Edward_ISC resentation_final
- 1. Edward Saja Sanneh*, Allen H. Hu, Chia-Wei Hsu and Momodou Njie Institute of Environmental Engineering and Management National Taipei University of Technology E-mail: edward.sanneh@gmail.com
- 2. Outline Introduction Impact of Climate Change Literature Review Methodology FAHP Results and Discussion Conclusion 2
- 3. Climate change • Temperature rise • Sea-level rise • Precipitation change • Droughts and floods Impacts on human and natural systems • Food and water resources • Ecosystem and biodiversity • Human settlements • Human health Socio-economic development paths • Economic growth • Technology • Population • Governance Emissions and concentrations • Greenhouse gases • Aerosols Adaptation Adaptation Mitigation Climate Change and Adaptation 3
- 4. Location map of The Gambia Study Area 4 Gambia
- 5. The IPCC (2007) projects - in Sub-Saharan Africa, warming is expected to be greater than the global average and in parts of the region rainfall will decline These anticipated climate changes pose great threats to food and water security, public health, natural resources, and biodiversity (McCarthyet al., 2001) http://carbon-based-ghg.blogspot.tw/2007/12/sub-suharan-africa-bears-brunt-of.html 5 Introduction
- 6. Impact of Climate Change in the Gambia July-August-September (JAS) rainfall less than 800mm on average has dramatically increased from 36 to 96 percent of the national territory since 1965 Climate records also reveal an increase of 0.40 degrees centigrade per decade or higher in the average minimum monthly temperatures across the country 6 Introduction
- 7. The area with average JAS rainfall less than 800mm has increased from 36 per cent to 93 per cent since 1965 Impact of Climate Change 7 Spatial patterns and temporal changes in rainfall of Gambia in the last sixty years
- 8. Change in rainfall statistics at Yundum (16º35'W, 13º27'N), Janjangbureh (14º46'W, 13º32'N) and Basse (14º13'W, 13º19'N) 8 Spatial patterns and temporal changes in rainfall of Gambia in the last sixty years Impact of Climate Change
- 9. Showing respectively increases of 0.67 and 0.40 degree Celsius per decade in the average minimum monthly temperatures Line slopes (i.e. rate of change) verified as statistically significant at the 95% confidence level 9 Trends in minimum temperature of Gambia in the past 40 years Impact of Climate Change
- 10. Erosion of beaches and potential breaching of barrier dunes on the Atlantic seaboard The degree of flooding will be greater in coastal areas (Dr. Malanding S. Jaiteh using Gambia 50000 GIS Database 2003 and ArcGIS Spatial Analysis Extension) 10 Area liable to permanent flooding in Gambia from a 100 cm sea level rise scenario Impact of Climate Change
- 11. Authors Year Title Roshan et al. 2010 Simulation of global warming effect on outdoor thermal comfort conditions Laukkonen et al. 2009 Combining climate change adaptation and mitigation measures at the local level Twomlow et al. 2008 Building adaptive capacity to cope with increasing vulnerability due to climatic change in Africa IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Smit and Wandel 2006 Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Eakin 2005 Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: Cases from Central Mexico Water/Africa et al.2004 The Africa water vision for 2025 : equitable and sustainable use of water for socioeconomic development 11 Literature Review
- 12. Authors Year Title Bank et al 2003 Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation Guranko et al. 2003 Introduction to the World Bank insurance practice: key lessons learned and the road ahead Azar and Schneider 2003 Are the economic costs of non-stabilizing the atmosphere prohibitive? Smit and Pilifosova 2001 Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity McCarthy et al. 2001 Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability FAO 2001 The state of food insecurity in the world IPCC 1995 IPCC Second Assessment Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Information relevant to interpreting 12 Literature Review
- 13. 13 National Adaptation Program of Action For The Gambia Methodology- Evaluation Framework
- 14. 14 This study used FAHP, a generic hierarchy model for assessing the relative importance to determine prioritization of measures and approaches to climate change adaptation discussed in Gambia’s NAPA The authors identified aspects that threaten the livelihood of communities through the weight of sectors discussed in the NAPA of the Gambia Overall, 25 measures of climate change adaptation were determined and categorized into five main aspects Methodology- FAHP
- 15. 15 Names Department Mr. Bernard Gomez Department of Water Resources/ NAPA Project Coordinator Mr. Momodou Sarr National Environment Agency/ GEF Operational Focal Point Dr. Almamy Camara Department of Parks & Wildlife Management/ UNCBD Focal Point Dr. Momodou Njie Blue Gold Solutions Mr. Lamin Kambi Department of Livestock Services Mr. Momodou Sowe Department of Water Resources Mr. Ebrima Ceesay Department of Agricultural Services Mr. Alpha Omar Jallow Department of Parks and Wild life Management Mr. Samba Conteh Department of State for Health Mr. Momodou Njie Department of State for Forestry and the Environment Mr. Kemo Ceesay Gambia Renewable Energy Office Mr. Amadou Saine Department of Fisheries Expert List for FAHP
- 16. Suppose you would like to choose between Item A and Item B, the one you like better in comparison with the other. Making a relative scale to measure how much you like the item on the left compared to the item on the right, shows as follows: (a) (b) 16 Methodology FAHP
- 17. 17 (a) Membership function of a triangular fuzzy number Membership function of linguistic variables for criteria comparison (b) Methodology FAHP
- 18. 18 Results and Discussions The study shows health as the highest priority area adaptation follow by forestry, water, energy and food
- 19. The overall adaptive capacity of Africa is low due to poverty, low educational levels, the weakening of social safety nets, high morbidity rates and the prevalence of severe illnesses (Ifejika Speranza et al., 2008) Adaptation is likely to play a key role in meeting the Millennium Development Goals, poverty reduction, and sustainable development http://eastern-uganda-environment.blogspot.tw/ 19 Results and Discussions
- 20. http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=23947 http://www.idrc.ca/EN/Programs/ Adaptation options/activities developed by researchers are not entirely new and call for wider deployment/application Recognizing the priority areas for adaptation to climate change is important because of the uncertainties of current weather, climatic outcomes and future climate change impacts Relatively few scientists have addressed cultural factors, such as people’s perceptions of climate change in Africa, which can nevertheless be quite relevant in the decision-making process 20 Results and Discussions
- 21. The anticipated effects of climate change pose great threats to food, water security, public health, natural resources and biodiversity Better understanding of how poverty in general is affected by climate change is needed to influence all efforts to adapt to climate change. http://ifrtd.gn.apc.org/en/about/Vision-Mission.phphttp://www.educationscotland.gov.uk/exploringclimatechange/takeaction/et hics.asp 21 Conclusions
- 22. The NAPA of the Gambia was the basis in formulating the FAHP model of this study, implying recognition of priority approaches for sustainability The application of FAHP can be used to initiate policy relating to climate change adaptation. The authors recommend that the creation of a national climate policy would be a big step towards enhancing climate change adaptation http://owni.eu/tag/ecology/ http://theconversation.edu.au http://www.deepakchopra.com/blog/view/756/global_warming_and_the_meaning_of_doom 22 Conclusions
- 23. Edward Saja Sanneh National Taipei University of Technology E-mail: edward.sanneh@gmail.com 23
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