Corridors of uncertainty submitted
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This document discusses a project focused on enhancing personal security in public transport through technology and user needs. It includes analyses of information types, the role of various stakeholders, and the impact of perceived safety on travel confidence. The paper outlines findings from workshops and expert interviews, emphasizing the importance of reliable information and adaptive technologies to improve user experiences and safety perceptions.
![Expert Interviews: better assurance from technologies
(Real-time) information as assurance
“visitors and infrequent users generally pre-plan what they are trying to do but when
they get to the stop or location, ... that information gives them assurance,
confidence that actually it’s working. So that’s the personal security, personal
safety, in the fact that we don’t want people ... waiting for a bus at two o’ clock in
the morning when it’s never arriving ... that [also] gives an assurance that if they
haven’t pre-planned they get to a bus and it’s not working or something is
happening, they know what is happening.” (WP1EP4)
Mobile technology: game changer for rural areas through low cost assurance?
“we ... don’t [put] in new technology or new information streams for security purposes
but certainly for assurance purposes so [QR codes and NFC] is something we’ve put
in for that. You don’t have to be at the stop to use it, once you’ve used it at the stop
you store it in your ... As soon as you get it onto the Smartphone ... you can
expand – we regularly discuss how we’re going to get fare information on the bus
stops and there’s a lot of issues with that ... a fare table is quite complicated and it
adds another dimension that your publicity can go out of date and the cost of
[updating it] but once it’s electronic …” (WP1EP6)](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/corridorsofuncertaintysubmitted-131028100208-phpapp02/85/Corridors-of-uncertainty-submitted-14-320.jpg)
![Expert Interviews: needs as skills change
Internet search literacy
Travel information literacy
“When we were first developing
Transport Direct the notion of
portal was very strong in web
parlance, it was pre-Google, ...
putting everything in one
place ... people are now their
own integrators, they take a
bit from this website, solve
that problem, there’s another
site that they prefer to solve
another problem and they join
the bits together.” (WP1EP2)
“my [16 yr old] daughter really
doesn’t know how to use
timetables very well because
she looks up train times online
... she specifies when she’s
going ... and she gets a
tailored response, it is a
timetable but it’s a tiny part of
a larger timetable ... although
there are lots of gains with
new technology, there are also
some losses” (WP1EP5)](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/corridorsofuncertaintysubmitted-131028100208-phpapp02/85/Corridors-of-uncertainty-submitted-15-320.jpg)
Corridors of uncertainty submitted
- 1. 'Corridors of uncertainty: information, technology and planning for secure and confident travel by public transport’ K. Pangbourne and M. Beecroft, Centre for Transport Research, University of Aberdeen Paper for UTSG 2013 http://www.pitchvision.com/how-to-exploit-batting-weaknesses-open-stance
- 2. Structure of Paper • About the project • Work Package 1 • Conceptualising personal security • SWOT and STEEPL analysis • The scenarios • Expert interviews • Conclusions • Next steps
- 3. About the project • Focus: interaction between technology and user needs in supporting personal security in travel on public transport. • Aim: develop fundamental understandings of this interaction and enable transport technologies to better support personal security • Approach: five scenario workshops looking at four application areas and the implications of the developed narratives; expert interviews
- 4. WP1: provision of public transport traveller information Information Type Journey options (modes, tickets, routes) Getting to and from vehicles In transit (next stop, delays) Public information (safety, crime messages) Way-finding (labels, maps, direction signs, sat-nav) Delivery Medium Providers/sources of information Transport operators Transport authorities Ticket agencies Tourism and destination promoters Internet innovators (apps, APIs, websites) Word of mouth Human, Printed, Broadcast, Digital Technological innovation New technologies/media Smart vehicles Intelligent Transport Systems Smart ticketing Personalised information Security (biometrics, CCTV, RDIF) Mobile communications Gadgets (QR codes, NFC) Social Media Big data
- 5. Actual Crime/anti-social behaviour and Perceptions based on fear of crime Crime (1) Fear of Crime (A) “Encountering anti-social behaviour can be as bad as encountering crime” “Older people often perceive the risk of crime as being more significant than it is in reality, but it does impact on their confidence in using public transport” Actual confidence levels and extent and the fear of accidents Confidence (3) Fear of Accidents (or discomfort) (B) “From non-users the perception is very negative, but regular PT users have a more realistic view of the situation” “Night services can be daunting to use in some areas” “Older people, who have a bad experience on public transport, e.g. falling on a bus, will be much less likely to use it in the future. The consequences for them are more severe” Real safety issues, and perception of risks to safety from crime/anti-social behaviour Safety (2) Perceived risks to safety (C) “Falls on buses are a major cause of injuries and undermines travellers confidence - alternative travel options or not at all. Elderly find themselves stranded and isolated unless using private “Don’t forget multi-storey car parks. One of the worst I saw (several years ago) was that provided for Tyne and Wear metro users – dank, dark, graffiti and an appalling smell in the stairwells!”
- 7. High quality, innovative RTI already exists RTI is reassuring Cost-benefit of RTI is being demonstrated Education and crime prevention initiatives do work Successful innovations with social media A lack of cross-modal RTI Accessibility of RTI and other forms of travel information Geographic differences in provision and consistency of RTI Complex fares and networks makes RTI provision more difficult Lack of integration/coordination between sources of data Responsive security technology feasible, but full enforcement is costly Ability to change perceptions and counter urban myths Adapting journeys on the move Weaknesses Learn from existing good practice and from other sectors, such as tourism Think of the whole journey from the customer perspective Open data Social media and crowd-sourcing Integrate RTI with higher design standards for interchange and public spaces Improve management and provision of information during disruption Education about acceptable standards of behaviour on PT. High tech innovation could threaten continuing provision of low tech information measures, when many customer groups will continue to need them. Lack of clarity in payment for and ownership of data Cost of staffing and training for operators to properly adopt social media Intrusive securitisation of transport as a result of extreme incidents Unfundable higher expectations of RTI More expensive PT increases social inequity and reduces personal security Failure to address erroneous perceptions of risk Impact of increased disruption Threats Opportunities Strengths SWOT ANALYSIS
- 8. STEEP(L) Analysis •Environmental Social Technological • • • • •Pace of change •CLIMATE CHANGE! • Ubiquitous, pervasive technos •LEVs • Internet of things •Energy demands • Security vs Privacy Peak car Demographic trends Teleworking Social polarisation Economic • • • • Value of time Smart payment methods Alternative energy economy Employment patterns Political Legal/Regulatory • Acceptability of transport subsidy • Political responses to terrorism and cyber-attack • City-regional devolution and localism •Passenger led performance monitoring •Integration of regional level systems & services
- 9. Scenarios WORLD MARKETS Keywords: Individualism, material wealth, mobility, global markets, international policy, privatisation, minimal government. Governance: interdependence GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITY Keywords: Community, environment, active public policy and international cooperation, highly regulated markets. Individual values NATIONAL ENTERPRISE Keywords: Individualism, material wealth, national self-reliance and cultural identity, fragmented world. Adapted from Berkhout and Hertin (2002), SPRU Foresight Futures Framework to 2020 Community values LOCAL STEWARDSHIP Keywords: Environment, localism, social regulation of markets, small-scale economies, participative governance. Governance: autonomy
- 10. World Markets • International & long distance domestic travel ▲ • MNCs dominate journey planning services market • Car is king!: • infrastructure, facilities and services for car access to PT • traveller information for car access to PT • Information provision ▼ (if no commercial benefit) • Decreasing confidence + narrower travel horizons for many • Increasing role for DRT • Data security and target hardening are major issues • Limited role for social media and open data
- 11. Global Responsibility • Akin to current Scandinavian socio-governmental model • Social value of PT recognised and funded by tax • Disruptive radicals rare, but dangerous due to social trust • Open data reliance vulnerable to cyber attacks • Minority groups supported in PT service and information provision increasing use • Active travel and PT preferred for local trips • Data heavy, integrated, multi-modal transport networks • Active social media + supportive technos support PT use
- 12. National Enterprise • Fragmented PT & info services - ‘homeland’ security priority • Investment in national infrastructure: m’way & rail networks, key interchanges, borders & international gateways. • IT and related services developed at national level. • De-regulated service provision affords little protection • Information critical in society - quality varies by ability to pay • Mobile ‘travel buddies’ in absence of community spirit • Surveillance society - ID Card to access/pay for PT • Little social media & open data - official providers favoured
- 13. Local Stewardship • Mostly local journeys – more active travel • ▲ cycling & walking infrastructure, info + PT integration • Range of models of cycle ownership and use • DRT for mobility-impaired (local PT ▼ as active travel ▲) • Technology used to support home-working • longer distance travel▼, but good info: – Local broadcast media provide RTI in locality – DAB pushes this to geo-located mobile devices • Community oriented, local lifestyles crime ▼ but cycle crime▲
- 14. Expert Interviews: better assurance from technologies (Real-time) information as assurance “visitors and infrequent users generally pre-plan what they are trying to do but when they get to the stop or location, ... that information gives them assurance, confidence that actually it’s working. So that’s the personal security, personal safety, in the fact that we don’t want people ... waiting for a bus at two o’ clock in the morning when it’s never arriving ... that [also] gives an assurance that if they haven’t pre-planned they get to a bus and it’s not working or something is happening, they know what is happening.” (WP1EP4) Mobile technology: game changer for rural areas through low cost assurance? “we ... don’t [put] in new technology or new information streams for security purposes but certainly for assurance purposes so [QR codes and NFC] is something we’ve put in for that. You don’t have to be at the stop to use it, once you’ve used it at the stop you store it in your ... As soon as you get it onto the Smartphone ... you can expand – we regularly discuss how we’re going to get fare information on the bus stops and there’s a lot of issues with that ... a fare table is quite complicated and it adds another dimension that your publicity can go out of date and the cost of [updating it] but once it’s electronic …” (WP1EP6)
- 15. Expert Interviews: needs as skills change Internet search literacy Travel information literacy “When we were first developing Transport Direct the notion of portal was very strong in web parlance, it was pre-Google, ... putting everything in one place ... people are now their own integrators, they take a bit from this website, solve that problem, there’s another site that they prefer to solve another problem and they join the bits together.” (WP1EP2) “my [16 yr old] daughter really doesn’t know how to use timetables very well because she looks up train times online ... she specifies when she’s going ... and she gets a tailored response, it is a timetable but it’s a tiny part of a larger timetable ... although there are lots of gains with new technology, there are also some losses” (WP1EP5)
- 16. Expert Interviews: inclusiveness Dangers from rapid innovation “if you were carrying out any segmentation, age would be really significant and within that, somewhere around thirtyfive to sixty age group, there probably is a lot of variation depending on uptake of technology.” (WP1EP5) Training to increase confidence with particular groups “There’s lots of travel training schemes out there. But we want to encourage more of those... . How can you give people confidence to travel, how can you build up their travel horizons and so on?” (WP1EP1)
- 17. Next Steps Coping with disruption workshop Automation and flexible transport workshops • Completed • Successfully utilised scenario narratives from 1st workshop • Developed richer insights focused on disruption • 4th/5th February 2013 • Will also utilise scenario narratives from 1st workshop • Aim to develop rich insight on automation and flexible transport respectively Final workshop will bring the original narratives together with the rich pictures of the three specific application areas. Participants will consider unintended consequences of securitisation technologies and discuss the desirability of different aspects of the four narratives. This will be used to identify future research opportunities and policy recommendations.
- 18. Conclusions Key conclusions: now Key drivers: future • Information is a major source of confidence and reassurance when travelling • • Information provision: where technology and users interact • • Advances in quantity of information – Open Data – Mobile platforms • • Issues in quality of information – Provenance and trust – Management of data – Supporting certain user types • • Social change – Travel demand – Demographic change Technology – Speed of change and take up Economy – Energy resources – Budget constraints Environment – Impact of climate change Politics and Regulation – Attitudes to securitisation – Type and regulation of future PT
- 19. Thank you! Contact details • Kate Pangbourne: k.pangbourne@abdn.ac.uk • Mark Beecroft: m.beecroft@abdn.ac.uk