David Smith - Global Futures and Foresight: Part 1
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This document discusses several key drivers of change that will impact the future, including technological advancements, globalization, climate change, resource depletion, changing populations, and urbanization. It provides historical quotes that have proven incorrect with the benefit of hindsight, highlighting how difficult it is to predict the future. The document also outlines many global trends related to these drivers of change, such as rising life expectancies, increasing urbanization and middle classes in developing countries, challenges around food and energy security, and demographic shifts.
David Smith - Global Futures and Foresight: Part 1
- 1. What s What’s driving change David Smith Chief executive Global Futures and Foresight Global Futures © Global Futures and Foresight 2011 & Foresight
- 2. Radio, Airplanes & X-Rays p y "Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays ill prove X ra s will pro e to be a hoax." William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, British scientist, 1899 mathematician and physicist 1824-1907 "There i nothing new t b di "Th is thi to be discovered i physics now” d in h i ” Global Futures & Foresight
- 3. Flying machines y g "There will never be a bigger plane built " built. A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people. A380 1,000 seats Global Futures http://images.scripting.com/archiveScriptingCom/2005/01/18/380.jpg & Foresight
- 4. Turning the world upside down g p 1872 2002 Global Futures & Foresight
- 6. post-recessionary strategies recessionary strategies • Market Share • Mergers and Acquisitions • Cost reduction • Efficiencies • Agility A ilit • Innovation • New Products & Services • New distribution • New business models • New participants http://news.icm.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/image/552-1215523032.jpg Global Futures & Foresight
- 7. Winning Strategies g g “The winners will be the companies who knew p how to identify opportunities in the downturn.” Jim Davis, chief marketing officer, SAS 1930 1932 1933 Global Futures & Foresight
- 8. Winning Strategies g g “Great work comes from insight. … Insights are g g going to come in so many different ways.” Laura Lang, CEO, Digitas USA, March 2008 Global Futures & Foresight
- 9. Global Trends 1. Global instability 11. Declining trust 2. Volatile worldwide 12. Cult of celebrity economy 13. Individualization 3. Globalisation 2.0 14. 14 Age f b d A of brands 4. Global warming 15. Social applications 5. Energy, water and talent 16. Technological convergence shortages 17. 17 Video everywhere 6. Bio continues to grow 18. VOip & ipTV 7. Ageing societies 19. Virtuality 8. Unretirement 20. Nano technology gy 9. Work-life blend 21. Digital 24/7 lifestyles 10. Feminization 22. Cashless society 11. Wealth, health and 23. Mobility & convenience happiness h i 24. Rise of the robots 12. Urbanization Global Futures & Foresight
- 10. The mother of invention Global Futures & Foresight
- 12. Six mega trends g 1. Globalization Global business multi-regional local CSR business, multi regional, 2. Energy and resources Towards a sustainable future 3. 3 Climate change and environmental pollution Finding solutions 4. Technology Health, communications, food, energy, business models 5. New consumption patterns Moral economy, informed consumers and Asia 6. Changes in the world of work Talent, ageing, connected and mobile Global Futures http://csr‐news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends‐and‐the‐future‐of‐corporate‐social‐responsibility/ & Foresight
- 13. UK Trends • Growing population, 10m more by 2020. • 80% of population growth from immigrants. • Muslims population 8% by 2030. • Ageing, 10m +65’s today double by 2050 • Longer lifespan, 120 by 2020. g p , y • Sluggish economy • Persistent unemployment • Growing numbers of wealthy • Entrepreneurial city businesses • Low carbon economy • ‘Cloud’ - 80% CAGR to 2014. • Broadband speeds x10 by 2020. Global Futures & Foresight
- 14. Food Industry Challenges • Urbanisation • Convenience • Food price • Value for money • Health & Wellness • Distribution • Diet Cycles • Transport costs • Fair Trade • Food Provenance • Sustainability • Future of CAP • Packaging • Regulation • Ethics & Integrity • Globalisation • Personalisation • Big-brand C-stores • Authenticity • On-the-go food • Own label • Home delivery • Fresh • Productivity Global Futures & Foresight
- 15. Changing world
- 16. “The size of the world economy will triple The over the next four decades as emerging- market economies wield increasing p g power” January 4th 2011 HSBC Holdings Plc “World GDP to double within two decades” April 20th 2011 p Standard Chartered Global Futures & Foresight
- 17. E7 double G7 by 2050 E7 to catch G7 y 2019 in Figure 1: E7 could overtake G7 by 2020 Fi 1 ld t k b 60000 50000 Convergence Catch up Catch-up Overtaking nstant 2008 I$) 40000 GDP at PPPs (con G7 GDP 30000 G7 E7 E7 GDP Canada China France, India 20000 Germany Brazil y Italy Mexico 10000 Japan Russia UK Indonesia USA Turkey 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Source: World Bank for 2000-8, PwC projections of actual GDP in 2009-10 and trend GDP thereafter Source: PwC: January 2010 Global Futures http://www.ukmediacentre.pwc.com/Content/Detail.asp?ReleaseID=3547&NewsAreaID=2 & Foresight
- 18. The great rebalancing g g • By 2014, Asia bigger than USA and Europe combined. combined The Economist • Profound innovations in: – product design – Market infrastructure – Value chains. http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5A55F520091109 Global Futures Source: McKinsey Quarterly, June 2010 http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/newsletters/2010_06_30.htm & Foresight
- 19. Middle Class 2011 - 2030 70 million becoming ‘Middle Class’ every year Global Futures Source: McKinsey – World Economic Forum & Foresight
- 20. CLIMATE CHANGE
- 21. Global warming g • Average temperature 2100 1.8 to degrees C l i hi h 18t 4d Celsius higher. • More frequent, intense & longer: – floods droughts and heat waves floods, waves. • Africa, Asia and Latin America crop yields down by 20% - 40%. http://www.groupedebruges.eu/pdf/feeding_the_future_booklet_final.pdf Global Futures & Foresight
- 22. Food production innovation p • Food prices to triple by 2050. International Food Policy Research Institute . • Without climate change prices rise: – 40% for wheat – 60% for both rice and maize by 2050 • As the world population grows. • With climate change: g – Wheat prices to rise 170% to 194% – Rice prices 113% to 121% – Maize to go up 148% to 153%. Global Futures Source: International Food Policy Research Institute ‘Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation’ November 2009 http://www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-change-impact-agriculture-and-costs-adaptation & Foresight
- 23. New Polar sea route Ice gone completely in Pen Hadow, Arctic Explorer summer within 10 years Global Futures & Foresight
- 24. GLOBAL RESOURCES
- 25. Depletion of resources p Warming cost the o Celsius by 2100 Unabated climate change could of 5.2 world 5% of GDP/year; if more dramatic predictions come to pass, theSociety’s Journal of Climate May 2009 American Meteorological cost could be more than 20% of GDP. • Half the world’s population suffering water world s shortage by 2025. World Bank • India uses up/pollutes groundwater by 2020 • Bi f l compete with food for land/water. Bio-fuels t ith f d f l d/ t One year of food or a tank of SUV fuel. • 2oC temperature increase means a 12% to 20% fall in global food production by 2100. • By 2050 we will be 9.2bn but eat like 13bn. • Global agriculture output must double in the g p next 30 years to sustain population growth. World Bank estimates Global Futures According to Stanford University and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researchers & Foresight
- 26. European sustainability p y • Need to: – Use less energy – Reduce carbon emissions • By 2020, EU to reduce energy needs by 315 TWh (terawatt hour) per year year. • Water scarcity. – Major constraint on food production. • M More productive l d not an option. d ti land t ti – Only by clearing the world's rain forests. http://www.innovationeu.org/news/innovation-eu-vol2-1/0266-renewable-energy.html http://www.sweden.se/eng/Home/Society/Sustainability/Facts/Sustainable-living/ http://www.publicservice.co.uk/feature_story.asp?id=15466 Global Futures & Foresight
- 27. Increasing scarcity of key materials for many technologies Figures do not take into account new demand arising from new technologies Source: LabNol ‘How Long Will Rare Metals Last?’ October 2009 Global Futures http://www.labnol.org/home/how-long-will-metals-last/10648/ & Foresight
- 29. Global population g p p growth The global population is expected to rise to 8bn in 2020 and 9.2bn in 2050 www.watchblog.com Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org Global Futures & Foresight
- 30. Islamic population p p • Global population increases by 2.5 bn from 2005 to 2050 • Muslim countries will contribute 1 75 bn people (70%) 1.75 people. (70%). • In 2005, Muslims represented 24% of world population. • This will rise to 33% in 2050 and 37% by 2100. Global Futures http://www.freeworldacademy.com/globalleader/population.htm & Foresight
- 31. Halal markets $2.7 trillion today $30 trillion by 2050 1 • Travel • Real Estate • Tourism • Transportation • Hospitality • Warehousing • Portals • Industrial Parks • Web it W b sites • Health • Banking • Cosmetics • Insurance • Fashion • Investments I t t • Shopping • Capital Markets • Theme Parks • Development • Food Today a product issue – tomorrow a supply chain issue Global Futures 1 - According to a research study conducted by JWT and AMR in 2009 & Foresight
- 32. Workforce • By 2050... the EU labour force to fall by 68 million workers • India - only major economy whose workforce will grow over 20 years. • China – graduates grow from 99m in 2009 to 195m in 202 – DOUBLE. Net gain of million people needed to fill the EU gap. (Population shortfall in the EU) Global Futures & Foresight
- 33. URBANISATION
- 34. Urbanization Global Futures 1950 - 2030 & Foresight
- 35. $40 trillion infrastructure challenge g Water Power Road and Rail Air/ seaport Total North America $3.62 $3 62 $1.53 $1 53 $0.94 $0 94 $0.43 $0 43 $6.52 $6 52 Latin/South America $4.97 $1.44 $1.01 $0.06 $7.48 Europe $4.52 $1.08 $3.12 $0.43 $9.15 Asia / Oceania $9.04 $4.23 $2.11 $0.51 $15.89 Other (MENA) $0.46 $0.72 $0.62 $0.16 $1.96 Source: Cohen & Steers Global Infrastructure Fund 2009 Global Futures http://www.cohenandsteers.com/downloads/14/fundguide.pdf & Foresight
- 36. Urbanization V cal rming Vertic far g Smart Cities Global Futures & Foresight
- 37. CHANGING PEOPLE
- 38. Ageing p p g g populations Percentage of Global population over 60 Global Futures & Foresight
- 39. Life expectancy climbing p y g • Men born in 1985 can expect g to live to 91 …all existing projections are too low. • Upper forecast - 97. Cass Business School - 2009 • Those with access to advanced technologies can expect a healthy lif b t h lth life beyondd 120 years Institute for Alternative Futures Global Futures & Foresight
- 40. And we’re living longer lives g g Human life expectancies have the potential to reach 500 or possibly 500, even 1000. “The first person to live to 1,000 might , g be 60 already” Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A., M.A. and Ph.D., University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Cambridge UK Born 20th April 1963 - Global Futures & Foresight
- 41. Obesity y By 2015, approximately 2.3 billion adults will be overweight and more than 700 million will be obese. (The World Health Organisation) Global Futures & Foresight
- 42. Too few kids Global Futures & Foresight
- 43. Women take control • Earning and learning more than men. • Global earning power of women to reach $18tn by 2014. (World Bank) • Women control $15tn – 70% of global consumer spend by 2015. (BCG) • More UK women under-35 research financial products online than men. • 2m self employed women in this decade self-employed (2010-2020) November 2009 report. • 40% Coutts’ female clients gained their wealth through salary salary. Source: Wealth Bulletin, September 14th 2009 http://www.wealth-bulletin.com/wealth-business/advisers/content/1055164840/ Source:The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) Global Futures Source: Rohit Talwar, Fast Future & Foresight
- 44. CONSUMERS CO S S
- 45. Drivers of the consumer shift 1. Better educated (more savvy). 2. Declining disposable income 3. Transparency – of pricing and operations afforded by the internet. 4. Social media penetration. 5. Demand f personalized products. 5 D d for li d d t 6. Lower barriers to entry in eading to increased competition. 7. 7 Smart technology 8. 24/7 society. 9. Trust in business. (or lack of) 10.The 10 The rise of Green Green. 11.Service differentiation now key. Global Futures & Foresight http://www.frankwbaker.com/advcon.htm
- 46. Ethical consumerism • Roughly 40% of food is wasted wasted. Brian Halweil of the Worldwatch Institute • Trend toward ethical consumerism,” Jens Lö J Lönneker, C l k Cologne b based Rh i d Rheingold ld • Consumers looking to brands they can trust – depth to their stories. PURPOSE http://pennalternativefuels.com/content/innovative-local-farming-key-global-hunger-fight-group-says Global Futures http://www.greenerpackage.com/green_marketing/interpack%E2%80%99s_eye_sustainability & Foresight
- 47. Online consumer
- 48. Not just another channel j • More than half of online buyers across Europe say they find products on the Web that they can't find elsewhere. Forrester. Source: Cnet, Global Futures http://news.cnet.com/business-tech/?keyword=e-commerce & Foresight
- 49. Online Shopping is Green pp g “If deliveries completely replaced shopping in “distant stores” there distant stores might be a 80% to 90% reduction in carbon emissions.” George Monbiot in his 2007 book, Heat. http://carnbikes.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/online_shopping.jpg Global Futures http://www.triplepundit.com/2009/05/is‐the‐warehouse‐model‐the‐future‐for‐grocery‐stores/ & Foresight
- 50. Business Models
- 51. Premise underlying re-invention y g • Reconfigured relationships. • M h Mash-up b i business models. d l • Consumer increasingly powerful. • Innovation is a key differentiator differentiator. • Convenience & Quality expected. http://media.economist.com/images/20050402/1405LD1.jpg Global Futures & Foresight
- 52. Social computing led innovation p g • 70’s and 80’s technology led. • 80’s and 00’s marketing led 80 s 00 s led. • Social computing led innovation. Forrester Driven by: • Empowered customers & employees. • IT and Marketing, jointly power era. Financial outperformers are 57% more likely than underperformers to use collaborative and social networking tools Global Futures Source: Forrester, http://blogs.forrester.com/cio/2010/02/the-new-era-of-social-innovation.html & Foresight
- 53. Social media - enterprise collaboration p • 80% of executives worldwide say enterprise-wide collaboration is the key to success. Global Survey Enterprise Collaboration • 90% emphasized innovation and growth over cost savings. http://www.aventis.edu.sg/blog/Index.php?paged=2 25% of execs and IT decision‐makers dread collaboration because of the time and energy it wastes. because of the time and energy it wastes http://www.sbr.com.sg/information‐technology/news/singapore‐firms‐embrace‐social‐media‐enterprise‐collaboration Global Futures & Foresight
- 54. Social networks Doing business networks g • Global relationships • Learning • Sourcing ideas • Co-creation • Recruitment • Building relationships • Community engagement • Networked business models Over 2 billion people in top 40 Social Networks Source: The GFF Pulse expert panel survey Global Futures & Foresight
- 55. Value creation shifting from employees to outside the enterprise • Organizations outnumbered by the resources provided by their network. • Business value from the social world. • Significant trends such as: – Crowdsourcing – Open and social supply chains – Open innovation – Social media marketing – Social CRM ‘Social business’ will greatly amplify and Social business transform what an organization does. Global Futures http://www.dachisgroup.com/2010/08/six-social-business-trends-to-watch/ & Foresight
- 56. Innovation Networks • You can’t know it all or have all the best ideas • Ford spent $8bn on R&D in 2005 and lost $17bn in 2006 • L Learn t connect - P t & Gamble did to t Procter G bl – For every P&G researcher 200 more existed outside. – Built an external development network of 3m – Launch time halved and innovation rate up 75% Global Futures & Foresight
- 57. Facebook - new media channel “We have the most powerful distribution mechanism that h been created i a generation” Mark Zuckerberg th t has b t d in ti ” Within five years he expects facebook to make billion and billions of dollars from turning the tv, news, film and music tv news industries upside down. Global Futures & Foresight
- 58. Facebook Credits • July 1st Facebook Credits mandatory for games & apps. – F Facebook t k a 30% commission. b k take i i • Facebook social gaming market - $3bn. • Payvment on Facebook Facebook. – 60,000 retailers in its social store. – 400 new retailers added e e y day 00 e eta e s every day. • Credits bigger than PayPal & Google? By 2020 Facebook could be the internet for many Global Futures & Foresight
- 59. attraction + attention = engagement = £ Global Futures & Foresight
- 60. Who distributes your brand? y Are you “Likeable” ? Likeable Global Futures & Foresight
- 61. New business models • More people who call – worse the service becomes becomes. • Re-design the call centre as an internet forum. • More people involved - problem solved better and faster. • The intelligence for solving g g moves into the community. • Increases value and decreases cost. cost Global Futures & Foresight
- 62. Disintermediation • Music – itunes – Individual songs/not albums g • Travel Agency – Trip Adviser – book hotels/not packages • Lending/borrowing money – Zopa – direct to lender/cut out banks • Real Estate – Findaproperty, Tesco Estate Agency • Ad ti i and PR Advertising d – Tweets, blogs, Youtube, Flickr, SN’s etc. • Insurance – Social Networks self insure? Part of the rise in people taking control and not relying on others. Global Futures & Foresight
- 63. TECHNOLOGY
- 64. Disruptive technologies p g • Nano • g Genetic Engineering g • Social Networks • Mobile broadband • Electronic media • Interactive displays • Internet II • Jamming • Large Glass displays • The Grid • Virtual real worlds • Holograms • Humanoid robots Global Futures & Foresight
- 65. Technology and Communications gy ‘For a list of all the ways technology has failed to improve the quality of life, please press three.’ Alice Kahn. • Growth of the Internet • Cloud services • Social Networks • Avatars & the 3D world • Mobile devices • mpayments • Voip/ipTV • Robots Global Futures & Foresight
- 66. Internet access a Human Right g A United Nations report said on 3rd June 2011 that disconnecting people from the internet is a human rights violation and against international law Global Futures http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/06/internet-a-human-right/ & Foresight
- 67. UK online in 2010 • £ 100bn UK internet economy (7.2% of GDP) • 60% driven by consumption • To grow 10% pa • 19m of 26m households Internet connected. • 33% access internet on their phone. • 25m people members of Facebook. • Time online grew 65% in past 3 years. • 62% adults (32m) bought online in 2010. • John Lewis online sales up 36% in in 2010. • Half of travel booked online http://inside.123-reg.co.uk/archives/getting-the-rest-of-britain-online • 38m have accessed ebay • 7m have sold on ebay Global Futures Source: Boston Consulting Group: October 2010 “The connected kingdom & Foresight
- 68. Where people would elect to live if universal connectivity gave them the power to choose. choose http://newsroom.orange.co.uk/image/997/ Source: Orange, http://newsroom.orange.co.uk/media/uploads/connectivity%20brochure.pdf Global Futures & Foresight
- 69. New era of mass communication • Today's Internet has 1.9 bn users. • World population is 7 bn people people. • By 2020 Internet will have 5 bn users. National Science Foundation in the U.S for one predicts • Connecting 3 billion people • Mostly in emerging markets – 26% of global economic activity – Half of businesses can’t get online. – Africa – 1 internet connection/1,000 pc’s the Other 3 Billion http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=96642 Global Futures http://networks.silicon.com/webwatch/0,39024667,39193696,00.htm & Foresight http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/article/11665/comms/telecoms-industry-sees-opportunity-in-tough-times
- 70. Connected world • Internet traffic will quadruple to 966 exabytes per year in 2015 Cisco 2015. Up 400% in 4 y p years • 2014 to 2015 traffic up 200 exabytes. • More than Internet IP traffic in 2010. • 1 zettabyte of internet traffic by 2015 – A trillion gigabytes. 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes = 10007 bytes = 1021 bytes Global Futures Source: ITP, June 2011 http://www.itp.net/585110‐cisco‐predicts‐15b‐connected‐devices‐by‐2015 & Foresight
- 71. Surrounded by technology y gy • 15bn connected devices by 2015. • Integrates physical & virtual world. • Objects sense their environment and communicate its status. status • Tools to understanding complexity. • Ubiquity creates new models. 22 billion devices by 2020 ‘Internet of ‘things’ ‘I t t f ‘thi ’ Source(1): Forbes 2010 http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/20/internet‐connectivity‐personalization‐technology‐cio‐network‐sensors.html?boxes=Homepagechannels Source(2): eLearnSpace, 2010 http://www.elearnspace.org/blog/2010/03/19/the‐internet‐of‐things‐2/ Global Futures & Foresight
- 72. Global Futures & Foresight
- 73. Online on the move • Mobile Internet is ramping up faster than desktop Internet did: • Smartphone outsell: – Basic Cell Phones in 2011. Morgan Stanley – PC’s in 2010. • Mobile App & Search users doubled 2009 to 2010 2010. http://gigaom.com/2010/04/12/mary-meeker-mobile-internet-will-soon-overtake-fixed-internet/ Source: Hard Knox Life, ‘Changing consumer landscape creates a $50 billion digital opportunity,’ June 2010 Global Futures http://www.hardknoxlife.com/2010/06/08/changing-consumer-landscape-creates-a-50-billion-digital-opportunity/ & Foresight
- 74. Mobile data Global Futures & Foresight
- 75. Unstructured Data • 85% of business comms is email. • Unstructured data is 80% of all company information. To rise to 90%. • Every 5.5 years data managed by enterprises will grow by a factor of 10 10. (According to an IDC estimate) “Personal data is t e new o o t e e so a s the e oil of the internet and the new currency of the digital world” http://www.mastermind-solutions.com/images/data-conversion.jpg Maglena Kuneva European Consumer Commissioner http://www.busmanagement.com/article/Issue‐12/IT‐Management/Managing‐the‐Data‐Explosion/ Global Futures http://news.zdnet.co.uk/itmanagement/0,1000000308,39287196,00.htm & Foresight
- 76. Engaging through technology g g g g gy • Telepresence market to be worth $ $4.7 billion in 2014. • As organisations cut: – Travel costs a e – Carbon footprint – Increase productivity (Winter Green Research, Techcast). Video Conferencing / Telepresence g p Source: TMC News, August 2009 http://www.tmcnet.com/channels/telepresence/articles/62985-telepresence-market-reach- 47-billion-2014-report.htm Global Futures Source: Venture Beat, March 2010 http://venturebeat.com/2010/03/04/virtual-events-keep-growing-and-even-comdex-makes- & Foresight a-comeback-online/
- 77. Engaging with technology g g g gy • Speech recognition and artificial intelligence (AI) enable natural user interface: – Gesture – Speech p – Look • Virtual assistants to serve as secretaries, tutors, salespeople. secretaries tutors salespeople • Almost all routine work (TechCast) The keyboard and mouse are dead Global Futures & Foresight
- 78. Engaged in virtual reality g g y By 2019 • 3D virtual reality displays displays, • Embedded in glasses and contact lenses. • Pi Primary i t f interfaces f for communication with other persons, computers, the Web, and virtual reality. (Kurzweil) d it l lit • Linking our senses directly with other people’s senses or with machines. Global Futures & Foresight
- 79. Engaging with artificial intelligence • Artificial Intelligence’s - we will interact with them like humans humans. • e-technology advanced: – Fewer human interactions – More strategic focus. • Face & voice recognition that identifies emotional changes changes. 24 hours a day, 7 days a week online and available y, y Global Futures Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394 & Foresight
- 80. Even more realistic technology gy By 2015 • Complete three dimensional three-dimensional holographic displays. IBM • Touchable Holograms. By 2020 • Haptic interfaces allow users to feel virtual objects. • Illusion of touching surfaces. • Could revolutionise how we interact with customer support agents and service personnel. Source: Softpedia 2009 http://news.softpedia.com/images/news2/What‐Is‐Haptics‐and‐How‐Does‐It‐Feel‐2.jpg Global Futures http://www.innovations‐report.com/html/reports/information_technology/report‐29643.html & Foresight
- 81. New communication channels Clooney 1 Global Futures Acroid 1 Shakira 2 & Foresight
- 82. 2020… face to face still in vogue g Hiroshi Ishiguro 2 0 2.0 Hiroshi Ishiguro Global Futures & Foresight
- 83. What’s changing? g g Everything and everybody • Economies • Populations • People • Planet • Places • Technology • Work • Business models In P t I Part II we’ll look at what we can ’ll l k t h t do about all this change Global Futures & Foresight
- 84. Imagine it If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead y g y Thank you +44 7932 408901 david.smith@thegff.com www.thegff.com h ff www.linkedin.com/in/dasmith New report launched July 2011 Connect via LinkedIn or twitter davidsmithgff Download a full copy from www.thegff.com gfftv Global Futures & Foresight