Dealing with uncertainty in emerging assessments
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The document discusses the EHEC outbreak in Germany in 2011, highlighting common errors in crisis response and barriers that hindered an effective resolution. It emphasizes the importance of communication and collaboration across organizations to improve crisis management and lessons learned for future incidents. Additionally, the document notes the significant impact of the outbreak in terms of health and economic implications.
Dealing with uncertainty in emerging assessments
- 1. Gordon Müller-Seitz Chair of Strategic Management, TU Kaiserslautern, Germany EFSA‘s 2nd Scientific Conference, EXPO 2015, October 16, 2015 Dealing with uncertainty in emergency assessment: The case of the EHEC outbreak in Germany in 2011
- 2. Every crisis is distinct, but frequently, response actions have common errors
- 3. Agenda 3Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16 Recap of the EHEC outbreak in Germany in 20111. Lessons learned2
- 4. Several barriers hindered a swift solution to the crisis 4 Barriers 4 1) Missing relations 2) Established bureaucratic structures 3) Uncertainty 1) Missing relations 2) Established bureaucratic structures 3) Uncertainty Source: Müller-Seitz (2014), Müller-Seitz, Macpherson (2014) Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16
- 5. Crisis as a trigger for change 5 Ad hoc solutions 5 1) Common frame Need to act Time pressure 2) Emergent leeway Actors’ gains Modifying past experiences Established infrastructures 1) Common frame Need to act Time pressure 2) Emergent leeway Actors’ gains Modifying past experiences Established infrastructures Source: Müller-Seitz (2014), Müller-Seitz, Macpherson (2014) Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16
- 6. Communication is key when it comes to aligning activities and engaging with stakeholders 6 Communication 6 Sources of contamination Cucumbers? Lettuce? Tomatoes? Sprouts? Sources of contamination Cucumbers? Lettuce? Tomatoes? Sprouts? Source: Müller-Seitz (2014), Müller-Seitz, Macpherson (2014) Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16
- 7. Agenda 7Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16 Recap of the EHEC outbreak in Germany in 20111. Lessons learned2.
- 8. Lessons learned for managing your organization 8 Intraorganizational implications 8 Implications Transparency is ambiguous Learning from and across incidents Redundancies are beneficial Make use of leeways during crisis Implications Transparency is ambiguous Learning from and across incidents Redundancies are beneficial Make use of leeways during crisis Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16
- 9. Lessons learned for managing across organizational boundaries 9 Interorganizational implications 9 Implications ‘War for meaning’ / blame game Seek external expertise to legitimize actions Collaborate to become aware of problems sooner - on a national level - on the EU-level - on a global level Implications ‘War for meaning’ / blame game Seek external expertise to legitimize actions Collaborate to become aware of problems sooner - on a national level - on the EU-level - on a global level Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16
- 10. Thank you very much for your interest Contact – Research Group ‘Risk & Network Management‘ 10 Chair of Strategic Management Phone: +49 (0) 631 205 5009 Fax: +49 (0) 631 205 5014 eMail: gms@wiwi.uni-kl.de Prof. Dr. Gordon Müller-Seitz Address Technische Universität Kaiserslautern Lehrstuhl für Strategisches Management Postfach 3049 67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany http://strama.wiwi.uni-kl.de/en Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16 This paper benefited from insightful comments of Olivier Berthod (FUB), Andreas Jansen (ECDC/RKI), Jan Kielstein (MHH), Georg Schreyögg (FUB), Jörg Sydow (FUB), Lothar Wieler (RKI/FUB) and Jürgen Zentek (FUB) on early drafts. Last but not least I am genuinely grateful for the medical practitioners for their time, support, insights and patience in the course of transdisciplinary collaboration.
- 11. The EHEC outbreak took German authorities by surprise and caused havoc 11 Key figures Source: Nature (2011); RKI (2011) Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16 May – July 2011 Selected intermediate figures (Infected / HUS) - Germany (2.987 / 855) - Sweden (32 / 15) - Denmark (11 / 7) (Northern) Germany 53 fatalities EU-wide economic and polictical implications