Differing Perspectives, Kevin Cleaver
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1) Agriculture growth is more effective at reducing poverty and hunger than overall economic growth. A 1% increase in agriculture growth reduces poverty by 2.7% on average. 2) Countries with the highest agriculture growth rates from 1990-2000s, such as China, Ethiopia, and Malawi, saw the largest reductions in poverty and malnutrition. 3) Key factors for effective agriculture investment include supporting farmers, rural employment, infrastructure, natural resources management, and enabling policies.
![The star Agriculture Growth Performers were the
star performers in poverty reduction
Countries with greatest Agriculture growth rate in Change in percentage of Change in percentage of
agriculture GDP growth 1990s and 2000s population living at population undernourished
rates in 1990s and 2000s (per cent per annum) below US$1.25 per day from 1990/1992 to
between 1998 and 2008 2004/2006
(percentage of (per cent)
population)
Average for developing
3.3 -20 n.a.
world as a whole
Algeria 5.2 n.a. n.a.
Belize 4.8 n.a. n.a
Benin 5.2 n.a. -9.0
Brazil 4.0 -9.7 -4.0
Burkina Faso 6.7 -49.7 -5.0
Cambodia 4.6 n.a. -13.0
Chile 4.3 -1.5 n.a.
China 4.0 -31.6 n.a.
Ethiopia 4.8 -46.0 -27.4
Laos 4.0 -37.2 -8.0
Malawi 5.7 -50.8 -16.0
Morocco 5.7 -6.3 n.a.
Mozambique 5.6 -45.9 -22.0
Paraguay 4.4 -16.9 -4.0
Peru 4.4 -6.7 -15.0
Rwanda 4.4 n.a. -5.0
Syria 5.6 n.a. n.a.
Tanzania 4.0 n.a. n.a.
Viet Nam 4.9 -45.1 -15.0
[1] IFAD Rural Poverty Report 2011, pp 249-253 based on FAOSTAT data
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Differing Perspectives, Kevin Cleaver
- 1. The Importance of Scaling up for Agriculture and Rural; and a Scaling Up Framework for the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) Kevin Cleaver Associate Vice President, Programmes Seas of Change Initiative Event, Scheveningen, The Hague, April 2012 1
- 2. Global Risks Landscape – 2012 2 ____________________________________________________ Source: World Economic Forum
- 3. Distribution of poverty in 2008 by region (millions) Sub-Saharan Africa - 382 million, 32% Rest of the world - 52 million, 4% Asia - 753 million, 64% ____________________________________________________ Source: Asian Development Bank (AsDB) 3
- 4. Distribution of undernourishment during 2006-2008 by region (millions) Latin America Rest of the World 47,5% 39 5% Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 568, 217, 25% 65% ____________________________________________________ Source: Asian Development Bank (AsDB) 4
- 5. ‹#›
- 6. Agriculture Growth, an Effective instrument for poverty reduction • A 1 per cent per annum increase in agriculture growth, on average leads to a 2.7 per cent increase in income of the lowest 3 income deciles in developing countries (World Bank, World Development Report, 2008; Agriculture for Development). • Agriculture is 2.5 to 3 times more effective in increasing income of the poor than is non-agriculture investment (World Development Report, 2008). • “Agriculture growth, as opposed to growth in general, is typically found to be the primary source of poverty reduction (IFPRI, 2007). • The contrary is also true; a decline in agriculture growth throws many poor people into poverty, and explains some of the increase in developing country poverty and hunger in 2008 and again in 2010 when food prices increased worldwide. 6
- 7. The star Agriculture Growth Performers were the star performers in poverty reduction Countries with greatest Agriculture growth rate in Change in percentage of Change in percentage of agriculture GDP growth 1990s and 2000s population living at population undernourished rates in 1990s and 2000s (per cent per annum) below US$1.25 per day from 1990/1992 to between 1998 and 2008 2004/2006 (percentage of (per cent) population) Average for developing 3.3 -20 n.a. world as a whole Algeria 5.2 n.a. n.a. Belize 4.8 n.a. n.a Benin 5.2 n.a. -9.0 Brazil 4.0 -9.7 -4.0 Burkina Faso 6.7 -49.7 -5.0 Cambodia 4.6 n.a. -13.0 Chile 4.3 -1.5 n.a. China 4.0 -31.6 n.a. Ethiopia 4.8 -46.0 -27.4 Laos 4.0 -37.2 -8.0 Malawi 5.7 -50.8 -16.0 Morocco 5.7 -6.3 n.a. Mozambique 5.6 -45.9 -22.0 Paraguay 4.4 -16.9 -4.0 Peru 4.4 -6.7 -15.0 Rwanda 4.4 n.a. -5.0 Syria 5.6 n.a. n.a. Tanzania 4.0 n.a. n.a. Viet Nam 4.9 -45.1 -15.0 [1] IFAD Rural Poverty Report 2011, pp 249-253 based on FAOSTAT data 7
- 8. Key ingredient of effective agriculture investment for scaling up • Supporting farm investment – investment in agricultural research and extension – rural finance – land tenure, land rehabilitation, land management • Rural employment generation and support for non-farm small businesses through investment in smallholder farming, agro-industry, marketing, input supply • Development of farmers’ organizations, to help manage village-level development • Infrastructure – rural water management and irrigation – rural roads, energy • Sustainable management of natural assets including forests, fisheries pasture land • Nutrition, household food security through rural education • Building decentralized public services in rural areas • 8 An enabling agricultural policy
- 9. Public (and donor) expenditure in agriculture, necessary, but not sufficient, for good agriculture growth Countries with greatest agriculture GDP Agriculture growth rate in Average public expenditure on agriculture as a growth rates in 1990s and 2000s 1990s and 2000s percentage of GDP 1995-2007 (per cent) (per cent per annum) Average for developing world as a whole 3.3 0.81 Algeria 5.2 n.a. Belize 4.8 n.a. Benin 5.2 n.a. Brazil 4.0 0.31 Burkina Faso 6.7 n.a. Cambodia 4.6 n.a. Chile 4.3 n.a. China 4.0 1.25 Ethiopia 4.8 1.94 Laos 4.0 n.a. Malawi 5.7 1.6 Morocco 5.7 0.96 Mozambique 5.6 n.a. Paraguay 4.4 n.a. Peru 4.4 n.a. Rwanda 4.4 n.a. Syria 5.6 2.3 Tanzania 4.0 n.a. Viet Nam 4.9 n.a. Other countries with high agriculture expenditure but lower agriculture growth India 3.1 0.8 Philippines 2.9 0.9 Tunisia 3.1 2.28 Thailand 2.4 1.47 Egypt 3.3 1.36 Bhutan 2.0 4.05 Sri Lanka 2.2 1.1 9
- 10. Peru- Key innovations being scaled up Local Resource Allocation Commitees (LARC) Competitions among beneficiaries for NRM and small businesses Direct transfer of public funds to community organizations Women’s saving Local talent accounts mobilized
- 11. Scaling up in Peru – Phase I 11
- 12. Scaling up in Peru – Phase 2 12
- 13. Scaling up in Peru – Phase 3 13
- 14. Scaling up in Peru – Phase 4 14
- 15. Scaling up in Peru – Phase 5 15
- 16. Why is it hard to scale up? • Scaling up project approaches relies on leveraging other sources of finance, particularly domestic. This can be difficult if there is not an existing track record of partnership. • A market-centered rather than a production-oriented approach has a greater chance of developing sustainable operations that benefit rural producers if win-win scenarios can be developed with agribusinesses. • It takes time to build capacity for governments and smallholder groups to negotiate and manage relationships (trust building) with agribusiness • The viability of smallholder agriculture value chains are not uniform across countries or types of market. This creates a challenge for developing cost effective and easily replicable models which can be scaled up across geographic areas and markets. • The technical capacities and governance structures of producer groups and farmer organizations are weak requiring support to move to scale • A challenge of scaling up is to improve monitoring and evaluation mechanisms to assess the actual impact and to demonstrate positive cost-benefits. • Best to plan for scaling up early in the design process rather than at the end 16
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