Climate change and its effect on field crops
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- 2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON FIELD CROPS NAGARJUN,P. Sr M.Sc.(Agri.) PALM-3007 2
- 3. Sequence of presentation Introduction: Global warming and Climate change Impact of climate change on field crops Strategies for mitigation Conclusion Future line of work 3
- 5. Global warming Global warming is the increase in the earth’s average surface temperature due to effect of green house gases. 5 Fig.1
- 6. Fig.2: Variations of the Earth's surface temperature for the past 140 years Source. IPCC 2007 6
- 7. Table 1. Abundance and lifetime of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere 7 ppbV : Parts per billion volume Source: IPCC 2007
- 8. Fig. 3: Share of global GHG emissions by sector 8
- 9. Fig. 4: Share of global GHG emissions by Agriculture 9
- 10. Global warming Warm ocean Decreased co2 solubility in water O3 Photochemical reaction N2O Biomass Burning& N- fertilizers Melting glacier & polar caps Decreased reflective surface Rising sea level Flooding of coastal regions CH4 Cattle & Termites Garbage & Swampy Rice fields CO2 Deforestation Fossil fuel Combustion Aerosol propellants Refrigerants CFC CFC Fig.5 10
- 11. Climate change “Climate change refers to a statistically significant Variation either in the mean state of the climate or its variability, persisting for an extended period” “Climate change refers to general shifts in climate, including temperature, precipitation, winds, and other Factors” 11
- 12. Fig. 6 12
- 13. Fig. 7: Future Climate is Likely to be Warmer • Although there is considerable uncertainty about future, all climate models indicate a rising trend in temperature. By 2100 a rise of 1.8 to 4oC is expected. Higher values cannot be ruled out. Source: IPCC, 2007 13
- 14. Fig.8:Projected warming in 21st century • Source: IPCC, 2007 14
- 15. Krishna et al., 2009 Fig. 9: Expected future change in monsoon rainfall and annual surface temp for 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s 15
- 16. Table 2: Climate Change Scenarios for South Asia CO2 levels: 393 ppm by 2020; 543 ppm by 2050 and 789 ppm by 2080 Source: IPCC, 2007 16 DJF: December, January, February JJA: June, July, August
- 17. 150 200 250 300 2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 MILLIONTONNES 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 MILLION Production Requirement Population Fig.10:Projected Requirement of Food grains 17
- 18. Fig.11: Impact of Climate Change on Food Production Time Production Demand Business as usual Supply Demand 18
- 19. Time Production Demand Business as usual With climate change Fig.12: Impact of Climate Change on Food Production 19
- 20. Time Production Demand Business as usual With climate change With adaptation Fig.13: Impact of Climate Change on Food Production 20
- 22. Source : Naveen Kalra, IARI, New Delhi Fig.15 : Impact of climate change on agriculture 22
- 23. IARI, New Delhi MODELS USED TO PREDICT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE 23
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- 25. • IMPACT ON FIELD CROPS 25
- 26. IARI, New Delhi An increase of 2 - 4oC is predicted to result in a reduction in yields Eastern regions more effected due to increase in temperature and decreased radiation, resulting in lower grains and shorter grain filling durations Additional CO2 can benefit crops, this effect was nullified by an increase of temperature Rice production 26
- 27. Fig. 16: Climate induced percentage change in yield: Irrigated Rice Source: IPCC, 2008 27
- 28. Fig. 17: Climate induced percentage change in yield: Rainfed Rice Source: IPCC, 2008 28
- 29. Effect of rise in temperature and CO2 concentration Interaction of increase in temperature by 1-20 C along with increase in CO2 level by 350-450 ppm This resulted in reduction of rice yields in efficient cropping zones and coastal zones (0.75t/ha and 0.06t/ha) Sinha and Swaminathan, 1991
- 30. Temperature change Crop duration (days) Grain yield (kg/ha) Maximum LAI + 2.00 C -3.3 -8.4 -3.9 + 1.50 C -2.6 -8.2 -3.9 + 1.00 C -2.0 -4.9 -2.4 + 0.50 C -1.3 -3.2 -1.1 Normal - 0.50 C 0 +0.3 +0.2 - 1.00 C +1.3 +2.7 +0.5 - 1.50 C +2.0 +4.6 +1.1 - 2.00 C +13.1 +21.7 +13.6 Table 3 : Rice crop response (%) to change in temperature Source: Bharadwaj, 2008 30
- 31. Mathuda and Chakravarthy, 2000Ludhiana Table 4 : Rice crop response to variations in temperature 31
- 32. IARI, New Delhi Saseendran et al ., 2000 Fig. 18: Sensitivity of rice yield to atmospheric temperature changes between -6 0C and +6 0C as simulated by the CERES- Rice model 32
- 33. Table 5: Effect of increasing minimum temperature on rice yield when harvested in the month of November Dhaliwal and Bedi (2002) 33
- 34. RESPONSE OF RICE PLANT TO ELEVATED CO2 34
- 35. Table 6:Wheat crop response to variation in temperature Temp Change(0C) Crop Duration (days) Maximum LAI Grains per ear Grain yield (q/ha.) Straw yield (t/ha) +2.0 -7.7 -23.9 +4.1 -12.2 -21.6 +1.5 -5.6 -17.6 +3.0 -7.2 -17.7 +1.0 -3.5 -12.1 -0.3 -4.9 -11.5 +0.5 -0.7 -6.8 +0.2 -0.2 -6.0 Normal 143 3.8 24.12 50.43 8.83 -0.5 +3.5 +16.6 -1.0 +5.9 +0.9 -1.0 +6.3 +23.4 -1.7 +9.4 +5.2 -1.5 +7.7 +26.3 -0.4 +7.0 +20.5 -2.0 +11.2 +37.8 -1.7 +6.7 +27.1 % Deviation in yield and yield attributes Mavi et al., 2009 35LAI: Leaf area index
- 36. Fig.19: Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Wheat Yields in North India 350 450 550 650 750 0 1 2 3 4 5 Increase in temperature, C CO2,ppm 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% WHEAT 350 450 550 650 750 0 1 2 3 4 5 Increase in temperature, C CO2,ppm 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% WHEAT 36 Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002
- 37. Fig.20:Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change Scenarios on Wheat Yields in North India 350 450 550 650 750 0 1 2 3 4 5 Increase in temperature, C CO2,ppm 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% WHEAT 350 450 550 650 750 0 1 2 3 4 5 Increase in temperature, C CO2,ppm 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% WHEAT 2020 2050 2080 37Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002
- 38. Fig.21:Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a pessimistic technology scenario 38Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002
- 39. Fig.22:Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Year Production,Mtons Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002 39
- 40. Fig.23: Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Rainfed Wheat Yields in Central India -35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Year Changeingrainyield,% Minimum Maximum 40Source: Aggarwal et al., 2009
- 41. Fig 24: Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Maize Yields in North India 41Source: Aggarwal et al., 2009
- 42. Table 7: Influence of varying levels of CO2 concentration on growth and yield of soybean. 42Allen et al., 2009
- 43. Fig.25: Effect of increase in surface temperature on soybean grain yield as simulated by the APSIM model. Mohanty et al.,2012 43
- 44. Fig.26:Effect of CO2 and temperature on simulated yield of irrigated and rainfed mustard Mohanty et al.,2012 44
- 45. Table 8:Climate Change and Crop Productivity Temperature Effects on Crop Yield – Several Major Crops Crop T opt °c T max °c Yield at T opt t/ha Yield at 28° t/ha Yield at 32°c t/ha % decrease ( 28 to 32°C ) Rice 25 36 7.55 6.31 2.93 54 Soya bean 28 39 3.41 3.41 3.06 10 Dry bean 22 32 2.87 1.39 0.00 100 Peanut 25 40 3.38 3.22 2.58 20 Grain sorghum 26 35 12.24 11.75 6.95 41 G.G.S N Rao. 2008
- 46. Table 9: Projected water requirement by 2020 46 G.G.S N Rao. 2008mm: millimeter
- 47. Table 10: Change in crop duration to increase in temperature. 47 G.G.S N Rao. 2008
- 48. Table 11:Impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture in India Crops Per cent loss of normal yield Sorghum 43.03 Maize 14.09 Tur 28.23 Groundnut 34.09 Wheat 48.68 Onion 29.56 Cotton 59.96 Asha latha et al.,2012 48
- 49. Table 12 : Climate change impact on productivity of wheat, rice ,maize and ground nut crops in Punjab . 49 % Reduction in yield to increase in temperature Hundal et al., 2012
- 50. Effect of climate change on agriculture Groundnut Due to climate change mid season droughts are increasing due to dry weather, suffering of plants from lack of water, depletion of under ground water supply. Sunflower Due to changed rainfall situation, the sowings are not completed before the end of July rather rather continued even after July. Chickpea Since the harvest of the kharif crop is extended up to last week of November, the rabi chickpea sowings are extended up to 2nd week of December. 50 Rajegowda (2012)
- 51. Table 13: Impact of Climate Change on Food Supply 51Source: Aggarwal et al., 2009
- 52. Influence of future climate change on agriculture pests 1. Increased number of annul generation 2. Increased population growth rate 3. Extension of geographical ranges 4. Changed synchrony in pest-host relation 5. Increased insect migration Pooter et al., 2004 52
- 53. Mitigation Strategies for CLIMATE CHANGE 53
- 54. Adaptation strategies to climate change in agriculture Assist farmers in coping with current climatic risks Intensify food production systems Improve land and water management Enabling policies and regional cooperation Strengthen research for enhancing adaptive capacity and mitigation potential 54
- 55. Developing microbial consortium to minimize the production of GHG from rice field Identifying microbes for methane oxidation Soil biodiversity conservation Mitigation concepts 55
- 56. Mitigating pool for GHG • Reforestation • Trough Agronomic practices - Carbon sequestration - Conservation activities - Cut down burning of crop residues - Reduce tillage practices - Improve land management 56
- 57. CH4 - Wet rice cultivation can be managed by - Breeding rice cultivars with low CH4 emission - Alternate wetting and drying - Use of sulfate containing fertilizers - Change in pattern of fertilizer - Use of methanotrophic bacteria - Controlling soil PH - Adoption SRI and aerobic method 57
- 58. N2O from agriculture can be managed by • Use of nitrification inhibitors • Use of Sulphur coated urea and other slow release urea • Placing fertilizer in anaerobic zone • Precision nitrogen management 58
- 59. Conclusion Industrialized countries are more responsible for threat of climate change. Rice yield decreased by about 0.75 t ha-1 in efficient cropping zones and 0.06 t ha-1 in coastal regions. Reduction of yield of rainfed cotton (59.96%), wheat (48.68%), sorghum (43.03%), groundnut (34.09%) and maize (14.09%) respectively due to climate change. By adapting mitigation strategies can minimize the negative impacts of climate change. 59
- 60. Future line of work Need greater research, policy and financial support for mitigating climate change. Development of germplasm and agronomic management practices to over come climate change impact. The future research strategies should focus on developing the technology or methods to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases into atmosphere. The detailed studies are needed to quantify the effects and interactions of CO2 and temperature on field crops. 60
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Editor's Notes
- #46: S N Rao 2008