Chapter Three Interest rates in the Financial System.ppt
- 1. Chapter Three: INTEREST RATES IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM
- 2. INTEREST RATES DETERMINATION AND STRUCTURE The rate of interest Interest rate is a rate of return paid by a borrower of funds to a lender, or a price paid by a borrower for a service, or the right to make use of funds for a specified period. Thus, it is one form of yield on financial instruments.
- 3. Cont’d • There is interest rate at which banks are lending (the offer rate) and interest rate they are paying for deposits (the bid rate). The difference between them is called a spread. • The spread between offer and bid rates provides a cover for administrative costs of the financial intermediaries and includes their profit. The spread is influenced by the degree of competition among financial institutions.
- 4. Con’d • In the short-term international money markets, the spread is lower if there is considerable competition. • on the other hand, the spread between banks borrowing and lending rates to their retail customers is larger in general due to considerably larger degree of loan default risk. • Thus, the lending rate (offer or ask rate) always includes a risk premium.
- 5. Cont’d • Risk premium is an addition to the interest rate demanded by a lender to take into account the risk that the borrower might default on the loan entirely or may not repay on time (default risk).
- 6. Cont’d • Factors that determine the risk premium for a non- Government security, as compared with the Government security of the same maturity are: 1. The perceived credit worthiness of the issuer, 2. provisions of securities,such as conversion provision, call provision, put provision 3. Interest taxes, and 4. Expected liquidity of a security’s issue.
- 7. Cont’d • In order to explain the determinants of interest rates in general, the economic theory assumes there is some particular interest rate, as a representative of all interest rates in an economy. • Such an interest rate usually depends upon the topic considered, and can be represented by e.g. 1. interest rate on government short-term or long-term debt, 2. the base interest rate of the commercial banks, or 3. a short-term money market rate
- 8. Cont’d • In such a case it is assumed that the interest rate structure is stable and that all interest rates in the economy are likely to move in the same direction. • Interest rate structure is the relationships between the various rates of interest in an economy on financial instruments of different lengths (terms) or of different degrees of risk.
- 9. Cont’d • The rates of interest quoted by financial institutions are nominal rates, and are used to calculate interest payments to borrowers and lenders. • The loan can be ‘rolled over’ at a newly set rate of interest to reflect changes in the expected rate of inflation. • On the other hand, lenders can set a floating interest rate, which is adjusted to the inflation rate changes.
- 10. Cont’d • Real interest rate is the difference between the nominal rate of interest and the expected rate of inflation. It is a measure of the anticipated opportunity cost of borrowing in terms of goods and services forgone.
- 11. Cont’d • The dependence between the real and nominal interest rates is expressed using the following equation: i = (1+ r)(1+ ie) - 1 where i is the nominal rate of interest, r is the real rate of interest and ie is the expected rate of inflation.
- 12. Cont,d Assume that a bank is willing to make a loan to you of Br1,000 for one year at a real rate of interest of 3 per cent. This means that at the end of the year the bank expects to receive back Br1,030 of purchasing power at current prices. However, if the bank expects a 10 per cent rate of inflation over the next twelve months, it will want Br1,133 back (10 per cent above Br1,030). The interest rate required to produce this sum would be 13.3 per cent.
- 13. solution i = (1+ r)(1+ ie) - 1
- 14. The theory and structure of interest rates There are two economic theories explaining the level of real interest rates in an economy: The loanable funds theory Liquidity preference theory
- 15. Loanable funds theory In an economy, there is a supply of loanable fund (i.e., credit) in the capital market by households, business, and governments. Loanable funds are funds borrowed and lent in an economy during a specified period of time – the flow of money from surplus to deficit units in the economy. The higher the level of interest rates, the more such entities are willing to supply loan funds; the lower the level of interest, the less they are willing to supply.
- 16. Cont,d • These same entities demand loanable funds, demanding more when the level of interest rates is low and less when interest rates are higher. According to the scholars , the level of interest rates is determined by the supply and demand of loanable funds available in economy’s credit market (i.e., sector of capital markets for long-term debt instruments). • This theory suggests that investment and savings in economy determine level of long-term interest rates.
- 17. Cont,d • Short-term interest rates, however, are determined by an economy’s financial and monetary conditions. According to loanable funds theory for the economy as a whole: Demand for loanable funds = net investment + net additions to liquid reserves Supply of loanable funds = net savings + increase in the money supply
- 18. liquidity preference theory Saving and investment of market participants under economic uncertainty may be much more influenced by expectations and by exogenous shocks than by underlying real forces. • A possible response of risk-averse savers is to vary the form in which they hold their financial wealth depending on their expectations about asset prices.
- 19. Cont,d • Liquidity preference theory: which explains how interest rates are determined based on the preferences of households to hold money balances rather than spending or investing those funds. – Liquidity preference is preference for holding financial wealth in the form of short-term, highly liquid assets rather than long-term illiquid assets, based principally on the fear that long-term assets will lose capital value over time.
- 20. Cont,d • Money balances can be held in the form of currency or checking accounts, however it does earn a very low interest rate or no interest at all. A key element in the theory is the motivation for individuals to hold money balance despite the loss of interest income. • According to the liquidity preference theory, the level of interest rates is determined by the supply and demand for money balances. The money supply is controlled by the policy tools available to the country’s Central Bank.
- 21. Loanable funds and liquidity preference • It is commonly argued that the two theories are, in fact, complementary, merely looking at two different markets which are: 1. The market for money and 2. The market for non-money financial assets, • Both the above two markets of which have to be in equilibrium if the system as a whole is in equilibrium.
- 22. Structure of interest rates • Interest rate structure is the relationships between the various rates of interest in an economy on financial instruments of different lengths (terms) or of different degrees of risk. The variety of interest rates that exist in the economy and the structure of interest rates are subject to considerable change due to different factors. Such changes are important to the operation of monetary policy.
- 23. cont’d • Interest rates vary because of differences in the time period, the degree of risk, and the transaction costs associated with different financial instruments • The greater the risk of default associated with an asset, the higher must be the interest rate paid upon it as compensation for the risk. This explains why some borrowers pay higher rates of interest than others.
- 24. cont’d • The degree of risk associated with a request for a loan may be determined based up on a • company’s size, • profitability or past performance; • or, it may be determined more formally by credit rating agencies. • Borrowers with high credit ratings will be able to have commercial bills accepted by banks, find willing takers for their commercial paper or borrow directly from banks at lower rates of interest.
- 25. Term Structure of Interest Rates • The relationship between the yields on comparable securities but different maturities is called the term structure of interest rates. • It is the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Risk structure of interest rates • Interest rates and yields on credit market instruments of the same maturity vary because of differences in default risk, liquidity, information costs, and taxation. These determinants are known collectively as the risk structure of interest rates.
- 26. Theories of Term Structure of Interest Rates • There are several major economic theories that explain the observed shapes of the yield curve: Expectations theory Liquidity premium theory Market segmentation theory Preferred habitat theory
- 27. Expectations theory • The pure expectations theory assumes that investors are indifferent between investing for a long period on the one hand and investing for a shorter period with a view to reinvesting the principal plus interest on the other hand.
- 28. Cont,d • For example an investor would have no preference between making a 12-month deposit and making a 6-month deposit with a view to reinvesting the proceeds for a further six months as long as the expected interest receipts are the same. • This is equivalent to saying that the pure expectations theory assumes that investors treat alternative maturities as perfect substitutes for one another.
- 29. Cont,d • The pure expectations theory assumes that investors are risk-neutral. • A risk-neutral investor is not concerned about the possibility that interest rate expectations will prove to be incorrect, as long as potential favourable deviations from expectations are as likely as unfavourable ones. Risk is not regarded negatively.
- 30. Liquidity Premium Theory • Some investors may prefer to own shorter rather than longe term securities because a shorter maturity represents greater liquidity. • In such case they will be willing to hold long term securities only if compensated with a premium for the lower degree of liquidity.
- 31. Cont,d • Though long-term securities may be liquidated prior to maturity, their prices are more sensitive to interest rate movements. • Short-term securities are usually considered to be more liquid because they are more likely to be converted to cash without a loss in value. • Thus there is a liquidity premium for less liquid securities which changes over time.
- 32. Market Segmentation Theory • According to the market segmentation theory, interest rates for different maturities are determined independently of one another. The interest rate for short maturities is determined by the supply and demand for short-term funds. • Long-term interest rates are those that equate the sums that investors wish to lend long term with the amounts that borrowers are seeking on a long-term basis.
- 33. Cont,d • According to market segmentation theory, investors and borrowers do not consider their short-term investments or borrowings as substitutes for long-term ones. • This lack of substitutability keeps interest rates of differing maturities independent of one another. • If investors or borrowers considered alternative maturities as substitutes, they may switch between maturities.
- 34. Cont,d • . However, if investors and borrowers switch between maturities in response to interest rate changes, interest rates for different maturities would no longer be independent of each other. An interest rate change for one maturity would affect demand and supply, and hence interest rates, for other maturities.
- 35. The Preferred Habitat Theory • Preferred habitat theory is a variation on the market segmentation theory. The preferred habitat theory allows for some substitutability between maturities. However the preferred habitat theory views that interest premiums are needed to attract investors from their preferred maturities to other maturities.
- 36. Cont,d • According to the market segmentation and preferred habitat explanations, government can have a direct impact on the yield curve. Governments borrow by selling bills and bonds of various maturities. • If government borrows by selling long-term bonds, it will push up long-term interest rates (by pushing down long-term bond prices) and cause the yield curve to be more upward sloping (or less downward sloping)
- 37. Cont,d • . If the borrowing were at the short maturity end, short-term interest rates would be pushed up.