Climate change and food systems: Global modeling to inform decision making
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The document discusses the impact of climate change on agriculture and food systems, emphasizing the importance of modeling approaches that are transparent, credible, and flexible to inform policymaking. It highlights the potential negative consequences of climate change on crop yields, hunger, and health, particularly in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, and advocates for targeted policies and investments to mitigate these impacts. The need for engagement with stakeholders at various levels is also stressed to ensure the relevance and utility of the modeling results for decision-makers.
Climate change and food systems: Global modeling to inform decision making
- 1. Climate change and food systems: Global modeling to inform decision making Keith Wiebe Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute Global Landscapes Forum IFPRI Session: Informing the policymaking landscape: From research to action in the fight against climate change and hunger Marrakech, Morocco November 16, 2016
- 2. All models are wrong, but some are useful -- George Box and Norman Draper (1987)
- 3. Outline What makes models useful? Transparency, credibility, flexibility Engagement with stakeholders and decision makers Modeling approach – IMPACT Climate change impacts on agriculture and food Implications for policy
- 4. IFPRI’s IMPACT system of models Exploring alternative climate and investment futures 4 Source: Robinson et al. (2015) "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT); Model description for version 3". IFPRI Discussion Paper. International Food Policy Research Institute: Washington, DC.. • Linked climate, water, crop and economic models • Estimates of production, consumption, hunger, and environmental impacts
- 5. Climate change impacts in 2050 The case of maize yields using HadGEM (RCP8.5), DSSAT, and IMPACT (SSP2) Maximum temperature (°C) Annual precipitation (mm) Change in rainfed maize yields before economic adjustments Change in rainfed maize yields after economic adjustments Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
- 6. Climate change impacts in 2050 Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds & sugar -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Yields Area Production Prices Trade Percentchangein2050 SSP1-RCP4.5 SSP2-RCP6.0 SSP3-RCP8.5 Source: Wiebe et al., Environmental Research Letters (2015)
- 7. Hunger in 2030 by climate and investment scenario (bars showing numbers on the left axis, dots showing shares on the right axis) 7 Note: 2030-NoCC assumes a constant 2005 climate; 2030-CC reflects climate change using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley Climate Model, and 2030-COMP assumes climate change plus increased investment in developing country agriculture. Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3, October 2016 (preliminary results from work in progress).
- 8. Health impacts of GHG taxes on food in 2020 Source: Springmann, Mason-D’Croz, Robinson, et al., Nature Climate Change (2016)
- 9. Key messages • Results – Climate change increases pressure on natural resources and slows progress in reducing hunger, especially in Africa South of the Sahara – Also affects diet and health in all regions – A mix of targeted policies and investments – recognizing tradeoffs – will be needed to address impacts at national and landscape scales • Making results useful – Stakeholders for global modeling include international donors and research community – Reaching national and sub-national decision makers requires links to analysis and engagement at smaller scales – Need to build these links and engagement into research planning and policy processes