely on borrowing may face higher costs, which
could hurt profitability.
 Similarly, a change in exchange rates could increase the costs of imported goods for a company,
impacting their financial stability.
▫ How to Manage: Companies can hedge against market risk by using financial instruments
like options or forward contracts to lock in prices.
Types of market risk
1. Interest rate risk
2. Equity price risk
3. Foreign exchange risk
4. Commodity price risk
Interest rate risk
• Interest rate risk is the likelihood that an investment's value will change as a
result of fluctuations in interest rates. This risk is particularly relevant for
fixed-income investments like bonds, where the interest (coupon) payments
are fixed.
• If interest rates rise: The prices of existing bonds (or other fixed-income
securities) fall. This happens because new bonds issued after the rate hike
will offer higher interest payments (yields), making the older, lower-yielding
bonds less attractive to investors.
• If interest rates fall: The prices of existing bonds typically rise because
these bonds offer higher interest payments than new bonds being issued at
the lower rate.
Examples of Interest Rate Risk
• Bonds and Interest Rate Changes: Imagine you buy a bond for $1,000 that pays a fixed annual
interest rate (or coupon) of 5%, meaning you’ll earn $50 each year. Now, assume that a year later,
interest rates in the economy rise to 6%. New bonds are now being issued that pay $60 annually for
the same $1,000 investment. Since your bond only pays $50, it becomes less attractive to buyers in
the market. To sell your bond, you’d likely have to lower the price, causing a loss in value.
• Banks and Loans: Interest rate risk also affects banks. For example, if a bank issues long-term
loans at a fixed interest rate (e.g., mortgages) and then the central bank raises interest rates, the
bank will have to pay more on the deposits it holds but will still be earning the same lower interest
on those fixed-rate loans. This squeezes the bank’s profit margins and exposes it to interest rate risk.
• Mortgages: If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, a rise in interest rates won't affect your payments
because they are locked in. However, if you have a variable-rate mortgage, your interest payments
would increase when interest rates rise, leading to higher monthly payments and possibly affecting
your ability to afford the mortgage.
Impact on Different Sectors
• Banks and Financial Institutions: Banks are significantly affected by interest rate risk because their
primary business involves borrowing and lending at different interest rates. An increase in rates might
reduce lending activity and profitability.
• Pension Funds and Insurance Companies: These entities invest heavily in bonds to meet future
liabilities. Interest rate risk can affect their ability to meet these obligations.
How to Mitigate Interest Rate Risk?
1. Diversification
• Diversify the portfolio by adding securities whose value is less prone to interest rate fluctuations (e.g., equity).
• Diversify the bond only portfolio by including a mix of short-term and long-term bonds.
2. Hedging
• The interest rate risk can also be mitigated through various hedging strategies.
• These strategies generally include the purchase of different types of derivatives. The most common examples
include interest rate swaps, options, futures, and forward rate agreements.
Types of Market Risk
Equity Price Risk
• Equity price risk is the risk of financial loss resulting from changes in the price of equity.
• It refers to the potential for the market value of an investment in equities to decline due to factors like
market volatility, economic conditions, company performance, or changes in investor sentiment.
• Essentially, it is the risk that the value of a stock or equity portfolio will decrease, potentially leading to
losses for the investor or firm holding the equity.
Foreign exchange risk
• Foreign exchange risk occurs when the value of one currency changes relative to another.
• It affects companies that conduct international business (e.g., importing/exporting goods or services)
and investors with foreign assets or investments.
• Managing foreign exchange risk is critical for companies and investors involved in global markets, and
strategies such as hedging with currency derivatives (e.g., futures, options, or forward contracts) are
often used to mitigate this risk.
Types of Market Risk
Commodity
A commodity is a basic, interchangeable good or raw material, used in the production of
other goods or services. (e.g.., precious metals, base metals, agricultural products, energy).
Commodity price risk
• Commodity price risk is the risk of financial loss due to fluctuations in the prices of commodities,
such as oil, gas, metals, agricultural products, or raw materials.
• This type of risk affects businesses, investors, and economies that are exposed to commodities, either
through direct investments or because their business operations depend on buying, selling, or
processing commodities.
• Price volatility can result from various factors, including supply and demand dynamics,
geopolitical events, weather conditions, economic trends, or market speculation.
Credit Risk
• This risk comes from the possibility that one party in a transaction (such as a customer,
vendor, or another company) will fail to meet its financial obligations.
• It also arises if there is an increasing risk of default by the counterparty throughout the duration of
the contract
• Example:
▫ If a customer cannot pay for the products they have purchased, it poses a credit risk to the
company.
▫ This could also happen with vendors or if a company deals with complex financial
instruments like derivatives.
• How to Manage: To manage credit risk, companies can assess the creditworthiness of
their partners before entering into a transaction. They may also use credit insurance or
diversify their customer base to minimize the impact of any single customer’s default.
Types of credit risk
1. Default risk
2. Bankruptcy risk
3. Downgrade risk
4. Settlement risk
Types of credit risk
Default Risk
• Default risk refers to the possibility that a borrower (such as a company or individual) will be unable to make the required
payments on their debt, such as interest or principal, when they are due.
• This risk is concerned solely with the borrower’s inability to make timely payments. A default might happen on a single
debt or payment but does not necessarily mean the company is bankrupt.
• A default can lead to penalties, an increase in borrowing costs, or even renegotiation of terms but does not always result in
bankruptcy or insolvency.
• To mitigate the impact of default risk, lenders often charge rates of return that correspond the debtor's level of default risk.
• A higher level of risk leads to a higher required return.
Bankruptcy Risk/ Insolvency Risk
• This occurs when a firm is unable to generate sufficient cash flow or income to service its debt, leading to potential
insolvency.
• It involves taking possession of any collateral provided by the defaulting counterparty.
• Credit rating agencies like Moody's and Standard & Poor's evaluate the likelihood of this risk by assigning bond ratings to
companies based on their financial health and creditworthiness.
Types of credit risk
• Downgrade Risk
• It arises when a credit rating agency lowers the rating of a security due to perceived deterioration in
its financial health.
• Example: A downgrade from Standard & Poor’s from a B rating to a CCC rating indicates increased
risk.
• This downgrade occurs when analysts believe the future outlook for the security has weakened
compared to initial expectations.
• Creditors may charge higher interest rates to the downgraded entity to compensate for the added risk.
Settlement Risk
• Settlement risk, also known as "delivery risk," occurs when one party in a financial
transaction fulfills its side of the contract, but the other party fails to meet their obligation.
• This is most common in the settlement of payments, securities, or foreign exchange
transactions.
• Essentially, it is the risk that a counterparty will not deliver the promised asset or payment
as expected, leading to potential financial loss for the party that has already performed its
part of the deal.
Operational Risk
• This risk stems from failures within the company itself, including
people, processes, or systems.
• Example:
▫ If a company’s financial system fails due to a technical issue or human
error, it can lead to significant financial losses or regulatory penalties.
▫ A common example is when fraud occurs due to weak internal
controls.
• How to Manage: To minimize operational risk, companies should
focus on improving their internal processes, conducting regular
audits, and investing in employee training to prevent errors.
Liquidity and Business Risk
Liquidity risk
• Liquidity risk refers to the possibility that a financial institution, company, or investor may be unable
to meet their short-term financial liabilities due to an inability to quickly convert assets into cash
without incurring significant losses.
• This risk arises when there is insufficient market liquidity, meaning assets cannot be sold at their fair
value, or the entity cannot raise enough cash to fulfill obligations like debt payments, potentially
leading to default.
Business risk
• It is the potential for a company to experience lower profits or even financial losses due to various
internal or external factors that affect its operations.
• It can be caused by internal issues (e.g., poor management, production problems) or external factors
(e.g., economic downturns, regulatory changes, competition).
• Business risk is inherent to the operation of any company and reflects the uncertainties that could
impact its ability to achieve its financial goals.
• Managing business risk involves identifying potential threats and planning strategies to mitigate them.
Legal and regulatory risk
• Legal and regulatory risk refers to the potential for financial loss or operational disruption that arises from
changes in laws, regulations, or legal actions taken against a company.
• This type of risk can stem from non-compliance with existing laws, new regulations, litigation, or legal challenges that
affect the company's ability to operate effectively.
• Companies are required to follow laws and regulations that govern their industry.
• Any changes in these rules can disrupt operations, leading to increased costs, legal challenges, or even the inability to
continue certain business activities.
Example:
• Tax Policy Reforms: Changes in tax laws can increase a company's tax burden or alter the incentives available,
affecting profitability.
• Minimum Wage Laws: New minimum wage laws may increase labor costs, impacting a company's expenses and
bottom line.
Reputational risk is the risk of damage to a company's reputation, which can result in financial loss, loss of customers,
or a decrease in shareholder value.
• This risk arises from negative public perception, bad publicity, scandals, or failure to meet stakeholder expectations,
which can harm the trust and credibility of the business.
• The rise of social media and online platforms can quickly spread rumors or negative news, making it harder for
companies to manage their public image.
Strategic risk
• Strategic risk is the potential for a company's strategy to fail or underperform, leading to financial losses or
reduced competitive advantage. It arises from poor strategic decisions, inadequate resource allocation, changes in
market dynamics, or failure to respond effectively to competition, technology, or other external factors.
1. Entering a New Market: A company decides to expand into an international market without properly
understanding the local consumer preferences, regulatory environment, or competition. As a result, the expansion fails,
leading to significant financial losses.
2. New Product Launch: A company invests heavily in developing a new product, but the product doesn’t meet
customer needs or is quickly outcompeted by rivals. This could result in wasted resources and damage to the company’s
brand.
3. Failure to Adapt to Technology: A traditional retail company fails to invest in e-commerce and digital platforms
while its competitors capitalize on online sales. This could lead to declining market share and lost revenue as customer
preferences shift towards online shopping.
4. Mergers and Acquisitions: A company acquires another business, expecting synergy and growth. However,
cultural clashes, operational inefficiencies, or overvaluation of the acquired company lead to poor integration and
reduced profitability.
Financial Risk Management Process
• Financial risk management is the process of identifying, assessing, and controlling the risks that arise
from financial markets and business activities.
• It aims to handle uncertainties in a way that aligns with an organization's goals and policies.
The risk management process involves the following five steps
1. Identify the risks
• Evaluating organization's exposure to uncertain events that could impact its day to day operations.
• These risks could come from market fluctuations, credit issues, operational failures, or other sources.
2. Determine an Appropriate Level of Risk Tolerance
• Risk tolerance refers to the amount of risk an organization is willing to accept in pursuit of its
objectives.
• Determining this involves evaluating the organization’s capacity to handle risk and deciding how
much risk is acceptable given its financial situation, goals, and regulatory requirements.
• An organization with a high risk tolerance might be more aggressive in its investment strategies, while
one with low risk tolerance might take a more conservative approach.
Financial Risk Management Process
• 3. Quantify risk and Perform a cost-benefit analysis on risk transfer methods.
Risk Transfer
• It involves contractual shifting of a pure risk from one party to another. There are two important ways to
transfer risk; insurance and derivatives.
▫ Insurance
It transfers a specific set of risks such as fire or flood risk of an asset.
• Derivatives
purchased by businesses as a hedge against financial risks such as exchange rate risk.
It is a financial product that derives its value from the value of an underlying asset.
• Compare the cost of risk transfer methods to the expected cost of the risk. If the cost of transferring is less
than the expected loss, it’s a good decision to transfer the risk.
• Once quantified, these risks need to be prioritized based on their potential impact and likelihood.
• This involves understanding which risks pose the greatest threat to the organization and focusing resources
on managing these higher-priority risks.
Financial Risk Management
4. Implement Risk Management Strategy in Accordance with Policy
• The next step is to implement strategies to manage those risks.
• The strategies should be in line with the organization’s policies and overall risk management framework.
Hedging:
• Hedging is a risk management strategy used to offset potential losses by taking an opposite position in a related asset
or investment. This way, if one investment loses value, the other can help balance out the loss.
• Risk Management Alternatives
• Do Nothing (Acceptance):
▫ Passive Acceptance: Choose to accept all risks as they are, without taking any specific action to mitigate them.
This approach is typically used when the cost of managing the risk outweighs the potential benefits.
• Hedge a Portion of Exposures:
▫ Partial Hedging: Determine which risks are significant enough to warrant hedging and implement strategies to
cover these specific exposures. For example, a company might use financial derivatives to hedge against currency
fluctuations or interest rate changes.
• Hedge All Exposures:
▫ Comprehensive Hedging: Apply hedging strategies to cover all identified risks. This might involve using
various financial instruments and strategies to protect against a wide range of risks.
Financial Risk Management
5. Measure, Report, Monitor, and Refine as Needed
• Risk management is not a one-time activity but an ongoing process.
• Organizations need to continuously measure and monitor their risk exposures and the
effectiveness of their risk management strategies.
• This involves regularly reviewing risk metrics, generating reports, and ensuring that risk
management practices are still relevant and effective.
• As market conditions, business environments, or organizational goals change, strategies may
need to be refined and adjusted.
Challenges to Risk Management Process
1. Identifying the Correct Risk:
• One of the biggest challenges in risk management is correctly identifying the risks that could significantly
impact a project or business. Misidentifying risks or overlooking important ones can lead to inadequate
preparation and increased exposure to potential losses.
2. Efficiently Transferring the Risk:
• Once a risk is identified, finding the most effective way to transfer or mitigate that risk can be difficult. This
could involve purchasing insurance, hedging strategies, or finding other means to shift the risk to another
party.
• The challenge lies in ensuring that the method chosen effectively reduces the risk without introducing new
vulnerabilities.
3. Ensuring Risk is Properly Dispersed:
• For a healthy economy, it’s essential that risks are spread out among multiple participants, rather than being
concentrated in the hands of a few.
• Proper dispersion means that risks are shared among those who are both willing and capable of handling
them, reducing the chances of catastrophic losses for any one party.
Challenges to Risk Management Process
Lessons from the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis:
• A notable failure of risk management occurred during the financial crisis of 2007-2009.
• It became evident that risk had been too concentrated among a small number of
participants in the financial system. When these key players suffered losses, the effects
rippled through the entire economy, leading to a global financial crisis.
4. Limitations of Risk Transfer:
• Risk management often involves one party transferring risk to another (such as through
insurance or financial instruments).
• However, this transfer doesn't eliminate the risk—it simply shifts it.
• If too many people or businesses take on large risks and then suffer losses, it can create
bigger problems across the entire economy.
• When many companies or individuals take on more risk than they can handle, it may lead
to a financial crisis, impacting not just the involved parties but the whole economic system.
Define
• A financial institution is an organization that provides financial services to individuals,
businesses, and governments.
• These institutions act as intermediaries, helping to manage the flow of money and provide
access to financial products such as loans, investments, deposits, and payment systems.
• Common types include banks, insurance companies, investment firms, brokerage firms.
• They play a critical role in the economy by helping individuals and businesses manage their
money, access credit, and invest in financial markets.
2007–2009 Financial Crisis
• The 2007–2009 Financial Crisis, also known as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), was a severe worldwide economic
crisis that began in the United States.
• It was triggered by the collapse of the housing market and the widespread failure of financial institutions.
• Key Causes
1. Subprime Mortgage Crisis:
• During the early 2000s, financial institutions started issuing *subprime mortgages*—home loans offered to
borrowers with low credit scores and unstable financial histories.
• These borrowers were considered risky because they were more likely to default on their loans.
• However, with rising housing prices, both lenders and borrowers believed the risks were manageable.
• A housing bubble occurred when the prices of homes rose rapidly to levels much higher than their actual value, driven
by high demand and easy access to credit. This increase in demand led to inflated home prices.
• The housing bubble burst when the demand for homes slowed, and many homeowners (especially subprime
borrowers) could no longer afford their mortgage payments.
• As more people defaulted on their loans, the supply of homes for sale increased, but there were fewer buyers. This
caused housing prices to fall sharply, or "burst."
• This triggered a sharp decline in housing prices and significantly impacted financial institutions exposed to the housing
market.
2007–2009 Financial Crisis
2. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS):
• Financial institutions didn’t hold onto the risky mortgages; instead, they *bundled* them
into financial products known as *mortgage-backed securities* (MBS).
• Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) are financial products created by bundling home
loans together into a pool and then selling shares of this pool to investors. When they buy
an MBS, they are essentially buying a share in the pool of mortgages.
• Investors receive regular payments from the interest and principal repayments made by
homeowners on their mortgages.
• By bundling these loans together, the risk was supposed to be spread out.
• However, because many of these loans were subprime (high-risk), the value of these
securities plummeted when borrowers began defaulting.
• The losses were felt not just by the lenders, but by investors around the world who had
bought these MBS products, leading to widespread financial instability.
2007–2009 Financial Crisis
3. Lehman Brothers Collapse:
• Lehman Brothers, one of the largest investment banks in the world,
heavily invested in mortgage-backed securities and other risky financial
products tied to the housing market.
• When these investments lost value, Lehman Brothers found itself unable to
cover its debts and declared *bankruptcy in September 2008*.
• This was a pivotal moment in the crisis because it shattered investor
confidence in the global financial system.
• Lehman’s collapse signaled that even large, well-established financial
institutions were vulnerable, leading to panic and a freeze in credit markets.
2007–2009 Financial Crisis
4. Lack of Regulation:
• A significant factor behind the financial crisis was the *lack of regulatory
oversight* of the financial industry.
• Financial institutions were allowed to engage in risky lending practices and
invest heavily in complex financial products like MBS without sufficient
supervision.
• Additionally, *credit rating agencies* gave high ratings to these risky
securities, misleading investors into believing they were safer than they
were.
• The absence of regulations and controls allowed the crisis to grow
unchecked, leaving the global financial system exposed to systemic risk.
2007–2009 Financial Crisis
Consequences:
• Bank Failures: Several major financial institutions failed or required government bailouts to avoid collapse.
A government bailout occurs when the government provides financial assistance to a struggling company,
industry, or sector to prevent its failure and avoid broader economic consequences.
• Global Recession: The financial crisis triggered a deep global recession, resulting in massive unemployment
and economic downturns in many countries.
• Government Intervention: Governments worldwide implemented emergency measures, including massive
stimulus packages and bailouts, to stabilize the economy and restore confidence in financial markets.
Massive stimulus packages refer to large-scale financial aid or economic programs provided by the
government to stimulate the economy during a crisis.
These packages are designed to increase spending and investment in order to boost economic activity, support
businesses, and protect jobs. They may include direct payments to citizens, tax cuts, and financial assistance to
struggling industries or businesses. The goal is to prevent or reduce the impact of a recession by encouraging
economic growth and restoring stability.
Concept Check
Q1. Which type of risk best describes a company that has weak
internal controls and doesn't properly separate job duties, making it
easy for someone to bypass or ignore these controls?
a)Business risk
b)Legal and regulatory risk
c)Operational risk
d)Strategic risk
Concept Check
Q2. Local Bank, Inc. (LBI) has extended a loan of $1 million to a private manufacturing
company called We Make It All (Make It). The loan is secured by a piece of land and the
accompanying building owned by Make It. Recently, due to an economic downturn, Make It has
reported its first loss in 10 years and is now facing cash flow problems. Additionally, the value
of the land and building held as collateral has been reassessed and is now appraised at only
$800,000. Based on this information, which of the following risks for LBI have increased?
a)Bankruptcy risk and default risk
b)Bankruptcy risk and settlement risk
c)Default risk and downgrade risk
d)Default risk, downgrade risk, and settlement risk
Answer
• Default risk has increased because the company is experiencing cash flow difficulties,
which could hinder its ability to make payments on the loan.
• Downgrade risk has increased due to the company's financial difficulties, which could lead
to a downgrade in its creditworthiness or the loan’s rating.
• Settlement risk: This risk does not directly apply to the situation, as it typically refers to
the failure to fulfill the terms of a financial transaction,
• Bankruptcy risk might eventually become a concern if the company's financial situation
continues to deteriorate, but based on the information provided, the focus is on the
immediate financial difficulties (cash flow) and the collateral devaluation, which
directly raise default and downgrade risks.
Concept Check
A popular fast-food chain decides to revamp its menu to focus on
healthier options. However, the change alienates many loyal
customers, and sales begin to decline.
• Question: What risk is the fast-food chain primarily facing due to
this strategic shift?
• A) Reputational Risk
• B) Market Risk
• C) Strategic Risk
• D) Credit Risk
Concept Check
• A large insurance company, SecureLife, recently upgraded its software system for managing customer
policies and claims processing. However, due to unexpected software bugs, the system crashes frequently,
causing significant delays in processing customer claims. Some customer data has been lost during these
crashes, and despite efforts to restore the information, the process has been slow and incomplete. As a
result, SecureLife is facing numerous customer complaints, and their service call center is overwhelmed.
Management is concerned that continued issues could lead to regulatory scrutiny or fines.
• Question: Which risk is SecureLife primarily facing due to the software failures?
A) Operational Risk and Reputational Risk
B) Operational Risk
C) Market Risk
D) Reputational Risk
E) Credit Risk
Concept Check
ABC Corporation, an energy company, heavily relies on oil futures contracts to
hedge against fluctuating oil prices. However, a global oil price war causes a
significant drop in oil prices. ABC Corporation now faces substantial losses due
to its exposure to futures contracts.
• Question: Which type of risk has increased for ABC Corporation due to the
significant drop in oil prices?
• A) Credit Risk
• B) Operational Risk
• C) Market Risk
• D) Liquidity Risk
Concept Check
A real estate development company holds a large portfolio of
commercial properties. Due to a sudden drop in market demand,
the company struggles to sell or lease its properties, leading to a
cash flow shortage and inability to meet its debt obligations.
• Question: What type of risk is the company primarily facing?
• A) Liquidity Risk
• B) Credit Risk
• C) Market Risk
• D) Reputational Risk
Concept Check
• A financial institution holds a portfolio of foreign currency-
denominated bonds. A sudden devaluation of the foreign currency
results in a significant decline in the value of the bond portfolio.
• Question: What type of risk does this situation primarily
illustrate?
• A) Legal Risk
• B) Market Risk
• C) Strategic Risk
• D) Reputational Risk
Concept Check
• A hedge fund holds significant positions in assets such as rare art
and private equity. Due to a market downturn, the hedge fund
faces difficulties in selling these assets quickly to meet investor
redemptions.
• Question: Which risk has increased for the hedge fund?
• A) Market Risk
• B) Liquidity Risk
• C) Credit Risk
• D) Operational Risk

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Chap1 Risk Management presentation for students

  • 2. Risk • Risk is the chance or possibility of experiencing a negative outcome or loss. • It represents the uncertainty about future events that could lead to unfavorable results. • Risk in the context of risk management refers to the potential for an event, action, or outcome to result in a negative or unintended consequence. • It is often defined as the uncertainty that surrounds future events and the potential impacts that those events can have on an organization, project, or system. • For example, investing in the stock market carries risk because stock prices can fluctuate, leading to potential gains or losses.
  • 3. Key Components of Risk: • Uncertainty: Risk involves uncertainty about future events. We cannot know with certainty whether the event will happen or what its impact will be, but we can assess the probability and potential consequences. • Likelihood (Probability): This refers to how likely it is that a particular risk will occur. It ranges from rare to almost certain, often estimated through statistical analysis, historical data, or expert judgment. • Impact (Severity): The potential consequences of the risk if it materializes. This can be measured in terms of financial loss, damage to reputation, operational disruption, or even loss of life, depending on the context. • Risk Exposure: The combination of both the likelihood and impact of a risk gives an organization its risk exposure. High-likelihood, high-impact risks pose the greatest exposure, while low-likelihood, low-impact risks pose the least.
  • 4. Risk Management • Risk management is a series of actions designed to minimize the possibility of loss for an organization or individual. • It involves identifying potential risks, analyzing them, and deciding whether to accept or mitigate them. Role of a Risk Manager: • A risk manager is responsible for understanding potential risks in investment decisions. • Their goal is to make informed decisions that balance potential losses with investment objectives and risk tolerance. • They work to quantify the risk by analyzing data and predicting the likelihood and impact of potential losses.
  • 5. Risk Tolerance and Investment: Risk Tolerance: • Risk tolerance is how much risk an individual or company is willing to take in the pursuit of financial gains. • Companies and individuals must determine how much risk they are willing to take based on their goals, current financial status, and personal comfort levels. • For example, risk-averse investors, like conservative individuals, have a low tolerance for risk. They prioritize stability over potential high returns, opting for safer investments with little volatility. Risk-Taking: • On the other hand, risk-takers actively take on additional risks, hoping to gain more significant returns. • They understand that taking bigger risks may lead to higher rewards, but also comes with a higher potential for loss. • This is common in industries like technology, where companies invest in innovative projects that could either be a huge success or fail.
  • 6. Financial Risk • Financial risk refers to the possibility of a company or individual losing money due to various business activities or external factors. • The key idea is that financial risk affects the organization's profitability, planning, and ability to meet its financial goals. • Financial risk comes from various business activities and transactions. • Other sources include changes in the energy costs, actions of management, or external factors like competitors, foreign governments, and even weather conditions. sales loans mergers, acquisitions investments new projects debt
  • 7. Key Sources of Financial Risk: • Business Activities and Transactions: ▫ Financial risk can arise from routine activities such as buying raw materials, selling products, or managing investments. ▫ Every transaction involves a level of uncertainty in terms of costs, revenues, or market demand. • Energy Costs: ▫ Changes in the cost of energy can directly impact production costs for companies. ▫ For example, if oil prices increase, transportation and production costs might rise, which could affect a company’s profitability. • Management Decisions: ▫ Financial risks can also come from the decisions made by a company’s management, such as entering new markets or taking on new debt. ▫ Poor decision-making can increase risk by making the company more vulnerable to financial losses. • External Factors: ▫ Competitors, foreign governments, and even weather conditions are external factors that can introduce financial risk. ▫ For instance, new regulations by a foreign government could restrict exports, affecting revenue streams.
  • 8. Impact of Financial Risk: • Sharp Fluctuations in Financial Prices: ▫ Sudden and significant changes in financial prices, like the stock market or foreign exchange rates, can increase the costs for a business. ▫ For example, if the price of raw materials suddenly rises, a company might have to spend more to produce its goods, lowering its profit margins. • Revenue Impact: ▫ Changes in financial prices can reduce the revenue a company earns, making it harder to maintain profitability. ▫ This is particularly true for industries with high volatility, such as commodities or finance.
  • 9. How Financial Risk Complicates Business Operations: • Challenges in Planning: ▫ Financial risk makes long-term planning difficult because companies cannot predict costs or revenues with complete certainty. ▫ For instance, if a company cannot accurately forecast the price of raw materials, it becomes challenging to set long- term financial goals. • Complications in Budgeting: ▫ Businesses have to constantly adjust their budgets to account for unforeseen changes in costs or revenues. ▫ This means they might have to cut expenses in other areas, delaying important projects or reducing investments. • Pricing: ▫ If costs are unpredictable, companies might struggle to set prices for their products or services that cover their expenses and deliver a profit. ▫ In highly competitive markets, this could lead to a pricing war, further complicating the financial stability of the business. • Capital Allocation: ▫ Financial risk can force companies to re-evaluate where they invest their money. ▫ They might delay expansion plans or reduce capital allocated to new projects if they are uncertain about future profitability.
  • 10. Types of Financial Risk: • Market Risk: ▫ This type of risk arises from fluctuations in market prices, including interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices. • It is a type of risk associated with the market as a whole rather than with individual stocks or business sectors. • Market risk, also called “systematic risk” cannot be eliminated through diversification, though it can be hedged against in other ways. ▫ Example:  If interest rates rise unexpectedly, companies that rely on borrowing may face higher costs, which could hurt profitability.  Similarly, a change in exchange rates could increase the costs of imported goods for a company, impacting their financial stability. ▫ How to Manage: Companies can hedge against market risk by using financial instruments like options or forward contracts to lock in prices.
  • 11. Types of market risk 1. Interest rate risk 2. Equity price risk 3. Foreign exchange risk 4. Commodity price risk
  • 12. Interest rate risk • Interest rate risk is the likelihood that an investment's value will change as a result of fluctuations in interest rates. This risk is particularly relevant for fixed-income investments like bonds, where the interest (coupon) payments are fixed. • If interest rates rise: The prices of existing bonds (or other fixed-income securities) fall. This happens because new bonds issued after the rate hike will offer higher interest payments (yields), making the older, lower-yielding bonds less attractive to investors. • If interest rates fall: The prices of existing bonds typically rise because these bonds offer higher interest payments than new bonds being issued at the lower rate.
  • 13. Examples of Interest Rate Risk • Bonds and Interest Rate Changes: Imagine you buy a bond for $1,000 that pays a fixed annual interest rate (or coupon) of 5%, meaning you’ll earn $50 each year. Now, assume that a year later, interest rates in the economy rise to 6%. New bonds are now being issued that pay $60 annually for the same $1,000 investment. Since your bond only pays $50, it becomes less attractive to buyers in the market. To sell your bond, you’d likely have to lower the price, causing a loss in value. • Banks and Loans: Interest rate risk also affects banks. For example, if a bank issues long-term loans at a fixed interest rate (e.g., mortgages) and then the central bank raises interest rates, the bank will have to pay more on the deposits it holds but will still be earning the same lower interest on those fixed-rate loans. This squeezes the bank’s profit margins and exposes it to interest rate risk. • Mortgages: If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, a rise in interest rates won't affect your payments because they are locked in. However, if you have a variable-rate mortgage, your interest payments would increase when interest rates rise, leading to higher monthly payments and possibly affecting your ability to afford the mortgage.
  • 14. Impact on Different Sectors • Banks and Financial Institutions: Banks are significantly affected by interest rate risk because their primary business involves borrowing and lending at different interest rates. An increase in rates might reduce lending activity and profitability. • Pension Funds and Insurance Companies: These entities invest heavily in bonds to meet future liabilities. Interest rate risk can affect their ability to meet these obligations. How to Mitigate Interest Rate Risk? 1. Diversification • Diversify the portfolio by adding securities whose value is less prone to interest rate fluctuations (e.g., equity). • Diversify the bond only portfolio by including a mix of short-term and long-term bonds. 2. Hedging • The interest rate risk can also be mitigated through various hedging strategies. • These strategies generally include the purchase of different types of derivatives. The most common examples include interest rate swaps, options, futures, and forward rate agreements.
  • 15. Types of Market Risk Equity Price Risk • Equity price risk is the risk of financial loss resulting from changes in the price of equity. • It refers to the potential for the market value of an investment in equities to decline due to factors like market volatility, economic conditions, company performance, or changes in investor sentiment. • Essentially, it is the risk that the value of a stock or equity portfolio will decrease, potentially leading to losses for the investor or firm holding the equity. Foreign exchange risk • Foreign exchange risk occurs when the value of one currency changes relative to another. • It affects companies that conduct international business (e.g., importing/exporting goods or services) and investors with foreign assets or investments. • Managing foreign exchange risk is critical for companies and investors involved in global markets, and strategies such as hedging with currency derivatives (e.g., futures, options, or forward contracts) are often used to mitigate this risk.
  • 16. Types of Market Risk Commodity A commodity is a basic, interchangeable good or raw material, used in the production of other goods or services. (e.g.., precious metals, base metals, agricultural products, energy). Commodity price risk • Commodity price risk is the risk of financial loss due to fluctuations in the prices of commodities, such as oil, gas, metals, agricultural products, or raw materials. • This type of risk affects businesses, investors, and economies that are exposed to commodities, either through direct investments or because their business operations depend on buying, selling, or processing commodities. • Price volatility can result from various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, weather conditions, economic trends, or market speculation.
  • 17. Credit Risk • This risk comes from the possibility that one party in a transaction (such as a customer, vendor, or another company) will fail to meet its financial obligations. • It also arises if there is an increasing risk of default by the counterparty throughout the duration of the contract • Example: ▫ If a customer cannot pay for the products they have purchased, it poses a credit risk to the company. ▫ This could also happen with vendors or if a company deals with complex financial instruments like derivatives. • How to Manage: To manage credit risk, companies can assess the creditworthiness of their partners before entering into a transaction. They may also use credit insurance or diversify their customer base to minimize the impact of any single customer’s default.
  • 18. Types of credit risk 1. Default risk 2. Bankruptcy risk 3. Downgrade risk 4. Settlement risk
  • 19. Types of credit risk Default Risk • Default risk refers to the possibility that a borrower (such as a company or individual) will be unable to make the required payments on their debt, such as interest or principal, when they are due. • This risk is concerned solely with the borrower’s inability to make timely payments. A default might happen on a single debt or payment but does not necessarily mean the company is bankrupt. • A default can lead to penalties, an increase in borrowing costs, or even renegotiation of terms but does not always result in bankruptcy or insolvency. • To mitigate the impact of default risk, lenders often charge rates of return that correspond the debtor's level of default risk. • A higher level of risk leads to a higher required return. Bankruptcy Risk/ Insolvency Risk • This occurs when a firm is unable to generate sufficient cash flow or income to service its debt, leading to potential insolvency. • It involves taking possession of any collateral provided by the defaulting counterparty. • Credit rating agencies like Moody's and Standard & Poor's evaluate the likelihood of this risk by assigning bond ratings to companies based on their financial health and creditworthiness.
  • 20. Types of credit risk • Downgrade Risk • It arises when a credit rating agency lowers the rating of a security due to perceived deterioration in its financial health. • Example: A downgrade from Standard & Poor’s from a B rating to a CCC rating indicates increased risk. • This downgrade occurs when analysts believe the future outlook for the security has weakened compared to initial expectations. • Creditors may charge higher interest rates to the downgraded entity to compensate for the added risk. Settlement Risk • Settlement risk, also known as "delivery risk," occurs when one party in a financial transaction fulfills its side of the contract, but the other party fails to meet their obligation. • This is most common in the settlement of payments, securities, or foreign exchange transactions. • Essentially, it is the risk that a counterparty will not deliver the promised asset or payment as expected, leading to potential financial loss for the party that has already performed its part of the deal.
  • 21. Operational Risk • This risk stems from failures within the company itself, including people, processes, or systems. • Example: ▫ If a company’s financial system fails due to a technical issue or human error, it can lead to significant financial losses or regulatory penalties. ▫ A common example is when fraud occurs due to weak internal controls. • How to Manage: To minimize operational risk, companies should focus on improving their internal processes, conducting regular audits, and investing in employee training to prevent errors.
  • 22. Liquidity and Business Risk Liquidity risk • Liquidity risk refers to the possibility that a financial institution, company, or investor may be unable to meet their short-term financial liabilities due to an inability to quickly convert assets into cash without incurring significant losses. • This risk arises when there is insufficient market liquidity, meaning assets cannot be sold at their fair value, or the entity cannot raise enough cash to fulfill obligations like debt payments, potentially leading to default. Business risk • It is the potential for a company to experience lower profits or even financial losses due to various internal or external factors that affect its operations. • It can be caused by internal issues (e.g., poor management, production problems) or external factors (e.g., economic downturns, regulatory changes, competition). • Business risk is inherent to the operation of any company and reflects the uncertainties that could impact its ability to achieve its financial goals. • Managing business risk involves identifying potential threats and planning strategies to mitigate them.
  • 23. Legal and regulatory risk • Legal and regulatory risk refers to the potential for financial loss or operational disruption that arises from changes in laws, regulations, or legal actions taken against a company. • This type of risk can stem from non-compliance with existing laws, new regulations, litigation, or legal challenges that affect the company's ability to operate effectively. • Companies are required to follow laws and regulations that govern their industry. • Any changes in these rules can disrupt operations, leading to increased costs, legal challenges, or even the inability to continue certain business activities. Example: • Tax Policy Reforms: Changes in tax laws can increase a company's tax burden or alter the incentives available, affecting profitability. • Minimum Wage Laws: New minimum wage laws may increase labor costs, impacting a company's expenses and bottom line. Reputational risk is the risk of damage to a company's reputation, which can result in financial loss, loss of customers, or a decrease in shareholder value. • This risk arises from negative public perception, bad publicity, scandals, or failure to meet stakeholder expectations, which can harm the trust and credibility of the business. • The rise of social media and online platforms can quickly spread rumors or negative news, making it harder for companies to manage their public image.
  • 24. Strategic risk • Strategic risk is the potential for a company's strategy to fail or underperform, leading to financial losses or reduced competitive advantage. It arises from poor strategic decisions, inadequate resource allocation, changes in market dynamics, or failure to respond effectively to competition, technology, or other external factors. 1. Entering a New Market: A company decides to expand into an international market without properly understanding the local consumer preferences, regulatory environment, or competition. As a result, the expansion fails, leading to significant financial losses. 2. New Product Launch: A company invests heavily in developing a new product, but the product doesn’t meet customer needs or is quickly outcompeted by rivals. This could result in wasted resources and damage to the company’s brand. 3. Failure to Adapt to Technology: A traditional retail company fails to invest in e-commerce and digital platforms while its competitors capitalize on online sales. This could lead to declining market share and lost revenue as customer preferences shift towards online shopping. 4. Mergers and Acquisitions: A company acquires another business, expecting synergy and growth. However, cultural clashes, operational inefficiencies, or overvaluation of the acquired company lead to poor integration and reduced profitability.
  • 25. Financial Risk Management Process • Financial risk management is the process of identifying, assessing, and controlling the risks that arise from financial markets and business activities. • It aims to handle uncertainties in a way that aligns with an organization's goals and policies. The risk management process involves the following five steps 1. Identify the risks • Evaluating organization's exposure to uncertain events that could impact its day to day operations. • These risks could come from market fluctuations, credit issues, operational failures, or other sources. 2. Determine an Appropriate Level of Risk Tolerance • Risk tolerance refers to the amount of risk an organization is willing to accept in pursuit of its objectives. • Determining this involves evaluating the organization’s capacity to handle risk and deciding how much risk is acceptable given its financial situation, goals, and regulatory requirements. • An organization with a high risk tolerance might be more aggressive in its investment strategies, while one with low risk tolerance might take a more conservative approach.
  • 26. Financial Risk Management Process • 3. Quantify risk and Perform a cost-benefit analysis on risk transfer methods. Risk Transfer • It involves contractual shifting of a pure risk from one party to another. There are two important ways to transfer risk; insurance and derivatives. ▫ Insurance It transfers a specific set of risks such as fire or flood risk of an asset. • Derivatives purchased by businesses as a hedge against financial risks such as exchange rate risk. It is a financial product that derives its value from the value of an underlying asset. • Compare the cost of risk transfer methods to the expected cost of the risk. If the cost of transferring is less than the expected loss, it’s a good decision to transfer the risk. • Once quantified, these risks need to be prioritized based on their potential impact and likelihood. • This involves understanding which risks pose the greatest threat to the organization and focusing resources on managing these higher-priority risks.
  • 27. Financial Risk Management 4. Implement Risk Management Strategy in Accordance with Policy • The next step is to implement strategies to manage those risks. • The strategies should be in line with the organization’s policies and overall risk management framework. Hedging: • Hedging is a risk management strategy used to offset potential losses by taking an opposite position in a related asset or investment. This way, if one investment loses value, the other can help balance out the loss. • Risk Management Alternatives • Do Nothing (Acceptance): ▫ Passive Acceptance: Choose to accept all risks as they are, without taking any specific action to mitigate them. This approach is typically used when the cost of managing the risk outweighs the potential benefits. • Hedge a Portion of Exposures: ▫ Partial Hedging: Determine which risks are significant enough to warrant hedging and implement strategies to cover these specific exposures. For example, a company might use financial derivatives to hedge against currency fluctuations or interest rate changes. • Hedge All Exposures: ▫ Comprehensive Hedging: Apply hedging strategies to cover all identified risks. This might involve using various financial instruments and strategies to protect against a wide range of risks.
  • 28. Financial Risk Management 5. Measure, Report, Monitor, and Refine as Needed • Risk management is not a one-time activity but an ongoing process. • Organizations need to continuously measure and monitor their risk exposures and the effectiveness of their risk management strategies. • This involves regularly reviewing risk metrics, generating reports, and ensuring that risk management practices are still relevant and effective. • As market conditions, business environments, or organizational goals change, strategies may need to be refined and adjusted.
  • 29. Challenges to Risk Management Process 1. Identifying the Correct Risk: • One of the biggest challenges in risk management is correctly identifying the risks that could significantly impact a project or business. Misidentifying risks or overlooking important ones can lead to inadequate preparation and increased exposure to potential losses. 2. Efficiently Transferring the Risk: • Once a risk is identified, finding the most effective way to transfer or mitigate that risk can be difficult. This could involve purchasing insurance, hedging strategies, or finding other means to shift the risk to another party. • The challenge lies in ensuring that the method chosen effectively reduces the risk without introducing new vulnerabilities. 3. Ensuring Risk is Properly Dispersed: • For a healthy economy, it’s essential that risks are spread out among multiple participants, rather than being concentrated in the hands of a few. • Proper dispersion means that risks are shared among those who are both willing and capable of handling them, reducing the chances of catastrophic losses for any one party.
  • 30. Challenges to Risk Management Process Lessons from the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: • A notable failure of risk management occurred during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. • It became evident that risk had been too concentrated among a small number of participants in the financial system. When these key players suffered losses, the effects rippled through the entire economy, leading to a global financial crisis. 4. Limitations of Risk Transfer: • Risk management often involves one party transferring risk to another (such as through insurance or financial instruments). • However, this transfer doesn't eliminate the risk—it simply shifts it. • If too many people or businesses take on large risks and then suffer losses, it can create bigger problems across the entire economy. • When many companies or individuals take on more risk than they can handle, it may lead to a financial crisis, impacting not just the involved parties but the whole economic system.
  • 31. Define • A financial institution is an organization that provides financial services to individuals, businesses, and governments. • These institutions act as intermediaries, helping to manage the flow of money and provide access to financial products such as loans, investments, deposits, and payment systems. • Common types include banks, insurance companies, investment firms, brokerage firms. • They play a critical role in the economy by helping individuals and businesses manage their money, access credit, and invest in financial markets.
  • 32. 2007–2009 Financial Crisis • The 2007–2009 Financial Crisis, also known as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), was a severe worldwide economic crisis that began in the United States. • It was triggered by the collapse of the housing market and the widespread failure of financial institutions. • Key Causes 1. Subprime Mortgage Crisis: • During the early 2000s, financial institutions started issuing *subprime mortgages*—home loans offered to borrowers with low credit scores and unstable financial histories. • These borrowers were considered risky because they were more likely to default on their loans. • However, with rising housing prices, both lenders and borrowers believed the risks were manageable. • A housing bubble occurred when the prices of homes rose rapidly to levels much higher than their actual value, driven by high demand and easy access to credit. This increase in demand led to inflated home prices. • The housing bubble burst when the demand for homes slowed, and many homeowners (especially subprime borrowers) could no longer afford their mortgage payments. • As more people defaulted on their loans, the supply of homes for sale increased, but there were fewer buyers. This caused housing prices to fall sharply, or "burst." • This triggered a sharp decline in housing prices and significantly impacted financial institutions exposed to the housing market.
  • 33. 2007–2009 Financial Crisis 2. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): • Financial institutions didn’t hold onto the risky mortgages; instead, they *bundled* them into financial products known as *mortgage-backed securities* (MBS). • Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) are financial products created by bundling home loans together into a pool and then selling shares of this pool to investors. When they buy an MBS, they are essentially buying a share in the pool of mortgages. • Investors receive regular payments from the interest and principal repayments made by homeowners on their mortgages. • By bundling these loans together, the risk was supposed to be spread out. • However, because many of these loans were subprime (high-risk), the value of these securities plummeted when borrowers began defaulting. • The losses were felt not just by the lenders, but by investors around the world who had bought these MBS products, leading to widespread financial instability.
  • 34. 2007–2009 Financial Crisis 3. Lehman Brothers Collapse: • Lehman Brothers, one of the largest investment banks in the world, heavily invested in mortgage-backed securities and other risky financial products tied to the housing market. • When these investments lost value, Lehman Brothers found itself unable to cover its debts and declared *bankruptcy in September 2008*. • This was a pivotal moment in the crisis because it shattered investor confidence in the global financial system. • Lehman’s collapse signaled that even large, well-established financial institutions were vulnerable, leading to panic and a freeze in credit markets.
  • 35. 2007–2009 Financial Crisis 4. Lack of Regulation: • A significant factor behind the financial crisis was the *lack of regulatory oversight* of the financial industry. • Financial institutions were allowed to engage in risky lending practices and invest heavily in complex financial products like MBS without sufficient supervision. • Additionally, *credit rating agencies* gave high ratings to these risky securities, misleading investors into believing they were safer than they were. • The absence of regulations and controls allowed the crisis to grow unchecked, leaving the global financial system exposed to systemic risk.
  • 36. 2007–2009 Financial Crisis Consequences: • Bank Failures: Several major financial institutions failed or required government bailouts to avoid collapse. A government bailout occurs when the government provides financial assistance to a struggling company, industry, or sector to prevent its failure and avoid broader economic consequences. • Global Recession: The financial crisis triggered a deep global recession, resulting in massive unemployment and economic downturns in many countries. • Government Intervention: Governments worldwide implemented emergency measures, including massive stimulus packages and bailouts, to stabilize the economy and restore confidence in financial markets. Massive stimulus packages refer to large-scale financial aid or economic programs provided by the government to stimulate the economy during a crisis. These packages are designed to increase spending and investment in order to boost economic activity, support businesses, and protect jobs. They may include direct payments to citizens, tax cuts, and financial assistance to struggling industries or businesses. The goal is to prevent or reduce the impact of a recession by encouraging economic growth and restoring stability.
  • 37. Concept Check Q1. Which type of risk best describes a company that has weak internal controls and doesn't properly separate job duties, making it easy for someone to bypass or ignore these controls? a)Business risk b)Legal and regulatory risk c)Operational risk d)Strategic risk
  • 38. Concept Check Q2. Local Bank, Inc. (LBI) has extended a loan of $1 million to a private manufacturing company called We Make It All (Make It). The loan is secured by a piece of land and the accompanying building owned by Make It. Recently, due to an economic downturn, Make It has reported its first loss in 10 years and is now facing cash flow problems. Additionally, the value of the land and building held as collateral has been reassessed and is now appraised at only $800,000. Based on this information, which of the following risks for LBI have increased? a)Bankruptcy risk and default risk b)Bankruptcy risk and settlement risk c)Default risk and downgrade risk d)Default risk, downgrade risk, and settlement risk
  • 39. Answer • Default risk has increased because the company is experiencing cash flow difficulties, which could hinder its ability to make payments on the loan. • Downgrade risk has increased due to the company's financial difficulties, which could lead to a downgrade in its creditworthiness or the loan’s rating. • Settlement risk: This risk does not directly apply to the situation, as it typically refers to the failure to fulfill the terms of a financial transaction, • Bankruptcy risk might eventually become a concern if the company's financial situation continues to deteriorate, but based on the information provided, the focus is on the immediate financial difficulties (cash flow) and the collateral devaluation, which directly raise default and downgrade risks.
  • 40. Concept Check A popular fast-food chain decides to revamp its menu to focus on healthier options. However, the change alienates many loyal customers, and sales begin to decline. • Question: What risk is the fast-food chain primarily facing due to this strategic shift? • A) Reputational Risk • B) Market Risk • C) Strategic Risk • D) Credit Risk
  • 41. Concept Check • A large insurance company, SecureLife, recently upgraded its software system for managing customer policies and claims processing. However, due to unexpected software bugs, the system crashes frequently, causing significant delays in processing customer claims. Some customer data has been lost during these crashes, and despite efforts to restore the information, the process has been slow and incomplete. As a result, SecureLife is facing numerous customer complaints, and their service call center is overwhelmed. Management is concerned that continued issues could lead to regulatory scrutiny or fines. • Question: Which risk is SecureLife primarily facing due to the software failures? A) Operational Risk and Reputational Risk B) Operational Risk C) Market Risk D) Reputational Risk E) Credit Risk
  • 42. Concept Check ABC Corporation, an energy company, heavily relies on oil futures contracts to hedge against fluctuating oil prices. However, a global oil price war causes a significant drop in oil prices. ABC Corporation now faces substantial losses due to its exposure to futures contracts. • Question: Which type of risk has increased for ABC Corporation due to the significant drop in oil prices? • A) Credit Risk • B) Operational Risk • C) Market Risk • D) Liquidity Risk
  • 43. Concept Check A real estate development company holds a large portfolio of commercial properties. Due to a sudden drop in market demand, the company struggles to sell or lease its properties, leading to a cash flow shortage and inability to meet its debt obligations. • Question: What type of risk is the company primarily facing? • A) Liquidity Risk • B) Credit Risk • C) Market Risk • D) Reputational Risk
  • 44. Concept Check • A financial institution holds a portfolio of foreign currency- denominated bonds. A sudden devaluation of the foreign currency results in a significant decline in the value of the bond portfolio. • Question: What type of risk does this situation primarily illustrate? • A) Legal Risk • B) Market Risk • C) Strategic Risk • D) Reputational Risk
  • 45. Concept Check • A hedge fund holds significant positions in assets such as rare art and private equity. Due to a market downturn, the hedge fund faces difficulties in selling these assets quickly to meet investor redemptions. • Question: Which risk has increased for the hedge fund? • A) Market Risk • B) Liquidity Risk • C) Credit Risk • D) Operational Risk