Demographic Dividend
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The document discusses India's growing population and changing demographics, noting that while India will have a large working age population until 2050, many adults have low educational attainment. It questions whether hundreds of millions of poorly educated workers can be absorbed into high-growth sectors like manufacturing, IT, finance, and services given their educational backgrounds. However, it concludes that continued economic growth could still create opportunities for all, and that with improved education, more opportunities would open up, though the potential demographic dividend could have been larger.
Demographic Dividend
- 1. Demographic Dividend: Education and Occupations Laveesh Bhandari Aparna Panwar Indicus Analytics
- 2. Growing Population 2005 – 1,076 million 2020 - 1,341 million 2050 - 1,592 million
- 4. Working Age Population
- 5. So what? Large Numbers in working age group Likely to remain till about 2050 Low but changing dependency But what about their educational backgrounds?
- 6. Some things well known Between 40-50% of those enrolled drop out of school before completing upper primary Quality of schooling extremely poor Most who are ‘literate’ can barely read and write their own name What is likely to be the ‘ quality of the dividend’?
- 7. Educational Distribution (20-60 Age Group)
- 8. Would the dividend be realized? What will the hundreds of millions of poorly educated do? Not Agriculture given expected productivity improvements Not organized manufacturing Not IT, not BPO, not R&D, not Financial sector, not sales and marketing Are things really that bleak?
- 10. What can we predict? High growth can create opportunities for all Better educational/skill attainment would open many more opportunities Numbers too large for the govt. to subsidize Yes there is a dividend coming But it could have been much larger
- 11. Thank You