EU exit and financial services report_FINAL (1)

London Assembly Economy Committee I 1
Economy Committee
Holding the Mayor to account and investigating
issues that matter to Londoners
EU exit and financial services November 2016
 The financial services sector is the lifeblood of the London and
UK economies.
 London is Europe’s financial hub and a leading global financial
centre.
 EU membership has brought the financial services sector two
major advantages: access to skilled migrant workers and a
free passport to sell products and services across the region’s
single market.
 But following the EU referendum result, both of these are at
risk.
 And while EU exit may offer new opportunities in non-EU
markets and other financial services, the risk of losing free
access to the single market outweighs them.
 London’s financial and related professional services are a
strategic asset for both the UK and the EU and any future EU
exit deal must recognise that.
London is a global financial powerhouse. But after the EU exit
vote, its status as a financial services world leader is under
threat. London and the UK cannot afford to risk, arguably, their
most successful economic sector.
The London Assembly Economy Committee has taken evidence from
representatives from the financial services sector and industry experts
to understand the risks associated with EU exit for the sector.
This short report sets out these risks, explores what the future might
hold for the City, and considers how the Mayor can respond to protect
its success.
The London Assembly Economy Committee is holding a series of
meetings to explore the effect of EU exit on key sectors in London. If
you have any comments or would like to find out more you can get in
touch via matt.bailey@london.gov.uk.

Economy Committee
The importance of financial services to the London and UK
economies
The financial services sector generates a substantial share of UK
economic activity. The financial and insurance sector contributed eight
per cent (approximately £133 billion) of the total value created in the UK
economy in 2014 (measured using nominal gross value added (GVA)i
).1
London accounts for more than half the UK’s total nominal GVA in the
financial and insurance services industry.2
Other cities also have
significant financial services sectors, including Manchester and
Edinburgh, and there are important links between them all.
Financial services are one of our best export industries. The sector
generates a large trade surplus for the UK. Financial services together
with insurance and pension services ran a £55 billion trade surplus in
2015, almost two thirds of the overall trade surplus in services. This
trade surplus helped to offset some of the trade deficit created by other
sectors. However, the UK still runs a trade deficit overall, which was £39
billion in 2015.3
The financial services industry is an important source of tax revenue. In
2014-15, HMRC calculated the ‘banking sector’ contributed seven per
cent of the £291 billion collected from taxes on earnings and onshore
corporation tax.4
According to the City of London Corporation, the
i
“Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure of the increase in the value of the economy
due to the production of goods and services.” (ONS)
financial services sector as a whole generated more than £60 billion in
tax revenues in 2014-15.5
While the financial services sector is not a major employer in the UK, it
does support many jobs in other related professional services.
Financial services together with insurance and pension
services made up almost two thirds of the UK's overall
trade surplus in services in 2015
Financial, insurance
& pension services
£55bn
Other
services
£33bn
Source: ONS, Pink Book
2016
UK total trade surplus in
services in 2015

Economy Committee
London’s role as a leading global financial centre
London is Europe’s financial hub and a leading global financial centre.
London consistently ranks top of the Global Financial Centres Index,
ahead of New York, Hong Kong and Singapore.6
Its share of the global
financial services sector is large and well diversified, both in terms of
markets and activities. It employs 360,000 people and is home to
over 250 foreign banks; the highest concentration in any financial
centre.7
London is Europe’s leading centre for management of hedge
funds, sovereign wealth funds and private equity funds. It is also the
European headquarters for many companies: 40 per cent of the top 250
companies have their global or regional headquarters in London. In
contrast, Paris, the second most important host city, has eight per cent.8
The success of London’s financial services industry can be attributed to
a number of factors. These influences include its legal system, the
English language, established complementary services industries and a
flexible labour market in comparison to many other EU countries.
London’s success is also partly due to EU membership which has
brought the financial services sector two major benefits: access to
skilled migrant workers (nearly 11 per cent of the City’s 360,000 workers
come from elsewhere in the EU9
) and a free passport to sell products
and services across the region’s single market. Both of these benefits
are at risk from the UK’s exit from the EU.
The risks to the financial services sector following EU exit
The UK financial services industry relies heavily on passporting rights.
Data released by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) show nearly
5,500 UK-registered companies use passports to access the EU market.10
According to Lord Hill, the former EU Commissioner for Financial
Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, passporting has
allowed British banks to make over €1,000 billion of loans and to take
out a similar amount of euro deposits.11
“Passporting allows firms in one EU member state to trade
across the entire Single Market. This arrangement reduces the
costs and administration that would otherwise be involved and
means UK financial firms can offer services across the whole of
the EU without requiring further authorisations or meeting local
regulations (for example, requirements on capital or liquidity).
Passporting rights also avoid the need to set up a subsidiary as a
separate legal entity, which would require its own governance
and risk management.” Bank of England12
The UK has become a major hub for non-EU financial services firms
because of the benefits of passporting. Typically, non-EU firms wishing
to supply financial services in the EU would need to establish a
subsidiary in the EU and would also need EU authorisation to confirm
the home-country regulation is “equivalent”. Once set up, companies
can operate cross-border on the basis of this single licence. Passporting

Economy Committee
gives firms a free choice under EU single market rules for how they
organise their business, and a clear legal framework for how they do
business. For this reason, a number of non-EU financial services firms
have set up significant offices in London. According to the US
International Trade Commission, 40 per cent of US-owned foreign
affiliates’ sales of financial services are located in the UK.13
The removal of passporting could create significant upheaval for UK
and non-EU firms with subsidiaries in the UK. If passporting rights were
removed UK financial firms would have to establish subsidiaries within
the EU. And non-EU (especially Swiss and US) firms with subsidiaries in
the UK to service the EU would need to establish an EU subsidiary to
service EU customers. This could mean non-EU firms moving their
existing subsidiary from the UK to somewhere else in the EU.14
The costs from removing passporting without an adequate
replacement could also be sizeable. Research by TheCityUK suggests
around £20 billion of EU-linked revenue could be at risk.15
And the removal of passporting rights would not just hurt the UK. The
FCA data shows 8,000 companies registered elsewhere in the EU use
passports to access the UK. Some of these firms use passporting to run
their businesses as “branches” in the UK, rather than as separate
capitalised subsidiaries.16
While passporting is crucial to large parts of the financial services
sector, not everyone will lose out. According to a report by Open
Europe, around a fifth of the banking sector’s annual revenue is tied to
the passport, but other sectors such as asset management and
insurance are much less reliant.17
The changing landscape may also
improve conditions for UK-based retail banks. Banks are required to
ring-fence their retail operations by 2019. According to Jayne-Anne
Gadhia, Chief Executive of Virgin Money, UK-only retail banks are likely
to be in a stronger position as they will not be affected by the
complexity of the future. As she told the committee, there will be
opportunities for UK retail banks to give “a better service, better
products and more innovative solutions for customers.”18
Passporting rights could be retained if London can show its regulatory
regime is “equivalent” to the EU’s. A clause in the second iteration of
the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID 2) provides
financial firms outside the EU with a means to provide services to
customers inside it. The provision in question allows financial firms from
outside the EU to offer trading, brokerage and underwriting services to
European institutional (but not retail) clients, as long as the regulatory
regime where the firm is based is deemed “equivalent” to that of the
EU.
However, the equivalence provision has not yet been tested. The
MiFID 2 does not come into force until early 2018. The decision rests
with the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), based in
Paris. There is evidence the decision could be a protracted process. A
similar clause in the European Market Infrastructure Regulation, which
governs the trading and clearing of derivatives, was tested between

Economy Committee
America and EU. It took over three years before American regulations
on clearing-houses were deemed equivalent by the ESMA.19
And even if London did secure equivalence, it can’t be guaranteed in
the future. As Miles Celic, Chief Executive of the TheCityUK, explained to
the committee, equivalence is a static determination, and EU
regulations will continue to change. While London could be equivalent
in the short-term, it may not be in the future. The UK would also have
little say on any changes to regulation once it is outside the EU. More
likely, the City and government will have to come up with creative ways
to mitigate the loss.
Could EU exit free UK financial services from EU regulations?
The evidence the financial services sector has been held back by EU
regulations appears to be limited. Campaigners in favour of leaving the
EU said removing some regulations would boost London’s financial
sector. But, as the committee heard, there was unlikely to be any
advantage in lighter touch financial regulation as standards are
increasingly set at an international level. And as firms have looked for
higher standards of regulation following the 2007/8 financial crash,
London has increasingly been seen as a beacon of regulatory expertise.
According to Professor Niamh Moloney of the London School of
Economics, the UK has been an important expert and influence on how
EU law has developed. To dismantle this knowledge base would be a
retrograde step.20
“Whether or not we want equivalence, whether or not
we want passporting - we would throw away regulation
at our peril.
Jayne-Anne Gadhia, Chief Executive, Virgin Money.21
Protecting the status of EU talent
The financial services sector’s ability to recruit skilled workers from
other European countries could be restricted if new immigration
controls are introduced. Approximately, one in ten of the City’s 360,000
workers come from other EU countries.22
The Government has sent mixed messages on how EU migration will
be managed in the future. The Home Secretary has suggested skilled EU
migrants may have to apply for visas with conditions similar to those
placed on migrants from outside the EU. But the Chancellor has said
high-skilled migrants could be exempt from controls. He said the
Government would use control over free movement “in a sensible way
that will facilitate the movement of highly-skilled people between
financial institutions and businesses to support investment in the UK
economy."23
The uncertainty around immigration controls could be preventing
companies from hiring and deterring EU workers from applying for
jobs in the UK. While it may be too soon to assess the full effect of EU
exit on recruitment, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research,
there was a 14 per cent downturn in jobs advertised in the financial

Economy Committee
services sector in London in July and August compared with May and
June.24
Any new immigration system should not automatically exclude people
without job offers. The committee heard about the importance of a
skills-focussed system that recognised the value of human capital. For
example, many talented coders from the EU are coming to the UK and
setting up in Silicon Roundabout or Shoreditch where they are
developing apps or algorithms that can help create or grow businesses.
This kind of entrepreneurship is not easily captured by a points-based
immigration system. A skills-based immigration system will be more
successful in the long-term as opposed to one that is, according to Miles
Celic, “simply about moving people around into individual jobs that
already exist.”25
London could look to develop its own visa system to allow skilled
workers to work freely in the capital. The City of London Corporation26
and the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry27
have both
published reports on the potential for regional visas, and the Mayor has
said he will consider the proposals. Variations of regional work permits
have been used in other countries. Shanghai recently made it easier for
foreign citizens to gain permanent resident status, as part of a package
of policies aimed at establishing the city as a leading innovation
economy. And in Canada, while provinces must follow national
immigration minimum criteria, they can set their own policies for the
migrants they want to attract.28
A visa system was also put in place in
Scotland in 2004 to allow foreign citizens who studied there to stay for
two years, but the scheme ended in 2008. A Scottish government cross-
party group said last year the work visa should be reintroduced but the
Home Office has said there are no plans to do so.29
What might the future hold for the City outside the EU?
London could expand its global reach to protect it from the fallout of
the UK leaving the EU. The committee heard how there were significant
growth opportunities in Asia, Africa and Latin America, particularly as
these markets become more developed and consume more services,
where London is a global leader. However, being outside of the EU
would not in itself make expanding in these markets any easier or more
likely.
Some industry experts have suggested London could become the
“Greater Guernsey” by expanding off-shore finance for global, non-EU
markets. But operating on a smaller scale could result in London losing
its competitive edge. Martin Sandbu, of the Financial Times, has
suggested London could thrive if its operations were scaled back, but
has also raised concerns about whether this would “dry out some of the
liquidity pool and cluster advantages that make the City so competitive
outside Europe.”30
He also questioned whether non-European
jurisdictions such as China would continue to do business with London
under these terms.
EU exit could provide a spur to strengthen London’s position as a hub
for Fintech. Companies such as Transferwise, Zopa and Funding Circle

Economy Committee
are transforming how companies and individuals raise, lend and transfer
money. Banks are increasingly competing for talent with Google,
Facebook and start-ups as artificial intelligence and robotics transforms
the world of work. A report by Ernst & Young put London as the global
capital for Fintech31
, and guests agreed there was an opportunity to
build on its expertise in Fintech to mitigate any losses from EU exit. They
also agreed there was an opportunity for the Mayor to encourage
entrepreneurship in Fintech development through educational and skills
support.
“Fintech is an enormous potential advantage for the
UK. We are a centre of global expertise and
innovation.”32
Miles Celic, Chief Executive, TheCityUK
And what should the Mayor’s role be?
The Mayor has been a strong advocate for protecting the City. He
recognises, as this committee does, the strategic importance of
London’s financial and related professional services as a high value asset
for the UK economy. He needs to keep making the case that this is not
just about protecting jobs in London but in other cities with financial
and other related professional services too.
The Mayor has set out his asks to government: a guarantee that EU
citizens already in the UK can stay once the UK leaves the EU; a
commitment to remaining in the single market; the retention of
passporting rights; and a seat at the negotiating table for London in
Brussels. This committee broadly supports these asks. While passporting
is a complex issue, with no single financial passport used across the
financial services sector, this committee would certainly support the
retention of passporting rights for the UK’s banking sector, given the
enormous tax revenues it generates for public services across the
country. Similarly, the committee would support the need for the
closest possible access to the single market when the UK leaves the EU.
Protecting the status of skilled EU workers in the UK is vital. The mixed
messages on future immigration controls from the government have not
been helpful, and we would urge the Mayor to continue to press for
clarity on this issue.
At the same time, this committee recognises the landscape will
undoubtedly change for the financial services sector when the UK leaves
the EU. We have heard how London has an opportunity to strengthen its
position as a hub for Fintech. We would urge the Mayor to explore how
he can support the development of a skills strategy that can help this
growing sector in the future.

Economy Committee
Endnotes
1
Regional Gross Value Added (Income Approach): December 2015 (ONS 2016)
2
Regional, sub-regional and local gross value added estimates for London, 1997-2014
(GLAE, 2016)
3
The Pink Book: 2016 (ONS, 2016)
4
The EU Single Market: The Value of Membership versus Access to the UK (IFS, 2016)
5
Total Tax Contribution of UK financial services eighth edition (City of London
Corporation, 2016)
6
Global Financial Centres Index 20 (2016)
7
Key facts about the UK as an international finance centre (TheCityUK, 2015)
8
London crowned business capital of Europe (London Futures, 2014)
9
Census 2011, CityUK
10
Letter from Financial Conduct Authority to the Treasury Select Committee Chair, 17
August 2016
11
Commissioner Hill`s speech at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International
Affairs
12
EU membership and the Bank of England
13
14
15
The impact of the UK's exit from the EU on the UK-based financial services sector
(Oliver Wyman, 2016)
16
Banks fear chill wind of EU ‘passport’ freeze The Financial Times (2 September 2016)
17
How the UK’s financial services sector can continue thriving after Brexit (Open
Europe, 2016)
18
Transcript of Economy Committee, 11 October 2016
19
Financial tonic The Economist (9 July 2016)
20
21
22
Census 2011, CityUK
23
European bankers will be exempt from migration curbs after Brexit The Daily
Telegraph (8 September 2016)
24
Slump in finance sector recruitment in aftermath of Brexit vote (IPPR, 2016)
25
26
Regional visas - a unique immigration solution? (PwC, 2016)
27
Permits, points and visas: securing practical immigration for post-Brexit London
(LCCI, 2016)
28
We should regionalise immigration decisions – starting with a London visa City AM
(26 August 2016)
29
Solution to student work visa row 'possible' BBC News, (3 March 2016),
30
Can the City of London thrive after Brexit? The Financial Times (9 July 2016)
31
UK Fintech on the cutting edge: an evaluation of the international Fintech sector,
(Ernst & Young, 2016)
32

EU exit and financial services report_FINAL (1)

More Related Content

What's hot (16)

Viewers also liked (20)

Similar to EU exit and financial services report_FINAL (1) (20)

EU exit and financial services report_FINAL (1)