Disaster Risk and Climate Change in developing context

Learning Objectives
At the end of this session, the participant would be able
to:
 Explain trends in disaster impacts and possible
reasons for these
 Discuss links between climate change and
disasters
 Describe links of climate change to extreme
weather events
 Discuss sectoral impacts of climate related
disasters in Ethiopia

http://www.windows2universe.org/teacher_resources/online_courses/health/water_disease.html
The impact of hazardous
events is increasing as
global population
increases.
Additionally there is
evidence that weather
related natural hazards are
increasing in number and
intensity as climate
changes.

Source: IPCC
For the last two decades of the 21st
Century compared to the same
period of the 20th
Century. (DJF = December-January-February; JJA =
June-July-August)
Africa – Projected changes in Temperature (in terms of
0
C change)
and Precipitation (in terms of % change)

Top 10 countries with
highest proportion of affected
people over the total
population
(per 100,000 inhabitants)
Top 10 countries with the
highest absolute number of
affected people (in million)
1995 - 2015

Socioeconomic
development interacts
with natural climate
variations and human-
caused climate change to
influence disaster risk.
Increasing vulnerability,
exposure, or severity and
frequency of climate
events increases disaster
risk.
A changing climate leads
to changes in the
frequency, intensity,
spatial extent, duration,
and timing of extreme
weather and climate
events, and can result in
unprecedented extreme
weather and climate
events.
SREX (2012)
Climate, Disaster Risk and Development

A changing climate leads to changes in
extreme weather and climate events
SREX
(2012
)
Extreme weather includes unusual, severe or unseasonal weather.
These are events at the extremes of the historical distribution— that
has been observed in the past. Used to occur only 5% or less of the
time.

(a) effects of a simple shift of the
entire distribution toward a warmer
climate
The effect of changes in
temperature distribution on
extreme weather events
(b) effects of an increase in
temperature variability with no shift in
the mean
(c) effects of an altered shape of the
distribution, in this example a change
in asymmetry toward the hotter part
of the distribution
IPCC 2012

Rainfall
Jan 3 -9,
2011
Rainfall
Feb 6, 2011
Extreme Climate Event due to La
Nina Batticoloa, Sri Lanka, 2011
An unusual precipitation of 512 mm
from 3-9 January 2011 flooded
Batticoloa affecting 421,851
persons.
This was close to 3 times the
normal rainfall for January.
Another unusual precipitation of
about 400 mm was received around
6th
February.
This was more than three times the
average monthly rainfall for
February.
The resultant floods killed 13
people and affected more than
900,000.
The loss is estimated at Rs. 50
billion Sri Lanka Rupees.

Heat waves /
Extreme high
temperatures
Cold waves /
Extreme low
temperatures /
Snow storms
Intense storms /
Flooding / Heavy
rainfall
Severe or
prolonged
droughts
Tropical cyclones,
hurricanes and
typhoons
Some Extreme Events 2000-2010

Climate Change
Impacts
Extreme weather
(increasing frequency)
Temperature
increase
Sea level rise
Precipitation
changes

Sectoral Vulnerability -
Ethiopia

Crop simulation studies as well as econometric
studies of climate change impacts suggest a
negative impact on agricultural crop productivity
in Ethiopia on the order of 5 to 10 percent by
2030 due to changes in mean seasonal
temperature and precipitation and more severe
impacts towards the end of the century.
Ethiopia’s high level of unexploited water
resource management potential and low fraction
of irrigated land suggest that investments in
water resource management infrastructure
should be an integral component of a climate
change adaptation strategy.
World Bank Report No. 46946-ET
2008
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/
10986/8030/469460ESW0P1101B01PUBLIC1010P110947.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Economic Impacts of Climate Change
on Ethiopia

What the CCA practitioners can do:
• Enable and facilitate policy dialogues between CCA and HFA-related policy processes.
• Support analysis and interpretation of risk issues in non-environmentalb government
departments (in all sectors as all are exposed to natural hazards and, if vulnerable,
can lead to disasters).
• Share concrete examples and case studies of CCA initiatives with DRR colleagues.
• Use more narratives & examples and avoid conceptual jargon.
• Facilitate co-financing between CCA and DRR projects.
• Conduct economic valuation of CCA impacts in particular countries & sectors and
share info with DRR practitioners.

What the DRR practitioners can do:
• Conduct more scenario planning exercises (looking forward) rather than applying a
planning envelope that is based on historic hazard occurrences.
• Support analysis and interpretations of risks in non-DM government departments.
• Promote a multi-hazard approach rather than single-hazard to early warning systems
(EWS need to be hazard-specific but they can be develop, policy-wise, as a DRR
component with a multi-hazard approach).
• Support systematic management and analysis of hydro-meteorological data.
• DRR practitioners need to get acquainted and understand better CC and its potential
impacts (the increase in intensity and frequency of hazards happening in same areas; the
same of those happening in new areas where they didn’t happen before; and most
importantly the potential impact of new hazards, e.g., melting of glaciers, GLOFs, sea level
and sea temperature rise.)

Linking local to global actors and
responsibilities

Disaster Risk and Climate Change in developing context

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