DMI – We Can See the Future
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This document discusses predicting adoption curves for new mobile technologies. It notes that forecasts for adoption typically predict faster adoption than what actually occurs. Several examples are given of technologies like mobile TV, music, payments that were predicted to see faster adoption but saw limited usage. The document advocates identifying the problem and testing solutions with real customers on mobile devices to better understand if the solution solves the problem. It also recommends testing technology readiness and using researchers to help determine optimal pricing. The overall message is that mobile research is important to increase the chances of success for new mobile technologies and applications.
DMI – We Can See the Future
- 1. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY We can see the future 10 May 2016
- 2. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Topic: "Understanding the mobile tech adoption curve – what are the new opportunities for live, in the moment, research approaches?" What you will learn: How to predict success and adoption curve of new mobile technology.
- 3. About Me & Us
- 4. © 2015DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY About DMI & Me 4 Magnus Jern, Swedish Currently President DMI International Engineer, mathematician and a passion for solving problems Co-founder of 7 startups whereof first 4 were too early and 3 successful exits Good timing for mobile app trend and data visualisation Learned the hard way that we need objective research
- 5. © 2015DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY About DMI & Me 5 OPERATIONS & MAINTENANCE MARKETING & ENGAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT UX/UI DESIGN & TESTING BUSINESS INSIGHTS AND ANALYTICS DISCOVERY, SERVICE CONCEPT DESIGN & INNOVATION DMI International Started as Golden Gekko in Europe Early iPhone and Android apps with 100m+ downloads and $5Bn in revenue for our clients Thought leader in Mobile First, User Centric and Data Driven Design 400+ Mobile Specialists Clients incl. Virgin, Addison Lee, Bombardier, O2, Vodafone, Tesco, H&M, Ikea and Nike
- 6. Predicting adoption of mobile technology
- 7. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY How we forecast adoption vs what actually happens? Forecast Actual Conclusion: Technology adoption usually takes longer than we forecast but when it happens it goes faster than we expect
- 8. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Most enterprises and start- ups are really bad at predicting adoption of products Selfie-stick invented and launched in 1985 was a complete failure
- 9. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Then (2005): Mobile TV with Sky, CNN, MTV and all-you-can- consume music proposition with Sony with huge campaign. < 5% of enabled users signed up Now: Everyone consumes video and music on mobile. 100m+ users Insight: No testing was done on mobile devices (and they weren’t ready) Mobile TV & Music
- 10. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Then (2011-2014): Google and Paypal launched mobile wallets/payments in 2011 followed by Apple in 2014. Now: Early trials but limited recurring usage. Limited customer benefits. Starbucks most successful. < 5% of enabled users Insight: The solution to a problem is not better than plastic (yet) Mobile Payments
- 11. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY The hardest problem isn’t technical. It’s understanding the problem so that you can find a solution that people will use. But the technical solution is the most expensive
- 12. © 2015DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Project Duration Cost of Change DevelopmentDiscovery & Concept 100x It’s cheaper to throw away a post-it “Changing requirements are 100x more expensive during the end of a software project than the beginning.” IEEE Report, 2014 12 Why research is so important
- 13. How to increase the chance of success
- 15. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY 2a. Does the solution really solve the problem? Prototype and test on mobile devices with real customers.
- 16. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY 2b. Mobile Research Best Practice 1. Product feedback is at the centre of mobility - rate and review (App store reviews can easily be manipulated) 2. Continuous feedback is key to success 3. Mobile research needs to be short and to the point (Virgin example)
- 17. © 2015DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY 3. Test the technology
- 18. © 2015DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY 4. Test and decide optimal price point
- 19. How Mobile Research can help
- 20. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY Summary: Mobile Research 1. Understand and verify the problem 2. Test the solution on the target device with real customers 3. Be realistic about the technology readiness 4. Use professional researchers generally and specifically for pricing
- 21. THE FIRST INTEGRATED END- TO-END MOBILITY COMPANY IN THE WORLD. www.dminc.com DMI helps businesses organizations reinvent themselves through mobility. Contact us for more information.