Em econ 2ndlife
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The document discusses the potential implications of a future where human-level artificial intelligence and robot emulations become common. It suggests that within a few decades, physical robots and virtual emulations could surpass human capabilities, outperforming humans at most tasks. This would result in a rapid economic transition as robot labor replaces human workers. Billions of emulations could exist in massive city-states and clan-like organizations, with large inequalities in capabilities and resources. While enabling unprecedented abilities and productivity, such a future could also lack natural environments, personal freedom, and political participation compared to today.
Em econ 2ndlife
- 1. The Age Of Em: Work, Love, and Life when Robots Rule the Earth Economics, George Mason University Associate, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Blog: OvercomingBias.comRobin Hanson
- 2. Recent US GDP Growth
- 3. World Product, 1950-2006 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year WorldProduct
- 4. World Product, 1-2000 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1,000.0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year WorldProduct(subsistencebillions)
- 5. World Product, 10K BC-2K AD 0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 100.000 1,000.000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 Year WorldProduct(subsistencebillions) “Singularities”
- 6. 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 100,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 -2000000 -1500000 -1000000 -500000 0 500000 Year WorldProduct(subsistencehumans) World Product, 2 Million BC+
- 7. 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 RelativeBrainSize Millions of Years Bigger Brains Doubles in ~34 Myr
- 9. Figure 1. World Product, Data vs. Models 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 100,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 10,000,000,000,000 101001,00010,000100,0001,000,00010,000,000 Years before 2050 WorldProduct Hyperbolic Model Sum of Exp Model CES Combined Exp Model World Product Estimates Error 9.6% 2.0% 1.7%
- 10. Growth Mode Statistics Growth Mode Doubling Time (DT) DT Doubles Size Doubles Gene Brain ~375 Myr ~35 Myr - 3.5 ~26 ~16 Culture 225 Kyr 7.3 ~9 Farm 910 yr 7.9 7.6 Industry 15 yr 5.9 >9 ? < 1 mo? >5.9? ? Sample mode transition Next mode only lasts few years?
- 11. ? The Great Eras Log Growth Rate Log Years to 20X0
- 12. Ways To Make Smart Robots 1. Keep writing better software – AI experts: in last 20yrs went 5-10% to human – At that rate: 2-4 centuries to full AI – I just got 3 year grant to study this scenario 2. Super theory of intelligence (or learning) – But likely doesn’t exist, as w/ bacteria, cities 3. Port software from where it already exists
- 13. Needed To Emulate Brains 1 Computers (many, parallel) 2 Scan – fix, slice, 2D scan 3 Model each brain cell type
- 14. Depths of Emulation 1. Recreate functions model ? 2. Connected brain regions now 3. Averages of neurons, groups now 4. Spiking neural network 2019 5. + compartments, ion densities 2033 6. + metabolite, transmitter densities 2044 7. + protein, gene express densities 2048 8. + quaternary protein structure 2052 9. + internal cellular geometry 2063 10. + stochastic molecule positions 2111 11. + quantum interactions ? Sandberg & Bostrom,‘08, Whole Brain Emulation Roadmap at $1M hardware, (for $1B, -11yrs)
- 15. What If Cheap Emulations? Oxford Univ. Press http://ageofem.com
- 16. “History” 19.5% “Historical Fiction” 0.6% “Science Fiction” 1.0% Amazon Book Keyword % “Future” 0.9%
- 17. Three Kinds of Futurism 1. Project Current Trend 2. Trend-Disrupting Tech 3. Disrupt-Tech Result
- 18. Ring Of Science M CS P SS M H I E B G PC C BCM N HS SS – Social Science CS – Computer Science P – Physics E – Engineering H – Humanities PS – Psychology/Psychiatry N – Brain Research M – Mathematics PC – Physical Chemistry C – Chemistry G – Earth Sciences BC – Biochemistry B – Biology I – Infectious Disease M – Medicine HS – Health Services Klavans & Boyack. 2009. “Toward a Consensus Map of Science.” JASIST 60(3), 455-476.
- 19. Ring Of Science M CS P SS PS H I E B G PC C BCMD N HS SS – Social Science CS – Computer Science P – Physics E – Engineering H – Humanities PS – Psychology/Psychiatry N – Brain Research M – Mathematics PC – Physical Chemistry C – Chemistry G – Earth Sciences BC – Biochemistry B – Biology I – Infectious Disease M – Medicine HS – Health Services Klavans & Boyack. 2009. “Toward a Consensus Map of Science.” JASIST 60(3), 455-476.
- 21. Keys Under Lamp Post
- 22. Efficiency Predicts Old Farms • What crops on what land, when sow, reap • Which animals graze on what • Road paths irrigation paths • Rotate over what crops how often • Where, when to fish, hunt & gather what • Which food eat now vs. preserve for later
- 23. My Method Academic consensus What is, not should be Focus on robots, not humans Next big era, not eras after After transition, once things settle down Competition, low-regulation (= supply & demand) Mostly-opaque ems: No merge, splice, partial, or big changes in psychology Rest of Talk: Many Implications
- 25. Labor Supply & Demand Quantity Price wage1 Supply of Human Workers Demand for Labor wage3 wage2 New Demand for Labor Supply of Robots
- 26. Four Ways To Grow
- 27. 1. More Machines
- 28. 2. More Humans
- 30. 4. More Robots
- 31. Space Is Too Slow
- 33. Stems Have More Descendants Specialized, Complex Simple, General Applies to: • Cells • Species • Products • Software Time
- 36. Safes Keep Secrets “Why Must We Invade Iraq?” Time Citizen Y/N Leader
- 37. Humans Eclipsed
- 38. Humans Retire
- 39. Ems Feel Human Smart Hard- Working More elite than: • Olympic gold • Nobel prize • Billionaire • Pulitzer • Oscar Smart, conscientious, extravert, agreeable, gritty, non-neurotic, work-oriented, focused, sleepless, larks, cooperative, peak-aged, patient, married, religious
- 40. Ems Differ
- 41. Hunter/Gatherer Farmer/Herder More: varied diet, varied exercise, travel, tolerance, homosexuality, sex talk, sex promiscuity, leisure, mind-challenging work, sharing, envy, egalitarian, divorce, genders equal, play, music, dance, art, stories, trust, honesty, group discussion, lead by consensus, save nature More: dense, polite, clean, order, stability, work hours, kids, discipline of kids, marriage, classes, rulers, authority, slavery, war, income inequality, ranking, domination, brag, property, money, trade, crime, honor, shame, self-sacrifice, self- control, explicit social rules, moralizing gods
- 43. Robot Life Plan Retire Work Work Train Work Retire Retire Time ∞ ∞ ∞
- 44. • Software races • Manage tiny fast systems • Fast bosses • Leisure, so back on job fast • Manage big slow systems • Remember a long history • Interact with humans • Cheap retirement Fast Slow
- 45. Fast Slow
- 46. 16 1 1/16 1/256 1/4K 1/66K 1/1M 1/17M 1/270M 1/4B 1/69B 1/1T 256 4K 66K 1M 17M Human Speed Kilo-ems Milli-ems Micro-ems Mega-ems Nano-ems Pico-ems More “Ghostly” host meetings best location win argue bosses richer
- 47. Software Intensity Log Price Time Human Wages Serial Hardware Parallel Hardware Em Wages Hardware per software engineer 1950 2000 ? ??
- 48. City Scaling If double, per person: −10% roads, cables +21% patents +12% crime +34% traffic +10% value Big Dense Robot Cities!
- 49. Fractal Infrastructure hollow:vµ f 2/3 fractal: vµ f exp[2 ln3ln f -1 volume%µ ND2 L-2 DP µ NLm1 or 2 D-4 or -5 N =1+(3 or 7)log2 Lt-1 mintC1 = pt +qat-1 Þ pt = qat-1 minRC2 = C1 log2 R+qR-1 Þ R = ln2(q / 4ap)1/2 Time StepAdiabatic Reversible Computing Fractal Cooling Pipes Fractal Struts t R
- 50. x1 Talk: Earth+ Height: 1.7m Career: 100 yr x16 Talk: 940km Height: 11cm Career: 6 yr (billions fit in a skyscraper) Talking Circles x256 Talk:60km Height: 7mm Career: 5 mo x16M Talk: 1m Height: 100nm Career: 3 min x4100 Talk: 4km Height: 0.4mm Career: 9 day
- 51. Inequality Today 2015 Firm – α ~ 1 Product – α < 1 City, States – α ~ 1 Family – α ~ 2 Wealth – α ~ 1.4 max holds 0.02%, ~$50B α > 1, most in small bigsmall α < 1, most in big α = 1, all sizes same 1000 α > 1 α > 1 α > 1 α ~ 2
- 52. Em Inequality α ~ 1.4 α > 1, most in small α < 1, most in big α = 1, all sizes same bigsmall Firm – α ~ 1 Product – α < 1 City-States – α < 1 most in <10? Family – α < 1 most in ~300? Wealth – α ~ 1 (live long) max holds 3%, ~$100T? 2070?2015 α ~ 2 α ~ 1 α < 1 α ~ 1 0.02%
- 53. Key Stats • Start by ~2100, transition <5 yr, lasts <2yr • Economy doubles every week to month • Typical em speed: ~1000 times human – Range: 10-9 to 106 time human • Most ems in < ~300 clans, each millions+ • Billions of ems in a few big city-states
- 54. • No pain, hunger, grit, disease, aged bodies • Less death terror • Vast fast population • Huge intricate cities • Great art, story, drugs • Extreme ability, virtue • More stable world • Subsistence wages, long work hours • Easy spur “ends” • ≠ wealth, speed class • Big bureaucratic firms • Little nature, space • More rulers, less vote • More religion, ritual
Editor's Notes
- #14: Goes by the name “uploads” and “whole brain emulation”. Others focus on technical feasibility, timing, philosophy of identity and consciousness. I’ll focus on social science.
- #15: Most discussions of ems so far talk about: is it me? Is it conscicous? is it possible? When would it happen? I’m going to what neglected intsead
- #24: I’m not trying to be creative or contrarian, just to look at something neglected
- #25: Immortality – but can most afford?; Travel – transmit to new body (but is secure?); Nature – don’t need ecosystems to survive Copies!; Train once, use many; each job few sources; Population explosion, Rapid growth economy doubles monthly? Wages fall to near hardware cost; only Draconian global law can stop Standard econ growth models say our growth limited by rate at which grow labor, diminishing returns to capital
- #26: So wages are low, near subsistence. Also, economy is more competitive, punishing inefficiency more. We use that a lot in analysis here.
- #40: Inside, they feel just as human as you do Remember a human life, retain human styles; love, gossip, argue, sing, play, laugh, … Most ems are of the few best suited humans; Smart, conscientious, workaholic; First mover gains, few kids, uneven gender; If most from <300 humans, a forager sociality Humans may not see ems as conscious, or “me”; But same implications, a few to copy is plenty
- #41: More alienated world (as were farms, factories); More work, less sleep, more inequality; Loyalty tests via sims, shallow mind reading Leisure, office work in virtual reality; No pain, hunger, grime, disease; Less need for eat, clean, medicine More variety in physical bodies, mind speeds; Hardware cost ~ linear in speed to ~10 million x!
- #47: Base speed no more than one millionth human speed, and maybe less than trillionth!
- #51: Can talk within prior level’s circle with 3.2sec delay. Within 2 prior levels circle with 51 sec delay