Drivers, forest transitions and setting baselines at sub-national level
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This document discusses reference emission levels (RELs) in the context of REDD+ and land-based NAMA programs in Indonesia. It outlines that the forest transition concept can be used to categorize subnational areas in Indonesia and that different REL calculation techniques apply depending on the forest transition stage. It also notes that evaluating existing planned deforestation provides insight into feasible emissions. The document then discusses proposed REL methodologies for Indonesia, including forward-looking RELs based on development plans and driver modeling. It also provides lessons learned from Indonesia's experiences setting RELs, including the need for district-level action planning and improved guidelines, data, and monitoring.
Drivers, forest transitions and setting baselines at sub-national level
- 1. Drivers, forest transitions and setting baselines at sub-national level Sonya Dewi with Meine van Noordwijk, Peter Minang
- 2. OUTLINE • Reference Emission Levels (REL) in the context of REDD and land based NAMAs (Submission to SBSTA UNFCCC, February 28 2012) • Experiences and lessons learnt from Indonesia
- 3. REL IN THE CONTEXT OF REDD+ AND LAND-BASED NAMA
- 4. Key points • The forest transition’concept can be operationalized as typology of subnational entities within a large country; an example for Indonesia • Different REL calculation techniques apply to different stages of forest transition, at (sub)national level, to fulfill fairness and efficiency principles • Evaluation of existing (pre‐REDD discussion) planned deforestation’provides an indication of feasible emissions, as regards infrastructure, labour and capital requirements for conversion • The concept of reference level’of deforestation is non‐ operational unless a stringent ‘natural forest’definition can be agreed upon internationally; for example Indonesia's recent deforestation rate varies from ‐0.5 to 3% depending on the forest definition used. • Linear temporal and spatial extrapolation of historical emission trends is neither a realistic nor a fair basis for determining REL
- 5. Local circumstances • Variation within a country regarding land use changes and drivers of land use changes, and therefore emissions in the past • Variation wrt poverty, HDI, population density, regional income – needs for economic growth and equity • Variations in land and forest resources – stock
- 7. 60% Undisturbed forest; deforestation are lowest 20% Undisturbed forest; half LOF; degradation is highest <20% UF, degraded forest and estate; deforestation is highest 10% natural forest; 30% mixed tree, 15% estate and crop: deforestation >degradation, but lower than the above 10% natural forest; 30% estate, 15% crop land and mixed tree 40% crop land, small fraction of NF in PA, 20% estate, 15% mixed tree and settlement Forest transitions From landcover 1990, 2000, 2005
- 9. Forward Looking REL Historical REL Discounted Historical REL Historical RL Proposed methodology for REL
- 10. Forward looking scenario: Aligning baseline scenario and REL with development and land use planning
- 11. Land use/cover map of 2005 and existing plan of Papua
- 12. Baseline scenario and REL based on driver modelling
- 13. Example: Spatially explicit model of land use change • Modelling with Neural Network (Multilayer Perceptron) in IDRISI • Scope: Berau and East Kalimantan • Period: 2000 – 2020 • Proximate drivers: land suitability, elevation, spatial plan, distance to road, river, settlement, logging concession, forest plantation, distances to forest and changed area, population density
- 15. Key points • The forest transition’concept can be operationalized as typology of subnational entities within a large country; an example for Indonesia • Different REL calculation techniques apply to different stages of forest transition, at (sub)national level, to fulfill fairness and efficiency principles • Evaluation of existing (pre‐REDD discussion) planned deforestation’provides an indication of feasible emissions, as regards infrastructure, labour and capital requirements for conversion • The concept of reference level’of deforestation is non‐ operational unless a stringent ‘natural forest’definition can be agreed upon internationally; for example Indonesia's recent deforestation rate varies from ‐0.5 to 3% depending on the forest definition used. • Linear temporal and spatial extrapolation of historical emission trends is neither a realistic nor a fair basis for determining REL
- 16. Ex: Linear projection: historical rate of LULCC 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 Forest (ha) Year/period Deforestation rate = 0.1 Deforestation rate = 0.1 Area of 10,000 ha of forest over 10 year or 10 time periods
- 17. Key points • The forest transition’concept can be operationalized as typology of subnational entities within a large country; an example for Indonesia • Different REL calculation techniques apply to different stages of forest transition, at (sub)national level, to fulfill fairness and efficiency principles • Evaluation of existing (pre‐REDD discussion) planned deforestation’provides an indication of feasible emissions, as regards infrastructure, labour and capital requirements for conversion • The concept of reference level’of deforestation is non‐ operational unless a stringent ‘natural forest’definition can be agreed upon internationally; for example Indonesia's recent deforestation rate varies from ‐0.5 to 3% depending on the forest definition used. • Linear temporal and spatial extrapolation of historical emission trends is neither a realistic nor a fair basis for determining REL
- 18. EXPERIENCES AND LESSONS LEARNT FROM INDONESIA
- 19. Projection of Emission Reduction Reference Emission Level 2000 2010 2020 Mt/y Projection of Emission from Mitigation Scenario Historic emission for the base period: - Source of emissions and drivers of LUCC - Emission share Historic Emission Reference Emission Level: - Baseline scenario, incl drivers - Projected emission Mitigation activities: - Addressing dominant sources of emission and levers - Projected emission from mitigation
- 21. Transition Probability Matrix for setting baseline scenario
- 22. Reference level (cumm CO2-eq/ha to 2020)
- 23. Lessons learnt • Trainings were conducted with variable success rates nation-wide at province level • Progressive provinces have more initiative in collecting data and building capacities in setting baseline beyond historical projection • Parallel processes in developing provincial strategies of REDD+ in pilot provinces were hard to reconcile from the beginning but converge toward the end • Unsupported national action plan for mitigation is soon to be submitted as the Indonesian NAMA • There are still confusion between LAMA-NAMA nesting due to political consideration • Due to attribution, the direct activities and enabling conditions are mixed up • Scope of land-based NAMA coincides with REDD+: REL and MRV should be common between the two mechanisms
- 24. Recommendations • District level action planning should take place in the next round, since it is at the district level where the real on-the-ground implementation will be happening • Design iterative review and revise processes • Guidelines from the government is necessary to avoid confusion, including the nesting processes • Data improvement • Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting as part of MRV system
- 25. THANK YOU VERY MUCH TERIMA KASIH