Decision making by objection Cuban missile
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The document summarizes and critiques a model of decision making called "decision making by objection" as applied to analyze decision making during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The key points are: 1) The model argues decision making during the crisis did not follow a standard goal-oriented process but involved discovering goals through debate as alternatives were proposed and objected to. 2) Findings from analyzing ExCom meeting records found alternatives were evaluated based on their probability of success or making the situation worse, not on clearly defined goals. 3) The model is critiqued for ignoring individual interests and overemphasizing shared goal generation, and for only using data from 4 of 13 ExCom meetings to develop the analysis
Decision making by objection Cuban missile
- 1. Decision making by Objection and the Cuban Missile Crisis Paul A. Anderson Patcharawan Ubonleot 5710131001 23 September 2015 GSPA NIDA
- 2. Outline • Significance and Background of the crisis • Argument and Analysis • Findings Decision making by objection Model • Critique • Conclusion 2
- 3. Outline • Significance and Background of the crisis • Argument and Analysis • Findings Decision making by objection Model • Critique • Conclusion 3
- 4. Significance Confrontation between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War making the two superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. The crisis is unique in numerous ways ranging from calculations and miscalculations as well as direct and underground communications and miscommunications between the two rivals. It was principally played out at the White House and the Kremlin level with little input from the relevant bureaucracies. U.S. Department of State Office of the Historian 4
- 5. Background In 1962 after U.S. (John F. Kennedy) failed to conquer Castro regime it was found that Russia (Nikita Khrushchev) reached an agreement to set up a missile site in Cuba. U.S. (Kennedy) had options proposed by his top advisors- either destroy missiles and attack Cuba or send uncompromising warning to missiles removal During the crisis several rigid and vague yet reconcilable messages were conveyed by direct message, television statement including discussion between Attorney General Robert Kennedy that secretly met with Soviet Ambassador to the United States. The president finally decided to use naval quarantine. Eventually, Soviet agreed to remove the missile from Cuba. 5
- 6. Outline • Significance and Background of the crisis • Argument and Analysis • Findings Decision making by objection Model • Critique • Conclusion 6
- 7. Argument: Tradition decision making process • Possible alternatives Search for • Consequences Examine • Consequences and desirable objective Evaluate Go a l 7
- 8. Argument 8 Organizational decision making Capacity of Human Limited information processing of human to perform goals to choice task because the goal to choices sequence is not what decision maker do Problematic preferences Vague goals Fluid participation Loss attention Unclear technologies Loss in means and ends IN C r i s i s o u t s i de o r g an i z at i o n Irrationality decision making Influence/ attention of politician Individual background & constraint s i.e. time Reckless analysis Organized anarchies Problem Solution Actors (Participants) OUT A Garbage Can Model
- 9. Outline • Significance and Background of the crisis • Argument and Analysis Findings • Decision making by objection Model • Critique • Conclusion 9
- 10. Analysis 10 The group argued…..debated….challenged each other's assumptions, predictions and….options Executive Committee of the National Security Council (the ExCom)
- 11. Analysis 11 Qualitative method Coding the document, Determining binary net Coding categories Data Archival records : position papers, notes, minutes and summary records of the ExCom meetings Unit of analysis sentences from archival records Results Frequency of the different kinds of interactions in the four meetings of the ExCom
- 12. Outline • Significance and Background of the crisis • Argument and Analysis • Findings Decision making by objection Model • Critique • Conclusion 12
- 13. Findings • The evidence suggests that the decision of the ExCom throughout the crisis did not follow the standard description of decision making task Not Goal oriented • Instead, decision makers discover goal throughout the course of making decision. In fact, the decision makers do not even seek a solution to a problem but a course of action that do not have a high probability of making the situation worse Solving problem is a minor concern 13
- 14. • Decisionismade by groupdecisionmaking via argumentation and debate • Goal discovery occurs as a result of the interaction of advocates of conflicting views • An alternative with a high possibility of making matters worse will face objections and rejected • The process stimulates the discovery of goals 14 The decision is actually made by Findings It is deviated from the standard model !
- 15. Not always competing choices but a sum of mixed choices 15 Airstrike Impose a blockade Military measure Quarantine, inspection at sea, surveillance Blocking import and export Diplomatic pressure Restriction of Petroleum, oil and Fuel import, UN Condemnation 1. Structure of alternatives
- 16. 2. Goal Discovery 16 Global goal (Moral/tradition) Concern that objects proposed option Discussion & Debate Acceptable alternatives Go a l “A surprise attack by a very large nation against a very small one. This, I said, could not be undertaken by the U.S. if we were to maintain our moral position at home and around the globe” Robert Kennedy discovery is a social process in which the causal texture link objectives, constraints, and imperatives with alternatives and their consequences through discussion and debate.
- 17. 3. Evaluation of Alternatives 17 Good high probability of producing a positively valued and a low probability of producing a negatively valued state of affairs. Bland low probabilities of producing either positively or negatively valued states of affairs. Mixed high probabilities of producing positively or negatively valued states of affairs. Poor low probability of producing a positively valued and a high probability of producing a negatively valued state of affairs. Paradoxical about a good," "optimal," or satisfactory” Bland alternatives, those with low probabilities of either success or failure, will be acceptable when no good alternative is readily available
- 18. Reformulating Decision making by objection Model 18 1. A problem is defined and a global goal is also identified. A Rough description of an acceptable resolution of the problem. 2. A course of action is proposed. The alternative will be accompanied by an argument describing the positive outcomes related with undertaking the action. 3. Possibility of one of three responses: 3.1 lf there is agreement it will be ratified. 3.2 If there is no support/formal opposition the alternative will die. 3.3 If there is an objection to the alternative and the effect is to propose constraints, beyond the global goal, that further define an acceptable resolution. 4. If there is disagreement over the newly introduced constraint A secondary discussion on the merits of the new goal may arise. Only if there is an imperative to act will a competing course of action be proposed. 5. In the absence of an imperative to act the original alternative is generally discarded and a different independent course of action is proposed.
- 19. Key features of Decision making by Objection 19 3F e a t u r e s Ambiguity and change in preferred courses of action. As new goals discovered, preferences change, and as options are proposed, individuals change arguments they make- Lack of reference from competing action Ambiguous, ever- changing set of options Confusing process and loss of leadership
- 20. Outline • Significance and Background of the crisis • Argument and Analysis • Findings Decision making by objection Model • Critique • Conclusion 20
- 21. Critique 21 The Cuban missile crisis is also investigated and explained by many scholars such as Allison through three different lens: rational actor model, Organizational Process" model, and the “Bureaucratic/Governmental Politics" model. Action and its consequences are both products of administration between organizations and interaction of players whose interests are typically mixed. Anderson ignores extensive explanation of each key actors in term of personal interests and values but emphasize it as a power to generate shared goal and courses of action. However, its emphasis on the decision environment influencing goal generation helps understand and predict the expected degree of courses of action. Framework for Analysis Research method and Quality of data collected Qualitative method for analysis is to some extent appropriate for documentary analysis. However, only data from four meetings were used.
- 22. Critique 22 Benefits for organization analysis Obvious benefits for foreign policy analysis We attempt to study and use different method i.e. cost- benefits, multi-criteria etc. for searching, analyzing and evaluating possible alternatives. And end up with policy decision that is heavily inherently determined by social interaction and arrival of mutually shared norms, interests and values. Findings and its power to generalization The data used are based on 4 ExCom (5-8) meetings. 2,3,4 and 9 meetings are classified. The first meeting was not recorded. Was there crucial evidence for goal and alternative initiation? The author assumes that the actors shared goal in national interests. If personal motive involved, it must have been justified. This could undermine the framework of analysis.
- 23. Outline • Significance and Background of the crisis • Argument and Analysis • Findings Decision making by objection Model • Critique • Conclusion 23
- 24. Conclusion • Human is irrational actor trying to preserve rights to survive which usually exploits others’ rights and interests. • But in scarce resources and complex situation human has limited capability in processing and analyzing information particularly where many actors involve. • Decision makers do not always seek optimal solution particularly when facing constraints. They usually seek satisfying options that provide minimum risk of failures. 24
- 25. Conclusion Therefore....... • The decision made is rather a product of social interaction associating with personal values, goals and interests. • Organization decision is not intellectual as one anticipate. It is not linear. And it is hard to predict. • So if one seeks to understand how a policy is shaped not only in chaotic situation , this model should not be ignored. • Even this is only findings drawn from one case, one should compare with similar phenomenon, find the fit and apply it appropriately. 25
- 26. THANK YOU 26