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Moving your turtles to the margin 
Dr Carl A. Gibson 
Country Fire Authority Australia & 
La Trobe University 
Director Risk Management 
Ivan Pupulidy PhDc 
US Forest Service 
Director Office of Learning
Origin of Margin of Maneuver
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Normal Work? 
Workers make 
operational 
trade-offs. 
Normalization 
of risk. 
WE can’t agree 
about risk 
values!
Risk Perception 
• Risk is Conceived 
Perceived, 
Communicated 
very differently. 
• What is normal for 
one person is quite 
different for 
another.
Perception of Safety 
• Safe operation, in reality, is a complicated and messy 
business. 
• We respond to the feeling of safety in mysterious 
ways.
9 
Resilience 
Individual 
Organizational 
Tactical 
Strategic 
Resilience 
Learning
10 
Resilience 
Individual 
Organizational 
Strategic 
Resilience 
Learning 
Tactical 
Tactical 
Margin
Problem 
Challenge of 
understanding 
Challenge of 
recognition 
Challenge of 
communication 
Challenge of 
action
Challenge of 
understanding 
Challenge of 
communication 
Challenge of 
action Problem 
Understand 
implications 
Challenge of 
recognition 
Share 
information 
Action & 
experiment 
Recognise 
change in 
conditions 
Innovation
Social & cognitive network 
Easily applied 
Conceptualise 
Intuitive 
NXew 
What we already do
14 
Margin of Manoeuvre
15 
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Uncertainty 
Operating 
conditions
16 
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Volatility 
Uncertainty 
Operating 
conditions
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Uncertainty 
Operating 
conditions 
Volatility Ambiguity
18 
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Uncertainty 
Dysfunctional 
relationships 
Operating 
conditions 
Volatility Ambiguity
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Shared 
understanding
20 
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Shared 
understanding 
Emergent 
leadership
Margin of Manoeuvre 
Shared 
sensemaking 
Emergent 
leadership 
Innovation 
Adaptive capacity 
Relationships
Not just a theory 
In practice today 
Improving performance 
and saving lives
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Dynamics of Influence & Change 
24
Questions/Discussion
26 
Resilience 
Individual 
Organizational 
Tactical 
Strategic 
Resilience 
Learning
Things that never happened before – 
happen all the time. Lee Clarke
28 
Resilience 
Individual 
Organizational 
Tactical 
Strategic 
Resilience 
Learning

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davos3

Editor's Notes

  • #10: What we will discuss
  • #11: What we will discuss
  • #27: In the ways that you discovered – margin was in creased through preparation, in real time and through reflection – or learning
  • #29: In the ways that you discovered – margin was in creased through preparation, in real time and through reflection – or learning