Estimates and Affinity Estimation
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This document discusses estimation in agile software development. It defines an estimate as a guess based on available information about the size or cost of something. Common problems with estimates include optimism bias, lack of information, and uncertainty. Estimates are used to set team commitments, size stories appropriately, and understand how much work can be completed in a sprint through velocity. The document demonstrates affinity estimation by having volunteers estimate and group cards representing tasks.
Estimates and Affinity Estimation
- 1. Estimates and Affinity Estimation Thursday, October 17, 13 1
- 2. John Sextro @jcsextro Husband and father of 4 My first agile project was in 1999 at Monsanto Independent consultant and owner of 9 Principles On contract with Savvis as a Scrum Master and Coach Host and Executive Producer of 2 Podcasts This Agile Life, ThisAgileLife.com @thisagilelife iOhYes, iOhYesPodcast.com @iohyespodcast Blogging since 2004 at AgileEvidence.com Thursday, October 17, 13 2
- 3. Topics • Estimates - What, Why & How • Affinity Estimation Demonstration John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 3
- 4. What’s an estimate? Definition from Merriam-Webster noun: a guess that you make based on the information you have about the size, amount, etc., of something. verb: to give or form a general idea about the value, size or cost of something. John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 4
- 5. GUESS John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 5
- 6. Estimates problems • The optimism bias. • An estimate is a guess. • You never know enough. • Murphy’s law. John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 6
- 7. How long to estimate? • 5 stories / hour? • 10 stories / hour? • 15 stories / hour? • 30 stories / hour? • 45 stories / hour? Is the time you spend estimating valuable? John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 7
- 8. Why Estimate? • We want the team to commit to complete and deliver a known set of stories / features. • To ensure that stories are actionable and sized appropriately. John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 8
- 9. What do we need? • A general idea of how much work can be done in a sprint. (Velocity) • A set of prioritized and sized stories. John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 9
- 10. No Estimates • How would things be different if you didn’t estimate? John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 10
- 11. Are there other reasons to estimate? • Estimates are a super fun way to pass time at work. • I don’t have enough work and estimating makes it seem like I’m really busy. • My boss just spent $1,500 to get a certification for estimation facilitation. John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 11
- 12. How do you estimate? John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 12
- 13. Demonstration • Estimates for traveling to other cities and countries. • I need 6 to 8 volunteers. John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 13
- 14. Affinity Estimation Instructions • • Each person takes a turn. • If you don’t know where to post it, put it past the last card on the right. • When the cards are all posted and no one wants to move any cards, you are done. During your turn you can move a card or post a new card on the wall. John Sextro Thursday, October 17, 13 14
- 15. Thanks. • • Thursday, October 17, 13 Feel free to contact me • • Twitter: @jcsextro Email: john.sextro@gmail.com Podcasts • • This Agile Life, ThisAgileLife.com iOhYes, iOhYesPodcast.com 15