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Developer-Related Factors in Change
Prediction:An Empirical Assessment
May 22 and 23
Buenos Aires - Argentina
Gemma Catolino*, Fabio Palomba°, Andrea De Lucia*,
Filomena Ferrucci*, Andy Zaidman°
*University of Salerno, °Delft University of Technology
CHANGE is unavoidable
Knowing in advancethe code elements potentially exhibiting
a higher change-proneness is crucialfor developers
CHANGE
PREDICTION
Effective technique to identify the classes more
prone to be modified in the future
PREDICTION
CHANGE
LITERATURE
PREDICTION
CHANGE
Factors influencing
the phenomenon
LITERATURE
PREDICTION
CHANGE
Factors influencing
the phenomenon
Product and
evolution
metrics influencing
the phenomenon
LITERATURE
PREDICTION
CHANGE
Factors influencing
the phenomenon
Devising
Prediction Models
Product and
evolution
metrics influencing
the phenomenon
LITERATURE
Developer-related factors
non-focused developers could introduce maintainability
pitfalls that lead to increase the change-proneness of the
modified classes
Developer-factor can be a useful source of information
to predict classes more likely to be changed in the future
BASIC CODE
CHANGE MODEL
Entropy of changes
applied by
developers in a given
time period
Developer-related factors
DEVELOPER
CHANGE BASED
MODEL
Developers structural
and
semantic scattering
Developer-related factors
BASIC CODE
CHANGE MODEL
Entropy of changes
applied by
developers in a given
time period
DEVELOPER
MODEL
Number of developers
who modified a code
component in a give
time period
Developer-related factors
DEVELOPER
CHANGE BASED
MODEL
Developers structural
and
semantic scattering
BASIC CODE
CHANGE MODEL
Entropy of changes
applied by
developers in a given
time period
Developer-related factors
DEVELOPER
MODEL
Number of developers
who modified a code
component in a give
time period
DEVELOPER
CHANGE BASED
MODEL
Developers structural
and
semantic scattering
BASIC CODE
CHANGE MODEL
Entropy of changes
applied by
developers in a given
time period
STUDY
EMPIRICAL
Performanceof developer-based prediction models
GOAL
Performance comparedwith the state of the art
and complementarity
GOAL
Performanceof developer-based prediction models
GOAL
Performance comparedwith the state of the art
and complementarity
Elish model Zhou model
EM CM
10 SYSTEMS
ORACLE
DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGES OF ALL CLASSES OF A SYSTEM
0 N
ORACLE
DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGES OF ALL CLASSES OF A SYSTEM
0 N
C1
ORACLE
DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGES OF ALL CLASSES OF A SYSTEM
0 N
C1
t
ORACLE
DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGES OF ALL CLASSES OF A SYSTEM
0 N
NUMBER OF CHANGES
MEDIAN
>=
CHANGE PRONE
ORACLE
DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGES OF ALL CLASSES OF A SYSTEM
0 N
NUMBER OF CHANGES
MEDIAN
<
NON-CHANGE PRONE
ORACLE
EVALUATION
METRICS
EVALUATION
METRICS
Precision
Recall
F-Mesure
AUC-ROC
Overlap
EVALUATION
METRICS
OVERLAP
Mi Mj
EVALUATION
METRICS
OVERLAP
Mi Mj
% of true positives correctly identified by both models
EVALUATION
METRICS
OVERLAP
Mi Mj
% of true positives correctly identified by both models
% change-prone classes correctly classified by Mi only and missed by Mj
CLASSIFIER
VALIDATION TECHNIQUES
TIME WINDOWS
CLASSIFIER
VALIDATION TECHNIQUES
LOGISTIC REGRESSION
TIME WINDOWS
CLASSIFIER
VALIDATION TECHNIQUES
TIME WINDOWS
CLASSIFIER
VALIDATION TECHNIQUES
TW1
HISTORY OF THE SYSTEM DIVIDED IN TIME PERIOD OF THREE MONTHS
TW2 TW3
TIME WINDOWS
CLASSIFIER
VALIDATION TECHNIQUES
HISTORY OF THE SYSTEM DIVIDED IN TIME PERIOD OF THREE MONTHS
WE TRAIN THE MODEL ON
TW1 TW2 TW3
TIME WINDOWS
CLASSIFIER
VALIDATION TECHNIQUES
HISTORY OF THE SYSTEM DIVIDED IN TIME PERIOD OF THREE MONTHS
TO TEST THE PERFORMANCE OF
TW1 TW2 TW3
TIME WINDOWS
CLASSIFIER
VALIDATION TECHNIQUES
HISTORY OF THE SYSTEM DIVIDED IN TIME PERIOD OF THREE MONTHS
TW1 TW2 TW3
TIME WINDOWS
CLASSIFIER
VALIDATION TECHNIQUES
HISTORY OF THE SYSTEM DIVIDED IN TIME PERIOD OF THREE MONTHS
TW1 TW2 TW3
RESULTS
0
25
50
75
100
BCCM DCBM DM
Performanceof developer-based prediction models
F-MEASUREOVERALL
class org.gjt.sp.BufferHistory
JEDIT
AUGUST OCTOBER
19 CHANGES BY ONE DEVELOPER!!!!
2009
DEVELOPER MODEL
NON-CHANGE PRONE
JEDIT
AUGUST OCTOBER
19 CHANGES BY ONE DEVELOPER!!!!
class org.gjt.sp.BufferHistory
36 MODIFICATIONS

OVER DIFFERENT PACKAGE!!!
High level of both semantic and structural scattering!
AUGUST OCTOBER
JEDIT
class org.gjt.sp.BufferHistory
36 MODIFICATIONS

OVER DIFFERENT PACKAGE!!!
AUGUST OCTOBER
JEDIT
class org.gjt.sp.BufferHistory
DEVELOPER CHANGE BASED MODEL
CHANGE PRONE
0
25
50
75
100
BCCM DCBM DM CM EM
Performanceof developer-based prediction models
F-MEASUREOVERALL
0
25
50
75
100
BCCM DCBM DM CM EM
0
25
50
75
100
BCCM DCBM DM CM EM
Performance comparedwith the state of the art
and complementarity
F-MEASUREOVERALL
OVERLAP
DCBM VS EM
DCBM∩EM
EM-DCBM
DCBM-EM
svg.io.SVGFigureFactory
RESPONSIBLE FOR PERFORMING THE
MAIN FUNCTIONALITY OF ENTIRE THE PROJECT!
JHOTDRAW
FREQUENTLY MODIFIED!
svg.io.SVGFigureFactory
RESPONSIBLE FOR PERFORMING THE
MAIN FUNCTIONALITY OF ENTIRE THE PROJECT!
JHOTDRAW
EVOLUTION MODEL
CHANGE PRONE
APACHE-ANT
DECEMBER FEBRAURY
ENTIRE RESTRUCTURING OF THE SYSTEM!
2006
APACHE-ANT
DECEMBER FEBRAURY
ENTIRE DESTRUCTING OF THE SYSTEM!
ELIMINATION OF
OLD CLASSES
REDISTRIBUSTION
OF RESPONSIBILITIES
2006
APACHE-ANT
DECEMBER FEBRAURY
ENTIRE DESTRUCTING OF THE SYSTEM!
EVOLUTION MODEL
2006
DBCM +8%F-MEASURE
Developer-based models work better
DBCM +8%F-MEASURE
than existing models
DBCM +8%F-MEASURE
Developer-based models work better
than existing models
Highly complementarybetween models
Combination
of these factors
Relation between “changy”
and buggy classes
Developer-Related Factors in Change
Prediction:An Empirical Assessment
May 22 and 23
Buenos Aires - Argentina
Gemma Catolino*, Fabio Palomba°, Andrea De Lucia*,
Filomena Ferrucci*, Andy Zaidman°
*University of Salerno, °Delft University of Technology

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Developer-Related Factors in Change Prediction: An Empirical Assessment