Climate science: The basics
- 1. Climate science: The basics INÉS CAMILLONI IPCC AR5 Lead Author Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/CIMA University of Buenos Aires/CONICET, Argentina Outreach Event on the IPCC Role, Activities and Findings Media Workshop 29 November 2016 Kingston, Jamaica
- 2. What is climate change? Why does the climate change? What can we expect? What can we do?
- 3. What is climate change?
- 4. Climate change refers to a variation in the state of the climate that persists for an extended period. Change in the state of the climate Changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties
- 5. How can the climate change? -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Change in the mean Change in the mean & variability years precipitation Stationary climate Non-stationary climate
- 6. Climate change refers to a variation in the state of the climate that persists for an extended period. Change in the state of the climate Changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties Decades or longer Changes persistent for an extended period
- 7. Why do we care about climate change?
- 8. -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 years precipitation Threshold of tolerance Stationary climate Non-stationary climate
- 9. Vulnerability Level of propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected by climate change effects. Mitigation A human intervention on climate change causes to reduce its negative impacts. Adaptation Adjustment to actual or expected climate of human and natural systems to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.
- 10. Why does climate change?
- 11. Natural forcing Fluctuations in the solar output Variability of the Earth’s orbit around the sun Variability of the Earth’s axial tilt ASTRONOMICAL Volcanic aerosols injected in the atmosphere Continental drift Orogenic movements GEOLOGICAL
- 12. Land-use change: deforestation, urbanization Changes in the atmospheric composition: aerosols Changes in the atmospheric composition: greenhouse gases (GHG) Anthropogenic forcing
- 13. Earth’s atmosphere Water vapor Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide … The greenhouse effect Natural process that warms the Earth’s surface and the lower atmosphere when some of the heat flowing back from the Earth’s surface is absorbed by atmospheric gases (GHG). Solar radiation Terrestrial radiation Anthropogenic GHG emissions enhanced the greenhouse effect
- 14. Attribution of climate change
- 15. Mean global temperature Solar radiation Sulfate partices Volcano activity Greenhouse gases
- 17. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Independent sources Many lines of evidence
- 18. What can we expect?
- 19. What is a climate scenario? Description of the possible future state of the climate system due to changes in the atmospheric composition due to human activities.
- 20. ¿How climate scenarios are build? Global climate models
- 21. Anthropogenic forcing scenarios RCPs: Representative Concentration Pathways
- 22. > 1370 ppm 850 ppm 650 ppm 490 ppm Atmospheric CO2eq Anthropogenic forcing scenarios
- 23. 0.3-1.7C 2.6-4.8C Global temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 for all scenarios (IPCC2013,Fig.SPM.7a)
- 24. (IPCC2013,Fig.SPM.9) Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century 0.26 m 0.98 m
- 26. What can we do?
- 27. Production Consumption Mitigation options Integration of infrastructures, technologies, institutions and regulations Adaptation options CULTURAL TRANSFORMATION
- 28. Some obstacles for local/regional adaptation & mitigation … Short-term economic planning Professional practices Scientific uncertainties Policies
- 29. And how to overcome them… Updated scientific knowledge Sustainable development National and international context