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Buy on Rumor; Sell on News
Kevin M. Brett
February 3, 2014
Do You Want Fries With That?
Not So Fast…
• 74 percent of CEOs want graduates with a
liberal arts education
• Who can effectively communicate through
persuasive writing and presentations
• And Solve Problems

Source: Association of American Colleges and Universities Survey of 320 CEOs
America’s New Investor Class
• 54 percent of Americans own stocks, mutual funds and
bonds; 73 percent college graduates; 83 percent post
grads
• Internet Trading Tools; IRAs, 401Ks
• Longer life spans; higher health care costs; college
tuition
24-Hour Global Markets
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•
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•
•

NYSE-NASDAQ; US
FTSE (“Footsie”) UK
DAX (Germany)
CAC-40 (France)
Nikkei (Japan)
Hang Seng (Hong Kong)
24-Hour Financial News
• Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Investor’s Business
Daily
• Fortune, Forbes, Business Week, Barron's
• CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg TV
• The “Money Honey” and “Mad Money”

• AP, Dow Jones, Reuters, Bloomberg, TheStreet.com
• Bloggers, Social Media and Chat rooms
• PR Newswire, Business Wire, Internet Wire
Introducing the NYSE
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

NYSE – Founded 1817
“The Big Board”
$16.6 trillion Market Cap
2,308 listings
Venerable Companies
Ringing the Bell
Pounding the Gavel
Introducing the NASDAQ
• Founded in 1971
• “Electronic Exchange”

• $4.45 trillion market cap
• 2,709 listings
• National Association of Securities Dealers
Automated Quotations (NASDAQ)
SEC Disclosure Rules
• Annual Report to Shareholders (10-K)
• Quarterly Earnings Reports (10-Q)
• Major Unplanned Announcements (8-K)
– Upside / Downside Guidance Variations
– Mergers and Acquisitions
– Restructurings

• Annual Meeting of Shareholders
• Prospectus for Planned IPO (S-1)
Watching the Ticker
NYSE

NASDAQ

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

•
•
•
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•
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•

MAT
DIS
LNKD
TWTR
NKE
YUM
HOG
BUD
LUV
MCD

MSFT
AAPL
INTC
CSCO
SBUX
SCHW
GOOG
FB
AMZN
NFLX
Quick Market Definitions
• GAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting
Principles
• EPS: Earnings Per Share
• IPO: Initial Public Offering
• Market Capitalization: Share price x
Number of Shares Outstanding = Value

• SEC: Securities Exchange Commission
Preferences and Choices
• Non-Profit Communications: $62,275
,

• Corporate Public Relations: $88,823
Preferences and Choices II
• Community Relations: $63,437

• Financial Communications: $117,233
Pay Rates for IR/PR Directors
• Investor Relations Director Range
$97,753 to $201,565
• Corporate Public Relations Director Range
$86,469 to $167,836

2013 Source: Salary.com
Asking the Obvious Question
“…Sometimes the most obvious question
really is the question. In Enron’s case: How
do you make money?” – Bethany McLean,
Fortune Magazine
How Did ENE Make Money?
How Does AAPL Make Money?
How Does GOOG Make Money?
How Does AMZN Make Money?
How Does MSFT Make Money?
How Does BA Make Money?
How Does LUV Make Money?
How Does SBUX Make Money?
How Does MCD Make Money?
How Does JWN Make Money?
How Does LULU Make Money?
How Does NKE Make Money?
How Does UA Make Money?
How Does TWTR Make Money?
How Does LNKD Make Money?
How Does FB Make Money?
Tale of Two IPOs
Connections
• 200 million subscribers
• $25.7 billion Market Cap
• $972 million revenues
• $21 million profits
• Debuted at $45
• Now $215.21

Friends
• 1 billion+ subscribers
• $158.9 billion Market Cap
• $5.0 billion revenues
• $32 million profits
• Debuted at $38
• Now $62.57
Q1 Financial Statement
Wildcat.com (?: CWU)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Revenues: $2 million
COGS: $1 million
Gross Margin: $1 million
SG&A: $250,000
R&D: $250,000
Operating Margin: $500,000
Taxes: $200,000
Net Income (Loss): $300,000
Q1 Financial Statement
Wildcat.com (NYSE: CWU)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Revenues: $2 million
COGS: $1 million
Gross Margin: $1 million
SG&A: $250,000
R&D: $250,000
Operating Margin: $500,000
Taxes: $200,000
Net Income (Loss): $300,000
Q1 Financial Statement
Wildcat.com (NYSE: CWU)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Revenues: $2 million
COGS: $1 million
Gross Margin: $1 million
SG&A: $250,000
R&D: $250,000
Operating Margin: $500,000
Taxes: $200,000
Net Income (Loss): $300,000
Q2 2014 Financial Statement
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Revenues: $24.51 billion
COGS: $8.28 billion
Gross Margin: $16.23 billion
SG&A: $5.51 billion
R&D: $2.74 billion
Operating Margin: $7.96 billion
Taxes: $1.32 billion
Net Income (Loss): $6.55 billion
Buy on Rumor, Sell on News

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Buy on Rumor, Sell on News

  • 1. Buy on Rumor; Sell on News Kevin M. Brett February 3, 2014
  • 2. Do You Want Fries With That?
  • 3. Not So Fast… • 74 percent of CEOs want graduates with a liberal arts education • Who can effectively communicate through persuasive writing and presentations • And Solve Problems Source: Association of American Colleges and Universities Survey of 320 CEOs
  • 4. America’s New Investor Class • 54 percent of Americans own stocks, mutual funds and bonds; 73 percent college graduates; 83 percent post grads • Internet Trading Tools; IRAs, 401Ks • Longer life spans; higher health care costs; college tuition
  • 5. 24-Hour Global Markets • • • • • • NYSE-NASDAQ; US FTSE (“Footsie”) UK DAX (Germany) CAC-40 (France) Nikkei (Japan) Hang Seng (Hong Kong)
  • 6. 24-Hour Financial News • Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Investor’s Business Daily • Fortune, Forbes, Business Week, Barron's • CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg TV • The “Money Honey” and “Mad Money” • AP, Dow Jones, Reuters, Bloomberg, TheStreet.com • Bloggers, Social Media and Chat rooms • PR Newswire, Business Wire, Internet Wire
  • 7. Introducing the NYSE • • • • • • • NYSE – Founded 1817 “The Big Board” $16.6 trillion Market Cap 2,308 listings Venerable Companies Ringing the Bell Pounding the Gavel
  • 8. Introducing the NASDAQ • Founded in 1971 • “Electronic Exchange” • $4.45 trillion market cap • 2,709 listings • National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ)
  • 9. SEC Disclosure Rules • Annual Report to Shareholders (10-K) • Quarterly Earnings Reports (10-Q) • Major Unplanned Announcements (8-K) – Upside / Downside Guidance Variations – Mergers and Acquisitions – Restructurings • Annual Meeting of Shareholders • Prospectus for Planned IPO (S-1)
  • 11. Quick Market Definitions • GAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Principles • EPS: Earnings Per Share • IPO: Initial Public Offering • Market Capitalization: Share price x Number of Shares Outstanding = Value • SEC: Securities Exchange Commission
  • 12. Preferences and Choices • Non-Profit Communications: $62,275 , • Corporate Public Relations: $88,823
  • 13. Preferences and Choices II • Community Relations: $63,437 • Financial Communications: $117,233
  • 14. Pay Rates for IR/PR Directors • Investor Relations Director Range $97,753 to $201,565 • Corporate Public Relations Director Range $86,469 to $167,836 2013 Source: Salary.com
  • 15. Asking the Obvious Question “…Sometimes the most obvious question really is the question. In Enron’s case: How do you make money?” – Bethany McLean, Fortune Magazine
  • 16. How Did ENE Make Money?
  • 17. How Does AAPL Make Money?
  • 18. How Does GOOG Make Money?
  • 19. How Does AMZN Make Money?
  • 20. How Does MSFT Make Money?
  • 21. How Does BA Make Money?
  • 22. How Does LUV Make Money?
  • 23. How Does SBUX Make Money?
  • 24. How Does MCD Make Money?
  • 25. How Does JWN Make Money?
  • 26. How Does LULU Make Money?
  • 27. How Does NKE Make Money?
  • 28. How Does UA Make Money?
  • 29. How Does TWTR Make Money?
  • 30. How Does LNKD Make Money?
  • 31. How Does FB Make Money?
  • 32. Tale of Two IPOs Connections • 200 million subscribers • $25.7 billion Market Cap • $972 million revenues • $21 million profits • Debuted at $45 • Now $215.21 Friends • 1 billion+ subscribers • $158.9 billion Market Cap • $5.0 billion revenues • $32 million profits • Debuted at $38 • Now $62.57
  • 33. Q1 Financial Statement Wildcat.com (?: CWU) • • • • • • • • Revenues: $2 million COGS: $1 million Gross Margin: $1 million SG&A: $250,000 R&D: $250,000 Operating Margin: $500,000 Taxes: $200,000 Net Income (Loss): $300,000
  • 34. Q1 Financial Statement Wildcat.com (NYSE: CWU) • • • • • • • • Revenues: $2 million COGS: $1 million Gross Margin: $1 million SG&A: $250,000 R&D: $250,000 Operating Margin: $500,000 Taxes: $200,000 Net Income (Loss): $300,000
  • 35. Q1 Financial Statement Wildcat.com (NYSE: CWU) • • • • • • • • Revenues: $2 million COGS: $1 million Gross Margin: $1 million SG&A: $250,000 R&D: $250,000 Operating Margin: $500,000 Taxes: $200,000 Net Income (Loss): $300,000
  • 36. Q2 2014 Financial Statement Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) • • • • • • • • Revenues: $24.51 billion COGS: $8.28 billion Gross Margin: $16.23 billion SG&A: $5.51 billion R&D: $2.74 billion Operating Margin: $7.96 billion Taxes: $1.32 billion Net Income (Loss): $6.55 billion