Decoding the Chinese Internet

Decoding the Chinese Internet
A white paper on China's Internet economy
September 2017

China Internet report-EN-FINAL.pptx 1
Copyright©2017byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved.
Draft—for discussion only
Agenda
Foreword
Characteristics of the Chinese Internet market
• Market characteristics
• User characteristics
• Competition characteristics
• Summary of Chinese characteristics
Decoding the characteristics of the Chinese Internet market
• Question 1: How has the Chinese Internet market maintained such strong growth?
• Question 2: Why is the Chinese Internet market particularly dynamic and volatile?
• Question 3: What are the key factors for success in the Chinese Internet market? Why have
global giants failed in this market?
• Question 4: How will the characteristics of the Chinese Internet market evolve in the future?
• Question 5: What will be the impact of more Chinese Internet companies going global?

2016
2015
2014
2017
Foreword
Number of Internet users in China reached 253
million, overtaking the 220 million in the U.S.
Alibaba's GMV reached $248 billion, greater than that
of Amazon and eBay combined.
Mobile payment transaction volume in China
reached $8.5 trillion, 70 times that of the U.S.
Three technologies (incl. autonomous driving, etc.)
developed by Baidu were selected by MIT Tech
Review as “10 Breakthrough Technologies in 2017”.
P2P lending volume in China reached $66.9 billion,
4 times that in the U.S.
As of April, Ant Financial’s Yu’ebao surpassed JP
Morgan, with $165.6 billion AUM, becoming the world’s
biggest money market fund.
2013
2008
Shared bikes, a concept that originated in China,
attracted U.S. startups to follow suit. OFO, after only 2
years, made the CrunchBase unicorn list with a $1
billion valuation.
Context: The Chinese Internet is
attracting increasing global attention
Alibaba, overtook Wal-Mart for the first time with a
GMW of $490 bn, and became the world’s largest retail
platform
China and the U.S. are the dual engines
driving the global Internet economy.
However, these two markets are vastly
different. Jack Ma, chairman of Alibaba said,
“If the US is a car-based country, then China
today is driven by the Internet and mobile
phones.”
This report was led by the Boston
Consulting Group, in collaboration by the
leading Chinese Internet giants Alibaba and
Baidu. We hope that it will encourage further
consideration and discussions on the
Chinese Internet market.
This report aims to unveil the key
characteristics of the Chinese Internet
market, and explore their root causes.
Sources: Literature research, BCG analysis.

Agenda
Foreword

Size: China is one of the world's largest Internet markets
The largest by Internet users and 2nd largest by online spending
710m Internet users in China, almost as
many as India and the US combined
China is leading the world except the US
in online spending
Top 10 countries by number of Internet users 2016 (100 Mn) Top 10 countries by online spending 2016 ($bn)
Sources: CNNIC, Internet Live Stats, BCG analysis.
Market characteristics
7.1
4.6
2.9
1.4
1.2
0.9
1.0
Mexico
Indonesia
China
US
Brazil
0.7Germany
Nigeria
Russia
0.6
Japan
0.6
India
1,133
967
352
335
309
217
209
180
155
74Italy
-3X
Germany
Russia
Japan
China
France
Brazil
India
UK
US
Almost 3x that of
Germany

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
800
600
400
200
0
130
290
460
710
60
70
120
Growth: China is one of the fastest-growing Internet markets
High growth witnessed in both Internet users and online spending
Internet users (m)
31%
32%
CAGR of online spending in selected countries 2012-2016
China
India
US
Japan
Germany
Brazil
CAGR
25%
5%
30%
7%
6%
22%
8%UK
Sources: CNNIC, Internet Live Stats, BCG analysis.
Number of Internet users in China grew
at 25% p.a. over the past 15 years
Chinese online spending grew at
32% p.a. over the past 5 years
32%
31%
16%
12%
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
South
Korea
France
Germany
India
China
US
Brazil
Russia
Japan

Potential: Huge potential is yet to be unlocked despite rapid
growth, with Internet penetration lagging behind G20 peers
Internet penetration of G20 countries (% as of July 2016)
20.4
34.3
45.1
50.052.0
56.4
64.765.6
69.271.2
85.585.685.786.488.088.588.5
91.192.0
52.2
India IndonesiaMexicoTurkeySouth
Africa
ChinaBrazilSaudi
Arabia
ItalyArgentinaRussiaAustraliaEUSouth
Korea
FranceGermanyCanadaUSJapanUK
Sources: Internet Live Stats.
Developed
countries
Emerging
countries

Internet-driven economy: Internet-related activities contribute
6.9% of China's GDP, among the highest in the world
China is the world's 2nd most Internet-driven economy
2.4
2.8
3.43.6
4.0
5.45.65.6
6.9
8.0
Germany Canada France Russia BrazilUSIndiaJapanChinaSouth Korea
Share of Internet-driven GDP of total GDP (%, 2016)
Note: eGDP is an indicator developed by BCG to size the Internet economy of a country. It was used for the first time in “The Connected World” series report – The Internet Economy in the G20, a
collaboration between BCG and Google in 2012. eGDP is calculated based on consumption, investment, state expenditure, imports and exports related to online retailing, network access and
equipment. South Korea and India are rank highly due to the higher output value of ICT equipment imports and exports. If these areas are excluded from the calculation, China tops the list (6.4%),
while South Korea and India drop to the 3rd (5.8%) and 8th place (3.2%) respectively
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China, BCG analysis.

Impact: The global influence of Chinese Internet players is
rising
China accounts for 5 of the 10
largest public Internet companies in the
world (as of June 30, 2017)
Chinese unicorns accounted for
29% of the world’s total unicorns
by quantity and 41% by valuation
Quantity distribution of
global unicorns
Valuation distribution of
global unicorns
China
Other
50%
29%
21%
Total #: 221
US
46%
41%
13%
Total market cap: $79.6 Bn
US
China
Other
Note: Based on CrunchBase unicorn list as of May 31, 2017, which contained 63 Chinese unicorns and 112 U.S. unicorns valued at $1Bn or more.
Sources: CrunchBase, BCG analysis.
Global Top 10 Internet public companies
by market capitalization ($bn)
64Netflix
62Baidu
Jingdong 56
NetEase 39
636Google
463Amazon
438Facebook
356Alibaba
336Tencent
92Priceline

Sources: eMarketer, Analysys International, iResearch, Company financial statements, BCG analysis.
Market structure: Market share of e-commerce and online
finance are substantially larger in China than in US
China vs the U.S.: Internet market
revenue breakdown 2016 (%, estimate)
23
23
44
27
15
3
17
6
12
U.S.China
Other business/living services
Public services
Basic applications
Online finance
Social network/entertainment
E-commerce
13
5
12

Agenda
Foreword

User demographics: Chinese Internet users are on average 14
years younger than their US counterparts
Age distribution of
Chinese Internet users 2016
Age distribution of
US Internet users 2016
Other than the younger population, the substantially lower Internet penetration
among older people has contributed to the younger Internet user base in China
User characteristics
Penetration
by age group
Penetration
by age group
12%
21%
39%
88%
91%
51%Below 20
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
Below 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-65
60+ 65+
20%
17%
17%
18%
15%
13%
30%
24%
13%
5%
24%
4%
Average age: ~28 Average age: ~42
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Otcom, BCG analysis.
66%
82%
99%
99%
93%
46%

Device preference: Chinese Internet users prefer to access
the Internet using a mobile phone; 25% are mobile-native
90
76
32
78 83
51
-20%
+12%
Tablet
-8%
Mobile Desktop / laptop
China is ahead of the US by 12.4% in mobile
phone penetration for Internet access
1 in 4 Chinese Internet users is
mobile native
11%
USChina
25%
Percentage of users who access the
Internet only on mobile (2016, %)
USChina
Penetration of devices for Internet access (2015, %)
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China, US Bureau of Census, CNNIC, Pew Research Center, ComScore, BCG analysis.

App preference: Chinese mobile Internet users are more
willing to try new apps but also drop them sooner
Number of apps installed
per Internet user 2015
China
App user retention 2015
(apps without push messaging, %)
Example: Mobile Internet users
33
36
40
32
26
46
42
39 38
Tier 3+
cities
Tier 3
cities
Tier 2
cities
Tier 1
cities
World
avg.
FranceSouth
Korea
JapanUS
15
1
22234
5
8
15
43
37
223334
5
7
11
25
1
No. of times app is used (app lifecycle)
11+1098765432
USChina
43% of apps are used only
once by Chinese Internet users
Only 15% of apps are used
11+ times by Chinese
Internet users
Sources: Google’s ”Global Mobile Research”, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Localytics, eMarketer, BCG analysis.

App preference: many apps adopted much faster in China
than in the US
2000 2005 2010 2015 2017
Social networks:
Instant
messaging 3 years
(Yet to reach 50%)
Public
services:
Ride-sharing 3 years
(Yet to reach 50%)
Online finance:
mobile
payment
(Yet to reach 50%)
4 years
E-commerce
9 years
14 years
China vs. U.S: Time to reach 50% user penetration1
Entertainment:
Online video
6 years
(Yet to reach 50%)
1. User penetration is defined as the ratio of an app’s registered users to the total number of Internet users of the year
Source: BCG analysis.

Online spending preference: Chinese Internet users shop
more frequently, both on desktop and mobile
16%
10%
48%
24%
30%
44%
6%
22%
1-4 times per month
≥1 time per week
≥1 time per day
China US
<1 time per month
24%
15%
26%
40%
28%
46%
17%
US
3%
China
Source: “Understanding e-commerce in China and the U.S.” by IAB (Interactive Advertising Bureau).
Online shopping frequency
on desktop (2016)
Online shopping frequency
on mobile (2016)

Agenda
Foreword

Competitive landscape: competition is intensifying;
ecosystems led by Internet giants are forming and expanding
vvip-u.com
Tencent
Netease
Perfect World
Ant Financial
Tencent-
Tenpay
UnionPay
Tencent
fund.eastmoney.com
Alibaba
Tencent
Weibo
immomo.com
Suning
JD
Lufax
Toutiao
Netease
iQiyi
Tencent Video
Youku Tudou
Baidu
Haosou (360 Search)
Ant Financial
Competition characteristics
CR3 of the Chinese Internet Industry by segment (%)
(The horizontal axis indicates the relative revenue of each segment; the vertical axis indicates
the market shares of top 3 players within each segment, based on revenue or transaction volume)
1. Within “Other” (companies outside of top 3), there may also be players belonging to Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent alliances; 2. DiDi: held by both Tencent and Alibaba; Baidu also became Didi's
shareholder due to prior investment in Uber, which was later acquired by DiDi; 3. All statistics are based on 2016 data.
Sources: iResearch, iiMedia, Sootoo Research, Analysys, BDR, Trustdata, annual reports, BCG analysis.
Social
media
~85%
Online
video
~55%
Online games
~60%
Search
~95%
News
~55%
Ride
sharing
~95%
Local
living
services
~85%
Online
tourism
~95%
Non-payment
Online finance
Finance
~40%
Payment
Online
finance
~85%
CtripFeizhuLY.com
DidiYidaoCARInc.
E-commerce
~90%
Meituan-DianpingKoubeiBaidu
30 60 10010 20 40 50
(Market share estimated based on revenue) (Market share estimated based on transaction volume)
Baidu alliance
Alibaba alliance
Tencent alliance
CR3
0

Competition patterns: highly fad-driven, leading to large number of
companies at peak, few survivors, and shorter company life span
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2008 2010 2012 2014
# of companies
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
# of players
0
100
200
300
400
2010 2012 2014 2016
# of players
Fad 1: Group buying Fad 2: P2P lending Fad 3: Live streaming
Note: The U.S. stats (number of companies) are synthesized based on data from Venture Radar, TechCrunch and CB insights, and cross-checked with stats from other sources. Some extent of
underestimation may exist given most data are disclosure-based.
Sources: iResearch, WDZJ.com, Wallstreet Fintech Club, Venture Radar, TechCrunch, CB Insights, BCG analysis.
Fewer than 650
a year in the U.S.
Fewer than 100
a year in the U.S.
Fewer than 50
a year in the U.S.
China U.S.

Competition patterns: On the flipside, overnight success is
more likely in China
Chinese Internet
startups:
Distribution of time
to $1bn valuation1
(1997-2017)
U.S. Internet
startups:
Distribution of time
to $1bn valuation1
(1997-2017)
1. Sample contains 63 Chinese and 112 US unicorn companies which were founded during 1997-2015
0
10
20
30
40
10 yrs
above
3%
10 yrs
3%
9 yrs
6%
8 yrs
0%
7 yrs
5%
6 yrs
2%
5 yrs
5%
4 yrs
19%
3 yrs
11%
2 yrs
35%
1 yr
11%
0
10
20
10 yrs
above
19%
10 yrs
4%
9 yrs
7%
8 yrs
12%
7 yrs
10%
6 yrs
8%
5 yrs
11%
4 yrs
16%
3 yrs
5%
2 yrs
8%
1 yr
1%
~46% unicorns made it within 2 years
~9% unicorns made it within 2 years
Avg: 4 yrs
Avg: 7 yrs
Average time to unicorn: 4 years
Average time to unicorn: 7 years

Agenda
Foreword

Key characteristics of the Chinese Internet economy
China is one of the two largest global Internet markets, exerting a significant influence
• China has an Internet user base of 710m, almost equivalent to India and the US combined, and
generates the second most online spending in the world
• China ranks highly in terms of the quantity and valuation of Internet giants and unicorns
The Chinese Internet market developed rapidly in the past and still has substantial future
growth potential.
• In recent years, the number of Internet users has been growing at 25% p.a. and online spending
has been growing at 32% p.a.
• Huge potential is yet to be unlocked with only 52% Internet penetration, among the lowest in the
G20
Adoption of many Internet products and services in China quicker than in the US
• Transaction volume of mobile payments in China has reached 70 times that of the US, many
emerging apps in China achieved >50% user coverage within three years
• China has younger Internet users, who are more willing to try new apps and services
The Chinese Internet market is highly dynamic and volatile
• Fierce competition between a vast number of players accelerates and magnifies the emergence,
peak, and decline of each fad, leading to shorter industry life cycles, higher market volatility, and
shorter company life spans
Rapid
development
Large scale and
unique
Highly dynamic
and volatile

Key questions concerning the Chinese Internet economy
Question 1: How has the Chinese Internet market maintained
such strong growth despite its large scale?
Question 2: Why is the Chinese Internet market so dynamic
and volatile?
Question 3: What are the key factors for success in the Chinese
Internet market? Why have so many global giants failed in this
market?
Question 4: How will the characteristics of the Chinese
Internet market evolve in the future?
Question 5: What will be the impact of more Chinese Internet
companies going global?

Agenda
Foreword

Internet
industry
Impacted
industries with
high transparency
e.g. IT, Mobile,
Internet
Impacted almost
all industries
Three core driving forces have propelled the Chinese Internet
boom, of which "leapfrogging" is the most important
Industries impacted by each driving force
Overall
economic
dividend
• Demographic dividend: a considerable base of
young consumers
• Talent dividend: large supply of cheap engineers
• Capital dividend: loose monetary policy and
vibrant capital market
• Infrastructure dividend: significant government-
led investment in infrastructure
2
High
transparency
• Open information: Internet-based products, services, and
business models enable fast info and knowledge transmission
• Shared resources: open source allows for faster technological
advancement
3
“Leapfrog
ging”
• Compared with developed countries, many traditional industries in China are backward
and have underserved needs and room for growth (e.g. retail coverage, non-cash
payments etc.)
• Internet-based solutions solve these pain points outright and have even become the
predominant force in some domains
1

Unlike mature nations, underdeveloped traditional industries
in China created leapfrog growth opportunities for the Internet
Role of the Internet
Two types of development paths
Timeline
Industry efficiency
Industrial era Internet eraIT era
“Leapfrogging”3
• Limited room for development given
maturity of traditional industries;
consumer habits well established
• The Internet produced incremental
industry upgrades on top of existing
solid foundations
“Incremental upgrading”
• Market maturity was still low when
China entered the Internet era, with
ample underserved segments and
room for development in traditional
industries
• Internet-based solutions achieved
“leapfrog growth” by addressing these
pain points and filling market voids,
and even became the predominant
force in some domains
"Leapfrogging"

The impact of "leapfrogging" is reflected in the unique structure of
the Chinese Internet market
For example, e-commerce and online finance represent a big proportion of the market
China vs. the US: Internet revenue
breakdown 2016 (%)
China vs. the US: Online finance
revenue breakdown 2016 (%)
32
83
34
13
34
Other
(Incl. third-party
online payment,
online asset
management,
online insurance)
Online lending
Mobile payment
US
4
China
23
23
44
27
15
3
17
6
13
12
China
12
E-commerce1
Social network/
Entertainment2
US
5
Other commercial/
living services6
Online finance3
Basic applications4
Public services5
1.E-commerce includes C2C, B2C and B2B e-commerce; 2.Social network/entertainment include social media, online games, online video and online music; 3.Online finance includes 3rd party online
payment, mobile payment, online asset management, online credit, online insurance; 4.Basic applications include maps and online news; 5.Public services include ride sharing, online healthcare and
online education; 6. Other business/living services include online tourism and local living services.
Note: Percentages are calculated based on revenue by segment; 3rd party online payment within online finance has some overlaps with other online transactions
Sources: eMarketer, Analysys International, iResearch, company financial statements, BCG analysis.
A
B

When e-commerce started in China, offline retail had low
coverage, and was highly fragmented and inefficient
Compared with the US, offline retail in China was not
mature enough to fully address consumer demands
Insufficient offline retail coverage...
Majority of market occupied by fragmented
and inefficient independent channels
Retail floor space per thousand ppl (m2, 2005) Groceries sales channel breakdown (2005)
1 2
USAChina
Chain retail channel
Independent
retail channel, i.e.
mom-and-pop stores
China USA
18
1,150
1,100
1,050
50
0
1,105
47%
82%
53%
18%
E-commerceA
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics, Euromonitor, BCG analysis.

The rise of e-commerce compensated for the under-coverage
and efficiency gaps in offline retail
E-commerce leveraged the rapidly
penetrating Internet to serve nationwide
E-commerce bypassed distribution layers
to deliver highly efficient transactions
Sources: World Bank, CNNIC, National Bureau of Statistics, Ali Research analysis, BCG analysis.
201120102009
Online retail
Offline retail
Transaction efficiency of online retail versus offline retail
(taking 2009–2011 data as an example)
Sales output per 1 RMB of input (RMB)
Internet coverage 2005-2015
(penetration in population, %)
50
34
9
65
51
14
74
72
68
201520102005
US
China(urban)
China
E-commerceA

The unique demographic environment enabled efficient logistics,
facilitating e-commerce development
Massive supply of low-cost labor
Higher Chinese residential density
greatly boosted logistics efficiency
Average courier salary
2016 ($/hour)
Number of couriers
2016 (10K)
China vs. US: population density 2016 (ppl/km²)
4
13
0
5
10
15
USChina
72
203
0
50
100
150
200
250
USChina
143
34
0
50
100
150
China US
E-commerceA
Sources: Glassdoor, BCG analysis.

Therefore, e-commerce "leapfrogged"; China's e-commerce
share of total retail sales was 1.5x the U.S. in 2016
16.4
13.8
9.9
6.5
4.3
2.5
1.0
0.30.20.2
10.1
9.2
8.4
7.6
6.7
6.0
5.2
4.64.34.0
~1.5x
2016201520142013201220112010200920082007
China vs US: online retail as % of total retail sales
China outpaced the
U.S. for the first time
in e-commerce
penetration
USChina
E-commerceA
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Euromonitor, Ali research, BCG analysis.

When mobile payments were introduced, cash dominated offline transactions
in China, while the US had a well-established credit card ecosystem
Mobile paymentsB
Payment methods in China vs the US in 2011 (%)
65
26
17
41
18
14
19
Others
(e.g. checks)
USChina
Online
Cash
Credit card
Sources: Euromonitor, BCG analysis.

Consumers were not used to paying by credit card due to
weak payment infrastructure and low credit card penetration
Underdeveloped payment infrastructure
with low POS penetration
China vs US: No. of POS terminals per 10,000 people 2011
36
287US
China
Low penetration of credit cards
Rationales
• Large number of micro businesses: many micro
businesses are not qualified to apply for POS terminals due
to complicated application criteria and procedure
• Stringent review by acquirers on issuance of POS: :
acquirers in China are strict with issuance of POS terminals
given precedent of POS fraud
Sources: Payment & Clearing Association of China, BCG analysis.
0.2
1.7US
China
China versus US: No. of credit cards per person 2011
• Underdeveloped individual credit scoring system: a
complicated review process is required for card applicants
given inadequate credit scoring records
• Late adoption of credit card and consumer education
in early stage: China is a late adopter of credit cards and
consumers are less aware of credit card usage
Mobile paymentsB

Mobile payments directly replaced cash payments and
achieved explosive growth in China
Sources: BCG Global Payments Model, Forrester Research, eMarketer, Euromonitor Passport, BCG analysis.
Payment method 2015 vs. 2011 (%)
... with the transaction volume
surging to 70x that of the US by 2016
Mobile payments rose as the substitute
for cash payment in China...
3rd-party mobile payment value ($bn)
8,521 ~70x
U.S.
112
China
Mobile paymentsB
47
65
24 26
25
17
49 41
17 18
14
1410
19
12
Cash
Credit card
Mobile
Online
Other
(e.g. checks)
2011
U.S.
2015
U.S.
1
2011
China
2015
China
1
Online
Mobile
Credit
card
Cash
Other

Agenda
Foreword

Chinese Internet companies focus more on application-driven than tech-
driven innovation, according to a survey of around 40 industry experts1
1. Including 15 experts from Baidu, 15 experts from Alibaba, 5 experts from DiDi, and 5 experts from BCG. Survey was based on CrunchBase unicorn list as of May 31, 2017, which contained 63
Chinese unicorns and 112 U.S. unicorns valued at $1Bn or more.
Application-
driven
innovation
90% 61%
39%
10%
Tech-driven
innovation
Key sources of
value creation
Companies that create
value from content, apps,
and business model
innovations, and applying
or optimizing mature
technologies
Companies that invent
technologies or create
value principally from
technologies
57
6
68
44

Though they are application-driven, Chinese Internet companies have made
many unique innovations by combining of tech with app and business model
Security
solution
Payment
method
Wealth mgmt
User experience
Alipay’s innovations as an example (compared with Paypal)
Media of
payment
Unique innovations by Alipay
Useracquisition
"Express
Payment"
"Escrow
transactions"
(E.g. QR
payment,
fingerprint
payment, facial
refonition
payment... )
C2B
commercial
transactions
Medical
Shared bikes
Chain stores & supermarkets
Education
Insurance
Catering consumption
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/ /
C2G public
transactions
eGovernment
Utility bill
Transportation
“Ant Forest”
…
Caring donation
/
/
/
C2C personal
transactions
…
AA payment
Transfer
Red envelope
Paypal.me
/
/
Sources: Ant Financial, Literature research, BCG analysis.
Credit scoring
Yu'ebaoPaypal MMF
Credit-based everyday item lending
Credit-based lodging
Credit-based cell phone leasing
Consumer loan &
instalment
“Sesame Credit”
PayPal Credit
/
/
/
/ Credit-based cell phone plans
Tourism
/
…

Alipay's many unique innovations were driven by market
requirements with Chinese characteristics
Market requirement with
Chinese characteristics
E-commerce had just been introduced into
China; lack of trust between online consumers
and merchants
Certain domains in China are
immature, therefore require
innovative solutions which can
make up for the missing pieces
and achieve immediate results
Online/offline integrated
application scenarios can be
leveraged to realize fastest
customer acquisition
Starting point
Complicated online banking procedures and
poor user experience
To acquire customers within a short time by
developing a variety of application scenarios
Lack of well-established individual credit
scoring infrastructure
Unique Alipay
innovations
1
2
C2Bcommercialtrade&
C2Gpublictrade
Insurance
…
Transportation
Education
Healthcare
eGovernment
Utility bill
Shared bike
Credit-based cell
phone leasing
Credit-based
everyday item
lending
Credit-based
lodging
“Express Payment”
Escrow transaction
Creditreference
(“SesameCredit”)
Security
solution
Payment
method
Credit-based cell
phone plans

13
26
43
4
23
11
11
0
Alipay's healthcare application case: integration of online and offline
outpatient process to optimize traditional healthcare services
Registration
Waiting
for inquiry
Inspection &
payment
Inspection
report claim
Inquiry Inspection
Medical
consultation
Medicine dispensing/
treatment
Payment for
medication
Doctor-patient
interactionOnline
Offline
Move
certain
steps of
the
outpatient
process
online
Total
outpatient
process
shortened
by 60%
on
average
Sources: Alibaba, Literature research, BCG analysis.
Registration to consultationWaiting for registration Consultation to payment Payment to dispensing
Alipay
channel
42
Traditional
channel
90
1 2 3
Case study: Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center
Average time spent by a patient in hospital (minutes)
No more waiting for registration
• Selection of department (doctor)
and time slot
• Payment and registration on
Alipay
• Reminder of registered time and
attention items
• Queuing status of current
department viewable on mobile
Reduced the time from registration to
consultation by ~40%
• Notification on when to see doctors and get
drugs
• Inquiry of the queuing status on mobile phone
• Real-time inspection bill alert and one-click
payment
• Redirection to diagnosis room for inspection
after completion of payment
• Real-time e-diagnosis report available on
mobile
Reduced the time from consultation to
payment by ~80%
• Real-time medicine billing alerts and
one-click payment
• Redirection to pharmacy for drug claim
after completion of payment
• Detailed bill breakdown available on
mobile and one-click payment of the out-
of-pocket portion

Company innovation behaviors driven by Chinese market
requirements lead to higher market dynamics and volatility
Market requirement
with Chinese
characteristics
Certain domains in China
are immature, therefore
require innovative
solutions which can make
up for the missing pieces
and achieve immediate
results
Online/offline integrated
application scenarios can
be leveraged to realize
fastest customer
acquisition
1
2
Innovation behaviors
of companies
Impact on the Chinese
Internet market
Lower innovation threshold,
larger quantity of players,
fads being more easily
formed
More frequent innovation,
more product and
application variations, higher
market volatility
Focus on micro innovation
and modification-based
innovation
Emphasis on immediate
results and implementation
Focus on online and offline
integration

Agenda
Foreword

Unique KSFs are required for Internet players to succeed in
the unique Chinese market
Localization
(“China-for-
China”)
capabilities
Quick market
response
Online/offline
integration
capabilities
Ecosystem
building
capabilities
1
2
3
4
KSFs
• Different economic, social and cultural environments lead to huge deviation in user needs
between China and the US.
• Multi-level economic and social structures lead to highly diverse user needs within China
• The Chinese Internet's focus on application-driven innovation poses requirement for
companies to have in-depth understanding of Chinese consumer needs and customize
product offerings
• Application-driven market leads to more micro and modification-based innovations
• Such micro and modification-based innovations require staying close to changes in consumer
demand, agility to market, and immediate results
• In some domains, the Chinese Internet companies played the role of driving "leapfrogging"
of traditional industries and had to engage in offline operations
• To quickly expand scale, Chinese Internet companies need an offline team to develop
business and educate the market
• To achieve "leapfrog growth", Chinese Internet players need to build integrated
online/offline ecosystems in vertical sectors
• The Chinese Internet market features “ecosystem-based competition,” which requires
companies to have strong ecosystem capabilities
An Internet market with Chinese characteristics

Quick market response case study: QQ vs MSN
QQ vs. MSN: MSN launched 4 key offerings later than QQ
and was slow in handling Chinese customer complaints
1. QQ giant attachment supports online transmission of files no larger than 1 Gigabyte.
Sources: zol.com, Literature research.
Launched QQ
group chat offering
OICQ was launched
with offline messaging
functionality
Launched online drive
offering
Launched "QQ giant
attachment1"
functionality
2008 2010 20141995 20001999 2004 2005
9 years late in
launching offline
messaging
4 years late in
launching online drive
6 years late in
launching group chat
5 years late in
launching large file
transfer
Launched large file
transmission
functionality
• Launched offline messaging
functionality
• Launched Windows Live
SkyDrive
• Launched group chat offering
MSN officially
left the
Chinese
market
MSN was
launched
2

Online/offline integration capability case study: The Chinese
Internet is more demanding for offline operations than the U.S.
O2O
take-out
service
P2P
Short-
term
lodging
~1000
Tens of
thousands
~30k
~1500
~5000
~60
• Own and outsourcing
take-out delivery team
• Limited involvement
in delivery
• Offline branches to
enhance customer
acquisition and risk
control
• Online customer
acquisition and risk
control
• Offering online search
and booking services,
an offline apartments
and related services
• Mostly an online
platform to bridge
tenants and house
owners
China vs. the U.S. by
team size of Internet companies
3

Ecosystem building case study: Didi's powerful ecosystem is
an indispensable contributor to its success
Didi's ecosystem
GPS
Navigation
Payment
• Partners with the top 3 mobile map apps in China
• Over 500 million mobile users
• Over 40 million daily active users
Marketing
channels
• WeChat wallet drives traffic to Didi; WeChat users can use Didi car-hailing
service without installing the Didi app
• Red packet sharing feature, enabling one-click sharing with friends on
WeChat, Moments, Weibo, and Alipay
• After payment using WeChat, the user will be automatically subscribed to the
Didi public WeChat account
• Didi’s official Weibo account has 1.91 million followers, creating strong word
of mouth
• Hundreds of millions of monthly active payment users
4

Agenda
Foreword

Chinese Internet market characteristics: future trends
Overall rapid
development will
continue, with
certain driving
forces weakening
Overall economic dividend will decline, but the other driving forces shall remain
• Demographic dividend（ ↓）: the aging of population will continue and reduce advantages in younger demographics
• Talent dividend（ - ）: the reflux of overseas talents will accelerate, but advantage in labor cost will shrink
• Capital dividend（ ↓）: monetary policy is expected to tighten a bit, and capital market will mature and rationalize
• Infrastructure dividend( - ): government-led and policy-promoted investment in infrastructure will continue
Leading Internet players, e.g. BAT have laid strong foundations for future development of the industry and
accelerated emergence of new players
New development
models will create
new rapid
development
opportunities
Advantages derived from "leapfrogging" will help Chinese Internet players lead the way in new
development models
• For example, the core of New Retail model lies in deep integration of online and offline
• Advantages derived from “leapfrogging”: The role of the Internet offers new solutions to address
needs that are underserved by traditional industries, therefore Chinese Internet companies have
naturally focused on online and offline integration and ecosystem building
Alibaba is a showcase of a Chinese Internet player as a fast mover with a new development
model
Market will remain
dynamic but be
less volatile
Chinese Internet players are likely to shift from application-driven to tech-driven innovation. Take AI for
example:
• China is almost able to compete with US and Japan in AI technology
• The massive user base and wide variety of application scenarios in China will reinforce the AI technology
optimization cycle
The gradual shift to tech-driven innovation will to some extent change market behaviors and stabilize the
market
1
2
3

BAT have laid the foundation for the future development of the
industry and accelerated the emergence of new Internet players
Sources: Baidu, BCG analysis.
Shared bikes: reliance on strong foundations to achieve rapid go-to-market and explosive growth
E.g. Leading shared bike player OFO received total orders of over 5 million one year after its launch,
and over 10 million another 3 months later
User habits
Transaction behaviors
formed via development
of new communication
technologies (e.g. QR
code payments)
Mobile payment
Pervasive third-party
mobile payment tools
(WeChat Payment,
Alipay) covering online
and offline scenarios
Traffic entrance
Hundreds of millions of
customers on WeChat
and Alipay’s platforms
offer a massive user
base for emerging apps
(users don’t have to
download these apps)
Location based
service
Electronic fence solution
for better management
of shared bikes
1 Overall rapid development will continue

Advantages from “leapfrogging” will help Chinese Internet
players pioneer new development models in certain sectors
“Pure e-commerce will vanish soon. When the
moment comes, ‘e-commerce’ will be replaced by
‘new retail’...”
Jack Ma at Alibaba’s 2016 Computing Conference
“Ubiquitous consumption scenarios” –
Integrating online/offline channels
“Digitalized consumers” –
Creating consistent customer experience
“Production starts upon receiving the order” –
Operating efficiently end to end
...can help Chinese Internet players pioneer new
development models (for example "new retail")
Advantages derived from “leapfrogging”
(E-commerce for example)...
Chinese e-commerce players have put more effort into
offline services given weak infrastructure
• Natural focus on online/offline integration, leading
to a more complete ecosystem
• A holistic data chain covering sales, payment and
finance, which offers insights into consumer demand
trends and can help optimize product planning and
supply chain, and enable efficient end-to-end
operations
• Logistics networks of fast response and broad
coverage, which benefits inter-channel integration and
customer experience optimization
• Highly open retail ecosystem, which can adapt to
different market conditions
a
b
c
2 New development models will bring new opportunities
Sources: Ali Research, BCG analysis.

Chinese players made good progress in new dvpmt models
e.g. Alibaba proposed the new concept of "5 new forces1 and a fair competition environment"
New
Retail
• Worked with Nestle to create “FLIPSIDE Cafe” and leveraged big data mining and
estimation to boost sales conversions. Tmall flagship store achieved 20x of usual sales
volume on day 1.
• Launched TAO CAFE, a self-service cafe that tracks consumer in-store behaviors and
continuously improves the customer experience based on big data analytics
• Launched Hema Supermarket to integrate online and offline channels, by first setting up
offline stores to establish brand awareness and then directing consumers online
New
manu-
facturing
• Tmall has established partnerships with 40 brands in 7 industries on custom manufacturing,
e.g. with:
– Mondelez on snack packaging, Malianghang on sound wave rings, Budweiser on
recording bottles etc.
• Helped SOGAL leverage big data for custom manufacturing to improve user experience,
delivery speed, and inventory efficiency
New
Financial
services
• Ant Financial is committed to offering inclusive financial services
• Over the past six years, Ant Microfinance has lent over 1tn RMB to small and micro
businesses, with an average loan balance below RMB 30,000; over 1.75 million of the
borrowers were in the agriculture business
"5 new forces1 and a fair
competition environment" Progress and interim results
2
1. Composed of New Retail, New Manufacturing, New Financial Services, New Energy, and New Technology
Sources: Ali Research, Literature research.
New development models will bring new opportunities

We have noticed the rising trend of Chinese companies
shifting from application-driven to tech-driven innovation
China ranks 2nd for the
number of AI companies
Number of AI companies (2016)
Number of AI patent applications
has surpassed Japan
Number of AI patent applications (2016)
Source: Wuzhen Institute.
83132136160173228233
366
709
2,905
SwitzerlandSpainFranceGermanyIsraelCanadaIndiaUKChinaUS
578597
1,8032,3102,459
4,0534,386
14,604
15,745
26,891
AustriaAustralia RussiaUKSouth
Korea
CanadaGermanyJapanChinaUS
65% of AI companies in
the world are in the U.S,
China and UK
The U.S, China, and
Japan applied for 74%
of AI patents globally
3 Market will remain dynamic but will be less volatile

0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China leads in the number of published papers and cited
papers in deep learning
No. of cited papers on deep learning1No. of published papers on deep learning
However, China still lags behind the US in the quantity and quality
of breakthrough research, and the influence of research
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China
US
UK
Australia
Canada
Japan Australia
UK
JapanUSA
China Canada
3
1. The statistics do not exclude number of self-citations. If excluded, China would rank the 2nd place by number of citied deep learning related papers in 2015 (second only to the US).
Sources: Web of Science - White House, Wuzhen Institute, Sinovation Ventures, Scimago Journal.
Market will remain dynamic but will be less volatile

Leading Chinese players have also made achievements in
algorithms and open source platforms
Open source platform:
Baidu’s PaddlePaddle, Apollo
In 2016, Baidu open-sourced PaddlePaddle, a
deep learning algorithm platform developed in
2013, and achieved fast iteration and upgrades
by applying the platform to ~30 Baidu products
and services
• E.g. estimated delivery time of take-outs,
prediction of occurrence of online drive failures,
accurate recommendation of information,
identification and classification of massive
images, virus and spam detection, machine
translation and autonomous driving etc.
Demonstrated fast growth and dynamic activities
despite short time since open-source
• PaddlePaddle generated 1326 topics within nine
months after going open-source
Machine translation: Baidu's Neural
Machine Translation (NMT) system
Baidu launched its Neural Machine Translation (NMT)
system in May 2015
• It only took Baidu 8 months from ideation (in Sep. 2014)
to the launch of Internet-based NMT system (May 2015)
NMT has significant technological highlights
"Unlike traditional approaches which separate sentences
into small pieces, NMT makes full use of contextual
information to code and decode the sentence as a whole so
as to generate more a fluent translation"
—Hua WU, Chairman of Technical Committee (TC), Baidu
“Baidu launched the world’s first Internet NMT. Google and
Microsoft didn't launch similar systems until September
2016”
—Hua WU, Chairman of Technical Committee (TC), Baidu
Paddle
Paddle
Apollo
Launched Project Apollo to provide an open,
complete & reliable platform for its partners in
automotive/autonomous driving sectors
Will build an ecosystem consisting of OEMs,
ADAS manufacturers, and suppliers of sensors
and other auto components
3
Sources: Baidu, Literature research.

In April 2017, Baidu announced
Project Apollo to create an open platform for
autonomous driving technologies
Open source model may help Baidu realize
leapfrog growth in autonomous driving solutions
As an Internet company lacking in manufacturing
expertise, Baidu will complete its ecosystem using an
open source model. Baidu can exchange technology for
data, which will promote its technological advancement.
Compared with their US counterparts, Chinese Internet
companies have advantages in their open source model as
they have closer relationship with OEMs.
• Traditional manufacturing in China is still underdeveloped,
thus OEMs are more willing to embrace and partner with
Internet companies. An example is the strategic partnership
between Baidu and Chery Automobile.
– “Chery and Baidu have jointly developed 20 L4-level
autonomous cars. We will further cooperation with
Baidu on technology sharing and R&D collaboration."—
Lu Weiyi, President of the Research Institute, Chery
Automobile
Case study: Baidu’s Project Apollo provides an open, complete and
reliable platform for automotive/autonomous driving partners
Project plan
“Baidu will provide its OEM and autonomous driving
partners with an open, complete and secure software
platform; offer a complete SW/HW and service
system suite composed of a vehicle platform, a HW
platform, a SW platform, and cloud data services;
open code or capabilities in environment
perception, route planning, vehicle control and in-
vehicle OS, as well as the full set of development and
testing tools; select and ally with vehicle and sensor
partners with the highest synergy and compatibility so
as to lower the entry barrier and help traditional
OEMs set up their own autonomous driving systems
more quickly.”
Baidu is the first company of its kind in the world to open up its own
technologies and platforms and share capabilities to such an extent.
Progress
Over 60 auto companies and over 200 models have
joined Baidu’s platform. Baidu is building an ecosystem
consisting of OEMs, ADAS manufacturers, and
suppliers of sensors and other components.
3

Application
The massive user base and rich variety of applications will
reinforce each other and accelerate algorithm optimization
• Over 10m user profile tags; over 100m multi-round dialog
requests/global total POIs
• Over 1bn knowledge graph entities/speech/audio
• Over 10bn knowledge/search requests/videos
• Over 100bn images; over 1tn web pages
Com-
puting
power
Reinforcement cycle
B. Massive
amount of
data
generated
by huge
user base
Numerous
use cases
thanks to
complexity
and
unique
characteris
tics of the
Chinese
market
a
b
a
Data
b
Algo-
rithm
More
accurate
algorithms
promote
wider
application
Massive
amounts of
data
accelerate
algorithm
optimization
Quality
applications
generate
massive
amounts of
data
Baidu’s DuerOS
Customized
voice solutions
for smart TV
sets, set-top-box,
projector, etc.
Smart
TV
DuerOS-
powered smart
speaker helps
users access
entertainment
resources
efficiently
Smart
speaker
Low-cost and
energy-
conservative
smart toys allow
device and
module
manufacturers to
accelerate
product updates
Smart
toys
Allow wearables
to have real
intelligence and
be able to deliver
hands-free
services
Smart
wearables
Phone
understands
what the user
says and acts as
a personal
assistant to help
the user handle
their busy
lifestyle
Smartphones
Dialog-based AI system DuerOS
Info search
Useful tools
Chat & leisure
Mobile phone
instructions
Lifestyle
services
Personal
assistant
Smart home
Knowledge &
education
~100
capabilities
in 10
categories
3

Agenda
Foreword

53% 54%
36%
11%
47% 46%
64%
89%
95% 99%
FacebookAmazon1 Alibaba Tencent
5% 1%
Baidu
Domestic
Overseas
Google
Though they are late to expand globally, Chinese Internet players have
started to explore overseas markets with established domestic leadership
Alibaba
Baidu
Didi
• Globalization strategy for five businesses: e-commerce, Ant Financial, Cainiao,
cloud computing, and the UC web browser
• Main strategy is to promote its technology and services as well as to invest in
local players in overseas markets
• Aims to generate 50% of total GMV overseas by 2025
2016 revenue breakdown
(domestic vs overseas)
• Globalization of car hailing app: mainly through investment and strategic
alliances
• Exploration around international tourism (e.g. overseas car rental)
• International collaboration on emerging technology R&D (e.g. AI, big data)
• Set up Globalization Business Unit to roll out Didi’s products, technologies and
services globally
1. The domestic market of Amazon includes North America; and revenue from software is not included in operating revenue (<10%)
Sources: Company reports, Literature research, BCG analysis.
Tencent
• Social networks: mainly promote WeChat and invest in local instant messaging
software companies; prioritize emerging markets such as SE Asia, including
Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia
• Games: make acquisitions globally and form strategic alliances
• Tencent cloud: establish overseas service nodes & data centers to provide
cloud services abroad
• Baidu leveraged its edges in software development, strategic acquisition &
machine learning to offer AI-powered global products, and became the first
Chinese Internet player in AI sector to go global
• Prioritize markets with large population or emerging economies with huge
growth potential (e.g. US, Japan, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, Egypt)
• Build localized content platform, and use AI to empower products (e.g. Input
method, DAP ad. Platforms...); 2 billion users across ~200 countries and
regions, and 360 million monthly active users across the globe
Chinese Internet giants currently only
generate a small proportion of
revenue overseas
But they have gradually shifted their
strategic focus to overseas expansion

The unique characteristics of the Chinese Internet market will
indirectly influence how Chinese companies expand overseas
Unique characteristics of
Chinese Internet market
As reflected in behaviors of
overseas expansion
Impact on Chinese
Internet company
characteristics
Chinese Internet players have tended to approach overseas expansion with a more flexible model in
recent years, e.g. strategic investment, shareholding, alliances to quickly adapt to local markets
"Leapfrogging", developing
rapidly in an immature
market,
filling market voids
Application-driven,
highly dynamic and volatile
market environment
Role and value prop:
Proficient at
addressing pain
points of traditional
industries in an
immature market
Business logic:
Emphasis on
staying close to the
market, quick
response, and
immediate results
• More active in helping shape market environment, e.g.
investing in infrastructure (logistics, warehousing,
etc.), working with governments to solve social
problems
• Attach equal importance to online and offline
business development
• Prefer to enter markets similar to China (featured by
large scale, strong local demand, immaturity in
traditional industries), replicate China success, and
build up ecosystems
• More willing to work with partners to strike a balance
between control and responsiveness, and create win-
win results
• Tend to keep local partner brands and teams, to
ensure market recognition and responsiveness to
local market demand
• Open up various resources (customers, businesses,
etc.) on its own platform to the local partner

Alibaba case study: actively investing in local mobile payment providers
in India and SE Asia and coaching them into local market leaders
In November 2016, Ant Financial
signed a strategic partnership
agreement with Ascend Money,
a Thai payment player, to
replicate the inclusive financial
services model to Thailand
In February 2017, Ant Financial
invested in Mynt, the largest
fintech company in Philippines,
which owns GCash, the nation’s
largest e-wallet with over 3
million users
On April 12, 2017, Ant Financial
announced a JV with Indonesia’s
Emtek Group to co-develop
mobile payment products
1. Data as of H1 2017
Sources: TechCrunch, People’s Daily, BCG analysis.
• Alibaba has been pushing forward
“Mashangtao” strategy (a QR code
based shopping experience) since 2014
• Ant Financial was the first to launch
the concept of “QR code Payment”,
which has now become a mainstream
payment method in China
Ant Financial: a pioneer
in QR code payment
Helped Paytm to become
the world’s 3rd largest
mobile payment platform
Shareholding & investment
• Invested in Paytm, a payment platform
under Indian company One97 in 2015,
and became the biggest shareholder
Technology transfer
• Paytm became the first Indian company
to adopt QR code payment
• Ant Financial helped Paytm to build up
risk management system
People training
• Established Ant Technical University to
provide training courses tailored to
local partners
• Set up personnel certification standards
to facilitate the formation of industry
standards and practices for mobile
payment
Acquired 74% market share,
220m mobile payment
users1, and more than 2m
merchants in India

Impact of the overseas expansion of Chinese Internet
companies on the global Internet market
Impact on local Internet companies
Adopt an open attitude to consider win-win
opportunities, faced with Chinese entrants
• Capital: can we obtain strategic capital (for marketing,
customer acquisition, subsidy) or make jointly
investment in infrastructure (e.g. logistics, warehouses,
etc.)?
• Key technology/growth experience: can we acquire key
technologies, talents with well-rounded online/offline
expertise, and company growth experience?
• Platform resources: can we persuade the Chinese
partner to open up resources including customers and
merchants on their own platforms?
Must be prepared for the potential impact of new
Chinese entrants, such as massive subsidies,
ecosystem restructuring, and develop solutions in
advance.
Impact on global Internet giants
Consider how to partner with Chinese Internet
companies in emerging markets
• Tencent, Microsoft and eBay jointly invested in the
Indian e-commerce player Flipkart in 2017. Besides
financial investment, Tencent will also be involved in
strategies to create synergies between social media
and e-commerce
• Didi became an investor and partner of global top 7
leading ride-sharing players including Uber, Lyft, Grab,
Ola, 99, Taxify, and Careem
Learn from the different business logic of Chinese
players, especially in emerging markets—how to adapt
flexibly to local conditions, and better overcome
challenges of immature markets
• Cooperate with local brands and ecosystems
• Operate offline teams and invest in improving
infrastructure

Authors and steering committee
Authors
Shu Li Boston Consulting Group Partner and Managing Director li.shu@bcg.com
Francois Candelon Boston Consulting Group Senior Partner and Managing Director candelon.francois@bcg.com
Daniel Wu Boston Consulting Group Principal
Jeffrey Wu Boston Consulting Group Project Leader
Cynthia Hu Boston Consulting Group Consultant
Alex Ho Boston Consulting Group Consultant
Xin Cheng AliResearch Senior Expert longhai.cx@alibaba-inc.com
Fei Song AliResearch Senior Expert fei.song@alibaba-inc.com
Zhoupei Xie AliResearch Senior Expert zhoupei.xiezp@alibaba-inc.com
Linli Huang Baidu Development Research Center Director huanglinli@baidu.com
Qiang Wang Baidu Development Research Center Senior Researcher wangqiang23@baidu.com
Steering Committee
Francois Candelon Boston Consulting Group Senior Partner and Managing Director
Shu Li Boston Consulting Group Partner and Managing Director
Derek Kennedy Boston Consulting Group Senior Partner and Managing Director
Jean-Francois Van
Kerckhove
Boston Consulting Group Partner and Managing Director
Hongbing Gao Alibaba Group VP, Director of AliResearch
Cheng Zhao Baidu Chief Editor, GM of Public Affairs

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